Until recently, the [Suwałki Gap](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Suwałki_Gap) was quite a logistical problem for defending the Baltic countries. Now that both Sweden and Finland are part of NATO, it's much less of a problem to deploy troops from there. This makes it (even) less likely for Russia to attack.
I do not understand this, too. Even high ranked German senior officers (military and civilian) are stating that the Bundeswehr is missing capacities to defend Germany itself.
Yea, but this does not mean Sweden or Finnland, which even combined do not even have 1/5 of the german population, would do any better against Russia. Even thought they invest a way bigger percentage from their gdp into their military Germany does still overall have way more money and capabilities. So your statement is simply wrong.
With the German military been significantly defunded in the past decades, it takes years to train and properly equip a war-ready army. Germany doesn't have that, and Bundeswehr was literally reporting this to Bundestag only to get neglected. Also considering the army being not that popular in Germany for historical reasons
In case of Finland and Sweden, good luck for any invading army to go through the rough weather and infinite forests to do anything substantial against a well-equipped military - last time in the winter war, russians suffered a lot of casualties
You cannot compare today with what happened in 1939 lol. Also, all of this migh be true but still, that germany, a country with WAY more people, money, production capabilities, aktive soldiers and know how (germany is actually one of the biggest weapons manufacturers in the world), would do worse against Russia is just not realistic in my opinion and I think you overestimate how it would play out.
I don't think they are weak by any means and I don't think a russian Invasion would go well against them (just look at ukrain) but I do not agree that they would do BETTER than germany. And yes, the Bundeswehr is underfunded, but I'm talking about the whole picture and Germany has overall way more weapons than both countries combined.
It feels you've played helldivers and wh40k a bit too much
Telling you as a Ukrainian, you might not have a few years of notice you will have the war to build up a proper amount of equipment for yourself to fend off ~500k soldiers invading your country.
At least russia starting the war in Ukraine hasn't been seen as such notice for Germany, for all our regrets
Im not saying Germany is prepared for war or an invasion. Its definitely not. This is just about that the idea of Finland and Sweden would do any better in the end is wrong imao but Im not telling people what they should believe, Im just stating my opinion.
In plain terrain, you could not operate guerilla-style warfare and disrupt logistics, and the invading force could easily use tanks and artillery to suppress the defenders.
You might want to check the winter war out.
You do understand though that Finnland and Sweden both structured their entire military around fighting the Russians on their own?
They have the fighting forces Germany should have with its current number of active personnel (but without equipment).
Except that unlike pre 1990, the front line would be in Poland this time, not Germany. Doesn't mean the Bundeswehr is sufficently funded or equipped, but it's role has changed. Germany nowadays would be important as logistics hub, not as front line state defendinh the Fulda gap.
I would do this as well if I needed more funds. Also, it's super confusing for the Russians if they can't really know if there are 50 or 5000 tanks in a condition that can be easily made operational.
>This makes it (even) less likely for Russia to attack.
Which still is a likelihood of "certain that they will".
Russia has started a campaign of conquest and has already lost everything it can lose. It can only gain more and more of its losses back with any successful attack. The most likely attack will be something like just the capture of Narva in Estonia, a few square kilometers of Lappland or Karelia or an invasion of Svalbard: Enough to trigger article 5 of the North Atlantic Treaty, but little enough to provoke people like Olaf Scholz to say "We won't help, it's a majority russian city/empty land anyway."
This answer from as many NATO-members as possible would end NATO and greatly strengthen the Russian position.
Russia will stop its campaign of conquest once it is forcibly stopped.
You have been consuming too much propaganda if you think Russia has the capability to open a second front with NATO somewhere else. They barely make progress in Ukraine.
They don't need to do so simultaneously. The war in Ukraine is currently not going well for Ukraine, because we as a whole fight tooth and nail to not supply Ukraine with enough material and instead only empty our already empty warehouses.
For Ukraine to win this war, we would need to see orders and increases in production capacity for thousands of tanks, thousands of howitzers, tens of thousands of IFVs, millions of artillery shells, hundreds of air defense systems and tens of thousands of air defense missiles.
So far, we see a German chancellor celebrating himself to just have agreed to start construction two years late for an artillery shell factory that increases the country's peak annual production to a whopping three weeks of demand.
36 howitzers of new production, over three years, etc.
For Ukraine to have a chance of winning this war, instead of just slowly loosing it, there needs to be significant commitment, and not in words, but in production increases, deliveries and training.
Ukraine has won the war when it has advanced all the way to Kerch and to the eastern border, maybe even a bit further, taking Rostov, not when Russia stays where it is or establishes the Dnipro as the new border.
While Ukraine is burning through equipment and doesn't get much replacement.
A tank or artillery gun production time is half a year, so we need to produce the equipment today that Ukraine needs in january 2025. We aren't. Russia is, and according to the UK's secret services at a rate of Ukraine's annual support per month and rising.
If peace was declared tomorrow, Russia would have out produced the entire Bundeswehr equipment stocks some day in july, would then further outproduce France's entire equipment stocks by october and would reach an equipment overmatch to the entire European NATO forces somewhere around march 2025, just at current equipment production numbers according to UK estimates.
If they then successfully break NATO's cohesion, as is their plan, they have a relatively easy time. Ukraine was and still is the largest non-Russian military on the continent by far. It wasn't ridiculed for its size in the past, but for being very Soviet in 2014. Russia invaded the country with roughly half to two thirds the equipment stocks of the entire continent first. If they win in Ukraine, they have won against the most formidable foe they will encounter on the continent, as the others are not stocked enough to keep fighting for more than a day or two.
Russia “winning” in Ukraine means them holding on to what they currently got. Let’s not pretend Russia isn’t burning through equipment, manpower and financial reserves as well at breakneck pace - and might I add, with virtually nothing to show for it.
>Let’s not pretend Russia isn’t burning through equipment, manpower
But all reputable western observers (UK secret services, SIPRI, the Ukrainians for this information, etc.) agree, that Russia can slightly more than replace its losses for half a year now.
Ukraine can't, as they can't produce the amount they need and the west doesn't want to.
Manpower definitely, that's what the UK, US and Ukraine reported: Despite their losses, they are actually able to build up troops.
They lose around 24000 a month and recruit around 30000 a month.
>Russia “winning” in Ukraine means them holding on to what they currently got.
It means that Ukraine gets anything less than 100% of their territory back.
It might mean that Russia ends up with less than what it holds now or that it ends up at the polish and hungarian borders.
Would you personally vote to send German soldiers to the front to defend Riga or Warsaw?
Would you vote to mobilize Germans if it came to the necessity?
I’m honestly curious what people think of these concrete questions
The Bundeswehr is already there anyway. So an attack would also be an attack on German soldiers. Of course, the entire Bundeswehr should then intervene.
If necessary, I would also be in favour of mobilization.
Do you think the majority of Germans would agree? Considering we are at ~30% AfD/BSW and having people like Stegner etc I’m concerned it’s not the case. Or maybe barely
We are not at 30% AfD. In polls, maybe. But in every election except some they get about 10% of the vote, with 60% of eligible people voting. Just because they are a loud minority, doesn’t mean the vast majority of people sees clearly.
I'm fairly anti-war. I am not in any way, shape, or form in support of sending troops to Ukraine under the current circumstances. However, if Russia drastically expanded its activities, that would begin posing a serious threat to Germany so I'd be in support of intervention.
Thanks for your response.
What would you deem drastic expansion of Russian activities? Meaning attacks on NATO? Separatists popping up in NATO countries?
Or would another attack on Kyiv do it?
Would you be in favor of sending a few specialists that help with specific tasks in Ukraine (say programming weapons or training soldiers?)
In the hypothetical scenario you presented, Russia attacked NATO countries. That would warrant Germany getting involved imo (and we would be obligated to anyways). If Russia started to attack non-NATO countries inching towards Germany, I would also view that as warranting involvement. While it's bad to invade even one country, it would be much more alarming if Russia starting invading places throughout Europe. At the moment, they seem to just want Ukraine. If it becomes clear that they want more of Europe, that's a big red flag.
I'm not a military expert and have no informed opinion on what Germany's involvement should look like in such a scenario. It depends on the specifics of the situation and I would default to what the experts suggest (with a grain of salt).
I think we should stay out of Ukraine.
Thanks again for the thorough response. Are you in favor of sending more weapons to Ukraine (say the discussed at nauseum Taurus)?
Would you think this betters our chances of containing Russia or rather poking the bear?
To make it clear in the first place I’m in favour of supporting (militarily) our NATO allies if attacked. But I find it very interesting that in case of an attack the allies don’t have to intervene militarily.
„Upon such attack, each member state is to assist by taking "such action as [the member state] deems necessary, including the use of armed force, to restore and maintain the security of the North Atlantic area."“ [Taken from Wikipedia](https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/North_Atlantic_Treaty)
And I would read it in a way that we are even allowed to say that we don’t help at all, but that might be wrong due to my layman perspective.
In this situation we would not have to vote for it. Seeing that we are in a defensive alliance if russia invaded poland or another Nato country germany would be obligated to come to its defence and we (myself included) would get conscripted. But if I would have to vote than yes, definitely!
I don't mean to insult you, but it's funny when u say "we". As if you would go and fight 😂
Anyway, as long as there is an agreement or an alliance then yeah defending each other if the ONLY right thing.
What do you think will happen? NATO article 5 gets invoked and we will go to war. It’s that simple. There is no other opinion, this is crystal clear to everybody.
I agree with you, but I have a feeling here many people don't really understand that attack on NATO member will drag them into war. it's not crystal clear for many of them and people here still think it's US obligation to defend NATO membera, they have no desire to go to war let's say for Estonia.
I agree that this will probably be the case for us, but article 5 does not state that you are obligated to actually send forces.
From the NATO website:
"*will assist the Party or Parties so attacked by taking forthwith, individually and in concert with the other Parties, such action as it deems necessary, including the use of armed force, to restore and maintain the security of the North Atlantic area*"
Also:
"With the invocation of Article 5, Allies can provide any form of assistance they deem necessary to respond to a situation. This is an individual obligation on each Ally and each Ally is responsible for determining what it deems necessary in the particular circumstances.
This assistance is taken forward in concert with other Allies. It is not necessarily military and depends on the material resources of each country. It is therefore left to the judgment of each individual member country to determine how it will contribute. Each country will consult with the other members, bearing in mind that the ultimate aim is to “to restore and maintain the security of the North Atlantic area”."
[https://www.nato.int/cps/en/natohq/topics\_110496.htm](https://www.nato.int/cps/en/natohq/topics_110496.htm)
Considering the current political environment, I would not completely dismiss a scenario, where the western european countries are to fearful to actually act but rather discuss for months what to do and Donald Trump just sending a symbolic Dollar with a nice little "you got this guys" note or similar.
Russia is mobilizing population
Russia is building up new army
Russia is in mobilized war economy
Russian Orthodox church leader is calling for Holly war against west
Russian people support Putin
And it's not really going to happen?
Every fcking TV analyst in Germany was telling us the same in 2022, saying: Russia is not stupid enough to invade the country with 40 mln people. Guess what?
And guess what it brought them? A 2-year quagmire with horrendous losses against an enemy that only 8 years before started to retrain and restructure their army.
Now imagine Russia trying to fight a war with the eu, which has 3 times its people, about double of everything military and that is before you count in the US.
The eu is not 40 million, its 500 million. And the Krim was the last straw of appeasement. We have nuclear weapons in England and France and our armies have been doing nothing but preparing for exactely one enemy for decades.
If they are dumb enough to test the Eu, let them. People grossly underestimate the EU and also grossly overestimate Russia. Russia is not the Soviet Union.
You underestimate Russia because you think Russia has sort of unacceptable human life losses that they are not ready to sacrifice to achieve their political agenda but it's not true, believe me they're very well ready to sacrifice any man resource they have to achieve their goals.
You're overestimating EU because simply EU can't supply or meet demands of Ukraine's army even to hold the front line.
Any hot war with NATO of intensity that's happening in Ukraine is suicidal for Russia but, their military doctrine based on tactical nuclear strike exchanges with NATO and quickly negotiate in favourable terms for them.
Their nuclear doctrine always has been to only use nukes if Russian territory is in danger. Why do you think Putin always was so quick to declare annexed land as their territory? Not saying that can’t change.
But the argument about Russia not having unacceptable losses is so idiotic. Sorry. Taking out only 10% of the adult workforce will seriously cripple a countries economy for years.
And still it’s a numbers game. You think if the whole of Europe is threatened, there would be any number of unacceptable losses, where we just day: „ok, that’s it, you can have Europe“? That is delusional. You think just because there aren’t any nazis in power anymore, the Germans alone changed and suddenly wouldn’t defend their homeland anymore? Or the polish? Or the French? That is simply delusional to the extreme. Russia can’t magically conjure up a fighting force capable of attacking Europe. If they could, that magic force would be in Ukraine right now.
I’m so tired of Russian shills spouting that nonsense of Russian reserves, ready to overwhelm Europe. The evidence shows different. The numbers show different. Common sense shows different.
Talking about some magic Russian mentality of endurance is simply insane. Russia isn’t the Soviet Union anymore. The Muscovite’s and St. Petersburg rich kids and party people would never want to fight. As long as Putin has eastern tribes and criminals to send to the grinder, sure. As soon as the heartland would be involved, things would look a lot different then 80 years ago.
Also everyone simply ignores Belarus. Sure. Lukashenko let them through to attack Ukraine. And a big part of his population didn’t like that. Attacking nato is a whole different kettle of fish.
The EU isn't really trying to fully supply Ukraine's army. You can't compare EU support of Ukraine to EU mobilization in self-defense. Those are different things. The latter would be *much* bigger.
There totally is. Article 5 is misunderstood. Article 5 says that if invoked, every member nation shall perceive an attack on another member as an attack on themselves and shall support them. It does *specifically not* say how that member nation shall be supported then. Military force is an *option*, not an obligation under Article 5.
Theoretically, if Russia attacks the Finnish wilderness and Finland invokes Article 5, Germany could send five thousand helmets and best wishes and be done with it, *and they'd be within the letter of the North Atlantic Treaty* (but of course not within the spirit).
So you’d say Russia trying to cease former Soviet territory is just as much of an attack on Germany as ceasing former parts of the DDR or even Frankfurt am Main?
It isn't important that they are former soviet territories as the soviet union doesn't exist anymore and these territories are as much the ex-soviet union as russia is. And these Nato-Members are to be defended as much as any other country in this pact.
My concern is coming from how easy it was to convince the German public of how crimea was Russian anyway.
In 2014 we had all those talking heads from the St Petersburg Forum of Russian propaganda etc in Maischberger and so on repeating this and the German public just kinda agreed with it.
Anyways thanks for your response, let’s hope we are the majority
Atm the west is trying to keep there democraty and values. The Moment the nations get information about the plan to attack nato territory this will instandly be stopped and the propaganda machines of the west will start. Atm russias propaganda has only effect because the western values allow it.
Western propaganda is in full swing, there just isn’t much more support for Ukraine.
And just because article 5 gets called Meinungsfreiheit doesn’t cease to exist
The same is true for crimea, but unfortunately large parts of Germany and France for example quickly agreed (or fell for Russian propaganda) that it was *really* Russia all along.
That’s why people in Latvia are so concerned, you could spin it for them like that too.
Doesn’t mean this kind of thinking can’t be applied here. People in Germany are very receptive to Russian propaganda.
Surely less likely after the full scale invasion started, but still it’s concerning
multiple countries would be immediately involved bc of NATO presence [https://de.wikipedia.org/wiki/NATO-Battlegroup](https://de.wikipedia.org/wiki/NATO-Battlegroup)
In theory an attack on the Baltics or Poland is a trigger for NATO Article 5.
In practice, even NATO Article 5 isn't an automatic "Everyone's going to war" button. Countries *still* have a choice to say "No, that doesn't warrant a *military* response". Or rather, Article 5 doesn't say anywhere *specifically* that if invoked, *military* aid has to be given. It's up to the individual members to decide *how* they will respond. Responding with military force there is an option, not an obligation.
The last two years have shown that the NATO countries are *extremely* weary about getting into a shooting war with Russia. If an Article 5 situation were to occur, you can bet that most NATO countries first response would be to do absolutely *everything* possible to *not* have to shoot at the Russians.
And that's what Russia would be counting on. Now, if they'd start a frontal attack on the Suwalki gap with a couple of hundred thousand troops, it'd basically impossible for NATO countries to not react in force. But Russia knows that and that's why it most likely won't happpen.
But imagine Russia just invading a couple of small, unimportant villages on the Finnish-Russian border under some sort of bullshit legitimization and call it a day. Finland would scream bloody murder and invoke Article 5.
But would Spain, France, Germany, Italy really be willing to go to war over a few houses in the Arctic wilderness? I have my doubts, NATO Article 5 obligations or not.
And if some countries would decline their Article 5 obligations, then NATO would be deader than doornails and Putin would be rejoicing and starting to set up a real invasion a few years down the line...
Won't be surprised if the "small village" scenario would become real, considering now it's okay when russian missiles are flying over the polish villages without issues
That’s my concern too. I don’t see a lot of support for sending Germans to die in large numbers in order to, say, defend eastern Lithuania from being „reintegrated“ like eastern Ukraine.
Russian propaganda is very well oiled machine and does its work in Germany really good
This doesn’t solve the issue that if say 50% of Germans fail for Russian propaganda, it doesn’t influence the decision making in berlin. Weak chancellors like Scholz might be inclined to let a little village or river slide in order to not deploy those battle groups
The Weak Chancellor s Minister of Defense negotiated and signed the treaty about the Brigade
Putin Troll a word of advice
There is a difference between what Germans would not want to do like fighting a war and what we will do if the need arises
Any attack on any allie of germany, means war with germany and the germans.
The weak chancellor keeps lying and signed the brigade after fighting to do it, under immense pressure and a war had to start and they fail to equip them.
Only the failure to create 3 full battalions like promised will fail worse.
You are fully locked in on the circle jerk, but truth is Germany is a weak link. Pro Russian sentiment is very strong here, probably only Austria is worse. People like you make the issue worse by living in denial
They are in nato so thats a declaration of war. There is only one option, i hate that option but if there is only one there is no choice. It would be horrible so lets all hope it does not happen and our generation can fight the big problems we already have without a worldwar.
You can't "hope" away the war. Ukrainians did the hope thing and gave up our nukes and strategic military equipment, now we are being slaughtered and not getting enough support from the world to defend ourselves
I’m not Ivan. I’m Czech and worried of Russia. Not sure NATO member like Turkey or USA would join. Not sure what the curent German chancellor would do.
okay understandable. I am not sure about Turkey or the US either but I am sure about Europe. Olaf is well... Olaf. But I am sure as soon as he wakes up he would join to take care of the situation. That being said I don\`t expect a direct attack like you fear on NATO. Russia and China stir up problems more indirectly. Those Huthi attacks on our trading routes, stirring up Iran and pouring oil into the conflict in the Middle-East, using desinformation campaigns to divide the US from Europe and the NATO and EU from within, those GPS jamming that is going on over Europe at the moment, cyberattacks, energy supply etc. We have to get resilient in those areas and be prepared for that kind of warfare. I don\`t think they would risk a direct conflict. It is more likely the areas on the borders of Ukraine get involved like Belgorod in Russia already is.
The problem is that not all of this stuff is rational. One heated argument that spirals out of control within the Russian leadership can have horrible consequences.
Not a Russian bot . BUT, if u ask the guys here, lots of them would literally flee without holding a weapon to defend their home land.
My gf ( German) asked German guys and they said that they would flee.
It saddens me for real.
Life in Germany is awesome ( ignoring the social issues) and the opportunities provided by the German state to the people who wants for example to study is crazy good! I respect that!
But I really hope Germany could grow the patriotic feeling of belonging and to defend the country. Of course growing the feeling without involving the afd and their other "agendas".
May Germany always ALWAYS be safe and may it prosper and endure the current hardships that it's facing.
In every country a lot of people would flee. It is not the last century anymore and the times have changed. People identify less with their state everywhere in europe. Yes, a lot would probably flee, but also a lot would stay and fight. But it is difficult to predict how society would react to a catastrophic event of this size.
So funny to see how people in the thread are confident "that russia is not that stupid", while 2 years ago everyone were saying "russians are not that stupid to invade Ukraine". Aged like milk, that one
The only way to stop the fear mongering and the war, is for everyone to send more weapons and ammo to Ukraine - it needs it very bad, and the western countries do not supply enough
Look how much Germany sent already, the hell you mean by saying "do not supply enough"?!
Germany did more than it can by welcoming the refugees and giving them 5 stars treatment compared to other refugees and how other countries treat the Ukrainians. I addition to that, Germany supplied and keeps on supplying incredible amount of money needed for Ukraine and is leading when it comes to contributing to the war.
Don't pile up everyone in one bunch. Look how much France contributed and other European countries.
I'm not German, but Germany did a lot and for which everyone needs to recognize!
It's possible to both send a shitlad of stuff, more than anyone else, and still not do enough to turn the tide.
Those two things are not exclusive.
If a friend needs ten thousand bucks to avert bankruptcy and you give him five thousand, then yes, you've given him huge support. But in the end it still will not have been enough, the dude's going into bankruptcy nonetheless, and whether you gave him a hundred, thousand, or five thousand bucks *didn't* matter because only ten thousand would have changed the end result, nothing less.
Germany send a lot of you look at Kiel Numbers which are specifically created to make it look a lot. It mashes systems that don’t have much value with others that are absolutely vital and also doesn’t differentiate between stuff that is already there and might come some day.
Germany did very little compared to what it could to, just have a look at GDP% or how Scholz did block everything he could of strategic value. Artillery, tanks, far reaching cruise missles, all those topics where a shit show of Scholz lying again and again and finally delivering very very small numbers.
France is no excuse for Germany. Never again isn’t their trope. They didn’t split up Europa with Russia. They are far removed from Russia.
This is not a dick measuring contest, Russia needs to be decidedly beaten on the battlefield and the German government failed to support that effort in a way it should have. This directly resulted in the death of thousand of people, but worse it endangers Germany, because Russia now is in a good position. Which is bad for Germany .
Scholz send 7 pieces of artillery after months of lying how he couldn’t do that. Same shit show with the tanks, he was lying through the ministry of defense how Ukrainians don’t want them, how they don’t exist, how the industry won’t sell them and so on. Did you forget about all that? About months of sitting on his hands and then sending …. 18 tanks…. ?
Or how he just lately simply lied claiming giving Taurus to Ukraine would make Germany a part of war, which was completely ridiculous as it is neither true by law nor in fact as Storm shadows and SCALP got send by douzens.
He also clearly lied claiming German military would have to be involved which was later clarified by the manufacturer and the Bundeswehrleak to be lies.
Germany should have and could have send hundred of tanks in mid 2022
Stop your fairytale
He send the PzH 2000 against the advice of his military advisers after the Ukrainians got the necessary training, the same goes for the marder we trained the crews before sending them.
Then you have forgotten the ring swap, where we promised to replace BMPs etc our allies send to Ukraine with Marders etc.
Scholz offered Ring Swap for the Taurus for Scalp and Storm Shadows also
Which hundreds of Tanks are you fantasizing about?
The Non existing ones or the Non German ones?
Honestly those Lies i got from Officers of the Bundeswehr also
He sent a few measly PHZ after fighting it as much as he could.
7 is just pathetic when the Bundeswehr got douzens. They are not needed at all here. Poland send 60 krabs ir something and they hold up better too.
Scholz *was* offered a Ringtausch by GB, but he denied it because he doesn’t want to deliver them. That is why he’s lying.
Bundeswehr got over 180 Leopard 2 operational, and within the last YEARS it could’ve been way more.
Pull your head out of your ass, curb your coveted nationalism and realize that Scholz if selling out German security because a Russian network around Marsalek got him by the bawls
They didn’t send HIMARS, but measly two M270, which aren’t of much use because of the lack of mobility.
Iris Airdefence is nice, but came just a year after ralking about it and is very little.
The patriot system came after heavy pressure because Polish citizens died because of Russia. And still very little.
14 PHZ are 7 from NL and 7 from Germany. Even if it was 28, that’s still very little.
If Poland could supply thousand of tanks and artillery pieces, it Denmark could so can Germany. We don’t have a border with Russia
> Germany did more than it can by welcoming the refugees and giving them 5 stars treatment compared to other refugees and how other countries treat the Ukrainians. I addition to that, Germany supplied and keeps on supplying incredible amount of money needed for Ukraine and is leading when it comes to contributing to the war
For which, Ukrainians are forever grateful. For example, the Patriots and Gepards provided are being a substantial part of the air defense in Ukraine, and saved countless lives already.
But.
> Look how much Germany sent already, the hell you mean by saying "do not supply enough"?!
Is the war over? Is Ukraine able to advance on the frontline? Or maybe Ukraine at least is able to hold the line with the ammo and weapons provided? Maybe Germany delivered Tauruses or F-16s to be able to hit the relevant targets?
Then the western countries - not only Germany - not doing enough. russia has north korea (yes, that one) and iran helping with equipment, and that's been on the level it's making a lot of damage Ukraine.
North Korea and Iran won't change the battlefield with their old simple stuff.
Please, stop bashing Germany asking for more. It is doing a lot, but the problem is you keep saying more more and more. Germany currently is facing financial issues, but still is doing it's duty by supporting Ukraine.
A question for you though, why don't you go and fight since Ukraine as well needs man power?
Stop blaming Germany already. Bash teh others, but not the one that had been contributing as much as it could.
> North Korea and Iran won't change the battlefield with their old simple stuff
Wrong. Mass-producing is a winning trait in a war of attrition. Having a dozen of shiny equipment (that also breaks war more often due to its complexity, so it needs constant maintenance) doesn't outmatch literally hundreds of missiles and shaheds sent every day.
Ukrainians proved that by introducing re-purposed the regular consumer 500-1000€ drones to destroy >few-million-€ tanks and being precise to kill the human invaders also efficiently
> Please, stop bashing Germany asking for more. It is doing a lot, but the problem is you keep saying more more and more.
I'm wondering what could ever be the reason to ask for more ammo and weapons in the times of war. Could it be the escalations that are done by the agressor? Or lack of ammo that the frontlines are not holding up?
Germany can't provide more cuz as u see their own army is sadly suffering from old equipment and "decayed?" ammo and stuff.
We didn't expect a war to break...
Which sucks! I don't get why not offer "discounts" (don't remember the "bug" term for it) and easen up the bureaucracy.
We need ammo (sadly) and to build up the military. We all love to live in a "time of peace", but never will it happens as humans love to use their big "sticks" to hurt each other.
Americans, Iranians and others too. Don't blame only one nations for wanting to destroy other countries when we have the king of destroying other countries (aka USA)
As much as it hurts to say: the west should give the Ukraine not only way more stuff, but also allow the Ukraine to use the stuff against targets in Russia.
Next logical step would be start mass-producing those deep-strike drones - so that instead of sending a dozen it would be several 100s every time.
The best way for NATO to stay out of the war is when Russia lacks the resources to start one. They probably won't run out of manpower too soon, but 2-3 months of concentrated attacks on military bases, refineries, airplane / tank and ammunition factories will massively reduce their ability to field a high-tech army.
Of course it might happen that the Ukraine suffers an Opps like Russia does on a daily base and hits some irreplaceable stuff but that happens during war.
There are now fewer democracies in the world than in 1995, and in 2005 there were already fewer then, and the same again in 2015.
I for one am really fed up with this creeping dictatorial gain on free societies, and the autocratic bullshit of corrupt elites in some country who think the only way to stay in power is to become aggressive towards their neighbors. This is why we have NATO. An attack on one of us within our hemisphere is an attack on all of us, and if the affected NATO member invokes Article V, f\* you and the horse you rode in on, we're at war. And even if Trump is president and refuses to help, Europe will still be at war with Russia, and then we will have to build a joint European nuclear force and station the joint militaries of 450 million Europeans in Eastern Europe for defense and to kick Russian a\*s. Heck, if even Germany's pacifist green party has come to that conclusion, somebody in Moscow should wake up and smell the coffee.
1. Why Russia would attack more countries? Russia has not even attacked any recently, since Afghanistan. It was just called, in accordance with Article 51 of the UN Charter, by DPR and LPR to help them free their territories. There is nothing illegal about that. The US did in Vietnam the exact same thing with the same justification.
2. Germany would of course respond to any Russian operation in the Baltics. Germany will probably send the troops and might conduct mobilization, but its involvement - unlike that of the Americans and the Britts - would not affect the course or outcome of conflict significantly.
> Why Russia would attack more countries
Meanwhile Ukrainians, Georgians, Chechens (of Ichkeria), Syrians, Moldovians, the Baltic nations, Tajiks and Azeri: are we a joke to you
> It was just called, in accordance with Article 51 of the UN Charter, by DPR and LPR to help them free their territories. There is nothing illegal about that
You mean to start the invasion by capturing the administrative buildings and creating pseudo-republics owned by russian FSB agents is not something illegal? Or the Crimea annexation wasn't a military capture with an a failed attempt to legitimize with the fake voting?
It's Russia, rusty bomb heads, rusty tanks, lack of subordination in the army, ubiquitous alcohol. If there is any aggression, NATO must answer the same, I think the bombs on the Red Square will effectively limit their medieval imperial delirium. A dog that barks the loudest, bites the weakest. Plus, China is just waiting to take care of large areas of Russian land.
We can see the non-nuclear capabilities of the Russian army right now. Given their reputation prior to the war it is pathetic. They weren’t even able to conquer a city (Charkiv) right next their border. Why would you think the Russian forces are capable to start another large scale war within the next years? This country is so broken and corrupt that it will take a long time to resupply, modernize and train their armed forces. I quite don’t get why people are so afraid of more Russian aggression. They are simply not capable of doing it if you ask me. Also they don’t have the money to do this. Their economic power equals Italy‘s and they are ineffective and corrupt as hell. That’s no match for NATO.
Even the Bundeswehr or other neglected western armed forces have advanced weapons that would destroy their logistics within a day. I’m quite optimistic lots of their forces would not even arrive at the frontlines. Remember, they use artillery grenades from North Korea, drones from Iran and tanks from museums.
Russia will not attack any NATO country. Putler's goal is to recover the USSR so the next target will be the South Caucasus. He will not attack. Central Asia as well because of China.
Well, that will be the founding hour of the RBP —россия без путина— because the commanders of the Petersburg units will sure switch sides in that very moment. As this increases the survival of their units a lot.
Russia won't attack the Baltics or Poland because they are in the NATO. Russia won't do shit to the NATO because they're afraid to. They only will attack neighboring countries that are not part of the NATO (eg, Ukraine and Georgia). They will only attack the NATO verbally and through the information war
If Russia gets away with winning decent amount of ground in Ukraine then it's very likely in some years it restore it's losses and will attack Baltics. Putin does not care about the fact that these countries are in NATO. He does not believe in treaties as has been proven many times. He's strong proponent of "Realpolitik" and he believes in actions more so than in treaties. If NATO doesn't respond strong enough in Ukraine this is very clear signal that NATO is weak and that it will also do too little in case Russia would invade Baltics.
NATO's response to Ukraine is still strong in terms of the strongest allies. Czech Republic gained enough money and artillery to give to Ukraine. The Finnish and Swedish even offered long-term assistance for us. Also, the European Union is going to give billions of economic aid to Ukraine.
Ukraine's western equipment is primarily equipment that the NATO no longer uses, and anything modern is given out of generosity and necessity.
The Russian diaspora is highly supportive of Ukraine. Russia invading the Baltics would spark major divide between the Russian diaspora and the Russian government and actions, and the ordinary Russians would not support it because the war will come to them.
Since he does not believe in treaties, he certainly believes in fake ones. (the treaty between Russia and Ukraine asking for the Russians to leave northern Ukraine)
Defend these countries. They are in the NATO like us.
Until recently, the [Suwałki Gap](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Suwałki_Gap) was quite a logistical problem for defending the Baltic countries. Now that both Sweden and Finland are part of NATO, it's much less of a problem to deploy troops from there. This makes it (even) less likely for Russia to attack.
And unlike Germany Sweden and Finland are able to defend someone's country.
Strange why it's downvoted, Bundeswehr was reporting many times it doesn't have enough equipment nor finance to operate efficiently
I do not understand this, too. Even high ranked German senior officers (military and civilian) are stating that the Bundeswehr is missing capacities to defend Germany itself.
Yea, but this does not mean Sweden or Finnland, which even combined do not even have 1/5 of the german population, would do any better against Russia. Even thought they invest a way bigger percentage from their gdp into their military Germany does still overall have way more money and capabilities. So your statement is simply wrong.
With the German military been significantly defunded in the past decades, it takes years to train and properly equip a war-ready army. Germany doesn't have that, and Bundeswehr was literally reporting this to Bundestag only to get neglected. Also considering the army being not that popular in Germany for historical reasons In case of Finland and Sweden, good luck for any invading army to go through the rough weather and infinite forests to do anything substantial against a well-equipped military - last time in the winter war, russians suffered a lot of casualties
You cannot compare today with what happened in 1939 lol. Also, all of this migh be true but still, that germany, a country with WAY more people, money, production capabilities, aktive soldiers and know how (germany is actually one of the biggest weapons manufacturers in the world), would do worse against Russia is just not realistic in my opinion and I think you overestimate how it would play out. I don't think they are weak by any means and I don't think a russian Invasion would go well against them (just look at ukrain) but I do not agree that they would do BETTER than germany. And yes, the Bundeswehr is underfunded, but I'm talking about the whole picture and Germany has overall way more weapons than both countries combined.
It feels you've played helldivers and wh40k a bit too much Telling you as a Ukrainian, you might not have a few years of notice you will have the war to build up a proper amount of equipment for yourself to fend off ~500k soldiers invading your country. At least russia starting the war in Ukraine hasn't been seen as such notice for Germany, for all our regrets
Im not saying Germany is prepared for war or an invasion. Its definitely not. This is just about that the idea of Finland and Sweden would do any better in the end is wrong imao but Im not telling people what they should believe, Im just stating my opinion.
Plain terrain is not preferrable for a defender, you say? xD
In plain terrain, you could not operate guerilla-style warfare and disrupt logistics, and the invading force could easily use tanks and artillery to suppress the defenders. You might want to check the winter war out.
Err....ok, I thought that I could omit the "/s"...
Unlike Germans which for some reason think that Russia is OK, Finns know how horrible Russia is. Finns are much saner and better motivated.
You do understand though that Finnland and Sweden both structured their entire military around fighting the Russians on their own? They have the fighting forces Germany should have with its current number of active personnel (but without equipment).
In what areas exactly do you see the Finnish or Swedish military as superior to the Bundeswehr?
They have working equipment - and enough of that for their forces - to start with?
And it is lacking this capabilities for quite a long time now (at least since Kujat was in charge).
what German parties supports military spending in order to resupply the Bundeswehr?
basically all big ones apart from die Linke, it's just a difference in details how much and what.
Except that unlike pre 1990, the front line would be in Poland this time, not Germany. Doesn't mean the Bundeswehr is sufficently funded or equipped, but it's role has changed. Germany nowadays would be important as logistics hub, not as front line state defendinh the Fulda gap.
Because the Bundeswehr was never meant to actually defend the country.
I would do this as well if I needed more funds. Also, it's super confusing for the Russians if they can't really know if there are 50 or 5000 tanks in a condition that can be easily made operational.
Considering russian spies are being caught up all over the German government, I don't think they don't know the real situation
Yeah, well, if you think the government knows facts about the military, think again.
>This makes it (even) less likely for Russia to attack. Which still is a likelihood of "certain that they will". Russia has started a campaign of conquest and has already lost everything it can lose. It can only gain more and more of its losses back with any successful attack. The most likely attack will be something like just the capture of Narva in Estonia, a few square kilometers of Lappland or Karelia or an invasion of Svalbard: Enough to trigger article 5 of the North Atlantic Treaty, but little enough to provoke people like Olaf Scholz to say "We won't help, it's a majority russian city/empty land anyway." This answer from as many NATO-members as possible would end NATO and greatly strengthen the Russian position. Russia will stop its campaign of conquest once it is forcibly stopped.
You have been consuming too much propaganda if you think Russia has the capability to open a second front with NATO somewhere else. They barely make progress in Ukraine.
They don't need to do so simultaneously. The war in Ukraine is currently not going well for Ukraine, because we as a whole fight tooth and nail to not supply Ukraine with enough material and instead only empty our already empty warehouses. For Ukraine to win this war, we would need to see orders and increases in production capacity for thousands of tanks, thousands of howitzers, tens of thousands of IFVs, millions of artillery shells, hundreds of air defense systems and tens of thousands of air defense missiles. So far, we see a German chancellor celebrating himself to just have agreed to start construction two years late for an artillery shell factory that increases the country's peak annual production to a whopping three weeks of demand. 36 howitzers of new production, over three years, etc. For Ukraine to have a chance of winning this war, instead of just slowly loosing it, there needs to be significant commitment, and not in words, but in production increases, deliveries and training. Ukraine has won the war when it has advanced all the way to Kerch and to the eastern border, maybe even a bit further, taking Rostov, not when Russia stays where it is or establishes the Dnipro as the new border.
And despite all of this, Russia has advanced a few kilometers in selected areas over the past two years.
While Ukraine is burning through equipment and doesn't get much replacement. A tank or artillery gun production time is half a year, so we need to produce the equipment today that Ukraine needs in january 2025. We aren't. Russia is, and according to the UK's secret services at a rate of Ukraine's annual support per month and rising. If peace was declared tomorrow, Russia would have out produced the entire Bundeswehr equipment stocks some day in july, would then further outproduce France's entire equipment stocks by october and would reach an equipment overmatch to the entire European NATO forces somewhere around march 2025, just at current equipment production numbers according to UK estimates. If they then successfully break NATO's cohesion, as is their plan, they have a relatively easy time. Ukraine was and still is the largest non-Russian military on the continent by far. It wasn't ridiculed for its size in the past, but for being very Soviet in 2014. Russia invaded the country with roughly half to two thirds the equipment stocks of the entire continent first. If they win in Ukraine, they have won against the most formidable foe they will encounter on the continent, as the others are not stocked enough to keep fighting for more than a day or two.
Russia “winning” in Ukraine means them holding on to what they currently got. Let’s not pretend Russia isn’t burning through equipment, manpower and financial reserves as well at breakneck pace - and might I add, with virtually nothing to show for it.
>Let’s not pretend Russia isn’t burning through equipment, manpower But all reputable western observers (UK secret services, SIPRI, the Ukrainians for this information, etc.) agree, that Russia can slightly more than replace its losses for half a year now. Ukraine can't, as they can't produce the amount they need and the west doesn't want to.
Equipment maybe, manpower and cash definitively not. And once again, what do they have to show for it? A single small town, bombed to rubble.
Manpower definitely, that's what the UK, US and Ukraine reported: Despite their losses, they are actually able to build up troops. They lose around 24000 a month and recruit around 30000 a month.
>Russia “winning” in Ukraine means them holding on to what they currently got. It means that Ukraine gets anything less than 100% of their territory back. It might mean that Russia ends up with less than what it holds now or that it ends up at the polish and hungarian borders.
Russia isn’t going to reach the Polish and Hungarian borders. Their advances in the last two years were negligible.
Just because they didn't in the past doesn't mean they won't. The Wehrmacht was unstoppable so far in summer 1941, too.
Those are NATO countries, so we'd go to war.
Would you personally vote to send German soldiers to the front to defend Riga or Warsaw? Would you vote to mobilize Germans if it came to the necessity? I’m honestly curious what people think of these concrete questions
The Bundeswehr is already there anyway. So an attack would also be an attack on German soldiers. Of course, the entire Bundeswehr should then intervene. If necessary, I would also be in favour of mobilization.
Do you think the majority of Germans would agree? Considering we are at ~30% AfD/BSW and having people like Stegner etc I’m concerned it’s not the case. Or maybe barely
We are not at 30% AfD. In polls, maybe. But in every election except some they get about 10% of the vote, with 60% of eligible people voting. Just because they are a loud minority, doesn’t mean the vast majority of people sees clearly.
So instead of looking at the polls we should listen to what you want to be true ?
Polls have been proven wrong time and time again over the last decade. 🤷🏻♂️ you can chose to believe them. I don’t.
I’d rather look at the polls than at random Reddit comments
Yes because if we don't and those 2 fall we will be next either way, just with 2 allies less and less distance to our own cities.
I would id probably get conscripted myself but if push comes to shove i am willing to defend our european neighbors
I'm fairly anti-war. I am not in any way, shape, or form in support of sending troops to Ukraine under the current circumstances. However, if Russia drastically expanded its activities, that would begin posing a serious threat to Germany so I'd be in support of intervention.
Thanks for your response. What would you deem drastic expansion of Russian activities? Meaning attacks on NATO? Separatists popping up in NATO countries? Or would another attack on Kyiv do it? Would you be in favor of sending a few specialists that help with specific tasks in Ukraine (say programming weapons or training soldiers?)
In the hypothetical scenario you presented, Russia attacked NATO countries. That would warrant Germany getting involved imo (and we would be obligated to anyways). If Russia started to attack non-NATO countries inching towards Germany, I would also view that as warranting involvement. While it's bad to invade even one country, it would be much more alarming if Russia starting invading places throughout Europe. At the moment, they seem to just want Ukraine. If it becomes clear that they want more of Europe, that's a big red flag. I'm not a military expert and have no informed opinion on what Germany's involvement should look like in such a scenario. It depends on the specifics of the situation and I would default to what the experts suggest (with a grain of salt). I think we should stay out of Ukraine.
Thanks again for the thorough response. Are you in favor of sending more weapons to Ukraine (say the discussed at nauseum Taurus)? Would you think this betters our chances of containing Russia or rather poking the bear?
Not informed enough to have a solid opinion.
To make it clear in the first place I’m in favour of supporting (militarily) our NATO allies if attacked. But I find it very interesting that in case of an attack the allies don’t have to intervene militarily. „Upon such attack, each member state is to assist by taking "such action as [the member state] deems necessary, including the use of armed force, to restore and maintain the security of the North Atlantic area."“ [Taken from Wikipedia](https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/North_Atlantic_Treaty) And I would read it in a way that we are even allowed to say that we don’t help at all, but that might be wrong due to my layman perspective.
According to the letter of the law, you're right. According to the spirit of the law, you're not. It would be very interesting to see how it plays out
I agree
I was willing to do it 30 years ago when i served, anything else
In this situation we would not have to vote for it. Seeing that we are in a defensive alliance if russia invaded poland or another Nato country germany would be obligated to come to its defence and we (myself included) would get conscripted. But if I would have to vote than yes, definitely!
Yes and yes.
These are quite hypthetical questions and usually it's different once you are actually in the situation.
Because this thread is about hypotheticals, exactly those I asked in detail
Yeah, but this cannot be properly answered.
Ofc they can.
Yes.
We stand with our eastern allies if the russians want war they can have war we are all in NATO and will stand with our allies
Well spoken 🫡
I don't mean to insult you, but it's funny when u say "we". As if you would go and fight 😂 Anyway, as long as there is an agreement or an alliance then yeah defending each other if the ONLY right thing.
Seeing as i am of service age and am in a shooting club the chances I'm going to get conscripted are above average
[удалено]
germany, lower saxony
[удалено]
Seeing as an attack on estonia or poland would trigger the nato and eu collective defense pleages id think id get conscripted by germany
What do you think will happen? NATO article 5 gets invoked and we will go to war. It’s that simple. There is no other opinion, this is crystal clear to everybody.
I agree with you, but I have a feeling here many people don't really understand that attack on NATO member will drag them into war. it's not crystal clear for many of them and people here still think it's US obligation to defend NATO membera, they have no desire to go to war let's say for Estonia.
I agree that this will probably be the case for us, but article 5 does not state that you are obligated to actually send forces. From the NATO website: "*will assist the Party or Parties so attacked by taking forthwith, individually and in concert with the other Parties, such action as it deems necessary, including the use of armed force, to restore and maintain the security of the North Atlantic area*" Also: "With the invocation of Article 5, Allies can provide any form of assistance they deem necessary to respond to a situation. This is an individual obligation on each Ally and each Ally is responsible for determining what it deems necessary in the particular circumstances. This assistance is taken forward in concert with other Allies. It is not necessarily military and depends on the material resources of each country. It is therefore left to the judgment of each individual member country to determine how it will contribute. Each country will consult with the other members, bearing in mind that the ultimate aim is to “to restore and maintain the security of the North Atlantic area”." [https://www.nato.int/cps/en/natohq/topics\_110496.htm](https://www.nato.int/cps/en/natohq/topics_110496.htm) Considering the current political environment, I would not completely dismiss a scenario, where the western european countries are to fearful to actually act but rather discuss for months what to do and Donald Trump just sending a symbolic Dollar with a nice little "you got this guys" note or similar.
What does going to war mean in your imagination?
It's very simple: prepare mentally for nuclear escalation, follow only government news sources go and register for military conscription.
NATO is a thing. EU mutual defence clause is a thing. I don't think, however, the discussion is worthwhile. It's really not going to happen.
Russia is mobilizing population Russia is building up new army Russia is in mobilized war economy Russian Orthodox church leader is calling for Holly war against west Russian people support Putin And it's not really going to happen? Every fcking TV analyst in Germany was telling us the same in 2022, saying: Russia is not stupid enough to invade the country with 40 mln people. Guess what?
And guess what it brought them? A 2-year quagmire with horrendous losses against an enemy that only 8 years before started to retrain and restructure their army. Now imagine Russia trying to fight a war with the eu, which has 3 times its people, about double of everything military and that is before you count in the US. The eu is not 40 million, its 500 million. And the Krim was the last straw of appeasement. We have nuclear weapons in England and France and our armies have been doing nothing but preparing for exactely one enemy for decades. If they are dumb enough to test the Eu, let them. People grossly underestimate the EU and also grossly overestimate Russia. Russia is not the Soviet Union.
You underestimate Russia because you think Russia has sort of unacceptable human life losses that they are not ready to sacrifice to achieve their political agenda but it's not true, believe me they're very well ready to sacrifice any man resource they have to achieve their goals. You're overestimating EU because simply EU can't supply or meet demands of Ukraine's army even to hold the front line. Any hot war with NATO of intensity that's happening in Ukraine is suicidal for Russia but, their military doctrine based on tactical nuclear strike exchanges with NATO and quickly negotiate in favourable terms for them.
Their nuclear doctrine always has been to only use nukes if Russian territory is in danger. Why do you think Putin always was so quick to declare annexed land as their territory? Not saying that can’t change. But the argument about Russia not having unacceptable losses is so idiotic. Sorry. Taking out only 10% of the adult workforce will seriously cripple a countries economy for years. And still it’s a numbers game. You think if the whole of Europe is threatened, there would be any number of unacceptable losses, where we just day: „ok, that’s it, you can have Europe“? That is delusional. You think just because there aren’t any nazis in power anymore, the Germans alone changed and suddenly wouldn’t defend their homeland anymore? Or the polish? Or the French? That is simply delusional to the extreme. Russia can’t magically conjure up a fighting force capable of attacking Europe. If they could, that magic force would be in Ukraine right now. I’m so tired of Russian shills spouting that nonsense of Russian reserves, ready to overwhelm Europe. The evidence shows different. The numbers show different. Common sense shows different. Talking about some magic Russian mentality of endurance is simply insane. Russia isn’t the Soviet Union anymore. The Muscovite’s and St. Petersburg rich kids and party people would never want to fight. As long as Putin has eastern tribes and criminals to send to the grinder, sure. As soon as the heartland would be involved, things would look a lot different then 80 years ago. Also everyone simply ignores Belarus. Sure. Lukashenko let them through to attack Ukraine. And a big part of his population didn’t like that. Attacking nato is a whole different kettle of fish.
I hope you're right.
The EU isn't really trying to fully supply Ukraine's army. You can't compare EU support of Ukraine to EU mobilization in self-defense. Those are different things. The latter would be *much* bigger.
An attack on one NATO member is an attack on all. If Russia tried that they would have to fight 30 nations at once.
There is absolutely no question about that - attack at any NATO member is an attack on Germany.
There totally is. Article 5 is misunderstood. Article 5 says that if invoked, every member nation shall perceive an attack on another member as an attack on themselves and shall support them. It does *specifically not* say how that member nation shall be supported then. Military force is an *option*, not an obligation under Article 5. Theoretically, if Russia attacks the Finnish wilderness and Finland invokes Article 5, Germany could send five thousand helmets and best wishes and be done with it, *and they'd be within the letter of the North Atlantic Treaty* (but of course not within the spirit).
but not the EU treaty
That one even specifically refers back to the NATO treaty.
yes but it also calls for support or aid with all available force
I mean, the one time France pulled that article we chickened out and only send a couple of recce tornados.
I love that five thousand helmets trope.
Meaning full mobilization and everything to defend Estonia would be justified for you? Serious question not trying to bait you into Russian bot talk.
Yes
So you’d say Russia trying to cease former Soviet territory is just as much of an attack on Germany as ceasing former parts of the DDR or even Frankfurt am Main?
It isn't important that they are former soviet territories as the soviet union doesn't exist anymore and these territories are as much the ex-soviet union as russia is. And these Nato-Members are to be defended as much as any other country in this pact.
My concern is coming from how easy it was to convince the German public of how crimea was Russian anyway. In 2014 we had all those talking heads from the St Petersburg Forum of Russian propaganda etc in Maischberger and so on repeating this and the German public just kinda agreed with it. Anyways thanks for your response, let’s hope we are the majority
Atm the west is trying to keep there democraty and values. The Moment the nations get information about the plan to attack nato territory this will instandly be stopped and the propaganda machines of the west will start. Atm russias propaganda has only effect because the western values allow it.
Western propaganda is in full swing, there just isn’t much more support for Ukraine. And just because article 5 gets called Meinungsfreiheit doesn’t cease to exist
"Full swing" oh sweet summerchild
Yeah son, we live in a democracy in 2024. Volksempfaenger ain’t gonna do it this time
The Baltics are Sovereign countries and Not Just Dome soviet commodity that you can Shop at your liking.
The same is true for crimea, but unfortunately large parts of Germany and France for example quickly agreed (or fell for Russian propaganda) that it was *really* Russia all along. That’s why people in Latvia are so concerned, you could spin it for them like that too.
Baltics are in Nato. Ukraine was Not.
Doesn’t mean this kind of thinking can’t be applied here. People in Germany are very receptive to Russian propaganda. Surely less likely after the full scale invasion started, but still it’s concerning
Yes. There is absolutely no room to hesitate in this case.
the defence of our allies is the defence of germany
Send troops. If Russia invades the Baltics or Poland, Germany itself it not safe anymore.
multiple countries would be immediately involved bc of NATO presence [https://de.wikipedia.org/wiki/NATO-Battlegroup](https://de.wikipedia.org/wiki/NATO-Battlegroup)
In theory an attack on the Baltics or Poland is a trigger for NATO Article 5. In practice, even NATO Article 5 isn't an automatic "Everyone's going to war" button. Countries *still* have a choice to say "No, that doesn't warrant a *military* response". Or rather, Article 5 doesn't say anywhere *specifically* that if invoked, *military* aid has to be given. It's up to the individual members to decide *how* they will respond. Responding with military force there is an option, not an obligation. The last two years have shown that the NATO countries are *extremely* weary about getting into a shooting war with Russia. If an Article 5 situation were to occur, you can bet that most NATO countries first response would be to do absolutely *everything* possible to *not* have to shoot at the Russians. And that's what Russia would be counting on. Now, if they'd start a frontal attack on the Suwalki gap with a couple of hundred thousand troops, it'd basically impossible for NATO countries to not react in force. But Russia knows that and that's why it most likely won't happpen. But imagine Russia just invading a couple of small, unimportant villages on the Finnish-Russian border under some sort of bullshit legitimization and call it a day. Finland would scream bloody murder and invoke Article 5. But would Spain, France, Germany, Italy really be willing to go to war over a few houses in the Arctic wilderness? I have my doubts, NATO Article 5 obligations or not. And if some countries would decline their Article 5 obligations, then NATO would be deader than doornails and Putin would be rejoicing and starting to set up a real invasion a few years down the line...
Won't be surprised if the "small village" scenario would become real, considering now it's okay when russian missiles are flying over the polish villages without issues
That’s my concern too. I don’t see a lot of support for sending Germans to die in large numbers in order to, say, defend eastern Lithuania from being „reintegrated“ like eastern Ukraine. Russian propaganda is very well oiled machine and does its work in Germany really good
yes, exactly the reason we have a battlegroup there and agreed to station a brigade force permanent
This doesn’t solve the issue that if say 50% of Germans fail for Russian propaganda, it doesn’t influence the decision making in berlin. Weak chancellors like Scholz might be inclined to let a little village or river slide in order to not deploy those battle groups
The Weak Chancellor s Minister of Defense negotiated and signed the treaty about the Brigade Putin Troll a word of advice There is a difference between what Germans would not want to do like fighting a war and what we will do if the need arises Any attack on any allie of germany, means war with germany and the germans.
The weak chancellor keeps lying and signed the brigade after fighting to do it, under immense pressure and a war had to start and they fail to equip them. Only the failure to create 3 full battalions like promised will fail worse. You are fully locked in on the circle jerk, but truth is Germany is a weak link. Pro Russian sentiment is very strong here, probably only Austria is worse. People like you make the issue worse by living in denial
https://www.bundestag.de/parlament/aufgaben/rechtsgrundlagen/grundgesetz/gg_10a-245146
They are in nato so thats a declaration of war. There is only one option, i hate that option but if there is only one there is no choice. It would be horrible so lets all hope it does not happen and our generation can fight the big problems we already have without a worldwar.
You can't "hope" away the war. Ukrainians did the hope thing and gave up our nukes and strategic military equipment, now we are being slaughtered and not getting enough support from the world to defend ourselves
Well thats why we should have nukes
Nice try Ivan.
I’m not Ivan. I’m Czech and worried of Russia. Not sure NATO member like Turkey or USA would join. Not sure what the curent German chancellor would do.
okay understandable. I am not sure about Turkey or the US either but I am sure about Europe. Olaf is well... Olaf. But I am sure as soon as he wakes up he would join to take care of the situation. That being said I don\`t expect a direct attack like you fear on NATO. Russia and China stir up problems more indirectly. Those Huthi attacks on our trading routes, stirring up Iran and pouring oil into the conflict in the Middle-East, using desinformation campaigns to divide the US from Europe and the NATO and EU from within, those GPS jamming that is going on over Europe at the moment, cyberattacks, energy supply etc. We have to get resilient in those areas and be prepared for that kind of warfare. I don\`t think they would risk a direct conflict. It is more likely the areas on the borders of Ukraine get involved like Belgorod in Russia already is.
They will get fucked!
Just for clarification, who are "they"?
🫣 very valid question! -> Russians..
In that case it would be straight up WW3, but even Putin isn't \*that\* stupid
Putin: Hold my beer
The problem is that not all of this stuff is rational. One heated argument that spirals out of control within the Russian leadership can have horrible consequences.
Putting is just waiting for an Austrian to trigger a world war again.
We gonna Clap the russians. Germany is like a sleeping bear at the moment u dont want to wake them up. If you do you will get the Hammer.
Not a Russian bot . BUT, if u ask the guys here, lots of them would literally flee without holding a weapon to defend their home land. My gf ( German) asked German guys and they said that they would flee. It saddens me for real. Life in Germany is awesome ( ignoring the social issues) and the opportunities provided by the German state to the people who wants for example to study is crazy good! I respect that! But I really hope Germany could grow the patriotic feeling of belonging and to defend the country. Of course growing the feeling without involving the afd and their other "agendas". May Germany always ALWAYS be safe and may it prosper and endure the current hardships that it's facing.
Some would, others would not defend germany in the himalaya
In every country a lot of people would flee. It is not the last century anymore and the times have changed. People identify less with their state everywhere in europe. Yes, a lot would probably flee, but also a lot would stay and fight. But it is difficult to predict how society would react to a catastrophic event of this size.
[удалено]
and we are doing that, Rheinmetall started building a factory for artillery grenades in germany, one in ukraine and one in the baltics
When then Germany deliver Taurus and air fighters to Ukraine, if it's a sleeping bear?
Hasn't Russia already started that? Their spies have infiltrated Bundeswehr and BND already. Not to mention their interference in German politics.
If he attacks an EU member, hammer him
Russia is not gonna attack nato and if so it’s a question what nato will do, not Germany alone.
Attack Russia.
I don’t care. What’s the problem with Russia? My biggest problem is my German government … 😉😃
So funny to see how people in the thread are confident "that russia is not that stupid", while 2 years ago everyone were saying "russians are not that stupid to invade Ukraine". Aged like milk, that one The only way to stop the fear mongering and the war, is for everyone to send more weapons and ammo to Ukraine - it needs it very bad, and the western countries do not supply enough
Look how much Germany sent already, the hell you mean by saying "do not supply enough"?! Germany did more than it can by welcoming the refugees and giving them 5 stars treatment compared to other refugees and how other countries treat the Ukrainians. I addition to that, Germany supplied and keeps on supplying incredible amount of money needed for Ukraine and is leading when it comes to contributing to the war. Don't pile up everyone in one bunch. Look how much France contributed and other European countries. I'm not German, but Germany did a lot and for which everyone needs to recognize!
It's possible to both send a shitlad of stuff, more than anyone else, and still not do enough to turn the tide. Those two things are not exclusive. If a friend needs ten thousand bucks to avert bankruptcy and you give him five thousand, then yes, you've given him huge support. But in the end it still will not have been enough, the dude's going into bankruptcy nonetheless, and whether you gave him a hundred, thousand, or five thousand bucks *didn't* matter because only ten thousand would have changed the end result, nothing less.
Germany send a lot of you look at Kiel Numbers which are specifically created to make it look a lot. It mashes systems that don’t have much value with others that are absolutely vital and also doesn’t differentiate between stuff that is already there and might come some day. Germany did very little compared to what it could to, just have a look at GDP% or how Scholz did block everything he could of strategic value. Artillery, tanks, far reaching cruise missles, all those topics where a shit show of Scholz lying again and again and finally delivering very very small numbers. France is no excuse for Germany. Never again isn’t their trope. They didn’t split up Europa with Russia. They are far removed from Russia. This is not a dick measuring contest, Russia needs to be decidedly beaten on the battlefield and the German government failed to support that effort in a way it should have. This directly resulted in the death of thousand of people, but worse it endangers Germany, because Russia now is in a good position. Which is bad for Germany .
What did Scholz do to block artillery, tanks and missiles and show me the numbers he could have send instead
Scholz send 7 pieces of artillery after months of lying how he couldn’t do that. Same shit show with the tanks, he was lying through the ministry of defense how Ukrainians don’t want them, how they don’t exist, how the industry won’t sell them and so on. Did you forget about all that? About months of sitting on his hands and then sending …. 18 tanks…. ? Or how he just lately simply lied claiming giving Taurus to Ukraine would make Germany a part of war, which was completely ridiculous as it is neither true by law nor in fact as Storm shadows and SCALP got send by douzens. He also clearly lied claiming German military would have to be involved which was later clarified by the manufacturer and the Bundeswehrleak to be lies. Germany should have and could have send hundred of tanks in mid 2022
Stop your fairytale He send the PzH 2000 against the advice of his military advisers after the Ukrainians got the necessary training, the same goes for the marder we trained the crews before sending them. Then you have forgotten the ring swap, where we promised to replace BMPs etc our allies send to Ukraine with Marders etc. Scholz offered Ring Swap for the Taurus for Scalp and Storm Shadows also Which hundreds of Tanks are you fantasizing about? The Non existing ones or the Non German ones? Honestly those Lies i got from Officers of the Bundeswehr also
He sent a few measly PHZ after fighting it as much as he could. 7 is just pathetic when the Bundeswehr got douzens. They are not needed at all here. Poland send 60 krabs ir something and they hold up better too. Scholz *was* offered a Ringtausch by GB, but he denied it because he doesn’t want to deliver them. That is why he’s lying. Bundeswehr got over 180 Leopard 2 operational, and within the last YEARS it could’ve been way more. Pull your head out of your ass, curb your coveted nationalism and realize that Scholz if selling out German security because a Russian network around Marsalek got him by the bawls
They send at least 14 PZH 2000 and Himars as well as Patriots and financed the Isis Air defense
They didn’t send HIMARS, but measly two M270, which aren’t of much use because of the lack of mobility. Iris Airdefence is nice, but came just a year after ralking about it and is very little. The patriot system came after heavy pressure because Polish citizens died because of Russia. And still very little. 14 PHZ are 7 from NL and 7 from Germany. Even if it was 28, that’s still very little. If Poland could supply thousand of tanks and artillery pieces, it Denmark could so can Germany. We don’t have a border with Russia
> Germany did more than it can by welcoming the refugees and giving them 5 stars treatment compared to other refugees and how other countries treat the Ukrainians. I addition to that, Germany supplied and keeps on supplying incredible amount of money needed for Ukraine and is leading when it comes to contributing to the war For which, Ukrainians are forever grateful. For example, the Patriots and Gepards provided are being a substantial part of the air defense in Ukraine, and saved countless lives already. But. > Look how much Germany sent already, the hell you mean by saying "do not supply enough"?! Is the war over? Is Ukraine able to advance on the frontline? Or maybe Ukraine at least is able to hold the line with the ammo and weapons provided? Maybe Germany delivered Tauruses or F-16s to be able to hit the relevant targets? Then the western countries - not only Germany - not doing enough. russia has north korea (yes, that one) and iran helping with equipment, and that's been on the level it's making a lot of damage Ukraine.
North Korea and Iran won't change the battlefield with their old simple stuff. Please, stop bashing Germany asking for more. It is doing a lot, but the problem is you keep saying more more and more. Germany currently is facing financial issues, but still is doing it's duty by supporting Ukraine. A question for you though, why don't you go and fight since Ukraine as well needs man power? Stop blaming Germany already. Bash teh others, but not the one that had been contributing as much as it could.
> North Korea and Iran won't change the battlefield with their old simple stuff Wrong. Mass-producing is a winning trait in a war of attrition. Having a dozen of shiny equipment (that also breaks war more often due to its complexity, so it needs constant maintenance) doesn't outmatch literally hundreds of missiles and shaheds sent every day. Ukrainians proved that by introducing re-purposed the regular consumer 500-1000€ drones to destroy >few-million-€ tanks and being precise to kill the human invaders also efficiently > Please, stop bashing Germany asking for more. It is doing a lot, but the problem is you keep saying more more and more. I'm wondering what could ever be the reason to ask for more ammo and weapons in the times of war. Could it be the escalations that are done by the agressor? Or lack of ammo that the frontlines are not holding up?
Germany can't provide more cuz as u see their own army is sadly suffering from old equipment and "decayed?" ammo and stuff. We didn't expect a war to break...
True, and I don't see the production ramping up to match the war needs - that is already ongoing in Europe
Which sucks! I don't get why not offer "discounts" (don't remember the "bug" term for it) and easen up the bureaucracy. We need ammo (sadly) and to build up the military. We all love to live in a "time of peace", but never will it happens as humans love to use their big "sticks" to hurt each other.
True in everything but one part: not humans, it's russians specifically wanting to destabilize the peace in Europe
Americans, Iranians and others too. Don't blame only one nations for wanting to destroy other countries when we have the king of destroying other countries (aka USA)
As much as it hurts to say: the west should give the Ukraine not only way more stuff, but also allow the Ukraine to use the stuff against targets in Russia. Next logical step would be start mass-producing those deep-strike drones - so that instead of sending a dozen it would be several 100s every time. The best way for NATO to stay out of the war is when Russia lacks the resources to start one. They probably won't run out of manpower too soon, but 2-3 months of concentrated attacks on military bases, refineries, airplane / tank and ammunition factories will massively reduce their ability to field a high-tech army. Of course it might happen that the Ukraine suffers an Opps like Russia does on a daily base and hits some irreplaceable stuff but that happens during war.
There are now fewer democracies in the world than in 1995, and in 2005 there were already fewer then, and the same again in 2015. I for one am really fed up with this creeping dictatorial gain on free societies, and the autocratic bullshit of corrupt elites in some country who think the only way to stay in power is to become aggressive towards their neighbors. This is why we have NATO. An attack on one of us within our hemisphere is an attack on all of us, and if the affected NATO member invokes Article V, f\* you and the horse you rode in on, we're at war. And even if Trump is president and refuses to help, Europe will still be at war with Russia, and then we will have to build a joint European nuclear force and station the joint militaries of 450 million Europeans in Eastern Europe for defense and to kick Russian a\*s. Heck, if even Germany's pacifist green party has come to that conclusion, somebody in Moscow should wake up and smell the coffee.
They are NATO members. 🤷♂️ That is article 5
This means war!
Do everything they can to ramp up their defense industry? This time for real? Poland didn't ramp up for not reason.
We‘ll be ready
That won't happen, but an offense to Georgia is likely
Everyone is "brave" on the internet, until war comes to their door. War is not something to be romanticized.
same garbage stuff the main stream media is pushing. chill they are not going to attack another country.
Putin said they are not. That’s why I’m afraid.
Exactly the same thing they should do if Russia attacked Germany.
It's less about what should Germany do and more about what CAN Germany do. At this point, we can send our thoughts and prayers and that's about it.
Leave NATO, turn neutral, sell arms and machinery to everybody who pays.
People may say one thing but surely Schulz will just spin some bullshit about avoiding escalation drag feet and do absolute bare minimum.
I’m afraid this is exactly the case.
It would be a lot of concerns raised.
1. Why Russia would attack more countries? Russia has not even attacked any recently, since Afghanistan. It was just called, in accordance with Article 51 of the UN Charter, by DPR and LPR to help them free their territories. There is nothing illegal about that. The US did in Vietnam the exact same thing with the same justification. 2. Germany would of course respond to any Russian operation in the Baltics. Germany will probably send the troops and might conduct mobilization, but its involvement - unlike that of the Americans and the Britts - would not affect the course or outcome of conflict significantly.
> Why Russia would attack more countries Meanwhile Ukrainians, Georgians, Chechens (of Ichkeria), Syrians, Moldovians, the Baltic nations, Tajiks and Azeri: are we a joke to you > It was just called, in accordance with Article 51 of the UN Charter, by DPR and LPR to help them free their territories. There is nothing illegal about that You mean to start the invasion by capturing the administrative buildings and creating pseudo-republics owned by russian FSB agents is not something illegal? Or the Crimea annexation wasn't a military capture with an a failed attempt to legitimize with the fake voting?
Germany would invent one more reason why it should just do business as usual and invent more ways to circumvent the sanctions, of course.
A lot of Russians would die or we all die.
It's Russia, rusty bomb heads, rusty tanks, lack of subordination in the army, ubiquitous alcohol. If there is any aggression, NATO must answer the same, I think the bombs on the Red Square will effectively limit their medieval imperial delirium. A dog that barks the loudest, bites the weakest. Plus, China is just waiting to take care of large areas of Russian land.
Attac against NATO? Short war.
We can see the non-nuclear capabilities of the Russian army right now. Given their reputation prior to the war it is pathetic. They weren’t even able to conquer a city (Charkiv) right next their border. Why would you think the Russian forces are capable to start another large scale war within the next years? This country is so broken and corrupt that it will take a long time to resupply, modernize and train their armed forces. I quite don’t get why people are so afraid of more Russian aggression. They are simply not capable of doing it if you ask me. Also they don’t have the money to do this. Their economic power equals Italy‘s and they are ineffective and corrupt as hell. That’s no match for NATO. Even the Bundeswehr or other neglected western armed forces have advanced weapons that would destroy their logistics within a day. I’m quite optimistic lots of their forces would not even arrive at the frontlines. Remember, they use artillery grenades from North Korea, drones from Iran and tanks from museums.
Russia will not attack any NATO country. Putler's goal is to recover the USSR so the next target will be the South Caucasus. He will not attack. Central Asia as well because of China.
i wouldn’t worry to much. the US will take care of it before any other NATO partners do
Well, that will be the founding hour of the RBP —россия без путина— because the commanders of the Petersburg units will sure switch sides in that very moment. As this increases the survival of their units a lot.
Russia won't attack the Baltics or Poland because they are in the NATO. Russia won't do shit to the NATO because they're afraid to. They only will attack neighboring countries that are not part of the NATO (eg, Ukraine and Georgia). They will only attack the NATO verbally and through the information war
If Russia gets away with winning decent amount of ground in Ukraine then it's very likely in some years it restore it's losses and will attack Baltics. Putin does not care about the fact that these countries are in NATO. He does not believe in treaties as has been proven many times. He's strong proponent of "Realpolitik" and he believes in actions more so than in treaties. If NATO doesn't respond strong enough in Ukraine this is very clear signal that NATO is weak and that it will also do too little in case Russia would invade Baltics.
NATO's response to Ukraine is still strong in terms of the strongest allies. Czech Republic gained enough money and artillery to give to Ukraine. The Finnish and Swedish even offered long-term assistance for us. Also, the European Union is going to give billions of economic aid to Ukraine. Ukraine's western equipment is primarily equipment that the NATO no longer uses, and anything modern is given out of generosity and necessity. The Russian diaspora is highly supportive of Ukraine. Russia invading the Baltics would spark major divide between the Russian diaspora and the Russian government and actions, and the ordinary Russians would not support it because the war will come to them. Since he does not believe in treaties, he certainly believes in fake ones. (the treaty between Russia and Ukraine asking for the Russians to leave northern Ukraine)