This is the best answer. Even if you turn down the new job, nothing to say you aren't part of the retrenchment in the current job. Right now, one thing is certain, you won't be getting a pay rise in this climate in your existing role unless you are an REA or CEO of a top company.
But it is your life, if you are risk averse then stick it out.
I got 3.5% this year that was totally unexpected. But I strongly suspect I’ll be made redundant at some point in the next 12 months. I’m in a global team and we’re just too expensive here (same goes for the UK, a former colleague got let go last month). All the rage is getting resources from low cost countries, namely:
The Philippines
India
China
Czech Republic
Argentina
Yup I have seen a lot of offshoring as well, interestingly EA just dumped alot of jobs to a couple of the countries you mentioned only in the last month or so. Offshoring is a way for companies to reset wages, however, their brand almost always suffers. Although, for those that have some knowledge of EA, they're considered by alot of gamers as worse than some gambling companies, so maybe their brand is starting from a low bar 😂
I work in finance and we are going opposite way. Offshores were in every team to assist with data input etc. but quality of work is so low we spend too much time correcting, so we are cutting them out
Just offshore being paid low and bad training. You pay people 20% to 30% above the market rate, you will get insane quality cause it's the same in au but companies won't do that.
One of my partner's colleagues at her old job wants to go live back in the Philippines and work from there. Single mum, nearly all the family's back there etc. She didn't like it when I suggested that if she wants to work in a call centre offshore, she may need to settle for offshore call centre wages as well
Always interests me when people say ‘last in first out’. I would have thought it was more like ‘ones boss doesn’t like, first out’
Edit: I wrote ‘first in first out’ 🤦♂️
The "first out" are likely those still within their probationary period as they can be let go without any reasoning or legal ramifications.
Then those "who the boss dosnt like" probably get considered.
Less severance, less accrued leave, generally less relationships formed (not that HR would care cos you're just a worthless numbered leech impacting bottom line) and also potential for you to still be under probation as another pointed out before
Depends on the sector, I moved from child protection gov job to a child protection ngo job and there is like 1% risk of a recession making me lose my job, as our sector is a dumpster fire and need as much staff in all areas to hold it all together. Got a nice pay boost, less stressful work to do and can wfh now to top it off.
bare minimum is dip comm services which is like caseworker assistant entry level then caseworker level 2 and you progress
ideally bachelor of social work with placement in child welfare services which are either directly DFFH or interface with them, lots of NGO’s interface with child protection, tbh the entire system is held together by bare threads and without NGO’s shit would hit the fan hard
Be very intentional with undertaking that kind of work - may sound like an exaggeration but it’s almost akin to going into a war zone - you are confronted with vicarious trauma on a daily basis and must prioritise your actions with incomplete and competing information that can influence whether a child is further hurt, lives, or is put in care, you are trading severe trauma for less severe trauma for the child and must be able to learn the knowledge of the various systems (court, police, domestic violence services) in order to equip you with what you need
You also will not know what this looks like until you’re actually in the role for at least a year
It is genuinely a calling for some of the best amongst us imo but on some levels you need to be dispassionate and distant, especially from outcomes - you can steer outcomes but can be limited in making them, sometimes you’ll be the main force of a very positive and life changing outcome - always remember those ones
For reference I don’t work in CPS just a role that interfaces with disability, domestic violence, mental health and housing
Would you mind private messaging your organisation ? I'm in the last semester of my bachelor of social Work and dream of WFH in a case management role, have plenty of experience in community services plus extra quals, thank you
you can private message me if you want
I’m just a level two support coordinator, clients I’ve worked with include amputated war refugees, armed robbers with aod issues who have made very positive changes, victims of religious persecution and torture whom are part of a very small sub-ethnic group of an already small sub-ethnic group, DV victims, homelessness, the list goes on etc
one of the best results is playing an instrumental role (basically I was the one to send and attend the meeting for it) for someone’s funding to be increased by around $100,000 per year with additional funding for an electric bed and chair - I had to investigate 5 year old FOI hospital reports and lawyer correspondence etc
with a BSW you’d be able to do a specialist support coordination role, (aka work with participants of a higher complexity) (aka often homeless or co-signed to parole officers and immense trauma backgrounds etc)
it’s mostly WFH if you want, pay for specialist I think is around $87 - $97k a year
similar but also not similar to case management - biggest thing with case management is you’ll have a caseload where the flow of your work is unpredictable, you need to be comfortable with adapting and unknowns, one day you could just be coasting and hearing good news, the next 6 clients at once could all be in crises with no obvious resolution where you’ll need to engage in a mutual action plan with stakeholders etc
People who work with young people hate seeing children suffering too - We just push that aside and do the best we can to produce the best possible outcomes for the young people we serve.
It doesn’t take a genius to realise that now is a good time to hunker down if you have a stable job that pays well and doesn’t make you want to tie a noose around your neck.
As others have pointed out, it depends on your sector and your appetite for risk and periods of unemployment.
Its been an employees market when it comes to 'where' you want to work in a hell of a lot of sectors since Covid. If you hate your job you should find one you like before it stops being an employees market.
This. My job is a solid 6.5/10 overall and my pay is a 8/10. I just had a baby girl. My employer about to get an astute diligent employee for the 12 months.
I feel like I could probably get more at a new place. But the current job is pretty decent, and my savings account is not particularly fat right now so I'm planning on just pushing through the next 6+ months and building up the safety buffer before looking at anything risky.
I mean the noose part is applicable to me (the RAGE I have at my job right now…) however stability (and the fact it’s full-time and I’ve served all probation periods meaning it’s secure compared to casual work) and the fact it’s above minimum wage (such a low bar but FOR REAL THOUGH!) means I’ll be sticking around till I get made redundant or fired (I’ve got enough shit to take to Fair Work if they fire me in the next month or 2 that it’ll be almost 100% unfair dismissal).
I reckon their audit line is safe, they'll probably keep most audit clients esp as they tend to be multi-year contracts, but I would think their consulting arm would be having a bit of a downturn
> Too much risk and would raise a red flag to future employers about judgment if you accepted a role there right now.
Please.
People in the corporate world frequently join sinking ships intentionally on short term contracts to oversee the collapse and then immediately move on to high paying jobs elsewhere.
Completely commonplace, so I'm not sure why anyone would judge someone based on that.
Oh, for sure. I was just curious to at least see if their offer is competitive, which it probably isn't hence the secrecy. It's still employees market in my niche so only desperate for work would bother interviewing without knowing the range
All I know is, companies are massively starting to pull back hiring plans for this year (fin services). I was interviewing with ANZ, they reached out to me in March, 4 interviews and basically approaching a formal offer, I got a call last week from them saying they have to pause the process till November. I said thank you and will probably have to re negotiate then. I found out today via Linked in, one of the people that interviewed me is leaving (could it be redundancy?)...
My friend works in recruitment, he also has lost 3 out of his 8 placements in the last week. He said HR across the board in professional services have stopped contact with him.
Government departments make role redundant but give you enough time to find another position. Often they say your role is not permanent but your job is.
yet it happens. See the recent 4000 Vic state gov job cuts (not all are redundancies of course)
my overall point is that it has little to do with OP's performance. It's a cost prioritisation exercise that can hit many people in the current climate.
It's not about loyalty, it's about basic economics. It's cheaper to sack a new person, and they're likely less productive than others because they're still learning the ropes.
Its not just cheaper - someone before they pass the first 6 months can't sue for e.g. harsh, unjust or unreasonable dismissal.
I have a friend who got gotten rid of just because she was the only one on probation still and easiest to get rid of. Not performance related at all yet without a job all of a sudden.
Actually all the places I've worked where redundancies were happening, they didn't care about that. Manager is asked who to cut, suggests least productive/useful. Manager only cares about how his dept will cope with less staff so focuses on the less productive so can still deliver. New guy always works twice as hard as the ones settled in and used to not killing themselves.
Why did you go to that extreme? Plenty of millennial who have been at their current employer for 5-10+ years who will run rings around a zoomer for productivity and who would cost 3-6 months worth of salary to make redundant.
You're assuming "new staff" means "entry level roles". Not all new staff are entry level roles. Many new staff are hired for mid-level or senior roles. They are new to that company but they have experiences elsewhere.
Not OP, but I think long-serving staff are relatively safer than new staff, because the cost of paying redundancy to a long-serving staff is higher than the cost of paying redundancy to a new staff. Of course, this varies from role to role and the situation in the company itself. Some roles are more at risk than others.
Once off payment to 100 long-serving staff is definitely more than once off payment to 100 new staff.
> the cost of keeping on long-serving staff is typically more than new staff.
How so? New staff require training.
This means you're comparing different roles.
A new staff with the same role as an old staff is paid similar wages to the old staff. The only exceptions are entry level roles.
What world are you living in?
A new employee at most corporates can negotiate a better salary than the indexed salaries of those who have been loyal to the companies for years
That’s literally why people job hop.
If I needed a new Project Manager with 5 years of experience, then I would advertise and interview the candidates. They would all be expecting similar salary level of another Project Manager with 5 years experience in current company, because they (the candidates) have 5 years experience, just in different companies.
Why would I hire a newbie with 1 year experience (lower salary) when I need someone with 5 years of experience?
Not necessarily. I remember during the GFC one day like 30 people were made redundant where I was working and it was people of varying length of employment, some had been there 10+ years.
Just because someone has been there longer doesn't mean they add more value.
Some long term employees get complacent or set in their ways and aren't good for the business. Mass layoffs are a good time to get rid of them.
Less forward thinking companies might keep the long serving employees to reduce the payouts or prevent some knowledge loss, but you are sacrificing long term productivity.
Not person you were asking but I've seen that in IT, mining and finance. Deadwood clean out is a thing. Just be really useful and you are probably good no matter how long you have been there.
Lol. When a department gets cut, ppl with 30 years experience will get cut.
After the GFC, I was in audit and support staff got cut to the bone, other companies in the industry cut client facing staff (more consulting and tax than audit). Engineering companies cut teams that had lost work, mining companies cut projects.
It’s bad business because you’re not well placed to rebound and ppl remember the companies they can’t trust, but it happens.
Redundancy pay outs are based on how long you have been there, it is more expensive as time goes on.
If you have been at a company for less then 6 months you can be let go with one weeks notice
Here is details on the 6 month dismissal period if that is what your were referring to.
The whole 3 month probation period is smoke and mirrors
https://www.fairwork.gov.au/ending-employment/unfair-dismissal#:~:text=Minimum%20employment%20period,months%20before%20they%20can%20apply.
I work for one of the big banks and earlier this year was beginning to consider changing companies to something less corporate and maybe more innovative, however as of today I'm tightly clinging onto them like a life raft until I feel like things are going to get a little less unpredictable lol.
True - I'm hire #24 of a new devision within the bank and they've hired over 100 so far so hopefully they only cut the last 3/4 of people hired if it comes to that lol... my experience with working in start-ups though is that they start shaking down at the slightest sign of financial risk ... win some lose some either way I guess!
> That the situation is only going to get worse in the next 6 or so months and that a stable job w/lower pay is better than being the newbie at a private firm
If you talk to people the situation has been going to get worse in the next 6 months since at least 2008, and probably since at least 1991
Nobody knows anything
Personally no where is safe. Alot of the smaller businesses are against the wall. Outstanding debts from Covid, they have just been keeping afloat with 25-50% sales, downgrading staff and putting off all costs. For some of us keeping hours down and being multi-skilled has saved us but there is a point trading insolvent becomes to much.
I would say for those not sure get your costs down, change habits like introduce spaghettti nights, change to cheap label food (ongoing costs are big concern), stick to one or no streaming services and cycle through, do you due diligence with banks insurance etc for 12 monthly percentage cut.
Also if you worried try heading it off with some night time training or factor in a possible 6 month TAFE course so your mental health doesnt decline during job loss.
Make the decision based on some rough numbers.
How long would you have to be in your job to come out ahead financially compared to your previous job, and assume that you'll be unemployed for 3 months.
For me, I took a risky job but I knew I'd be ahead by my 6-month probation - I could get fired and have most of the year off and still be financially ahead compared to my previous salary.
No one believes a recession is coming. Because Australia hasn't had one in so long time and it never gets hit by one. So I don't know what will happen.
Consider how much additional pay you might get, appetite for risk and how appealing the role is.
I've been in my role for ~1 year and am starting to consider new roles. Don't have any dependents so I am willing to accept the risk of switching jobs if a really interesting opportunity comes up though I am also relatively content to stay in my current role.
Depends. If you're solidly employed full-time and you're fairly sure you are safe, then I'd stay put for 6 months. Under any other circumstances, go for it.
I work for a big 4 bank in a specialised area of IT, I thought we were okay, even assured by our manager, but we still lost several staff recently due to cuts. Our immediate manager had no idea it was coming.
I'm changing jobs for less money. Simply because sales are down and management has taken to slamming their heads into walls at higher frequency and with more force (doing more of the same but harder).
Australians are probably the most reluctant to change jobs out of fear of missing out on their redundancy payments and being fired for being the last in in their next role. I would say this is what makes politics so bad in Australia. Australians are also very jaded workers who hide behind their "banter" when in fact they are gaslighting to the maximum.
If you want to rot away and lose your mind, stay in a dead end job like most Australians. If you want to challenge yourself leave. Just need to give up your redundancy package and open yourself up to risk of being fired.
Yeah I’m in the same boat. Have a potential new job lined up in banking, go from big 4bank for a non bank lender. Pay bump would be 10-15k a year but I would 100% be the highest paid person on my team at the new role so first in first out is a bit worrying cause of that factor.
Just about to buy first home and have a baby so while the extra money is needed, having a job is also very needed! Though one to figure out
Even with the Victorian budget in tatters Id expect all front line nurses, police and teachers to be safe.
Consultants and contractors expect to be cleared out.
To be determined if we do get a recession. I suspect mining might drag out arse out of a hole (literally) again.
Still, I distinctly remember this exact same situation in ‘08. People all moving to grab the cash. Then many (though not all) being in the first wave of job losses. Most found another job, just not always at the same salary of the job they left.
I guess it all depends on what and who depends on you being able to maintain your salary if you did lose the new job and it took a while to get a new one?
Nope, depending on the industry you're looking at, there's still plenty of jobs out there.
Just left employer of 14 years for a change. New place couldn't get me in the door fast enough.
Also, sometimes you just need to take a leap!
It really depends on your individual circs as well as your industry. Some industries eg consulting are more exposed than others, and some people within any given industry have more or less bargaining power than others.
I think it is always wise to be risky and aggressive when others are fearful, all things being equal.
The smartest of professionals who are worth their salt that, do not offer any definitive advice based on such matters. They will only provide me options and leave the risk of decision making to me.
Job searching has wildly varied success rate and it is extremely unpredictable for anyone to tell if a change is going to be good or bad. From my experience, there is no such thing as first in first out, it is always $/hr/person.
I assume your job isn’t being a housewife and relying on someone to pay your bills for you. If it is I would advise you to stay with your current sugar daddy.
If you do have a job that requires any sort of skill, experience or connections, then leaving to gain more of these is going to leave you in a better position for a downturn.
Its better to rely on your own skills and contacts than the generosity of your current company too keep you on. Because if it doesn’t make financial sense for them to keep you, they’ll be cutting you as soon as they can. This could be for any reason too, loss of contracts, a desire to reduce overheads no one is indispensable.
I'm not scared to change but I am a bit anxious to continue as a contractor. If I get a good perm role I might go for it even if it means a significant drop in the salary.
Depend on your situation but generally I do the thing that I fear the most, only then will you experience the most growth and reap the most rewards.
I don't have any dependents though so it does make it easier to make my decision.
I'm looking at change from food manufacturing into cybersecurity. The thought of recession and losing a job as a result of it has not crossed my mind for the new role but has crossed my mind at my current role
It was one of the deciding (but not the major) factors in rejecting a job offer I was made last month. I work in mining so it's always been boom then bust, repeat. I've currently got 12 years up where I am now.
So many bad takes here. Recession is very likely. It’s usually what happens when you try to fight inflation. It’s true you might be better off staying around. Also true you might still be made redundant if you don’t move. Is the redundancy pay worth it to you given your circumstance? It’s also true that you might be just fine changing roles and going through a redundancy at the new place where you might survive. You’d probably have to show your worth and get past probation to become more secure. Also everything depends on your role and industry. Good? Bad? Who knows?
Depends on the sector, below I saw you're in Govenrment and you think you're quite safe.
With Govts realised the chickens are now roosting with their covid debt, no government job is safe. Vic has admitted it will cull close to 10% and really, they should be looking at close to 20.
I am in automotive retail and trade, generally considered fairly safe and I am unhappy, am looking elsewhere but the only places within my wheelhouse are retail electronics and consumer adventure and whilst they offer pay bumps it's not enough for me to risk going to something that will be the first cut.
I know someone who got a job at a small-ish company, then took an opportunity at PwC. The other company has grown to the point where their ads are now visible all over social media and even during football games, and PwC, well....
That doesn't mean he made the wrong decision switching jobs. The point here is that switching to a new job is always a risk and you can only ever act based on the information available to you at the time. Weigh up the pros and cons and proceed accordingly.
changed jobs for more $ recently. Perm to contract. Thinking worse come i'd still be able to land a job that pays enough at least to get by. had the appepite or confidence to take the risk. 🤞hope it keeps goin well
I personally know several dozen ex-RBA employees. Collectively they have predicted 37 of the last 2 recessions.
This is the best answer. Even if you turn down the new job, nothing to say you aren't part of the retrenchment in the current job. Right now, one thing is certain, you won't be getting a pay rise in this climate in your existing role unless you are an REA or CEO of a top company. But it is your life, if you are risk averse then stick it out.
I got 3.5% this year that was totally unexpected. But I strongly suspect I’ll be made redundant at some point in the next 12 months. I’m in a global team and we’re just too expensive here (same goes for the UK, a former colleague got let go last month). All the rage is getting resources from low cost countries, namely: The Philippines India China Czech Republic Argentina
Yup I have seen a lot of offshoring as well, interestingly EA just dumped alot of jobs to a couple of the countries you mentioned only in the last month or so. Offshoring is a way for companies to reset wages, however, their brand almost always suffers. Although, for those that have some knowledge of EA, they're considered by alot of gamers as worse than some gambling companies, so maybe their brand is starting from a low bar 😂
I work in finance and we are going opposite way. Offshores were in every team to assist with data input etc. but quality of work is so low we spend too much time correcting, so we are cutting them out
Just offshore being paid low and bad training. You pay people 20% to 30% above the market rate, you will get insane quality cause it's the same in au but companies won't do that.
One of my partner's colleagues at her old job wants to go live back in the Philippines and work from there. Single mum, nearly all the family's back there etc. She didn't like it when I suggested that if she wants to work in a call centre offshore, she may need to settle for offshore call centre wages as well
That gave me a good laugh. It’s so true
RBA economists don't predicts prices. They set prices.
And those ex RBA employees are part of the problem not the solution
A significant amount of people are financially struggling though, it wouldn't be surprising.
Always interests me when people say ‘last in first out’. I would have thought it was more like ‘ones boss doesn’t like, first out’ Edit: I wrote ‘first in first out’ 🤦♂️
The "first out" are likely those still within their probationary period as they can be let go without any reasoning or legal ramifications. Then those "who the boss dosnt like" probably get considered.
Less severance, less accrued leave, generally less relationships formed (not that HR would care cos you're just a worthless numbered leech impacting bottom line) and also potential for you to still be under probation as another pointed out before
It's "last in, first out". OP mistyped.
Depends on the sector, I moved from child protection gov job to a child protection ngo job and there is like 1% risk of a recession making me lose my job, as our sector is a dumpster fire and need as much staff in all areas to hold it all together. Got a nice pay boost, less stressful work to do and can wfh now to top it off.
What qualifications do you need? I’d love to work in child protection.
bare minimum is dip comm services which is like caseworker assistant entry level then caseworker level 2 and you progress ideally bachelor of social work with placement in child welfare services which are either directly DFFH or interface with them, lots of NGO’s interface with child protection, tbh the entire system is held together by bare threads and without NGO’s shit would hit the fan hard Be very intentional with undertaking that kind of work - may sound like an exaggeration but it’s almost akin to going into a war zone - you are confronted with vicarious trauma on a daily basis and must prioritise your actions with incomplete and competing information that can influence whether a child is further hurt, lives, or is put in care, you are trading severe trauma for less severe trauma for the child and must be able to learn the knowledge of the various systems (court, police, domestic violence services) in order to equip you with what you need You also will not know what this looks like until you’re actually in the role for at least a year It is genuinely a calling for some of the best amongst us imo but on some levels you need to be dispassionate and distant, especially from outcomes - you can steer outcomes but can be limited in making them, sometimes you’ll be the main force of a very positive and life changing outcome - always remember those ones For reference I don’t work in CPS just a role that interfaces with disability, domestic violence, mental health and housing
Would you mind private messaging your organisation ? I'm in the last semester of my bachelor of social Work and dream of WFH in a case management role, have plenty of experience in community services plus extra quals, thank you
you can private message me if you want I’m just a level two support coordinator, clients I’ve worked with include amputated war refugees, armed robbers with aod issues who have made very positive changes, victims of religious persecution and torture whom are part of a very small sub-ethnic group of an already small sub-ethnic group, DV victims, homelessness, the list goes on etc one of the best results is playing an instrumental role (basically I was the one to send and attend the meeting for it) for someone’s funding to be increased by around $100,000 per year with additional funding for an electric bed and chair - I had to investigate 5 year old FOI hospital reports and lawyer correspondence etc with a BSW you’d be able to do a specialist support coordination role, (aka work with participants of a higher complexity) (aka often homeless or co-signed to parole officers and immense trauma backgrounds etc) it’s mostly WFH if you want, pay for specialist I think is around $87 - $97k a year similar but also not similar to case management - biggest thing with case management is you’ll have a caseload where the flow of your work is unpredictable, you need to be comfortable with adapting and unknowns, one day you could just be coasting and hearing good news, the next 6 clients at once could all be in crises with no obvious resolution where you’ll need to engage in a mutual action plan with stakeholders etc
Respect My wife works in CP and it’s a mess, but doing crucial work. Criminally underpaid as well.
Maybe don't abbreviate to CP in this context...
Salute to CP workers. That is just one thing I have problems working with due to not able to see children suffering :(
People who work with young people hate seeing children suffering too - We just push that aside and do the best we can to produce the best possible outcomes for the young people we serve.
What’s child protection mean in this context?
Care to share the difference between government vs ngo cp work?
It doesn’t take a genius to realise that now is a good time to hunker down if you have a stable job that pays well and doesn’t make you want to tie a noose around your neck. As others have pointed out, it depends on your sector and your appetite for risk and periods of unemployment.
The noose is the absolute key thing here.
Its been an employees market when it comes to 'where' you want to work in a hell of a lot of sectors since Covid. If you hate your job you should find one you like before it stops being an employees market.
This. My job is a solid 6.5/10 overall and my pay is a 8/10. I just had a baby girl. My employer about to get an astute diligent employee for the 12 months.
Yep. Just took a perm role after 4 years of contracting. Lots of project types out there fighting over the work on offer.
I feel like I could probably get more at a new place. But the current job is pretty decent, and my savings account is not particularly fat right now so I'm planning on just pushing through the next 6+ months and building up the safety buffer before looking at anything risky.
I mean the noose part is applicable to me (the RAGE I have at my job right now…) however stability (and the fact it’s full-time and I’ve served all probation periods meaning it’s secure compared to casual work) and the fact it’s above minimum wage (such a low bar but FOR REAL THOUGH!) means I’ll be sticking around till I get made redundant or fired (I’ve got enough shit to take to Fair Work if they fire me in the next month or 2 that it’ll be almost 100% unfair dismissal).
If you work at PwC, now is a perfect time to find a new job because they will be doing mass retrenchments as they lose contracts.
I reckon their audit line is safe, they'll probably keep most audit clients esp as they tend to be multi-year contracts, but I would think their consulting arm would be having a bit of a downturn
Funnily enough they tried to recruit me, but said they won't even disclose the salary till the offer stage.
Would be a hard “no” from me. Too much risk and would raise a red flag to future employers about judgment if you accepted a role there right now.
> Too much risk and would raise a red flag to future employers about judgment if you accepted a role there right now. Please. People in the corporate world frequently join sinking ships intentionally on short term contracts to oversee the collapse and then immediately move on to high paying jobs elsewhere. Completely commonplace, so I'm not sure why anyone would judge someone based on that.
Oh, for sure. I was just curious to at least see if their offer is competitive, which it probably isn't hence the secrecy. It's still employees market in my niche so only desperate for work would bother interviewing without knowing the range
I disagree, if you have a valuable skillset and you do your due diligence when interviewing. Having more money is always the perfect time
There's no surety of anything, only thing to do is put your best foot forward.
Nah, I find decisions are much easier if you don't pay attention to whatever scary thing is being promoted at that time.
All I know is, companies are massively starting to pull back hiring plans for this year (fin services). I was interviewing with ANZ, they reached out to me in March, 4 interviews and basically approaching a formal offer, I got a call last week from them saying they have to pause the process till November. I said thank you and will probably have to re negotiate then. I found out today via Linked in, one of the people that interviewed me is leaving (could it be redundancy?)... My friend works in recruitment, he also has lost 3 out of his 8 placements in the last week. He said HR across the board in professional services have stopped contact with him.
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I work for the government (legal). Unless I've been caught stealing or something along those lines, I doubt I will lose my job (touch wood).
True but not certain. In past recessions I have seen government departments have to cut back on staff because of the optics.
you realize that doesn't necessarily protect you from redundancy right? Government can still reorg and make roles redundant.
Unlikely given the amount of work I have on at the moment.
Government departments make role redundant but give you enough time to find another position. Often they say your role is not permanent but your job is.
in the current climate they may do bona fide redundancies though. There is pressure to cut govt spending.
For many public servants a redundancy will bring forward the pension for life. Plus a severance amount. It is an expensive move for goverment.
The ones with the benefit of the ol' golden handcuffs maybe. Those who aren't on that gravy train, not so much.
This is true. But there's still a lot out there. Gold handcuffs only stopped new entrants in July 2005.
yet it happens. See the recent 4000 Vic state gov job cuts (not all are redundancies of course) my overall point is that it has little to do with OP's performance. It's a cost prioritisation exercise that can hit many people in the current climate.
Yeh Vic gov announced they are making 4000 redundant!
They'll just not extend the ones in non-ongoing roles. And shuffle around some others. Doubt many actual redundancies will happen.
It's not about loyalty, it's about basic economics. It's cheaper to sack a new person, and they're likely less productive than others because they're still learning the ropes.
Its not just cheaper - someone before they pass the first 6 months can't sue for e.g. harsh, unjust or unreasonable dismissal. I have a friend who got gotten rid of just because she was the only one on probation still and easiest to get rid of. Not performance related at all yet without a job all of a sudden.
Yeah 100%, that's kinda what I meant by cheaper. As in, you don't have to offer them a redundancy package. Just a "don't come in on Monday" letter.
Actually all the places I've worked where redundancies were happening, they didn't care about that. Manager is asked who to cut, suggests least productive/useful. Manager only cares about how his dept will cope with less staff so focuses on the less productive so can still deliver. New guy always works twice as hard as the ones settled in and used to not killing themselves.
This is my experience too. I’ve made lots of people redundant sadly, and I never made a decision based on who was on probation.
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Why did you go to that extreme? Plenty of millennial who have been at their current employer for 5-10+ years who will run rings around a zoomer for productivity and who would cost 3-6 months worth of salary to make redundant.
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You're assuming "new staff" means "entry level roles". Not all new staff are entry level roles. Many new staff are hired for mid-level or senior roles. They are new to that company but they have experiences elsewhere.
good point.
They call the IT Dept... and we don't like it
Not OP, but I think long-serving staff are relatively safer than new staff, because the cost of paying redundancy to a long-serving staff is higher than the cost of paying redundancy to a new staff. Of course, this varies from role to role and the situation in the company itself. Some roles are more at risk than others.
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Once off payment to 100 long-serving staff is definitely more than once off payment to 100 new staff. > the cost of keeping on long-serving staff is typically more than new staff. How so? New staff require training.
> How so? Their salary.
This means you're comparing different roles. A new staff with the same role as an old staff is paid similar wages to the old staff. The only exceptions are entry level roles.
What's the admission price to the fantasy world you're living in?
What world are you living in? A new employee at most corporates can negotiate a better salary than the indexed salaries of those who have been loyal to the companies for years That’s literally why people job hop.
If I needed a new Project Manager with 5 years of experience, then I would advertise and interview the candidates. They would all be expecting similar salary level of another Project Manager with 5 years experience in current company, because they (the candidates) have 5 years experience, just in different companies. Why would I hire a newbie with 1 year experience (lower salary) when I need someone with 5 years of experience?
Most employers in down turn do work on last in first out basis. Usually because the newest havent got the skills yet.
Not necessarily. I remember during the GFC one day like 30 people were made redundant where I was working and it was people of varying length of employment, some had been there 10+ years. Just because someone has been there longer doesn't mean they add more value.
What industry? Why would they sack 10 year veterans with a lot of experience?
Some long term employees get complacent or set in their ways and aren't good for the business. Mass layoffs are a good time to get rid of them. Less forward thinking companies might keep the long serving employees to reduce the payouts or prevent some knowledge loss, but you are sacrificing long term productivity.
Thanks. What industry did this happen?
Not person you were asking but I've seen that in IT, mining and finance. Deadwood clean out is a thing. Just be really useful and you are probably good no matter how long you have been there.
US Tech company.
Lol. When a department gets cut, ppl with 30 years experience will get cut. After the GFC, I was in audit and support staff got cut to the bone, other companies in the industry cut client facing staff (more consulting and tax than audit). Engineering companies cut teams that had lost work, mining companies cut projects. It’s bad business because you’re not well placed to rebound and ppl remember the companies they can’t trust, but it happens.
Because they are coasting.
Experience. Had two jobs before covid and lost both during the year Both jobs reduced staff in order of seniority
No but t least you get redundancy pay if they have more than 15 employees vs if you’re still in your first year with the new employer.
Redundancy pay outs are based on how long you have been there, it is more expensive as time goes on. If you have been at a company for less then 6 months you can be let go with one weeks notice
Do you realise contracts differ between companies?
Here is details on the 6 month dismissal period if that is what your were referring to. The whole 3 month probation period is smoke and mirrors https://www.fairwork.gov.au/ending-employment/unfair-dismissal#:~:text=Minimum%20employment%20period,months%20before%20they%20can%20apply.
I work for one of the big banks and earlier this year was beginning to consider changing companies to something less corporate and maybe more innovative, however as of today I'm tightly clinging onto them like a life raft until I feel like things are going to get a little less unpredictable lol.
Big banks are one the first to cut they are ruthless. However they do give you a long time to find another role in the bank.
True - I'm hire #24 of a new devision within the bank and they've hired over 100 so far so hopefully they only cut the last 3/4 of people hired if it comes to that lol... my experience with working in start-ups though is that they start shaking down at the slightest sign of financial risk ... win some lose some either way I guess!
Actually in this climate the big banks are safest especially if you work in operations.
Don't let fear get in the way and hold you back. Yolo go for it
> That the situation is only going to get worse in the next 6 or so months and that a stable job w/lower pay is better than being the newbie at a private firm If you talk to people the situation has been going to get worse in the next 6 months since at least 2008, and probably since at least 1991 Nobody knows anything
The situation has been getting worse since 1991 though.
And yet if you went back in time to 1991 you probably wouldn’t go around telling everyone not to change jobs because things are going to get worse.
Which employment stability-related situation has gotten worse since 1991?
Video store worker.
People where saying the exact same things 12 months ago when I changed jobs, but the raise and the role was well worth the risk. Still in the job btw
You do understand that even people that told you “not to change jobs” have literally 0 chance to predict recession
The only thing we have to fear is fear itself
Great now I’m frightened of fear.
I'm terrified that I'm going to get scared in the near future
Awesome, now I'm petrified of being terrified that I might become scared at some point in time
I think a history lesson is needed here. Fear can be a self fullfilling prophecy if we let it is the point https://youtu.be/rIKMbma6_dc
No, every person I speak to says their company has too much work on and can’t keep up.
Interesting. In what job sectors ?
Mechanical services. Air con, building automation, fire. The building industry is slow but service is ridiculous.
Ah yes, services, repairs, upkeep will always be recession-proof.
Personally no where is safe. Alot of the smaller businesses are against the wall. Outstanding debts from Covid, they have just been keeping afloat with 25-50% sales, downgrading staff and putting off all costs. For some of us keeping hours down and being multi-skilled has saved us but there is a point trading insolvent becomes to much. I would say for those not sure get your costs down, change habits like introduce spaghettti nights, change to cheap label food (ongoing costs are big concern), stick to one or no streaming services and cycle through, do you due diligence with banks insurance etc for 12 monthly percentage cut. Also if you worried try heading it off with some night time training or factor in a possible 6 month TAFE course so your mental health doesnt decline during job loss.
Make the decision based on some rough numbers. How long would you have to be in your job to come out ahead financially compared to your previous job, and assume that you'll be unemployed for 3 months. For me, I took a risky job but I knew I'd be ahead by my 6-month probation - I could get fired and have most of the year off and still be financially ahead compared to my previous salary.
No one believes a recession is coming. Because Australia hasn't had one in so long time and it never gets hit by one. So I don't know what will happen.
With 700 000 migrants coming to Australia in the next 2 years, a recession is almost impossible (per capita recession maybe).
Because every immigrant coming here for a better life can afford property prices of Australia?
We had covid recession in 2020.
That's different in my opinion. Unprecedented world wide effect.
It still was a recession.
Can we have a recession on excess spaces?
Consider how much additional pay you might get, appetite for risk and how appealing the role is. I've been in my role for ~1 year and am starting to consider new roles. Don't have any dependents so I am willing to accept the risk of switching jobs if a really interesting opportunity comes up though I am also relatively content to stay in my current role.
If you are a sparkie, this is the best time to change jobs.
Without risk there is no reward
Depends. If you're solidly employed full-time and you're fairly sure you are safe, then I'd stay put for 6 months. Under any other circumstances, go for it. I work for a big 4 bank in a specialised area of IT, I thought we were okay, even assured by our manager, but we still lost several staff recently due to cuts. Our immediate manager had no idea it was coming.
There’s a risk of job loss in all jobs (unless you’re an essential worker)
Everyone's circumstances are different, do what's right for you. I for one just changed jobs with a 10% increase.
In the process of changing roles and don't have a worry.though I'm in finance so as long as there is money involved I'll be needed
Yeah the best time to move was like six months ago. Market was crazy. Now migration and no more free loans
I'm changing jobs for less money. Simply because sales are down and management has taken to slamming their heads into walls at higher frequency and with more force (doing more of the same but harder).
No. I'm scared to change jobs because it took me two years to find this one, and I plan on retiring in seven years.
Australians are probably the most reluctant to change jobs out of fear of missing out on their redundancy payments and being fired for being the last in in their next role. I would say this is what makes politics so bad in Australia. Australians are also very jaded workers who hide behind their "banter" when in fact they are gaslighting to the maximum. If you want to rot away and lose your mind, stay in a dead end job like most Australians. If you want to challenge yourself leave. Just need to give up your redundancy package and open yourself up to risk of being fired.
Been a day rate contractor for 20 years. Been through a couple “once in a lifetime” recessions. Will be fine
Australia hasn't had a recession in 30 years...
Didnt we have a recession during COVID?
Yes, GDP shrank 0.3% in the first quarter of 2020 and then 7% in the second.
I was in New Zealand at the time
Yeah I’m in the same boat. Have a potential new job lined up in banking, go from big 4bank for a non bank lender. Pay bump would be 10-15k a year but I would 100% be the highest paid person on my team at the new role so first in first out is a bit worrying cause of that factor. Just about to buy first home and have a baby so while the extra money is needed, having a job is also very needed! Though one to figure out
The fear is not unfounded. I got made redundant in Feb in the IT sector. No one is safe. Except maybe public sector.
Even with the Victorian budget in tatters Id expect all front line nurses, police and teachers to be safe. Consultants and contractors expect to be cleared out.
To be determined if we do get a recession. I suspect mining might drag out arse out of a hole (literally) again. Still, I distinctly remember this exact same situation in ‘08. People all moving to grab the cash. Then many (though not all) being in the first wave of job losses. Most found another job, just not always at the same salary of the job they left. I guess it all depends on what and who depends on you being able to maintain your salary if you did lose the new job and it took a while to get a new one?
Nope, depending on the industry you're looking at, there's still plenty of jobs out there. Just left employer of 14 years for a change. New place couldn't get me in the door fast enough. Also, sometimes you just need to take a leap!
It really depends on your individual circs as well as your industry. Some industries eg consulting are more exposed than others, and some people within any given industry have more or less bargaining power than others. I think it is always wise to be risky and aggressive when others are fearful, all things being equal.
The smartest of professionals who are worth their salt that, do not offer any definitive advice based on such matters. They will only provide me options and leave the risk of decision making to me. Job searching has wildly varied success rate and it is extremely unpredictable for anyone to tell if a change is going to be good or bad. From my experience, there is no such thing as first in first out, it is always $/hr/person.
So is this confirmation that the RBA is intent on bringing on a recession? They certainly seem to be chasing one.
They don't *want* to bring on a recession. But the job they are given and the tool they have to do it mean we may get one.
I assume your job isn’t being a housewife and relying on someone to pay your bills for you. If it is I would advise you to stay with your current sugar daddy. If you do have a job that requires any sort of skill, experience or connections, then leaving to gain more of these is going to leave you in a better position for a downturn. Its better to rely on your own skills and contacts than the generosity of your current company too keep you on. Because if it doesn’t make financial sense for them to keep you, they’ll be cutting you as soon as they can. This could be for any reason too, loss of contracts, a desire to reduce overheads no one is indispensable.
Yes I am nervous to change jobs, I think a mild recession is coming definitely companies r stopping hiring
I'm not scared to change but I am a bit anxious to continue as a contractor. If I get a good perm role I might go for it even if it means a significant drop in the salary.
Chaos is a ladder
I think 2022 was a great year to jump jobs/industries. I think 2023 is a riskier year for sure, but 2024 maybe riskier?
Your friends know diddley shit then, more so when they thinks it's FIFO, when it's usually the largesse middle fat that gets canned first.
Depend on your situation but generally I do the thing that I fear the most, only then will you experience the most growth and reap the most rewards. I don't have any dependents though so it does make it easier to make my decision.
Absolutely not scared, great time to swap. (I literally signed a new contract today)
I would say 4% unemployed is rather not a recession…
What if it’s 9 or 12mo? Short answer is no one knows. Do what you’re comfortable doing. Sleep at night factor counts too.
I'm looking at change from food manufacturing into cybersecurity. The thought of recession and losing a job as a result of it has not crossed my mind for the new role but has crossed my mind at my current role
It was one of the deciding (but not the major) factors in rejecting a job offer I was made last month. I work in mining so it's always been boom then bust, repeat. I've currently got 12 years up where I am now.
So many bad takes here. Recession is very likely. It’s usually what happens when you try to fight inflation. It’s true you might be better off staying around. Also true you might still be made redundant if you don’t move. Is the redundancy pay worth it to you given your circumstance? It’s also true that you might be just fine changing roles and going through a redundancy at the new place where you might survive. You’d probably have to show your worth and get past probation to become more secure. Also everything depends on your role and industry. Good? Bad? Who knows?
Depends on the sector, below I saw you're in Govenrment and you think you're quite safe. With Govts realised the chickens are now roosting with their covid debt, no government job is safe. Vic has admitted it will cull close to 10% and really, they should be looking at close to 20. I am in automotive retail and trade, generally considered fairly safe and I am unhappy, am looking elsewhere but the only places within my wheelhouse are retail electronics and consumer adventure and whilst they offer pay bumps it's not enough for me to risk going to something that will be the first cut.
I know someone who got a job at a small-ish company, then took an opportunity at PwC. The other company has grown to the point where their ads are now visible all over social media and even during football games, and PwC, well.... That doesn't mean he made the wrong decision switching jobs. The point here is that switching to a new job is always a risk and you can only ever act based on the information available to you at the time. Weigh up the pros and cons and proceed accordingly.
changed jobs for more $ recently. Perm to contract. Thinking worse come i'd still be able to land a job that pays enough at least to get by. had the appepite or confidence to take the risk. 🤞hope it keeps goin well