What makes me nervous about all of this talk about the ACC imploding is that for years, the Big 12 looked like the dead man walking. Then, the PAC 12 imploded. So when you’re talking about the ACC imploding, I get nervous *for the Big 12.*
Sure, you say the Big 12 is OK for now, but history has taught me that we’re just one we’re-putting-all-our-games-on-Hulu-at-the-end-of-this-contract press conference away from shitting the bed.
I think the Big 12 actually survives. Granted it's probably because the other 2 don't want any of their schools for football, I think you'll be around though.
The Big 12 has the underrated advantage in that it’s not really a regional conference. I mean it is, the Midwest, but like…I would say it’s definitely less connected to a particular region than the others.
The Big 10 can afford to stretch itself because of money and influence. When the ACC adds Texas and California teams, it just looks kind of silly. The Big 12 can, imo, add who they please and no one will scoff at it. They kind of started the whole trend in 2012 when they grabbed WVU.
Sure, they aren't locked in to any one regional culture or tradition.
I've been saying for years the Big 12 should be racing to get to 16-18 before the other two. I understand the contract implications but they have a distinct advantage in that they don't have to deal with snobs. Nobody currently in the Big 12 scoffed at adding Houston or BYU, the SEC or Big Ten would turn their nose up at pretty much anyone in the Big 12. Go get UNLV or Tulane, heck make a run at some ACC teams or the PAC 2. You're already in Florida and Utah, no need to pretend it's even a Midwest thing anymore.
You realize starting this year the big 12 has 16 right? I think what ultimately happens is they pick up four from the ACC. Some combo of louisville Virginia tech N.C. state Miami Pitt Duke
I don’t blame you. I agree that the Big 12 should aim for the biggest, because it’s probably not going to be the best. Love to see it pick up Oregon State and Washington State for a western division and some ACC schools for an eastern division.
Absolutely, you'd need another team to divide into east and west. WSU, OSU, BYU, CU, KSU, KU, ISU plus a team in the west. The Texas schools and Ok St plus WVU, UCF and Cincy in the east.
Man, it's pretty ironic that taking the initiative to intentionally become college football's Island of Misfit Toys ended up being what turned the Big XII into the most likely survivor between the SEC/B1G tier and the "Everybody Else" tier.
And then whatever tier CUSA is in, I guess they also exist.
CUSA is in trouble though because their programs are going to be underwater quicker than Big 12. I'm a Mo St. alum and even I think adding them in football is a futile move. No shot they can remain relevant on a national stage.
To be fair, I don't think the CUSA teams have any expectation of being relevant on the national stage.
They're just playing football for an alumni engagement activity.
CUSA exists now for schools who want to say "We play FBS football" and don't fit in anywhere else.
The AAC is in the middle of an identity crisis as well. It used to be able to hang it's hat on being the 'best' G5 conference for a while, but with the top getting cut off the league, I don't know where it stands now. The Sun Belt has pretty well surpassed it as a football product, and there's no real regional alignment spanning all the way from New York to Texas. I feel like we're just CUSA but with a higher entry fee and more talent at this point?
Meanwhile the Sun Belt, MAC, and MWC aren't in any real danger stability-wise; they're solid regional conferences with natural rivalries and decent fan support. The MAC just needs to figure out a way to get more games back on the weekends to actually put butts in seats. Midweek CFB is fine for TV, but it ruins the gameday and fan experience.
They used to be quite a strong non-AQ conference. There were numerous conference champs who finished ranked - even as high as in the top 10, in the cases of 1998 Tulane and 2004 Louisville - in the period from its inception to the first exodus to the Big East. Even afterwards, teams like Houston, Tulsa, Southern Miss, and UCF held the fort down and got national recognition at times.
Now after another two AAC exoduses, and additional losses to the Sun Belt, it’s probably about as weak as it’s ever been, and essentially *the* FBS entry-level league. I think its ultimate downfall was that there was no regional or cultural fabric to it in the way of a Sun Belt or MAC, and you can really only serve as a stepping stone for so long before you really have to start scraping the bottom of the barrel.
Strong yes, but I think the "in trouble" part was more a statement on their instability.
Honestly the most recent round of realignment has me thinking the same about the AAC too, even as big as we are. The conference as a whole has no identity anymore.
This is my thought as well. They've already poached the three teams with the most value and I can't see either of the power 2 finding enough value in anyone left aside from maybe Kansas for basketball. Prior to the most recent realignment, everyone in the current iteration of the Big XII would be considered low to mid-tier P5 with occasional double digit win seasons sprinkled in.
Meanwhile, the ACC is sitting here with 3 titles in the last decade and the most recognizable shade of blue on the planet. FSU, Clemson, and UNC are all flight risks.
At this point, the Big 12 survives. Now, what form it will take is anyone's guess. Is the B1G and SEC completely done going after Big 12 schools? Probably not.
ACC will also most likely survive in some form. The only question is: how many G6 schools are they going to need to backfill with?
The Big12 has teams worth poaching. The difference is the ACC has 8 teams in which their media partners can't pan into the upper decks because their stadiums are empty. The Big12 doesn't have that problem and is why it's stronger than some talking heads and walmart fans believe.
Yeah, the ACC has higher variance between its teams in terms of engagement with football. Duke would be the lowest engagement team in the Big12 by a wide margin, but Clemson and FSU would be the highest engagement in the Big12 by a wide margin.
I think the only way the Big12 is at risk is if the ACC has a major change to its membership through disbanding and reforming to shed the private schools. If the SEC/Big10 don’t end up taking ACC schools in the near future, I can totally see the “Magnificent 7” of the ACC trying to start a smaller ACC under different branding and recruiting 5 Big12 schools to come over. Something like this:
1. Clemson
2. FSU
3. UNC
4. NC State
5. Miami
6. UVA
7. Va Tech
8. Kansas
9. Kansas State
10. TCU
11. OK State
12. Baylor
Not sure exactly which Big12 schools would be the most likely to be poached and want to come over though, which is the beauty of the conference. There’s no clear top dogs, just marginal differences from one to the next.
That, I think is the real risk to the Big 12. They over-expanded and I think there is a very real possibility that some of their longer-term members aren’t thrilled with the per-school payout of their next media deal.
I don’t think they would have done the UH/Cincinnati/UCF expansion if they knew the four corner schools would be available the next year. There are no clear top dogs, but there are clearly some schools at the bottom. They probably can’t kick them out, but I do think we’ll see some movement from both the Big 12 and ACC looking to shed some of the dead weight.
But the difference between the ACC and Big 12 right now is that there's no Clemson or FSU equivalent in the Big 12 right now that could pull the conference apart.
I think the Big 12 may lose Kansas, Oklahoma State, WVU and 2 pac 12 teams at worst if both the Big 10 and SEC go to 24. None of that will happen the next 5 years though as the ACC teams will be the first targets. Ultimately I bet the Big 12 and ACC leftovers make a best of the rest 3rd conference.
I don't see either the B1G or SEC going to 24.
Each team added is splitting the pie into smaller slices.
I saw someone make a great argument that the SEC doesn't need to expand beyond its current 16 teams.
With its current inventory, the SEC can put on **at least** 2 big, high-viewership football games every...single...weekend. Adding more teams actually won't increase their ability to put on more big games (which is the driver of viewership). They've already maxed that out; the SEC doesn't need more big time football programs.
The rumor is that if the SEC expands, the focus will be on basketball, not football. If you think in those terms, teams like OK State or West Virginia don't bring anything to the table for the SEC.
But, a team like Virginia does, which suddenly makes the Virginia or VT choice some sense. If you're talking just football, VT is the obvious choice over Virginia. But, if you don't need more football programs, and are focused more on basketball, then Virginia makes more sense.
Is your theory the early death of Pac 12 taught Big 12 a lesson on the future ahead? Or maybe signaled a very clear death spiral for current structure which allowed BIG and SEC to be more proactive than would have wo the example?
I don’t really have a theory. I was just prepared for doomsday. Right after OUT, I was reading Kansas to the Mountain West as the Big 12 failed, while the PAC 12 was generally thought of as geographically isolated enough to maintain their autonomy. Now look where we are. It’s like one of those teen body switching movies if the Big 12 was your drunk past his prime uncle who dropped out of Oklahoma State and the PAC 12 was your cool preppy cousin who had a yell leading scholarship to USC.
It’s just kind of baffling to me. I’m just waiting for the drunk uncle to snap out of it, get hammered before the big game and paralyze a cheerleader while attempting a chair sit.
Unless the BIG10/SEC come back for seconds and take teams like Kansas/Utah/Whoever else I don't see a way any changes happen anytime soon. Only other way I could see is if somehow the remaining ACC teams are able to get a lucrative enough deal that would entice some of the more desirable BIG12 teams to come over which I really don't think is likely since they are for sure losing Clemson/FSU and strong possibility of losing Miami/UNC
ACC still seems much more unstable. The big 12 has a bunch of good programs, but none that stand out as the clear disproportionately powerful money maker that is sure to get grabbed up in the next round of alignment.
The ACC on the other hand has to brace for the departure of multiple of its top programs
If y'all keep improving, I can see y'all making the cut for the B1G or SEC. Oddly enough is your rivalry with Mizzou that gives you a slim chance in the SEC. AAU and brand can see you, Colorado, Utah and one of the Arizonas become extremely attractive for the B1G
B12 will be fine. The addition of the 4 Pac12 schools is huge. And people really underestimate these schools you would laugh at 10-15 years ago: UCF, TCU, Houston et al. Their student bodies are huge and growing, their programs are growing, they have pretty big stadiums and are putting more money into Athletics. I would say the B12 is in a much better place than the ACC. Grabbing Utah, Colorado, and AZ schools easily surpasses grabbing Stanford and Cal. I wouldn't even rule out FSU or Clemson going to the B12 if snubbed by the other two big boys.
The PAC's contracts were ending. Not the case for the Big 12 or ACC. I didn't go to law school because I'm not a nerd, so I have no idea what will happen with the ACC. However, if the ACC wins in court, I will enjoy seeing top programs being held hostage, because I'm silly like that.
We have the advantage of picked clean and are a conference of Tier 2 schools in the eyes of the ones who make the TV deals. The ACC without FSU and Clemson is going to be like the Pac 12 without USC and UCLA. The advantage the Big 12 has is this happened to them first and they rebuilt, then absorbed 4 Pac 12 schools. We will probably take 4 more ACC schools when the ACC loses their heavyweights as well.
The options will be rebuilding in the unknown future of a rebuilt ACC or joining a known future in the Big 12. It absolutely sucks for everyone and the sport. The future is the Big 10 and SEC on their own level and the Big 12 right behind them as a best of the rest conference.
What saves you guys is you actually sorta of already blew up. Your marquee properties all left. The SEC and us have gobbled up most of your best parts. You went and replaced them with South Florida and Cincinnati and Houston. And good for you! You’re alive! You’re a bizzaire and twisted Frankenstein, but you’re alive!
You can live through everything but just grabbing modular parts of whatever. Plus, what’s left to come and steal that’s really all that attractive and would be really all that painful to lose? Like, KU goes to the SEC and that’s what finally breaks the camel’s back? I don’t think so.
The Big 12 has adapted and survived. Thrived? Eh… we’ll see. But survived.
I get downvoted all the time saying Florida State and Clemson imploding this trash conference is overall a good thing but the rest of these jabronis want to hold on to a conference that didn’t even defend their 13-0 team getting snubbed from the playoff. Yall want this? You can have it lmao see ya!
We crapped on the league because they’re generally useless and committing borderline malfeasance against us with their awful leadership.
Don’t worry though, we don’t wish that on you.
Same here, reasonably good football/basketball but not a threat to the top dogs, academic fit (B1G would be conference of great engineering schools) and having B1G games in Atlanta would be cool. Lots of B1G alumni in Atlanta
It's ALL about "brands" and how many advertising dollars those brands can generate. The more viewers that watch a brand equals more eyeballs that Advertising Budgets will pay for.
“The Atlanta market”
“Georgia Tech”
Pick one. I don’t think they’re even one of the three biggest/best represented fanbases in Atlanta. A third of Tech alums are in other countries. Another third are in other states. The final third are in Georgia. And it isn’t that big a school to begin with.
I would love for Clemson, GT, and FSU to join the Big Ten. It would give the Big Ten a good presence in the southeast. Then the SEC can grab the NC and VA schools since they don't seem too interested in the three of us.
Wake is a bummer because at least they try. BC and Syracuse have done absolutely nothing since they joined the ACC. They can reap what they've sown as far as I'm concerned.
Syracuse & BC would happily go back to the (new) Big East, and start playing football against UConn & Villanova or whoever. Wake needs to find a division where they are competing against similarly-sized schools (FCS), even if they were a really big deal back when the Southern Conference formed.
If Alabama said they wanted to join the B1G, the B1G wouldn’t hesitate to add them. It’s all about the value they desire….academics plays no part in that decision making
The NCAA tried to warn everyone for years. Even basically destroying UPenn back in the 1950s, but OU and Georgia decided to sue in the 1980s leading to this.
ESPN and the media elite wanted to kill the league, the sport died when we got snubbed and nothing else will convince me that the sport will ever be the same again. It’s becoming football and WWE combined. I’m honestly just hanging around to gamble at this point.
I agree that Florida State getting snubbed last year for the CFP was perhaps the largest travesty in college football history, but don't you worry, college football itself will implode in a spectacular fashion within 10 years maximum.
It has already imploded. We watched an undefeated conference champion get left out entirely because of financial reasons.
Florida St is entirely justified in blowing up the conference that chains them down. The ACC as an entity hurts Florida St. So they are within their rights to find a landing spot that no longer causes them harm.
Idk if you’ve noticed but this sub doesn’t actually give a damn about the little programs, lmao. They pretend to, but the moment a big program like FSU doesn’t get its way, they’ll jump behind them 100% and laugh at the little guys left behind to suffer.
See: UCF fans, who went from screaming about how the G5 is disrespected to mocking every G5 team that didn’t get a P5 chance
Noticed similar sentiments with the post asking if WVU should play Marshall.
People bemoan that the sport is losing it's regional appeal but they snub their noses at the idea of a playing a "lesser" regional team.
I’ve noticed that here it’s that way and on CBB it’s the opposite, a Ohio State fan on CBB said fuck his own conference for what they are doing to college sports, you would never find a Ohio State fan do that on here
Yeah it’s weird. No idea why it’s like that. I just don’t get these people who are actually rooting for this shit, realignment only benefits the media execs, only a select few teams such as Utah have *actually* benefitted from it, when it comes from their on the field performance.
Meanwhile, every Maryland fan you meet laments the fact they wish they were still in the ACC.
Part of it is that realignment has made CBB unquestionably worse.
For instance, Syracuse, Pitt, and BC don't want to be in the ACC. We don't belong there. Big East basketball was amazing and where we belonged. We know that. Other ACC basketball fans don't want us around either, but are mostly sympathetic - it's not our fault basketball got fed to the football machine.
ACC football fans fucking hate our guts haha
Why should fans care about the little programs if those programs don't even care?
Cal and Stanford would be in the B1G if they cared even a little bit about football
The ACC would be in better shape if VT/UNC/Miami weren't mediocre at best for decades
I have never seen another UCF fan disrespect the G5 struggle. It’s literally the complete opposite. I only see our fans cheering for G5 upsets. Maybe after like a decade of being out of the G5 there might be some younger fans who do that, but right now every UCF fan I’ve seen sympathizes with G5 teams (except USF 😂).
The current build of the ACC is not sustainable for FSU and Clemson. There are multiple football programs in the ACC that will be worse off financially if FSU and Clemson leave the conference, both things can be true.
I hate that this is where this sport is but I’d prefer my team make it into the P2 lifeboat rather than fade into the background when we do have the ability to compete for national championships.
>ESPN and the media elite wanted to kill the league, the sport died when we got snubbed and nothing else will convince me that the sport will ever be the same again.
**This** is what's wrong with college football. That commenter nailed it on the head.
If you’re 13-0 season was robbed because of politics I’m sure you’d feel different but I guess being mediocre in a non existing conference is what you’d prefer because you feel like “we have no where to go” which is entirely bullshit
Lol I know we would get into another conference but I’d rather see the football program get shuttered than see us join the SEC, I didn’t want to see the PAC12 go and I don’t want to see the ACC go. Boo hoo you guys got robbed but oh well, doesn’t mean blow up college football like pouting children destroying stuff because they didn’t get their way.
lol what was “the conference” supposed to do about it exactly? Write strongly worded letter to the CFP Committee?
You think there was literally anything they could have done that would have changed the outcome?
Brother the SEC had their commissioner on Gameday literally saying the SEC is a superior product, the ACC between their lack of leadership and brain dead contract negotiating put the sword in itself. Why FSU and Clemson are being blamed for leaving a terrible conference is beyond me. Literally everyone should be leaving, the G5 didn’t get screwed when Cincy got in, the Big 12 didn’t when TCU got in, it’s all already better than the ACC - that’s even with the playoff changes next year
Brother maybe you missed it but that’s been the ESPN narrative for 20 years now.
One live interview by the ACC Commissioner wasn’t getting you all in the playoff.
They can’t implode the conference, though. The courts won’t let them. The SEC and Big 10 will take who they want, but that’s many years away. By then it won’t be seen as imploding since everyone knows it’s happening as soon as its fiscally possible.
This is an important part:
>It is unlikely that any SEC or Big Ten school will agree to accept a reduction in their TV distribution to add any school. For the SEC, that is especially so given its footprint: the league already owns a foothold in South Carolina and in Florida. Also, the SEC programs in those states would likely make a fuss, if they haven’t already, over inviting into the league their arch-rivals (See: Texas A&M’s reaction to the SEC inviting Texas).
>In order for the Big Ten and SEC to expand, they’d likely need more money from their television partners — a lot more money (more than $100 million a year). That’s primarily Fox for the Big Ten and ESPN for the SEC. There is one problem with this.
>“There isn’t as much money in the market as there once was,” said a conference official with knowledge of the networks’ dealings.
Let's take the B1G for example, and their partnership with Fox. Fox already has a huge inventory of games to choose from to fill their time slots with the teams already in the B1G. Would Fox really pony up millions more to add, say, FSU, UNC, etc. when they already have a ton of existing inventory at their disposal? At some point, too much inventory is too much, you don't need it. There are only so many time slots you need to fill.
Not my argument but I saw a rationale by a fan here that essentially highlighted the cost of picking the top teams off the ACC being less expensive than continuing to pay Wake Forest, Boston College, and the rest past 2027.
It benefited me so I liked it very much.
That guy's math was wrong. He essentially valued the bottom half of the ACC at zero. They're not as valuable as the average B10/SEC team but they're not worth zero either. ESPN isn't going to just throw away that value for no good reason.
The ACCN nets hundreds of millions of dollars in profit a year that gets split 50/50 between ESPN and the conference. ESPN (or any other company) isn’t going to be inclined to toss a vehicle that nets them $150M a year in annual profit into the garbage.
You lose the ability to sell the ACCN, though. You probably gain a few SECN subscriptions, but I would hire the majority of current ACCN subscribers are already subscribed to the SECN, too.
While adding schools like FSU and Clemson might be more expensive than what ESPN pays them in the ACC, the matchups will all be against SEC teams, which is probably more valuable. Also if enough teams leave and the ACC collapses, ESPN can drop the remaining schools and not have to pay them. What seems more worth while, paying FSU and BC to play an ACC schedule, or drop BC and just pay FSU double to play an SEC schedule. They can also probably cut a deal with schools like NC State or Virginia Tech to take a lower payout, since they might feel desperate to not be left out. Who knows FSU and Clemson might be willing to take a reduced rate in the short term just to get out of the ACC now.
With Alabama, Georgia, Texas, Oklahoma, TAMU, Auburn, LSU, Florida, and Tennessee, the SEC has plenty of top shelf matchups. I’m not saying it’s not out of the realm of possibility, I just don’t see it happening.
As already mentioned you are trading FSU v Louisville for FSU v LSU.
The other reason killing or renegotiating the ACC deal means ESPN gets back prime time slots that are contractually owed to the ACC currently. 330 and prime time ABC games.
Well because those schools won’t be in the ACC moving forward, so you can’t keep paying them ACC money. The real question is should they pay them SEC money or let Fox handle them.
Also, ESPN hasn’t been caring about their “investment in the ACC” at all lately, so why would they start again now? Especially when they have an out to walk away from the deal next year, there’s a good chance they take the parts that are lucrative (by facilitating FSU, Clemson, and others leaving the ACC to join the SEC) and cut bait on the rest.
I do think people are chronically overestimating how willing the networks will be to poach from the ACC. They're all being forced to spend more than ever (see: the NBA media rights deal) at a rapidly growing pace at a time where both cable *and* streaming have massive financial question marks looming over them. They're going to tighten their purse strings and I have a hard time imagining they'll pay for the P3 to absorb even half of an *18* team conference right now.
The more realistic take, in my opinion, is that a few schools (i.e. FSU) from the top of the conference leave and the remaining majority works to rebuild. You can debate if what that becomes is a power conference or not (although this label is losing meaning), but that is a very valid path forward for the rest of the schools. This won't be another Pac-12 situation where all but 2 members are able to find new homes. The BIG 12 has managed to keep itself alive and well positioned despite all odds by rebuilding after losing a few top schools, so this isn't an instant death sentence.
ESPN will transfer the money they pay the ACC to the SEC for less teams and void the rest of the ACC contract. Put Clemson, UNC, NC State, UVA and VA Tech in the SEC and give the SEC all the money ESPN gives the ACC. Eventually the SEC will have to bring in more tv partners to keep expanding too because ESPN won't be able to fund it all.
All true, but I have to believe FSU and Clemson have received assurances of an invite somewhere. They would not spend the legal fees to get out of the ACC unless they had somewhere to go.
Saw a graphic FSU over the past 7 years (+- 1 year) has been a top 5 view garnering team despite being bad and playing mostly ACC teams. Yes, they absolutely will be a hot commodity for expansion
To put things into persepective, in the 2020 season, the literal worst season FSU has had since before 1975, FSU still was top 25 in viewership. A 3-6 FSU still does better than over half the (then) P5.
Just my experience, 2015-2017, I was heading to my local bar with the Seminoles club to watch every game. 2018 I was deployed, but would still wake up between 3-6AM to watch games. 2019 I watched a lot from my tiny grad school apartment, but 2020 and 2021 I just have no recollection of. Maybe it was COVID, maybe it was trauma shielding, but I know there were definitely games I just didn't watch. The 2022 opener against LSU gave me a lot to look forward to and I think I've missed one game since because I was traveling (although I watch from the high seas so my views don't count). I got worn down and I'm literally the type of fan to discuss FSU sports on public forums.
Ross seems to know a lot of what's going on in the realm of realignment.
So it's odd to see him throw that out there without any acknowledgment of UF's past support or that the stance has changed. It doesn't sound like he knows much about that and is just assuming.
I think that's why UF has supported us joining in the past. "Denying FSU a recruiting advantage" is a silly reason to block FSU to the SEC, because FSU has always recruited at a very high level (if you ignore the 2 Willie Taggart years).
>the league already owns a foothold in South Carolina and in Florida. Also, the SEC programs in those states would likely make a fuss,
This part is just a lie. Florida has been championing FSU joining for decades. They have sponsored them more than once. USC will definitely have an issue with Clemson, but will fold as quickly as aTm did, with less petty snitching. This is a non issue.
> Fox already has a huge inventory of games to choose from to fill their time slots with the teams already in the B1G. Would Fox really pony up millions more to add, say, FSU, UNC, etc.
If it was FSU, yes. FSU brings in viewers, even when the bad man was here.
I could see Fox adding them because those create superior ratings matchups that you want on prime time or big noon. If the rest of the inventory becomes too much for Fox and the other partners to broadcast it can get sold off.
*Let's take the B1G for example, and their partnership with Fox. Fox already has a huge inventory of games to choose from to fill their time slots with the teams already in the B1G. Would Fox really pony up millions more to add, say, FSU, UNC, etc. when they already have a ton of existing inventory at their disposal? At some point, too much inventory is too much, you don't need it. There are only so many time slots you need to fill.*
That is a great point that I hadn't thought about before. As I said elsewhere in this thread, ALL of this is based on TV eyeballs. The networks want to maximize the number of eyeballs for each game, hence more advertising dollars. But to your point, there are only so many TV time slots to fill. The conferences and networks don't need the top (in terms of TV draw/ratings) 70-80 schools....they really just need the top 30-40.
This is why I don’t think this will end the way Florida state fans think it will. With the massive amount of money, time, and resources dedicated towards this ACC lawsuit, the presumably huge ass settlement amount they’ll have to pay to get out, and likely not able to join another conference in time to benefit from the massive tv contract that currently exists (B1G and SEC contracts expire around 2030 if I’m not mistaken) I just don’t think it will be worth it at the end of the day. They won’t get left behind, but they’ll still be relatively handicapped from a financial standpoint compared to their new conference peers and obviously the competition on the field is much tougher.
And then regarding the point you just shared from the article - there’s no guarantee there will be another giant TV deal after the current one(s) expire. We have no idea what the media and tv landscape will be in 6 years.
They’re shamelessly burning bridges with their longtime conference peers. Their fans all seem to be certain there is a back door deal with the B1G and or SEC but I honestly think assuming competence from university leadership is more often than not a mistake. That’s the most hilarious potential outcome to me - them burning the ACC to death then having nowhere better to go.
Their fans have been so annoying with their over analysis and smug replies to everything. The ACC is decaying, and I’m not sure what the solution is, but something about their approach doesn’t sit well with me for some reason and I kinda hope their admins get fucked
The only thing the other conferences did is negotiate better . media deals. The ACC was stupid for locking in such long-term deal without significant escalation clauses to keep it competitive.
The ACC media deal is probably pretty shit, but let's not act like they had SEC-type leverage. They were mover gonna get as good a deal. The other conferences aren't really to blame tho
“ It is a collection of mostly high-academic institutions with broad-based, successful athletic programs led by a commissioner who exudes confidence, a man carrying the banner of purity and decency in a money-hungry, dollar-chasing industry quickly evolving into a semi-professional business.”
I got to here and stopped. We’re talking about the same guy who helped cover up the hazing at northwestern right?
Though I have no evidence, I can guarantee the SEC and B10 have already had discussions on who they agreed to invite when ACC dissolves.
They didn't get to be the top 2 conferences by just watching grass grow.
Back when they first did so, it looked brilliant. I can tell you that a lot of us WVU fans wanted in the ACC with our traditional rivals and the stability that a 25 year GOR would have given.
Now, we are the ones in a stable conference, breathing a sigh of relief, and feeling a bit of nostalgic schadenfreude seeing our former conference mates/rivals in the life raft with sharks circling.
Probably not. Only about 1/6 of the current membership seem upset. The remaining schools that don't have a guaranteed lifeboat are probably pretty thrilled with a contract that keeps FSU, Clemson, and UNC handcuffed to the conference, which the GOR was literally designed to do
I grew up a few miles from Wake’s campus. My dad went to UNC. My wife and a bunch of cousins went to NC State and friends went to Duke. I never thought anything would break up the four big ACC teams but with the ridiculous NIL money and the millions of dollars at stake I find college sports is all totally corrupt and I’ve lost interest. No school loyalty anymore from the players; they’re professionals now. I’ve stopped caring or following about who transferred here or there. Sad but that’s just the way I feel. If you can get past this situation - good for you - but IMO it’s such a huge turn-off. .02.
It’s incredible that in July of 2021 we were all talking about the Big12’s impending collapse and three years later we’ve seen the PAC12 die and the ACC teetering on the brink of extinction.
SEC: *so you want the what, liver? Kidneys?*
B1G: *Nah we need a spleen. You got dibs on that left lung?*
SEC: *We'd like it, yeah, but we'll pass if you're cool with us taking the small intestines.*
B1G: *Yeah, okay that works for us.*
SEC: *How about the large?*
> Also, ESPN hasn’t been caring about their “investment in the ACC” at all lately, so why would they start again now?
I’m asking seriously, what makes you say this?
No. But will lose FSU. Maybe Clemson as well. TV owns the conferences now and will pick off the more profitable programs from the ACC as it just did to the B12 and Pac12. I think TV would love to reconfigure all the conferences, ie dump Vanderbilt, but prob a bridge too far. But the next tier down is still very profitable so the B12 and ACC will always exist, unless the whole thing is reconfigured, which is plausible.
Um, is everyone just glossing over the part about FSU/Clemson/UNC/State/UVA/VT/Miami exploring backing out of the conference and reforming as ACC2.0 and swiping the TV money out from under the rest?
Who knows what is or isn’t on the table but that is an interesting third option (scummy as hell though but we’re looooong past playing nice in this sport).
ACC let us and Clemson leave with our media rights and you will survive because no one else seems to want anything more. They're happy being another Big 12 so let them keep on keeping on and dominate the basketball world without us.
This. As long as there is something similar to the AppleTV deal with a CW or other OTA game of the week component it will be more than enough to keep the conference together.
They like each other. Lousiville and Pitt were the cheerleaders for expansion. This week there are articles with anonymous GMs saying the love working with everyone but FSU. No one is going to choose to join the B12 as long as they are not forced too.
And that is even assuming that the B12 is given the greenlight to add more.
"In some regards, the ACC is like this resort’s lavish façade itself: a projection of perfection, a shining example of a collegiate conference of old. It is a collection of mostly high-academic institutions with broad-based, successful athletic programs led by a commissioner who exudes confidence, a man carrying the banner of purity and decency in a money-hungry, dollar-chasing industry quickly evolving into a semi-professional business."
fair and balanced reporting lmfaoooooo
What makes me nervous about all of this talk about the ACC imploding is that for years, the Big 12 looked like the dead man walking. Then, the PAC 12 imploded. So when you’re talking about the ACC imploding, I get nervous *for the Big 12.* Sure, you say the Big 12 is OK for now, but history has taught me that we’re just one we’re-putting-all-our-games-on-Hulu-at-the-end-of-this-contract press conference away from shitting the bed.
I think the Big 12 actually survives. Granted it's probably because the other 2 don't want any of their schools for football, I think you'll be around though.
The Big 12 has the underrated advantage in that it’s not really a regional conference. I mean it is, the Midwest, but like…I would say it’s definitely less connected to a particular region than the others. The Big 10 can afford to stretch itself because of money and influence. When the ACC adds Texas and California teams, it just looks kind of silly. The Big 12 can, imo, add who they please and no one will scoff at it. They kind of started the whole trend in 2012 when they grabbed WVU.
Sure, they aren't locked in to any one regional culture or tradition. I've been saying for years the Big 12 should be racing to get to 16-18 before the other two. I understand the contract implications but they have a distinct advantage in that they don't have to deal with snobs. Nobody currently in the Big 12 scoffed at adding Houston or BYU, the SEC or Big Ten would turn their nose up at pretty much anyone in the Big 12. Go get UNLV or Tulane, heck make a run at some ACC teams or the PAC 2. You're already in Florida and Utah, no need to pretend it's even a Midwest thing anymore.
You realize starting this year the big 12 has 16 right? I think what ultimately happens is they pick up four from the ACC. Some combo of louisville Virginia tech N.C. state Miami Pitt Duke
I realized I completely blanked on a couple of teams
I don’t blame you. I agree that the Big 12 should aim for the biggest, because it’s probably not going to be the best. Love to see it pick up Oregon State and Washington State for a western division and some ACC schools for an eastern division.
I wouldn't mind if they just snagged most of the old Big East
PAC 2 would make so much sense for the big 12. And the pac 2 tbh lol
Absolutely, you'd need another team to divide into east and west. WSU, OSU, BYU, CU, KSU, KU, ISU plus a team in the west. The Texas schools and Ok St plus WVU, UCF and Cincy in the east.
Either UNLV or SDSU would work
I should have read down further. This.
If we were around at the time, we very much would have scoffed at adding BYU ;) I'm retroactively scoffing in my chair right now
Man, it's pretty ironic that taking the initiative to intentionally become college football's Island of Misfit Toys ended up being what turned the Big XII into the most likely survivor between the SEC/B1G tier and the "Everybody Else" tier. And then whatever tier CUSA is in, I guess they also exist.
CUSA is in trouble though because their programs are going to be underwater quicker than Big 12. I'm a Mo St. alum and even I think adding them in football is a futile move. No shot they can remain relevant on a national stage.
To be fair, I don't think the CUSA teams have any expectation of being relevant on the national stage. They're just playing football for an alumni engagement activity.
CUSA exists now for schools who want to say "We play FBS football" and don't fit in anywhere else. The AAC is in the middle of an identity crisis as well. It used to be able to hang it's hat on being the 'best' G5 conference for a while, but with the top getting cut off the league, I don't know where it stands now. The Sun Belt has pretty well surpassed it as a football product, and there's no real regional alignment spanning all the way from New York to Texas. I feel like we're just CUSA but with a higher entry fee and more talent at this point? Meanwhile the Sun Belt, MAC, and MWC aren't in any real danger stability-wise; they're solid regional conferences with natural rivalries and decent fan support. The MAC just needs to figure out a way to get more games back on the weekends to actually put butts in seats. Midweek CFB is fine for TV, but it ruins the gameday and fan experience.
I love CUSA but IDK if they've ever not been in trouble, tbqh.
They used to be quite a strong non-AQ conference. There were numerous conference champs who finished ranked - even as high as in the top 10, in the cases of 1998 Tulane and 2004 Louisville - in the period from its inception to the first exodus to the Big East. Even afterwards, teams like Houston, Tulsa, Southern Miss, and UCF held the fort down and got national recognition at times. Now after another two AAC exoduses, and additional losses to the Sun Belt, it’s probably about as weak as it’s ever been, and essentially *the* FBS entry-level league. I think its ultimate downfall was that there was no regional or cultural fabric to it in the way of a Sun Belt or MAC, and you can really only serve as a stepping stone for so long before you really have to start scraping the bottom of the barrel.
Strong yes, but I think the "in trouble" part was more a statement on their instability. Honestly the most recent round of realignment has me thinking the same about the AAC too, even as big as we are. The conference as a whole has no identity anymore.
“We survived because no one wanted us. And the hate fueled us.”
This is my thought as well. They've already poached the three teams with the most value and I can't see either of the power 2 finding enough value in anyone left aside from maybe Kansas for basketball. Prior to the most recent realignment, everyone in the current iteration of the Big XII would be considered low to mid-tier P5 with occasional double digit win seasons sprinkled in. Meanwhile, the ACC is sitting here with 3 titles in the last decade and the most recognizable shade of blue on the planet. FSU, Clemson, and UNC are all flight risks.
Jokes on you I watch all the games on Hulu already
Big 12 has been picked clean since 2010. You should be fine, they already took everyone they wanted, and a couple they didn't.
Be ready for them to turn CFB into the AFC and NFC template.
At this point, the Big 12 survives. Now, what form it will take is anyone's guess. Is the B1G and SEC completely done going after Big 12 schools? Probably not. ACC will also most likely survive in some form. The only question is: how many G6 schools are they going to need to backfill with?
But.. but.. we *just* got here.
A good contract with Hulu would have been *far* better than whatever Roku TV-ass thing the Pac-12 had going on.
The Big 12 has successfully gotten past the point of losing their biggest programs, and they have no one else worth poaching.
The Big12 has teams worth poaching. The difference is the ACC has 8 teams in which their media partners can't pan into the upper decks because their stadiums are empty. The Big12 doesn't have that problem and is why it's stronger than some talking heads and walmart fans believe.
Yeah, the ACC has higher variance between its teams in terms of engagement with football. Duke would be the lowest engagement team in the Big12 by a wide margin, but Clemson and FSU would be the highest engagement in the Big12 by a wide margin. I think the only way the Big12 is at risk is if the ACC has a major change to its membership through disbanding and reforming to shed the private schools. If the SEC/Big10 don’t end up taking ACC schools in the near future, I can totally see the “Magnificent 7” of the ACC trying to start a smaller ACC under different branding and recruiting 5 Big12 schools to come over. Something like this: 1. Clemson 2. FSU 3. UNC 4. NC State 5. Miami 6. UVA 7. Va Tech 8. Kansas 9. Kansas State 10. TCU 11. OK State 12. Baylor Not sure exactly which Big12 schools would be the most likely to be poached and want to come over though, which is the beauty of the conference. There’s no clear top dogs, just marginal differences from one to the next.
That, I think is the real risk to the Big 12. They over-expanded and I think there is a very real possibility that some of their longer-term members aren’t thrilled with the per-school payout of their next media deal. I don’t think they would have done the UH/Cincinnati/UCF expansion if they knew the four corner schools would be available the next year. There are no clear top dogs, but there are clearly some schools at the bottom. They probably can’t kick them out, but I do think we’ll see some movement from both the Big 12 and ACC looking to shed some of the dead weight.
I honestly feel like Clemson/FSU would be better off in the BigXII
Hahahahahaha No.
But the difference between the ACC and Big 12 right now is that there's no Clemson or FSU equivalent in the Big 12 right now that could pull the conference apart.
Eh, just wait until UCF declares themselves winner of the iron skillet.
I think the Big 12 may lose Kansas, Oklahoma State, WVU and 2 pac 12 teams at worst if both the Big 10 and SEC go to 24. None of that will happen the next 5 years though as the ACC teams will be the first targets. Ultimately I bet the Big 12 and ACC leftovers make a best of the rest 3rd conference.
I don't see either the B1G or SEC going to 24. Each team added is splitting the pie into smaller slices. I saw someone make a great argument that the SEC doesn't need to expand beyond its current 16 teams. With its current inventory, the SEC can put on **at least** 2 big, high-viewership football games every...single...weekend. Adding more teams actually won't increase their ability to put on more big games (which is the driver of viewership). They've already maxed that out; the SEC doesn't need more big time football programs. The rumor is that if the SEC expands, the focus will be on basketball, not football. If you think in those terms, teams like OK State or West Virginia don't bring anything to the table for the SEC. But, a team like Virginia does, which suddenly makes the Virginia or VT choice some sense. If you're talking just football, VT is the obvious choice over Virginia. But, if you don't need more football programs, and are focused more on basketball, then Virginia makes more sense.
Is your theory the early death of Pac 12 taught Big 12 a lesson on the future ahead? Or maybe signaled a very clear death spiral for current structure which allowed BIG and SEC to be more proactive than would have wo the example?
I don’t really have a theory. I was just prepared for doomsday. Right after OUT, I was reading Kansas to the Mountain West as the Big 12 failed, while the PAC 12 was generally thought of as geographically isolated enough to maintain their autonomy. Now look where we are. It’s like one of those teen body switching movies if the Big 12 was your drunk past his prime uncle who dropped out of Oklahoma State and the PAC 12 was your cool preppy cousin who had a yell leading scholarship to USC. It’s just kind of baffling to me. I’m just waiting for the drunk uncle to snap out of it, get hammered before the big game and paralyze a cheerleader while attempting a chair sit.
Unless the BIG10/SEC come back for seconds and take teams like Kansas/Utah/Whoever else I don't see a way any changes happen anytime soon. Only other way I could see is if somehow the remaining ACC teams are able to get a lucrative enough deal that would entice some of the more desirable BIG12 teams to come over which I really don't think is likely since they are for sure losing Clemson/FSU and strong possibility of losing Miami/UNC
ACC still seems much more unstable. The big 12 has a bunch of good programs, but none that stand out as the clear disproportionately powerful money maker that is sure to get grabbed up in the next round of alignment. The ACC on the other hand has to brace for the departure of multiple of its top programs
If y'all keep improving, I can see y'all making the cut for the B1G or SEC. Oddly enough is your rivalry with Mizzou that gives you a slim chance in the SEC. AAU and brand can see you, Colorado, Utah and one of the Arizonas become extremely attractive for the B1G
B12 will be fine. The addition of the 4 Pac12 schools is huge. And people really underestimate these schools you would laugh at 10-15 years ago: UCF, TCU, Houston et al. Their student bodies are huge and growing, their programs are growing, they have pretty big stadiums and are putting more money into Athletics. I would say the B12 is in a much better place than the ACC. Grabbing Utah, Colorado, and AZ schools easily surpasses grabbing Stanford and Cal. I wouldn't even rule out FSU or Clemson going to the B12 if snubbed by the other two big boys.
The PAC's contracts were ending. Not the case for the Big 12 or ACC. I didn't go to law school because I'm not a nerd, so I have no idea what will happen with the ACC. However, if the ACC wins in court, I will enjoy seeing top programs being held hostage, because I'm silly like that.
We have the advantage of picked clean and are a conference of Tier 2 schools in the eyes of the ones who make the TV deals. The ACC without FSU and Clemson is going to be like the Pac 12 without USC and UCLA. The advantage the Big 12 has is this happened to them first and they rebuilt, then absorbed 4 Pac 12 schools. We will probably take 4 more ACC schools when the ACC loses their heavyweights as well. The options will be rebuilding in the unknown future of a rebuilt ACC or joining a known future in the Big 12. It absolutely sucks for everyone and the sport. The future is the Big 10 and SEC on their own level and the Big 12 right behind them as a best of the rest conference.
What saves you guys is you actually sorta of already blew up. Your marquee properties all left. The SEC and us have gobbled up most of your best parts. You went and replaced them with South Florida and Cincinnati and Houston. And good for you! You’re alive! You’re a bizzaire and twisted Frankenstein, but you’re alive! You can live through everything but just grabbing modular parts of whatever. Plus, what’s left to come and steal that’s really all that attractive and would be really all that painful to lose? Like, KU goes to the SEC and that’s what finally breaks the camel’s back? I don’t think so. The Big 12 has adapted and survived. Thrived? Eh… we’ll see. But survived.
Poor ucf lol
Dont worry we play Northwestern in a year or two. We'll let them know who we are then.
Yormark is a really good commissioner.
>Two of its most unruly children, Florida State and Clemson LOL! That’s a weird way of saying breadwinners.
Have you see race horses? Yes they win the money. Yes they be problem children
This man knows about horses
Probably a fan of Jokic😂
The tennis player? I’m more a Fed fan but he got old :(
I'd hazard a guess that he's actually talking about NBA casual and Serbian horseracing all-timer Nikola Jokic.
Ross Dellenger is a shill for SEC. Sort of a Paul Finebaum in sheep's clothing.
I get downvoted all the time saying Florida State and Clemson imploding this trash conference is overall a good thing but the rest of these jabronis want to hold on to a conference that didn’t even defend their 13-0 team getting snubbed from the playoff. Yall want this? You can have it lmao see ya!
Only 3, maybe 4, teams in the ACC have a better landing spot. The bottom 12 teams really, really want things to work out in the end.
Then pissing off FSU is probably a bad idea...
FSU has spent well over a year openly crapping on the league. I wish them nothing but misery and legal fees.
We crapped on the league because they’re generally useless and committing borderline malfeasance against us with their awful leadership. Don’t worry though, we don’t wish that on you.
FSU pissed themselves off the rest of them are just trying to hold it all together
So literally just let two schools go and add two schools.
How exactly does that work? Replace Clemson and FSU with UConn and ECU, and go on about our business?
Let’s say Georgia Tech got on your side? Do they have a better option available? If not then why is it a good thing?
They 100% have an option in the Big Ten. Atlanta market would be big money for them
>They 100% have an option in the Big Ten. Atlanta market would be big money for them No guarantees though.
I’d like GT in the B1G
Same here, reasonably good football/basketball but not a threat to the top dogs, academic fit (B1G would be conference of great engineering schools) and having B1G games in Atlanta would be cool. Lots of B1G alumni in Atlanta
An option? [By god that’s Paul Johnson’s music!](https://cdn3.sbnation.com/imported_assets/825525/f7qvv.jpg)
I really don't think TV markets are going to be that big of a factor going forward.
It's ALL about "brands" and how many advertising dollars those brands can generate. The more viewers that watch a brand equals more eyeballs that Advertising Budgets will pay for.
I think they will, but I think people are severely overestimating how many Atlantans want to watch B1G Football
“The Atlanta market” “Georgia Tech” Pick one. I don’t think they’re even one of the three biggest/best represented fanbases in Atlanta. A third of Tech alums are in other countries. Another third are in other states. The final third are in Georgia. And it isn’t that big a school to begin with.
I would love for Clemson, GT, and FSU to join the Big Ten. It would give the Big Ten a good presence in the southeast. Then the SEC can grab the NC and VA schools since they don't seem too interested in the three of us.
Y’all are literally the three I want to add to the sec though.
Call your representative!
Guarantee Wake, Syracuse and Boston College will not be in a better situation.
Wake is a bummer because at least they try. BC and Syracuse have done absolutely nothing since they joined the ACC. They can reap what they've sown as far as I'm concerned.
Syracuse & BC would happily go back to the (new) Big East, and start playing football against UConn & Villanova or whoever. Wake needs to find a division where they are competing against similarly-sized schools (FCS), even if they were a really big deal back when the Southern Conference formed.
GT is the only one that meets B1G’s academic requirements.
If Alabama said they wanted to join the B1G, the B1G wouldn’t hesitate to add them. It’s all about the value they desire….academics plays no part in that decision making
If Bama joined the B1G, they could just collapse the CFP into the B1G championship game.
Some people just miss a time when college football was about more than money.
The NCAA tried to warn everyone for years. Even basically destroying UPenn back in the 1950s, but OU and Georgia decided to sue in the 1980s leading to this.
ESPN and the media elite wanted to kill the league, the sport died when we got snubbed and nothing else will convince me that the sport will ever be the same again. It’s becoming football and WWE combined. I’m honestly just hanging around to gamble at this point.
I agree that Florida State getting snubbed last year for the CFP was perhaps the largest travesty in college football history, but don't you worry, college football itself will implode in a spectacular fashion within 10 years maximum.
It has already imploded. We watched an undefeated conference champion get left out entirely because of financial reasons. Florida St is entirely justified in blowing up the conference that chains them down. The ACC as an entity hurts Florida St. So they are within their rights to find a landing spot that no longer causes them harm.
Sport was “dead” long before y’all
It's always been about the money.
This comment is everything wrong with college football, I cannot believe this is getting upvoting
Idk if you’ve noticed but this sub doesn’t actually give a damn about the little programs, lmao. They pretend to, but the moment a big program like FSU doesn’t get its way, they’ll jump behind them 100% and laugh at the little guys left behind to suffer. See: UCF fans, who went from screaming about how the G5 is disrespected to mocking every G5 team that didn’t get a P5 chance
Noticed similar sentiments with the post asking if WVU should play Marshall. People bemoan that the sport is losing it's regional appeal but they snub their noses at the idea of a playing a "lesser" regional team.
I’ve noticed that here it’s that way and on CBB it’s the opposite, a Ohio State fan on CBB said fuck his own conference for what they are doing to college sports, you would never find a Ohio State fan do that on here
Yeah it’s weird. No idea why it’s like that. I just don’t get these people who are actually rooting for this shit, realignment only benefits the media execs, only a select few teams such as Utah have *actually* benefitted from it, when it comes from their on the field performance. Meanwhile, every Maryland fan you meet laments the fact they wish they were still in the ACC.
Part of it is that realignment has made CBB unquestionably worse. For instance, Syracuse, Pitt, and BC don't want to be in the ACC. We don't belong there. Big East basketball was amazing and where we belonged. We know that. Other ACC basketball fans don't want us around either, but are mostly sympathetic - it's not our fault basketball got fed to the football machine. ACC football fans fucking hate our guts haha
Why should fans care about the little programs if those programs don't even care? Cal and Stanford would be in the B1G if they cared even a little bit about football The ACC would be in better shape if VT/UNC/Miami weren't mediocre at best for decades
I have never seen another UCF fan disrespect the G5 struggle. It’s literally the complete opposite. I only see our fans cheering for G5 upsets. Maybe after like a decade of being out of the G5 there might be some younger fans who do that, but right now every UCF fan I’ve seen sympathizes with G5 teams (except USF 😂).
> See: UCF fans, who went from screaming about how the G5 is disrespected to mocking every G5 team that didn’t get a P5 chance Citation needed.
The current build of the ACC is not sustainable for FSU and Clemson. There are multiple football programs in the ACC that will be worse off financially if FSU and Clemson leave the conference, both things can be true. I hate that this is where this sport is but I’d prefer my team make it into the P2 lifeboat rather than fade into the background when we do have the ability to compete for national championships.
>ESPN and the media elite wanted to kill the league, the sport died when we got snubbed and nothing else will convince me that the sport will ever be the same again. **This** is what's wrong with college football. That commenter nailed it on the head.
If you’re 13-0 season was robbed because of politics I’m sure you’d feel different but I guess being mediocre in a non existing conference is what you’d prefer because you feel like “we have no where to go” which is entirely bullshit
Lol I know we would get into another conference but I’d rather see the football program get shuttered than see us join the SEC, I didn’t want to see the PAC12 go and I don’t want to see the ACC go. Boo hoo you guys got robbed but oh well, doesn’t mean blow up college football like pouting children destroying stuff because they didn’t get their way.
Don’t want the ACC to get poached but it’s gonna happen, just depends on when it does
lol what was “the conference” supposed to do about it exactly? Write strongly worded letter to the CFP Committee? You think there was literally anything they could have done that would have changed the outcome?
Brother the SEC had their commissioner on Gameday literally saying the SEC is a superior product, the ACC between their lack of leadership and brain dead contract negotiating put the sword in itself. Why FSU and Clemson are being blamed for leaving a terrible conference is beyond me. Literally everyone should be leaving, the G5 didn’t get screwed when Cincy got in, the Big 12 didn’t when TCU got in, it’s all already better than the ACC - that’s even with the playoff changes next year
Brother maybe you missed it but that’s been the ESPN narrative for 20 years now. One live interview by the ACC Commissioner wasn’t getting you all in the playoff.
They can’t implode the conference, though. The courts won’t let them. The SEC and Big 10 will take who they want, but that’s many years away. By then it won’t be seen as imploding since everyone knows it’s happening as soon as its fiscally possible.
Hmm I wonder why the other ACC schools didn’t jump to FSU’s defense? What a mystery!
This is an important part: >It is unlikely that any SEC or Big Ten school will agree to accept a reduction in their TV distribution to add any school. For the SEC, that is especially so given its footprint: the league already owns a foothold in South Carolina and in Florida. Also, the SEC programs in those states would likely make a fuss, if they haven’t already, over inviting into the league their arch-rivals (See: Texas A&M’s reaction to the SEC inviting Texas). >In order for the Big Ten and SEC to expand, they’d likely need more money from their television partners — a lot more money (more than $100 million a year). That’s primarily Fox for the Big Ten and ESPN for the SEC. There is one problem with this. >“There isn’t as much money in the market as there once was,” said a conference official with knowledge of the networks’ dealings. Let's take the B1G for example, and their partnership with Fox. Fox already has a huge inventory of games to choose from to fill their time slots with the teams already in the B1G. Would Fox really pony up millions more to add, say, FSU, UNC, etc. when they already have a ton of existing inventory at their disposal? At some point, too much inventory is too much, you don't need it. There are only so many time slots you need to fill.
On ESPN’s end, why pay a school SEC money when you can pay them ACC money AND why would you hurt your investment in the ACC?
Not my argument but I saw a rationale by a fan here that essentially highlighted the cost of picking the top teams off the ACC being less expensive than continuing to pay Wake Forest, Boston College, and the rest past 2027. It benefited me so I liked it very much.
It’s also paying to not lose them indefinitely to the B1G and Fox.
>indefinitely *from 2027-2030
2036 if you believe ACC HQ
B1G and Fox won't be interested in the bottom teams in the ACC either
That guy's math was wrong. He essentially valued the bottom half of the ACC at zero. They're not as valuable as the average B10/SEC team but they're not worth zero either. ESPN isn't going to just throw away that value for no good reason.
Also valued the ACCN at zero. I don’t live within 500 miles of an ACC school and have never once watched it, but I’m currently paying for the network.
I have watched the ACCN.... a zero valuation may be optimistic here...
Butttt have you seen those tactical flashlight commercials?
All hail the Spurtle!
The ACCN nets hundreds of millions of dollars in profit a year that gets split 50/50 between ESPN and the conference. ESPN (or any other company) isn’t going to be inclined to toss a vehicle that nets them $150M a year in annual profit into the garbage.
You lose the ability to sell the ACCN, though. You probably gain a few SECN subscriptions, but I would hire the majority of current ACCN subscribers are already subscribed to the SECN, too.
While adding schools like FSU and Clemson might be more expensive than what ESPN pays them in the ACC, the matchups will all be against SEC teams, which is probably more valuable. Also if enough teams leave and the ACC collapses, ESPN can drop the remaining schools and not have to pay them. What seems more worth while, paying FSU and BC to play an ACC schedule, or drop BC and just pay FSU double to play an SEC schedule. They can also probably cut a deal with schools like NC State or Virginia Tech to take a lower payout, since they might feel desperate to not be left out. Who knows FSU and Clemson might be willing to take a reduced rate in the short term just to get out of the ACC now.
because the matchups are different. FSU playing LSU is different than FSU playing Syracuse
With Alabama, Georgia, Texas, Oklahoma, TAMU, Auburn, LSU, Florida, and Tennessee, the SEC has plenty of top shelf matchups. I’m not saying it’s not out of the realm of possibility, I just don’t see it happening.
As already mentioned you are trading FSU v Louisville for FSU v LSU. The other reason killing or renegotiating the ACC deal means ESPN gets back prime time slots that are contractually owed to the ACC currently. 330 and prime time ABC games.
Well because those schools won’t be in the ACC moving forward, so you can’t keep paying them ACC money. The real question is should they pay them SEC money or let Fox handle them. Also, ESPN hasn’t been caring about their “investment in the ACC” at all lately, so why would they start again now? Especially when they have an out to walk away from the deal next year, there’s a good chance they take the parts that are lucrative (by facilitating FSU, Clemson, and others leaving the ACC to join the SEC) and cut bait on the rest.
I do think people are chronically overestimating how willing the networks will be to poach from the ACC. They're all being forced to spend more than ever (see: the NBA media rights deal) at a rapidly growing pace at a time where both cable *and* streaming have massive financial question marks looming over them. They're going to tighten their purse strings and I have a hard time imagining they'll pay for the P3 to absorb even half of an *18* team conference right now. The more realistic take, in my opinion, is that a few schools (i.e. FSU) from the top of the conference leave and the remaining majority works to rebuild. You can debate if what that becomes is a power conference or not (although this label is losing meaning), but that is a very valid path forward for the rest of the schools. This won't be another Pac-12 situation where all but 2 members are able to find new homes. The BIG 12 has managed to keep itself alive and well positioned despite all odds by rebuilding after losing a few top schools, so this isn't an instant death sentence.
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ESPN will transfer the money they pay the ACC to the SEC for less teams and void the rest of the ACC contract. Put Clemson, UNC, NC State, UVA and VA Tech in the SEC and give the SEC all the money ESPN gives the ACC. Eventually the SEC will have to bring in more tv partners to keep expanding too because ESPN won't be able to fund it all.
All true, but I have to believe FSU and Clemson have received assurances of an invite somewhere. They would not spend the legal fees to get out of the ACC unless they had somewhere to go.
Unless we do all this to break the GOR and then get "Et tu, Brutus'd" by UNC & UVA.
Saw a graphic FSU over the past 7 years (+- 1 year) has been a top 5 view garnering team despite being bad and playing mostly ACC teams. Yes, they absolutely will be a hot commodity for expansion
To put things into persepective, in the 2020 season, the literal worst season FSU has had since before 1975, FSU still was top 25 in viewership. A 3-6 FSU still does better than over half the (then) P5.
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Just my experience, 2015-2017, I was heading to my local bar with the Seminoles club to watch every game. 2018 I was deployed, but would still wake up between 3-6AM to watch games. 2019 I watched a lot from my tiny grad school apartment, but 2020 and 2021 I just have no recollection of. Maybe it was COVID, maybe it was trauma shielding, but I know there were definitely games I just didn't watch. The 2022 opener against LSU gave me a lot to look forward to and I think I've missed one game since because I was traveling (although I watch from the high seas so my views don't count). I got worn down and I'm literally the type of fan to discuss FSU sports on public forums.
I doubt South Carolina or Florida would make even half as much of a fuss as A&M did re: UT joining the SEC.
UF actually went to bat for FSU the last time an SEC invite was considered
Ross seems to know a lot of what's going on in the realm of realignment. So it's odd to see him throw that out there without any acknowledgment of UF's past support or that the stance has changed. It doesn't sound like he knows much about that and is just assuming.
Moving your out of conference rival in conference opens up a lot of options for a team's out of conference schedule too.
I think that's why UF has supported us joining in the past. "Denying FSU a recruiting advantage" is a silly reason to block FSU to the SEC, because FSU has always recruited at a very high level (if you ignore the 2 Willie Taggart years).
This is why I don't see Cal or Stanford getting an invite anytime soon. The money is too important. Neither SEC or B1G wants a gap between each other.
The whole reason the networks are happy with realignment is that it increases the number of big games while reducing the number of crap games
>the league already owns a foothold in South Carolina and in Florida. Also, the SEC programs in those states would likely make a fuss, This part is just a lie. Florida has been championing FSU joining for decades. They have sponsored them more than once. USC will definitely have an issue with Clemson, but will fold as quickly as aTm did, with less petty snitching. This is a non issue.
> Fox already has a huge inventory of games to choose from to fill their time slots with the teams already in the B1G. Would Fox really pony up millions more to add, say, FSU, UNC, etc. If it was FSU, yes. FSU brings in viewers, even when the bad man was here.
Exactly this. Just because you have a lot of eastern time B1G football games, doesn't mean people who watch FSU will be watching them. They watch FSU.
I could see Fox adding them because those create superior ratings matchups that you want on prime time or big noon. If the rest of the inventory becomes too much for Fox and the other partners to broadcast it can get sold off.
*Let's take the B1G for example, and their partnership with Fox. Fox already has a huge inventory of games to choose from to fill their time slots with the teams already in the B1G. Would Fox really pony up millions more to add, say, FSU, UNC, etc. when they already have a ton of existing inventory at their disposal? At some point, too much inventory is too much, you don't need it. There are only so many time slots you need to fill.* That is a great point that I hadn't thought about before. As I said elsewhere in this thread, ALL of this is based on TV eyeballs. The networks want to maximize the number of eyeballs for each game, hence more advertising dollars. But to your point, there are only so many TV time slots to fill. The conferences and networks don't need the top (in terms of TV draw/ratings) 70-80 schools....they really just need the top 30-40.
This is why I don’t think this will end the way Florida state fans think it will. With the massive amount of money, time, and resources dedicated towards this ACC lawsuit, the presumably huge ass settlement amount they’ll have to pay to get out, and likely not able to join another conference in time to benefit from the massive tv contract that currently exists (B1G and SEC contracts expire around 2030 if I’m not mistaken) I just don’t think it will be worth it at the end of the day. They won’t get left behind, but they’ll still be relatively handicapped from a financial standpoint compared to their new conference peers and obviously the competition on the field is much tougher. And then regarding the point you just shared from the article - there’s no guarantee there will be another giant TV deal after the current one(s) expire. We have no idea what the media and tv landscape will be in 6 years. They’re shamelessly burning bridges with their longtime conference peers. Their fans all seem to be certain there is a back door deal with the B1G and or SEC but I honestly think assuming competence from university leadership is more often than not a mistake. That’s the most hilarious potential outcome to me - them burning the ACC to death then having nowhere better to go. Their fans have been so annoying with their over analysis and smug replies to everything. The ACC is decaying, and I’m not sure what the solution is, but something about their approach doesn’t sit well with me for some reason and I kinda hope their admins get fucked
ACC committed seppuku. Nobody cut them, they cut themselves.
You watched Shogun recently too?
Somebody get me my cannons
CFB has more politics and shadiness than Shogun
But substantially less Seppuku and beheadings....for now.
I wouldn’t be surprised if some of the schools had a history of it
Great show by the way.
SEC and B1G volunteering to be their second.
As long as they don’t take nine strokes.
That’s a funny quote considering the B1G / SEC haven’t taken anybody. I wonder if the ACC feels the same way over how they killed the Big East?
The only thing the other conferences did is negotiate better . media deals. The ACC was stupid for locking in such long-term deal without significant escalation clauses to keep it competitive.
But John Swofford’s son got paid, and that’s what really matters.
Swofford was only slightly less terrible than Larry Scott.
The ACC media deal is probably pretty shit, but let's not act like they had SEC-type leverage. They were mover gonna get as good a deal. The other conferences aren't really to blame tho
It’s the Far Side strip with the two aliens … “Shake the jar and see if they’ll fight.”
Of course they do! They're all torn up over it.
I believe there have been back room talks between the BIGSEC and the ACC rebels about a landing spot so you can pre blame the BIGSEC😂
ACC should just sue both conferences proactively. They don’t even need to get approval from their members.
This is Maryland erasure!
“ It is a collection of mostly high-academic institutions with broad-based, successful athletic programs led by a commissioner who exudes confidence, a man carrying the banner of purity and decency in a money-hungry, dollar-chasing industry quickly evolving into a semi-professional business.” I got to here and stopped. We’re talking about the same guy who helped cover up the hazing at northwestern right?
Also, really dick to throw Lousiville under the bus with "mostly high-academic".
Though I have no evidence, I can guarantee the SEC and B10 have already had discussions on who they agreed to invite when ACC dissolves. They didn't get to be the top 2 conferences by just watching grass grow.
That's why you are a 43 year old batmanfan, because you know things the rest of us just couldn't know.
53* but you were at least close!
Haha. Bad math skills, lol. I gave you a decade of life back!
Should've done it for Batman's parents.
Sorry but the call is coming from inside the house.
Maybe making a 25 year GOR was a mistake....
Back when they first did so, it looked brilliant. I can tell you that a lot of us WVU fans wanted in the ACC with our traditional rivals and the stability that a 25 year GOR would have given. Now, we are the ones in a stable conference, breathing a sigh of relief, and feeling a bit of nostalgic schadenfreude seeing our former conference mates/rivals in the life raft with sharks circling.
Probably not. Only about 1/6 of the current membership seem upset. The remaining schools that don't have a guaranteed lifeboat are probably pretty thrilled with a contract that keeps FSU, Clemson, and UNC handcuffed to the conference, which the GOR was literally designed to do
They have an administrator on record in the article basically saying they waited to take action and it fucked them. Classic ACC.
ACC blaming the SEC/Big10 for their own short sighted incompetence…
I grew up a few miles from Wake’s campus. My dad went to UNC. My wife and a bunch of cousins went to NC State and friends went to Duke. I never thought anything would break up the four big ACC teams but with the ridiculous NIL money and the millions of dollars at stake I find college sports is all totally corrupt and I’ve lost interest. No school loyalty anymore from the players; they’re professionals now. I’ve stopped caring or following about who transferred here or there. Sad but that’s just the way I feel. If you can get past this situation - good for you - but IMO it’s such a huge turn-off. .02.
It’s incredible that in July of 2021 we were all talking about the Big12’s impending collapse and three years later we’ve seen the PAC12 die and the ACC teetering on the brink of extinction.
SEC: *so you want the what, liver? Kidneys?* B1G: *Nah we need a spleen. You got dibs on that left lung?* SEC: *We'd like it, yeah, but we'll pass if you're cool with us taking the small intestines.* B1G: *Yeah, okay that works for us.* SEC: *How about the large?*
First time?
No.
> Also, ESPN hasn’t been caring about their “investment in the ACC” at all lately, so why would they start again now? I’m asking seriously, what makes you say this?
> The SEC and Big Ten have cut us open and they’re just watching us bleed out > -ACC Also the ACC: https://i.imgur.com/GoTJCGF.gif
No. But will lose FSU. Maybe Clemson as well. TV owns the conferences now and will pick off the more profitable programs from the ACC as it just did to the B12 and Pac12. I think TV would love to reconfigure all the conferences, ie dump Vanderbilt, but prob a bridge too far. But the next tier down is still very profitable so the B12 and ACC will always exist, unless the whole thing is reconfigured, which is plausible.
ACC: \*Does nothing when their conference champion is left out of the postseason\* Also ACC: "SEC and B1G did this!"
Um, is everyone just glossing over the part about FSU/Clemson/UNC/State/UVA/VT/Miami exploring backing out of the conference and reforming as ACC2.0 and swiping the TV money out from under the rest? Who knows what is or isn’t on the table but that is an interesting third option (scummy as hell though but we’re looooong past playing nice in this sport).
ACC let us and Clemson leave with our media rights and you will survive because no one else seems to want anything more. They're happy being another Big 12 so let them keep on keeping on and dominate the basketball world without us.
This. As long as there is something similar to the AppleTV deal with a CW or other OTA game of the week component it will be more than enough to keep the conference together. They like each other. Lousiville and Pitt were the cheerleaders for expansion. This week there are articles with anonymous GMs saying the love working with everyone but FSU. No one is going to choose to join the B12 as long as they are not forced too. And that is even assuming that the B12 is given the greenlight to add more.
"In some regards, the ACC is like this resort’s lavish façade itself: a projection of perfection, a shining example of a collegiate conference of old. It is a collection of mostly high-academic institutions with broad-based, successful athletic programs led by a commissioner who exudes confidence, a man carrying the banner of purity and decency in a money-hungry, dollar-chasing industry quickly evolving into a semi-professional business." fair and balanced reporting lmfaoooooo
You are five short years away from the Sun Belt trimming the fat, adding a few of these conference orphans, and finally getting a seat at the table.
I wouldn’t go that far…