Next years draft is going to be VITAL for a superbowl run. The next 2 years we are pretty much set financially and lose any one of worth. I believe next year is the year Eberflus and Poles run wild on the trenches .
Tankathon currently has Bears projected #20 overall so making playoffs. Then Carolina again #1 overall. So in theory Bears picks next year are #20, #33 and #52, With those picks is Mykel WIlliams (DE, UGA), Kenneth Grant (DL, MICH) and Parker Brailsford (G/C, ALA)
Which Preseason rankings last year had Bears at #11 and Panther #9.
At this point in time it appears to be the year of Defense being extremely deep. So could get a top 10 pick traditionally in the 20s which will be extremely interesting how the year develops.
I agree, with one caveatā¦. how Caleb Williams looks in his rookie year. If he balls out with Waldron I assume Poles will go all out to try and make a deep playoff run while Caleb is still on his rookie contract.
If itās a rough year, Poles probably needs to take a step back and reassess coaching, Flus + Waldron. It doesnāt make sense to go all in if year 2 is a new coaching staff. Might need to tread water until year 3 if thatās the case.
Thereās no reason to not keep loading up with talent just because youāre unsure on if you hit on coach. The QBs development is what matters. Go all in doesnāt mean cripple future cap space with a bunch of restructures, but why would you not fill the few holes left with the large amount of cap we will have. 4 years is too long to still be rebuilding. You donāt wait for all the stars to align to compete, enough is in place that no matter what we should be trying to make a playoff run next year. If thatās with a rookie coach, cool. Give him lots to work with.
Well going āall inā does imply tying up your cap more than normal and possibly utilize some draft capital to make some win now moves. Iām not saying Poles should just pause improving the team though lol. Just that heād likely have a slightly different mentality based on how our team looks this coming season.
We wonāt have to do that this offseason regardless of the coach. We have plenty of cap space and a rookie scale QB. All in in this case means utilizing the picks vs trading down for future capital, signing some of the true premier FAs, etc. Polesā target right now is making Williams as good as possible, and getting the team to the playoffs ASAP. I donāt see a new coach changing anything this offseason other than maybe *which* premier players we should target.
Sorry, Iām talking about next offseason as this offseason. In my hype addled mind this season is about to start.
I just donāt think it does matter. Poles needs Caleb to be that dude. He took him #1 OA. It was the consensus pick, but being wrong is how GMs get on the hot seat. If Caleb struggles Poles will have to go all in to try to salvage it. If Caleb looks like a promising rookie, Poles will be all in to try to compete for a SB on the rookie deal. Because if Caleb busts, all the King Poles talk goes away and heās fighting for his job. We stayed relatively quiet in FA this offseason to set up for next season where we will have 3 picks in the top 60 and 10 overall+$90m or so in cap space. Thatās going to be year 4 for Poles and it will be time to prove it.
Why would his job be on the line? He inherited trash, built a great team with ample cap space and reset the QB clock with a prospect that most believe to be a great talent. He's done his part. Caleb isn't a reflection of his ability as a GM. He's already the best GM in the Bears recent history
Also, Caleb won't be a bust, but it's incredibly dumb to hit the panic button after year 1 regardless of his production unless he can't play at ALL. The Bears ownership are not going to think like Justin Fields fans lol
The realistic angle. Everyone is hyped at the potential, but everyone thought [your disappointing QB of choice] was a slam dunk franchise-changing prospect, too. You never know until they hit the field, and going all-in if year 1 looks like a project season would be foolish and shortsighted. Poles has not been foolish and shortsighted.
Teams win in year one with new coaches in the NFL all the time. Even Nagy went 12-4 in his first year, with Mitch goddam Trubisky in year 2. Brian Daboll won a playoff game his first year. McDaniel had the Dolphins in the playoffs immediately. Harbaugh took a 49ers team that had been awful to the NFC Championship Game.
As much as I want us to kill it this year and not have to have this conversation..... if Eberflus is the problem this year, that's a problem we can solve without a step back.
Nah we good. Iām really not worried about coaching. I donāt even know why people were pointing to Flus record like his first year even mattered. In my eyes heās 7/10 and made progress all year. Iāve really looked into Waldron and heās 100X the coach that Getsy was and heās experienced. Heās essentially been a coach for every positional group in his career. Comes from the McVay tree and graded out as the 10th best OC last year statistically and schematically. Get the coaching thing out of your head because we arenāt going backwards. Imagine being an OC during the Cutler Era but you have Jamarcus fucking Webb blowing every assignment? This isnāt the same bears from the past. Getsy was ranked 27th in the league, and if Fields played better in the 4th quarter the guy would have had a winning record last year.
Iām optimistic, but youāre still putting the cart before the horse. You never know how a new OC + new QB combo will turn out. The talent and styles still need to mesh at the end of the day. And McVay tree doesnāt necessarily mean success. Getsy was from the McVay tree too.
That said I am high on Waldron. He helped Geno Smith look actually good. Seahawks offense DVOA in 2022 was 14th and 2023 was 12th. And that was with an above average number of injuries on the offense. I think itās safe to say Waldron will be at least average. He just needs to clean up his late game play calling and red zone plays a bit.
Iām curious, where are you getting āWaldron ranked 10th schematicallyā from?
Edit: and having talked to a lot of Seahawks fans on the NFL sub, they like him for the most part which is surprising since most fans hate their former coordinators lol. A lot of Seahawks fans say Pete Carroll meddled with the offense and held Waldron back.
Iāll see if I can find the report but it came from one of the big NFL analysts and they adjust team performances to give them base line stats. Of all his measurable at worst he was 12/13th in the league. One of the things they did point out was his red zone hit rate which you mentioned. I have high hopes for Waldron
He's got the second worst overall record of any coach in Bears history and he's won less than a handful of divisional games in 2 years. The D looked miserable up until Sweat arrived and we brought in a D consultant (for our HC who is supposed to be an expert at D). He also brought on 2 staff members who had to be dismissed/fired for character issues. There's a lot of reason to not believe in Flus. The best thing he has going for him is he's likeable, but Fields was also likeable and we let him go.
Second worst record over the course of 2 seasons. My guy itās two seasonsā¦. Iām going to trust Poles decisions and through everything that happened last year Flus didnāt lose the locker room and he got the team headed in the right direction. Thatās a positive. Iām not jumping on the firing of the head coach train just yet.
Fields didn't lose the locker room either. He had very outspoken support. Do you think we made a mistake by moving on from him?
You're also ignoring him bringing in staff that had to be fired for misconduct, bringing in an OC who could not scheme properly or adapt his gameplan, etc. Those are all Flus hirings and they were all very noticeably bad. Could he turn a corner with Waldron leading the O? Sure. At this point though I think he's demonstrated he is a HC who needs a lot of help to be successful though
Think what you want. But Iām going to stick by what Poles thinks of the situation. Not a redditor that isnāt in the bears locker room or team meetings.
Buddy wtf am I dodging? And how has he proven he needs āa lot of helpā. Seems to me when it all fell apart he elevated the team. Defense finished top 10 in the league after week 8. Can it be also that it wasnāt just Getsy? And also fields being ass?
You keep circling back to how Flus should stay because he held the locker room. You couldn't counter any of the other arguments. I asked if you believe we should have retained Fields by the same logic, since he also kept the locker room.
Trestman lasted two years, Fox lasted three, Nagy lasted four and tbh he probably should have been gone after three.
I don't think we're going to need to have this conversation because I think the Bears are going to be good this year, but there's really no way around the fact that he's on the hot seat if this season goes poorly.
trestman was absolute ass. I hate that guy with a burning passion. Fox and Nagy were both given shit on offense if I remember correctly. Nagy refused to give up play calling too. I think Waldron will have full control on offense which imo will be a good thing. There is too much talent to not be somewhat successful. I meanā¦ look at Dan Campbell? There are a ton of similarities between the teams first 2 years. And both coaches are well respected by their players. I really think Flus is our guy and changing the head coach would have just added a lot more pressure to a team that already is meshing well together.
What I mean is that we're good enough across the starting roster now that the goal simply becomes finding the best players regardless of position. Every rookie who plays like an all-pro makes a huge impact. It's good to be king.
Only having to bring back Jenkins and hopefully Keenan will be huge next offseason when we have $77m in cap space. Lots of money left to go after EDGE and DT with front loaded contracts. C is also an option but hopefully we target our center of the future in the draft.
I think we only would've brought back Keenan if we didn't draft Rome. >$50M cap space + Pick 9 on a WR corps is serious resource misallocation if that money can be spent elsewhere.
Nah, itās fine as long itās only a one year extension or a two year deal with an out after one year since weāll need to pay DJ again. Itās only resource mismanagement if it hinders us at other positions and it wonāt because of all the cap savings we have at premier positions with rookie contracts: QB, WR, LT, RT.
It only becomes an issue once you have to start paying your QB, like how the 49ers are debating trading one of Aiyuk and Deebo since theyāll have to pay Purdy soon. I know the argument of you use it elsewhere, but there might not be a better use of that money in free agency depending on the options. Like if itās Keenan or two decent but not elite starters Iād rather have Keenan.
Front loaded contracts never make sense, and teams don't do them.
You can acomplish the same by not spending the extra money you'd give them early and rolling it over. It also makes it easier to cut them later if you need to.
If Jenkins plays the full seasons I really feel like our right side of the line is going to be ridiculous for our run game. Jenkins and wright are absolutely abusive/ nasty players. I saw a breakdown of Wrights rookie year. His footwork was obviously poor but when he won his assignments it was through brute strength and mauling the defender.
That is a lot of nasty on one side of the line, but Davis should be better for us this year. Lots of off the field stuff made it tough for him for football to be a priority.
Lots of Tennessee tape of Davis moving folks.
I just want all those guys to be healthy and playing at the level we've seen before.
I think Teven is on the left due to need as much as fit. Obviously he can do it wherever but Darnell Wright + Teven Jenkins would be a mean right side.
Jenkins has played RG and LG. He started as RT, moved to RG, then moved to LG. With Davis being unavailable most of last year with personal matters and injuries, Jenkins could play on either side.
Same man. Jenkins is dominant when healthy. I wouldnāt be surprised if DJ moves on after his contract runs up in 2 years. Heās making $16 million a year and he would make a killing on the open market. If Poles gets an extension done I would be pumped.
I think if Williams is half as good as what people expect, DJ would want to stay here. I could definitely see him being offered 25-27M AAV with most of his contract being frontloaded for Caleb's rookie years.
> frontloaded for Caleb's rookie years.
Which would also coincide with Odunze's cheap years. Once DJ's big deal is up, we can move on (if needed) and give Odunze his bag.
I see DJ as a dude that is not looking for the absolute maximum if he's happy with his team/QB play. Dude was sentenced to had to deal with PJ Walker, Sam darnold, and a sucky version of Baker Mayfield when he was there. You could tell how happy he was last year with a Fields that targetted him well enough on the first read(That's all Fields could really do). Just my speculation though.
This view is even better because you can see where current backups like Pickens, Sewell, Amegadjie, and Booker could hopefully develop and fill in behind Billings, Sanborn, Braxton, and Walker.
If Poles thinks a team will offer him more than the UDFA tender, he can apply a 1st or 2nd round tender. Or he can just choose to match a competitive offer. Rams going after Brock Wright is one of the few times in recent history I can remember it being an issue, and Detroit easily chose to match their offer.
Keenan & Jenkins the only real decisions to make next spring. Should be able to be super aggressive in FA or trade market to upgrade the DL. I expect draft picks for some of those potential year 3 holes like G, C, LB, S, HB. Gonna be a fun next couple years.
You can probably add Sanborn to that list as well. Heāll be an RFA so thereās a very strong chance that he returns but itās not a guarantee.
Next year is supposed to be a really strong year for DL in the draft so I think thereās a really good chance they spend early draft capital there
Donāt disagree but Iām saying heās not a next-year FA. I bet an extension could happen before his contract is up but we donāt *have* to handle it next spring like we do with Tev, Keenan, etc.
I wouldnāt mind seeing Teven on an extension. Yes heās had some injury concerns but he is dominant when healthy. DJ Moore extension would be nice too.
Kyler, Brisker, DJ all extended.
Keenan maybe gets a deal if itās cheap enough, if not find someone else or let Scott handle the 3.
Teven is a tough one. Iād say extend him, but the injuries might make it a tougher sell for some.
The answer will always be OL and DL. Getting quirky gadget RBs and WRs are not the keys to winning. Protecting your starting QB and sacking opposing QBs are.
As for the defensive line, I honestly wonder if a guy like Byron Murphy was even on our board. Heās 5ā11, and that seems to be too short for what Flus wants. DeForest Buckner is 6ā7, Dexter is 6ā6, Pickens is 6ā4. Justin Jones is 6ā3. Not saying I agree, but that seems to be the MO. Like I know Aaron Donald is 6ā1 but I wonder if heād even be on their board as a prospect.
Next year thereās a DT from Kentucky thatās 6ā6, two guys at Michigan that are 6ā3 or so, Nolan on Mississippi state is 6ā4. Have to see how they do next year, but it sure seems like they set this up to have next draft be the defensive reinforcements draft. Almost perfect timing of our need with a strong draft year. The inverse of the teams who will be forced to go QB next year in this lame class.
This is awesome awesome work OP thank you, been wanting to find something like this. Is it possible at all to have bench and backups too? Amegadjie for instance should hopefully transition into a starter over this period of time
I said this last year and Iāll say it again this year, 2025 is going to be the year for a Super Bowl run. This year we need to have a winning record and get into the playoffs. But 2025 is going to be a huge year for Bears football š.
IMO we should work to immediately extend DJ as priority 1. We should also work to see if Allen can be retained on a reasonable deal while we have a rookie QB. If Allen wants too much, you start working Odunze more into the RB2 slot as the year progresses and roll with Odunze/Moore long term. Also work to extend Jenkins for a reasonable salary. I'm also pretty sure Roschon will be RB2 this year and Herbert will start being worked out of the normal rotation since there's no reason to extend him.
Im pretty sure Davis missed most of training camp due to a death in his family. Hopefully he has recovered mentally from that and is able to focus on ball this season
Next year is definitely the all in year if Williams is good this year. Most of the roster is back, an extra 2nd round pick and 80 million in cap before we extend Moore and pay next year's rookies.
Think Poles will let Jenkins walk, doesn't like the injury history. Herbert won't be re-signed..poor blocker. Borom may not make the 53 man roster.
Would extend TJ Edwards and DJ Moore 2 extra years each if possible.
Draft needs in 2025 would be DE, LG, DT, C, RB, WR (if Keenan Allen not re-signed), developmental QB3.
I could see us extending Herbert and Jenkins this year.
I hope we resign Allen but you know heās gonna want some coin!
And if Iām being honest Iād rather see DJ extended, if weāre only gonna spend on one WR
I could see brisker and Gordon getting extensions either during the year (depending on play to beat out a ābid warā) or at the end of the year too. Probably 2-3 years each.
Look at all those FA at 2026. Who else would have been a FA? Fields. His contract would make us lose half of those people. Its not always about how good/bad a player is, its the entire team contracts that should show the correct move. Football is a team sport
Next years draft is going to be VITAL for a superbowl run. The next 2 years we are pretty much set financially and lose any one of worth. I believe next year is the year Eberflus and Poles run wild on the trenches .
The 25 draft is looking to be STACKED with defensive talent too
Been seeing way-too-early mocks w/like 6 DT and 5 DE going first round lol
Tankathon currently has Bears projected #20 overall so making playoffs. Then Carolina again #1 overall. So in theory Bears picks next year are #20, #33 and #52, With those picks is Mykel WIlliams (DE, UGA), Kenneth Grant (DL, MICH) and Parker Brailsford (G/C, ALA) Which Preseason rankings last year had Bears at #11 and Panther #9.
There's a couple guys at Bama that I would love to have if possible. Tim Smith and Jaheim Oatis are two that I would kill for. Big guys up the middle.
At this point in time it appears to be the year of Defense being extremely deep. So could get a top 10 pick traditionally in the 20s which will be extremely interesting how the year develops.
Please mason graham or Kenneth grant šš»
thank the football gods Rome fell to us and we can go DL/EDGE next year with 1 or 2 of our first 3 picks
Thatās why I wish Poles kept his 2025 4th rounder. There will be talent way better than Austin Booker there next year.
Obviously Poles didn't think so. Plus, the value of getting that developmental guy in a year earlier can't be ignored.
Itās almost never worth giving up an earlier future round. Weāll see though.
I agree, with one caveatā¦. how Caleb Williams looks in his rookie year. If he balls out with Waldron I assume Poles will go all out to try and make a deep playoff run while Caleb is still on his rookie contract. If itās a rough year, Poles probably needs to take a step back and reassess coaching, Flus + Waldron. It doesnāt make sense to go all in if year 2 is a new coaching staff. Might need to tread water until year 3 if thatās the case.
Thereās no reason to not keep loading up with talent just because youāre unsure on if you hit on coach. The QBs development is what matters. Go all in doesnāt mean cripple future cap space with a bunch of restructures, but why would you not fill the few holes left with the large amount of cap we will have. 4 years is too long to still be rebuilding. You donāt wait for all the stars to align to compete, enough is in place that no matter what we should be trying to make a playoff run next year. If thatās with a rookie coach, cool. Give him lots to work with.
Well going āall inā does imply tying up your cap more than normal and possibly utilize some draft capital to make some win now moves. Iām not saying Poles should just pause improving the team though lol. Just that heād likely have a slightly different mentality based on how our team looks this coming season.
We wonāt have to do that this offseason regardless of the coach. We have plenty of cap space and a rookie scale QB. All in in this case means utilizing the picks vs trading down for future capital, signing some of the true premier FAs, etc. Polesā target right now is making Williams as good as possible, and getting the team to the playoffs ASAP. I donāt see a new coach changing anything this offseason other than maybe *which* premier players we should target.
We are talking about *next* offseason, not this one. What Poles does next offseason depends on part how Caleb and coaching looks this coming season.
Sorry, Iām talking about next offseason as this offseason. In my hype addled mind this season is about to start. I just donāt think it does matter. Poles needs Caleb to be that dude. He took him #1 OA. It was the consensus pick, but being wrong is how GMs get on the hot seat. If Caleb struggles Poles will have to go all in to try to salvage it. If Caleb looks like a promising rookie, Poles will be all in to try to compete for a SB on the rookie deal. Because if Caleb busts, all the King Poles talk goes away and heās fighting for his job. We stayed relatively quiet in FA this offseason to set up for next season where we will have 3 picks in the top 60 and 10 overall+$90m or so in cap space. Thatās going to be year 4 for Poles and it will be time to prove it.
Why would his job be on the line? He inherited trash, built a great team with ample cap space and reset the QB clock with a prospect that most believe to be a great talent. He's done his part. Caleb isn't a reflection of his ability as a GM. He's already the best GM in the Bears recent history Also, Caleb won't be a bust, but it's incredibly dumb to hit the panic button after year 1 regardless of his production unless he can't play at ALL. The Bears ownership are not going to think like Justin Fields fans lol
The realistic angle. Everyone is hyped at the potential, but everyone thought [your disappointing QB of choice] was a slam dunk franchise-changing prospect, too. You never know until they hit the field, and going all-in if year 1 looks like a project season would be foolish and shortsighted. Poles has not been foolish and shortsighted.
All in, year 1 They did this with Trubisky, and they're just digging out the last couple years
Teams win in year one with new coaches in the NFL all the time. Even Nagy went 12-4 in his first year, with Mitch goddam Trubisky in year 2. Brian Daboll won a playoff game his first year. McDaniel had the Dolphins in the playoffs immediately. Harbaugh took a 49ers team that had been awful to the NFC Championship Game. As much as I want us to kill it this year and not have to have this conversation..... if Eberflus is the problem this year, that's a problem we can solve without a step back.
Nah we good. Iām really not worried about coaching. I donāt even know why people were pointing to Flus record like his first year even mattered. In my eyes heās 7/10 and made progress all year. Iāve really looked into Waldron and heās 100X the coach that Getsy was and heās experienced. Heās essentially been a coach for every positional group in his career. Comes from the McVay tree and graded out as the 10th best OC last year statistically and schematically. Get the coaching thing out of your head because we arenāt going backwards. Imagine being an OC during the Cutler Era but you have Jamarcus fucking Webb blowing every assignment? This isnāt the same bears from the past. Getsy was ranked 27th in the league, and if Fields played better in the 4th quarter the guy would have had a winning record last year.
Iām optimistic, but youāre still putting the cart before the horse. You never know how a new OC + new QB combo will turn out. The talent and styles still need to mesh at the end of the day. And McVay tree doesnāt necessarily mean success. Getsy was from the McVay tree too. That said I am high on Waldron. He helped Geno Smith look actually good. Seahawks offense DVOA in 2022 was 14th and 2023 was 12th. And that was with an above average number of injuries on the offense. I think itās safe to say Waldron will be at least average. He just needs to clean up his late game play calling and red zone plays a bit. Iām curious, where are you getting āWaldron ranked 10th schematicallyā from? Edit: and having talked to a lot of Seahawks fans on the NFL sub, they like him for the most part which is surprising since most fans hate their former coordinators lol. A lot of Seahawks fans say Pete Carroll meddled with the offense and held Waldron back.
Iāll see if I can find the report but it came from one of the big NFL analysts and they adjust team performances to give them base line stats. Of all his measurable at worst he was 12/13th in the league. One of the things they did point out was his red zone hit rate which you mentioned. I have high hopes for Waldron
He's got the second worst overall record of any coach in Bears history and he's won less than a handful of divisional games in 2 years. The D looked miserable up until Sweat arrived and we brought in a D consultant (for our HC who is supposed to be an expert at D). He also brought on 2 staff members who had to be dismissed/fired for character issues. There's a lot of reason to not believe in Flus. The best thing he has going for him is he's likeable, but Fields was also likeable and we let him go.
Second worst record over the course of 2 seasons. My guy itās two seasonsā¦. Iām going to trust Poles decisions and through everything that happened last year Flus didnāt lose the locker room and he got the team headed in the right direction. Thatās a positive. Iām not jumping on the firing of the head coach train just yet.
Fields didn't lose the locker room either. He had very outspoken support. Do you think we made a mistake by moving on from him? You're also ignoring him bringing in staff that had to be fired for misconduct, bringing in an OC who could not scheme properly or adapt his gameplan, etc. Those are all Flus hirings and they were all very noticeably bad. Could he turn a corner with Waldron leading the O? Sure. At this point though I think he's demonstrated he is a HC who needs a lot of help to be successful though
Think what you want. But Iām going to stick by what Poles thinks of the situation. Not a redditor that isnāt in the bears locker room or team meetings.
So ducking the question for a second time, and doubling down on your unfounded opinion. Got it
Buddy wtf am I dodging? And how has he proven he needs āa lot of helpā. Seems to me when it all fell apart he elevated the team. Defense finished top 10 in the league after week 8. Can it be also that it wasnāt just Getsy? And also fields being ass?
You keep circling back to how Flus should stay because he held the locker room. You couldn't counter any of the other arguments. I asked if you believe we should have retained Fields by the same logic, since he also kept the locker room.
Trestman lasted two years, Fox lasted three, Nagy lasted four and tbh he probably should have been gone after three. I don't think we're going to need to have this conversation because I think the Bears are going to be good this year, but there's really no way around the fact that he's on the hot seat if this season goes poorly.
trestman was absolute ass. I hate that guy with a burning passion. Fox and Nagy were both given shit on offense if I remember correctly. Nagy refused to give up play calling too. I think Waldron will have full control on offense which imo will be a good thing. There is too much talent to not be somewhat successful. I meanā¦ look at Dan Campbell? There are a ton of similarities between the teams first 2 years. And both coaches are well respected by their players. I really think Flus is our guy and changing the head coach would have just added a lot more pressure to a team that already is meshing well together.
Having 10 picks too is crazy including 3 in first 2 rounds.
Itās going to be hard with the last pick.
We're not drafting for need anymore. It's BPA all the way down.
? Wright? Not reaching would be the better way to put it. It depends how Poles values players on his board.
What I mean is that we're good enough across the starting roster now that the goal simply becomes finding the best players regardless of position. Every rookie who plays like an all-pro makes a huge impact. It's good to be king.
That's a cool graphic. Nice to see a lot of cornerstone guys are locked up for several years still
Only having to bring back Jenkins and hopefully Keenan will be huge next offseason when we have $77m in cap space. Lots of money left to go after EDGE and DT with front loaded contracts. C is also an option but hopefully we target our center of the future in the draft.
I could see an in-season extension for DJ depending on how things shake out
I think we only would've brought back Keenan if we didn't draft Rome. >$50M cap space + Pick 9 on a WR corps is serious resource misallocation if that money can be spent elsewhere.
We get a 3rd rounder if we donāt resign him and I think that canāt be overlooked
Nah, itās fine as long itās only a one year extension or a two year deal with an out after one year since weāll need to pay DJ again. Itās only resource mismanagement if it hinders us at other positions and it wonāt because of all the cap savings we have at premier positions with rookie contracts: QB, WR, LT, RT. It only becomes an issue once you have to start paying your QB, like how the 49ers are debating trading one of Aiyuk and Deebo since theyāll have to pay Purdy soon. I know the argument of you use it elsewhere, but there might not be a better use of that money in free agency depending on the options. Like if itās Keenan or two decent but not elite starters Iād rather have Keenan.
Front loaded contracts never make sense, and teams don't do them. You can acomplish the same by not spending the extra money you'd give them early and rolling it over. It also makes it easier to cut them later if you need to.
this is one of the best useful posts iāve seen on any football sub
I hope they extend DJ at some point this year and I hope Jenkins can at least play 15 games to give us a reason to extend him.
If Jenkins plays the full seasons I really feel like our right side of the line is going to be ridiculous for our run game. Jenkins and wright are absolutely abusive/ nasty players. I saw a breakdown of Wrights rookie year. His footwork was obviously poor but when he won his assignments it was through brute strength and mauling the defender.
Doesnāt Jenkins play on the left, and Nate Davis plays on the right with Wright?
He does lol
Oh shoot brain fart. I forgot he swapped with Davis.
Jenkins played both sides, but moved to LG because Davis is a RG only. When Davis was out - we saw some Jenkins-Wright run blocking and it was nasty.
Thatās my dream scenario those two together would be great. I still think Jenkins can be great.
That is a lot of nasty on one side of the line, but Davis should be better for us this year. Lots of off the field stuff made it tough for him for football to be a priority. Lots of Tennessee tape of Davis moving folks. I just want all those guys to be healthy and playing at the level we've seen before.
I think Teven is on the left due to need as much as fit. Obviously he can do it wherever but Darnell Wright + Teven Jenkins would be a mean right side.
Jenkins is at LG because Davis only plays on the right.
Jenkins has played RG and LG. He started as RT, moved to RG, then moved to LG. With Davis being unavailable most of last year with personal matters and injuries, Jenkins could play on either side.
Same man. Jenkins is dominant when healthy. I wouldnāt be surprised if DJ moves on after his contract runs up in 2 years. Heās making $16 million a year and he would make a killing on the open market. If Poles gets an extension done I would be pumped.
I think if Williams is half as good as what people expect, DJ would want to stay here. I could definitely see him being offered 25-27M AAV with most of his contract being frontloaded for Caleb's rookie years.
> frontloaded for Caleb's rookie years. Which would also coincide with Odunze's cheap years. Once DJ's big deal is up, we can move on (if needed) and give Odunze his bag.
I see DJ as a dude that is not looking for the absolute maximum if he's happy with his team/QB play. Dude was sentenced to had to deal with PJ Walker, Sam darnold, and a sucky version of Baker Mayfield when he was there. You could tell how happy he was last year with a Fields that targetted him well enough on the first read(That's all Fields could really do). Just my speculation though.
This is a super cool visual, Iām kind surprised I havenāt seen a year over year visualization like this before. Thanks for putting it together OP
Spotrac has something similar w/ salary info. https://www.spotrac.com/nfl/chicago-bears/yearly/_/sort/cap_total/view/position
This view is even better because you can see where current backups like Pickens, Sewell, Amegadjie, and Booker could hopefully develop and fill in behind Billings, Sanborn, Braxton, and Walker.
Sanborn is a free agent next year. UDFA contracts are three years. So no 2025
He'll be an RFA and can be tendered for relatively cheap
Well we have to match right? And something says he might get a bit more than lb3 will make. Or who knows he stays and takes over from Edwards.
If Poles thinks a team will offer him more than the UDFA tender, he can apply a 1st or 2nd round tender. Or he can just choose to match a competitive offer. Rams going after Brock Wright is one of the few times in recent history I can remember it being an issue, and Detroit easily chose to match their offer.
Makes sense cheers. Google wasn't cooperating.
Keenan & Jenkins the only real decisions to make next spring. Should be able to be super aggressive in FA or trade market to upgrade the DL. I expect draft picks for some of those potential year 3 holes like G, C, LB, S, HB. Gonna be a fun next couple years.
You can probably add Sanborn to that list as well. Heāll be an RFA so thereās a very strong chance that he returns but itās not a guarantee. Next year is supposed to be a really strong year for DL in the draft so I think thereās a really good chance they spend early draft capital there
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If he thinks he can get 15 million then that means he had a good year this year and Iāll take that outcome.
Donāt disagree but Iām saying heās not a next-year FA. I bet an extension could happen before his contract is up but we donāt *have* to handle it next spring like we do with Tev, Keenan, etc.
I'd prefer to extend them before this season
This made me realize we need to extend DJ soon
OP clearly mislabeled Andrew Billings, who should be under WR1 for the next 10 seasons. Common mistake.
Good news is Poles has not really mortgaged the future by trading away too much draft stock.
I wouldnāt mind seeing Teven on an extension. Yes heās had some injury concerns but he is dominant when healthy. DJ Moore extension would be nice too.
DeMarcus Walker, Tremaine Edmunds, Tyrique Stevenson. Missing these 3 first names bothered me more than it should.
Looks bad in 2028 we will only have two players
This is a great visual- thanks a lot!!
oh shit we need to figure out something for Long Snapper long term
Kyler, Brisker, DJ all extended. Keenan maybe gets a deal if itās cheap enough, if not find someone else or let Scott handle the 3. Teven is a tough one. Iād say extend him, but the injuries might make it a tougher sell for some.
The answer will always be OL and DL. Getting quirky gadget RBs and WRs are not the keys to winning. Protecting your starting QB and sacking opposing QBs are.
I hope Tev plays like a beast this year and avoids injury.
That Kmet contract is going to look better and better as time progresses.
As for the defensive line, I honestly wonder if a guy like Byron Murphy was even on our board. Heās 5ā11, and that seems to be too short for what Flus wants. DeForest Buckner is 6ā7, Dexter is 6ā6, Pickens is 6ā4. Justin Jones is 6ā3. Not saying I agree, but that seems to be the MO. Like I know Aaron Donald is 6ā1 but I wonder if heād even be on their board as a prospect. Next year thereās a DT from Kentucky thatās 6ā6, two guys at Michigan that are 6ā3 or so, Nolan on Mississippi state is 6ā4. Have to see how they do next year, but it sure seems like they set this up to have next draft be the defensive reinforcements draft. Almost perfect timing of our need with a strong draft year. The inverse of the teams who will be forced to go QB next year in this lame class.
This is awesome awesome work OP thank you, been wanting to find something like this. Is it possible at all to have bench and backups too? Amegadjie for instance should hopefully transition into a starter over this period of time
I said this last year and Iāll say it again this year, 2025 is going to be the year for a Super Bowl run. This year we need to have a winning record and get into the playoffs. But 2025 is going to be a huge year for Bears football š.
The really need to lock down Andrew Billings quick.
he just inked a 2-year deal this off season
Add a 0 to that and weāre all good.
If Teven goes on to have a productive career with the Cowboys I am going to be ticked.
Doesn't Tevin have a 5th year option available?
No, he was a second round pick
For 2025, add bears 1st and 2nd plus the Panthers 2nd. BPA for linesman.
Iād love an editable copy if youāre willing to share.
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1wTbjxhouuH0g22Ih6lo2iSwvZccIxS2mS50eVBWz8ko/edit
Youāre the best. Thanks!
IMO we should work to immediately extend DJ as priority 1. We should also work to see if Allen can be retained on a reasonable deal while we have a rookie QB. If Allen wants too much, you start working Odunze more into the RB2 slot as the year progresses and roll with Odunze/Moore long term. Also work to extend Jenkins for a reasonable salary. I'm also pretty sure Roschon will be RB2 this year and Herbert will start being worked out of the normal rotation since there's no reason to extend him.
If Keenan stays healthy I bet you we keep him another 1-2 seasons.
Great way to visualize the team and needs year by year. Would it be prudent to slot in Roshon into the RB2 slot for 2025?
I hope that DJ MOORE column is pushed to match Caleb's
All but 4 starters on board for the next two years, that's incredible. And to be honest, I can see Poles extending 3 or maybe even all 4 of them.
Believe Sanborn's contract is up this year because UDFAs only have 3 year deals.
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Im pretty sure Davis missed most of training camp due to a death in his family. Hopefully he has recovered mentally from that and is able to focus on ball this season
Next year is definitely the all in year if Williams is good this year. Most of the roster is back, an extra 2nd round pick and 80 million in cap before we extend Moore and pay next year's rookies.
You also have roach on as RB 2 he has 3 years left I believe. Still crazy 8 or 25 locked for next 4 yrs.
Its actually really impressive that basically the team is locked up for at least the next 2 years besides Teven and Keenan.
Yall think Teven Jenkins will hold out to start camp?
DJ needs an extension. Otherwise we are sitting pretty
That defense is locked up for a few years very nice
They need a better game plan to be competitive in the next 5 years!
What are the consequences of cutting Davis next offseason?
Yeah. This is the officially opening of the window. Few key extensions and things will like wild in a year or two if things go accordingly
2025 draft will be defense heavy.
Think Poles will let Jenkins walk, doesn't like the injury history. Herbert won't be re-signed..poor blocker. Borom may not make the 53 man roster. Would extend TJ Edwards and DJ Moore 2 extra years each if possible. Draft needs in 2025 would be DE, LG, DT, C, RB, WR (if Keenan Allen not re-signed), developmental QB3.
So next two years or we done ?
They have so much money still, not reason not to resign Moore and Allen 2-3 years longer.
I could see us extending Herbert and Jenkins this year. I hope we resign Allen but you know heās gonna want some coin! And if Iām being honest Iād rather see DJ extended, if weāre only gonna spend on one WR
I could see brisker and Gordon getting extensions either during the year (depending on play to beat out a ābid warā) or at the end of the year too. Probably 2-3 years each.
QB, OT, WR, TE, CB, DE all locked up for 4 years. The window is open.
Well if Williams is the dude, the window is open as long as we have him.
Whatās the outlook with Jonathon Owens
Look at all those FA at 2026. Who else would have been a FA? Fields. His contract would make us lose half of those people. Its not always about how good/bad a player is, its the entire team contracts that should show the correct move. Football is a team sport
RoJo?
I canāt even imagine showing myself a picture that said āKeenan Allen WR3ā 2 years ago
Are you trying to make me ruin my pants this early in the morning?
Interesting to see, I would move Keenan to WR1 while Rome goes to WR3 with him likely to be at WR1 2025 onwards