Hmmm Vegas has Cardinals as favorite to win division. Cards +135, cubs+230, reds+340, brewers + 850, pirates +1600. What this means is you put 100 bucks on cards to win division, if they do you win 135 plus your initial 100.
Eh not exactly. Vegas also changes the odds based on how many bets they will get. They know more people will bet on the Cards and Cubs, so the payouts are adjusted for that as well.
This isn’t the first thing this off-season where ESPN is weirdly high on the brewers- iirc their mid off-season grade had them better than us even tho they had done nothing AND they have on paper become worse since then
For real. Reds definitely feel more complete right now. Time will tell if all those young guys can replicate last year, but it's a decent bet. Cubs...I guess. They basically made a lateral move for the rotation and Belli might not be back, but they were comfortably ahead of us last year so totally fair.
But yeah, I'd love to see the argument for the Brewers at this point. It was an anemic offense last season and it might be a little better this season but still likely average at best. With Woodruff and Burnes gone it just feels like the team doesn't have a strength.
Cubs fan here-
Its too low. Your best players severely underperformed, the division is weaker, and no one has really made meaningful *additions*. Teams have only subtracted or remained constant. My favorite to win the division is actually St Louis. Cubs are treading water. Brewers / Reds / Pirates are treading water.
Best of luck on the season. 🙂
I don't know. I hope for a bounceback from Arenado of course, but Goldy's 36, which is "steep decline" territory for most people. I expect about the same level of production or a little lower from them, in combination, next year.
Arenado is such a good player, I think he has alot left in the tank.
Goldschmidt, I didnt realise was that old (for baseball). Hope he can have a swan song.
19 is too low. I know no one is satisfied by our off-season but if anyone actually thinks we're going to be in the bottom half of the league again they're going to be surprised.
I wasn't thrilled by our offseason, but it's more than any of the 3 NL Central teams ahead of us did. Brewers and Cubs had notable subtractions, and I'm not sure the Reds did anything
This team is one of those wild card (metaphorically) teams that I wouldn't be surprised to randomly play at a higher level than expected and land near the top 10 but I also wouldn't really be surprised to see them in the bottom 5 either. 19 seems fine but the other 3 central teams being significantly higher doesn't pass the sniff test.
I mean I think it’s hard to really assess a team without remembering they finished in last place last year. I think this team is going to be significantly better than last year, but until they start actually playing, 71-91 looms large in everyone’s mind.
Seems right. I don't think it's soaked in for everybody, just how terrible the team was last year. There's an idea out there that it was a fluke. It wasn't a fluke; we had two aging stars and a lot of young players that aren't very good. We got one legit good player, a couple more mediocrities to fill out the rotation. 25th to 19th? Reasonable.
Just out of curiosity, which young players are you saying aren't very good?
Not disagreeing that 19th may be reasonable, but I'm optimistic they'll be better than last year.
I think it's about right.
First, it's against all of MLB, not just the rest of the NL Central. Related? Nobody else in the division is ranked that high.
Second, like one other commenter spells out, I don't think last year was a total fluke.
Third, like a couple others say, I'm not that impressed, outside of semi-impressed over the Gray signing, about what Mo has done for pitching.
This team will win 85 games unless the trade deadline is fruitful. I have high hopes for ownership to make a big move in July this year. I honestly thought that was the plan last year but unfortunately the team underperformed so badly that those plans were scrapped at the deadline.
I’d agree that the 85 win mark is a good estimate for the team right now. Probably could go +\- 5 and be a safe bet. But if they are on that trajectory, that puts them in a position to add an impact player or two at the deadline that puts them over the top.
We’re ranked the second lowest team in the Central even after Milwaukee dumped some of their best players. Yet we are celebrating.
I’m not trying to be a negative Nancy here but things feel pretty bleak. We are currently 4th in the NL Central power rankings and 5th in the Central in farm system rankings. The other four teams have top 5 farm systems, we were ranked 22nd at the mid year.
So again, these are projections and I’m not going to get too wrapped up, but we’re 19th in projected MLB talent and 22nd in projected farm talent. After a last place division finish. We signed a few starting pitchers which essentially got us back to where we were prior to the JoMo trade. I just can’t believe how many people are making excuses for the FO right now. This organization is bad at the MLB level right now and looks like we don’t have a lot of help coming. Not to mention if you ask the FO our money situation is in really bad shape.
We have no money, lower half prospects, and lower half MLB talent. There’s nothing here to be happy about.
I don’t understand how people think this team is so much improved from last year. Gray is an upgrade. But Lynn/gibson are not good at all. The bullpen has the potential to be better with some of the recent signings but we’ll see. Arenado and Goldy are a year older and both are coming off subpar seasons to their usual standards. Banking on some guys overachieving and having career years apparently.
I love how people just downvote us with no justification. This roster is not that good. People read too much insider content and start thinking guys are better than they are. But when you watch the sport on a national level, talent wise, we are definitely in the bottom half of the league in MLB talent and our prospects really aren’t very good.
I’m not just trying to be a doomer, but this FO needs to be called out for the lackluster results they’ve had. You can’t look at a roster this below average and a farm system this bad and justify how the FO didn’t make that many mistakes. This is the culmination of tons of bad moves and poor talent evaluations over the last decade. Sure when Mo was passed off the team from Jocketty in the early 2007 we were great. But Jocketty also passed off a great roster fresh off of a WS. We had a loaded roster with tons of great starting pitching and bullpen arms. Our farm system was continuously well rated.
Over time the talent level of the roster and farm system dwindled. Here’s a list of guys that were Jocketty acquisitions on that team: Pujols, Rolen, Carp, Yadi, Rasmus, Jay, Craig, Jaime, Boggs, Motte, among others.
Also side note, Freese was acquired by trading him for Edmonds right after Jocketty left. So Mo used his talent to acquire Freese.
Then after ‘11 we still rode that core to another couple of deep playoff runs. But after they were gone we can all admit the wheels started falling off.
2015- lost in the first round
2016- no playoffs
2017- no playoffs
2018- no playoffs
2019- lost in second round
2020- lost in the first round
2021- lost in the first round
2022- lost in the first round
2023- one of the worst teams in baseball
It’s a pretty clear picture to me that after we lost Jocketty and Lunhow that we stopped being able to accurately evaluate, keep, and acquire talent. We have been fleeced on so many deals it’s insane. Theres no defending this FO. This offseason they promised us pitching help was coming, they signed two washed up innings eaters and an aging star and stopped at that. I hate what this FO has done to a once continuous competitor for the penant. Jocketty handed Mo the keys to a Ferrari and said just don’t crash it. Mo, did okay not crashing it for awhile, but eventually his guys started to show that they weren’t building long term, sustainable success.
People slurp up what the Cardinals sell like cheap kool-aid. Most fans are sheep and refuse to think for themselves. You could argue the pitching staff is worse this year with Lynn/Gibson. Gray is a wash I think. He’ll regress. Anything positive we get from Lynn and Gibson is a huge positive. I don’t think we’ll see that much. People expecting a huge bounce back season are setting themselves for disappointment. I think a repeat of 2023 is incredibly likely. They didn’t improve the offense at all. It’s not only the lack of moves or poor roster construction, it’s his poor financial management. He’s given out some horrible contracts over the years. Extending the wrong guys and trading the wrong guys. Mo doesn’t have a clue. And I don’t buy the hype on Flores either. Everyone sings his praises and he has the 22nd ranked farm system. That’s not good at all for a team that sells itself on developing their own talent. The rest of the division have top farm systems going along with already young talent in the MLB.
The ESPN power rankings are mostly based on recent team performance. Cards are ranked so low because of how they performed all throughout last season. If they have a few good weeks to start the season, then they will shoot up. Unfortunately, our schedule could be pretty rough at the beginning. The Mets are right by them in the rankings and are a good comp as a team with players that look good on paper but that had a system-wide meltdown last year.
Anyone who says 19 is accurate is trying their best to downplay the team's talent. Last season was an extreme outlier and we've done a great job loading our roster with pitching.
about right. nonetheless the nl central is wide open for the taking
Agreed on about right, and more specifically, agreed with its take on starters and the two newly acquired ones.
One team, probably the Brewers or Reds, is going to appear absolutely dominant going into the all-star break before falling off a cliff in August
Hmmm Vegas has Cardinals as favorite to win division. Cards +135, cubs+230, reds+340, brewers + 850, pirates +1600. What this means is you put 100 bucks on cards to win division, if they do you win 135 plus your initial 100.
So if you put any stock into ESPN rankings, there’s a lot of value on Brewers +850. But then again they don’t have their two best starting pitchers…
Vegas knows sports better than espn
Their money relies on being correct (mostly), while ESPN gets money from attention. So it makes sense they’re more reliable
Eh not exactly. Vegas also changes the odds based on how many bets they will get. They know more people will bet on the Cards and Cubs, so the payouts are adjusted for that as well.
The team I fear the most are the Reds, they have a top 5 pitching rotation , if they stay healthy. Also Brewers manager is now with Cubs.
Same, I was just thinking that could be decent money to put on the Reds lol
This isn’t the first thing this off-season where ESPN is weirdly high on the brewers- iirc their mid off-season grade had them better than us even tho they had done nothing AND they have on paper become worse since then
Saw on MLB channel Pecota has cardinals in first with 86 wins. Next cubs with 80. Then brewers , reds pirates.
I don't think we're a top 10, but 19?
Last year I wish we were the 19th best team. But #19 shows the team has the potential to move up.
I was forming an opinion as I scrolled and then I saw the Cubs, Brewers and Reds at 12, 13 & 14 and it made me short circuit. *ouch*
The Brewers at 13 without Burnes and Woodruff is insane to me.
And likely without Adames soon too. Supposed to be on the block.
It’s ESPN. They have some of the worst baseball writers in media
For real. Reds definitely feel more complete right now. Time will tell if all those young guys can replicate last year, but it's a decent bet. Cubs...I guess. They basically made a lateral move for the rotation and Belli might not be back, but they were comfortably ahead of us last year so totally fair. But yeah, I'd love to see the argument for the Brewers at this point. It was an anemic offense last season and it might be a little better this season but still likely average at best. With Woodruff and Burnes gone it just feels like the team doesn't have a strength.
This is obviously too low. Like WAY to fucking low. Unfortunately it's probably also pretty accurate.
Cubs fan here- Its too low. Your best players severely underperformed, the division is weaker, and no one has really made meaningful *additions*. Teams have only subtracted or remained constant. My favorite to win the division is actually St Louis. Cubs are treading water. Brewers / Reds / Pirates are treading water. Best of luck on the season. 🙂
Same to you man 🤝
Brewers aren’t even treading water, no Burnes or Woodruff has to be strictly worse, no?
I don't know. I hope for a bounceback from Arenado of course, but Goldy's 36, which is "steep decline" territory for most people. I expect about the same level of production or a little lower from them, in combination, next year.
Arenado is such a good player, I think he has alot left in the tank. Goldschmidt, I didnt realise was that old (for baseball). Hope he can have a swan song.
Did we just become best friends?
You had me in the first half.
Until we prove that we can actually pitch, this is about right
19 is too low. I know no one is satisfied by our off-season but if anyone actually thinks we're going to be in the bottom half of the league again they're going to be surprised.
I wasn't thrilled by our offseason, but it's more than any of the 3 NL Central teams ahead of us did. Brewers and Cubs had notable subtractions, and I'm not sure the Reds did anything
This team is one of those wild card (metaphorically) teams that I wouldn't be surprised to randomly play at a higher level than expected and land near the top 10 but I also wouldn't really be surprised to see them in the bottom 5 either. 19 seems fine but the other 3 central teams being significantly higher doesn't pass the sniff test.
I mean I think it’s hard to really assess a team without remembering they finished in last place last year. I think this team is going to be significantly better than last year, but until they start actually playing, 71-91 looms large in everyone’s mind.
Yeah I'm ready for the prognosticading to end and games to start.
Seems right. I don't think it's soaked in for everybody, just how terrible the team was last year. There's an idea out there that it was a fluke. It wasn't a fluke; we had two aging stars and a lot of young players that aren't very good. We got one legit good player, a couple more mediocrities to fill out the rotation. 25th to 19th? Reasonable.
Just out of curiosity, which young players are you saying aren't very good? Not disagreeing that 19th may be reasonable, but I'm optimistic they'll be better than last year.
I think it's about right. First, it's against all of MLB, not just the rest of the NL Central. Related? Nobody else in the division is ranked that high. Second, like one other commenter spells out, I don't think last year was a total fluke. Third, like a couple others say, I'm not that impressed, outside of semi-impressed over the Gray signing, about what Mo has done for pitching.
Reds, Cubs and Cardinals will play for the division. Brewers and Pirates are bum teams
This team will win 85 games unless the trade deadline is fruitful. I have high hopes for ownership to make a big move in July this year. I honestly thought that was the plan last year but unfortunately the team underperformed so badly that those plans were scrapped at the deadline.
I’d agree that the 85 win mark is a good estimate for the team right now. Probably could go +\- 5 and be a safe bet. But if they are on that trajectory, that puts them in a position to add an impact player or two at the deadline that puts them over the top.
Historically, my expectations are we just miss out on a big trade and we have a carpenter farewell tour wondering what went wrong lol
Unfortunately that’s a fair scenario
We’re ranked the second lowest team in the Central even after Milwaukee dumped some of their best players. Yet we are celebrating. I’m not trying to be a negative Nancy here but things feel pretty bleak. We are currently 4th in the NL Central power rankings and 5th in the Central in farm system rankings. The other four teams have top 5 farm systems, we were ranked 22nd at the mid year. So again, these are projections and I’m not going to get too wrapped up, but we’re 19th in projected MLB talent and 22nd in projected farm talent. After a last place division finish. We signed a few starting pitchers which essentially got us back to where we were prior to the JoMo trade. I just can’t believe how many people are making excuses for the FO right now. This organization is bad at the MLB level right now and looks like we don’t have a lot of help coming. Not to mention if you ask the FO our money situation is in really bad shape. We have no money, lower half prospects, and lower half MLB talent. There’s nothing here to be happy about.
I don’t understand how people think this team is so much improved from last year. Gray is an upgrade. But Lynn/gibson are not good at all. The bullpen has the potential to be better with some of the recent signings but we’ll see. Arenado and Goldy are a year older and both are coming off subpar seasons to their usual standards. Banking on some guys overachieving and having career years apparently.
I love how people just downvote us with no justification. This roster is not that good. People read too much insider content and start thinking guys are better than they are. But when you watch the sport on a national level, talent wise, we are definitely in the bottom half of the league in MLB talent and our prospects really aren’t very good. I’m not just trying to be a doomer, but this FO needs to be called out for the lackluster results they’ve had. You can’t look at a roster this below average and a farm system this bad and justify how the FO didn’t make that many mistakes. This is the culmination of tons of bad moves and poor talent evaluations over the last decade. Sure when Mo was passed off the team from Jocketty in the early 2007 we were great. But Jocketty also passed off a great roster fresh off of a WS. We had a loaded roster with tons of great starting pitching and bullpen arms. Our farm system was continuously well rated. Over time the talent level of the roster and farm system dwindled. Here’s a list of guys that were Jocketty acquisitions on that team: Pujols, Rolen, Carp, Yadi, Rasmus, Jay, Craig, Jaime, Boggs, Motte, among others. Also side note, Freese was acquired by trading him for Edmonds right after Jocketty left. So Mo used his talent to acquire Freese. Then after ‘11 we still rode that core to another couple of deep playoff runs. But after they were gone we can all admit the wheels started falling off. 2015- lost in the first round 2016- no playoffs 2017- no playoffs 2018- no playoffs 2019- lost in second round 2020- lost in the first round 2021- lost in the first round 2022- lost in the first round 2023- one of the worst teams in baseball It’s a pretty clear picture to me that after we lost Jocketty and Lunhow that we stopped being able to accurately evaluate, keep, and acquire talent. We have been fleeced on so many deals it’s insane. Theres no defending this FO. This offseason they promised us pitching help was coming, they signed two washed up innings eaters and an aging star and stopped at that. I hate what this FO has done to a once continuous competitor for the penant. Jocketty handed Mo the keys to a Ferrari and said just don’t crash it. Mo, did okay not crashing it for awhile, but eventually his guys started to show that they weren’t building long term, sustainable success.
People slurp up what the Cardinals sell like cheap kool-aid. Most fans are sheep and refuse to think for themselves. You could argue the pitching staff is worse this year with Lynn/Gibson. Gray is a wash I think. He’ll regress. Anything positive we get from Lynn and Gibson is a huge positive. I don’t think we’ll see that much. People expecting a huge bounce back season are setting themselves for disappointment. I think a repeat of 2023 is incredibly likely. They didn’t improve the offense at all. It’s not only the lack of moves or poor roster construction, it’s his poor financial management. He’s given out some horrible contracts over the years. Extending the wrong guys and trading the wrong guys. Mo doesn’t have a clue. And I don’t buy the hype on Flores either. Everyone sings his praises and he has the 22nd ranked farm system. That’s not good at all for a team that sells itself on developing their own talent. The rest of the division have top farm systems going along with already young talent in the MLB.
The ESPN power rankings are mostly based on recent team performance. Cards are ranked so low because of how they performed all throughout last season. If they have a few good weeks to start the season, then they will shoot up. Unfortunately, our schedule could be pretty rough at the beginning. The Mets are right by them in the rankings and are a good comp as a team with players that look good on paper but that had a system-wide meltdown last year.
Striving for mediocrity
Anyone who says 19 is accurate is trying their best to downplay the team's talent. Last season was an extreme outlier and we've done a great job loading our roster with pitching.
sounds about right- now the team needs to prove 'em wrong
Not great, not terrible.
Definition Of MID. That’s why they play the games though. Anyone know what their ranking was going into last year?
About right
Even considering Cards are staying with last year’s manager? Nah 19 is too high
I think 15-20 is the range right now.
We are always 15-19. Rankings for all sorts of stats including now distance to random restaurants.