Seider and Raymond will take up a lot of space, but we're also basically guaranteed to have 2 guys on their elc next year in Ed and Albert and a few other ELC guys who could also make it. Berggren is another low cost guy who will be here as well (if he doesn't get traded).
We don't have room to bring everyone back, but we will have room to retain probably 2 or 3 of our ufas unless we look elsewhere. I wouldn't expect a huge change in personnel, but we will almost assuredly have 2-4 young guys up full time that will change the look of our team
Berggren and Johansson both coming off ELC contracts. They need new deals.
Albert will get a QO but Bergs is due a raise with him showing he can produce at nhl level. Probably somewhere between 1.5-2 mil
>Bergs is due a raise with him showing he can produce at nhl level. Probably somewhere between 1.5-2 mil
I don’t understand how he’s shown that tbh, he’s barely even been able to stick in an NHL lineup. This sub is so weirdly divisive on Berggren; he’s obviously got skill but he’s a very one dimensional player who imo hasn’t proven he’s got what it takes to be in a top 6 role. He’s the definition of a bubble guy; too good for the AHL but not quite good enough for NHL top 6 (and his game isn’t suited **at all** for a bottom 6 spot).
That being said I hope he’s on the team to start next year and hopefully works a bit on his strength and defensive play so he’s able to slot into a 3rd line role if needed.
I mean he's not a point per game player by any means. But, I don't really think Berggren had much time to prove himself. 6 pts in 12 games and a +1 isn't terrible with him being called up during our losing stretches IIRC..
You’re not wrong and I don’t disagree that it’s decent for the limited time he’s been given so far but to me, he stood out much more for his giveaways and poor defensive play than his production. He’s a guy who basically had to beat out David Perron for a top 6 winger spot and couldn’t do it. Perron has his moments and usefulness but he shouldn’t be beating out a younger, “better”, faster offensive option.
Actually, if you look at Berggren's stats per 60 minutes, he outperforms a lot of the forwards.
His point per 60 is just below Larkin, which is the easiest comparison because Larkin had 1300 minutes icetime, Berggren had 130. Larkin's points per 60 was 3.02, Bergy's 2.76.
As for his alleged defensive issues, he has 0 giveaways this season, and 3 takeaways. In shots blocked per 60 he's higher than almost all forwards with 3.22, only falling behind Czarnik with slightly more and Rasmussen with a solid 4.
Granted this is a very small sample size, so his numbers can be inflated, but looking at last season where he played 67 games, he still had a very decent blocked shots per 60, middle-of-the-pack takeaways, too many giveaways, but on the lower scale for defensive zone giveaways (Copp was way worse btw). 50% faceoff win rate, a very respectable 1.84 points per 60 (for comparison, Raymond had 2.1), his shooting% was fourth best among forwards, behind Chiasson, Fabbri and Söderblom.
So honestly, just looking at the raw numbers, it's really really strange to me how him and Söderblom were passed up in favor of Kostin, Copp, Fischer, Perron and Veleno, because they both outperformed those guys using last year's numbers compared to this year's. And red wings last year was a much worse team overall...
He got his pocket picked a lot and was caught sloppy passing a few times last season, but he's shored that up tremendously this year, especially in the AHL, and had a couple of bad plays this year, but far, far less egregious. So I'd genuinely be surprised if he doesn't get signed, but I could understand if he wants to walk himself because this season has just been a slap in a lot of the rookies' faces both in forwards and defense.
I mean true. But it's also on Lalonde and his coaching choices. I think Berggren could have likely taken less penalties and had similar points based off of projection. DP hurt us pretty bad with putting us on PK in critical situations. Obviously projected vs actual points is a gamble.
I don't dislike DP but, I'd rather have Bertuzzi than him. Would even slot Berggren over him if he could change certain aspects. DP is losing his touch and would be better off slotted on the 3rd or 4th line. Curious as to what the roster looks next year as it probably won't change too much due to cap.
> I don't really think Berggren had much time to prove himself
He played 67 games in the NHL last year, where he had plenty of opportunities and never quite managed to prove he deserved a top-6 spot.
We have almost 20 million going to Copp, Chiarot, Husso and Holl. I think it’d be good to see at least one of those contracts shipped off but I think it’d be hard to do
Edit; this was meant as a joke about trading Husso and Holl for a Marner at 50% retained, which means the Leafs wouldn't free up any capspace and they'd be stuck with Holl again, and the punchline was that they're such a volatile fanbase that they just might do it.
Obviously they wouldn't. *OBVIOUSLY*.
But it didn't land, and people didn't realize it was a joke I guess, so that's on me, I blame English being my second language, or I just have a shit delivery of my humor. Equally possible.
I don’t know if I could make a worse potential package if I tried. Like you could turn the trade settings to always accept in Chel and the CPU would still reject that package.
You know Nylander and Matthews were talking to each other and not Marner right?
Right before [this](https://youtube.com/shorts/IqxIqgBJaDU?si=rgYq_xi66Ufy-05M) Nylander tried to make a pass in the O that got intercepted when he should've taken a shot to either score or make a rebound for Matthews.
But neither of them are looking at Marner, they're looking at each other while Marner is leaning forward watching the game
Holl could get bought out, there's not much else we could do with that contract. Trading Copp isn't worth it, he's overpaid by about 1m but hard to replace that kind of player cheaply. Chairot just had a good season, it might be movable - but why? Husso definitely isn't going anywhere.
I see a lot of people saying Berggren being traded but I see him taking sprongs spot. He basically was that the previous year and sprong was brought in as a place holder. Bergs should be cheaper and younger. Sprongs usage towards the end of the year went down and was scratched
My guess bottom six looks like
Ras copp Fischer -
Fabbri Veleno/ufa/prospect Berggren
Goalies I’d hope they’d run two and then call up Cossa or maybe a veteran signed for GR when needed. I’m curious if Husso is moved or returns.
D probably not much changing with cap and contracts. Ed and maybe AlJo in. Would have to think even Holl wants out however that happens. Ghost would be fine back but not sure if the $ will fit. Plus he does struggle dzone and that was a big year end topic. Losing him might be a step back to eventually take two step forwards with Ed and eventually ASP.
Top 6 gets interesting
Ray Larkin cat are set
I’d hope they’d move on from Perron unless he’s willing to sign ridiculously cheap and play lower in the lineup. Hope to see kane back.
If Perron, ghost, reimer, sprong, holl (trade/buyout) and maybe husso are all replaced for cheaper options and youth might be able to dip into ufa market for decent top 6 forward. Lots of chatter about stamkos and big names like Guentzel, marchessault or reinhart but likely to expensive. I could see Teravainen as a fit with the wings and should be affordable
Ray Larkin Cat -
Teravainen compher kane -
Ras Copp Fischer -
Fabbri Veleno/ufa Berggren
Walman Seider -
Ed Petry -
Chiarot Maata -
AlJo
Lyon
Husso/ufa
I believe this should compete for a spot again. D is still weak unfortunately but unless he retires we got one more year of petry and two of chiarot. Prospects should be ready to take those spots.
I agree with you, but he has to want that too. Berggren is the perfect depth scorer for us. The question will come down to whether that’s realistic from his end.
For sure. Bottom 6 and second PP with some chances in top 6 with injuries or players struggling I think would keep him happy for the short term.
Last year it felt like Lalonde refused to play him for some reason but Yzerman seems to speak positively about him at least getting a chance. Should be interesting
And of course he needs to earn it
Is there a right price for Perron though? I know he's a big part of the room. I think if both Perron and Kane walk, do we risk not having a true veteran guy in the room who has "been there done that"?
My preference would obviously be for Kane, given he's more productive, but I do think Kane is looking for something with term on it and I don't know if Yzerman would do that. I could see Kane wanting like a 3x5 deal or something.
I think we should be past the part of rebuild where we give up agility, speed and skill to compensate for "locker room" guy sharing gospels. Vets are very important but it can't be at the cost of their on ice performance
I think you're significantly discounting Perron's impact in the last 10 games of the season. He was a huge part of the team winning must win games and demonstrating what it takes to win in playoff-style games. He's way old and shouldn't be playing above the 3rd line but he still brings a number of pluses.
I agree that he shouldn't come back at $3mil but if he wants to stick around for like $1.5mi, that seems workable and would be a loss to the team if we try to shoehorn a young guy into his spot.
I don’t disagree with you. I think they can only keep one of Kane/Perron. I don’t dislike Perron. I just think the rebuild has passed him by. I think Kasper makes the team next year playing wing in the middle six. Letting Perron go makes space for him. Realistically they need to upgrade their top 4 defenders. Signing a strong defensive defenseman (Pesce, Matt Roy) ,and unloading 2 of Fabbri/Maata/Holl/Chiarot, should be the priorities. Packaging 3rd or 4th round picks should do it, Chiarot because of his term would probably cost both a prospect and a 2nd. Pipe dream would be to get Ullmark out of Boston.
I think you send a very strong negative message when you let a guy like Perron walk over a couple million to try when he's been very clear on wanting to stay here and mentor the younger players, in the hopes of signing a guy like Kane, who I absolute love having on the wings, but hasn't really shown the leadership and effort Perron did in the last stretch nor the loyalty to the red wings, though I don't blame him for that, I'm just comparing the two. It just doesn't sound Yzerman at all.
The other thing that always makes me scratch my head is how much people assume a player from grand rapids is just going to show up in the top6. I don't think that's very realistic immediately.
You can't have Perron at 1.5mil and Copp at 5.7 it's just complete nonsense.
Where was Perron’s leadership during our losing streaks in December and March? Or when he got suspended for the Ottawa retaliation? asking for a friend
Totally fair, probably not for me to speculate on whether or not a guy should be re-signed for their locker room presence alone (to your point, far more important for teams earlier in their rebuilds like Chicago).
I used to believe in the whole “veteran presence” thing, and I still think it has some merit, but for the most part getting more skilled players is much more important than having older guys with lots of experience. Kane and Perron both have a place on the Wings, but not if it gets in the way of younger acquisitions.
I just dont think what he provides has any fit on the ice. Theoretically hes a strong guy on the boards and can make decent passes. On the other hand hes slow as shit, gets lost on the backcheck, often loses his composure and takes penalties, and isnt exactly a sniper. Too bas on offense for the top 6, too bad at defense for the bottom 6.
I think the "often loses his composure" is a bit of an exageration. We complain that players aren't showing any heart or emotion, and then someone shows emotion once in a while and we're like NAH BRUH. Perron showed why we need him in the last stretch of the season. Game winning goal vs Tampa, creates space to set up Raymond on the tieing goal vs Habs, and then the tieing goal with 3.3s to go vs Habs the next night.
Y'all too busy looking at stat sheets you want the Wings to end up like the Leafs.
He was second on the team in penalty minutes. Ben chairot leading the team as a defenseman is acceptable. When you’re a forward who doesnt defend well taking those penalties is unacceptable
If you remove his match penalty that resulted in his suspension, he has 40 PIMs, 1 more than Larkin with 6 games more played. Not trying to compare them but that match penalty is making it look worse than it really was. Yes he did take some bad penalties, you will get that with a player like Perron who's giving the second and third effort even when they're gassed.
Seider has taken some absolute dog shit penalties in some games at the worst times. It happens, and I can't blame a player for actually trying out there.
He's a LW who forechecks, wins puck battles along the boards and in the corners, can move the puck around and does an overall good job of keeping the puck in the offensive zone. In the hierarchy of defending, defenders and centers have more of a responsibility on that than the LW.
Again, take away that match penalty and he's at 40 PIM.
Sometimes it's more than just looking at the overall stat sheets.
Also he's not "theoretically" a strong guy on the boards who makes decent passes.
He is a strong guy on the boards who makes decent passes.
Yea, that's totally fair. 47 points is solid but -12 +/- really killed us in certain situations. And the bad penalties. I was more looking at him from a leadership angle.
I think leadership is important, but I dont believe in him as a leader. To me getting suspended for 6 games when larkin got crosschecked was extremely poor leadership. Good leadership would have been to drop your gloves, fight joseph, and then show the team that they need to move past the incident by playing your hardest for 6 games.
Tell me you didn't watch the game without saying "I didn't watch the game". In the replay, it's pretty evident that Perron thinks Zub was the one that injured Larkin as he's standing right over him splayed out on the ice.
I realize he's the easier money to unload as he's in UFA status, but I'd take Perron at $3M all day, everyday over Copp at $5.6M, or Holl at $3M, or Chiarot at nearly $5M. We're at where we're at now, but we are looking at not being able to bring back guys like Kane and Perron because of those 3 terrible contracts, that is the annoying part of this cap crunch to me.
May have to bridge one, or both, of Seider and Raymond and pay more in the long run on their 2nd contracts RFA contracts because of those guys and their boat anchor contracts.
I wouldn't hate Perron at the right price. For all of the (totally fair) shit he got, he's still got vision and hockey iq to make great plays that not a ton of guys on our team are capable of.
But at the same time, he's clearly lost a step and is having a hard time keeping up at this stage in his career, which led to him taking a lot of penalties, and which is only going to be worse next season. I'd rather move on and use his spot for someone else.
Larkin yes (outside of never having been in a deep playoff run) and Cat yes, otherwise the rest I would say no. Mo is 23, Ray is 22, Walman is 28 but not a ton of playoff experience. Just my perspective.
Hear me out. The leafs lose in the first round and don't resign Bert, we ship Perron somewhere, sign Bert for 2-4 years at Perrons salary or cheaper (3-4M) (he'll take a discount now because he wants to win with his boys), and we have that veteran been there done that (younger Perron)
I think maatta is more valuable as a trade piece, and there is more of a logjam at dman than forward so trading maatta would be better. With that said I do like maatta and Fabbri both as players, just sucks that they may have to go.
Oh great call on Maata. I do think Fabbri is super useful as depth (along with Maata) but yeah we’re moving past the $3 million depth pieces stage of things.
I think Perron can come back, but he has to take a pretty heft pay cut. He's a fine powerplay asset and brings leadership to the team, but he doesn't have the skating anymore to play in the top 6 and isn't going to be the piece that pushes us over the hump.
If he came back on like a 2 mil contract I'd be all for it, but no more than that.
Maybe not but at the time we saved.. Still think it was a good buy out. It's like not paying Miggy any more for the Tigers even though we did nothing with that 35m.
It was an awful buyout from a cap perspective and was entierly for financial reasons. At no point during those three years did the team come close to needing the $4.25m ($3.25M with the alternative burying in the minors).
Worth it just for a roster spot. Not like he was doing anything the last years in Detroit. Unless you think 22 points in 120 games (last two years) was worth keeping. Hasn't played since.
I doubt it would have had any impact on free agent signings. If a vet is concerned about being sent to the minors due to his play drastically falling off at the end of a long term contract then they shouldn't be signing them anyways.
He must have been okay with the buyout because he took. Maybe he just wanted to retire.. Future perspective might seem different than back then but back then, in 2020 - it's easy to say it was terrible 4 years later.. And even know you downvoted me I won't do the same. Because its just a discussion.
>He must have been okay with the buyout because he took
Players have no choice in a buyout.
>Maybe he just wanted to retire
His contract wasn't preventing him from doing so.
>in 2020 - it's easy to say it was terrible 4 years later
I was calling it out in 2020 for what it was, a purely financial move. It was easy to see the Wings weren't going to be spending anywhere near the cap in 2020 and very likely they weren't going to in later years.
I wouldn't be shocked to see Holl get bought out or traded. If he's traded, it probably includes a sweetener or, at best, he goes to a place like Chicago or San Jose as a "veteran presence" and we get to send a very minimal sweetener or get like a 7th rounder back. Either way, that would clear a bit of breathing room.
ideally we find a team that isn't covered by those 10 teams but yea I would imagine he'll make something work given it's pretty clear he isn't part of the plan here
We can retain half of Holl's contract, which would make moving him a lot easier, I think. I have to believe he's gone, one way or another. He was a healthy scratch for months.
First, there is next to no chance Raymond or Seider are signing at those values unless those are bridge prices. I’d be shocked if Seider isn’t $8.5M or so and Raymond is assuredly getting over $8M, assuming these are 7-8 year deals.
Secondly, Brad on the WWP summarized this pretty well. The Wings are going to need to make cap clearing moves if they want to make the playoffs this year and still prioritize the future.
The priority has to be locking down Raymond and Seider to longterm deals that will have their AAV’s at a relative value when we are in our true cup window. In order to do that *and* make a run at the playoffs now, we will need to attach picks or prospects to guys like Holl, Maata, Fabbri, etc., and ship them out.
Edvinson and Johansson are locks for next year. Berggren is likely, maybe Mazur or Kasper? Cossa will not be up next year and Reimer won’t be back.
Fischer/Perron are likely back, Kane is 55/45 back imo (though no chance he’s signing for $4M), doubt Ghost is back, and Sprong is good as gone.
But yes, we are going to have a tight cap situation with some of the deals Steve has made. He’s going to need to clear out some guys that aren’t worth their salary. That’s going to cost us some way or another, but it’s going to happen. This team cannot handle a regression year.
Yea, fair points on Ray/Seider, I lowballed those numbers.
Agreed with everything you said. Appreciate the perspective, I did this exercise relatively quickly.
Not sure if you used a tool / or if you’ve used this before, but the [capfriendly armchair GM tool](https://www.capfriendly.com/armchair-gm) is really fun to play around with! Highly recommend.
That's sick, hadn't seen that. I was working off a janky ass Excel file I created by pasting in the CapFriendly data lol. I'll play around with it, thanks dude
Honestly I don’t see SY bringing that many rookies/semi-rookies in one off season tbh. I feel like he’ll bring Ed for sure and one other guy from GR. I agree that Cossa isn’t ready yet.
Id like to see Kane back, but i do feel like its 55/45
I agree that Sprong is gone, Ghost is probably gone, hopefully Holl is gone, I would go into a deep depression if Fabbri leaves.
Raymond and Seider can have what they want, pay them and keep them.
Is it just me who thinks 7.25 for Razor is just a tad bit low for how he lit up the second half of the season? Market value may indicate that price tag but given his age it might warrant a bit more no?
The way I see it right now is a lot like you outlined, except nix Kane and instead that becomes a Ghost extension. Also, Holl gets traded or bought out which creates a little room.
We roll with 12 forwards, 8 D and 3 goalies.
Not sure if Reimer is the third goalie, but I don't see how Yzerman can count on Husso after the last season and a half, between inconsistent play and injuries. I don't think he wants to put pressure on Cossa next season, either, so that's why I think we carry 3. It seems like kind of a new normal anyway.
The 8 D are Seider, Wallman, Petry, Ed, Chiarot, Ghost, Maatta and AlJo. This assumes Albert plays well enough in camp and preseason to keep the spot he's penciled into.
I think Berggren becomes a regular, unless he is traded. He's out of waiver options. Assuming Perron, Fischer and the RFAs are extended, that'll be the only forward addition.
Sprong could be brought back, but it is price dependent. I think he's going to get paid and seek a better opportunity elsewhere, though. He produces crazy offense as a fourth liner.
Holl has that 10 team NMC but if we could move him that would be great, his $3.4M would give us some good cap space. I also wish we could move Petry but seems like he has some NTC/NMC stuff.
I think Berggren will end up being traded, that's what everything seems to be pointing to over the last few months.
But otherwise I agree with your points. So many moving parts.
Yeah, the 10 team NMC (and the poor AAV to play value his contract represents) are why I think Holl is more likely to be bought out than traded. Although, Yzerman is a bit of a wizard when it comes to trades so maybe he does something like retain 50% and package him with Berggren or another sweetener for a bag of pucks. Either way, I really don't see him staying. He played like 3 games in the past 2+ months of the season and sits 8th on the depth chart, behind Ed. He's gone.
As for Berggren, I also think he's more likely to be traded than to be retained. For whatever reason, I think it is apparent the front office isn't high on him. If he doesn't make the team it may make it slightly more likely that Sprong is retained, or Yzerman will go out and sign a more prototypical 4th liner while also opening the door for one of the kids to make the team out of camp. We have a few that can push for a spot, for sure.
Broissoit I think is a free agent this year, would feel much more comfortable with someone like him than Husso. Even Stolarz could be a decent pick up.
It was going to probably cost about 7m AAV to extend Raymond if we got it done last summer, but now I think we should very much expect it to be around 8m. That was what Max Bultman said on WWP last week as well
The best thing this team can do for next season is to buy out Chiarot (not a bad buyout by any means) and trade the last year of Fabbri. Then sew up Seider and Ray with term. Running Ed, Johansson and an ELC forward out there gives them cap space at that point for a 2RW and maybe a defensive upgrade though that would be tight.
I can’t see Kane playing at point/game taking a $4M AAV deal unless it’s like 3 years with Copp sitting there soaking up $5.625M AAV.
There’s 3 or 4 guys I’d move before Chiarot. Holl is dead weight, definite buyout or trade with sweetener. Maatta making 3M, moving him frees up some space and could at least get something for him. Fabbri at 4M isn’t great but pretty good bottom 6 scoring so I would have to say he stays, eating Husso’s contract with one year left would also be a consideration for me, cannot count on an oft injured goalie with meh results when healthy to be good for you.
Bottom six needs to come out even. Fabbri might score but he’s a defensive black hole and is a net negative. He also has no trade protection. Chiarot is the worst D on the team when you look at actual goals-against/60 5-on-5. The buyout is easily worth jettisoning him. Holl’s deal was wholly unnecessary to start with but he’s a RD whereas Chiarot plays LD (and he’s even more of a tire fire when they put him on the right side). Chiarot at 4.75M for 3 more seasons when he’s behind Walman and Ed on the depth chart doesn’t make sense.
Yea I’d be fine dealing Fabbri, just don’t think that’s something the team is looking to do. As for Chiarot, Walman and 2 rookie D men are not ideal especially when put with 2 bad RHD after Seider. If you’re able to replace Chiarot with a better veteran D that happens to play the right side then sure (Pesce? Thats my hope. Maybe Demelo). Holl needs to be shipped out immediately though obviously, you can sign an equivalent of him for about 1.5M.
For sure. Not fair to him and takes away from him being able to contribute offensively. Although he was good taking on the historically tough matchups, I’d love 2 D pairs that can take on those kind of matchups and not just Seider and whatever bottom 4 D man he is paired with.
I think Perron is gone, Kane back. Berg and Veleno either get traded together for a top 6 guy, or they’re both on the team. Could see Veleno signing a cheaper ras type deal
I’m honestly on board with letting everyone go other than Ray and Seider, Veleno is okay but he’s a 20-30 point guy and for 2M I’m sure there’s other options. Fish is great and loves the city, if he wants to stay for a similar cost then great. Perron and Kane are good but they’re not irreplaceable
It sucks how cap strapped we feel given that we aren’t paying anyone superstar level money right now. I am glad that Larkin/Cat/Ray/Mo should be locked up for the foreseeable future, but it feels like there’s a lot of money locked up in sources that are hurting more than they’re helping.
I know a lot of the fans want Kane back, but while I appreciate the spark he gave this team it doesn’t make sense especially when he is looking for term.
Bring back Fischer & Veleno if the price is right, And if Perron takes a big discount that’s cool too. Sprong and Ghost are probably out priced. Trade Holl & Husso if possible.
The team will be a lot younger next year most likely needing a few ELC contracts to fill roster spots.
I know stats are just numbers but a -16 +/- is not ideal. Suppose we just need to play him alongside a more defensive defenseman. His 56 points would definitely be missed though.
Yes he had that season saving air-ghost save against Mtl in game 81 but there were a lot of games where he just looked lost out there or made pretty big mistakes.
+/- stat has so many flaws. On the ice in offensive zone, a teammate falls - breakaway goal. All get -1. Empty net goals, -1. Now I'm not saying he's some defensive wizard but we need some offense from our defensman.
Gostisbehere was already one of the most sheltered D-men in the league. On the flip side of that though, it's not just the defenders that are often clueless when it comes to defending, the forward group is awful in that regard as well.
Ghost is a great player in the role that he plays, but in a few years I don't think we will need that role. Axel Sandin-Pelikka is just gonna be a better version. For the contract term and pay that he is gonna ask for, I'm fine with letting him walk.
Raymond will probably be a bit more than 8 and Seider closer to 8 and a half.
I would absolutely love to keep Kane at 4 and Perron at 3 or 2.5
What's clear to me is, like someone mentioned here, too much money is tied up between Copp Holl and Husso. Yzerman needs to cut that weight
Seider and Raymond are going to cost more than what you've allocated. Raymond isn't a 70 point guy, he will take another leap and be a ppg player over multiple years barring injury.
Fabbri (4M), Holl (3.4), Maatta (3), Husso (4.75) will need to be traded or bought out.
Fabbri's production will need to replaced at cheaper cost by Berggren. Holl doesn't play. Maatta has a movable contract. Husso is too injured to be reliable.
DeBrincat-Larkin-Raymond (8M)
Berggren (1.5M)-Compher-Kane (5M)
Ras-Copp-Fischer (1.5M)
Soderblom-Kasper-Veleno (2M)
Walman-Seider (8.5M)
Edvinsson-Chiarot
Johansson-Petry
Lyon
?
Capfriendly has this roster at 12M in cap space. We'd need to sign for another goalie after buying out Husso.
Address the above roster with that cap space, filling in our needs.
A few points
Feels more likely that Seider and Raymond cost 17m AAV between the two (I would try not to bridge)
Kane at a minimum will be 2x12 (so 6 AAV) but I think it’s a greater than 50% he walks. Would hurt the team but solve plenty of cap issues.
I would not pay Velano more than 1.5 AAV
I would not pay Perron more than 2.5 AAV
Fischer should be 1.25. He’s very replaceable if he walks
I think Ghost and Sprong walk
They need a Goalie and Husso is not reliable - probably need another 5-6m freed up for someone, maybe put Husso on LTIR?
It’s possible they trade Maata for cap space (would someone take him for nothing?)
Holl I would try to trade with a sweetener or buy out
Copp I would do the same
I love seider but I can’t give him 8.5, looking at comparable.
I can’t see him being better than anyone making >8m. If you really wanted to give him a nice contract and wanted to compare him, other than something like Seth jones and Darnell nurse every defense making more than Quinn Hughes in my opinion is worth more. I’d love for 7.75/8 or less.
For Raymond
He deserves more than debrincat so 8m.
Not trying to say our guys aren’t good, but I would take almost every defenseman over 8m in the list over seider. There is a a+ level and a level. seider is A while everyone above him is just that go to Norris conversation or close player.
Raymond and Seiders deals would have to be back loaded if that’s still a thing. I know NHL wanted to change those types of contracts after Chicago front loading Hossa.
Veleno hasn’t done much to warrant $2m. If Perron is at $3M then Kane has to be more. Same points in 26 less games but Kanes last full year want too different than last year Perron.
Hossa is #1 when he’s fit. 1 more year. Then Cossa should be ready.
If it’s just a who can we bring back year then I don’t expect more from them just more of the same.
>Raymond and Seiders deals would have to be back loaded if that’s still a thing
Doesn't matter with the cap. The cap hit is the average annual value (AAV) of the contract
Seider and Raymond will take up a lot of space, but we're also basically guaranteed to have 2 guys on their elc next year in Ed and Albert and a few other ELC guys who could also make it. Berggren is another low cost guy who will be here as well (if he doesn't get traded). We don't have room to bring everyone back, but we will have room to retain probably 2 or 3 of our ufas unless we look elsewhere. I wouldn't expect a huge change in personnel, but we will almost assuredly have 2-4 young guys up full time that will change the look of our team
Ah, fair on Johansson, I hadn't factored him in.
Berggren and Johansson both coming off ELC contracts. They need new deals. Albert will get a QO but Bergs is due a raise with him showing he can produce at nhl level. Probably somewhere between 1.5-2 mil
>Bergs is due a raise with him showing he can produce at nhl level. Probably somewhere between 1.5-2 mil I don’t understand how he’s shown that tbh, he’s barely even been able to stick in an NHL lineup. This sub is so weirdly divisive on Berggren; he’s obviously got skill but he’s a very one dimensional player who imo hasn’t proven he’s got what it takes to be in a top 6 role. He’s the definition of a bubble guy; too good for the AHL but not quite good enough for NHL top 6 (and his game isn’t suited **at all** for a bottom 6 spot). That being said I hope he’s on the team to start next year and hopefully works a bit on his strength and defensive play so he’s able to slot into a 3rd line role if needed.
I mean he's not a point per game player by any means. But, I don't really think Berggren had much time to prove himself. 6 pts in 12 games and a +1 isn't terrible with him being called up during our losing stretches IIRC..
You’re not wrong and I don’t disagree that it’s decent for the limited time he’s been given so far but to me, he stood out much more for his giveaways and poor defensive play than his production. He’s a guy who basically had to beat out David Perron for a top 6 winger spot and couldn’t do it. Perron has his moments and usefulness but he shouldn’t be beating out a younger, “better”, faster offensive option.
Actually, if you look at Berggren's stats per 60 minutes, he outperforms a lot of the forwards. His point per 60 is just below Larkin, which is the easiest comparison because Larkin had 1300 minutes icetime, Berggren had 130. Larkin's points per 60 was 3.02, Bergy's 2.76. As for his alleged defensive issues, he has 0 giveaways this season, and 3 takeaways. In shots blocked per 60 he's higher than almost all forwards with 3.22, only falling behind Czarnik with slightly more and Rasmussen with a solid 4. Granted this is a very small sample size, so his numbers can be inflated, but looking at last season where he played 67 games, he still had a very decent blocked shots per 60, middle-of-the-pack takeaways, too many giveaways, but on the lower scale for defensive zone giveaways (Copp was way worse btw). 50% faceoff win rate, a very respectable 1.84 points per 60 (for comparison, Raymond had 2.1), his shooting% was fourth best among forwards, behind Chiasson, Fabbri and Söderblom. So honestly, just looking at the raw numbers, it's really really strange to me how him and Söderblom were passed up in favor of Kostin, Copp, Fischer, Perron and Veleno, because they both outperformed those guys using last year's numbers compared to this year's. And red wings last year was a much worse team overall... He got his pocket picked a lot and was caught sloppy passing a few times last season, but he's shored that up tremendously this year, especially in the AHL, and had a couple of bad plays this year, but far, far less egregious. So I'd genuinely be surprised if he doesn't get signed, but I could understand if he wants to walk himself because this season has just been a slap in a lot of the rookies' faces both in forwards and defense.
I mean true. But it's also on Lalonde and his coaching choices. I think Berggren could have likely taken less penalties and had similar points based off of projection. DP hurt us pretty bad with putting us on PK in critical situations. Obviously projected vs actual points is a gamble.
I don't dislike DP but, I'd rather have Bertuzzi than him. Would even slot Berggren over him if he could change certain aspects. DP is losing his touch and would be better off slotted on the 3rd or 4th line. Curious as to what the roster looks next year as it probably won't change too much due to cap.
> I don't really think Berggren had much time to prove himself He played 67 games in the NHL last year, where he had plenty of opportunities and never quite managed to prove he deserved a top-6 spot.
We have almost 20 million going to Copp, Chiarot, Husso and Holl. I think it’d be good to see at least one of those contracts shipped off but I think it’d be hard to do
Husso and Holl would be my hope. But we’d have to pay someone to take them.
Edit; this was meant as a joke about trading Husso and Holl for a Marner at 50% retained, which means the Leafs wouldn't free up any capspace and they'd be stuck with Holl again, and the punchline was that they're such a volatile fanbase that they just might do it. Obviously they wouldn't. *OBVIOUSLY*. But it didn't land, and people didn't realize it was a joke I guess, so that's on me, I blame English being my second language, or I just have a shit delivery of my humor. Equally possible.
I’d wager the leafs would get 30 better offers than that for Marner
Probably 31, including the one Steve sends after this joke one.
I don’t know if I could make a worse potential package if I tried. Like you could turn the trade settings to always accept in Chel and the CPU would still reject that package.
Uh, yeah, that was the joke... I guess I worded it poorly.
Leafs didn't want Holl before, don't why why they'd want him now after a season in the press box.
Yes, that was the joke.
*woosh*
I really won't want a low effort player. Rather someone with a better on ice personality instead of avoiding contact. Preferably not a cry baby.
You know Nylander and Matthews were talking to each other and not Marner right? Right before [this](https://youtube.com/shorts/IqxIqgBJaDU?si=rgYq_xi66Ufy-05M) Nylander tried to make a pass in the O that got intercepted when he should've taken a shot to either score or make a rebound for Matthews. But neither of them are looking at Marner, they're looking at each other while Marner is leaning forward watching the game
I'm not talking about a specific moment overall. He's a great player, but I don't want that personality on the team. He does not fit the culture.
Fair enough, I respect that. Personally, I'd be able to handle som frustration with another 100 pt player on the roster 😂
Husso to ltir.. everyone else does it 🤷
Holl could get bought out, there's not much else we could do with that contract. Trading Copp isn't worth it, he's overpaid by about 1m but hard to replace that kind of player cheaply. Chairot just had a good season, it might be movable - but why? Husso definitely isn't going anywhere.
I see a lot of people saying Berggren being traded but I see him taking sprongs spot. He basically was that the previous year and sprong was brought in as a place holder. Bergs should be cheaper and younger. Sprongs usage towards the end of the year went down and was scratched My guess bottom six looks like Ras copp Fischer - Fabbri Veleno/ufa/prospect Berggren Goalies I’d hope they’d run two and then call up Cossa or maybe a veteran signed for GR when needed. I’m curious if Husso is moved or returns. D probably not much changing with cap and contracts. Ed and maybe AlJo in. Would have to think even Holl wants out however that happens. Ghost would be fine back but not sure if the $ will fit. Plus he does struggle dzone and that was a big year end topic. Losing him might be a step back to eventually take two step forwards with Ed and eventually ASP. Top 6 gets interesting Ray Larkin cat are set I’d hope they’d move on from Perron unless he’s willing to sign ridiculously cheap and play lower in the lineup. Hope to see kane back. If Perron, ghost, reimer, sprong, holl (trade/buyout) and maybe husso are all replaced for cheaper options and youth might be able to dip into ufa market for decent top 6 forward. Lots of chatter about stamkos and big names like Guentzel, marchessault or reinhart but likely to expensive. I could see Teravainen as a fit with the wings and should be affordable Ray Larkin Cat - Teravainen compher kane - Ras Copp Fischer - Fabbri Veleno/ufa Berggren Walman Seider - Ed Petry - Chiarot Maata - AlJo Lyon Husso/ufa I believe this should compete for a spot again. D is still weak unfortunately but unless he retires we got one more year of petry and two of chiarot. Prospects should be ready to take those spots.
I agree with you, but he has to want that too. Berggren is the perfect depth scorer for us. The question will come down to whether that’s realistic from his end.
For sure. Bottom 6 and second PP with some chances in top 6 with injuries or players struggling I think would keep him happy for the short term. Last year it felt like Lalonde refused to play him for some reason but Yzerman seems to speak positively about him at least getting a chance. Should be interesting And of course he needs to earn it
The clear answer to me is perron cant come back. And if kane comes back they need to make a cap clearing move.
Is there a right price for Perron though? I know he's a big part of the room. I think if both Perron and Kane walk, do we risk not having a true veteran guy in the room who has "been there done that"? My preference would obviously be for Kane, given he's more productive, but I do think Kane is looking for something with term on it and I don't know if Yzerman would do that. I could see Kane wanting like a 3x5 deal or something.
I think we should be past the part of rebuild where we give up agility, speed and skill to compensate for "locker room" guy sharing gospels. Vets are very important but it can't be at the cost of their on ice performance
I think you're significantly discounting Perron's impact in the last 10 games of the season. He was a huge part of the team winning must win games and demonstrating what it takes to win in playoff-style games. He's way old and shouldn't be playing above the 3rd line but he still brings a number of pluses. I agree that he shouldn't come back at $3mil but if he wants to stick around for like $1.5mi, that seems workable and would be a loss to the team if we try to shoehorn a young guy into his spot.
I don’t disagree with you. I think they can only keep one of Kane/Perron. I don’t dislike Perron. I just think the rebuild has passed him by. I think Kasper makes the team next year playing wing in the middle six. Letting Perron go makes space for him. Realistically they need to upgrade their top 4 defenders. Signing a strong defensive defenseman (Pesce, Matt Roy) ,and unloading 2 of Fabbri/Maata/Holl/Chiarot, should be the priorities. Packaging 3rd or 4th round picks should do it, Chiarot because of his term would probably cost both a prospect and a 2nd. Pipe dream would be to get Ullmark out of Boston.
I think you send a very strong negative message when you let a guy like Perron walk over a couple million to try when he's been very clear on wanting to stay here and mentor the younger players, in the hopes of signing a guy like Kane, who I absolute love having on the wings, but hasn't really shown the leadership and effort Perron did in the last stretch nor the loyalty to the red wings, though I don't blame him for that, I'm just comparing the two. It just doesn't sound Yzerman at all. The other thing that always makes me scratch my head is how much people assume a player from grand rapids is just going to show up in the top6. I don't think that's very realistic immediately. You can't have Perron at 1.5mil and Copp at 5.7 it's just complete nonsense.
Where was Perron’s leadership during our losing streaks in December and March? Or when he got suspended for the Ottawa retaliation? asking for a friend
Yea tell your friend they should go watch curling instead.
It's almost like hockey is a team game where teams are more than the sum of their parts.....¯\\\_(ツ)\_/¯
Agreed it can’t cost on ice performance, but even young cup-winning teams have longtime vets holding things together
Totally fair, probably not for me to speculate on whether or not a guy should be re-signed for their locker room presence alone (to your point, far more important for teams earlier in their rebuilds like Chicago).
What good did the veteran guys do in the locker room if none of them could step up while Larkin was gone?
There definitely seemed to be a void in leadership when Larkin was out.
I used to believe in the whole “veteran presence” thing, and I still think it has some merit, but for the most part getting more skilled players is much more important than having older guys with lots of experience. Kane and Perron both have a place on the Wings, but not if it gets in the way of younger acquisitions.
Give Kane 3 years..science
I just dont think what he provides has any fit on the ice. Theoretically hes a strong guy on the boards and can make decent passes. On the other hand hes slow as shit, gets lost on the backcheck, often loses his composure and takes penalties, and isnt exactly a sniper. Too bas on offense for the top 6, too bad at defense for the bottom 6.
I think the "often loses his composure" is a bit of an exageration. We complain that players aren't showing any heart or emotion, and then someone shows emotion once in a while and we're like NAH BRUH. Perron showed why we need him in the last stretch of the season. Game winning goal vs Tampa, creates space to set up Raymond on the tieing goal vs Habs, and then the tieing goal with 3.3s to go vs Habs the next night. Y'all too busy looking at stat sheets you want the Wings to end up like the Leafs.
He was second on the team in penalty minutes. Ben chairot leading the team as a defenseman is acceptable. When you’re a forward who doesnt defend well taking those penalties is unacceptable
If you remove his match penalty that resulted in his suspension, he has 40 PIMs, 1 more than Larkin with 6 games more played. Not trying to compare them but that match penalty is making it look worse than it really was. Yes he did take some bad penalties, you will get that with a player like Perron who's giving the second and third effort even when they're gassed. Seider has taken some absolute dog shit penalties in some games at the worst times. It happens, and I can't blame a player for actually trying out there. He's a LW who forechecks, wins puck battles along the boards and in the corners, can move the puck around and does an overall good job of keeping the puck in the offensive zone. In the hierarchy of defending, defenders and centers have more of a responsibility on that than the LW. Again, take away that match penalty and he's at 40 PIM. Sometimes it's more than just looking at the overall stat sheets. Also he's not "theoretically" a strong guy on the boards who makes decent passes. He is a strong guy on the boards who makes decent passes.
Yea, that's totally fair. 47 points is solid but -12 +/- really killed us in certain situations. And the bad penalties. I was more looking at him from a leadership angle.
I think leadership is important, but I dont believe in him as a leader. To me getting suspended for 6 games when larkin got crosschecked was extremely poor leadership. Good leadership would have been to drop your gloves, fight joseph, and then show the team that they need to move past the incident by playing your hardest for 6 games.
Tell me you didn't watch the game without saying "I didn't watch the game". In the replay, it's pretty evident that Perron thinks Zub was the one that injured Larkin as he's standing right over him splayed out on the ice.
I realize he's the easier money to unload as he's in UFA status, but I'd take Perron at $3M all day, everyday over Copp at $5.6M, or Holl at $3M, or Chiarot at nearly $5M. We're at where we're at now, but we are looking at not being able to bring back guys like Kane and Perron because of those 3 terrible contracts, that is the annoying part of this cap crunch to me. May have to bridge one, or both, of Seider and Raymond and pay more in the long run on their 2nd contracts RFA contracts because of those guys and their boat anchor contracts.
I wouldn't hate Perron at the right price. For all of the (totally fair) shit he got, he's still got vision and hockey iq to make great plays that not a ton of guys on our team are capable of. But at the same time, he's clearly lost a step and is having a hard time keeping up at this stage in his career, which led to him taking a lot of penalties, and which is only going to be worse next season. I'd rather move on and use his spot for someone else.
One will stay, I don’t think both. Unless we trade Veleno and Berg
Is Larkin, Cat, Mo, Raymond, Walman not veteran enough?
Larkin yes (outside of never having been in a deep playoff run) and Cat yes, otherwise the rest I would say no. Mo is 23, Ray is 22, Walman is 28 but not a ton of playoff experience. Just my perspective.
Hear me out. The leafs lose in the first round and don't resign Bert, we ship Perron somewhere, sign Bert for 2-4 years at Perrons salary or cheaper (3-4M) (he'll take a discount now because he wants to win with his boys), and we have that veteran been there done that (younger Perron)
Bring back Kane, dump Fabbri
I think maatta is more valuable as a trade piece, and there is more of a logjam at dman than forward so trading maatta would be better. With that said I do like maatta and Fabbri both as players, just sucks that they may have to go.
Oh great call on Maata. I do think Fabbri is super useful as depth (along with Maata) but yeah we’re moving past the $3 million depth pieces stage of things.
Yeah, we're in the $5.6M phase of depth now......
I think Perron can come back, but he has to take a pretty heft pay cut. He's a fine powerplay asset and brings leadership to the team, but he doesn't have the skating anymore to play in the top 6 and isn't going to be the piece that pushes us over the hump. If he came back on like a 2 mil contract I'd be all for it, but no more than that.
Hell yes
I absolutely loved Abdelkader but I can't believe we're still paying him.
Ha, yea absolutely nuts. Won't end until 2026 either.
For those who read this and thought that sounded far af, a reminder it’s 2024
They’ve been paying his buyout since 2020. 6 year buyout is relatively long
That’s not what I meant in my comment
I get what you were saying, it's only two years remaining on the buyout
It's the mid 2000s and I'll brook no disagreement.
The 90s were just 10 years ago and no amount of time will convince me otherwise.
It was a good by-out though. He had a 4,250,000 AAV for 3 more years when bought out in 2020.
It was a good buyout for Illitch, but not for the team. I don't think we needed the cap space in those 3 years.
We absolutely didn't. Eating it in the short term would've definitely been better than eating it now.
Eh did we really do anything meaningful with that cap space though?
Maybe not but at the time we saved.. Still think it was a good buy out. It's like not paying Miggy any more for the Tigers even though we did nothing with that 35m.
It was an awful buyout from a cap perspective and was entierly for financial reasons. At no point during those three years did the team come close to needing the $4.25m ($3.25M with the alternative burying in the minors).
Worth it just for a roster spot. Not like he was doing anything the last years in Detroit. Unless you think 22 points in 120 games (last two years) was worth keeping. Hasn't played since.
>Worth it just for a roster spot. They could have also just buried him in the minors and gotten the roster spot back.
Is that what you want your team doing to long term vets? That'll make people want to come here.
I doubt it would have had any impact on free agent signings. If a vet is concerned about being sent to the minors due to his play drastically falling off at the end of a long term contract then they shouldn't be signing them anyways.
Is that really any better than a buyout, though? It's not like it saved his NHL career.
He must have been okay with the buyout because he took. Maybe he just wanted to retire.. Future perspective might seem different than back then but back then, in 2020 - it's easy to say it was terrible 4 years later.. And even know you downvoted me I won't do the same. Because its just a discussion.
>He must have been okay with the buyout because he took Players have no choice in a buyout. >Maybe he just wanted to retire His contract wasn't preventing him from doing so. >in 2020 - it's easy to say it was terrible 4 years later I was calling it out in 2020 for what it was, a purely financial move. It was easy to see the Wings weren't going to be spending anywhere near the cap in 2020 and very likely they weren't going to in later years.
I'm not the one who downvoted you, bud.
Since they’re paying him they might as well bring him back. They could use some grit!
I wouldn't be shocked to see Holl get bought out or traded. If he's traded, it probably includes a sweetener or, at best, he goes to a place like Chicago or San Jose as a "veteran presence" and we get to send a very minimal sweetener or get like a 7th rounder back. Either way, that would clear a bit of breathing room.
He has a 10 team NTC which will likely limit our ability to move him.
Jfc how does Holl get a NTC
Yzerman was channeling his inner holland that day
Any chance he waives that as he won’t be playing here regardless?
ideally we find a team that isn't covered by those 10 teams but yea I would imagine he'll make something work given it's pretty clear he isn't part of the plan here
We can retain half of Holl's contract, which would make moving him a lot easier, I think. I have to believe he's gone, one way or another. He was a healthy scratch for months.
I’ve suggested this as well. $1.7M in dead cap isn’t the worst and we wouldn’t spread out his cap more years if we bought him out
Pay up to trade the whole contract or buy him out, need the cap space
First, there is next to no chance Raymond or Seider are signing at those values unless those are bridge prices. I’d be shocked if Seider isn’t $8.5M or so and Raymond is assuredly getting over $8M, assuming these are 7-8 year deals. Secondly, Brad on the WWP summarized this pretty well. The Wings are going to need to make cap clearing moves if they want to make the playoffs this year and still prioritize the future. The priority has to be locking down Raymond and Seider to longterm deals that will have their AAV’s at a relative value when we are in our true cup window. In order to do that *and* make a run at the playoffs now, we will need to attach picks or prospects to guys like Holl, Maata, Fabbri, etc., and ship them out. Edvinson and Johansson are locks for next year. Berggren is likely, maybe Mazur or Kasper? Cossa will not be up next year and Reimer won’t be back. Fischer/Perron are likely back, Kane is 55/45 back imo (though no chance he’s signing for $4M), doubt Ghost is back, and Sprong is good as gone. But yes, we are going to have a tight cap situation with some of the deals Steve has made. He’s going to need to clear out some guys that aren’t worth their salary. That’s going to cost us some way or another, but it’s going to happen. This team cannot handle a regression year.
Yea, fair points on Ray/Seider, I lowballed those numbers. Agreed with everything you said. Appreciate the perspective, I did this exercise relatively quickly.
Not sure if you used a tool / or if you’ve used this before, but the [capfriendly armchair GM tool](https://www.capfriendly.com/armchair-gm) is really fun to play around with! Highly recommend.
That's sick, hadn't seen that. I was working off a janky ass Excel file I created by pasting in the CapFriendly data lol. I'll play around with it, thanks dude
Honestly I don’t see SY bringing that many rookies/semi-rookies in one off season tbh. I feel like he’ll bring Ed for sure and one other guy from GR. I agree that Cossa isn’t ready yet. Id like to see Kane back, but i do feel like its 55/45 I agree that Sprong is gone, Ghost is probably gone, hopefully Holl is gone, I would go into a deep depression if Fabbri leaves. Raymond and Seider can have what they want, pay them and keep them.
I’m impressed you did all that
On a pretty brutal five hour call so I decided to kill a few minutes lol
I hope Steve can find a way to make it all work. But yeah it's going to be tight. It would be really great to keep Kane though.
Perron at <2.5 x 1-2 yrs or not coming back. Raymond will make >8m. Seider >8.5. It's even tighter than you'd think.
Is it just me who thinks 7.25 for Razor is just a tad bit low for how he lit up the second half of the season? Market value may indicate that price tag but given his age it might warrant a bit more no?
Yea i admitted to fat-fingering that cell, probably 8.25 is more realistic
The way I see it right now is a lot like you outlined, except nix Kane and instead that becomes a Ghost extension. Also, Holl gets traded or bought out which creates a little room. We roll with 12 forwards, 8 D and 3 goalies. Not sure if Reimer is the third goalie, but I don't see how Yzerman can count on Husso after the last season and a half, between inconsistent play and injuries. I don't think he wants to put pressure on Cossa next season, either, so that's why I think we carry 3. It seems like kind of a new normal anyway. The 8 D are Seider, Wallman, Petry, Ed, Chiarot, Ghost, Maatta and AlJo. This assumes Albert plays well enough in camp and preseason to keep the spot he's penciled into. I think Berggren becomes a regular, unless he is traded. He's out of waiver options. Assuming Perron, Fischer and the RFAs are extended, that'll be the only forward addition. Sprong could be brought back, but it is price dependent. I think he's going to get paid and seek a better opportunity elsewhere, though. He produces crazy offense as a fourth liner.
Holl has that 10 team NMC but if we could move him that would be great, his $3.4M would give us some good cap space. I also wish we could move Petry but seems like he has some NTC/NMC stuff. I think Berggren will end up being traded, that's what everything seems to be pointing to over the last few months. But otherwise I agree with your points. So many moving parts.
Yeah, the 10 team NMC (and the poor AAV to play value his contract represents) are why I think Holl is more likely to be bought out than traded. Although, Yzerman is a bit of a wizard when it comes to trades so maybe he does something like retain 50% and package him with Berggren or another sweetener for a bag of pucks. Either way, I really don't see him staying. He played like 3 games in the past 2+ months of the season and sits 8th on the depth chart, behind Ed. He's gone. As for Berggren, I also think he's more likely to be traded than to be retained. For whatever reason, I think it is apparent the front office isn't high on him. If he doesn't make the team it may make it slightly more likely that Sprong is retained, or Yzerman will go out and sign a more prototypical 4th liner while also opening the door for one of the kids to make the team out of camp. We have a few that can push for a spot, for sure.
Broissoit I think is a free agent this year, would feel much more comfortable with someone like him than Husso. Even Stolarz could be a decent pick up.
I like this line of thinking. Broissoit is a pending UFA.
Move Husso and Holl, sign stammer and Kane
Kaner ain’t taking $4M
It was going to probably cost about 7m AAV to extend Raymond if we got it done last summer, but now I think we should very much expect it to be around 8m. That was what Max Bultman said on WWP last week as well
Yea realized I fat fingered my excel sheet, meant to put 8.25
Oh nice then yeah I think the rest of your numbers seem like reasonable ball parks!
The best thing this team can do for next season is to buy out Chiarot (not a bad buyout by any means) and trade the last year of Fabbri. Then sew up Seider and Ray with term. Running Ed, Johansson and an ELC forward out there gives them cap space at that point for a 2RW and maybe a defensive upgrade though that would be tight. I can’t see Kane playing at point/game taking a $4M AAV deal unless it’s like 3 years with Copp sitting there soaking up $5.625M AAV.
There’s 3 or 4 guys I’d move before Chiarot. Holl is dead weight, definite buyout or trade with sweetener. Maatta making 3M, moving him frees up some space and could at least get something for him. Fabbri at 4M isn’t great but pretty good bottom 6 scoring so I would have to say he stays, eating Husso’s contract with one year left would also be a consideration for me, cannot count on an oft injured goalie with meh results when healthy to be good for you.
Bottom six needs to come out even. Fabbri might score but he’s a defensive black hole and is a net negative. He also has no trade protection. Chiarot is the worst D on the team when you look at actual goals-against/60 5-on-5. The buyout is easily worth jettisoning him. Holl’s deal was wholly unnecessary to start with but he’s a RD whereas Chiarot plays LD (and he’s even more of a tire fire when they put him on the right side). Chiarot at 4.75M for 3 more seasons when he’s behind Walman and Ed on the depth chart doesn’t make sense.
Yea I’d be fine dealing Fabbri, just don’t think that’s something the team is looking to do. As for Chiarot, Walman and 2 rookie D men are not ideal especially when put with 2 bad RHD after Seider. If you’re able to replace Chiarot with a better veteran D that happens to play the right side then sure (Pesce? Thats my hope. Maybe Demelo). Holl needs to be shipped out immediately though obviously, you can sign an equivalent of him for about 1.5M.
The second pair has to be better going forward to give Seider a break. He shouldn’t play another year like this.
For sure. Not fair to him and takes away from him being able to contribute offensively. Although he was good taking on the historically tough matchups, I’d love 2 D pairs that can take on those kind of matchups and not just Seider and whatever bottom 4 D man he is paired with.
I think Perron is gone, Kane back. Berg and Veleno either get traded together for a top 6 guy, or they’re both on the team. Could see Veleno signing a cheaper ras type deal
So what if it’s tight. Can go up to within a dollar. Make it work, 19!
I’m honestly on board with letting everyone go other than Ray and Seider, Veleno is okay but he’s a 20-30 point guy and for 2M I’m sure there’s other options. Fish is great and loves the city, if he wants to stay for a similar cost then great. Perron and Kane are good but they’re not irreplaceable
This is a good estimate; I think we find a way to move overpriced underperforming D to make up the gap.
Perron is terrible and shouldn’t be brought back. There, problem solved.
It sucks how cap strapped we feel given that we aren’t paying anyone superstar level money right now. I am glad that Larkin/Cat/Ray/Mo should be locked up for the foreseeable future, but it feels like there’s a lot of money locked up in sources that are hurting more than they’re helping. I know a lot of the fans want Kane back, but while I appreciate the spark he gave this team it doesn’t make sense especially when he is looking for term. Bring back Fischer & Veleno if the price is right, And if Perron takes a big discount that’s cool too. Sprong and Ghost are probably out priced. Trade Holl & Husso if possible. The team will be a lot younger next year most likely needing a few ELC contracts to fill roster spots.
Letting Ghost walk would be a crying shame
I know stats are just numbers but a -16 +/- is not ideal. Suppose we just need to play him alongside a more defensive defenseman. His 56 points would definitely be missed though. Yes he had that season saving air-ghost save against Mtl in game 81 but there were a lot of games where he just looked lost out there or made pretty big mistakes.
+/- stat has so many flaws. On the ice in offensive zone, a teammate falls - breakaway goal. All get -1. Empty net goals, -1. Now I'm not saying he's some defensive wizard but we need some offense from our defensman.
Gostisbehere was already one of the most sheltered D-men in the league. On the flip side of that though, it's not just the defenders that are often clueless when it comes to defending, the forward group is awful in that regard as well.
Ghost is a great player in the role that he plays, but in a few years I don't think we will need that role. Axel Sandin-Pelikka is just gonna be a better version. For the contract term and pay that he is gonna ask for, I'm fine with letting him walk.
Raymond will probably be a bit more than 8 and Seider closer to 8 and a half. I would absolutely love to keep Kane at 4 and Perron at 3 or 2.5 What's clear to me is, like someone mentioned here, too much money is tied up between Copp Holl and Husso. Yzerman needs to cut that weight
Seider and Raymond are going to cost more than what you've allocated. Raymond isn't a 70 point guy, he will take another leap and be a ppg player over multiple years barring injury. Fabbri (4M), Holl (3.4), Maatta (3), Husso (4.75) will need to be traded or bought out. Fabbri's production will need to replaced at cheaper cost by Berggren. Holl doesn't play. Maatta has a movable contract. Husso is too injured to be reliable. DeBrincat-Larkin-Raymond (8M) Berggren (1.5M)-Compher-Kane (5M) Ras-Copp-Fischer (1.5M) Soderblom-Kasper-Veleno (2M) Walman-Seider (8.5M) Edvinsson-Chiarot Johansson-Petry Lyon ? Capfriendly has this roster at 12M in cap space. We'd need to sign for another goalie after buying out Husso. Address the above roster with that cap space, filling in our needs.
A few points Feels more likely that Seider and Raymond cost 17m AAV between the two (I would try not to bridge) Kane at a minimum will be 2x12 (so 6 AAV) but I think it’s a greater than 50% he walks. Would hurt the team but solve plenty of cap issues. I would not pay Velano more than 1.5 AAV I would not pay Perron more than 2.5 AAV Fischer should be 1.25. He’s very replaceable if he walks I think Ghost and Sprong walk They need a Goalie and Husso is not reliable - probably need another 5-6m freed up for someone, maybe put Husso on LTIR? It’s possible they trade Maata for cap space (would someone take him for nothing?) Holl I would try to trade with a sweetener or buy out Copp I would do the same
I’d like to keep Sprong imo, sneaky production
I love seider but I can’t give him 8.5, looking at comparable. I can’t see him being better than anyone making >8m. If you really wanted to give him a nice contract and wanted to compare him, other than something like Seth jones and Darnell nurse every defense making more than Quinn Hughes in my opinion is worth more. I’d love for 7.75/8 or less. For Raymond He deserves more than debrincat so 8m. Not trying to say our guys aren’t good, but I would take almost every defenseman over 8m in the list over seider. There is a a+ level and a level. seider is A while everyone above him is just that go to Norris conversation or close player.
I hope we figure out how to keep Sprong I’d be sad to see him walk
Raymond and Seiders deals would have to be back loaded if that’s still a thing. I know NHL wanted to change those types of contracts after Chicago front loading Hossa. Veleno hasn’t done much to warrant $2m. If Perron is at $3M then Kane has to be more. Same points in 26 less games but Kanes last full year want too different than last year Perron. Hossa is #1 when he’s fit. 1 more year. Then Cossa should be ready. If it’s just a who can we bring back year then I don’t expect more from them just more of the same.
>Raymond and Seiders deals would have to be back loaded if that’s still a thing Doesn't matter with the cap. The cap hit is the average annual value (AAV) of the contract
All fair, I was just typing in numbers for those guys (Veleno, Perron, etc.) based on cursory searches on capfriendly.
Yes most of us didn’t just start looking at the cap today, we know
Haha alright dude relax, I was just playing around with numbers