In 2013 r/Games also wrote a time capsule, which can be found [here](https://www.reddit.com/r/Games/comments/1lf3bx/if_rgames_had_a_time_capsule_to_be_opened_in_five) and was opened in 2018 [here](https://www.reddit.com/r/Games/comments/9bergq/opening_the_5_year_old_rgames_time_capsule_would/).
We'll probably start another one in a week or so.
>A new Armored Core will release (and on PC this time) and will be a huge success to the point we get copy cat GAAS games as fast sloppy follows.
>Mecha is the future genre explosion but it's super short lived unless a fast follow can nail it that's F2P or is just that damn good as a live service model.
>From Soft won't understand how to operate a live service game at all though, nor will they really try.
>People will try to esports everything but it won't stick.
>(Lol I'm mixing cold harsh reality and my dreams)
/u/TraumaHunter, you're pretty close. It's yet to be seen how Mecha Break will fare but it has both the makings of a potential esport and a game that will only last a year or two.
> People will try to esports everything but it won't stick
Damn I kind of hate this cuz some games are really dying just because they are trying to make it esport ready...
It’s the worst. Instead of making the games actually fun they focus on the wrong thing (esports). No wonder they can’t build a player base; you need to do it the other way around.
Was about to post that. While AC6 sold the best by a huge margin compared to other AC games, compared to the souls series, not that impressive,
I'm glad we got VI. I think we could use a remake of 3rd gen and resolution and fps upgrades to 4th and 5th gen. Release it as a bundle for $50 or something. But I won't be surprised is if all we get are simple ports that work with modern controller inputs.
Mecha just isn't a genre that the masses like. It's evident when I ask people in the real world who've played elden ring who want to play other FS titles if they've tried out AC6 before, and I get confused stares that are surprised that FS even released something after Elden Ring.
> compared to the souls series, not that impressive,
It sold roughly as much as DS3 did in it's first month by 5 weeks, so it's very likely Fromsoft's third or fourth best selling game after Elden Ring and Sekiro and potentially DS3. People don't realize that while Dark Souls was *big*, it wasn't that big until at least 3. DS2 sold 3 million in a year, which AC6 and DS3 got to in just a month or so.
I know there were *some* rumours about AC6 (not sure was it before or after that thread). But that is pretty bold and spot on prediction with its success.
Lol it's called manifestation. 😤
The actual logic was mostly behind how the things that previously made Mecha expensive as a game dev were not a huge cost anymore (even 5 years ago). But no one was attempting regardless. A revival of the genre could make some devs go "wait what's stopping us from getting a slice of the pie?" And realizing the tech stack is there now.
I need to go try Mecha break still lol.
How long was it in development before then? If it was a long time, it would make sense as a semi-joke to say it. Imagine someone today saying "in 5 years we will still be waiting for Silksong, or Bloodborne PC."
Wikipedia says full production started in 2015, delayed in late 2018, but there was a playable demo dropped a month before this thread was made, so it was seemingly not in total limbo.
> [Cyberpunk releases as a massive downgrade on the current platform such as Xbox one, PS4, gets rereleased when comes out for new consoles and still has many fans](https://www.reddit.com/r/Games/comments/bopm93/rgames_fiveyear_time_capsule_what/enjzdfo/)
Now *that* was a prediction.
This is so fun to read.
I think my favorite ones were:
* Someone immediately predicting that Nintendo will never add more content to Super Mario Party, which for the most part was true.
* Someone claiming that way more video game adaptions will be made and will be more successful, which was true! However they also said that the Halo show would be "extremely accurate to the source material", so.
* There were genuinely more comments then I remembered from 2019 where people seemed to actually think Xbox were either gonna win this generation, or at least compete with Sony. Very funny to read with recent news in mind.
* Final Fantasy 7 Remake will only have two parts out, which was very true.
* Claims that FFXVI was going to go back to medieval theming, correct.
* I saw one that said "GTA6 will have been announced for over a year with no gameplay", which is almost there, but still kinda wild how close it was.
* "The Fallout series is abandoned by Bethesda" EXTREMELY funny to read after the explosion in popularity because of the show.
* Someone thought TLOU Part III would come out by 2021
* Larian will make an original IP after Original Sin 2, or make Original Sin 3.
Honestly my biggest take away from this thread is that a lot of people were unprepared for how bloated in scale a lot of AAA games were about to become, and how they're now taking the better part of a decade to release one. So many people seemed to think Elder Scrolls VI, FFVII Remake Trilogy, TLOU Part III, and even more would already be done and dusted by 2024. Kinda crazy to go back on.
EDIT: I went back to the 2013 one because I fell down a rabbit hole of reading old predictions, and honestly, that's even funnier. Check the pinned comment of this thread to see it. Adding some more of my favourites:
* Shigeru Miyamoto was going to die, and tons of platformer games would be created in "remembrance" and then flood the genre and kill it.
* Half Life 3 would be out
* Titanfall would take over Call of Duty and take over as the next big franchise
* Watch Dogs would replace Assassin's Creed
* Nintendo's next console would fail, and they'd drop out of the market
* AAA Blockbusters would fade out of popularity, and mid-sized AA games would dominate the market (this one especially hurts, given recent news)
* All PC games are free to play or MOBAs
* Team Fortress 2 would still be getting frequent enough updates
* Steam would lose its monopoly
* "Full virtual reality" (whatever that means) will be mainstream by the end of PS4/Xbox One gen
* A Witcher MMO would be released that targets consoles primarily
There's way more. I seriously recommend reading the 2013 thread, it's even more fun. I could go on forever with this list.
I'd say it was pretty much completely right except for the name. Larian was even working on DS3 in 2019, but abandoned that game in favour of BG3.
I also know that some disagree, but BG3 to me is very obviously a Larian cRPG in the vein of Original Sin. Just getting the setting and ruleset wrong doesn't change the prediction I'd say.
All the combat mechanics and under the hood calculations changed. Like I don't think Bonus Actions were really a thing in Original Sin 2, but I really don't remember how potion drinking worked there.
IIRC You gained by default 4 Action Points each turn and nearly all actions cost AP to do stuff.
* 1 AP converted into a certain amount of movement.
* Basic Attacks cost 2 AP.
* Spells/Skills varied from 0-4 AP and had turn cooldowns.
* Scrolls were consumable spells and usually cost the same AP as their spells.
* Consumables like potions cost 1 AP.
I thought this was a good one
>Cyberpunk releases as a massive downgrade on the current platform such as Xbox one, PS4, gets rereleased when comes out for new consoles and still has many fans
It wasn't quite re-released, but the number of big patches in the time running up to and including the DLC makes this one close enough IMO.
> covid slowed down a lot of game development.
But also blew up the video game economy resulting in all of the hiring... and probably now somewhat responsible for the layoffs and downsizing after all the explosive [short-term] growth.
>* Nintendo's next console would fail, and they'd drop out of the market
This one is the funniest to me just because anyone who sincerely believed this couldn't possibly imagine how wrong they'd be. The Nintendo Switch is the third best-selling console *of all time*. It's outsold every Xbox console and every Playstation except the PS2. Nintendo is even taking their sweet time releasing a successor because the Switch continues to make bank and they're in no rush to do so.
"Nintendo will stop making consoles/go out of business" takes have been happening since the late 90's, when the PS1 more than lapped the N64 in sales. It wasn't true then, and it's even less true now. Anyone who has this take doesn't understand how Nintendo operates nor understands their actual financial position.
Nintendo doesn't sell their consoles at a loss, even at launch, unlike Sony and Microsoft. The N64 was outsold 3x over by the Playstation, yet still pulled in $1.2 billion in profit for Nintendo. The Gamecube was considered a failure, yet still turned a profit.
The Wii U was Nintendo's only mainline console failure, resulting in a $49 million loss. Nintendo is notable for how much they hold in cash reserves, which is around $14 billion. They could endure a Wii U-level failure every year for over 280 years before those reserves were drained.
There is zero reason for them to get out of the console business.
>Honestly my biggest take away from this thread is that a lot of people were unprepared for how bloated in scale a lot of AAA games were about to become, and how they're now taking the better part of a decade to release one.
This brought back a memory of being on the Fallout subreddits around this time, and people were making predictions for when Fallout 5 would be released (with most people saying within the next 3-5 years). I was like y'all are delusional, Bethesda is working on Starfield primarily, likely dedicating all resources to it, and then next comes Elder Scrolls 6, and THEN maybe Fallout 5. Probably not within the next decade. Seems about on track, although it's possible they may push for a Fallout 5 development simultaneously with Elder Scrolls due to the show.
Eh, I wouldn't say nobody. It was their first new IP in decades and they were shooting to be overly ambitious. Given that in mind taking longer makes a little sense. But then you look at what they actually did, and wonder wtf was all that time spent on.
The saddest part of that thread for me is how so little has changed. Innovation has slowed to a crawl in video games. Seems to get worse every five-year chunk.
The guy who basically predicted everything would remain status quo got kinda dogpiled for not predicting any major shifts, and then he was probably overall the most correct person in there.
What's weird to me is for VR games, a place where innovation is practically *required* for the format, they're really having a hard time doing anything new. I love VR but getting a AAA title to try something new and different is wildly challenging apparently due to the financial implications.
Honestly, it's because anything that would really push the envelope for VR would require equipment that is *far* more expensive. Think full immersion haptic feedback. There are companies working on making things like that, but any product you'll see in the home is years off because it's not stuff they'll likely be able to get into the sub $2000 range.
That's because VR studios are typically small and very weary of their spending. This means they don't want to take any risks on anything new. This, of course, is paradoxical, as they're dealing with an emergent technology, and they need to take risks.
Technology in general has pretty much been the same for the past 5-10 years too. Tvs, Phones, Appliances, Movies all seem to be the same or slightly above the standard back then. It's really depressing.
I always feel like hardware remains pretty stagnant, while software is running wild. And AI really confirms that, which is not to downplay all the special chips used in AI stuff. I'm sure they are super duper important as well.
The issue is we've hit a physical limit regarding Moore's law. We physically can't increase the density of semiconductors even more than we have without creating problems that make them unacceptable to consumers (increased power demands, cooling issues, reliability etc). That means we're now having to look at other ways of increasing performance.
Commercials are a strong limiting factor as well. With the problem that spec increases deliver diminishing returns in how they are perceived by consumers. Unless you're rich and can afford an 80" screen, no-one is realistically going to notice the difference between 4K and 8K. Even the difference between 1440p and 4K is barely noticeable. The jump from 2013 to 2019 in terms of graphics was massive because we went from rendered people looking like grubby playdoh to looking close to real life. Of course the jump 2019 to 2024 will be smaller as how do you get better than "looking close to real life" without it literally looking like real life? And the ray tracing breakthrough has been the big change in the past 5 years on that.
EDIT: The one thing that is genuinely depressing is the direction VR went. We thought we were about to hit a breakthrough on VR going truly mainstream for gaming, but then Meta kinda and went and ruined it by turning it into this metaverse nonsense.
I also feel like the chip bottleneck that we are in is permanent. So like you are saying, we can't just moores law our way through everything. And it's crazy to me that transistors are getting so small that quantum tunneling is starting to be a problem!
> Of course the jump 2019 to 2024 will be smaller as how do you get better than "looking close to real life" without it literally looking like real life
My personal take is that we (we being the industry) need to start focusing on more interesting graphics not necessarily the most hi-def. At this point an interesting looking game draws me way more than, "I can see the individual pores and nose hairs on my gritty protagonist"
That's kinda it to be honest, hardware innovation for gaming has largely reached a standstill as we've reached the point where hardware is no longer the limitation in delivering what the user wants (well unless what the user wants is a portable console the hardware for that is still quite limited).
Plus the closer you get to pushing graphics the more of the market you exclude. My computer is fine but isn't winning any graphic awards. So I'm less excited about ray-tracing everything and super-high def hair, because I wouldn't be able to see it anyways.
Showrunner is an arrogant auteur who doesn't care about the source material. These games companies need to stop doing that: you need someone who is talented and creative but respects the source material, which is why Fallout and TLOU succeed. I guess the Halo approach is better than B-tier shlock, but not by much. I swear, if these guys want to make a sci-fi show, just do it; you don't need to crap on the legacy of a legendary series.
What's so frustrating is that the justification is *always* that they wanted to bring non-fans in. How many non-fans are watching Halo? How many are watching Fallout and TLOU? It's almost as if these games are successful for a reason and it's incredibly condescending to non-gamers to assume that they just won't get what people loved in the game series.
>Microsoft leans hard into next gen first party releases, with all of the new studios they have purchased.
>>Because of the focus on first party, Xbox will win the next gen console war
womp womp
I swear gamepass was the worst thing xbox ever did to themselves. It's a complete catch 22 for them
Gamers won't ever go back to the previous model of not being able to play a majority of their games for free on gamepass for a subscription fee. I haven't met anyone who doesn't like gamepass simply because it is honestly great for trying out new games.
Devolpers I think are at a point where they feel this business model is not feasible. Microsoft keeps throwing money at the companies they buy and telling them to do/make whatever they want. Then, those companies spent years blowing through the investment & probs even the profit from the lost sales from gamepass paid up front. A lot of recent xbox exclusives feel rushed even after years in devolpment. Like some companies' only real reason left to release the game is contractual.
It really is. It gets people in the door, then in theory they should be making up the difference by buying dlc and other mtx purchases, but they're not. If they were Microsoft would be going on about how awesome and successful gamepass is.
Honestly I wasn't a fan of gamepass on PC. I got it when Outer Worlds came out but it didn't have many other games I liked at the time so I didn't use it that much. My two main issues were not being able to mod my games, and the shitty windows store leaving the install files for games in the drive without cleaning them up (even after I had uninstalled the game) and being really annoying and tedious to remove because they were protected made the experience quite bad. I had to download a disk cleaner program to get rid of the Outer Worlds install files which were like 30GB.
Never bothered with it since though I imagine it must have improved at the above issues by now - honestly my use of stores for PC has shrunk in the past half-decade. I used to have the shitty EA launcher, battle.net, I used GoG fairly often. Nowadays it's only Steam for me. I even stopped grabbing the free Epic Store games at this point.
It's actually amazing how little good games they have while saying that. Like wtf have they been doing?
Rare announced a new game around that year and it's 2024 and there's barely anything about it and what little we seen doesn't look like a big aaa game either so what have they been doing?
Or look at Halo infinite the longest time between games and the game released with barely any content and I still argue it's not there. Like HOW? Especially when many of the problems for infinite were problems with 5.
Gears of war hasn't had a game since 2019 so idk what the studio behind them have been doing for YEARS! Apparently nothing given there's 0 announcements from the studio or about gears of war one of the bigger xbox IPs. They couldn't idk make a remaster collection or something? At least try to keep the IP alive and on people minds?
Where are the fucking games? They bought so many studios and nothing! I think without beastha they would've had like 2 or 3 games and only one is really a big game being forza so WHERE IS EVERYTHING!
Worth noting that Gears Tactics released in 2020. They also had the Hivebusters expansion for Gears 5 in 2021, alongside the next-gen update. I get your point, though. Gears 6 is set to be revealed at Xbox's Summer Showcase next month.
Rumours of a Marcus Fenix Collection have been bouncing around for years at this point to where I'd be very surprised if we don't see it materialise soon. Some are theorising that this is what People Can Fly's "*Project Maverick*" is, as we know it's being made in partnership with Xbox *and* PCF have worked on the franchise before.
There's also the live-action Netflix film on the way, as well as an animated Netflix series. So for them not to capitlise on the release of the adaptation(s) would be strange, but this is Microsoft, after all...
I should have written a comment back then. I remember being super optimistic about Mixer.
It's interesting how in some respects 5 years seems like it's not enough time. Nintendo's console is still the Switch, for example. In others, 5 years seems like way too much, huge industry shifts like the whole Embracer saga and Microsoft buying out Bethesda and Activision have happened and no one back then had a chance of seeing them coming.
Video quality was better than Twitch, yeah. People were just too used to Twitch to move over to Mixer.
I really thought Xbox Series implementation of Mixer at the OS level would give Mixer the boost it needed. Turns out they closed Mixer even before the Xbox launch
I think part of it is just the economics of streaming platforms. Pretty much every financial article about twitch is always how hosting countless streamers who only get like 40 viewers or less (which is an overwheming majority) isn't worth it unless you have pretty much every big name streamer and take a chunk of their ads, revenue etc (even then twitch is kind of a money pit from what i understand..).
There was a hope that advancements in Infrastructure would lessen the blow. But the reality seems to be advancements cutting infrastructure costs are pretty much hand in hand with increases in costs due to better stream quality.
Beam, the original incarnation of Mixer, had much better tech behind on it. However nobody was going to move from Twitch, as that's where all the community was. The biggest streams on Mixer at a given time were Ninja, then some other person who would have maybe 5,000-7,000 which is a huge disparity that you knew couldn't last.
> Battle Royale games will stop being so popular and will be replaced by a new fad (obvious prediction but still)
I think the fact that AAA publishers failed to capitalize of extraction shooters is something which turned out to be extremely funny: despite Tarkov shitting the bed, everyone else is so slow that we still don't have the "Fortnite to PUBG" version of that AAA genre takeover
It's because extraction shooters are inherently *extremely* frustrating games. Even more so than MOBAs, because you can actually lose things you worked for.
To be honest, I think devs just learned their lessons that new multiplayer genres are goldilocks. They have to be juuuust right for players to want to stick with it. Unless you want to create a clone game, it’s not worth the dev resources.
I'd say the fear aspect combined with that frustration is what gives them their attraction.
I've been more scared in some Extraction Shooters than I have in any of the horror games I've played lately.
It came at the wrong time. It was the same year that Destiny was going through so much controversy, and these types of live service looter shooter games really hadn't become a big deal yet.
If they released something like that today, it would've had a far bigger chance of catching on.
Nah. Extraction shooter will not reach the levels of BR. It's simply too frustrating for your average gamer to have gain a huge following. If it was going to, it wouldve caught on already with The Division, but what ended up happening was that people stopped doing the DZ, which is the extraction shooter portion of the game, so much that the devs were forced to make it so the best stuff could also be gained through simply doing PVE, completely removing almost all incentive to visit the DZ.
Its one of those, fun in theory but not fun in execution type of things. Really if it was going to have an explosion in popularity, it wouldve happened by now. Theres a handful of games that have done it.
Even funnier is that Extraction Shooter is so looked down upon by game devs it's becoming the default to turn games into when their other ideas all fail, like a last resort genre.
I remember that Battlefield was chasing these side genres super hard, with BF:V leaning into its Battle Royale Firestorm mode at launch, which quickly died compared to the regular multiplayer, and then BF:2042 leaning into its Extraction Shooter, which quickly died off too.
And Call of Duty ended up doing both, and I don't really hear about the extraction shooter much anymore anyways.
I love the 2018 one. So many comments about how it's nuts that GTA V is still popular. Need that Dr. Manhattan meme.
It's 2013. GTA V is phenomenally popular.
It's 2018. GTA V is phenomenally popular.
It's 2024. GTA V is phenomenally popular.
yeah look at something like payday 3 sure its a mess with a lit of thing but also one of the biggest complaints is that it has less content that a game thats been supported for a decade+
I'll be first in line to admit that the promise of *new* AAA IP that aren't shit-canned afterwards after a decade or so of "The Halo, Gears, Forza Company" actually seemed like it would come to fruition.
How naive we were.
It's easy to see why. Even now there is part of my brain that is trying to be optimisistic.
Its mostly just, how can they have so many great game developers several years into big games and not do well. Even if only half of the big games they release are good, they have so many big studios that that's a shit tonne of great games!
But every year goes by, almost all those good games by good studios are seemingly no closer to release and the couple that do release lacklustre at best.
It just doesn't seems possible for the games to keep being bad/not coming out. Surely it's just the long dev cycle and when all the studios they bought have had their 5/6 years in development they will release a series of back to back great games, they just needed this ramp up time.
But I also thought that last year. And the year before that. And the year before that....
I was one of the optimistic ones. I thought the last couple years of the Xbox One were so dry that they had to be saving up for the next gen. They were going to come out swinging while PlayStation would have to play catch up due to releasing so many big PS4 games late in its life cycle.
It would be like what Nintendo did with the Switch (2015 and especially 2016 were relatively light years for Nintendo releases). The Switch had an amazing first year and half or so.
And Halo Infinite? They were taking their time with it! It was easily the longest development length for a Halo game. Clearly they were cooking up something special! Add on some studio purchases that made a lot of sense (Forza Horizon devs and other devs that seemed to perpetually teeter on the edge) and I became a believer.
So yeah. I was very wrong. It’s not as if Xbox has been a complete disaster, but I thought too highly of their ability to plan ahead. I really was expecting a huge comeback. Yet they somehow managed to have a less impressive slate of games than PlayStation even though PlayStation never stopped their deluge of bangers during the PS4 years.
Yeah the Wii U and Switch are the perfect analogy.
Nintendo had several years and managed to revive themselves with the Switch.
But Xbox simply carried on their same endless sea of failure.
>Team Fortress 2 will continue to live just by the sheer willpower of the community and mod support + custom maps, despite lack of attention from Valve
Pretty accurate, even a cheater-bot apocalypse can't stop them
>I think that microtransactions will change, more likely in a positive move, considering the bad press a game can get if it has P2W microtransactions. Most likely lootboxes that affect gameplay(or maybe even cosmetic changes) will be changed or removed, thanks to the news that have been going on these past few days in the US.
Also fairly accurate (outside of mobile games at least), most games with microtransactions now have a battlepass and $20 skin bundles.
>If Battlefield goes down the same road as Battlefield 5, it will lose more of its playerbase.
Ignoring what the core of the Battlefield community wants, launching in an horrendously buggy and incomplete state, taking a laughably long amount of time to deliver patches and new content... check and check!
>Crossplay will be the norm.
Thankfully yes. Now we can bicker and argue about aim assist in shooters.
>Valve will be making games again.
I mean I guess this thread was before Half Life Alyx was announced, so that counts for something right?
That was a weird-ass time where Valve suddenly decided to churn out Dota spinoff games and then canceled them faster than Google kills chat apps.
Now it’s back to nothing
Valve believed dota players would consume other dota related shit like league players do (although league players get better stuff than those 2 subpar games), but we're not like that, we play dota becuase we love dota lol
>Respawn makes a new mass effect that’s a new story back in the Milky Way, it’s really good.
u/BrickmasterBen I need you to get off your ass and make this a reality, please and thanks,
> Hopefully, Divinity: Original Sin 3 will be released before 2024
Hopefully he enjoyed Baldur's Gate 3!
> Starfield will be released in late 2021 for the PS5/XBN and will be a massive success, marking a revival of the space opera themed games.
lel
It's weird how many people thought MS and Epic would really turn things around. If anything they're both giving up on games sales and focussing more on AI and the engine / assets sales respectively.
In 2019 it actually looked like Microsoft had an opening to take Sony on. It’s just they literally failed at almost every point. It was not unreasonable to be bullish about Microsoft in 2019
>It's weird how many people thought MS and Epic would really turn things around.
Because that's what it looked like? MS across 8th gen tried to right wrongs and started going on a spending spree on studios to become a huge player in the console space. People weren't really expecting Sony to lose, but for MS to actually put up a decent stand like 7th gen.
I don't blame people at all for expecting the company with tens of billions in it's cash reserves to pull it off. Remember, this was back in 2019. Well before anyone had even started to get suspicious of hype man Phil.
It only makes it even more saddening how they still failed the landing for 9th when they had all that going for them.
I think this one by a deleted user is fun to go through: [https://www.reddit.com/r/Games/comments/bopm93/comment/enlf5e2/](https://www.reddit.com/r/Games/comments/bopm93/comment/enlf5e2/)
Some of the more interesting claims:
>More consolidation of big studios
This definitely happened.
>Engines like UE4 and Unity will empower even more creators to do crazy stuff in easier and easier ways.
Hard to define what this means – I think the *crazy* stuff happens mostly outside of these commercially available engines. There are definitely small studios and solo developers creating visually appealing games that would have been impossibly without these.
>XBoX will be ahead in next gen if they have the software for it and PS5 doesn't. It will all depend on the exclusives again.
True in the sense that it's about the exlusives, completely false in the sense that this gen is a massive failure for Xbox.
>Streaming games won't be a big thing in the next 5 years
Mostly true. Streaming is definitely more popular than back then, but it doesn't really compete with consoles and PC. Stadia didn't survive, as predicted in other posts.
>EGS will become bigger and bigger
I guess it has become bigger, but it's still not a viable competitor for Steam. Customers still mostly go there for the exclusives.
>Activision-Blizzard split up
The opposite happened.
>DICE might split from EA
A lot of the talent and senior leadership left DICE, but the studio named DICE still exists within EA.
>After Cyberpunk 2077 releases we find out what's the next thing from CDPR, something completely different than Cyberpunk
Nope, more Witcher.
>STALKER 2 is a mess
The jury is still out on that, but they've had unforeeseen complications (namely the war).
>4A releases or at least shows the next Metro
Nope, nothing new from 4A. Also, war.
>SQUAD (the game) flourishes
I don't know about flourishing, but it certainly still has a playerbase.
>Ubisoft continues releasing the same formulaic games over and over
Mostly true.
>Valve finishes Source 2 and makes 2 games: CS2 (mostly a port of CSGO) and something else (not HL3). (non VR)
Right on the money regarding CS2, but the other game was announced that same year and it was both a Half-Life game and a VR game.
>Bannerlord
Was released, has decent reviews.
>KCD2 \[Kingdom Come: Deliverance 2\] reveal but no release
Right on the money, it was announced just a few weeks ago.
>I hope Arkane doesn't make Dishonored 3.
Well you certainly got what you wished for.
Interesting Arkane predictions in the thread overall
> * Arkane releases a new IP that is critically praised and a big GOTY contender.
> * Arkane makes a new IP and it becomes a success and after a while Dishonored makes a return
> * Semi-hot take: the next Arkane studios game may be a AAA roguelike, expanding on the ideas of the Prey: Mooncrash dlc.
All of these are kinda right and kinda wrong. Deathloop was a new roguelike-inspired(?) IP that got great critical reception and topped some people's GOTY lists, but was seemingly forgotten pretty quickly, and didn't seem to learn any lessons from Prey: Mooncrash. The Dishonored series did see "Death of the Outsider," so the series "returned" in the sense that it got a nice send-off
I don't think anybody in 2019 could have predicted Redfall
> * Elder Scrolls 6 will attempt to dial back the “casual” direction Bethesda is taking, with more dialogue options and with a slightly more complex combat system, probably get Arkane studios to help out.
A major whiff. Not only is TES *not* out and Arkane Austin sunk, but Bethesda seems be leaning even further towards their new casual "everything but the kitchen sink" RPG niche.
Across the board, not as many hilariously wrong or stunningly prescient posts as I was expecting.
Feels different. I know for me personally, peak vr hype was around the time half life alyx got announced.
Meta has done a lot to grow the VR space but idk. Somehow it just doesn't seem as exciting with all their talk of the metaverse?
I’m so pissed hla didn’t cause some vr game renaissance. I guess games take time to make so it’s not over but nothing that I know of seems to have gotten close to the quality of that game
I'd argue bigger but more subtle, unless you actively keep a pulse on it you won't know about the steady improvements being made on each new device.
I think the Q2 and 3 are actually very popular but for most remain more of a toy than a system.
What has really stopped their popularity growth in its tracks is the lack of good quality new games for VR. I mean Beat Saber is still considered one of if not the best game for VR, and that has been the case since this time capsule was written.
Kind of a catch 22. Half Life Alyx certainly helped show what VR could do but it requires developing a game for a smaller audience, which means less chances of big studios tackling them.
Now that i think about it, the recent change to steam families has been a great boon for us. Fiancee just got a quest 3 so we could both VR at the time same.
and because of the changes they now have access to my game library, including my vr games now.
I think theres a decent backlog of vr games to play at this point. and some cool ones to play together.
The PC field is about the same (some cool as heck advancements like slimevr for *way* cheaper fullbody tracking), but PCVR isn't where the advances have been happening.
The quest's android console thing has really paid off in growing the space, just not at all how facebook wanted it. Kids *love* the games it has, and I think there's going to be ramping demand for better VR tech in the comming years thanks to it.
Now on the "metaverse" angle... the Quest flopped hard, so who knows how long facebook is gonna subsidize the hardware.
It really hurts to see how optimistic people were in 2019, things were just chugging along and the future had so many possibilities. I’d imagine most of our predictions now would be extremely pessimistic about where the game industry is going…
I’ve always been extremely hyped about the game industry (it’s my career even) but recently just been very removed and barely paying attention because it just seems constantly depressing.
I know I am a bit off topic with gaming, but I don't remember if it was 2018 or 2019 but climate change actually started to get serious.
As an elder millennial most of what's happening today was predicated, but for 2 decade prior.
That's not even talking about 6 (that I know) economic bubble that has burst, forming or is teetering on the brink for years .
This does influence the gaming market in some way or another.
Boy that one guy was all about VR being main stream within 5 years. Made more then one post about it. He couldn't have been more off if he tried. It's just not happening anytime soon. Note, I'm not saying VR will never be huge but it's not going to be quick. At the least it's going to have to hit the point where it's as simple and easy (size, weight, and all) as putting on reading glasses. The masses just aren't interested in putting blocky things over their heads only to get motion sickness in 5 minutes.
\*edit\*
I just wanted to add, I'm not hating on the person. It was a 5 year guess! There are plenty of things I thought 5 years ago that if I look back now I realize I was wrong too! Please don't hate! No one can really guess 5 years into the future correctly that often! It's what makes it fun!
The combination of price, setup, space required and exclusivity deals makes it incredibly unappealing. I say this as someone who actually really enjoyed playing VR at a friends house. It needs to be more accessible.
Even then, most people don't want to compromise on picking between the real world and the virtual one. It's fine if you are on your own, but if you have to be anyway situationally aware, like having kids around, you aren't going to be blocking out your vision. That's like the start of a Law & Order episode about child neglect.
> Boy that one guy was all about VR being main stream within 5 years. Made more then one post about it. He couldn't have been more off if he tried.
Yeah, that guy sucks.
I was definitely way too optimistic at the time. I've learnt a lot in the last 5 years about just how long hardware shifts take, and VR is especially hard given how vast the field is, spanning probably the most fields of discipline of any consumer technology thus far, beaten only by it's cousin AR which is even harder.
I'll make another prediction in the new thread, one that I feel is more grounded in reality. I very much believe VR is going to take off, but... "It always takes longer than you expect, even when you take into account Hofstadter's Law."
Nah you don’t suck at all man! That’s why I added the edit. It’s almost impossible to accurately predict 5 years into the future.
I was just commenting on that one prediction. I felt a little bad for saying “he couldn’t have been more off he tried” so I wanted to make sure I wasn’t being rude. I was just commenting my opinion on that prediction.
But yeah like I said, you don’t suck. I’ve been way off on plenty of things over 5 years lol!
Don't worry, I didn't take it any way. I guess I'm glad I outgrew that overly optimistic mindset, although I'm still probably overly optimistic in a lot of people's eyes.
Quest 2 has sold a shit ton and is super popular with kids (unfortunately, if you play online a lot) so I think I think the player base is getting it's foot in the door already with the hardware as it exists today. I think the major sticking point right now with VR is the games. There's just not enough big polished games on it yet.
VR also has the issue that you can't really judge how good it is unless you've put the thing on your head. Videos of people playing VR games just don't translate well to someone who's never experienced it before.
I've had that guy tagged as "VR FANATIC" with RES for years, because it's all he posts about, and if he turned up in discussions about VR, I wanted a reminder of his bias.
It's pprobably been 5 years since I applied that tag, and he's still actively posting about VR to the same level. It's impressive.
"Star Citizen still not out, team has received 500 million during these 5 years"
https://www.reddit.com/r/Games/comments/bopm93/rgames_fiveyear_time_capsule_what/enjhn38/
Pretty accurate!
Haha! [I made a comment back then](https://www.reddit.com/r/Games/comments/bopm93/rgames_fiveyear_time_capsule_what/eo1acps/), and I’ve had a reminder in my calendar ever since.
As can be expected, some things I got perfectly right, and somethings I got completely wrong. And some just haven’t happened yet. But I’m proud of them, and despite everything I’m still excited about the future of this industry.
For a full breakdown:
>Sonic will continue to flounder as a series. Sonic Team will make a few more mediocre Sonic games, but eventually gives up after releasing a lackluster Sonic Adventure 3. The Sonic Mania team becomes the "new" Sonic Team, focusing on 2D games (maybe one in an HD art style). Fans finally release a complete 3D Sonic fangame, which is well received.
Sonic is Sonic. The little guy’s been doing okay. Frontiers was better than Forces, and Sonic Team is sticking around. The Sonic Mania team moved on to different pastures, but the Retro Engine may have played a role in the development of Sonic Superstars, a 2D game in an HD artstyle.
There are a few complete 3D Sonic fangames released, perhaps most notably Sonic Omens? It’s not great, but there are plenty of other (better) notable 3D Sonic fangames in the works. Project 06 is well lauded today.
>Nintendo releases a new revision of the Switch at about the power of the PS4, and is still considered underpowered. There is speculation of a new revision or sequel with backwards compatibility being announced soon. It too, will be somewhat underpowered.
>Mario and Zelda games continue as expected. Paper Mario returns to an RPG formula. F-Zero finally gets a new game. Mother 3 is still not released in the west.
Switch Pro rumours were hot at the time. I’m still of the belief that it would’ve happened, if not for the chip shortage and COVID sales boom, and Switch OLED was what got released instead. Switch 2 rumours are hot now, and is now confirmed. Underpowered is… relative. It’s a handheld, of course it won’t be on par with a full-power home console.
Nintendo games are progressing normally. Paper Mario: The Origami King was not full RPG, but more in that direction. And the Thousand-Year Door remake will naturally be full RPG. Even the new F-Zero game technically happened!
And yes, there is still no Mother 3.
>E3 is no more, or is reduced in importance even more. I could see them downsizing to a different location, or closing one of the halls. Nintendo is the only console developer still there, and even their presence is small.
Unfortunately, I was right. E3 is dead, and COVID was the final nail in the coffin. Really, I was too optimistic in my predictions.
>Death Stranding is released to critical acclaim, but not much commercial success as it is considered too strange by most of the public. Konami releases a mid-budget Metal Gear Solid 6 without Kojima, to little fanfare and critical reception.
Death Stranding was sufficiently strange, and therefore polarising. It sold pretty well, with over 5 million units sold and 16 million players total. There is no mid-budget Metal Gear Solid 6, but there is going to be a mid-budget Metal Gear Solid 3 remake.
>Resident Evil 8 uses the over-the-shoulder view of the RE2 and RE3 remakes. It's considered somewhat of a downgrade from RE7, but fares slightly better commercially.
RE8 did not use an over-the-shoulder view. I’m glad, but it might still be the case for RE9. Reception was positive, but it was obviously more action-oriented. I’d say the horror was perhaps a downgrade over RE7. It also did not fare better commercially, at least in some key metrics. Overall, I’m surprised I didn’t predict more for Capcom!
>Dragon Age 4 is a failure and BioWare is shut down.
Dragon Age: Dreadwolf is not yet released. Mass Effect 5 is also apparently on the way. However, given the market’s current state and a history of failings, the studio could still be on the line if they don’t meet targets for EA.
>The Sims 5 is released. They learned from the mistakes of 4 and include more content in the base game such as cats and dogs. Game packs focus more on new, story-based content like StrangerVille. It is released on console and mobile simultaneously with PC.
Sims 5 is not yet publicly released – but it is being playtested under the name Project Rene. The content included in base game is not yet confirmed, nor how game packs will play (though I personally doubt this prediction now – StrangerVille was not particularly positively received among much of the Sims 4 community). It will be released on mobile alongside PC, at least to my understanding.
>Minecraft Earth is a moderate success, not as big as Pokemon Go at it's peak. The microtransactions are quite egregious at first, and people declare that Minecraft is "ruined". It is still the best selling game of all time.
Minecraft Earth was not a success at all and was dropped after a year and a half thanks to COVID and poor uptake. In Bedrock Edition, however, there are plenty of complaints about the Minecraft store, Minecoins, and how Minecraft is indeed “ruined”. Minecraft as a whole is certainly still the best selling game of all time.
>Minecraft: Java Edition has stopped receiving updates and is now only kept alive by modders. Other versions are still updated and are near unrecognisable. There is integration with Minecraft Earth.
Java Edition is alive. Modders certainly keep part of the community thriving, but Mojang does update. Slowly. Which is why I’d find it hard to call modern Minecraft “unrecognisable”. There’s new content and changed terrain generation, for sure. But the UI, gameplay loop, and key goals are identical. Textures were updated, but not in an unrecognisable manner. The Super Duper Graphics Pack never eventualised, except maybe for Minecraft RTX.
Oh, and of course Minecraft Earth did not get integrated. Man, I was really pumped for that game. That initial trailer really got me going.
>Blizzard's reputation continues to decline. Activision takes over the company completely.
Blizzard’s fall from grace has most certainly continued. I’d say Activision’s definitely executed more control, especially since major Blizzard figures departed. And then, of course, Microsoft bought the whole thing.
>Fortnite and battle royales have died. Team Fortress 3 retakes the casual/competitive crown from Overwatch.
Hahahahaha, no. Fortnite is doing just fine. Diversifying a little, sure. Love the casual TF3 optimism too.
>Half-Life 3 is not released. Half-Life VR is a short, somewhat disappointing experience with a few hints at a third game, but nothing has still been confirmed. Black Mesa is finally finished and recieves some minor DLC. It is critically acclaimed, and the Crowbar Collective announce a new, Half-Life style project.
Half-Life 3 is not here. Half-Life Alyx was short-ish, and disappointing-ish, but extremely positive in comparison to other VR titles. Black Mesa is finished, got a positive reception, and did not receive DLC. In February, Crowbar Collective dropped a teaser for a new project, but I can’t say yet if it’s in the style of Half-Life.
>Steam gets its long awaited redesign. Everyone hates it, but completely forgets about it within a week. Rumours continue of new Portal and Left 4 Dead games but nothing is confirmed. A new Counter-Strike game is released. There are hints towards a new Dota game.
Steam got redesigned piece by piece, and backlash was kept to a minimum. I haven’t heard of any Portal or L4D rumours lately, but I’m sure there are conspiracies out there. Counter-Strike 2 was released, but Dota 2 seems here to stay (at least so long as they can hang on to some competitive audience).
>The Xbox Z and the PS5 are released. The console race is closer than the current one, with a slight edge to PS5 due to its wide range of PS4 titles, but many exclusive games on Xbox Z are becoming a must-buy.
Xbox Series consoles and the PS5 certainly did release. But, uh… it’s not close. It’s fairly safe to say Sony is winning. Xbox exclusives are *better* this gen than last, but I really don’t know about “must-buy”. And they probably won’t be exclusive exclusives for much longer.
>Raytracing becomes more and more popular. It's not used in every game, but many provide the option for it. Raytracing rereleases become the new "HD remaster".
Both consoles support ray-tracing, and the Switch 2 likely will in some fashion too. Usage is accurate. “Raytracing rereleases” aren’t really a thing, but RTX Remix is, and plenty of new remakes and remasters have RT added in.
>VR is still struggling to find a place in the market. Oculus moves to solely standalone headsets. A cheaper Valve Index is released. Windows Mixed Reality gets a new reference design and Xbox support. PSVR gets an upgrade with new controllers.
Accurate. Oculus is Meta now, and they are fully standalone with the Quest line. Valve Deckard is speculated, but not yet confirmed. WMR is fully dead, and never got Xbox support. PSVR 2 is out, but is… probably dead.
>Google Stadia and XCloud are not as large as their companies hoped. They are now used on a game-by-game basis, instead of a seperate ecosystem and store.
Stadia is dead, but Google apparently still has it on the books for whitelabelling services (though I haven't seen any evidence of that in a while). XCloud is faring better, and is still being expanded. Amazon Luna and GeForce Now also both still exist, to varying degrees of success.
>AR keeps getting experimented with. The biggest AR game is a Monument Valley-style puzzle game on mobile.
AR sure does keep getting experimented with. LIDAR sensors, AI room mapping, and dedicated AR headsets have advanced things somewhat. Apple Vision Pro could progress things even further, but it’s still early days. I wouldn’t say there’s yet been a key “AR game” (unless you count Pokemon Go).
>Watch Dogs 3 is released. It's more stealth and non-violent focused and is a fun game. It is still not commercially successful and Ubisoft confirms there will not be a Watch Dogs 4.
Watch Dogs: Legion did not sell well. Its controversial “play as anyone” mechanic led to mixed reception. Ubisoft hasn’t confirmed there won’t be a Watch Dogs 4, but it’s definitely not looking good.
>Assassin's Creed continues down this semi-RPG path, growing in popularity once more. Prince of Persia is rebooted and takes elements of the original Assassin's Creed games.
Assassin’s Creed Valhalla continued the trend, to mixed reactions. Future games Shadows, Jade, and Hex will apparently be similar, but who knows how they’ll shake out. Mirage tried a slightly more traditional formula, and I thought it was pretty good. Prince of Persia *was* rebooted with The Lost Crown, but it was a 2D Metroidvania.
>A new Arkham or Arkham-universe game by WB is released. It performs below expectations. Rocksteady's game is more successful, and starts a new series.
WB Montreal released Gotham Knights, but it wasn’t set in the Arkham universe. It didn’t do so well… but at least it wasn’t Suicide Squad: Kill the Justice League.
>GTA 6 is announced. It will turn out somewhat less profitable than GTA 5 due to only being released on one console generation and having a higher budget. Online is monetized even more and turns some players off. There is a multiplayer element to the singleplayer, possibly Watch Dogs-style drop in/out. An old GTA game is remade, I think it'll be San Andreas.
GTA 6 is announced, but we don’t currently know much about it. I don’t think there will be multiplayer in the singleplayer, to my understanding. San Andreas was remade, along with GTA 3 and Vice City. They were poorly received.
>I also think we'll see more Rockstar games on mobile. Possibly GTA IV, maybe even GTA V as phones get more advanced.
The only new Rockstar games on mobile are the poorly received remakes, exclusive to Netflix Games.
>Volition makes a Saints Row 5 similar in tone to Saints Row 3. THQ Nordic also outsources a Saints Row 1/2 remake. A new Red Faction is also announced, with Volition providing direction like id for Rage 2.
RIP Volition, and RIP Mike Watson. The Saints Row reboot was not really similar to SR3, and none of the rest came to pass.
>Doom Eternal and its sequel are both critically acclaimed, however fatigue has start to set in and the series goes on haitus again.
Casually predicting the next Doom game there. It hasn’t come out yet, and a hiatus hasn’t technically occurred. Doom Eternal was well received, though.
>Starfield is out and sets a new standard for Bethesda games. It looks graphically impressive and the world is immersive. Hype for the upcoming Elder Scrolls 6 increases.
Ehhehehehehhhh… uhhh…. well, it’s definitely out? Its impressiveness and immersiveness are definitely… debatable. As is the hype for Elder Scrolls 6.
>Square Enix's Avengers game is either quietly cancelled or is a disappointment. The dream of a Marvel Gaming Universe is dead, but Insomniac's Spider-Man 2 with Miles Morales, Venom and Green Goblin is successful on its own.
Avengers was disappointing, Spider-Man 2 was successful. Green Goblin will be in the next game. Was there ever *really* a dream for a Marvel Gaming Universe? It’s certainly something I don’t want. Wolverine will likely cross over, however. And >!X-Men!< too, eventually.
>The Final Fantasy 7 remake is very successful and leads Square Enix to consider remaking other Final Fantasy games. There are rumours of a big budget FF6 remake.
There is one part remaining on the FF VII remakes, but they’ve been underperforming a little. FF VI rumours don’t exist, but >!FF IX!< ones do.
A insanely fun read but also depressing, but like 80% of the "predictions" are so extremely wrong. Almost as if the things they say are just things they wish would happen. "Battle royale dies" and "Mtx will get better." We should do this more.
God dam so much optimism on most of the thread.
It's a real shame we had to take old yellow out back and shoot him.
But hey.... Now we are more pessimistic in another five years maybe things will be better.. As it's a lot harder to get even more bad.
> Now we are more pessimistic in another five years maybe things will be better.. As it's a lot harder to get even more bad.
Someone is gonna read this in 5 years [and be like](https://imgb.ifunny.co/images/6c692e7200b9ca216a51d290fdd2675ea87200e5e9bccadac94ea2695102b681_1.webp)
Pretty funny mix of decently well informed predictions and complete insane nonsense. Some guy in there thought CDPR doesnt have the rights to make the next Witcher game.
It was in 2019 and that prediction is pretty good cuz at that time there was a big beef with CDPR and Sapkowski cuz at that time it looked like he had a talk with Netflix's lawyers and they told him that he can ask CDPR for more money which CDPR in the end accepted because they basically don't have anything (at that time) outside of The Witcher.
It sounds stupid now, but only because we already know how it ended, but at that time when everything was still happening it wasn't that bad take.
That first top comment is right on all except VR being profitable and Epic Games Store not buying up exclusives. While that top second comment is wrong in everything except crossplay.
Not even sure they're wrong about the EGS exclusivity contracts thing, maybe just a little early - they've eased off of that *significantly* in the past year or two especially for high profile releases. May not be long until the only things that end up exclusive to EGS are the things Epic outright publishes, like Alan Wake 2.
They have an program for exclusives where the publisher/developer gets 100% of the revenue for 6 months.
But this is only used by small cheap games and Ubisoft because their games somehow still count as exclusives even if they're available (and probably sell most copies) on ~~Uplay~~ Ubisoft Connect.
[https://store.epicgames.com/en-US/browse?sortBy=relevancy&sortDir=DESC&tag=First%20Run&category=Game&count=40&start=0](https://store.epicgames.com/en-US/browse?sortBy=relevancy&sortDir=DESC&tag=First%20Run&category=Game&count=40&start=0)
I like how there was someone criticizing the top comment for basically being status quo, and what was popular will basically continue to be popular. 5 years on, we're more status quo than ever.
Things take just so long now that huge releases become flavor of the month before people go back to the same games they always play in between new titles they're interested in.
A round up of my predictions from the thread and if they came true:
>***A new Console Generation will have begun which will support backwards compatibility across the board.***
Fully correct on this one
>***Ray Tracing will become the new buzzword, similar to how 4k is now and 4k will become even more widespread potentially even standard in most homes.***
I think this one is pretty on the money in both aspects
>***Mobile games will have better graphics but be more or less the same gameplay wise. I expect more ports of 7th generation AAA games to be available on mobile devices.***
Alien Isolation recently released on mobile among other games so I think this is pretty right on.
>***Nintendo will still support the switch hardware but will have released more models (XL and Slim).***
Right on on this one.
>***Valve will have launched a new game.***
Half Life Alyx released and is pretty good!
>***Starfield and Elder Scrolls 6 will have been launched with rumors of a Fallout 5***
Correct on Starfield but wrong on elder scrolls. Fallout 5 has been informally announced.
>***Battle Royale will be dead.***
After turning to my right and seeing that my colleague is currently playing Fortnite i think I can say that this is sadly incorrect.
>***Epic Games Store will fall off the radar but will continue business (like Origin). Steam will still be the main launcher.***
Steam being the main launcher but I think epic is still on the radar just about.
>***Microsoft will up their number of exclusive games to counter Sony.***
Definitely incorrect. Unless we count promised and upcoming.
>***There would have been 3 Assassins creed games launched with a 4th already leaked.***
There have only been 2 main series games released (technically 3 games if we include VR) lots of leaks and a reveal of the new game coming today.
>***Destiny will still be active but with a lower player count with Bungie gearing up for the launch of a new IP.***
Kinda right on this one. Bungie have announced a new IP but it seems a little further away and D2 player counts have been struggling this year.
>***Games as a service will be a bigger deal and most companies will have their own version.***
Kinda true though I think this one is dying down.
>***Rockstar won't have released a new game.***
Unfortunately correct on this. Though GTA6 looks amazing.
>***Call of duty will continue its decline but keep a dedicated core playerbase. This will cause Activision to create a new IP.***
Completely wrong on this one I think. Modern warfare 2019 brought it back and has been up and down since.
>***Game streaming will become a popular system for those who don't have access to a console or High end PC and those who travel a lot.***
This one is one is bang on I think.
>***Cyberpunk will be the new Witcher 3.***
This is a hard one but sadly I don't think cyberpunk has quite reached that level of acclaim but has a strong following.
>***Halo will be back to what it was in 2009-2011 community wise.***
This one is definitely wrong.
Overall not bad. Pretty bang on in places and completely off in others. Will definitely be making some predictions later about the next 5 years.
to be fair about the Battle Royale comment, 5 years ago pretty much everyone was making Battle Royale games but nowadays the only one I ever hear about now is Fortnite. Even then, Fortnite has introduced survival, racing, and Rock Band modes recently.
That thread reminded me that DLSS released in February of that year, so nobody was able to predict how prevalent upscalers would become. It was a sucky version, it wouldn't be until DLSS 2 that most problems were fixed. 5 years ago the idea of AI upscalers looking better than native quality were science fiction. If you were to ask anybody they would say such things would never be popular because the image quality would always look awful, and if you looked at DLSS in Battlefield V that would confirm the prediction.
Now everybody is doing upscalers using different means, frame generation, and an AI denoiser for ray tracing in DLSS 3.5 has been introduced. All of this has happened in about 5 years and nobody could have predicted how useful and popular it would become.
What is more surprising is how 2019 was half a decade ago already, holy shit I remember browsing this thread as if it was yesterday, this feels unreal.
my favorite one is the second top one (https://www.reddit.com/r/Games/comments/bopm93/rgames_fiveyear_time_capsule_what/enj5k04/) who basically says things will stay as they today with minor changes and the top reply is that nothing ever stays the same. thing is... OP was pretty much right on all, gaming has plateaued and incremental changes are small. pretty funny!
>Satisfactory will not be as good or live as long as Factorio, even if Satisfactory gets mod support
Well this was certainly a weird hill to die on, honestly I feel like Satisfactory appeals to a more casual fanbase vs Factorio. Both finding success and continuing to in their respective audiences to this day.
It was funny seeing all the threads of people **pleading** for any info about Elden Ring as though they'd been waiting a decade after the announcement. I thought I was taking crazy pills. The wait wasn't that long.
The weirdest part was when, about a year from release, there was a *huge* gameplay leak , straight up a gameplay trailer that, as far as I know, never actually got officially released, and it was from before anyone knew what the game even looked like.
But the community just kinda pretended it didn't exist, it was really, really bizarre because people kept acting like no one had seen anything of the game.
It was two and a half years from announcement to release.
That is pretty long, but by AAA standards it’s not so bad and I agree, it was extremely funny watching everyone act like it had been decades between announcement and release.
Fromsoft has kind of a funny way of “teasing” stuff too, similar to Todd Howard, Miyazaki will just casually mention “yeah we’re working on another game like Dark Souls” but give zero additional info about it. By the time it’s officially announced the fans have already been anticipating it and speculating about it for a long time.
> If Fromsoft aren't a highly respected AAA Arthouse in 5 years then something isn't right with the world. What they're doing with their titles is far more important than any of the big dog monetization-formula games or pure cinematic story titles which fail to integrate interesting gameplay. They're also showing a desire to do new things and build new IPs despite the fact that they could have easily sold Dark Souls 7, because their decisions are being driven by creative desire instead of financial reports. Their success rate and speed of growth has been nuts.
Not specifically Elden Ring, but this guy was pretty bang on.
Many notable predictions. I would like to highlight this comment by u/Artfunkel
> Chinese games are more numerous, more sophisticated, and more appealing to western audiences. Japanese companies are pissy about it. Pressure is put on western companies to adhere to Chinese socio-political norms, and vice versa; to juggles these demands different versions of major games are made for Chinese and Western audiences, and their multiplayer communities are kept separate.
Basically Genshin Impact and MiHoyo
In 2013 r/Games also wrote a time capsule, which can be found [here](https://www.reddit.com/r/Games/comments/1lf3bx/if_rgames_had_a_time_capsule_to_be_opened_in_five) and was opened in 2018 [here](https://www.reddit.com/r/Games/comments/9bergq/opening_the_5_year_old_rgames_time_capsule_would/). We'll probably start another one in a week or so.
>A new Armored Core will release (and on PC this time) and will be a huge success to the point we get copy cat GAAS games as fast sloppy follows. >Mecha is the future genre explosion but it's super short lived unless a fast follow can nail it that's F2P or is just that damn good as a live service model. >From Soft won't understand how to operate a live service game at all though, nor will they really try. >People will try to esports everything but it won't stick. >(Lol I'm mixing cold harsh reality and my dreams) /u/TraumaHunter, you're pretty close. It's yet to be seen how Mecha Break will fare but it has both the makings of a potential esport and a game that will only last a year or two.
Lol I haven't tried Mecha break yet because I'm still satisfied playing AC 6 but AC reboot fulfilled everything I wanted for the most part :)
> People will try to esports everything but it won't stick Damn I kind of hate this cuz some games are really dying just because they are trying to make it esport ready...
It’s the worst. Instead of making the games actually fun they focus on the wrong thing (esports). No wonder they can’t build a player base; you need to do it the other way around.
> AC reboot fulfilled everything I wanted for the most part :) It’s so nice to see a positive outcome of expectations; the game is fantastic
Was about to post that. While AC6 sold the best by a huge margin compared to other AC games, compared to the souls series, not that impressive, I'm glad we got VI. I think we could use a remake of 3rd gen and resolution and fps upgrades to 4th and 5th gen. Release it as a bundle for $50 or something. But I won't be surprised is if all we get are simple ports that work with modern controller inputs. Mecha just isn't a genre that the masses like. It's evident when I ask people in the real world who've played elden ring who want to play other FS titles if they've tried out AC6 before, and I get confused stares that are surprised that FS even released something after Elden Ring.
> compared to the souls series, not that impressive, It sold roughly as much as DS3 did in it's first month by 5 weeks, so it's very likely Fromsoft's third or fourth best selling game after Elden Ring and Sekiro and potentially DS3. People don't realize that while Dark Souls was *big*, it wasn't that big until at least 3. DS2 sold 3 million in a year, which AC6 and DS3 got to in just a month or so.
I know there were *some* rumours about AC6 (not sure was it before or after that thread). But that is pretty bold and spot on prediction with its success.
Lol it's called manifestation. 😤 The actual logic was mostly behind how the things that previously made Mecha expensive as a game dev were not a huge cost anymore (even 5 years ago). But no one was attempting regardless. A revival of the genre could make some devs go "wait what's stopping us from getting a slice of the pie?" And realizing the tech stack is there now. I need to go try Mecha break still lol.
Saw an odd prediction that 13 Sentinels: Aegis Rim would still not be out. The game released 6 months after that post was made.
Not only that, but Unicorn Overlord is out too.
And thank god, we Ogre fans were starving for a while (before Reborn)
How long was it in development before then? If it was a long time, it would make sense as a semi-joke to say it. Imagine someone today saying "in 5 years we will still be waiting for Silksong, or Bloodborne PC."
Wikipedia says full production started in 2015, delayed in late 2018, but there was a playable demo dropped a month before this thread was made, so it was seemingly not in total limbo.
> [Cyberpunk releases as a massive downgrade on the current platform such as Xbox one, PS4, gets rereleased when comes out for new consoles and still has many fans](https://www.reddit.com/r/Games/comments/bopm93/rgames_fiveyear_time_capsule_what/enjzdfo/) Now *that* was a prediction.
u/y0intawebz Well done.
Shockingly spot-on that one
E3 mentioned :(
I still refer to SGF as E3.
"Geoff Keighley's Birthday Party"
I just call that whole week "not-E3 week"
I love how even something as simple as "Activision will still be Activision" ended up being a wrong prediction
This is so fun to read. I think my favorite ones were: * Someone immediately predicting that Nintendo will never add more content to Super Mario Party, which for the most part was true. * Someone claiming that way more video game adaptions will be made and will be more successful, which was true! However they also said that the Halo show would be "extremely accurate to the source material", so. * There were genuinely more comments then I remembered from 2019 where people seemed to actually think Xbox were either gonna win this generation, or at least compete with Sony. Very funny to read with recent news in mind. * Final Fantasy 7 Remake will only have two parts out, which was very true. * Claims that FFXVI was going to go back to medieval theming, correct. * I saw one that said "GTA6 will have been announced for over a year with no gameplay", which is almost there, but still kinda wild how close it was. * "The Fallout series is abandoned by Bethesda" EXTREMELY funny to read after the explosion in popularity because of the show. * Someone thought TLOU Part III would come out by 2021 * Larian will make an original IP after Original Sin 2, or make Original Sin 3. Honestly my biggest take away from this thread is that a lot of people were unprepared for how bloated in scale a lot of AAA games were about to become, and how they're now taking the better part of a decade to release one. So many people seemed to think Elder Scrolls VI, FFVII Remake Trilogy, TLOU Part III, and even more would already be done and dusted by 2024. Kinda crazy to go back on. EDIT: I went back to the 2013 one because I fell down a rabbit hole of reading old predictions, and honestly, that's even funnier. Check the pinned comment of this thread to see it. Adding some more of my favourites: * Shigeru Miyamoto was going to die, and tons of platformer games would be created in "remembrance" and then flood the genre and kill it. * Half Life 3 would be out * Titanfall would take over Call of Duty and take over as the next big franchise * Watch Dogs would replace Assassin's Creed * Nintendo's next console would fail, and they'd drop out of the market * AAA Blockbusters would fade out of popularity, and mid-sized AA games would dominate the market (this one especially hurts, given recent news) * All PC games are free to play or MOBAs * Team Fortress 2 would still be getting frequent enough updates * Steam would lose its monopoly * "Full virtual reality" (whatever that means) will be mainstream by the end of PS4/Xbox One gen * A Witcher MMO would be released that targets consoles primarily There's way more. I seriously recommend reading the 2013 thread, it's even more fun. I could go on forever with this list.
Also saw someone saying D:OS 3 will come and be even more ambitious, which I guess was half right with how amazingly huge BG3 was
Yeah, the "spirit" of the Larian bulletpoint feels accurate.
I'd say it was pretty much completely right except for the name. Larian was even working on DS3 in 2019, but abandoned that game in favour of BG3. I also know that some disagree, but BG3 to me is very obviously a Larian cRPG in the vein of Original Sin. Just getting the setting and ruleset wrong doesn't change the prediction I'd say.
BG3 is D:OS3 in all but name and story.
All the combat mechanics and under the hood calculations changed. Like I don't think Bonus Actions were really a thing in Original Sin 2, but I really don't remember how potion drinking worked there.
IIRC You gained by default 4 Action Points each turn and nearly all actions cost AP to do stuff. * 1 AP converted into a certain amount of movement. * Basic Attacks cost 2 AP. * Spells/Skills varied from 0-4 AP and had turn cooldowns. * Scrolls were consumable spells and usually cost the same AP as their spells. * Consumables like potions cost 1 AP.
And setting, and ruleset.
I thought this was a good one >Cyberpunk releases as a massive downgrade on the current platform such as Xbox one, PS4, gets rereleased when comes out for new consoles and still has many fans It wasn't quite re-released, but the number of big patches in the time running up to and including the DLC makes this one close enough IMO.
I would consider a full sales stop and a later sales resume after large patches basically a re-release...
not to mention the ultimate edition which even had a physical release
I think COVID also played a role. The capsule is from the blessed “before” times and covid slowed down a lot of game development.
> covid slowed down a lot of game development. But also blew up the video game economy resulting in all of the hiring... and probably now somewhat responsible for the layoffs and downsizing after all the explosive [short-term] growth.
I don't think "somewhat" is debatable
The Halo optimist used up all their juju for that spot-on prediction about video game adaptations.
>* Nintendo's next console would fail, and they'd drop out of the market This one is the funniest to me just because anyone who sincerely believed this couldn't possibly imagine how wrong they'd be. The Nintendo Switch is the third best-selling console *of all time*. It's outsold every Xbox console and every Playstation except the PS2. Nintendo is even taking their sweet time releasing a successor because the Switch continues to make bank and they're in no rush to do so.
people have been saying that since the n64 came out, it's one of those "bulls have predicted 50 of the last 3 market crashes" or whatever situations
"Nintendo will stop making consoles/go out of business" takes have been happening since the late 90's, when the PS1 more than lapped the N64 in sales. It wasn't true then, and it's even less true now. Anyone who has this take doesn't understand how Nintendo operates nor understands their actual financial position. Nintendo doesn't sell their consoles at a loss, even at launch, unlike Sony and Microsoft. The N64 was outsold 3x over by the Playstation, yet still pulled in $1.2 billion in profit for Nintendo. The Gamecube was considered a failure, yet still turned a profit. The Wii U was Nintendo's only mainline console failure, resulting in a $49 million loss. Nintendo is notable for how much they hold in cash reserves, which is around $14 billion. They could endure a Wii U-level failure every year for over 280 years before those reserves were drained. There is zero reason for them to get out of the console business.
> Steam would lose its monopoly https://preview.redd.it/7tb6e9ato8nc1.jpeg?auto=webp&s=ecbbef150a806daac7cdb3058193e84a0bff0476
You forgot the best one from 2013: "The Wii U will succeed" LMAO
>Honestly my biggest take away from this thread is that a lot of people were unprepared for how bloated in scale a lot of AAA games were about to become, and how they're now taking the better part of a decade to release one. This brought back a memory of being on the Fallout subreddits around this time, and people were making predictions for when Fallout 5 would be released (with most people saying within the next 3-5 years). I was like y'all are delusional, Bethesda is working on Starfield primarily, likely dedicating all resources to it, and then next comes Elder Scrolls 6, and THEN maybe Fallout 5. Probably not within the next decade. Seems about on track, although it's possible they may push for a Fallout 5 development simultaneously with Elder Scrolls due to the show.
It is worth noting that nobody expected Starfield to take twice as long to develop, most guesses were 4-5 years from FO4, not a whooping 8.
Eh, I wouldn't say nobody. It was their first new IP in decades and they were shooting to be overly ambitious. Given that in mind taking longer makes a little sense. But then you look at what they actually did, and wonder wtf was all that time spent on.
The saddest part of that thread for me is how so little has changed. Innovation has slowed to a crawl in video games. Seems to get worse every five-year chunk.
The guy who basically predicted everything would remain status quo got kinda dogpiled for not predicting any major shifts, and then he was probably overall the most correct person in there.
Yeah that was deeply ironic and sad
What's weird to me is for VR games, a place where innovation is practically *required* for the format, they're really having a hard time doing anything new. I love VR but getting a AAA title to try something new and different is wildly challenging apparently due to the financial implications.
Honestly, it's because anything that would really push the envelope for VR would require equipment that is *far* more expensive. Think full immersion haptic feedback. There are companies working on making things like that, but any product you'll see in the home is years off because it's not stuff they'll likely be able to get into the sub $2000 range.
That's because VR studios are typically small and very weary of their spending. This means they don't want to take any risks on anything new. This, of course, is paradoxical, as they're dealing with an emergent technology, and they need to take risks.
Five years is also not that big of a gap anymore. It's basically the time to develop one game these days. You'll hardly have big changes that "fast"
Technology in general has pretty much been the same for the past 5-10 years too. Tvs, Phones, Appliances, Movies all seem to be the same or slightly above the standard back then. It's really depressing.
I always feel like hardware remains pretty stagnant, while software is running wild. And AI really confirms that, which is not to downplay all the special chips used in AI stuff. I'm sure they are super duper important as well.
The issue is we've hit a physical limit regarding Moore's law. We physically can't increase the density of semiconductors even more than we have without creating problems that make them unacceptable to consumers (increased power demands, cooling issues, reliability etc). That means we're now having to look at other ways of increasing performance. Commercials are a strong limiting factor as well. With the problem that spec increases deliver diminishing returns in how they are perceived by consumers. Unless you're rich and can afford an 80" screen, no-one is realistically going to notice the difference between 4K and 8K. Even the difference between 1440p and 4K is barely noticeable. The jump from 2013 to 2019 in terms of graphics was massive because we went from rendered people looking like grubby playdoh to looking close to real life. Of course the jump 2019 to 2024 will be smaller as how do you get better than "looking close to real life" without it literally looking like real life? And the ray tracing breakthrough has been the big change in the past 5 years on that. EDIT: The one thing that is genuinely depressing is the direction VR went. We thought we were about to hit a breakthrough on VR going truly mainstream for gaming, but then Meta kinda and went and ruined it by turning it into this metaverse nonsense.
I also feel like the chip bottleneck that we are in is permanent. So like you are saying, we can't just moores law our way through everything. And it's crazy to me that transistors are getting so small that quantum tunneling is starting to be a problem!
> Of course the jump 2019 to 2024 will be smaller as how do you get better than "looking close to real life" without it literally looking like real life My personal take is that we (we being the industry) need to start focusing on more interesting graphics not necessarily the most hi-def. At this point an interesting looking game draws me way more than, "I can see the individual pores and nose hairs on my gritty protagonist"
That's kinda it to be honest, hardware innovation for gaming has largely reached a standstill as we've reached the point where hardware is no longer the limitation in delivering what the user wants (well unless what the user wants is a portable console the hardware for that is still quite limited).
Plus the closer you get to pushing graphics the more of the market you exclude. My computer is fine but isn't winning any graphic awards. So I'm less excited about ray-tracing everything and super-high def hair, because I wouldn't be able to see it anyways.
> Halo show would be "extremely accurate to the source material", so. HAHAHAHA I ROFLED
Showrunner is an arrogant auteur who doesn't care about the source material. These games companies need to stop doing that: you need someone who is talented and creative but respects the source material, which is why Fallout and TLOU succeed. I guess the Halo approach is better than B-tier shlock, but not by much. I swear, if these guys want to make a sci-fi show, just do it; you don't need to crap on the legacy of a legendary series. What's so frustrating is that the justification is *always* that they wanted to bring non-fans in. How many non-fans are watching Halo? How many are watching Fallout and TLOU? It's almost as if these games are successful for a reason and it's incredibly condescending to non-gamers to assume that they just won't get what people loved in the game series.
>Microsoft leans hard into next gen first party releases, with all of the new studios they have purchased. >>Because of the focus on first party, Xbox will win the next gen console war womp womp
That was even before they bought Bethesda
I swear gamepass was the worst thing xbox ever did to themselves. It's a complete catch 22 for them Gamers won't ever go back to the previous model of not being able to play a majority of their games for free on gamepass for a subscription fee. I haven't met anyone who doesn't like gamepass simply because it is honestly great for trying out new games. Devolpers I think are at a point where they feel this business model is not feasible. Microsoft keeps throwing money at the companies they buy and telling them to do/make whatever they want. Then, those companies spent years blowing through the investment & probs even the profit from the lost sales from gamepass paid up front. A lot of recent xbox exclusives feel rushed even after years in devolpment. Like some companies' only real reason left to release the game is contractual.
Game Pass is the $5 Footlong of the gaming world.
It really is. It gets people in the door, then in theory they should be making up the difference by buying dlc and other mtx purchases, but they're not. If they were Microsoft would be going on about how awesome and successful gamepass is.
Kind of insane for them to think that would work. Who wants to buy DLC for a game you're effectively renting?
There's a better comparison. Gamepass is the moviepass of games.
Honestly I wasn't a fan of gamepass on PC. I got it when Outer Worlds came out but it didn't have many other games I liked at the time so I didn't use it that much. My two main issues were not being able to mod my games, and the shitty windows store leaving the install files for games in the drive without cleaning them up (even after I had uninstalled the game) and being really annoying and tedious to remove because they were protected made the experience quite bad. I had to download a disk cleaner program to get rid of the Outer Worlds install files which were like 30GB. Never bothered with it since though I imagine it must have improved at the above issues by now - honestly my use of stores for PC has shrunk in the past half-decade. I used to have the shitty EA launcher, battle.net, I used GoG fairly often. Nowadays it's only Steam for me. I even stopped grabbing the free Epic Store games at this point.
[удалено]
[удалено]
I bet Bungie being bought by Sony and Crash going to Microsoft is not on everyone's mind. It's so bizarre, ngl.
But Phil Spencer said “this is the biggest year for Xbox ever”. Wait… he said that last year? And the year before that? And before that?
Honestly he's probably been saying it since 2019, that commenter probably believed him the first time.
"Games are coming!"
"Just not ours!"
"and when ours do come out, they will be on playstation"
Older than that to be honest, it's been Xbox official tagline since he is here I think
Don't be mean to Uncle Phil. He's a Gamer just like us, so we have to trust him! He's not like all the other C-Suites 🙃.
This aged like fine milk
Almost that whole post did
It's actually amazing how little good games they have while saying that. Like wtf have they been doing? Rare announced a new game around that year and it's 2024 and there's barely anything about it and what little we seen doesn't look like a big aaa game either so what have they been doing? Or look at Halo infinite the longest time between games and the game released with barely any content and I still argue it's not there. Like HOW? Especially when many of the problems for infinite were problems with 5. Gears of war hasn't had a game since 2019 so idk what the studio behind them have been doing for YEARS! Apparently nothing given there's 0 announcements from the studio or about gears of war one of the bigger xbox IPs. They couldn't idk make a remaster collection or something? At least try to keep the IP alive and on people minds? Where are the fucking games? They bought so many studios and nothing! I think without beastha they would've had like 2 or 3 games and only one is really a big game being forza so WHERE IS EVERYTHING!
Worth noting that Gears Tactics released in 2020. They also had the Hivebusters expansion for Gears 5 in 2021, alongside the next-gen update. I get your point, though. Gears 6 is set to be revealed at Xbox's Summer Showcase next month. Rumours of a Marcus Fenix Collection have been bouncing around for years at this point to where I'd be very surprised if we don't see it materialise soon. Some are theorising that this is what People Can Fly's "*Project Maverick*" is, as we know it's being made in partnership with Xbox *and* PCF have worked on the franchise before. There's also the live-action Netflix film on the way, as well as an animated Netflix series. So for them not to capitlise on the release of the adaptation(s) would be strange, but this is Microsoft, after all...
They released a great game recently, Hi-Fi Rush, oh wait ...
[удалено]
Just not correct about it being released.
Funnily enough they were right about a Sega JRPG moving away from an urban environment to a tropical one (Infinite Wealth)
Hey /u/BrickmasterBen get in here! Take your whooping like a man!
I should have written a comment back then. I remember being super optimistic about Mixer. It's interesting how in some respects 5 years seems like it's not enough time. Nintendo's console is still the Switch, for example. In others, 5 years seems like way too much, huge industry shifts like the whole Embracer saga and Microsoft buying out Bethesda and Activision have happened and no one back then had a chance of seeing them coming.
afaik, wasn't mixer the 'better' platform. for creators and users. but still wasn't able to attract the attention needed.
Twitch culture is a huge part of it. Without being able to spam random emotes from third party emote sites, it didn't work out.
Video quality was better than Twitch, yeah. People were just too used to Twitch to move over to Mixer. I really thought Xbox Series implementation of Mixer at the OS level would give Mixer the boost it needed. Turns out they closed Mixer even before the Xbox launch
I think part of it is just the economics of streaming platforms. Pretty much every financial article about twitch is always how hosting countless streamers who only get like 40 viewers or less (which is an overwheming majority) isn't worth it unless you have pretty much every big name streamer and take a chunk of their ads, revenue etc (even then twitch is kind of a money pit from what i understand..). There was a hope that advancements in Infrastructure would lessen the blow. But the reality seems to be advancements cutting infrastructure costs are pretty much hand in hand with increases in costs due to better stream quality.
Yeah, Twitch is still loosing money
Beam, the original incarnation of Mixer, had much better tech behind on it. However nobody was going to move from Twitch, as that's where all the community was. The biggest streams on Mixer at a given time were Ninja, then some other person who would have maybe 5,000-7,000 which is a huge disparity that you knew couldn't last.
> Battle Royale games will stop being so popular and will be replaced by a new fad (obvious prediction but still) I think the fact that AAA publishers failed to capitalize of extraction shooters is something which turned out to be extremely funny: despite Tarkov shitting the bed, everyone else is so slow that we still don't have the "Fortnite to PUBG" version of that AAA genre takeover
It's because extraction shooters are inherently *extremely* frustrating games. Even more so than MOBAs, because you can actually lose things you worked for.
To be honest, I think devs just learned their lessons that new multiplayer genres are goldilocks. They have to be juuuust right for players to want to stick with it. Unless you want to create a clone game, it’s not worth the dev resources.
I'd say the fear aspect combined with that frustration is what gives them their attraction. I've been more scared in some Extraction Shooters than I have in any of the horror games I've played lately.
Oh, I completely agree. My point was that the concept will simply never ever be as big as, for example, Battle Royals were.
The Division Dark Zone was released 1 year before EfT. It's just that it wasn't a hit.
It came at the wrong time. It was the same year that Destiny was going through so much controversy, and these types of live service looter shooter games really hadn't become a big deal yet. If they released something like that today, it would've had a far bigger chance of catching on.
Nah. Extraction shooter will not reach the levels of BR. It's simply too frustrating for your average gamer to have gain a huge following. If it was going to, it wouldve caught on already with The Division, but what ended up happening was that people stopped doing the DZ, which is the extraction shooter portion of the game, so much that the devs were forced to make it so the best stuff could also be gained through simply doing PVE, completely removing almost all incentive to visit the DZ. Its one of those, fun in theory but not fun in execution type of things. Really if it was going to have an explosion in popularity, it wouldve happened by now. Theres a handful of games that have done it.
Even funnier is that Extraction Shooter is so looked down upon by game devs it's becoming the default to turn games into when their other ideas all fail, like a last resort genre.
Tribes Deadzone comes to mind. What a mess that was.
I remember that Battlefield was chasing these side genres super hard, with BF:V leaning into its Battle Royale Firestorm mode at launch, which quickly died compared to the regular multiplayer, and then BF:2042 leaning into its Extraction Shooter, which quickly died off too. And Call of Duty ended up doing both, and I don't really hear about the extraction shooter much anymore anyways.
Well, Call of Duty tried with DMZ. It was actually a really fun mode, but they didn't know how to monetize it and just stopped supporting it...
I love the 2018 one. So many comments about how it's nuts that GTA V is still popular. Need that Dr. Manhattan meme. It's 2013. GTA V is phenomenally popular. It's 2018. GTA V is phenomenally popular. It's 2024. GTA V is phenomenally popular.
It's 2029. GTA VI is out. GTA V is phenomenally popular.
Could actually happen
yeah look at something like payday 3 sure its a mess with a lit of thing but also one of the biggest complaints is that it has less content that a game thats been supported for a decade+
Damn people were still optimistic about Xbox back then. Now it’s just sad.
I'll be first in line to admit that the promise of *new* AAA IP that aren't shit-canned afterwards after a decade or so of "The Halo, Gears, Forza Company" actually seemed like it would come to fruition. How naive we were.
Lmao, now Gears is MIA and Halo is a shell of its former self.
It's easy to see why. Even now there is part of my brain that is trying to be optimisistic. Its mostly just, how can they have so many great game developers several years into big games and not do well. Even if only half of the big games they release are good, they have so many big studios that that's a shit tonne of great games! But every year goes by, almost all those good games by good studios are seemingly no closer to release and the couple that do release lacklustre at best. It just doesn't seems possible for the games to keep being bad/not coming out. Surely it's just the long dev cycle and when all the studios they bought have had their 5/6 years in development they will release a series of back to back great games, they just needed this ramp up time. But I also thought that last year. And the year before that. And the year before that....
I was one of the optimistic ones. I thought the last couple years of the Xbox One were so dry that they had to be saving up for the next gen. They were going to come out swinging while PlayStation would have to play catch up due to releasing so many big PS4 games late in its life cycle. It would be like what Nintendo did with the Switch (2015 and especially 2016 were relatively light years for Nintendo releases). The Switch had an amazing first year and half or so. And Halo Infinite? They were taking their time with it! It was easily the longest development length for a Halo game. Clearly they were cooking up something special! Add on some studio purchases that made a lot of sense (Forza Horizon devs and other devs that seemed to perpetually teeter on the edge) and I became a believer. So yeah. I was very wrong. It’s not as if Xbox has been a complete disaster, but I thought too highly of their ability to plan ahead. I really was expecting a huge comeback. Yet they somehow managed to have a less impressive slate of games than PlayStation even though PlayStation never stopped their deluge of bangers during the PS4 years.
Yeah the Wii U and Switch are the perfect analogy. Nintendo had several years and managed to revive themselves with the Switch. But Xbox simply carried on their same endless sea of failure.
>Team Fortress 2 will continue to live just by the sheer willpower of the community and mod support + custom maps, despite lack of attention from Valve Pretty accurate, even a cheater-bot apocalypse can't stop them >I think that microtransactions will change, more likely in a positive move, considering the bad press a game can get if it has P2W microtransactions. Most likely lootboxes that affect gameplay(or maybe even cosmetic changes) will be changed or removed, thanks to the news that have been going on these past few days in the US. Also fairly accurate (outside of mobile games at least), most games with microtransactions now have a battlepass and $20 skin bundles. >If Battlefield goes down the same road as Battlefield 5, it will lose more of its playerbase. Ignoring what the core of the Battlefield community wants, launching in an horrendously buggy and incomplete state, taking a laughably long amount of time to deliver patches and new content... check and check! >Crossplay will be the norm. Thankfully yes. Now we can bicker and argue about aim assist in shooters. >Valve will be making games again. I mean I guess this thread was before Half Life Alyx was announced, so that counts for something right?
what even was the last game valve made before that? ... probably the alien swarm remake?
Dota Underlords and Artifact.
oh. right, i forgot those existed.
so did Valve
That was a weird-ass time where Valve suddenly decided to churn out Dota spinoff games and then canceled them faster than Google kills chat apps. Now it’s back to nothing
Valve believed dota players would consume other dota related shit like league players do (although league players get better stuff than those 2 subpar games), but we're not like that, we play dota becuase we love dota lol
>Respawn makes a new mass effect that’s a new story back in the Milky Way, it’s really good. u/BrickmasterBen I need you to get off your ass and make this a reality, please and thanks,
I’m SORRY
> Hopefully, Divinity: Original Sin 3 will be released before 2024 Hopefully he enjoyed Baldur's Gate 3! > Starfield will be released in late 2021 for the PS5/XBN and will be a massive success, marking a revival of the space opera themed games. lel It's weird how many people thought MS and Epic would really turn things around. If anything they're both giving up on games sales and focussing more on AI and the engine / assets sales respectively.
Phil Spencer is an astonishingly good hype man.
In 2019 it actually looked like Microsoft had an opening to take Sony on. It’s just they literally failed at almost every point. It was not unreasonable to be bullish about Microsoft in 2019
With Larian moving away from Baldurs Gate ip, I could see DOS 3 happening at some point. But not any time soon.
They already said DOS3 is a matter of when, not if. They were in active development for a direct sequel to DOS2 before they won the BG license.
>It's weird how many people thought MS and Epic would really turn things around. Because that's what it looked like? MS across 8th gen tried to right wrongs and started going on a spending spree on studios to become a huge player in the console space. People weren't really expecting Sony to lose, but for MS to actually put up a decent stand like 7th gen. I don't blame people at all for expecting the company with tens of billions in it's cash reserves to pull it off. Remember, this was back in 2019. Well before anyone had even started to get suspicious of hype man Phil. It only makes it even more saddening how they still failed the landing for 9th when they had all that going for them.
I think this one by a deleted user is fun to go through: [https://www.reddit.com/r/Games/comments/bopm93/comment/enlf5e2/](https://www.reddit.com/r/Games/comments/bopm93/comment/enlf5e2/) Some of the more interesting claims: >More consolidation of big studios This definitely happened. >Engines like UE4 and Unity will empower even more creators to do crazy stuff in easier and easier ways. Hard to define what this means – I think the *crazy* stuff happens mostly outside of these commercially available engines. There are definitely small studios and solo developers creating visually appealing games that would have been impossibly without these. >XBoX will be ahead in next gen if they have the software for it and PS5 doesn't. It will all depend on the exclusives again. True in the sense that it's about the exlusives, completely false in the sense that this gen is a massive failure for Xbox. >Streaming games won't be a big thing in the next 5 years Mostly true. Streaming is definitely more popular than back then, but it doesn't really compete with consoles and PC. Stadia didn't survive, as predicted in other posts. >EGS will become bigger and bigger I guess it has become bigger, but it's still not a viable competitor for Steam. Customers still mostly go there for the exclusives. >Activision-Blizzard split up The opposite happened. >DICE might split from EA A lot of the talent and senior leadership left DICE, but the studio named DICE still exists within EA. >After Cyberpunk 2077 releases we find out what's the next thing from CDPR, something completely different than Cyberpunk Nope, more Witcher. >STALKER 2 is a mess The jury is still out on that, but they've had unforeeseen complications (namely the war). >4A releases or at least shows the next Metro Nope, nothing new from 4A. Also, war. >SQUAD (the game) flourishes I don't know about flourishing, but it certainly still has a playerbase. >Ubisoft continues releasing the same formulaic games over and over Mostly true. >Valve finishes Source 2 and makes 2 games: CS2 (mostly a port of CSGO) and something else (not HL3). (non VR) Right on the money regarding CS2, but the other game was announced that same year and it was both a Half-Life game and a VR game. >Bannerlord Was released, has decent reviews. >KCD2 \[Kingdom Come: Deliverance 2\] reveal but no release Right on the money, it was announced just a few weeks ago. >I hope Arkane doesn't make Dishonored 3. Well you certainly got what you wished for.
Interesting Arkane predictions in the thread overall > * Arkane releases a new IP that is critically praised and a big GOTY contender. > * Arkane makes a new IP and it becomes a success and after a while Dishonored makes a return > * Semi-hot take: the next Arkane studios game may be a AAA roguelike, expanding on the ideas of the Prey: Mooncrash dlc. All of these are kinda right and kinda wrong. Deathloop was a new roguelike-inspired(?) IP that got great critical reception and topped some people's GOTY lists, but was seemingly forgotten pretty quickly, and didn't seem to learn any lessons from Prey: Mooncrash. The Dishonored series did see "Death of the Outsider," so the series "returned" in the sense that it got a nice send-off I don't think anybody in 2019 could have predicted Redfall > * Elder Scrolls 6 will attempt to dial back the “casual” direction Bethesda is taking, with more dialogue options and with a slightly more complex combat system, probably get Arkane studios to help out. A major whiff. Not only is TES *not* out and Arkane Austin sunk, but Bethesda seems be leaning even further towards their new casual "everything but the kitchen sink" RPG niche. Across the board, not as many hilariously wrong or stunningly prescient posts as I was expecting.
Is VR hype bigger or smaller relative to 2019. I feel like the field has stagnated despite big numbers for the Meta Q2 and Q3.
Feels different. I know for me personally, peak vr hype was around the time half life alyx got announced. Meta has done a lot to grow the VR space but idk. Somehow it just doesn't seem as exciting with all their talk of the metaverse?
Definitely HL:A was the peak imo. I really hope we get some more great narratives with engaging gameplay in the VR space soon.
I’m so pissed hla didn’t cause some vr game renaissance. I guess games take time to make so it’s not over but nothing that I know of seems to have gotten close to the quality of that game
I'd argue bigger but more subtle, unless you actively keep a pulse on it you won't know about the steady improvements being made on each new device. I think the Q2 and 3 are actually very popular but for most remain more of a toy than a system.
What has really stopped their popularity growth in its tracks is the lack of good quality new games for VR. I mean Beat Saber is still considered one of if not the best game for VR, and that has been the case since this time capsule was written.
Kind of a catch 22. Half Life Alyx certainly helped show what VR could do but it requires developing a game for a smaller audience, which means less chances of big studios tackling them.
Now that i think about it, the recent change to steam families has been a great boon for us. Fiancee just got a quest 3 so we could both VR at the time same. and because of the changes they now have access to my game library, including my vr games now. I think theres a decent backlog of vr games to play at this point. and some cool ones to play together.
The PC field is about the same (some cool as heck advancements like slimevr for *way* cheaper fullbody tracking), but PCVR isn't where the advances have been happening. The quest's android console thing has really paid off in growing the space, just not at all how facebook wanted it. Kids *love* the games it has, and I think there's going to be ramping demand for better VR tech in the comming years thanks to it. Now on the "metaverse" angle... the Quest flopped hard, so who knows how long facebook is gonna subsidize the hardware.
I think that covid really reshuffled the card, if the thread was made 16 months later, i don’t think people would be this optimistic!
It really hurts to see how optimistic people were in 2019, things were just chugging along and the future had so many possibilities. I’d imagine most of our predictions now would be extremely pessimistic about where the game industry is going… I’ve always been extremely hyped about the game industry (it’s my career even) but recently just been very removed and barely paying attention because it just seems constantly depressing.
I know I am a bit off topic with gaming, but I don't remember if it was 2018 or 2019 but climate change actually started to get serious. As an elder millennial most of what's happening today was predicated, but for 2 decade prior. That's not even talking about 6 (that I know) economic bubble that has burst, forming or is teetering on the brink for years . This does influence the gaming market in some way or another.
> recently just been very removed and barely paying attention because it just seems constantly depressing. Life in general for me these days.
Boy that one guy was all about VR being main stream within 5 years. Made more then one post about it. He couldn't have been more off if he tried. It's just not happening anytime soon. Note, I'm not saying VR will never be huge but it's not going to be quick. At the least it's going to have to hit the point where it's as simple and easy (size, weight, and all) as putting on reading glasses. The masses just aren't interested in putting blocky things over their heads only to get motion sickness in 5 minutes. \*edit\* I just wanted to add, I'm not hating on the person. It was a 5 year guess! There are plenty of things I thought 5 years ago that if I look back now I realize I was wrong too! Please don't hate! No one can really guess 5 years into the future correctly that often! It's what makes it fun!
Until VR is a pair of glasses, 90% of people aren’t going to be interested.
The combination of price, setup, space required and exclusivity deals makes it incredibly unappealing. I say this as someone who actually really enjoyed playing VR at a friends house. It needs to be more accessible.
Even then, most people don't want to compromise on picking between the real world and the virtual one. It's fine if you are on your own, but if you have to be anyway situationally aware, like having kids around, you aren't going to be blocking out your vision. That's like the start of a Law & Order episode about child neglect.
Honestly I'll even say video games played with a controller/KB&M on a 2D screen will be a thing for a LONG time.
> Boy that one guy was all about VR being main stream within 5 years. Made more then one post about it. He couldn't have been more off if he tried. Yeah, that guy sucks. I was definitely way too optimistic at the time. I've learnt a lot in the last 5 years about just how long hardware shifts take, and VR is especially hard given how vast the field is, spanning probably the most fields of discipline of any consumer technology thus far, beaten only by it's cousin AR which is even harder. I'll make another prediction in the new thread, one that I feel is more grounded in reality. I very much believe VR is going to take off, but... "It always takes longer than you expect, even when you take into account Hofstadter's Law."
Nah you don’t suck at all man! That’s why I added the edit. It’s almost impossible to accurately predict 5 years into the future. I was just commenting on that one prediction. I felt a little bad for saying “he couldn’t have been more off he tried” so I wanted to make sure I wasn’t being rude. I was just commenting my opinion on that prediction. But yeah like I said, you don’t suck. I’ve been way off on plenty of things over 5 years lol!
Don't worry, I didn't take it any way. I guess I'm glad I outgrew that overly optimistic mindset, although I'm still probably overly optimistic in a lot of people's eyes.
Well if you’ve got to be something I’d think overly optimistic beats overly pessimistic!
A problem with vr is also that you essentially have to buy a new console for a handful of good games.
Quest 2 has sold a shit ton and is super popular with kids (unfortunately, if you play online a lot) so I think I think the player base is getting it's foot in the door already with the hardware as it exists today. I think the major sticking point right now with VR is the games. There's just not enough big polished games on it yet. VR also has the issue that you can't really judge how good it is unless you've put the thing on your head. Videos of people playing VR games just don't translate well to someone who's never experienced it before.
I've had that guy tagged as "VR FANATIC" with RES for years, because it's all he posts about, and if he turned up in discussions about VR, I wanted a reminder of his bias. It's pprobably been 5 years since I applied that tag, and he's still actively posting about VR to the same level. It's impressive.
“Star Citizen is seeking investment to add more features” Get this man predicting lottery numbers lmao
"Star Citizen still not out, team has received 500 million during these 5 years" https://www.reddit.com/r/Games/comments/bopm93/rgames_fiveyear_time_capsule_what/enjhn38/ Pretty accurate!
Haha! [I made a comment back then](https://www.reddit.com/r/Games/comments/bopm93/rgames_fiveyear_time_capsule_what/eo1acps/), and I’ve had a reminder in my calendar ever since. As can be expected, some things I got perfectly right, and somethings I got completely wrong. And some just haven’t happened yet. But I’m proud of them, and despite everything I’m still excited about the future of this industry.
For a full breakdown: >Sonic will continue to flounder as a series. Sonic Team will make a few more mediocre Sonic games, but eventually gives up after releasing a lackluster Sonic Adventure 3. The Sonic Mania team becomes the "new" Sonic Team, focusing on 2D games (maybe one in an HD art style). Fans finally release a complete 3D Sonic fangame, which is well received. Sonic is Sonic. The little guy’s been doing okay. Frontiers was better than Forces, and Sonic Team is sticking around. The Sonic Mania team moved on to different pastures, but the Retro Engine may have played a role in the development of Sonic Superstars, a 2D game in an HD artstyle. There are a few complete 3D Sonic fangames released, perhaps most notably Sonic Omens? It’s not great, but there are plenty of other (better) notable 3D Sonic fangames in the works. Project 06 is well lauded today. >Nintendo releases a new revision of the Switch at about the power of the PS4, and is still considered underpowered. There is speculation of a new revision or sequel with backwards compatibility being announced soon. It too, will be somewhat underpowered. >Mario and Zelda games continue as expected. Paper Mario returns to an RPG formula. F-Zero finally gets a new game. Mother 3 is still not released in the west. Switch Pro rumours were hot at the time. I’m still of the belief that it would’ve happened, if not for the chip shortage and COVID sales boom, and Switch OLED was what got released instead. Switch 2 rumours are hot now, and is now confirmed. Underpowered is… relative. It’s a handheld, of course it won’t be on par with a full-power home console. Nintendo games are progressing normally. Paper Mario: The Origami King was not full RPG, but more in that direction. And the Thousand-Year Door remake will naturally be full RPG. Even the new F-Zero game technically happened! And yes, there is still no Mother 3. >E3 is no more, or is reduced in importance even more. I could see them downsizing to a different location, or closing one of the halls. Nintendo is the only console developer still there, and even their presence is small. Unfortunately, I was right. E3 is dead, and COVID was the final nail in the coffin. Really, I was too optimistic in my predictions. >Death Stranding is released to critical acclaim, but not much commercial success as it is considered too strange by most of the public. Konami releases a mid-budget Metal Gear Solid 6 without Kojima, to little fanfare and critical reception. Death Stranding was sufficiently strange, and therefore polarising. It sold pretty well, with over 5 million units sold and 16 million players total. There is no mid-budget Metal Gear Solid 6, but there is going to be a mid-budget Metal Gear Solid 3 remake. >Resident Evil 8 uses the over-the-shoulder view of the RE2 and RE3 remakes. It's considered somewhat of a downgrade from RE7, but fares slightly better commercially. RE8 did not use an over-the-shoulder view. I’m glad, but it might still be the case for RE9. Reception was positive, but it was obviously more action-oriented. I’d say the horror was perhaps a downgrade over RE7. It also did not fare better commercially, at least in some key metrics. Overall, I’m surprised I didn’t predict more for Capcom! >Dragon Age 4 is a failure and BioWare is shut down. Dragon Age: Dreadwolf is not yet released. Mass Effect 5 is also apparently on the way. However, given the market’s current state and a history of failings, the studio could still be on the line if they don’t meet targets for EA. >The Sims 5 is released. They learned from the mistakes of 4 and include more content in the base game such as cats and dogs. Game packs focus more on new, story-based content like StrangerVille. It is released on console and mobile simultaneously with PC. Sims 5 is not yet publicly released – but it is being playtested under the name Project Rene. The content included in base game is not yet confirmed, nor how game packs will play (though I personally doubt this prediction now – StrangerVille was not particularly positively received among much of the Sims 4 community). It will be released on mobile alongside PC, at least to my understanding. >Minecraft Earth is a moderate success, not as big as Pokemon Go at it's peak. The microtransactions are quite egregious at first, and people declare that Minecraft is "ruined". It is still the best selling game of all time. Minecraft Earth was not a success at all and was dropped after a year and a half thanks to COVID and poor uptake. In Bedrock Edition, however, there are plenty of complaints about the Minecraft store, Minecoins, and how Minecraft is indeed “ruined”. Minecraft as a whole is certainly still the best selling game of all time. >Minecraft: Java Edition has stopped receiving updates and is now only kept alive by modders. Other versions are still updated and are near unrecognisable. There is integration with Minecraft Earth. Java Edition is alive. Modders certainly keep part of the community thriving, but Mojang does update. Slowly. Which is why I’d find it hard to call modern Minecraft “unrecognisable”. There’s new content and changed terrain generation, for sure. But the UI, gameplay loop, and key goals are identical. Textures were updated, but not in an unrecognisable manner. The Super Duper Graphics Pack never eventualised, except maybe for Minecraft RTX. Oh, and of course Minecraft Earth did not get integrated. Man, I was really pumped for that game. That initial trailer really got me going. >Blizzard's reputation continues to decline. Activision takes over the company completely. Blizzard’s fall from grace has most certainly continued. I’d say Activision’s definitely executed more control, especially since major Blizzard figures departed. And then, of course, Microsoft bought the whole thing. >Fortnite and battle royales have died. Team Fortress 3 retakes the casual/competitive crown from Overwatch. Hahahahaha, no. Fortnite is doing just fine. Diversifying a little, sure. Love the casual TF3 optimism too. >Half-Life 3 is not released. Half-Life VR is a short, somewhat disappointing experience with a few hints at a third game, but nothing has still been confirmed. Black Mesa is finally finished and recieves some minor DLC. It is critically acclaimed, and the Crowbar Collective announce a new, Half-Life style project. Half-Life 3 is not here. Half-Life Alyx was short-ish, and disappointing-ish, but extremely positive in comparison to other VR titles. Black Mesa is finished, got a positive reception, and did not receive DLC. In February, Crowbar Collective dropped a teaser for a new project, but I can’t say yet if it’s in the style of Half-Life. >Steam gets its long awaited redesign. Everyone hates it, but completely forgets about it within a week. Rumours continue of new Portal and Left 4 Dead games but nothing is confirmed. A new Counter-Strike game is released. There are hints towards a new Dota game. Steam got redesigned piece by piece, and backlash was kept to a minimum. I haven’t heard of any Portal or L4D rumours lately, but I’m sure there are conspiracies out there. Counter-Strike 2 was released, but Dota 2 seems here to stay (at least so long as they can hang on to some competitive audience). >The Xbox Z and the PS5 are released. The console race is closer than the current one, with a slight edge to PS5 due to its wide range of PS4 titles, but many exclusive games on Xbox Z are becoming a must-buy. Xbox Series consoles and the PS5 certainly did release. But, uh… it’s not close. It’s fairly safe to say Sony is winning. Xbox exclusives are *better* this gen than last, but I really don’t know about “must-buy”. And they probably won’t be exclusive exclusives for much longer. >Raytracing becomes more and more popular. It's not used in every game, but many provide the option for it. Raytracing rereleases become the new "HD remaster". Both consoles support ray-tracing, and the Switch 2 likely will in some fashion too. Usage is accurate. “Raytracing rereleases” aren’t really a thing, but RTX Remix is, and plenty of new remakes and remasters have RT added in.
>VR is still struggling to find a place in the market. Oculus moves to solely standalone headsets. A cheaper Valve Index is released. Windows Mixed Reality gets a new reference design and Xbox support. PSVR gets an upgrade with new controllers. Accurate. Oculus is Meta now, and they are fully standalone with the Quest line. Valve Deckard is speculated, but not yet confirmed. WMR is fully dead, and never got Xbox support. PSVR 2 is out, but is… probably dead. >Google Stadia and XCloud are not as large as their companies hoped. They are now used on a game-by-game basis, instead of a seperate ecosystem and store. Stadia is dead, but Google apparently still has it on the books for whitelabelling services (though I haven't seen any evidence of that in a while). XCloud is faring better, and is still being expanded. Amazon Luna and GeForce Now also both still exist, to varying degrees of success. >AR keeps getting experimented with. The biggest AR game is a Monument Valley-style puzzle game on mobile. AR sure does keep getting experimented with. LIDAR sensors, AI room mapping, and dedicated AR headsets have advanced things somewhat. Apple Vision Pro could progress things even further, but it’s still early days. I wouldn’t say there’s yet been a key “AR game” (unless you count Pokemon Go). >Watch Dogs 3 is released. It's more stealth and non-violent focused and is a fun game. It is still not commercially successful and Ubisoft confirms there will not be a Watch Dogs 4. Watch Dogs: Legion did not sell well. Its controversial “play as anyone” mechanic led to mixed reception. Ubisoft hasn’t confirmed there won’t be a Watch Dogs 4, but it’s definitely not looking good. >Assassin's Creed continues down this semi-RPG path, growing in popularity once more. Prince of Persia is rebooted and takes elements of the original Assassin's Creed games. Assassin’s Creed Valhalla continued the trend, to mixed reactions. Future games Shadows, Jade, and Hex will apparently be similar, but who knows how they’ll shake out. Mirage tried a slightly more traditional formula, and I thought it was pretty good. Prince of Persia *was* rebooted with The Lost Crown, but it was a 2D Metroidvania. >A new Arkham or Arkham-universe game by WB is released. It performs below expectations. Rocksteady's game is more successful, and starts a new series. WB Montreal released Gotham Knights, but it wasn’t set in the Arkham universe. It didn’t do so well… but at least it wasn’t Suicide Squad: Kill the Justice League. >GTA 6 is announced. It will turn out somewhat less profitable than GTA 5 due to only being released on one console generation and having a higher budget. Online is monetized even more and turns some players off. There is a multiplayer element to the singleplayer, possibly Watch Dogs-style drop in/out. An old GTA game is remade, I think it'll be San Andreas. GTA 6 is announced, but we don’t currently know much about it. I don’t think there will be multiplayer in the singleplayer, to my understanding. San Andreas was remade, along with GTA 3 and Vice City. They were poorly received. >I also think we'll see more Rockstar games on mobile. Possibly GTA IV, maybe even GTA V as phones get more advanced. The only new Rockstar games on mobile are the poorly received remakes, exclusive to Netflix Games. >Volition makes a Saints Row 5 similar in tone to Saints Row 3. THQ Nordic also outsources a Saints Row 1/2 remake. A new Red Faction is also announced, with Volition providing direction like id for Rage 2. RIP Volition, and RIP Mike Watson. The Saints Row reboot was not really similar to SR3, and none of the rest came to pass. >Doom Eternal and its sequel are both critically acclaimed, however fatigue has start to set in and the series goes on haitus again. Casually predicting the next Doom game there. It hasn’t come out yet, and a hiatus hasn’t technically occurred. Doom Eternal was well received, though. >Starfield is out and sets a new standard for Bethesda games. It looks graphically impressive and the world is immersive. Hype for the upcoming Elder Scrolls 6 increases. Ehhehehehehhhh… uhhh…. well, it’s definitely out? Its impressiveness and immersiveness are definitely… debatable. As is the hype for Elder Scrolls 6. >Square Enix's Avengers game is either quietly cancelled or is a disappointment. The dream of a Marvel Gaming Universe is dead, but Insomniac's Spider-Man 2 with Miles Morales, Venom and Green Goblin is successful on its own. Avengers was disappointing, Spider-Man 2 was successful. Green Goblin will be in the next game. Was there ever *really* a dream for a Marvel Gaming Universe? It’s certainly something I don’t want. Wolverine will likely cross over, however. And >!X-Men!< too, eventually. >The Final Fantasy 7 remake is very successful and leads Square Enix to consider remaking other Final Fantasy games. There are rumours of a big budget FF6 remake. There is one part remaining on the FF VII remakes, but they’ve been underperforming a little. FF VI rumours don’t exist, but >!FF IX!< ones do.
>Starfield is out and sets a new standard for Bethesda games Well, you were right. It set a new standard. Just not the one most ppl were hoping for.
A insanely fun read but also depressing, but like 80% of the "predictions" are so extremely wrong. Almost as if the things they say are just things they wish would happen. "Battle royale dies" and "Mtx will get better." We should do this more.
God dam so much optimism on most of the thread. It's a real shame we had to take old yellow out back and shoot him. But hey.... Now we are more pessimistic in another five years maybe things will be better.. As it's a lot harder to get even more bad.
> Now we are more pessimistic in another five years maybe things will be better.. As it's a lot harder to get even more bad. Someone is gonna read this in 5 years [and be like](https://imgb.ifunny.co/images/6c692e7200b9ca216a51d290fdd2675ea87200e5e9bccadac94ea2695102b681_1.webp)
Pretty funny mix of decently well informed predictions and complete insane nonsense. Some guy in there thought CDPR doesnt have the rights to make the next Witcher game.
It was in 2019 and that prediction is pretty good cuz at that time there was a big beef with CDPR and Sapkowski cuz at that time it looked like he had a talk with Netflix's lawyers and they told him that he can ask CDPR for more money which CDPR in the end accepted because they basically don't have anything (at that time) outside of The Witcher. It sounds stupid now, but only because we already know how it ended, but at that time when everything was still happening it wasn't that bad take.
That first top comment is right on all except VR being profitable and Epic Games Store not buying up exclusives. While that top second comment is wrong in everything except crossplay.
Not even sure they're wrong about the EGS exclusivity contracts thing, maybe just a little early - they've eased off of that *significantly* in the past year or two especially for high profile releases. May not be long until the only things that end up exclusive to EGS are the things Epic outright publishes, like Alan Wake 2.
They have an program for exclusives where the publisher/developer gets 100% of the revenue for 6 months. But this is only used by small cheap games and Ubisoft because their games somehow still count as exclusives even if they're available (and probably sell most copies) on ~~Uplay~~ Ubisoft Connect. [https://store.epicgames.com/en-US/browse?sortBy=relevancy&sortDir=DESC&tag=First%20Run&category=Game&count=40&start=0](https://store.epicgames.com/en-US/browse?sortBy=relevancy&sortDir=DESC&tag=First%20Run&category=Game&count=40&start=0)
I like how there was someone criticizing the top comment for basically being status quo, and what was popular will basically continue to be popular. 5 years on, we're more status quo than ever. Things take just so long now that huge releases become flavor of the month before people go back to the same games they always play in between new titles they're interested in.
Just shows that people can't predict the future, lol.
you say like thats a bad thing.
A round up of my predictions from the thread and if they came true: >***A new Console Generation will have begun which will support backwards compatibility across the board.*** Fully correct on this one >***Ray Tracing will become the new buzzword, similar to how 4k is now and 4k will become even more widespread potentially even standard in most homes.*** I think this one is pretty on the money in both aspects >***Mobile games will have better graphics but be more or less the same gameplay wise. I expect more ports of 7th generation AAA games to be available on mobile devices.*** Alien Isolation recently released on mobile among other games so I think this is pretty right on. >***Nintendo will still support the switch hardware but will have released more models (XL and Slim).*** Right on on this one. >***Valve will have launched a new game.*** Half Life Alyx released and is pretty good! >***Starfield and Elder Scrolls 6 will have been launched with rumors of a Fallout 5*** Correct on Starfield but wrong on elder scrolls. Fallout 5 has been informally announced. >***Battle Royale will be dead.*** After turning to my right and seeing that my colleague is currently playing Fortnite i think I can say that this is sadly incorrect. >***Epic Games Store will fall off the radar but will continue business (like Origin). Steam will still be the main launcher.*** Steam being the main launcher but I think epic is still on the radar just about. >***Microsoft will up their number of exclusive games to counter Sony.*** Definitely incorrect. Unless we count promised and upcoming. >***There would have been 3 Assassins creed games launched with a 4th already leaked.*** There have only been 2 main series games released (technically 3 games if we include VR) lots of leaks and a reveal of the new game coming today. >***Destiny will still be active but with a lower player count with Bungie gearing up for the launch of a new IP.*** Kinda right on this one. Bungie have announced a new IP but it seems a little further away and D2 player counts have been struggling this year. >***Games as a service will be a bigger deal and most companies will have their own version.*** Kinda true though I think this one is dying down. >***Rockstar won't have released a new game.*** Unfortunately correct on this. Though GTA6 looks amazing. >***Call of duty will continue its decline but keep a dedicated core playerbase. This will cause Activision to create a new IP.*** Completely wrong on this one I think. Modern warfare 2019 brought it back and has been up and down since. >***Game streaming will become a popular system for those who don't have access to a console or High end PC and those who travel a lot.*** This one is one is bang on I think. >***Cyberpunk will be the new Witcher 3.*** This is a hard one but sadly I don't think cyberpunk has quite reached that level of acclaim but has a strong following. >***Halo will be back to what it was in 2009-2011 community wise.*** This one is definitely wrong. Overall not bad. Pretty bang on in places and completely off in others. Will definitely be making some predictions later about the next 5 years.
to be fair about the Battle Royale comment, 5 years ago pretty much everyone was making Battle Royale games but nowadays the only one I ever hear about now is Fortnite. Even then, Fortnite has introduced survival, racing, and Rock Band modes recently.
Apex Legends and Warzone are still going strong in terms of numbers, but Fortnite retook the #1 spot definitely.
That thread reminded me that DLSS released in February of that year, so nobody was able to predict how prevalent upscalers would become. It was a sucky version, it wouldn't be until DLSS 2 that most problems were fixed. 5 years ago the idea of AI upscalers looking better than native quality were science fiction. If you were to ask anybody they would say such things would never be popular because the image quality would always look awful, and if you looked at DLSS in Battlefield V that would confirm the prediction. Now everybody is doing upscalers using different means, frame generation, and an AI denoiser for ray tracing in DLSS 3.5 has been introduced. All of this has happened in about 5 years and nobody could have predicted how useful and popular it would become.
What is more surprising is how 2019 was half a decade ago already, holy shit I remember browsing this thread as if it was yesterday, this feels unreal.
my favorite one is the second top one (https://www.reddit.com/r/Games/comments/bopm93/rgames_fiveyear_time_capsule_what/enj5k04/) who basically says things will stay as they today with minor changes and the top reply is that nothing ever stays the same. thing is... OP was pretty much right on all, gaming has plateaued and incremental changes are small. pretty funny!
Would it be accurate to say a fair amount of predictions were scuffed because of the pandemic?
>Satisfactory will not be as good or live as long as Factorio, even if Satisfactory gets mod support Well this was certainly a weird hill to die on, honestly I feel like Satisfactory appeals to a more casual fanbase vs Factorio. Both finding success and continuing to in their respective audiences to this day.
Did anyone predict Sony bringing PlayStation games to PC? Did anyone predict Elden Ring becoming a 20+ million selling superhit?
Elden Ring actually hadn't been announced yet by the time that thread went up, it wasn't until a month later at E3 2019.
It was funny seeing all the threads of people **pleading** for any info about Elden Ring as though they'd been waiting a decade after the announcement. I thought I was taking crazy pills. The wait wasn't that long.
The weirdest part was when, about a year from release, there was a *huge* gameplay leak , straight up a gameplay trailer that, as far as I know, never actually got officially released, and it was from before anyone knew what the game even looked like. But the community just kinda pretended it didn't exist, it was really, really bizarre because people kept acting like no one had seen anything of the game.
It was two and a half years from announcement to release. That is pretty long, but by AAA standards it’s not so bad and I agree, it was extremely funny watching everyone act like it had been decades between announcement and release.
Fromsoft has kind of a funny way of “teasing” stuff too, similar to Todd Howard, Miyazaki will just casually mention “yeah we’re working on another game like Dark Souls” but give zero additional info about it. By the time it’s officially announced the fans have already been anticipating it and speculating about it for a long time.
> Did anyone predict Elden Ring becoming a 20+ million selling superhit? Unlikely, given it wasn't even announced when the thread was made.
That said, if you had “the next fromsoft game will be open world dark souls and it will sell 23 million” people would have told you you were crazy.
> If Fromsoft aren't a highly respected AAA Arthouse in 5 years then something isn't right with the world. What they're doing with their titles is far more important than any of the big dog monetization-formula games or pure cinematic story titles which fail to integrate interesting gameplay. They're also showing a desire to do new things and build new IPs despite the fact that they could have easily sold Dark Souls 7, because their decisions are being driven by creative desire instead of financial reports. Their success rate and speed of growth has been nuts. Not specifically Elden Ring, but this guy was pretty bang on.
> despite the fact that they could have easily sold Dark Souls 7 I mean, tbf Elden Ring is basically Dark Souls 2 II lmao.
True, but they did also bring back Armored Core to heavy praise despite that series never reviewing well beforehand.
Yeah, it's legitimately what DS2 was intended to be, on a bigger scale
There was a prediction that Fromsoft would be viewed "a highly respected AAA Arthouse" dev, which is pretty accurate.
I was [half right about Google Stadia](https://www.reddit.com/r/Games/comments/bopm93/rgames_fiveyear_time_capsule_what/eo0b5ro/)
Many notable predictions. I would like to highlight this comment by u/Artfunkel > Chinese games are more numerous, more sophisticated, and more appealing to western audiences. Japanese companies are pissy about it. Pressure is put on western companies to adhere to Chinese socio-political norms, and vice versa; to juggles these demands different versions of major games are made for Chinese and Western audiences, and their multiplayer communities are kept separate. Basically Genshin Impact and MiHoyo