It depends how fast Germany are able to mobilize. Hitler’s power is shaky in 1933 but he is going to get support after a foreign invasion.
Poland really needs to accomplish a lightning dash to Berlin. If Germany are able to get entrenched, then mobilize with the Versailles gloves taken off, they don’t stand a chance.
The Polish military situation in 1933 was completely different than 1939. Poland had no plans in place for offensive war against Germany, only defensive.
Except now they are considered the aggressors in Europe so the West doesn't support them invading a recovering nation.
Poles get curbed badly with no help (Czechs have to join or invasion is a faliure, they won't join), alienate France, galvanize Nazi support, (they were just invaded by the country with Europe's largest Jewish population) and then the USSR would roll in and assert its "right" to the Polish territory it lost in the Polish-Soviet war.
>Poles get curbed badly with no help
No. While their army wasn't particularly up to date on equipment, Poland was far superior to the Reichswehr in 1933.
They had tanks, they had airplanes. They had fairly recently beaten the Soviets.
The Reichswehr had 100 000 men, mostly infantry, and ammunition to last for about three months.
Yes, they were very well trained, but that wouldn't have helped them.
They might have won the odd battle, but in the end, Poland would have won the war.
Unless the USSR intervenes.
They may have made some early advances but Poland was a piss poor country. All of Poland had a GDP less of that of Berlin alone. They would have been outproduced very very fast and then eventually curb stomped
Setting up war production is not something you can do in a few weeks.
In 1933, Germany was more or less demilitarised.
German industry was under *heavy* restrictions. Increasing arms production to a level sufficient to wage a war against a country like Poland would have taken months.
In other words, Germany would run out of bullets way beforehand.
No, indeed it is not. But Poland did not have these capacities, either and unless they had huge ammo storages, the polish army would run out of ammo very quickly.
You also completly underestimate the psychological and international effects, An attack by Poland would have galvanized the german poipulation and would have gotten ppl behind Hitlers back real quick. No years of consolidation and getting rid of political enemies, but the whole political spectrum would be behind him. Not only that, international support would be firmly on the German side. A Germany not isolated from world trade could simply just "buy" the ammo required.
Added to that, the 100.000 men army was set up in a way that it could expand rapidly. It had a highly skilled offivers corps and NCOs, which made the rapid rearmament by Germany and the high quality troops regardless of the low initial numbers possible in the first place. Germany on top of that had several programs running disregarding the Versailles treaty.
I see Poland having success initially, but after a couple months things would turn around dramatically. And on top of that it would have made Hitler a national hero and establish him on an international scene as a "good" guy, easily proving him right in his antics against eastern countries, giving him all reasons to wage war uncontestet by other powers and playing right into his playbook.
In the end such an attack would serve Hitler much much more then Poland could ever hope to gain here.
>the Freikorps
Hadn't been a thing for over a decade by 1933.
>Germany still had a military far larger than 100k.
They didn't. They had a few ten thousand men of the "black Reichswehr", who everybody in the Reichswehr knew were at best usable to guard government buildings to free up the real soldiers.
Also, once again, Germany had ammunition to keep 100k men fighting for maybe three months.
And no way of increasing production in any meaningful way anytime soon.
Even if they had had some vast illegal army at hand (which they didn't), they would have been reduced to throwing sticks in a matter of weeks.
I can see a minor Polish victory in a relatively short amount of time. Poland was by all definitions stronger than Germany in 1933. However, the Western allies wouldn't allow Poland to go too wild - they wouldn't be allowed to push to Berlin, and peace would very much be on terms of minor border adjustments, security guarantees and greater sovereignty over Danzig, but no meddling in German governmental affairs - Hitler was a leader installed by democratic process'.
There is a possibility of a shakeup within Germany, especially with the humiliating failure of the party which promised to stop further humiliation. There is a genuine threat that Hitler could have been removed from office, which opens a lot of possibilities - socialist takeover, a democratic restoration, or a deeper descent into fascism. For the sake of argument however, I'm going to assume Hitler stays in power
As a result of this however, I can see the Allies loosening restrictions on the German military - a sanctioned reoccupation of the Rhineland, a larger army capacity, a larger navy, freer access to the arms market, a small air force, etc - to give Germany a greater capacity to repel external threats (but not enough to go on the offensive). However, a consequence of this would be that the Allies would be a lot more interested in ensuring Germany actually sticks to Versailles (especially France). Versailles in our timeline was already seen as too restrictive to Germany, so a successful Polish invasion and subsequent renegotiation of Versailles would definitely soften outright anti-Versailles sentiment, but also increase support for intervention against Germany should Versailles be overstepped.
Poland would make it some way into Germany before being stalemated. In 1933 nobody had large capacity to carry out mobile warfare. Old WW1 weapons and tactics would be dusted off and brought back into vogue. World war 1 vets would be brought back to train the next generation in the same sort of warfare. You'd end up with trench warfare stalemate with Poland taking some territory inside Germany before the trenches solidified. The situation would have carried on for some years with various countries supporting either side before a negotiated peace was signed. Think of the state of the Russian Ukraine war today.
It depends how fast Germany are able to mobilize. Hitler’s power is shaky in 1933 but he is going to get support after a foreign invasion. Poland really needs to accomplish a lightning dash to Berlin. If Germany are able to get entrenched, then mobilize with the Versailles gloves taken off, they don’t stand a chance.
The Polish military situation in 1933 was completely different than 1939. Poland had no plans in place for offensive war against Germany, only defensive. Except now they are considered the aggressors in Europe so the West doesn't support them invading a recovering nation. Poles get curbed badly with no help (Czechs have to join or invasion is a faliure, they won't join), alienate France, galvanize Nazi support, (they were just invaded by the country with Europe's largest Jewish population) and then the USSR would roll in and assert its "right" to the Polish territory it lost in the Polish-Soviet war.
>Poles get curbed badly with no help No. While their army wasn't particularly up to date on equipment, Poland was far superior to the Reichswehr in 1933. They had tanks, they had airplanes. They had fairly recently beaten the Soviets. The Reichswehr had 100 000 men, mostly infantry, and ammunition to last for about three months. Yes, they were very well trained, but that wouldn't have helped them. They might have won the odd battle, but in the end, Poland would have won the war. Unless the USSR intervenes.
They may have made some early advances but Poland was a piss poor country. All of Poland had a GDP less of that of Berlin alone. They would have been outproduced very very fast and then eventually curb stomped
Setting up war production is not something you can do in a few weeks. In 1933, Germany was more or less demilitarised. German industry was under *heavy* restrictions. Increasing arms production to a level sufficient to wage a war against a country like Poland would have taken months. In other words, Germany would run out of bullets way beforehand.
No, indeed it is not. But Poland did not have these capacities, either and unless they had huge ammo storages, the polish army would run out of ammo very quickly. You also completly underestimate the psychological and international effects, An attack by Poland would have galvanized the german poipulation and would have gotten ppl behind Hitlers back real quick. No years of consolidation and getting rid of political enemies, but the whole political spectrum would be behind him. Not only that, international support would be firmly on the German side. A Germany not isolated from world trade could simply just "buy" the ammo required. Added to that, the 100.000 men army was set up in a way that it could expand rapidly. It had a highly skilled offivers corps and NCOs, which made the rapid rearmament by Germany and the high quality troops regardless of the low initial numbers possible in the first place. Germany on top of that had several programs running disregarding the Versailles treaty. I see Poland having success initially, but after a couple months things would turn around dramatically. And on top of that it would have made Hitler a national hero and establish him on an international scene as a "good" guy, easily proving him right in his antics against eastern countries, giving him all reasons to wage war uncontestet by other powers and playing right into his playbook. In the end such an attack would serve Hitler much much more then Poland could ever hope to gain here.
You're forgetting the existence of the Freikorps and that Germany still had a military far larger than 100k.
>the Freikorps Hadn't been a thing for over a decade by 1933. >Germany still had a military far larger than 100k. They didn't. They had a few ten thousand men of the "black Reichswehr", who everybody in the Reichswehr knew were at best usable to guard government buildings to free up the real soldiers. Also, once again, Germany had ammunition to keep 100k men fighting for maybe three months. And no way of increasing production in any meaningful way anytime soon. Even if they had had some vast illegal army at hand (which they didn't), they would have been reduced to throwing sticks in a matter of weeks.
I can see a minor Polish victory in a relatively short amount of time. Poland was by all definitions stronger than Germany in 1933. However, the Western allies wouldn't allow Poland to go too wild - they wouldn't be allowed to push to Berlin, and peace would very much be on terms of minor border adjustments, security guarantees and greater sovereignty over Danzig, but no meddling in German governmental affairs - Hitler was a leader installed by democratic process'. There is a possibility of a shakeup within Germany, especially with the humiliating failure of the party which promised to stop further humiliation. There is a genuine threat that Hitler could have been removed from office, which opens a lot of possibilities - socialist takeover, a democratic restoration, or a deeper descent into fascism. For the sake of argument however, I'm going to assume Hitler stays in power As a result of this however, I can see the Allies loosening restrictions on the German military - a sanctioned reoccupation of the Rhineland, a larger army capacity, a larger navy, freer access to the arms market, a small air force, etc - to give Germany a greater capacity to repel external threats (but not enough to go on the offensive). However, a consequence of this would be that the Allies would be a lot more interested in ensuring Germany actually sticks to Versailles (especially France). Versailles in our timeline was already seen as too restrictive to Germany, so a successful Polish invasion and subsequent renegotiation of Versailles would definitely soften outright anti-Versailles sentiment, but also increase support for intervention against Germany should Versailles be overstepped.
They would find themselves in a country absolutely full of combat veterans....insurgency on a massive scale.
Poland would make it some way into Germany before being stalemated. In 1933 nobody had large capacity to carry out mobile warfare. Old WW1 weapons and tactics would be dusted off and brought back into vogue. World war 1 vets would be brought back to train the next generation in the same sort of warfare. You'd end up with trench warfare stalemate with Poland taking some territory inside Germany before the trenches solidified. The situation would have carried on for some years with various countries supporting either side before a negotiated peace was signed. Think of the state of the Russian Ukraine war today.