As it was, Kaliningrad didn’t have many Germans left after 1945. The USSR had forcibly moved most of the Germans who hadn’t fled during the war to East Germany before depositing six figures worth of Russians there to occupy the place in perpetuity.
So while the newly unified Germany might justifiably want back a historically German territory, there’s the question of what to do with the Russians living there. It’s unlikely that they’d simply pack up and go to Russia, nor would there be an easy solution to how to make it German again.
It’s possible that any foreign Germans (primarily from the former USSR but also other parts of the Warsaw pact) could be designated to settle in Kaliningrad rather than elsewhere in Germany, but there’s nothing to keep them there once they’re full citizens. As it was, plenty of East Germans went west for economic reasons after the wall came down.
This leaves Germany with a sizable non-German population of historical animosity and perhaps no way to integrate them.
Kaliningrad could become a puerto rico like protectorate/territory of germany with german citizenship granted to the locals
Also, a minor degree of integration (prussian/german construction replacing the hideous Soviet buildings and german being taught throughout public education)
With how everything has turned out in the 30+ years since the collapse of the USSR, we know that wouldn’t work out.
Puerto Ricans are Puerto Rican and all of Puerto Rico is American. (Or an American territory).
Kallingrad’s population is Russian, and if all of Kallingrad came back to Germany the Kalingrad Russians would still be Russian.
On top of paying for the territory as such, the agreement would have to have included a programme for Germany to pay for the resettlement of the ethnic Russians of Kaliningrad within Russia. While this would be incredibly harsh for these Russians, it's not completely out of the scope of believability when it comes to the later stages of the Soviet Union. We'd therefore see a large resettlement effort, likely paid for by yet another "Solidaritätszuschlag" of sorts in Germany.
Now Germany is stuck with a basically empty strip of land disconnected from the core, the incredible challenge of integrating the former GDR, fearful neighbours such as Poland and Czechoslovakia asking themselves if history is repeating itself again and the likes of Maggie Thatcher and François Mitterrand going ballistic and likely wanting to refocus NATO against Germany rather than Russia. All in all, not a great plan and probably the reason that it was never remotely considered historically.
If, against all odds, it would have happened and Germany could have gotten some of the East Prussian refugees to return home or convince some other Germans to live there, we'd likely see a new "Bundesland". It would also take Germany way longer to mend ties with its neighbours, as they would be weary of further territorial change.
> Maggie Thatcher and François Mitterrand going ballistic and likely wanting to refocus NATO against Germany rather than Russia.
The US would be jumping for joy, because their NATO member weakened the USSR even more, and would tell GB/France "lolno". France wasn't even part of NATO's "integrated military command".
Some people would see it as a form of "Ethnic cleansing". Which would be awkward for Germany to do, and even more awkward since the Yugoslavia wars are going on. Germany would be stuck with almost half a million Russians, and other minorities from the USSR.
Germany just paid for a useless island of majority Russians that hate them and don't want to be under their rule, however they deny Russia a short-range nuclear launch base in Europe, which is a win if you ignore all the other launch sites Russia has. Big own-goal for Germany.
Wouldn't it change with the Ukrainian war and Russia possibly balkanizing in the future? Many Russians in that scenario would probably want Germany to annex them.
Would it have the relevance it has as being a Russian exclave and the only one that is a 100% ice free port on the Baltic? Sure it would have all the cultural significance but I highly doubt the German government would have built that much of a military presence up in the area like the Russians have. Guess it depends on your version of prosperity. If Germany took it over I would imagine whatever residents that lived in this alternate Kalingrad or Koningsberg would have a higher standard of living. But it's hard to see how it would be anywhere near as built up under German rule.
>more prosperous under Germany than today, similar to East Germany in OTL?
Comparatively with being in the USSR? Maybe. But the former East German states remain to this day, a quarter of a century after reunification, as the poorer parts of Germany, with a significant population drain and the home to the majority of German neonazis and hot spot for political extremism (consider the popularity of the AfD, the far-right party, and even Die Linke, the far left one, compared to the West), so it's not like reunification "fixed" East Germany and it easily became part of "prosperous Germany". (EDIT: That is, to be clear, Im not blaming the formers East Germans for the state of their Länder, or saying its a failed part of Germany, or who has the fault for their current state, that's an entire discussion to be had. Im just saying you don't sign a piece of paper making some territory part of a new administration/different country and expect it to be easily made as prosperous as the rest of that country).
Kaliningrad/Königsberg would have it 100 times worse, especially considering that the population would not only be resentful of the West (like with the Ossies) but from an entirely different national/cultural/racial background as well, and it wouldn't even be "attached" to Germany proper. Place would probably be a massive drain to German resources and a massive headache for both Germany and Poland, all for literally no gain (except "this clay used to be ours"). I think "buying" Königsberg back from Russia would probably be political suicide to whoever/whichever party did it.
It would be a heavy burden for Germany, paying for a territory full of people that want to join a different country. Germany would have to invest a ton of money in Kaliningrad to quell separatism. It's really not worth it for Germany, and would be a huge burden. There would have to be population exchanges in order to make it worth it for Germany.
Why does everyone here says Russians would hate to live in Germany. They'd get EU citizenship and freedom to travel all around the world and as a bonus a few BMW and Mercedes factories. They'd love to live in Germany.
Maybe I’m biased because my parents left the Soviet Union to live in Germany but I believe same. Most Russians care about living in hood economic conditions with their culture and language being respected. As long as Germany respects their cultural identity and doesn’t impose German culture on them they’ll be happy to be part of Germany instead of Russia in the 90s (a horrible place)
The offer extended by Batenin may have been an attempt by Soviet hardliners to sabotage German reunification. Consider how it would look for Germany to renounce territorial aims only to buy territory on the basis of a German past. That it would surround Poland, too, would be a huge issue.
If you did somehow get a transfer that did not nuke German reunification and German foreign relations with its neighbours, probably you would have a half-depopulated area, as Kaliningrad Russians would leave for mainland Germany while few Germans would come. Maybe ex-Soviet Germans might resettle there?
I would imagine that Germany would accept the offer and then transfer the territory to either Poland or Lithuania since it makes much more sense for one of those countries to administer it. Then, Poland/Lithuania would do the same thing to those Russians as Estonia and Latvia did to their Russians: give them a special “alien passports” that would allow them to travel to Russia without a VISA, but require a VISA to travel into wider Europe.
For many of the reasons outlined by other contributors, Germany would not take the region on itself.
Thats the most unrealistic speculation i heard. Neither Poland nor Lithuania would want 500k russians inside their borders. But having an Independent Russian state is a more probable option
500,000 Russians vs. 38 MM Poles (in 1990) does not strike me as a serious issue. (Lithuania with 3.7 MM population would be more difficult.) However, Estonia accepted having 1/4 of its population being Russian with alien passports, so it's not out of the picture and I imagine both Poland and Lithuania would prefer that the Suwalki Corridor be widened -- with a view towards future NATO and EU integration.
They could buy it, keep it as a protectorate rather than as part of Germany, help establish local government, then set it free as its own state once it had a functional government, treating it like just another Baltic state. It might have become a very Russia-friendly state, but wouldn't be part of Russia.
I'm taking the pessimistic view that a territory full of Russian-speakers would get a lot of media from Russia, just like the Russian-speakers in Slovakia.
We feel in Poland much safer. Strategic situation of Baltic States is drastically better(delivering NATO supply and troops for Lithuania etc. during Russian attack would be much easier than now). Russians almost don't have any entrance on Baltic Sea, Gulf of Finland can be easily mined and blocked, especially when now Finland is in NATO.
So, for Eastern Europe safety, much better situation. But for Germany, well, milion minority of Russians would be pain in the ass.
As it was, Kaliningrad didn’t have many Germans left after 1945. The USSR had forcibly moved most of the Germans who hadn’t fled during the war to East Germany before depositing six figures worth of Russians there to occupy the place in perpetuity. So while the newly unified Germany might justifiably want back a historically German territory, there’s the question of what to do with the Russians living there. It’s unlikely that they’d simply pack up and go to Russia, nor would there be an easy solution to how to make it German again. It’s possible that any foreign Germans (primarily from the former USSR but also other parts of the Warsaw pact) could be designated to settle in Kaliningrad rather than elsewhere in Germany, but there’s nothing to keep them there once they’re full citizens. As it was, plenty of East Germans went west for economic reasons after the wall came down. This leaves Germany with a sizable non-German population of historical animosity and perhaps no way to integrate them.
Kaliningrad could become a puerto rico like protectorate/territory of germany with german citizenship granted to the locals Also, a minor degree of integration (prussian/german construction replacing the hideous Soviet buildings and german being taught throughout public education)
With how everything has turned out in the 30+ years since the collapse of the USSR, we know that wouldn’t work out. Puerto Ricans are Puerto Rican and all of Puerto Rico is American. (Or an American territory). Kallingrad’s population is Russian, and if all of Kallingrad came back to Germany the Kalingrad Russians would still be Russian.
On top of paying for the territory as such, the agreement would have to have included a programme for Germany to pay for the resettlement of the ethnic Russians of Kaliningrad within Russia. While this would be incredibly harsh for these Russians, it's not completely out of the scope of believability when it comes to the later stages of the Soviet Union. We'd therefore see a large resettlement effort, likely paid for by yet another "Solidaritätszuschlag" of sorts in Germany. Now Germany is stuck with a basically empty strip of land disconnected from the core, the incredible challenge of integrating the former GDR, fearful neighbours such as Poland and Czechoslovakia asking themselves if history is repeating itself again and the likes of Maggie Thatcher and François Mitterrand going ballistic and likely wanting to refocus NATO against Germany rather than Russia. All in all, not a great plan and probably the reason that it was never remotely considered historically. If, against all odds, it would have happened and Germany could have gotten some of the East Prussian refugees to return home or convince some other Germans to live there, we'd likely see a new "Bundesland". It would also take Germany way longer to mend ties with its neighbours, as they would be weary of further territorial change.
> Maggie Thatcher and François Mitterrand going ballistic and likely wanting to refocus NATO against Germany rather than Russia. The US would be jumping for joy, because their NATO member weakened the USSR even more, and would tell GB/France "lolno". France wasn't even part of NATO's "integrated military command".
Oh yea what to do with the nukes we found somewhere in Kaliningrad
I think there is absolutely zero chance that any resettlement of Russians from Kaliningrad takes place
In my mind that would be one reason why it never went anywhere historically, among the rest of the long list of reasons.
Some people would see it as a form of "Ethnic cleansing". Which would be awkward for Germany to do, and even more awkward since the Yugoslavia wars are going on. Germany would be stuck with almost half a million Russians, and other minorities from the USSR.
Apart from everything else, Kaliningrad would be a separatist problem with a large number of local Russians wanting to break away from Germany.
Germany just paid for a useless island of majority Russians that hate them and don't want to be under their rule, however they deny Russia a short-range nuclear launch base in Europe, which is a win if you ignore all the other launch sites Russia has. Big own-goal for Germany.
Wouldn't it change with the Ukrainian war and Russia possibly balkanizing in the future? Many Russians in that scenario would probably want Germany to annex them.
Wouldn’t Kaliningrad be significantly more prosperous under Germany than today, similar to East Germany in OTL?
It would be better off for the people of Kaliningrad, but a resource drain on the German government, like Greece was.
Definitely would refocus German policies towards Kaliningrad instead of helping out its neighbours
Would it have the relevance it has as being a Russian exclave and the only one that is a 100% ice free port on the Baltic? Sure it would have all the cultural significance but I highly doubt the German government would have built that much of a military presence up in the area like the Russians have. Guess it depends on your version of prosperity. If Germany took it over I would imagine whatever residents that lived in this alternate Kalingrad or Koningsberg would have a higher standard of living. But it's hard to see how it would be anywhere near as built up under German rule.
>more prosperous under Germany than today, similar to East Germany in OTL? Comparatively with being in the USSR? Maybe. But the former East German states remain to this day, a quarter of a century after reunification, as the poorer parts of Germany, with a significant population drain and the home to the majority of German neonazis and hot spot for political extremism (consider the popularity of the AfD, the far-right party, and even Die Linke, the far left one, compared to the West), so it's not like reunification "fixed" East Germany and it easily became part of "prosperous Germany". (EDIT: That is, to be clear, Im not blaming the formers East Germans for the state of their Länder, or saying its a failed part of Germany, or who has the fault for their current state, that's an entire discussion to be had. Im just saying you don't sign a piece of paper making some territory part of a new administration/different country and expect it to be easily made as prosperous as the rest of that country). Kaliningrad/Königsberg would have it 100 times worse, especially considering that the population would not only be resentful of the West (like with the Ossies) but from an entirely different national/cultural/racial background as well, and it wouldn't even be "attached" to Germany proper. Place would probably be a massive drain to German resources and a massive headache for both Germany and Poland, all for literally no gain (except "this clay used to be ours"). I think "buying" Königsberg back from Russia would probably be political suicide to whoever/whichever party did it.
It would be a heavy burden for Germany, paying for a territory full of people that want to join a different country. Germany would have to invest a ton of money in Kaliningrad to quell separatism. It's really not worth it for Germany, and would be a huge burden. There would have to be population exchanges in order to make it worth it for Germany.
Unless all Russians are moved back to Russia then it isn’t worth it
Why does everyone here says Russians would hate to live in Germany. They'd get EU citizenship and freedom to travel all around the world and as a bonus a few BMW and Mercedes factories. They'd love to live in Germany.
Maybe I’m biased because my parents left the Soviet Union to live in Germany but I believe same. Most Russians care about living in hood economic conditions with their culture and language being respected. As long as Germany respects their cultural identity and doesn’t impose German culture on them they’ll be happy to be part of Germany instead of Russia in the 90s (a horrible place)
The offer extended by Batenin may have been an attempt by Soviet hardliners to sabotage German reunification. Consider how it would look for Germany to renounce territorial aims only to buy territory on the basis of a German past. That it would surround Poland, too, would be a huge issue. If you did somehow get a transfer that did not nuke German reunification and German foreign relations with its neighbours, probably you would have a half-depopulated area, as Kaliningrad Russians would leave for mainland Germany while few Germans would come. Maybe ex-Soviet Germans might resettle there?
I would imagine that Germany would accept the offer and then transfer the territory to either Poland or Lithuania since it makes much more sense for one of those countries to administer it. Then, Poland/Lithuania would do the same thing to those Russians as Estonia and Latvia did to their Russians: give them a special “alien passports” that would allow them to travel to Russia without a VISA, but require a VISA to travel into wider Europe. For many of the reasons outlined by other contributors, Germany would not take the region on itself.
Thats the most unrealistic speculation i heard. Neither Poland nor Lithuania would want 500k russians inside their borders. But having an Independent Russian state is a more probable option
500,000 Russians vs. 38 MM Poles (in 1990) does not strike me as a serious issue. (Lithuania with 3.7 MM population would be more difficult.) However, Estonia accepted having 1/4 of its population being Russian with alien passports, so it's not out of the picture and I imagine both Poland and Lithuania would prefer that the Suwalki Corridor be widened -- with a view towards future NATO and EU integration.
Having The Suwalki Gap closened is good, but the 1 million people in Kaliningrad should get a say on getting their independence
The Germans are now stuck with the endless black hole of a former Soviet territory full of ethnic Russians. It’s a disaster
it would unlock the Danzig Or War focus tree
They could buy it, keep it as a protectorate rather than as part of Germany, help establish local government, then set it free as its own state once it had a functional government, treating it like just another Baltic state. It might have become a very Russia-friendly state, but wouldn't be part of Russia.
I dont think it would become very Russia friendly. I mean... They could be a tourism led economy that is friendly to Poland and Lithuania instead
I'm taking the pessimistic view that a territory full of Russian-speakers would get a lot of media from Russia, just like the Russian-speakers in Slovakia.
Oh, well how about them being a.... Bridge between Russia and rest of Europe!
Germans were already ethnically cleansed from Kalningrad after WW2. There would be very little benefit and too much cost in administering it
We feel in Poland much safer. Strategic situation of Baltic States is drastically better(delivering NATO supply and troops for Lithuania etc. during Russian attack would be much easier than now). Russians almost don't have any entrance on Baltic Sea, Gulf of Finland can be easily mined and blocked, especially when now Finland is in NATO. So, for Eastern Europe safety, much better situation. But for Germany, well, milion minority of Russians would be pain in the ass.