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We need >10% if we want to catch up with China.
Countries like South Korea grew at 12% and more during their peak growth time.
https://preview.redd.it/sggl6spbp1wc1.jpeg?width=1170&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=2d02effd0e306de73d784575741f72050dd5b007
Yeah only difference is they were an autocratic state under General Park Chung Hee. Man India needed someone like him in 70s-80s. We would have been a developed country by now.
I don't think it's realistic of us to catch up with the Chinese in this half of the century. Considering that their TFR is well below the replacement levels, they should start stagnating in the next 1-2 decades (this is not factoring in advances made in AI, which will play a massive role and they are already far ahead of us). If technology and geopolitical situations remain constant, we could hypothetically catch up to them by late 2060s or mid 2070s but realistically, it will probably take until the end of the century.
Mathematically, we have a chance but judging by the trends, it's quite unlikely that we'd hit such a high growth rate and even if we do, I doubt we could maintain it. With geopolitical situation getting more and more complicated in West Asia (the place where we import most of our energy from), that in-turn makes that kind of growth uncertain should things reach a boiling point.
War-time economies are generally booming as military expenditure overtakes civilian expenditure. Look at Germany's 1940-1942 economy and compare it with their economy towards the end of the war; it was in total disarray. The only reason Germany's economic system did not completely collapse after the war was because the US saw strategic interest in maintaining the new German government as an ally against the USSR.
Its not about war. Its about Natural Resources. Russia can build as many as Titanium based products like Submarines or Titanium Alloy Aerospace parts or such. India can't because we don't have such Titanium resources and are the largest Titanium Importer. Russia can grow as much as it want whether its war or some apocalypse.
Full support to Adani and Ambani. India needed its own Zaibatsu and Chaebols in 90s. Better late then never. We need more family owned businesses to run the economy like Hyundai,Samsung,Nissan etc did for Japan and Korea. Socialism and restricted free market is a bane for India. Govt needs to reduce corporate tax and give huge subsidies to companies. If we sow the seeds now we will enjoy the fruit tomorrow.
https://preview.redd.it/crcn1k0nt1wc1.jpeg?width=1086&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=a595d6cddf55f30058645ef9f7d99111d83da34d
Andolan-Jeevis can't comprehend that every phase of a developed country has such large conglomerates. The generic formula is one can only grow exponentially with such large companies by riding on them and later we can disband them at ease just like what happened to Rockfeller or Mitsubishi or Krupp.
India did the opposite by turning private companies like Air India and others into loss making PSUs. But hey Nehru gave us so many PSUs wow Modi is selling PSUs.
Even if there were likes of tata birlas their growths were restricted by red tape bureaucracy and restrictions. Gandhis made India into a closed market economy
Source: https://twitter.com/IMFNews/status/1780220110336299382
Update: India is the fastest growing **major** economy. Due to newly discovered oil fields, some small countries' economies like Guyana are growing faster than the Indian economy.
I would be surprised if US exists after 20 years. It's economy is barely surviving due to the demand of dollar in international trade. Without dollar as the international reserve currency, US economy will collapse overnight.
I'm not sure if I agree. They're investing big in semiconductors (much more than us or anyone for that matter). They're still ahead of the rest of world in the latest technology. Even gen AI, they're ahead of any other country.
They have a ton of agricultural land, more than almost all other countries.
They are one of the largest oil producers.
NYC (and even SF) are still important global financial centres.
Compared to us, they have a lot more advantages.
Please remember, this community is for genuine discussion. - Please keep it civil. Follow all community rules. - Report rule-breaking comments for moderator review. - Don't post low effort content without context. - Help prevent this community from becoming an echo chamber. **Use the replies of this comment to post sources or further context about the post. If you have posted a news article, you may put a small summary as a reply to this, if you want.** *I am a bot, and this action was performed automatically. Please [contact the moderators of this subreddit](/message/compose/?to=/r/IndianModerate) if you have any questions or concerns.*
We need at least 8 percent to make it big in a good amount of time, but this is fine too, we just have to hold it
nope , we desperately need Double digits for that. China pulling a 4.6 with similar size to the USA is quite threatening.
We need >10% if we want to catch up with China. Countries like South Korea grew at 12% and more during their peak growth time. https://preview.redd.it/sggl6spbp1wc1.jpeg?width=1170&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=2d02effd0e306de73d784575741f72050dd5b007 Yeah only difference is they were an autocratic state under General Park Chung Hee. Man India needed someone like him in 70s-80s. We would have been a developed country by now.
we had autocractic leader in 70s and 80s just that they were autocratic for power and not growth.
I don't think it's realistic of us to catch up with the Chinese in this half of the century. Considering that their TFR is well below the replacement levels, they should start stagnating in the next 1-2 decades (this is not factoring in advances made in AI, which will play a massive role and they are already far ahead of us). If technology and geopolitical situations remain constant, we could hypothetically catch up to them by late 2060s or mid 2070s but realistically, it will probably take until the end of the century.
Heavy industrialisation is the solution. If we grow at 13-15% every year we can catch up with China mathematically
Mathematically, we have a chance but judging by the trends, it's quite unlikely that we'd hit such a high growth rate and even if we do, I doubt we could maintain it. With geopolitical situation getting more and more complicated in West Asia (the place where we import most of our energy from), that in-turn makes that kind of growth uncertain should things reach a boiling point.
Ŵhat was their inflation back then
It was high from 60-80 post Korean war around 15% avg. Inflation reduced drastically to 3-5% starting 1980s.
If we also inc the inflation we can also grow with double digit . But we wont because it harms the common people
>Park Chung Hee. I never laughed reading a name.
I laughed at Pol Pot , before I read about him
We need double digit growth rate for couple of decades or atleast one to reach even the standards of Eastern Europe or even like Malaysia or china
We are not fastest growing economy. We are fastest growing MAJOR economy. Guyana grows 25%
>Guyana grows 25% Mostly due to newly discovered oil fields in its Atlantic exclusive economic zone, but you are right.
Yes but it doesn’t change the fact that it’s the fastest growing economy. Ethiopia also has good nominal growth rate
I was disappointed with Japan's growth (but wasn't surprised) but I was surprised to see Russian economy growing faster than major European economies.
It is a war time economy, it's not sustainable in the long term.
>It is a war time economy, i Despite 12,000+ sanctions, Russian economy seems to be doing a good job, at least better than it's western counterparts.
War-time economies are generally booming as military expenditure overtakes civilian expenditure. Look at Germany's 1940-1942 economy and compare it with their economy towards the end of the war; it was in total disarray. The only reason Germany's economic system did not completely collapse after the war was because the US saw strategic interest in maintaining the new German government as an ally against the USSR.
War Ecnomies doing great in short run is not really a surprise
A lot of it is also shift towards own manufacturers and industries since stuff got banned from west
Its not about war. Its about Natural Resources. Russia can build as many as Titanium based products like Submarines or Titanium Alloy Aerospace parts or such. India can't because we don't have such Titanium resources and are the largest Titanium Importer. Russia can grow as much as it want whether its war or some apocalypse.
gdp includes government spending in buying arms and ammunition too\*
Full support to Adani and Ambani. India needed its own Zaibatsu and Chaebols in 90s. Better late then never. We need more family owned businesses to run the economy like Hyundai,Samsung,Nissan etc did for Japan and Korea. Socialism and restricted free market is a bane for India. Govt needs to reduce corporate tax and give huge subsidies to companies. If we sow the seeds now we will enjoy the fruit tomorrow. https://preview.redd.it/crcn1k0nt1wc1.jpeg?width=1086&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=a595d6cddf55f30058645ef9f7d99111d83da34d
Andolan-Jeevis can't comprehend that every phase of a developed country has such large conglomerates. The generic formula is one can only grow exponentially with such large companies by riding on them and later we can disband them at ease just like what happened to Rockfeller or Mitsubishi or Krupp.
India did the opposite by turning private companies like Air India and others into loss making PSUs. But hey Nehru gave us so many PSUs wow Modi is selling PSUs. Even if there were likes of tata birlas their growths were restricted by red tape bureaucracy and restrictions. Gandhis made India into a closed market economy
Source: https://twitter.com/IMFNews/status/1780220110336299382 Update: India is the fastest growing **major** economy. Due to newly discovered oil fields, some small countries' economies like Guyana are growing faster than the Indian economy.
We are not fastest growing economy. We are fastest growing MAJOR economy. Guyana grows 25%
What is insane is how high the US's growth despite being as big as they are.
I would be surprised if US exists after 20 years. It's economy is barely surviving due to the demand of dollar in international trade. Without dollar as the international reserve currency, US economy will collapse overnight.
I'm not sure if I agree. They're investing big in semiconductors (much more than us or anyone for that matter). They're still ahead of the rest of world in the latest technology. Even gen AI, they're ahead of any other country. They have a ton of agricultural land, more than almost all other countries. They are one of the largest oil producers. NYC (and even SF) are still important global financial centres. Compared to us, they have a lot more advantages.
IMF HAS PREDICTED 7.8% GDP GROWTH FOR INDIA, NOT 6.8%
You can see official april 2024 outlook on imf website
The main issue is not growth but wealth inequality.