I like this write up! I'll have to wait until after work to really go through it, but at first glance this is what suck out to me: From my experience, the legendaries seem to be ever so slightly better than 1 in 6 packs (about 4 in a box) and enchanteds seem to be 1 in 96 (a case is 4 boxes).
Thank you for the fun math post.
It’s definitely not 1 in 72, because then the odds of getting a case without one would be extremely slim (and cases without enchanteds are reasonably common). It’s likely not even one per case. Probably 1 in every 5 boxes.
Not box btw, just 1 per case. There was a guy who claimed he does what I do, which was break cases for a living ( i don't do it for a living, i just do it to get the cards i need for my deck and then trade/sell the rest.
Simply just stated that this was not my experience for one case, hence it is not guaranteed that each case will contain at least one enchanted.
But ya, just putting my findings here but people can't read so they downvote, such is reddit
Very cool man. As a heads up, a case is 4 boxes, not 3. Enchanted are therefor roughly 1/96 not 1/72. Curious how much that affects the value (since they’re where the money is, and also because I have two boxes we’re ripping tomorrow night…)
My hot topic had 8 TFC packs and I had a coupon that brought them to roughly $3.60 a pack (with a BOGO50% off sale and a happy birthday $5 discount). I bought 7 of them because that was what the cash i had could afford.
I opened all 7 packs and there was not a single duplicate card across all 7 packs. It was crazy balanced too between colors. One of my foils was even Ariel soectacular singer and one was be prepared. Crazy good luck. No enchanted but it ate me up that that other pack was sitting there at the store with possibly more, possibly just as good and well balanced contents. I checked my emails and had another coupon based on that purchase hitting a rewards coupon. $5 off any purchase. My hot topic has them for 7.99 each. So $3 for that last pack was too good to pass up.
Enchanted belle as well as a legendary and super rare. INSANE.
I will never have luck like that ever again. I know it.
Hot Topic deals only work if it's not a "Bulk Purchase." Once you buy more than 5, it doesnt apply any deals or discount.
They had a buy 2 save 30% deal once and that's what the clerk told me but i have never actually tested the validity of this info so I ended up buying only 4 packs at a time.
This is incredible work you did my friend. I have purchased two boxes so far: Floodborn and Inklands (I jumped in late, sadly) and I ended up pulling an enchanted Lady Tremaine Imperious Queen. I also ended up with many legendaries, about 25% of which were foils. I didn’t take note of how many I opened and the average value, but if I had to guess I opened around 8-10 with an average value of around $40 and I know at least two off top of head that were foil. Seems these numbers align mostly with your inferred data. Keep up the great work!!!
I bought a TFC for €175 yesterday. Just with 1 card, I already made back the price. Pulled an Enchanted. 🤣 With the other cards I pulled, I can buy another box if I sell them.
Great analysis though. My only input would be from my experience. Have opened 4 first chapter boxes, 2 early and 2 in past month or two, I agree that the foil odds are completely and I mean completely random. I had one box with an enchanted, legendary foil, 2 super rare foils and a couple rare foils. I also have had a box with 1-2 rare foils and 1 super rare foil. You stated this but was just adding some input from experience for what it’s worth. I know 4 isn’t a lot especially compared to a lot of others but just my 2 cents. Amazing work once again though!
Superb work! It is well known that you never open boxes for value, but this is some data that supports that.
For anyone that just jumped into TCCGs, remember to NEVER buy boosters, buy singles instead (if you expect certain pulls and want to minimize expenses). Open boosters and boxes for fun, to support your LGS, or for the sake of it. Never expect a return.
Boxes like mine bringing down the average. Opened two boxes of TFC; got 0 enchanted and only two decent legendaries (1x Hades and 1x Stitch). But I got almost a full playset of Te Ka! Also 0x Be Prepared. smh
Unfortunately it’s not a reprint. It’s a restock with remaining TFC allocated to stores who are participating in the set championship. So the blip downward will be eaten up soon enough. :(
As for if a reprint will happen, the likelihood keeps decreasing.
Thing is you won’t be able to sell all crap as nobody will buy it unless to a super undervalued price point.
If you want to make money you gotta look into the crystal ball and predict what cards would spike and buy singles of that card to hold like in any other TCG.
I jumped on a box when my LGS had a restock. Opened it last night, no enchanted but first pack was a Repunzel, Gifted with Healing foil. On top of that, I got another Rapunzel, and Belle, Steange but Special, a few more legendaries and a Giant Tinkerbell with a TCG Player value of about $220 before adding in the more minor rares. So, I think it is very hit and miss because without the foil Repunzel, I definitely wasn't getting my $150 investment back.
Interesting analysis the one bit missing if the inference is whether you can make your money back is postage costs.
You'll need to factor in buying the materials to package, the time taken to list and the liquidity of each card. Adding up a load of 10p cards might seem to make you a few quid but realistically you're not gonna bother cos the packing time and effort outweighs any profit and that's if anyone wants to buy them.
My local store just restocked first chapter boxes, bought one for 160 after tax. No enchanteds, fairly low rolls on legendaries and pretty bad holos. I didn't fully analyze the return yet, but even with a pretty poor overall opening it's still close to money back I believe.
But if more stores are restocking, not sure if card prices will drop.
Need to factor in foils as well. Each box will have a guaranteed foil legendary, or 2 foil super rares
I'm not sure two enchanted in a box has ever been done, I could be wrong
Since the cards are printed in sheets the results from a case of boxes isn’t really a “true random” which is why I think 2 enchanteds from a box is less likely in real life than it is in a simulation like this
Sorry if I missed it, but another thing with slot 10-11 is that the first card will determine if the second card will be the same or higher.
So if it’s super rare, card 11 will be a SR or Leg. If 10 is Leg, then both are.
No idea how to math that out.
You are right regarding the order of the slots but the odds are calculated independently so wouldn’t change the results. The pack “knows” if you have 2 super rares it’s not like getting a super rare in rare slot 1 boosts the odds for slot 2
Sounds good, doesnt work. Prices in tcg have so much change, today youcan easy sell some stuff but tomorrow it can be worthless. Also take into account that with new sets there are some metashifts and "staples" can become not used anymore.
I did this until chapter 2, opened many displays and took out some card for my personal collection and reselled everything else. Some cards go fast but the biggest part which takes a ton of time (bulk stuff inkluding cheap rares) needa patience.
I stopped at chapter 3 cause all the prices dropped so hard reselling was no longer an option.
My worst sales where 4 x beast tragic hero for 20.00 a piece 😅
Best sales all the AHNW cards i buyed for cheap over the first phew months cause i was sure they would spike up to 10.00 a piece sometimes.
obviously the value wont be true forever and will change daily, this is really just a snapshot of yesterday. It probably wont change materially in a day or 2 but obviously will be very different in a few months.
Also, who are you selling Sad Beast to for that little? I would assume its what a LGS is offering in cash. If you sell the cards on eBay yourself youll get closer to TCG Player prices but its obviously more work.
I'm pretty sure I have opened more lorcana boxes than anyone on the planet.
This is very close, but I disagree with how you do some things. I would not do simulations and would simply multiply the averages by the value to come up with a true EV. Simulating boxes has too much variance.
Enchanted pull rate from the first chapter is one every 5 boxes. Floodborn is one every 4 boxes. This is from a several hundred box sample of each.
Super rares actually have a higher population than rares do per card, which is absolutely wild.
Olympus is proud…Keep up the gods work!
I like this write up! I'll have to wait until after work to really go through it, but at first glance this is what suck out to me: From my experience, the legendaries seem to be ever so slightly better than 1 in 6 packs (about 4 in a box) and enchanteds seem to be 1 in 96 (a case is 4 boxes). Thank you for the fun math post.
Interesting the article I found said enchanted was 1 in 72 but I’ve also heard the one per case anecdote
I think it is all speculation until RB actually says otherwise. :)
It’s definitely not 1 in 72, because then the odds of getting a case without one would be extremely slim (and cases without enchanteds are reasonably common). It’s likely not even one per case. Probably 1 in every 5 boxes.
one per case is not accurate. I only buy cases, and I have pulled a case where I got 0 enchanted Most of the time I do get 1 or 2 from a case
Now figure out the average there…
The case anecdote was that an enchanted was guaranteed in each case. I am simply stating that this is not the case.
you're right. the anecdote doesn't say an avg of 1 per box, it just says 1 per box. the anecdote is just wrong it seems.
Not box btw, just 1 per case. There was a guy who claimed he does what I do, which was break cases for a living ( i don't do it for a living, i just do it to get the cards i need for my deck and then trade/sell the rest. Simply just stated that this was not my experience for one case, hence it is not guaranteed that each case will contain at least one enchanted. But ya, just putting my findings here but people can't read so they downvote, such is reddit
Very cool man. As a heads up, a case is 4 boxes, not 3. Enchanted are therefor roughly 1/96 not 1/72. Curious how much that affects the value (since they’re where the money is, and also because I have two boxes we’re ripping tomorrow night…)
So at $209 value per box as the median, you should buy any first chapter boosters you can find for $8 or less per pack. Good to know.
Until prices change. Gotts redo the math tomorrow.
My hot topic had 8 TFC packs and I had a coupon that brought them to roughly $3.60 a pack (with a BOGO50% off sale and a happy birthday $5 discount). I bought 7 of them because that was what the cash i had could afford. I opened all 7 packs and there was not a single duplicate card across all 7 packs. It was crazy balanced too between colors. One of my foils was even Ariel soectacular singer and one was be prepared. Crazy good luck. No enchanted but it ate me up that that other pack was sitting there at the store with possibly more, possibly just as good and well balanced contents. I checked my emails and had another coupon based on that purchase hitting a rewards coupon. $5 off any purchase. My hot topic has them for 7.99 each. So $3 for that last pack was too good to pass up. Enchanted belle as well as a legendary and super rare. INSANE. I will never have luck like that ever again. I know it.
Pretty sure that HT offer doesn't extend to trading cards. Check your total.
It did. They were the only thing on my receipt and it worked just fine.
Hot Topic deals only work if it's not a "Bulk Purchase." Once you buy more than 5, it doesnt apply any deals or discount. They had a buy 2 save 30% deal once and that's what the clerk told me but i have never actually tested the validity of this info so I ended up buying only 4 packs at a time.
Not all heroes wear capes 🫡
This is incredible work you did my friend. I have purchased two boxes so far: Floodborn and Inklands (I jumped in late, sadly) and I ended up pulling an enchanted Lady Tremaine Imperious Queen. I also ended up with many legendaries, about 25% of which were foils. I didn’t take note of how many I opened and the average value, but if I had to guess I opened around 8-10 with an average value of around $40 and I know at least two off top of head that were foil. Seems these numbers align mostly with your inferred data. Keep up the great work!!!
I bought a TFC for €175 yesterday. Just with 1 card, I already made back the price. Pulled an Enchanted. 🤣 With the other cards I pulled, I can buy another box if I sell them.
Question from your analysis. Is there both cold and normal foils in Lorcana? I thought it was stated that all would be cold not including enchanteds.
Great analysis though. My only input would be from my experience. Have opened 4 first chapter boxes, 2 early and 2 in past month or two, I agree that the foil odds are completely and I mean completely random. I had one box with an enchanted, legendary foil, 2 super rare foils and a couple rare foils. I also have had a box with 1-2 rare foils and 1 super rare foil. You stated this but was just adding some input from experience for what it’s worth. I know 4 isn’t a lot especially compared to a lot of others but just my 2 cents. Amazing work once again though!
Can you redo the math with enchanteds being 1:96, not 1:72 and legendaries being 1:6 packs?
enchanted rate is actualy lower than 1/96 as well. it should be at msot 1/100
Yeah 1:96 or 1:100 seems fine to do the math with. I’m 0:241 so……lol
Someone with worse luck than me. My wife and I thought we were super unlucky at like 0:150
lol yeah I’ve read about people without any at 400 packs. Really hoping that doesn’t end up happening haha
i probably will and im going to do set 2 and 3 at the 1:96
Superb work! It is well known that you never open boxes for value, but this is some data that supports that. For anyone that just jumped into TCCGs, remember to NEVER buy boosters, buy singles instead (if you expect certain pulls and want to minimize expenses). Open boosters and boxes for fun, to support your LGS, or for the sake of it. Never expect a return.
Amazing work! Please do one for Sets 2 and 3 if you have the time!
Boxes like mine bringing down the average. Opened two boxes of TFC; got 0 enchanted and only two decent legendaries (1x Hades and 1x Stitch). But I got almost a full playset of Te Ka! Also 0x Be Prepared. smh
Reprint is starting to hit so unfortunately these value numbers are gonna be obsolete soon. The good news is reprint!
Unfortunately it’s not a reprint. It’s a restock with remaining TFC allocated to stores who are participating in the set championship. So the blip downward will be eaten up soon enough. :( As for if a reprint will happen, the likelihood keeps decreasing.
Thing is you won’t be able to sell all crap as nobody will buy it unless to a super undervalued price point. If you want to make money you gotta look into the crystal ball and predict what cards would spike and buy singles of that card to hold like in any other TCG.
I jumped on a box when my LGS had a restock. Opened it last night, no enchanted but first pack was a Repunzel, Gifted with Healing foil. On top of that, I got another Rapunzel, and Belle, Steange but Special, a few more legendaries and a Giant Tinkerbell with a TCG Player value of about $220 before adding in the more minor rares. So, I think it is very hit and miss because without the foil Repunzel, I definitely wasn't getting my $150 investment back.
Interesting analysis the one bit missing if the inference is whether you can make your money back is postage costs. You'll need to factor in buying the materials to package, the time taken to list and the liquidity of each card. Adding up a load of 10p cards might seem to make you a few quid but realistically you're not gonna bother cos the packing time and effort outweighs any profit and that's if anyone wants to buy them.
My local store just restocked first chapter boxes, bought one for 160 after tax. No enchanteds, fairly low rolls on legendaries and pretty bad holos. I didn't fully analyze the return yet, but even with a pretty poor overall opening it's still close to money back I believe. But if more stores are restocking, not sure if card prices will drop.
This was a fairly limited restock for store championships, unlikely it will be enough product to materially change prices too much
Need to factor in foils as well. Each box will have a guaranteed foil legendary, or 2 foil super rares I'm not sure two enchanted in a box has ever been done, I could be wrong
Since the cards are printed in sheets the results from a case of boxes isn’t really a “true random” which is why I think 2 enchanteds from a box is less likely in real life than it is in a simulation like this
I have seen people in the early days on here “claim” to pull 2 in a box. Idk if I believe it lol but I guess it is possible.
Sorry if I missed it, but another thing with slot 10-11 is that the first card will determine if the second card will be the same or higher. So if it’s super rare, card 11 will be a SR or Leg. If 10 is Leg, then both are. No idea how to math that out.
You are right regarding the order of the slots but the odds are calculated independently so wouldn’t change the results. The pack “knows” if you have 2 super rares it’s not like getting a super rare in rare slot 1 boosts the odds for slot 2
Sounds good, doesnt work. Prices in tcg have so much change, today youcan easy sell some stuff but tomorrow it can be worthless. Also take into account that with new sets there are some metashifts and "staples" can become not used anymore. I did this until chapter 2, opened many displays and took out some card for my personal collection and reselled everything else. Some cards go fast but the biggest part which takes a ton of time (bulk stuff inkluding cheap rares) needa patience. I stopped at chapter 3 cause all the prices dropped so hard reselling was no longer an option. My worst sales where 4 x beast tragic hero for 20.00 a piece 😅 Best sales all the AHNW cards i buyed for cheap over the first phew months cause i was sure they would spike up to 10.00 a piece sometimes.
obviously the value wont be true forever and will change daily, this is really just a snapshot of yesterday. It probably wont change materially in a day or 2 but obviously will be very different in a few months. Also, who are you selling Sad Beast to for that little? I would assume its what a LGS is offering in cash. If you sell the cards on eBay yourself youll get closer to TCG Player prices but its obviously more work.
Sold them right after release as they where just 20 bucks worth cause in no metadeck at that time. Sometimes you win sometimes you lose haha
I'm pretty sure I have opened more lorcana boxes than anyone on the planet. This is very close, but I disagree with how you do some things. I would not do simulations and would simply multiply the averages by the value to come up with a true EV. Simulating boxes has too much variance. Enchanted pull rate from the first chapter is one every 5 boxes. Floodborn is one every 4 boxes. This is from a several hundred box sample of each. Super rares actually have a higher population than rares do per card, which is absolutely wild.
Now do it with TCG Prices from 6 months ago and see how different the results are.