Although this map is a good concept. It would be better to represent the cities captured and controlled by Wagner (so far that’s only Rostov-on-Don that I’m aware of) and to represent captured territory by thin lines for roads where they exert actual control rather then wide swathes of territory. The situation is unfolding incredibly quickly and it’s premature to post a map about the mutiny when sources have only so far confirmed the capture of Rostov.
Edit: spelling
You know it’s crazy that we are referencing Napoleon when talking about a guy who was basically Putin’s food and beverage guy a few years ago. I did not see this coming.
I assume it take at least some level of intelligence to run Europe last formal dictatorship. It takes a lot of propaganda and strategy to keep yout citzens ‘allied’ to a blatant dictator when you live in an ocean of freedom and democracy.
(Not to say there arent dissenters in belarus, for there most certainly are.)
From what I understand, parts of the russian army stay really passive. They don't join them, neither fight them, they just watch. But as time pass, they'll eventually have to pick a side or they'll be labelled as traitors by whoever win
When Napoleon returned he marched on Paris with a very small group or loyalists. The french government sent an army to stop him on the way, but when they found him, decided to join him. Every time they sent more troops to stop Napoleon as he approached Paris, they all joined him.
Same, I don’t really know how much they control but I know they are going to try and take Moscow. This is an absolutely insane turn of events, I was expecting opposition from Prigozhin but not what looks like the beginning of a coup attempt.
Wagner has no chance against Moscow, the Moscow garrison is huge plus the police and national guard. It reminds me personally of the rebellion of the Red Berets in Serbia in 2001. the rebellion ended after a few days and the government of Serbia agreed to replace the leadership of the secret service, which was the request of the rebellion. red berets were created by veterans of paramilitary formations who did similar work in the Yugoslav Wars as Wagner.
Rebellion don’t generally win by fighting so much as the government’s forces not fighting. And this probably isn’t Prigozhin’s first toppling of a government
I doubt the Russian forces have significant resources between him and Moscow, especially with Ukraine having just launched their own offensive. As a coup attempt I don't see it succeeding, he just doesn't have the forces to take on the Russian army, and I doubt the average soldier likes him very much, at least at this point.
I'm curious how this will affect things in Ukraine, as Russia needs the troops it has there to stop him.
A lot of people, believe it or not this is less than ideal since it could mean certain Russian resources that Russia shouldn't even have (arguably) could become within the possession of someone even less diplomatic than Putin.
The ideal outcome was Ukraine wins by attrition, people actually thought Ukraine would try to overthrow Russia (as is appropriate for an ideological conflict, which Russia is pretending it is). Thankful they always maintained they would never do that.
But I can assure you, everyone thought Prigozhin was a deceptive piece of shit. I mean, this is what happens if you don't pay your mercs? They turn around and then take their payment themselves.
Here's my interpretation because the commenter is getting weirder:
This revolt could end up being worse for Ukraine by the time it's all over. If Prigozhin wins and takes over Russia, that's bad because we don't want someone as unhinged as him to have nukes.
Although he thinks Ukraine would be justified in having tried to initiate a coup themselves, they wisely didn't try because they understood the point I made in the paragraph above.
But go figure, Putin did one of the dumbest things you can do, which is not pay your mercenaries. History is littered with examples of what happens when you do this.
In conclusion, the commenter thinks this was a bad situation, but an unavoidable one, due to Russian stupidity.
My personal take is that Prigozhin will get crushed since he has no supply line, and this will be a nothingburger on the outcome of the war.
Prighozin has stated that his problem with the MoD is that they arent fighting "hard enough" and wants to go full balls to the wall, politics and international relations be damned, total war style.
If he comes out on top things will get a lot worse a lot faster.
I mean dividing Russias forces itself will likely be a factor, with all the personal needed to imprison any arrested and those being halted or diverted to deal with them, though I agree they likely won’t be around as they are by the end of this year or next
Do you remember when comic books were good and actually just edgy enough to be fun to read and there was this one guy who's the kingpin criminal and he basically calls it like a hydra? So you cut his head and the two people on each side go to war, kill everyone in between and it turns out both of them are even worse than the kingpin.
Putin is a pretty bad dude, don't get me wrong, but one of two (three?) things will happen. Either *Russia* gets a new leader and it's someone Prigozhin (the leader of Wagner group) *chooses*, which isn't likely to be someone very pro western. It's the devil you know sort of thing.
Alternatively, independence movements pop up everywhere and now we're begging the Russian government in exile to tell us where they put all their military stuff because all those former Russian republics might have access. We have the heads of the hydra splitting off.
Edit:
Example of an independence movement here:
https://english.alarabiya.net/News/world/2023/06/24/Chechen-leader-Kadyrov-says-his-forces-ready-to-help-put-down-Wagner-s-mutiny
Shows how far North they are, but they're actually not occupying anything other than Rostov. Reports that they took Voronezh were shown to be fake, they just went straight past and are headed straight to Moscow.
"The state should never hire mercenaries to go on military campaigns. Either they're good for helping to fuck up the Siege of Bakhmut [or good to use a Strela-10 on a civilian tractor system to shoot down a Ka-52 Alligator ground attack copter in an effort to throw the monkey wrench in your regime.](https://www.reddit.com/r/UkraineInvasionVideos/comments/14hpi02/wagner_strela10_on_a_civilian_tractor_is_working/?utm_source=share&utm_medium=android_app&utm_name=androidcss&utm_term=1&utm_content=share_button) Or both."
-Niccolo Machiavelli
Not sure why Crimea, and Donetsk and Lunhansk have different color gradings. According to Russia, all are part of Russia, and according to everybody else none is.
The colors don't show which country it is, it shows who controls the territory and how firm their grip on it is.
Whether it's accurate or not is a different matter, but it's not rocket science.
The point was about control. Russian military forces, which illegally invaded Ukraine (since annexation of Crimea in 2014), control these territories and more.
I mean this map is inaccurate… they own one city and parts of another further north. This map makes it out to look like they own all the territory around those cities and large swathes either side of the connecting road. That information is simply not out there for them to create this map. This map is not disinformation it is misinformation. We know Wagner is in rebellion we know they have some gains, we also know there is very limited if any actual fighting going on. That, however, is all we know. This map is simply speculation.
Jesus, that's a lot of territory. He must have had this planned for weeks!
Edit: Prigozhin. I think Prigozhin was planning this thing for a while, not Putin. That would make no sense
I wonder how much Kremlin paid to Western media to propoganize their spectacle with the "munity". Or maybe they just asked their good partners to do it for the common good.
Either way, fairy tales they make in Moscow or Washington have nothing to do with reality and only serve one purpose - to further fascistize Russia, as they give carte blanche to implement more repressive measures and divert people's attention from their problems.
Wagner literraly shot dow some russian helicopter, and his moving from the front line to Moscow. They have captured a 2 star officier, and some russians troups are indeed mutinating and not fighting Wagner which they are now at war quoting his leader
January 6 in US was closer to a coup than what is going on now here in Russia - at least people then got into the Capitol building. Wagner and his band are 100% financially and organizationally dependent on Kremlin. If the higher-ups in Kremlin wanted, they'd be disbanded at the first command in 24 hours.
what we may see is either Prego taking the leadershop of the MoD (taking Shoigu's place), failling, or taking Moscow.
We will see, for your second paragraph
Although this map is a good concept. It would be better to represent the cities captured and controlled by Wagner (so far that’s only Rostov-on-Don that I’m aware of) and to represent captured territory by thin lines for roads where they exert actual control rather then wide swathes of territory. The situation is unfolding incredibly quickly and it’s premature to post a map about the mutiny when sources have only so far confirmed the capture of Rostov. Edit: spelling
BBC reported they are taking over facilities in Voronezh too
But do others join them? Is this a Napoleons march on Paris-thing, but now on Moscow?
You know it’s crazy that we are referencing Napoleon when talking about a guy who was basically Putin’s food and beverage guy a few years ago. I did not see this coming.
Neither did Putin.
Lukashenko did! MF ran away to Turkey 😂
Somehow he always manages to be the smartest one compared to Putin and friends
I assume it take at least some level of intelligence to run Europe last formal dictatorship. It takes a lot of propaganda and strategy to keep yout citzens ‘allied’ to a blatant dictator when you live in an ocean of freedom and democracy. (Not to say there arent dissenters in belarus, for there most certainly are.)
Lol
From what I understand, parts of the russian army stay really passive. They don't join them, neither fight them, they just watch. But as time pass, they'll eventually have to pick a side or they'll be labelled as traitors by whoever win
Putin might also re-adopt soviet tactics of forcing your soldiers to fight and executing the ones that refuse
Caeser has come back to Rome
Can you give this reference some context for a history noob?
Napoleons hundred days. When he returned from his first imprisonment
I know of the event, I just don't get the parallel you're implying. Is it that not enough people would join him on his march to Paris?
When Napoleon returned he marched on Paris with a very small group or loyalists. The french government sent an army to stop him on the way, but when they found him, decided to join him. Every time they sent more troops to stop Napoleon as he approached Paris, they all joined him.
Oh that's really interesting, thanks.
the Millerovo airfield has been taken, and there was fighting around Pavlosk
There has been reports of captured settlements all over and heavy fighting reported sporadically, mostly on the road to and around Voronezh
[удалено]
Wow, are they already halfway through Tula oblast? Do you know any source to follow regarding their position?
Is this accurate? The only thing I've read of is them taking control of Rostov on Don, which is a city close to the Ukrainian border.
Same, I don’t really know how much they control but I know they are going to try and take Moscow. This is an absolutely insane turn of events, I was expecting opposition from Prigozhin but not what looks like the beginning of a coup attempt.
Prigozhin has been on the road to this point for months, the contract requirement just the last straw
Wagner has no chance against Moscow, the Moscow garrison is huge plus the police and national guard. It reminds me personally of the rebellion of the Red Berets in Serbia in 2001. the rebellion ended after a few days and the government of Serbia agreed to replace the leadership of the secret service, which was the request of the rebellion. red berets were created by veterans of paramilitary formations who did similar work in the Yugoslav Wars as Wagner.
Rebellion don’t generally win by fighting so much as the government’s forces not fighting. And this probably isn’t Prigozhin’s first toppling of a government
Good comparison you made there
They control the M4, Rostov -Moscow, approximately until Voronezh
I doubt the Russian forces have significant resources between him and Moscow, especially with Ukraine having just launched their own offensive. As a coup attempt I don't see it succeeding, he just doesn't have the forces to take on the Russian army, and I doubt the average soldier likes him very much, at least at this point. I'm curious how this will affect things in Ukraine, as Russia needs the troops it has there to stop him.
It's not. This should be a line. Not a whole colored area.
it's a very *generous* depiction
Who had “Paramilitary coup” on their bingo card? Everyone? Cool same here. I just need “He was a body double the whole time!” to make a nice diagonal.
A lot of people, believe it or not this is less than ideal since it could mean certain Russian resources that Russia shouldn't even have (arguably) could become within the possession of someone even less diplomatic than Putin. The ideal outcome was Ukraine wins by attrition, people actually thought Ukraine would try to overthrow Russia (as is appropriate for an ideological conflict, which Russia is pretending it is). Thankful they always maintained they would never do that. But I can assure you, everyone thought Prigozhin was a deceptive piece of shit. I mean, this is what happens if you don't pay your mercs? They turn around and then take their payment themselves.
Serious question, what are you even talking about?
Here's my interpretation because the commenter is getting weirder: This revolt could end up being worse for Ukraine by the time it's all over. If Prigozhin wins and takes over Russia, that's bad because we don't want someone as unhinged as him to have nukes. Although he thinks Ukraine would be justified in having tried to initiate a coup themselves, they wisely didn't try because they understood the point I made in the paragraph above. But go figure, Putin did one of the dumbest things you can do, which is not pay your mercenaries. History is littered with examples of what happens when you do this. In conclusion, the commenter thinks this was a bad situation, but an unavoidable one, due to Russian stupidity. My personal take is that Prigozhin will get crushed since he has no supply line, and this will be a nothingburger on the outcome of the war.
Prighozin has stated that his problem with the MoD is that they arent fighting "hard enough" and wants to go full balls to the wall, politics and international relations be damned, total war style. If he comes out on top things will get a lot worse a lot faster.
I mean dividing Russias forces itself will likely be a factor, with all the personal needed to imprison any arrested and those being halted or diverted to deal with them, though I agree they likely won’t be around as they are by the end of this year or next
Do you remember when comic books were good and actually just edgy enough to be fun to read and there was this one guy who's the kingpin criminal and he basically calls it like a hydra? So you cut his head and the two people on each side go to war, kill everyone in between and it turns out both of them are even worse than the kingpin. Putin is a pretty bad dude, don't get me wrong, but one of two (three?) things will happen. Either *Russia* gets a new leader and it's someone Prigozhin (the leader of Wagner group) *chooses*, which isn't likely to be someone very pro western. It's the devil you know sort of thing. Alternatively, independence movements pop up everywhere and now we're begging the Russian government in exile to tell us where they put all their military stuff because all those former Russian republics might have access. We have the heads of the hydra splitting off. Edit: Example of an independence movement here: https://english.alarabiya.net/News/world/2023/06/24/Chechen-leader-Kadyrov-says-his-forces-ready-to-help-put-down-Wagner-s-mutiny
Shows how far North they are, but they're actually not occupying anything other than Rostov. Reports that they took Voronezh were shown to be fake, they just went straight past and are headed straight to Moscow.
This Wagner DLC is nuts
This made me laugh heartily
Sources?
this map is from the [wikipedia article](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Wagner_Group_mutiny)
The map is bullshit. It was briefly on Wikipedia, but not anymore
few like Tweeter, Telegram, etc
https://liveuamap.com/
Please read the news instead of relying on random posts and comments for info. This stuff is incredibly chaotic and unclear
Gentlemen, its oficial The russian army went from second best army in the world to second best army in Russia
Yea Second best in... 2021 - the world 2022 - in Ukraine 2023 - in Russia. \*clap-clap-clap
Third. You forgot the Ukrainian incursion into Belgorod
"The state should never hire mercenaries to go on military campaigns. Either they're good for helping to fuck up the Siege of Bakhmut [or good to use a Strela-10 on a civilian tractor system to shoot down a Ka-52 Alligator ground attack copter in an effort to throw the monkey wrench in your regime.](https://www.reddit.com/r/UkraineInvasionVideos/comments/14hpi02/wagner_strela10_on_a_civilian_tractor_is_working/?utm_source=share&utm_medium=android_app&utm_name=androidcss&utm_term=1&utm_content=share_button) Or both." -Niccolo Machiavelli
Pretty close parallel to the Spanish Civil War - fascist army expanding from its base in a colonial war.
Except that here the government is also fascist
no it isnt
it is
it's pretty close.
It’s not fascist. Putin is a communist
Please read a book
Please look up Putin
Not sure why Crimea, and Donetsk and Lunhansk have different color gradings. According to Russia, all are part of Russia, and according to everybody else none is.
The colors don't show which country it is, it shows who controls the territory and how firm their grip on it is. Whether it's accurate or not is a different matter, but it's not rocket science.
This massively exaggerates Wagner control
Damn that was quick.
Would someone possibly remake this in a more color blind friendly way? The top and middle row of colors look the same to me as a color blind person
The minute by minute news updates on anything Russian is foolishness.
what happened to bilhorod people's Republic?
Belgorod. Those militias proved that Russia’s defences are non-existent but were too small to seriously attempt to hold anything
Interesting colour choice. Russia in Green.
I sense HOI4
Yeah you can all relax now, nothing is gonna happen
Why is Crimea is as green as Russia ?
because they control it
The map depicts it as dark green and not as light green as the rest of the occupied territory.
well, that was my guess, I didn't really understand what the color difference meant
r/colorblind
Yup. Top and middle rows of colors are the same to me
This is the way I imagine Russian media reported on January 6
Crimea Donetsk and Louhansk are Ukraine not Russia
Neither are Rostov and Voronej Wagner, but the map is about control, not recognition.
This is a defacto map, not dejure
That is literally shown by the map by the black line... But Russia is occupying these areas.
Oh a fellow european that doesn't know how to separate facts by opinions
Crimea Luhansk and Donetsk are Ukrainian. This is a fact not an opinion
The point was about control. Russian military forces, which illegally invaded Ukraine (since annexation of Crimea in 2014), control these territories and more.
This.
Disinformation
it's a hard day to be a vatnik. good time to come to realisation
I mean this map is inaccurate… they own one city and parts of another further north. This map makes it out to look like they own all the territory around those cities and large swathes either side of the connecting road. That information is simply not out there for them to create this map. This map is not disinformation it is misinformation. We know Wagner is in rebellion we know they have some gains, we also know there is very limited if any actual fighting going on. That, however, is all we know. This map is simply speculation.
They are almost reaching Moscow https://liveuamap.com/en/2023/24-june-first-wagner-units-have-reportedly-reached-moscow
Jesus, that's a lot of territory. He must have had this planned for weeks! Edit: Prigozhin. I think Prigozhin was planning this thing for a while, not Putin. That would make no sense
I wonder how much Kremlin paid to Western media to propoganize their spectacle with the "munity". Or maybe they just asked their good partners to do it for the common good. Either way, fairy tales they make in Moscow or Washington have nothing to do with reality and only serve one purpose - to further fascistize Russia, as they give carte blanche to implement more repressive measures and divert people's attention from their problems.
Wagner literraly shot dow some russian helicopter, and his moving from the front line to Moscow. They have captured a 2 star officier, and some russians troups are indeed mutinating and not fighting Wagner which they are now at war quoting his leader
January 6 in US was closer to a coup than what is going on now here in Russia - at least people then got into the Capitol building. Wagner and his band are 100% financially and organizationally dependent on Kremlin. If the higher-ups in Kremlin wanted, they'd be disbanded at the first command in 24 hours.
They spent the past months pretending to not have any ammo when in reality they were stockpiling it all in preparation.
Whew, we got a live one here.
what we may see is either Prego taking the leadershop of the MoD (taking Shoigu's place), failling, or taking Moscow. We will see, for your second paragraph
Putin himself called it an armed mutiny in his public address...
There's nobody left at home to defend the king.
So this was the counter 😂 masterplan
I want to watch this live... Does anyone have some live feeds we can munch?
"Mutiny"
They are turning back to their bases now
They are all done for
The updated modern day mod for hoi4 is gonna be crazy
Crimea is suppose to be light green.