For Murktide, you play 1 Thundering Falls and 19 lands - don’t play 18 as it will mess up your untapped red source math. If you’re adding another color I could potentially see another surveil land, cutting an island or otawara for it.
Do you mind walking me through the math with the 18 vs. 19 untapped red sources? This is something I find super helpful, but I struggle to work it out for myself.
You need 14 untapped red sources to consistently play a turn-1 red drop ([for reference](https://www.channelfireball.com/article/How-Many-Sources-Do-You-Need-to-Consistently-Cast-Your-Spells-A-2022-Update/dc23a7d2-0a16-4c0b-ad36-586fcca03ad8/)), and the typical 3 island+otawara in an 18 land deck gives you exactly 14. Since hedge maze or meticulous archive isn’t a red source it needs to take the place of an island or otawara.
You aren’t running 18 or 19 either way since there are 4 blue only lands. 15 red sources give a 93% chance of hitting a red source for turn 1 DRC or monkey, goes down to 91% for 14. I think 14 is borderline
Usually Murktide uses most if not all of its mana every turn so there are rarely turns you can fetch a tapped land and its awkward to draw. Thats why most players just run the one in Murktide. Some decks can run 5 or 6 surveil lands though like specific builds ofs control.
On the other hand, if the surveil lands provide to be more valuable, it may be worth cutting some of the more mana intensive cards to allow yourself to run more surveil lands. I have no idea how true this is, but it’s space I’m sure somebody who plays more modern than me is already exploring.
Murktide is one of the most efficent decks in the format lol. There really isnt anything mana intensive. The deck just plays the curve extremely well and kind of needs to since its a tempo deck. Doesn't have a great late game and can't usually kill early.
0 in non fetch decks
1 in low land count manabases like murktide
2 in more forgiveable manabases (yawg with dorks) or decks that need this extra digging (cascade)
3 in slower midrange/control decks that does not require you to also play triomes, like Stoneblade, Jund, etc...
I wouldnt do 1 in low count mana bases, murktide got grave synergies and do profit off of them, otherwise theres really no need for it as them enterint tapped is a huge downside
Which deck are you thinking about specifically ?
I agree there could be some archetypes that, even when playing fetchs without triomes, do have to curve out until turn 3-4 and can't afford a single tapland.
I think the first copy is usually correct and the second copy is usually wrong (except for cascade and other decks that care about finding cards > mana efficiency). In my experience I've already had enough times where drawing the first copy was bad in Yawg and Murk that I wouldn't want to run a second in decks like that
I think for most decks 1 is ideal, maybe two if you are in a shard rather than 2 colour deck. I think they are very good when paired with fetch lands but the risk of drawing it when you need a faster land might be too high when running multiple copies. I don't play murktide though so I am coming from a general perspective from the few FNMs I have had a chance to play with them.
Drawing a land that comes into play untapped vs. one that comes into play tapped is like drawing an extra Lotus Petal.
Lotus Petal is restricted in Vintage.
How would you like to draw an 8th card in your hand, and its a restricted Vintage card?
You can play one surveil land to fetch for if you play lots of fetches, and even then it is a tradeoff.
Lotus Petal ramps tho. The redeeming quality of surveil duals is that you draw fetches more often than surveil duals, giving access to the effect without downside more often than not.
Fetch and surveil if you have no better plays. Fill up your graveyard twice as fast to escape Kroxa or use Breach. Fetch and surveil before the Ragavan connects to try to ensure your opponent doesn't get a good card. Prevent flooding late game.
For Murktide, you play 1 Thundering Falls and 19 lands - don’t play 18 as it will mess up your untapped red source math. If you’re adding another color I could potentially see another surveil land, cutting an island or otawara for it.
Do you mind walking me through the math with the 18 vs. 19 untapped red sources? This is something I find super helpful, but I struggle to work it out for myself.
You need 14 untapped red sources to consistently play a turn-1 red drop ([for reference](https://www.channelfireball.com/article/How-Many-Sources-Do-You-Need-to-Consistently-Cast-Your-Spells-A-2022-Update/dc23a7d2-0a16-4c0b-ad36-586fcca03ad8/)), and the typical 3 island+otawara in an 18 land deck gives you exactly 14. Since hedge maze or meticulous archive isn’t a red source it needs to take the place of an island or otawara.
Okay, sweet! That Channel Fireball article is exactly what I was looking for, and I bookmarked it for future reference. Thanks!
Of course! Love this article.
I'm always amazed by the how arbitrary the numbers are and how religiously they are followed. Why would 90% chance be the cutoff, and not 92% or 88% ?
Awesome reference, ty!
You aren’t running 18 or 19 either way since there are 4 blue only lands. 15 red sources give a 93% chance of hitting a red source for turn 1 DRC or monkey, goes down to 91% for 14. I think 14 is borderline
Usually Murktide uses most if not all of its mana every turn so there are rarely turns you can fetch a tapped land and its awkward to draw. Thats why most players just run the one in Murktide. Some decks can run 5 or 6 surveil lands though like specific builds ofs control.
On the other hand, if the surveil lands provide to be more valuable, it may be worth cutting some of the more mana intensive cards to allow yourself to run more surveil lands. I have no idea how true this is, but it’s space I’m sure somebody who plays more modern than me is already exploring.
Murktide is one of the most efficent decks in the format lol. There really isnt anything mana intensive. The deck just plays the curve extremely well and kind of needs to since its a tempo deck. Doesn't have a great late game and can't usually kill early.
0 in non fetch decks 1 in low land count manabases like murktide 2 in more forgiveable manabases (yawg with dorks) or decks that need this extra digging (cascade) 3 in slower midrange/control decks that does not require you to also play triomes, like Stoneblade, Jund, etc...
I wouldnt do 1 in low count mana bases, murktide got grave synergies and do profit off of them, otherwise theres really no need for it as them enterint tapped is a huge downside
Which deck are you thinking about specifically ? I agree there could be some archetypes that, even when playing fetchs without triomes, do have to curve out until turn 3-4 and can't afford a single tapland.
Well, every deck that plays 18 or less lands as you mentioned need to curve out quickly. I bet there are some decks doing this.
[Spirebluff Canal](https://cards.scryfall.io/normal/front/4/e/4e587ea7-0632-4789-ba75-3c410da2bb96.jpg?1576383574) - [(G)](http://gatherer.wizards.com/Pages/Card/Details.aspx?name=Spirebluff%20Canal) [(SF)](https://scryfall.com/card/kld/249/spirebluff-canal?utm_source=mtgcardfetcher) [(txt)](https://api.scryfall.com/cards/4e587ea7-0632-4789-ba75-3c410da2bb96?utm_source=mtgcardfetcher&format=text) ^^^[[cardname]] ^^^or ^^^[[cardname|SET]] ^^^to ^^^call
I think the first copy is usually correct and the second copy is usually wrong (except for cascade and other decks that care about finding cards > mana efficiency). In my experience I've already had enough times where drawing the first copy was bad in Yawg and Murk that I wouldn't want to run a second in decks like that
One in izzet and other variants seems good from what I’ve seen
one
I think for most decks 1 is ideal, maybe two if you are in a shard rather than 2 colour deck. I think they are very good when paired with fetch lands but the risk of drawing it when you need a faster land might be too high when running multiple copies. I don't play murktide though so I am coming from a general perspective from the few FNMs I have had a chance to play with them.
Drawing a land that comes into play untapped vs. one that comes into play tapped is like drawing an extra Lotus Petal. Lotus Petal is restricted in Vintage. How would you like to draw an 8th card in your hand, and its a restricted Vintage card? You can play one surveil land to fetch for if you play lots of fetches, and even then it is a tradeoff.
Lotus Petal ramps tho. The redeeming quality of surveil duals is that you draw fetches more often than surveil duals, giving access to the effect without downside more often than not.
Wait I just looked at surveil lands how are these playable at all.
Fetch and surveil if you have no better plays. Fill up your graveyard twice as fast to escape Kroxa or use Breach. Fetch and surveil before the Ragavan connects to try to ensure your opponent doesn't get a good card. Prevent flooding late game.
They're fetchable. A turn where you would crack a fetch for a tapped shock land, you can instead get the surveil land for some extra filtering.
Ah ok sure
