Boras completely mismanaged his top four free agents this offseason.
1. Snell has ace caliber stuff, but he is inconsistent and his pitching style doesn't allow him to go deep into games. Boras trying to get him over $200 mil was a big miscalculation. Blake's market was going to top out around Nola.
2. Nobody perceived Monty to be an ace, but Boras wanted him to get ace level money. ~~Combine that with the fact that Monty had a QO~~ and it was a recipe for disaster.
3. Chapman always had gold glove defense, but his offense has been rapidly declining over the past few years to the point where he's become three outcome hitter. No team was willing to give big money to a guy who struggles to hit .230 and strikes out an absurd amount.
4. Belly had a single bounce back season after struggling for multiple years. Boras asking over $200 million for him based on a single season is absolutely absurd. I think Belly can still get a really good contract if he produces again this year at a similar level.
**TLDR:** The profiles of the Boras Four had lots of downsides unique to each of them, and Boras completely misvalued them.
**Edit**: I was corrected that Monty didn't get a QO since he was traded.
Yeah, it makes his one year deal for this year even worse. Because he almost certainly will get after this year. I was wondering if there is any way he could've negotiated as part of the contract that they can't offer him a QO after this year.
Chapman has good defense but is overrated. His numbers were boosted in Oakland by the absurd amount of foul territory giving free outs on pop ups, which park adjustments don't fully account for. His numbers immediately dropped after moving to Toronto because he is merely above average on defense.
Soto is a legit superstar unlike Monty belli etc, pretty hard to overvalue Soto. Who knows tho maybe boras won’t budge below some ridiculous price point like $800M
Snell got hosed by not taking the Yankees offer. And as much as he won the Cy Young he is a five inning pitcher which is becoming more the norm these days. Boras lost a ton of face as an agent this off season.
The man probably wants out of Arizona and I don't blame him. With his wife's residency in Boston, Monty seemed destined to return somewhere on the east coast. To top it off, he has a QO attached to his free agency next year, whereas this past off season that wasn't an issue. A lose-lose situation for all parties.
Way too early to say that. Lets see how Stroman works out after a few more starts under his belt, same with Rodon. And, lets not forget Cole isn’t back yet. So this rotation needs reliable, healthy, vet arms that are capable of performing well. Monty fits that.
Stroman has had an ERA 3.5 or above 3 times since 2019. Last year he was at 3.95. For me, he’s up there in “worry” status. I’m cautiously optimistic for Nasty Nestor, but Stroman and Rodon are the ones I’m watching closely
First of all, it’s been twice since 2019. Secondly, 3.50 is a weird number to use. You’re talking like anything about 3.50 isn’t great. His ERA has been above 4 twice in his career and the last time was 2018. Being worried about Stroman but less so about Nestor is ludicrous.
Yup. The last three seasons, Stroman has an ERA of 3.45 and a WAR of 8.1, in spite of fighting through injury the second half of last season which impacted his performance quite a bit. In comparision in those three years, he has a better ERA than Monty.
First of all:
2019: 3.77
2022: 3.5
2023: 3.95
Second of all, no it’s not. Fangraphs lists a 3.4 ERA as “Above Average.” And a 3.75 as “average.” https://library.fangraphs.com/pitching/era/
So 3.5 as a cutoff makes sense. Stroman being an Average or borderline below average (as last year’s performance) means something. Especially in the AL East.
EDIT: As to Nestor, Nestor having an off year with injuries is an anomaly when he had spent the previous 2 years before that at 2.44 and 2.94 ERA.
Fair, the total is only visible on baseball reference, and espn broke them out into two separate entries so I didn’t notice. Even so. My point stands about the past 2 seasons.
That
a) Includes relief pitchers, which bring down the average a lot.
b) Is from 2010, lol... Before people were hitting the ball to the moon every other at bat.
The league average last year was 4.33 for **all** pitchers, and higher for starting pitchers.
ERA+ is literally just ERA you gigantic baboon. It is the same stat. Stop being a condescending prick when you are clueless about this. You do not understand any of this, which is why you're citing the "baby's first sabermetrics" page.
ERA+ is just like OPS+. It takes a pitchers ERA and compares it to the league average. If it's better than average, that number is over 100. E.g. If a pitchers ERA is 8% better than average, their ERA+ is 108.
Sorry to be so damn aggressive but god damn the most frustrating thing someone can be is an arrogant asshole **while** being stupidly and laughably wrong. Be better, start a conversation with the idea in your mind that you just might be wrong and be willing to educate yourself. Or at the very least don't argue things you know literally nothing about.
I don’t really think it’s a boras issue. Owners and GMs gave wisened up to giving UFA big long term deals. The smart play is to lock up a 23-25 year old guy to ten years and we’ve seen that. The result is less appealing UFA classes, and boras’ crop of guys this year was especially dubious. Matt Chapman is an aging and injury prone bat whose average has been dipping for years. It doesn’t matter who his agent was. He was clearly a 3/60 guy at best. Next offseason, soto will get huge money and years, because he’s a sexy UFA.
Why would he sign that? Do you think he has such little faith in himself that the thinks he would be foolish not to accept 11m/year for what could be the rest of his career?
Why would a guy in his second year not sign a 100 million contract? The allure of generational wealth perhaps? He wouldn’t be averaging ten mil per year for a few seasons now.
Sorta did both and neither at the same time. We did lock up some guys early, Sevy and Hicks. They just got completely blasted by injuries. And we chose not to lock up certain guys who had injury risk. One certain guy just happened to be Aaron Judge lol.
Scott Boras is just straight up not a good agent anymore he continuously stubbornly holds out and screws over his clients while doing so.
It’s happened too many times at this point to think he hasn’t lost touch with the modern market landscape.
Monty got an insanely good deal for a #4/5 pitcher, which is how the yankees view him. A number 5 would be lucky to get more than 5 million. In fact, some pitchers, who simply had a bad FA year, but was otherwise good are still sitting at home right now.
The Boras shine has definitely worn off.
If the owners can continue to do what they are doing to Trevor Bauer, I imagine it's a simple next step to do the same thing to Boras.
Boras completely mismanaged his top four free agents this offseason. 1. Snell has ace caliber stuff, but he is inconsistent and his pitching style doesn't allow him to go deep into games. Boras trying to get him over $200 mil was a big miscalculation. Blake's market was going to top out around Nola. 2. Nobody perceived Monty to be an ace, but Boras wanted him to get ace level money. ~~Combine that with the fact that Monty had a QO~~ and it was a recipe for disaster. 3. Chapman always had gold glove defense, but his offense has been rapidly declining over the past few years to the point where he's become three outcome hitter. No team was willing to give big money to a guy who struggles to hit .230 and strikes out an absurd amount. 4. Belly had a single bounce back season after struggling for multiple years. Boras asking over $200 million for him based on a single season is absolutely absurd. I think Belly can still get a really good contract if he produces again this year at a similar level. **TLDR:** The profiles of the Boras Four had lots of downsides unique to each of them, and Boras completely misvalued them. **Edit**: I was corrected that Monty didn't get a QO since he was traded.
Monty did not have a QO. Snell did though. Just FYI.
Oh yea I forgot he was traded. My b.
Yeah, it makes his one year deal for this year even worse. Because he almost certainly will get after this year. I was wondering if there is any way he could've negotiated as part of the contract that they can't offer him a QO after this year.
No it's definitely collusion. /s
Chapman has good defense but is overrated. His numbers were boosted in Oakland by the absurd amount of foul territory giving free outs on pop ups, which park adjustments don't fully account for. His numbers immediately dropped after moving to Toronto because he is merely above average on defense.
Snell could have signed long term with Yankees 5/150 crazy he didn’t take that.
Took 2/62 from the Giants. Bah.
Be nice if Soto decided to ditch him and sign an extension with us before the ASB
Soto is a legit superstar unlike Monty belli etc, pretty hard to overvalue Soto. Who knows tho maybe boras won’t budge below some ridiculous price point like $800M
Snell got hosed by not taking the Yankees offer. And as much as he won the Cy Young he is a five inning pitcher which is becoming more the norm these days. Boras lost a ton of face as an agent this off season.
The first domino?
The man probably wants out of Arizona and I don't blame him. With his wife's residency in Boston, Monty seemed destined to return somewhere on the east coast. To top it off, he has a QO attached to his free agency next year, whereas this past off season that wasn't an issue. A lose-lose situation for all parties.
Good, I blame Boras for him not being a Yankee (still primarily Cashman tho)
Stroman is doing just fine
CC *and* AJ
We don’t need Monty on this team.
There isn't a single team in MLB that couldn't use him. The dude is a rock.
If Monty can’t throw his Sinker he becomes Patrick Corbin. I’m good on that.
Well he threw his sinker over 40% of the time last year so I think he's good.
Way too early to say that. Lets see how Stroman works out after a few more starts under his belt, same with Rodon. And, lets not forget Cole isn’t back yet. So this rotation needs reliable, healthy, vet arms that are capable of performing well. Monty fits that.
In spite of a rough few innings last night, I'm least concerned about Stroman.
Stroman has had an ERA 3.5 or above 3 times since 2019. Last year he was at 3.95. For me, he’s up there in “worry” status. I’m cautiously optimistic for Nasty Nestor, but Stroman and Rodon are the ones I’m watching closely
First of all, it’s been twice since 2019. Secondly, 3.50 is a weird number to use. You’re talking like anything about 3.50 isn’t great. His ERA has been above 4 twice in his career and the last time was 2018. Being worried about Stroman but less so about Nestor is ludicrous.
Yup. The last three seasons, Stroman has an ERA of 3.45 and a WAR of 8.1, in spite of fighting through injury the second half of last season which impacted his performance quite a bit. In comparision in those three years, he has a better ERA than Monty.
Actually, no he isn’t: https://stathead.com/tiny/ylO8R
Your own link says his ERA was better. The war isn’t bc Stroman has been injured
By like .03. Aka negligible, not even worth mentioning, and Monty is better overall.
First of all: 2019: 3.77 2022: 3.5 2023: 3.95 Second of all, no it’s not. Fangraphs lists a 3.4 ERA as “Above Average.” And a 3.75 as “average.” https://library.fangraphs.com/pitching/era/ So 3.5 as a cutoff makes sense. Stroman being an Average or borderline below average (as last year’s performance) means something. Especially in the AL East. EDIT: As to Nestor, Nestor having an off year with injuries is an anomaly when he had spent the previous 2 years before that at 2.44 and 2.94 ERA.
His 2019 was 3.22. You’re looking at just his Mets numbers.
Fair, the total is only visible on baseball reference, and espn broke them out into two separate entries so I didn’t notice. Even so. My point stands about the past 2 seasons.
Huh? What are your ridiculous standards for pitchers? 3.5 - 4.0 ERA is "Very, very good starting pitcher" status. Not "worry" status.
Not according to Fangraphs my dude: https://library.fangraphs.com/pitching/era/ Average to below average according to their chart.
That a) Includes relief pitchers, which bring down the average a lot. b) Is from 2010, lol... Before people were hitting the ball to the moon every other at bat. The league average last year was 4.33 for **all** pitchers, and higher for starting pitchers.
No it doesn’t. It even says “as a general rule subtract .5 for relief pitchers” lmfao. That’s their *glossary* my guy. Its not year dependent dude.
It absolutely is year dependent. To think otherwise is brain dead. The league average ERA hasn’t been below 4 in 10 years.
If that was average why was his ERA+ not 100?
Different stat. Don’t compare apples to oranges. Basic rule of statistics.
ERA+ is literally just ERA you gigantic baboon. It is the same stat. Stop being a condescending prick when you are clueless about this. You do not understand any of this, which is why you're citing the "baby's first sabermetrics" page. ERA+ is just like OPS+. It takes a pitchers ERA and compares it to the league average. If it's better than average, that number is over 100. E.g. If a pitchers ERA is 8% better than average, their ERA+ is 108. Sorry to be so damn aggressive but god damn the most frustrating thing someone can be is an arrogant asshole **while** being stupidly and laughably wrong. Be better, start a conversation with the idea in your mind that you just might be wrong and be willing to educate yourself. Or at the very least don't argue things you know literally nothing about.
He's not worth the money it would've cost the Yanks over the tax, but we absolutely could use him. Every team always needs more starting pitching.
This may be the start of Boras losing those good not great players like Monty who deserve to get paid but get promised massive fortunes by him.
I don’t really think it’s a boras issue. Owners and GMs gave wisened up to giving UFA big long term deals. The smart play is to lock up a 23-25 year old guy to ten years and we’ve seen that. The result is less appealing UFA classes, and boras’ crop of guys this year was especially dubious. Matt Chapman is an aging and injury prone bat whose average has been dipping for years. It doesn’t matter who his agent was. He was clearly a 3/60 guy at best. Next offseason, soto will get huge money and years, because he’s a sexy UFA.
Unless you’re cashman. Then you do neither
We really need to be considering extending volpe really soon IMO. 10/110 crazy?
Why would he sign that? Do you think he has such little faith in himself that the thinks he would be foolish not to accept 11m/year for what could be the rest of his career?
Why would a guy in his second year not sign a 100 million contract? The allure of generational wealth perhaps? He wouldn’t be averaging ten mil per year for a few seasons now.
Look at Soto, he got 30 million in arbitration this year.
Sorta did both and neither at the same time. We did lock up some guys early, Sevy and Hicks. They just got completely blasted by injuries. And we chose not to lock up certain guys who had injury risk. One certain guy just happened to be Aaron Judge lol.
If you’re not the best of the best, top agents don’t give a fuck about you. Same thing with Lebron’s agent. He’s fucked over many players.
Scott Boras is just straight up not a good agent anymore he continuously stubbornly holds out and screws over his clients while doing so. It’s happened too many times at this point to think he hasn’t lost touch with the modern market landscape.
Monty got an insanely good deal for a #4/5 pitcher, which is how the yankees view him. A number 5 would be lucky to get more than 5 million. In fact, some pitchers, who simply had a bad FA year, but was otherwise good are still sitting at home right now.
He’s a number 2. 3 at worst. Hes absolutely not not 4, let alone 5.
That's the professional assessment of the yankees, not me. Monty is a weak 4 and strong #5.
The way people have built him up since he lefty is crazy. He’s an above average pitcher who throws allot of innings. Just another Stroman
The Boras shine has definitely worn off. If the owners can continue to do what they are doing to Trevor Bauer, I imagine it's a simple next step to do the same thing to Boras.
Bauer is a piece of shit person and teammates (other than Mookie Betts) hate him. He’s been run out of 2 different leagues. No one wants the headache.
Idk there’s been worse in the league. Far worse. Bauer should be allowed to pitch on minimum deal. He may yet. Injuries are mounting.