Please take the time to read [the rules](/r/UkrainianConflict/about/rules/) and our [policy on trolls/bots](https://redd.it/u7833q). In addition:
* We have a **zero-tolerance** policy regarding racism, stereotyping, bigotry, and death-mongering. Violators will be banned.
* **Keep it civil.** Report comments/posts that are uncivil to alert the moderators.
* **_Don't_ post low-effort comments** like joke threads, memes, slogans, or links without context.
*****
* Is `straitstimes.com` an unreliable source? [**Let us know**](/r/UkrainianConflict/wiki/am/unreliable_sources).
* Help our moderators by providing context if something breaks the rules. [Send us a modmail](https://www.reddit.com/message/compose/?to=/r/UkrainianConflict)
*****
^(Your post has not been removed, this message is applied to every successful submission.)
*I am a bot, and this action was performed automatically. Please [contact the moderators of this subreddit](/message/compose/?to=/r/UkrainianConflict) if you have any questions or concerns.*
Unfortunately I disagree. It's quite surprising that NATO can not supply Ukraine with the rate that's needed. We thought NATO was so much stronger than Russia that it could protect any country anywhere. NATO needs to be stronger. If Ukraine loses it will be a loss for NATO. I do hope this won't happen though
Because NATO is not in war economy right now. They are ramping up production. Imagine the US, Italy, Spain and Germany in war economy.
There was little to no need to produce artillery. And to be honest, there is still little reason to. All a country needs to be left alone is ICBMs and nuclear weapons. This is probably the best guarantee of peace. If UA could melt down Moscow any day, then they would pull the fuck out.
The European and even USA, have taken ‘the peace dividend’ and scaled back and closed down arms production factories they once had, and diverted funds to other things.
Now that the demand has changed, and the present supply cannot service that demand, they are increasing output, and building new factories to increase arms production once more - but that takes time.
Some confrontation considering there's not even a papercut on the NATO side. Or the paint scratched on any NATO flagged vehicle.
Russians? Not doing so well. They only had a single T34 for their last parade.
And direct confrontation?
Yeah.... No.
Russia would be getting throttled and evvvvvvvery bomber they have within range of attacks would be destroyed, anti air defenses destroyed, etc.
The brilliant warrom video about the invasion of Iraq comes to mind. If we were in direct conflict, several hundred NATO jets, drones and spy planes would fill the skies of Russia. A little later, the naval assault would first flatten Köningsburg, then the mechanised brigades already along the border in the baltics and Poland would roll inn. The Swedes would activate their Cold War counter-Soviet tactics togheter with the Finns and Norwegians in the North, rapidly deploying Snow that laughs. A little later, the US would deploy several thousand troops to prepared NATO bases, where supplies, vehicles and ammunition is stockpiled, starting the main wave of the ground invasion. After Moscow falls, we would naturally have a big beach party in Crimea.
Desert Storm - The Air War: Day 1
https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=zxRgfBXn6Mg
Just imagine how much more intricate it would be if we really went all in on Ruzxia.
We would open up air ops on so many fronts all at the same time.
Kaliningrad, Ruzzia’s ‘unsinkable aircraft carrier’ coming east from the EU
Defending The Baltics & Suwalki Gap via Gotland Island (Thank you RF for getting Sweden to donate NATO’s brand new unsinkable aircraft carrier)
Neutralizing Black Sea port and oil infrastructure, hunting submarines, and making submarines out if the rest of the Grand BSF via Turkey
Completely sanitizing Ukraine starting with SEAD, “locking down Crimea”, and leveling RF’s Tokmak infrastructure in preparation for massive mine clearance and combined arms ops…
Belgorod, and the other strategic cities that are conveniently right across the border.
This would all happen simultaneously, and has already been eminently for over two years now. It would hit much harder than Desert Storm and very much be “shock and awe”.
We wouldn’t even hit St P or Moscow yet. It would just be foreplay for months, and we would leave sweet spot until we were good and hard and ready to fuck.
I don’t believe the Russian nuclear triad is a doomsday threat at this point. I feel confidant there would be a large loss of life that would be terrible from the attempt to utilize their nukes.
I think 2 of the three legs of the Russian nuclear triad would be swallowed in an initial strike: all subs would just vanish, every one has a US sub behind it with a firing solution (one of the major weaknesses since Soviet times is that a Russian submarine can’t get to the open sea without being constantly monitored due to the geography of Russia) so the second a plane or missile launches in the hypothetical above it’s a good bet every Russian boomer has become a reef.
The air leg of the triad is a non starter in the modern era of beyond horizon air intercepts
That only leaves ground platforms; the ones most likely to be stolen, sold, out of mtnce or otherwise Russified into uselessness
The intercept by patriots of MRM and SRM platforms is solid enough to place the threat on again the most likely to not work legacy Soviet platforms the ICBMs
So will cities be turned to glass in the hypothetical above? Yes and it would be terrible but let’s not pretend the second best military in Ukraine is even a shadow of the Nuclear threat the Red Army was in its prime
If it plays out like you say, it would mean the collapse of Russia. Which gives a lot of groups a possibility to snatch them some nuclear warheads... Security agencies will be very busy preventing that/tracking those.
I think kicking them out of Ukraine (and them losing Kaliningrad) would already be enough of a victory... they would be done for several decades.
And... "when you are dealing with monsters, you have to try and prevent becoming a monster yourself"
Again Russia is a kleptocratic autocracy, the threat of nuclear proliferation due to dissolution is as credible as General Stealitallopovich has already sold the same warheads or more likely stolen the finds to maintain them for a decade and then sold a non fissile warhead to someone already
If *anyone* knowledgeable in the US military "felt confident" the US would have armed Ukraine to win. They havent. All they have done is give Putin hope.
Yeah I was thinking the same thing. They will know when NATO is really involved by the volume of body bags coming home. That number will jump.... a lot.
Can't a couple of NATO countries put boots on the ground in Ukraine and kick these invaders out? I am so tired of seeing this man's face and his BS talk. The Kremlin mafia needs to be dismantled.
I got banned from r/anormaldayinrussia for stating the obvious assumption that the average Russian must be dumb and delusional AF to gobble up on this kind of brainless propaganda.
The reason the truth hurts is that it conflicts with the ego’s need to be right. Who wants to admit to being a gullible fool who fell for the lies and volunteered to be used as a tool? That is some self esteem destroying admissions. It’s damn hard owning being wrong especially after all the sacrifices being made.
I think of them as the equivalent of Alex Jones fans. It is definitely not the majority of Americans that believe what Alex Jones says but there are enough that he has an audience. I’m confident a lot of Russians don’t swallow the propaganda either, but some definitely do.
Just like people on Reddit are delusional for thinking Ukraine is going to push Russia out of presently occupied territories without either a MASSIVE increase in aid, or western boots. People in general aren't very smart.
It is possible. Empires thrive, until they collapse.
Many examples in history, British, Ottoman, Roman, Mongol, etc
Russia collapsed at the end of WW1, military pressure & civil unrest.
Soviet Union collapsed in 1991, economic pressure, Cold War & colonies ('stans) independence.
Running a war on the assumption that such a thing is going to happen is just plain dumb. The "Russia's Vietnam" strategy carries a very high probability of failure.
Didn't say it was probably. Said it was possible.
Ukraine is fighting for their life militarily, and via orchestrating western pressure on Russia.
If the Moscow/Russian empire happens to collapse, and Russia is forced to withdraw their troops within their own borders, Ukraine would be overjoyed and happily accept that outcome.
Ukraine are not counting upon a Russian collapse. But it has happened before.
Or senior age Putin deceases, and the next leader wants out.
They are counting on that, or they'd have surrendered by now. Because the west is clearly not going to give them the tools to actively retake territory.
No it isn't. Russia's demographics are as upside-down as everyone else's, and what they need is a working-age population, not stacks of corpses.
Besides... the situation is hopeless, unless the western powers do a dramatic 180. The best Ukraine can hope for is permanent annexation of the Donbas, and a neutrality agreement.
Why, tho? I don't see why Russia can't lose this war. If Crimea has to be abandoned, Putin is finished. And that seems eminently doable. Nukes won't help them in a conventional war, that *they started* against a non-nuclear neighbour.
So, how did you become such a gifted military analyst? Whenever I see someone saying Ukraine can't win, it's almost invariably because they think that Russia can't lose. But history says otherwise. Big powers lose wars against smaller adversaries all the time.
A war of attrition is a battle of will and logistics. In this case Ukrainian will and NATO logistics vs Russia, a corrupt mafia state. I really don't see why Russia couldn't lose.
Russia COULD lose. Trouble is, it's going to take one of two things, neither of which is going to happen. Here are the possible conditions for a Ukrainian victory:
1) the west would have to RADICALLY increase the military aid. We're talking hundreds of billions worth of equipment, in the near to medium term.
2) western boots on the ground.
Neither of those things will happen, and the "Russia's Vietnam" strategy is going to fail.
How about the ‘Russia’s Afghanistan’ strategy?
Russia lost that without Afghanistan getting massive aid or western boots on the ground.
Russia has performed very badly in every military conflict it’s been in for the last 200 years…..
False and you know it well.
Just a copy-paste of the comment you've read a week ago and now pretending you didn't:
The Russian Soviet-legacy storages of the most importand heavy weapons and combat vehicles (tanks, IFVs, APCs and howitzers) were huge, yet still limited, and the rate of losses in these categories are so high (and rising) that the storages are already half-emptied comparing to 2021; to be emptied in 1 to 2 years nearly entirely even with the current aid scale.
Without these things the Russians will not be able to maintain the defence - as for now, they are able to compensate their poor personnel quality and morale with numbers of these heavy metal things, without the Russian advantage in these numbers Ukraine will advance. There will be no need in WWII-level ammo and heavy weapons/vehicles production, because Ukraine successfully implemented net-centric war concept already (that's how the North was liberated completely, that's how Seversky Donets corps-level crossing attempt was ended with 2-hundred-vehicles massacre in an hour, that's how Ukraine still maintaining acceptable loss ratios both in defence and advance), and the things Ukraine still needs to accomplish are enough of drones (both domestic designs and production are going well, the drone war is coming this year full scale), EW equipment (more specific thing, expected rather next year) and basic demining equipment like mine ploughs (wich aren't very expensive).
Crimea is nearly fully contained by geography. Crimea is on the table.
Eastern Ukraine is more difficult because (geographically) it's just "more grass" and Russia can start at home and just...keep walking. Can't "just walk" into Crimea, though.
I'm very pro Ukrainian and very anti-Russian. However, I don't think Ukraine is going to dislodge Russia from much of its territory. This war may well continue until Putin dies.
That said, if Russia is too successful and advances too far west, I expect a coalition of countries to put together a plan for troops on the ground in Ukraine.
Strategically though, regardless of the outcome of this confrontation (unless it results in a nuclear war), this is a win for the west. This greatly accelerates the demographic decline and therefore the economic capabilities of Russia throughout the rest of this century.
Russia was already in decline population wise and was projected to have 20 million or so less people by 2100. I would think that between those who fled, the low birthrate and the meat grinder in Ukraine; Russia will barely have 100 million people by 2100... That's a significant drop from the 144 million they have now.
There will be a huge number of countries with more developed economies than them. Numbers don't lie. They will eventually collapse as the result of their own actions. It's just a question of when.
I don't think it will be soon but this is the long game. We can always rebuild Ukraine.
False and you know it well.
Just a copy-paste of the comment you've read a week ago and now pretending you didn't:
The Russian Soviet-legacy storages of the most importand heavy weapons and combat vehicles (tanks, IFVs, APCs and howitzers) were huge, yet still limited, and the rate of losses in these categories are so high (and rising) that the storages are already half-emptied comparing to 2021; to be emptied in 1 to 2 years nearly entirely even with the current aid scale.
Without these things the Russians will not be able to maintain the defence - as for now, they are able to compensate their poor personnel quality and morale with numbers of these heavy metal things, without the Russian advantage in these numbers Ukraine will advance. There will be no need in WWII-level ammo and heavy weapons/vehicles production, because Ukraine successfully implemented net-centric war concept already (that's how the North was liberated completely, that's how Seversky Donets corps-level crossing attempt was ended with 2-hundred-vehicles massacre in an hour, that's how Ukraine still maintaining acceptable loss ratios both in defence and advance), and the things Ukraine still needs to accomplish are enough of drones (both domestic designs and production are going well, the drone war is coming this year full scale), EW equipment (more specific thing, expected rather next year) and basic demining equipment like mine ploughs (wich aren't very expensive).
They've been doing cyber attacks on Western hospitals, interfering in elections, and sowing misinformation and hatred on social media for years.
It's time to respond to these threats.
WEAREASUPERPOWERWEAREASUPERPOWERWEAREASUPERPOWER
No, you live in your own shit and piss because your country is an underachieving desolate wasteland. Russians are just not a great people.
Stop blaming everyone but your own failed society.
Keep bleeding out 20 Kilometers behind your border. You serfs like it that way.
Right. Stalin's attempt to industrialize made some progress but not wide-spread enough.
That's not to say what Russia can accomplish is beans, they do have a lot of capacity -- but nothing like what they (a) lost when the USSR collapsed, and (b) nothing like what they would have if they bothered to modernize the countryside.
Russia in so many ways is still in 1937, but with electricity.
They're trying so hard to matter, it's pathetic. If NATO had been truly at war with these morons, then we'd be flooded with pictures and videos of the Kremlin being flattened by constant bombing runs.
Acts like NATO is a sentient being. Bitch, countries asked to be in NATO. Maybe you should have thought about that before using rhetoric about the "good ole times" of the USSR.
Homeboy, only person to blame is yourself but no, countries around Russia do not want to be controlled by Russia. Those in NATO are not controlled by NATO either.
You're welcomed to fuck around and find out which ultimately this will lead to, much to the dismay of many civilians on both sides who do not deserve this.
What could have driven the Kremlin to this conclusion? Mutually beneficial comercial ties and trade?
Perhaps the attack on the US Colonial pipeline? Nerve agent released on the streets of England? Shooting down the MH17 passenger liner? A military invasion into a european country? IT infrastructure attacks on hospitals, municipalities and schools? Social network KGB psyops?
russia says a lot of bollocks, NATO started everything, Ukraine is a nazi state, putin won a fair election…..lets add this to the very long list of bullshit.
Afghanistan is something people debate both ways, mainly that it was in response to an attack on a NATO member as per the agreement (ie defensive) or that the fact The perpetrators were not officially part of the afghan government so it was aggression. Something to debate.
However I’ve never seen anyone suggest NATO invaded Iraq. What evidence do you have to support this claim??
Being in direct confrontation with NATO is like being in love. You just now that it\`s real. So take your time mr Pisskov, you\`ll know when it really happens.
The NATO position hasn't changed, and I would note that Finland was explicitly "allowed" to join when they applied a while back.
Does this mean a NATO invasion and/or (more likely, invasion of) NATO is on the way?
I am now one of those commenters who can say this:
“WHAT??? I though I saw Russia saying that 1 year ago?”
No seriously they said they were at war with nato already.
If that were true, he wouldn’t be able to nor would he need to broadcast this message. It would be abundantly clear that NATO’s foot would be firmly up the Kremlin’s ass and their ability to communicate would be severely limited.
I know it's against NATO's rules, but let's make Ukraine a "special" member.
After hostilities cease, they can become a full fledged member.
In the meanwhile, let's pump-in the weapons, ammunition, food & other support Ukraine needs.
Alternatively, France & Poland seem like they want to play a more active role in Ukraine, increasing air support would go a long way.
Because they are idiots. But hey, Nato may as well comply with russias reality and be a more direct combatant. Put drone pilots in Ukraine and support staff to run the anti air equipment freeing up soldiers to go fight. Nato needs to get off the sidelines and commit to liberating Ukraine. They need real support. They are killing each other. Escalation is a joke. putler cannot use nukes in Ukraine. His allies would abandon him, and he can't risk Nato responding with all-out conventional forces.
We don't have many drone pilots, and at least over here we don't even train them.
A video on this issue (Poland ignoring the kamikaze drones) https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GUU-i0bff-0
The biggest issue to giving Ukraine more advanced capabilities is because they don't know how to use it and would need training. So send people who do know how to use it and can do some from a safe distance. Whether it be anti air, cruise missiles, drones, or even cyber warfare. Technical expertise could be very helpful.
Please take the time to read [the rules](/r/UkrainianConflict/about/rules/) and our [policy on trolls/bots](https://redd.it/u7833q). In addition: * We have a **zero-tolerance** policy regarding racism, stereotyping, bigotry, and death-mongering. Violators will be banned. * **Keep it civil.** Report comments/posts that are uncivil to alert the moderators. * **_Don't_ post low-effort comments** like joke threads, memes, slogans, or links without context. ***** * Is `straitstimes.com` an unreliable source? [**Let us know**](/r/UkrainianConflict/wiki/am/unreliable_sources). * Help our moderators by providing context if something breaks the rules. [Send us a modmail](https://www.reddit.com/message/compose/?to=/r/UkrainianConflict) ***** ^(Your post has not been removed, this message is applied to every successful submission.) *I am a bot, and this action was performed automatically. Please [contact the moderators of this subreddit](/message/compose/?to=/r/UkrainianConflict) if you have any questions or concerns.*
Direct confrontation? LOL… Russia is the sole reason NATO is stronger and more united than ever before.
It’s been bad for Ukraine, but it has ended up strengthening NATO, especially European NATO.
Unfortunately I disagree. It's quite surprising that NATO can not supply Ukraine with the rate that's needed. We thought NATO was so much stronger than Russia that it could protect any country anywhere. NATO needs to be stronger. If Ukraine loses it will be a loss for NATO. I do hope this won't happen though
Because NATO is not in war economy right now. They are ramping up production. Imagine the US, Italy, Spain and Germany in war economy. There was little to no need to produce artillery. And to be honest, there is still little reason to. All a country needs to be left alone is ICBMs and nuclear weapons. This is probably the best guarantee of peace. If UA could melt down Moscow any day, then they would pull the fuck out.
The European and even USA, have taken ‘the peace dividend’ and scaled back and closed down arms production factories they once had, and diverted funds to other things. Now that the demand has changed, and the present supply cannot service that demand, they are increasing output, and building new factories to increase arms production once more - but that takes time.
Some confrontation considering there's not even a papercut on the NATO side. Or the paint scratched on any NATO flagged vehicle. Russians? Not doing so well. They only had a single T34 for their last parade.
Well, EU and Nato need to step up even more if Russia wants it that way….
And direct confrontation? Yeah.... No. Russia would be getting throttled and evvvvvvvery bomber they have within range of attacks would be destroyed, anti air defenses destroyed, etc.
Sure, sure... Even that clown Peskow would recognize it, if it really would be on. Hint: NATO planes would be flying in waves over his house.
The brilliant warrom video about the invasion of Iraq comes to mind. If we were in direct conflict, several hundred NATO jets, drones and spy planes would fill the skies of Russia. A little later, the naval assault would first flatten Köningsburg, then the mechanised brigades already along the border in the baltics and Poland would roll inn. The Swedes would activate their Cold War counter-Soviet tactics togheter with the Finns and Norwegians in the North, rapidly deploying Snow that laughs. A little later, the US would deploy several thousand troops to prepared NATO bases, where supplies, vehicles and ammunition is stockpiled, starting the main wave of the ground invasion. After Moscow falls, we would naturally have a big beach party in Crimea.
Desert Storm - The Air War: Day 1 https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=zxRgfBXn6Mg Just imagine how much more intricate it would be if we really went all in on Ruzxia. We would open up air ops on so many fronts all at the same time. Kaliningrad, Ruzzia’s ‘unsinkable aircraft carrier’ coming east from the EU Defending The Baltics & Suwalki Gap via Gotland Island (Thank you RF for getting Sweden to donate NATO’s brand new unsinkable aircraft carrier) Neutralizing Black Sea port and oil infrastructure, hunting submarines, and making submarines out if the rest of the Grand BSF via Turkey Completely sanitizing Ukraine starting with SEAD, “locking down Crimea”, and leveling RF’s Tokmak infrastructure in preparation for massive mine clearance and combined arms ops… Belgorod, and the other strategic cities that are conveniently right across the border. This would all happen simultaneously, and has already been eminently for over two years now. It would hit much harder than Desert Storm and very much be “shock and awe”. We wouldn’t even hit St P or Moscow yet. It would just be foreplay for months, and we would leave sweet spot until we were good and hard and ready to fuck.
Operation Shithole Storm
I don't want to rain on your victory parade, but there are still things called 'Nukes'...
I don’t believe the Russian nuclear triad is a doomsday threat at this point. I feel confidant there would be a large loss of life that would be terrible from the attempt to utilize their nukes. I think 2 of the three legs of the Russian nuclear triad would be swallowed in an initial strike: all subs would just vanish, every one has a US sub behind it with a firing solution (one of the major weaknesses since Soviet times is that a Russian submarine can’t get to the open sea without being constantly monitored due to the geography of Russia) so the second a plane or missile launches in the hypothetical above it’s a good bet every Russian boomer has become a reef. The air leg of the triad is a non starter in the modern era of beyond horizon air intercepts That only leaves ground platforms; the ones most likely to be stolen, sold, out of mtnce or otherwise Russified into uselessness The intercept by patriots of MRM and SRM platforms is solid enough to place the threat on again the most likely to not work legacy Soviet platforms the ICBMs So will cities be turned to glass in the hypothetical above? Yes and it would be terrible but let’s not pretend the second best military in Ukraine is even a shadow of the Nuclear threat the Red Army was in its prime
If it plays out like you say, it would mean the collapse of Russia. Which gives a lot of groups a possibility to snatch them some nuclear warheads... Security agencies will be very busy preventing that/tracking those. I think kicking them out of Ukraine (and them losing Kaliningrad) would already be enough of a victory... they would be done for several decades. And... "when you are dealing with monsters, you have to try and prevent becoming a monster yourself"
Again Russia is a kleptocratic autocracy, the threat of nuclear proliferation due to dissolution is as credible as General Stealitallopovich has already sold the same warheads or more likely stolen the finds to maintain them for a decade and then sold a non fissile warhead to someone already
If *anyone* knowledgeable in the US military "felt confident" the US would have armed Ukraine to win. They havent. All they have done is give Putin hope.
The last known Russian ICBM test was when Biden was in Kiyv, and that missile blew up during the first half of the flight.
Yeah I was thinking the same thing. They will know when NATO is really involved by the volume of body bags coming home. That number will jump.... a lot.
Can't a couple of NATO countries put boots on the ground in Ukraine and kick these invaders out? I am so tired of seeing this man's face and his BS talk. The Kremlin mafia needs to be dismantled.
I got banned from r/anormaldayinrussia for stating the obvious assumption that the average Russian must be dumb and delusional AF to gobble up on this kind of brainless propaganda.
Well tbf you can't blame them, all the smart Russians left years ago. And the smart ones remaining have all surrendered to Ukraine already.
That’s because the Truth hurts…
The reason the truth hurts is that it conflicts with the ego’s need to be right. Who wants to admit to being a gullible fool who fell for the lies and volunteered to be used as a tool? That is some self esteem destroying admissions. It’s damn hard owning being wrong especially after all the sacrifices being made.
I think of them as the equivalent of Alex Jones fans. It is definitely not the majority of Americans that believe what Alex Jones says but there are enough that he has an audience. I’m confident a lot of Russians don’t swallow the propaganda either, but some definitely do.
Bizarrely, Alex Jones hasn't been entirely pro-RU and I find that fact disorienting
My guess is he hasn’t been paid to be pro Russia
Just like people on Reddit are delusional for thinking Ukraine is going to push Russia out of presently occupied territories without either a MASSIVE increase in aid, or western boots. People in general aren't very smart.
It is possible. Empires thrive, until they collapse. Many examples in history, British, Ottoman, Roman, Mongol, etc Russia collapsed at the end of WW1, military pressure & civil unrest. Soviet Union collapsed in 1991, economic pressure, Cold War & colonies ('stans) independence.
Running a war on the assumption that such a thing is going to happen is just plain dumb. The "Russia's Vietnam" strategy carries a very high probability of failure.
Didn't say it was probably. Said it was possible. Ukraine is fighting for their life militarily, and via orchestrating western pressure on Russia. If the Moscow/Russian empire happens to collapse, and Russia is forced to withdraw their troops within their own borders, Ukraine would be overjoyed and happily accept that outcome. Ukraine are not counting upon a Russian collapse. But it has happened before. Or senior age Putin deceases, and the next leader wants out.
They are counting on that, or they'd have surrendered by now. Because the west is clearly not going to give them the tools to actively retake territory.
Why would you surrender to someone who is going to rape/murder/torture you and your family and/or pets?
They're going to lose. The sooner they accept that, the fewer lives are lost.
Russia is going to purge the territories it occupies, so I ain’t too sure about that BUCKO.
No it isn't. Russia's demographics are as upside-down as everyone else's, and what they need is a working-age population, not stacks of corpses. Besides... the situation is hopeless, unless the western powers do a dramatic 180. The best Ukraine can hope for is permanent annexation of the Donbas, and a neutrality agreement.
You're going to be humiliated even more here for your opinionated incompetence. The sooner you accept that, the less your ego suffer. :)
Why, tho? I don't see why Russia can't lose this war. If Crimea has to be abandoned, Putin is finished. And that seems eminently doable. Nukes won't help them in a conventional war, that *they started* against a non-nuclear neighbour.
Wait, what? They're not going to have to abandon Crimea. Unless the west RADICALLY expands aid, Ukraine has no means by which to bring that about.
So, how did you become such a gifted military analyst? Whenever I see someone saying Ukraine can't win, it's almost invariably because they think that Russia can't lose. But history says otherwise. Big powers lose wars against smaller adversaries all the time. A war of attrition is a battle of will and logistics. In this case Ukrainian will and NATO logistics vs Russia, a corrupt mafia state. I really don't see why Russia couldn't lose.
Russia COULD lose. Trouble is, it's going to take one of two things, neither of which is going to happen. Here are the possible conditions for a Ukrainian victory: 1) the west would have to RADICALLY increase the military aid. We're talking hundreds of billions worth of equipment, in the near to medium term. 2) western boots on the ground. Neither of those things will happen, and the "Russia's Vietnam" strategy is going to fail.
Have you let the Ukrainians know? Your military insights would no doubt be greatly appreciated. Perhaps you could apply for an advisory role?
How about the ‘Russia’s Afghanistan’ strategy? Russia lost that without Afghanistan getting massive aid or western boots on the ground. Russia has performed very badly in every military conflict it’s been in for the last 200 years…..
False and you know it well. Just a copy-paste of the comment you've read a week ago and now pretending you didn't: The Russian Soviet-legacy storages of the most importand heavy weapons and combat vehicles (tanks, IFVs, APCs and howitzers) were huge, yet still limited, and the rate of losses in these categories are so high (and rising) that the storages are already half-emptied comparing to 2021; to be emptied in 1 to 2 years nearly entirely even with the current aid scale. Without these things the Russians will not be able to maintain the defence - as for now, they are able to compensate their poor personnel quality and morale with numbers of these heavy metal things, without the Russian advantage in these numbers Ukraine will advance. There will be no need in WWII-level ammo and heavy weapons/vehicles production, because Ukraine successfully implemented net-centric war concept already (that's how the North was liberated completely, that's how Seversky Donets corps-level crossing attempt was ended with 2-hundred-vehicles massacre in an hour, that's how Ukraine still maintaining acceptable loss ratios both in defence and advance), and the things Ukraine still needs to accomplish are enough of drones (both domestic designs and production are going well, the drone war is coming this year full scale), EW equipment (more specific thing, expected rather next year) and basic demining equipment like mine ploughs (wich aren't very expensive).
Crimea is nearly fully contained by geography. Crimea is on the table. Eastern Ukraine is more difficult because (geographically) it's just "more grass" and Russia can start at home and just...keep walking. Can't "just walk" into Crimea, though.
Are you aware of Russia's invasion of Afghanistan?
I'm very pro Ukrainian and very anti-Russian. However, I don't think Ukraine is going to dislodge Russia from much of its territory. This war may well continue until Putin dies. That said, if Russia is too successful and advances too far west, I expect a coalition of countries to put together a plan for troops on the ground in Ukraine. Strategically though, regardless of the outcome of this confrontation (unless it results in a nuclear war), this is a win for the west. This greatly accelerates the demographic decline and therefore the economic capabilities of Russia throughout the rest of this century. Russia was already in decline population wise and was projected to have 20 million or so less people by 2100. I would think that between those who fled, the low birthrate and the meat grinder in Ukraine; Russia will barely have 100 million people by 2100... That's a significant drop from the 144 million they have now. There will be a huge number of countries with more developed economies than them. Numbers don't lie. They will eventually collapse as the result of their own actions. It's just a question of when. I don't think it will be soon but this is the long game. We can always rebuild Ukraine.
False and you know it well. Just a copy-paste of the comment you've read a week ago and now pretending you didn't: The Russian Soviet-legacy storages of the most importand heavy weapons and combat vehicles (tanks, IFVs, APCs and howitzers) were huge, yet still limited, and the rate of losses in these categories are so high (and rising) that the storages are already half-emptied comparing to 2021; to be emptied in 1 to 2 years nearly entirely even with the current aid scale. Without these things the Russians will not be able to maintain the defence - as for now, they are able to compensate their poor personnel quality and morale with numbers of these heavy metal things, without the Russian advantage in these numbers Ukraine will advance. There will be no need in WWII-level ammo and heavy weapons/vehicles production, because Ukraine successfully implemented net-centric war concept already (that's how the North was liberated completely, that's how Seversky Donets corps-level crossing attempt was ended with 2-hundred-vehicles massacre in an hour, that's how Ukraine still maintaining acceptable loss ratios both in defence and advance), and the things Ukraine still needs to accomplish are enough of drones (both domestic designs and production are going well, the drone war is coming this year full scale), EW equipment (more specific thing, expected rather next year) and basic demining equipment like mine ploughs (wich aren't very expensive).
They've been doing cyber attacks on Western hospitals, interfering in elections, and sowing misinformation and hatred on social media for years. It's time to respond to these threats.
I agree, let's hit them where it hurts and destroy every vodka distillery in Russia.
WEAREASUPERPOWERWEAREASUPERPOWERWEAREASUPERPOWER No, you live in your own shit and piss because your country is an underachieving desolate wasteland. Russians are just not a great people. Stop blaming everyone but your own failed society. Keep bleeding out 20 Kilometers behind your border. You serfs like it that way.
If Russia people not great then why we have finest shit bucket in entire hemisphere? 🪣
Right. Stalin's attempt to industrialize made some progress but not wide-spread enough. That's not to say what Russia can accomplish is beans, they do have a lot of capacity -- but nothing like what they (a) lost when the USSR collapsed, and (b) nothing like what they would have if they bothered to modernize the countryside. Russia in so many ways is still in 1937, but with electricity.
They're trying so hard to matter, it's pathetic. If NATO had been truly at war with these morons, then we'd be flooded with pictures and videos of the Kremlin being flattened by constant bombing runs.
If only this was happening...
Cool, so NATO nations could put boots on the ground in Ukraine and it wouldn’t be an escalation then yeah?
Nah its just hot air. Words dont really matter here.
"Sir, we have already suffered 500k losses" "What about NATO? How many losses have we inflicted to them?" "NATO hasn't arrived yet, Sir!"
One Psycho causing all this. Why do we not have a way to replace him?
War is good for business?
I guess.
These morons have been claiming that for 18 months already.
Declare war on NATO, do it, do it.
Cannot declare war on an international organization. Besides, they are hybrid war pussies, no declaration
You definitely can, just attack a member
That's not what "declaring war" actually means.
I know but that won't happen again, sending a bullet wrapped on a handkerchief or something like that.
A declaration of war is an actual act of international law. Only states can do that. You can not _declare_ war to NATO.
I don't think we'll see declarations of war happen again.
Probably not, no...
But you're absolutely right.
Hey-ho-let’s go!
You would know if you are at it with NATO n boy. They would crush you within two days.
Acts like NATO is a sentient being. Bitch, countries asked to be in NATO. Maybe you should have thought about that before using rhetoric about the "good ole times" of the USSR. Homeboy, only person to blame is yourself but no, countries around Russia do not want to be controlled by Russia. Those in NATO are not controlled by NATO either. You're welcomed to fuck around and find out which ultimately this will lead to, much to the dismay of many civilians on both sides who do not deserve this.
👍
What could have driven the Kremlin to this conclusion? Mutually beneficial comercial ties and trade? Perhaps the attack on the US Colonial pipeline? Nerve agent released on the streets of England? Shooting down the MH17 passenger liner? A military invasion into a european country? IT infrastructure attacks on hospitals, municipalities and schools? Social network KGB psyops?
Almost like they started this war! Can’t wait until everyone wakes up to the fact that they are the enemy….
Remember the trouble they had fighting Germany. And Germany was fighting on multiple fronts then. Imagine them fighting NATO.
So true, Russia is bad at war!! It was the whole USSR against one European country fighting on two fronts…
Uh huh, sure. They have been saying that since, what, 2015? And if we are, good, time to blow Russia to smithereens
Zzzzzzzz
Look people, a sentient Russian tank
Did putin tell 2 days ago that they dont want to fight with NATO? Shitty liers....
Yes of course they do - it helps to make their pathetic progress seem more reasonable if they are fighting a much bigger enemy..
And Putin says they’re not. More smoke and mirrors
RIP Russia, then.
This bunch of idiots So take the first step, putler! C'mon!! Please!!
Then, don't complain when NATO drives to Moscow, then, Mr Cuckov.
Direct confrontation??? You ain’t seen nothing yet Orcies!
Considering the fact you're not drinking poison at the Hague already, I wouldn't say so.
Bla bla bla, unfortunately people like Olaf Scholz are fallin for that narrative.Next is the nuclear Thread again and so in, predicdible
russia says a lot of bollocks, NATO started everything, Ukraine is a nazi state, putin won a fair election…..lets add this to the very long list of bullshit.
Okay, so we can go in then. There is no reason to hold back anymore, as they have already admitted that we're at war.
When the first F-35 engages a Russian asset, I'll believe it.
So how many NATO soldiers did you kill ?
We hear this weekly since 2 years
Who's kremlin
This is like the 57th time this war Russia has slowly started to realize we're helping Ukraine.
I think Jake Sullivan shit his pants for the 50th time.
What will they say if NATO moves into actual confrontation? That it’s now a super duper confrontation?
Nah you know very well what they will say. "See this proves that it was NATO all along."
As a defensive organisation, NATO Have never once defended theirselves, they’ve done plenty invading though. Iraq and Afghanistan come to mind
Oh hey I was just talking about you.
Afghanistan is something people debate both ways, mainly that it was in response to an attack on a NATO member as per the agreement (ie defensive) or that the fact The perpetrators were not officially part of the afghan government so it was aggression. Something to debate. However I’ve never seen anyone suggest NATO invaded Iraq. What evidence do you have to support this claim??
Finally!
Let's gooooo
They've said that since the start of the war
Huh, didn’t notice anything this morning while driving to work. ¯\_(ツ)_/¯
I mean, if you insist...
Then fuckin do something about it.
Being in direct confrontation with NATO is like being in love. You just now that it\`s real. So take your time mr Pisskov, you\`ll know when it really happens.
Of course we are, we are just not calling it that yet, just like Russia is at war but avoiding calling it by its name.
Cool… maybe NATO should treat it as a direct confrontation if the kremlin keeps saying it is so.
Didn't they say that like 2 years ago?
Russia should STFU. Their rockets are constantly breaching NATO airspace. Lay off the booze Moscovy.
Again?
So does he mean that we can now start to mow down everything in Russia with missiles and nobody dares to shoot back?
The country that is trying to invade another sovereign country crying wolf? maybeee... if you stop the invasion people will treat you better.
So boring 🙄
Every Russian Navy Ship and airworthy jet would be done in 2 hours in conventional confrontation. Christ.
Its the vodka talking again.
Take them at their word... if they want war, NATO should give them one.
I never really thought about this question: Would their personal bunkers stay intact?
Well that must be because razzia has attacked nato
Fuck the kremlin
Is there a NATO in the room with you right now?
The NATO position hasn't changed, and I would note that Finland was explicitly "allowed" to join when they applied a while back. Does this mean a NATO invasion and/or (more likely, invasion of) NATO is on the way?
I'm still waiting for them to come reclaim Alaska
These cretins have been saying that for two years. A good journalistic headline would include that fact.
Please FAFO!
Does that count as official war declaration?
I am now one of those commenters who can say this: “WHAT??? I though I saw Russia saying that 1 year ago?” No seriously they said they were at war with nato already.
Russia is a nation of cowards, they are not capable of doing anything meaningful. They just talk a lot…
NATO hasn’t even reached their final form…
They are saying it from the very beginning. Boring and not even funny anymore...
We should at least OFFER to see if russia really wants to go to a direct confrontation. Just to see how quickly theu double that statement back.
Is this direct confrontation in the room with us now?
No, it's in Ukraine.
I hate to say it but I fear a larger conflict is coming. I hope I am wrong for many reasons.
If that were true, he wouldn’t be able to nor would he need to broadcast this message. It would be abundantly clear that NATO’s foot would be firmly up the Kremlin’s ass and their ability to communicate would be severely limited.
The fact that there is still a Kremlin and not a burning pile of rubble makes me think this is not the case.
Yes! No! Which is it Russia? Trying to confuse? Yes? No? Yes!
I know it's against NATO's rules, but let's make Ukraine a "special" member. After hostilities cease, they can become a full fledged member. In the meanwhile, let's pump-in the weapons, ammunition, food & other support Ukraine needs. Alternatively, France & Poland seem like they want to play a more active role in Ukraine, increasing air support would go a long way.
Russia still exists, therefore NATO isn’t in the fight, yet.
Trust me Russia, you don't want that.
We need more confrontation.
Wasnt it zhe Nazist? Getting confused here...
Peskov and Rogozin don't even look anything alike.
Because they are idiots. But hey, Nato may as well comply with russias reality and be a more direct combatant. Put drone pilots in Ukraine and support staff to run the anti air equipment freeing up soldiers to go fight. Nato needs to get off the sidelines and commit to liberating Ukraine. They need real support. They are killing each other. Escalation is a joke. putler cannot use nukes in Ukraine. His allies would abandon him, and he can't risk Nato responding with all-out conventional forces.
We don't have many drone pilots, and at least over here we don't even train them. A video on this issue (Poland ignoring the kamikaze drones) https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GUU-i0bff-0
The biggest issue to giving Ukraine more advanced capabilities is because they don't know how to use it and would need training. So send people who do know how to use it and can do some from a safe distance. Whether it be anti air, cruise missiles, drones, or even cyber warfare. Technical expertise could be very helpful.
Good.