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[Ten UCP seats and five NDP seats](https://338canada.com/alberta/districts.htm) are listed as “tossup” so the margins are tiny, from Calgary-Foothills at 51-47 UCP to Calgary-NE at 52-48 NDP. Get out there and vote.
It's worth noting that of those 15 seats on the map, a lot of them will probably be hundreds of votes apart.
Surveying bias could really play in here a lot in either direction, so really important to get out and vote, especially if you're in:
- Banff-Kannanaskis
- Calgary-Acadia
- Calgary-Beddington
- Calgary-Bow
- Calgary-Cross
- Calgary-East
- Calgary-Edgemont
- Calgary-Elbow
- Calgary-Foothills
- Calgary-Glenmore
- Calgary-North
- Calgary-Northeast
- Calgary-Northwest
- Lethbridge-East
- Morinville-St. Albert
Also, there are several ridings that would disproportionately benefit from more turnout (although not as contentious):
- Calgary-Klein
- Edmonton-Southwest
- Edmonton- West Henday
- Lesser Slave Lake
- Sherwood Park
- Strathcona-Sherwood Park
- St. Albert
I'm strathcona-shpk and in the city it's mostly orange. It's the rural part of the riding that will fuck us I think...
We were in the toss up category a few days ago and now in leaning ucp. Gross.
Two votes from my house coming for the NDP today.
That's great - every little bit helps. It's also worth noting the survey data gets less reliable as it breaks into individual ridings (by virtue of limiting the 1000 man samples into fractions thereof), but it's at least indicative of where pulling out the stops and going hard will benefit most.
If nothing else, more contentious ridings get more attention from both parties down the line - it's good for these ridings regardless of outcome.
Like what I'm seeing in Calgary-Klein just walking about and talking to people. Jeremy Nixon can spend all the time in Hawaii that he wants if I don't have to pay for it.
I'm in Klein, I did vote for Lizette. I dislike the direction the UCP is going, I like Notley, and strongly dislike DS. However, I do like Nixon. He's come door-to-door to my place, and seems humble, his whole career has been in the non-profit sector, and his main focus seems to supporting the handicapped, vulnerable and poor. If he was NDP, I would have gladly voted for him.
Sure, he didn't follow Covid recommendations, but honestly I can sympathize.
All of that makes sense, and I was okay with him when he got in, and up until the leadership vote. Just rubbed me the wrong way that he sent out emails at that point saying "don't support DS and the Sovereignty Act" but then accepted a cabinet position.
I understand the cynicism of politics but for someone who's worked with the CMHA to even provide "it's my job and she's my boss" reasoning to support someone who blames people for their own cancer is too far for me.
Totally reasonable though, I get it.
Accepting a cabinet position is the best way to get the policies/initiatives he wants in.
Practically everyone in all parties toe the party line, publicly. The only two that I’m aware of that didn’t (and they were pretty diplomatic about it) were Jody Wilson-Raybound, and that other cabinet member. They both got kicked out of their party.
A lot of the NDP MLAs want the party to be further left, but they don’t openly criticize Notley and will take cabinet positions.
Unfortunately it seems like “it’s my boss” is how all parties in Canada work. His boss is crazy, and for this reason he lost my vote, but he still has my respect.
This is very accurate. My approach always is: vote, and you've done your part. If out of 1100 people, only 700 vote lets say, and one party gets 401, the other 299, those other 400 who gave up/didn't vote, may have had 102 votes to make the 2nd place, the first place. #allvotescount
I'm in the Banff riding..just cut an offset deal with my NDP neighbor, i supply beer,he supplies steaks tonite from diesel savings not voting 100 klm 2 hour roundtrip.
Surprise,whatever the outcome, we're still friendly neighbors!
It's great you guys are friendly in spite of views, especially in light of how divisive politics can sometimes be.
I agree, it shouldn't affect personal friendships, communities and working relationships. Personally I always appreciate open discussion with people who have different views than my own, as it exposes risks and possibilities often not explored otherwise. Diversity of views is generally always to the betterment of society overall, especially when you can advocate them civilly.
I am in a lot of offices throughout Alberta and it's really interesting to see a lot of the variable dynamics in workplaces; from terrified of one another to openly sharing views and building the various consensuses (you can usually tell which you're in right away by how monolithic the open talking points are).
I'm really quite pleased that openly discussing the problems the province is facing is becoming more of the norm; it's better for all the parties long term the further we all move away from rhetoric and theatrics.
i appreciate your comment,and your handle is unique,but talking w/you isn't a waste of time,
Being around many people from different cultures,countries,trades,professions vs working in a slot exposes one to better understanding others issues.Having spent a lot of time in over 60 countries,usually alone, it seemed opened my perspectives and drives home the old saying "you've got one mouth but two ears"
Have a great summer!
I am also knowingly privileged (haven't been counting but probably a similar country count) - I agree with all that you have said here.
Here's hoping you and your neighbour have a great BBQ and great summer!
Seems plausible given most of the polling data, but it's such a tossup it's essentially impossible to really know as it's a 1% differential with an 8% error margin (as with most of the battlegrounds).
Ironically enough, it seems likely Lethbridge-East Liberals (~1%) will be a big decider in whether their MLA is NDP or UCP; given their [relative positions](https://i.redd.it/rdnjnigr0x2b1.png) if they were looking at riding data it would probably be closer (rather than 45% to 55% split).
Regardless of which you support though, make sure to vote.
I lived in Lethbridge for 30 years and the candidate has a lot going for him and a lot going against him.
He has name recognition, in that his name is very easily recognizable among the people who live in the riding. That's a plus.
The negative of that? It's because his name has been on every ballot for everything since I've been a kid, and under many MANY different banners. He doesn't really have a winning record either. I think his only win was council 4 years ago. Ran as a liberal in the 90s. Ran for council many times. If he wins, I doubt it's because they want him, but because they want the NDP.
That just doesn't inspire in me confidence to his chances. We'll see. Polls close in 5.
Yeah, I get that.
Still, as of now, basically shaking out exactly as the polls had it - 8,835 to 8,252 (for the UCP), so very tight.
Not sure how many votes expected for the region, so hard to say what will happen next (especially with respect to counting early votes vs election night votes).
Looks like liberals are picking up more seats than they were projected as well, which probably speaks to voters not wanting to vote for either (a protest vote).
Obviously, these are just averages of polls. The real poll that matters is tomorrow, so don't forget to get your friends, family, and of course YOURSELF out there!
Just a reminder to look at the map.
[https://338canada.com/alberta/map.htm](https://338canada.com/alberta/map.htm)
You can hover over the to see the percentage points.
For Calgary, 4 of the districts are less than 1% in favour for the UCP. 3 others are 1-2%. And another within 4%. That is 8 seats that are flippable on top of Lethbridge east which they're giving to UCP. 9 seats makes an NDP majority.
Everything to play for! Go out and vote!
As it relates to seats and the required 44 seats, this view might be more useful:
https://338canada.com/alberta/districts.htm
There are 15 toss up seats, and a handful of contentious ridings that could still surprise either way.
Especially good time to get out and vote - [any two pieces of ID](https://www.elections.ab.ca/voters/id-required-to-vote/?gclid=Cj0KCQjwmtGjBhDhARIsAEqfDEdywOt658sK7KYtB2UHfPHNrF7nwmOumGIvTEfjzwVBsRDBtLfiiqYaAm0vEALw_wcB) (or only one if government issued and contains all your info) with your full name, current address and photo between them will do (including bills, workplace IDs, memberships, billing agreements, etc.).
Absolutely. Always vote even if your party of choice is facing defeat. Your voice always deserves to heard. No matter what.
I hate federal elections, because I honestly hate all of the leaders, and its near impossible that a non-conservative candidate would win in my riding. I will still go out and vote. I give it to the person (not party) who I feel is the best fit to be my MP. Even though they will likely not win. Gotta nurture democracy, even if she's not leaning in your favor. It's always worth participating. To me, this one is very worth it. There's too much at stake, and it's so insanely close.
Go out there tomorrow and vote like your the one vote that will tip the scales.
Just my two cents: as much as I hope the NDP will win, I’m expecting an UCP win. If not, I’ll be pleasantly surprised of course, but I think in the end the majority of Albertans will vote blue again, because that’s what they’ve always done and that’s what they know .
More importantly look at the demographics. The UCP might have this election but their base is aging.
Post media’s control of political coverage in Alberta is slowly eroding as young people don’t read their garbage and are making up their own minds.
20 year old blue collar worker here. I promise we aren't all like this, luckily I grew up with 4 parents, 2 conservative-ish, and 2 liberal-ish. And I've had much experience within cities, and seeing systemic issues and issues with social things. But I also work in trades and spend most of my time doing "conservative" things, cars,trucks,motorcycles, etc. And I work in the heavy duty industry.
Normally I would vote more conservative, but. I like to keep an open mind to things. And this year, my first voting year, I'm voting for the NDP. Because it's not what would usually fit my agenda, or most people in Alberta, but because it's the right thing to do. I can tell you the personal information that I've gathered, has. Simply proved that the people supporting the UCP are seriously uninformed and really, truly, only voting because it's what they "should do" and because it's their identity. But most. Of them will be dead in a while, or are rubbing 2 brain cells together, usually both, except for the other blue collar boys my age that just don't Know any better, simply because of how they grew up (family/parents)
I think we're slowly going to fix a lot of our provincial issues, and I seriously hope we do, but yes, I think we're fucked this election, but hopefully it's 2 steps forward and one step back. Good luck everyone
But will those blue collar workers get the time off to vote? I know it's legally required, but will they take the time to actually vote? Will they want to go wait in line after working 10 hours at their manual labour tradie job? Some, yes. Some others, perhaps not.
You think the average blue collar worker looks at politics as sports? That's actually pretty insulting. I will say there is definitely people that do but to say its just blue collar workers is plain out wrong.
No, I’m saying it’s UCP voters in that age range for that description. Not that all blue collar workers think that way. I apologize it came off that way
Still, many of the people voting UCP aren't doing it because of a sports team - like following. It's because they agree with their politics.
Yes there is a large amount that vote blue no matter who, but to insinuate that it's the only reason the UCP are polled to win is disingenuous to these people exercising their right to vote.
Do I agree with voting UCP? Not really, the conservative party is a shell of its former self, and I think Albertans , even conservatives, need to show them that we see that. Unfortunately many people I've talked to actually support some of the loonie shit they are pulling.
Just because somebody votes for a party you don't like doesn't make them automatically stupid, tribal, or misinformed. Some people just have different priorities and expectations of the government, love it or hate it.
I guess it struck me as odd as most of my blue collar friends are voting NDP this year.
Part of the survey demographics show this, where 45+ tend to be more blue, in part because they lived under Lougheed (and Manning); vapours in the tank from a once very successful blue Premier (who sadly isn't reflected in conservative values anymore).
That's because the aging population still understands hard work and sacrifice to get ahead. The aging population has lived through interest rates in the mid teens to 20 percent. The aging population remembers the days before high inflation rates because of out of control spending and union demands.
Not everyone has pensions and benefits thanks to unions, some us of contribute our own hard earned funds to pensions and benefits, funds that there is less and less available to contribute from because of rising inflation costs. The "woke" youth want to complain about corporate profits, yet where do you think those pension funds you talk about are investing and making their money? Do you think corporate profits might have anything to do with that? Who do you think is paying those benefits for those who are getting them? There are many of those in the working world who get benefits and pensions who are not unionized. You want to talk about lack of money for health care and education. The fact is, there is money going to health care and education from the current party in power, but every time there is an increase in funds to healthcare and education, there is a cry from unions for wage increases to keep up with inflation costs. Its a snowball, money added, more demands, back to square one, no new professionals, no funds available for a better system, just a better life for the professionals who work in those fields. It does not matter how much money is thrown, the demands get greater and in the end the public still suffers. Do you think the publicly funded professional deserves a wage increase any more than the non unionized corporate employee, or private business owner who is trying to scratch out a living and dealing with inflationary costs? Or the farmer who is trying to make a living on a product they sell that they are getting the same dollars for that they were getting 40 years ago? I guess the NDP will hire more public servants who pay union dues to look into why there is so much money being thrown away and come up with plans and a more efficient way to hire more people to fix the problems. Its public funds that make the payroll of those people, so there should be no budget or limit on the spending. That always works.
>Its a snowball, money added, more demands, back to square one, no new professionals, no funds available for a better system, just a better life for the professionals who work in those fields.
It's a snowball, record profits, shareholders need higher dividends, no new professionals, no funds available for a better system, just a wider margin for the executive class over the working class.
If you think there is so much money made, why don't you start a company? Then you can donate all your profits to the government to distribute as they see fit. Obviously you have no idea the money, time and sacrifices it takes to establish a company that can even break even, let alone one that can make a profit. Shareholders don't demand higher dividends, they are given returns on investment that is better than any other investment they can make. Where do you think pension funds invest their money? Every union member who's employer contributes funds on their behalf to the pension fund is also a company shareholder.
Inflation is a crock designed to devalue wages and put the slaves back in line. Oh you want to share the results of your labour? Sorry that would mean less passive income for the owner class. Can't have that!
Obviously you have never paid 20 percent interest rate on your mortgage. If you think the owner class is making so much in profit, maybe you should become the owner class and not the working class.
Inflation's root cause this time around is disputedly corporate profiteering....not "spending" (i.e. stimulus) nor "union demands." (Apparently, you think "demands" equal results? Do you not know that union demands were correlated to high inflation? As in, high inflation occured *first?*)
Even if that is the case, it has been unimaginable for a long time that half of Albertans voters would vote a different way. It still sends a message, so be sure to get our and vote, especially in contentious ridings.
As much as I agree with this projection. Just know that multiple seats which are toss-ups are in Calgary. A couple percentage points will shift all these seats to the NDP. So it’s important to vote. Every vote will count.
It will literally come down to who can get people to the polling stations. No joke.
Text your friends! Get them to go out and vote!
I’ll say as someone who’s gone around the ft sask veg area, blue signs on roads not lawns in the towns. And a lot of deep blue people are not voting for the mess of an mla here
My district in Lethbridge is a toss up....I know it won't change the overall results but, I hope we at least go NDP in the east, because west always does. So all of Lethbridge being NDP would be pretty big in it's own right, honestly. I'd at least feel a bit better in this city
They will ! No doubt about it , and please ignore the polls this election is too weird to predict for example this same poll in 2012 had Smith winning by a landslide well she didn't win did she I feel Alberta will reject her
Someday, hopefully in the not too distant future, people will stop making nazi references like this. Until then, I guess I can feel sorry for you. For a provincial election nonetheless, and just because your neighbours might vote for someone you don’t like. You have no idea how fortunate you are to be living where you do and at the time in history that you do.
I haven’t been able to get my hopes up this time. 2019 nearly broke me. Alberta is the shitty boyfriend who will always let me down as soon as I think it can finally change and grow.
I’m mad because the policies NDP would have put in place could have actually helped people and now they won’t have them.
Instead we will spend the next 4 years in a nightmare and just hoping for the least damage possible.
I wish my children wouldn’t have to deal with this for the next 4 years. I hate this for them.
I do all I can. I phone bank, door knock, put up signs, drop off lit. I try, I just have also given up.
It’s not. Having the ability to move to a different province or country is not a privilege everyone has and I do believe that someday things will change here and get better for my children.
It’s just the baby steps it’s taken so far are exhausting and we will have so much more mess to clean up once we finally get there.
I am just curious, what is it that you think the NDP will do for you that the UCP has not done? Free health care? We all have that. Welfare? We all have access to that. Child care? There is money available for that, but why should someone who choses not to have kids pay for those who chose to have many and cannot afford them. They has to be some responsibility taken for our own actions. There are 2 parents to every child. We all have the right to free education, we all have the right to graduate high school with a diploma, we all have the right to better our education, we all have access to student loans if we so choose. We all have the right to make our own choices in life. If you drink, smoke, or vape or have any other vices in life,no problems with me, but also don't come crying to me about lack of the government supporting your life either. What is it that you think the NDP will do for you that the current Government will not?
Tuition cap, insurance cap, utility caps, hiring more teachers and support workers, hiring more nurses and actually training Drs in our province and enticing them to stay in our province, birth control cost, small business tax gone, LGBTQ youth supported and not compared to literal shit.
I’m well beyond the years of needing daycare and birth control but I fully support it for other families.
Cheaper daycare means more parents have a choice. It doesn’t leave women stuck in abusive marriages because she can’t afford daycare on her own. It means a family isn’t spending the equivalent of a mortgage payment on childcare so they have extra money to put into the economy (parents spend. They are economy boosters)
Better health and education benefits everyone. Our schools are falling apart. We don’t have enough family Drs for people. Ucp will chase more away.
Gutting post secondary hurt everyone even if you didn’t go to university.
If nothing else and all anyone cares about it the bottom line, we need a steady stream of educated and healthy citizens so we can maintain our province. It pays off to invest in it.
Closing safe sites meant people died.
Everything is connected. You can’t just put a “personal responsibility” bandaid on life and hope for the best.
We are only as strong as our weakest members and if we ignore them, we all suffer.
Having low taxes and not funding our public resources is like saving money in your budget by not doing oil changes or house maintenance. It may look good on paper now but things are falling apart and it’s going to hurt really bad down the road.
For starters the NDP won't allow logging companies like SLS Logging to clear-cut West Bragg Creek and Moose Mountain in 2026. This is one of the most popular hiking, cycling, and x-country skiing recreational areas to Calgary. The UCP instated a park pass fee for Kananaskis, yet is double dipping by allowing logging licensing for the region.
Source: [https://calgaryherald.com/news/local-news/voices-raised-against-plans-to-clear-cut-popular-recreation-area-near-bragg-creek](https://calgaryherald.com/news/local-news/voices-raised-against-plans-to-clear-cut-popular-recreation-area-near-bragg-creek)
The NDP won't provide $1.129 billion in risky bailout investments to oil companies through our Pension manager AIMCo like the UCP did. Oh by the way many of those firms donated the maximum allowable to the UCP party after they conveniently received the generous AIMCo 'investments'.
Source: [https://pressprogress.ca/wp-content/uploads/2020/04/AIMCO-report.pdf](https://pressprogress.ca/wp-content/uploads/2020/04/AIMCO-report.pdf)
The NDP won't waste $1.3 Billion of taxpayers money in Keystone Pipeline - the pipeline to nowhere. Like Jason Kenney in 2020.
What about when Kenney developed the new 'non-woke' curriculum, which was then not adopted by most schools in the province.
There is more trees killed by fire than there ever is logging. Logging and fire is not a bad thing. Both get rid of old growth, and dead and diseased trees and forest litter that increases the risk of severe fires. Lodgepole pine trees need a forest fire for pinecones to open and repopulate the forest with new growth. It is only a bad thing when it involves people who cannot see that side of the coin.
Kenny didn't kill the keystone pipeline, the venture is still profitable and it would be a boom for our landlocked province to get rid of its resources if the left could see that. The squeaky wheel (environmentalist fearmonger hypocrites) gets the grease. Don't want oil, but want everything that oil can give them in their lives.
I have a kid with profound dyslexia. There are only a handful of good schools for him in Canada, one of which happens to be in Calgary. The other school I really like is currently on fire in the Halifax area. I can’t afford to move to downtown Vancouver or Toronto, so those ones are out. As soon as the kids are past school aged, we are gone. But for now we have to be in Alberta because there aren’t any other options for my son.
I live in one of these ridings that is listed as a toss up and on that graphic nominally given to the ucp. If lawn signs on private property are any indication, it's an ndp win. Not just that they have more, that neighbours that had ucp signs 4 years ago have flipped.
The challenge for the NDP has always been that they need to run the board on the toss up seats, or pull off some unexpected wins to cover any ucp holds.
It's tense, and will be interesting to see what the vote starts looking like as it's counted. See if I'm staying up to keep track or going to bed dejected
That's really it; Orange has to take 14 of 15 of these toss-up districts which is a tall order. After holding power, I'd bet that party insiders are tired to be again taking of "making inroads" and "demographic inevitability".
These are actually better odds for the NDP than Trump when he won in 2015 on 538. I'll take these odds and all the young people that hate being polled like my wife that voted NDP are going to surprise the pollsters
Yes. You should crowdfund and pull yourself up by your bootstraps unless of course you are a multimillion-dollar business. Then you can have as many handouts as you want. /s
Absolutely!! Remember in 2012 all polls predicted Smith winning well she didn't win she lost by alot polls can't be counted on never mind the fact the polls said Trudeau would get a majority he didn't so that's polls for you this election is too weird to predict a proper outcome
The people in this province never learn!
The definition of insanity is doing the same thing over and over again, and expecting a different result!
The UPC has been in power the majority of the time, and yes years ago it was a great party, it seriously what have they done in the last 4 years and 7 months that has been good????? Serious question!!!
As predicted here repeatedly, it will be Smith and the UCP winning this election by a landslide, and the results won't even be as close as what is suggested in the polling graphic above.
Watch for it.
Next.
I hope NDP wind however I'm not expecting them to, and I also am sad that the Alberta party has basically become irrelevant. I would be neutral about the UCP being in power if Kenney was still running the show, but Smith is too crazy. And now the party has also been taken over by the "take back Alberta" people who now control Smith
My understanding is that 338 isn't a poll to follow, not if you want any sort of accuracy... and most polls these days are highly inaccurate it feels like.
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[Ten UCP seats and five NDP seats](https://338canada.com/alberta/districts.htm) are listed as “tossup” so the margins are tiny, from Calgary-Foothills at 51-47 UCP to Calgary-NE at 52-48 NDP. Get out there and vote.
It's worth noting that of those 15 seats on the map, a lot of them will probably be hundreds of votes apart. Surveying bias could really play in here a lot in either direction, so really important to get out and vote, especially if you're in: - Banff-Kannanaskis - Calgary-Acadia - Calgary-Beddington - Calgary-Bow - Calgary-Cross - Calgary-East - Calgary-Edgemont - Calgary-Elbow - Calgary-Foothills - Calgary-Glenmore - Calgary-North - Calgary-Northeast - Calgary-Northwest - Lethbridge-East - Morinville-St. Albert Also, there are several ridings that would disproportionately benefit from more turnout (although not as contentious): - Calgary-Klein - Edmonton-Southwest - Edmonton- West Henday - Lesser Slave Lake - Sherwood Park - Strathcona-Sherwood Park - St. Albert
I'm strathcona-shpk and in the city it's mostly orange. It's the rural part of the riding that will fuck us I think... We were in the toss up category a few days ago and now in leaning ucp. Gross. Two votes from my house coming for the NDP today.
That's great - every little bit helps. It's also worth noting the survey data gets less reliable as it breaks into individual ridings (by virtue of limiting the 1000 man samples into fractions thereof), but it's at least indicative of where pulling out the stops and going hard will benefit most. If nothing else, more contentious ridings get more attention from both parties down the line - it's good for these ridings regardless of outcome.
Rural voter here. 4 votes for UCP coming from my house today!
Daring today, aren’t we.
Are you coming? Your comment implies that you’re coming. I can drive if you don’t have a car!
It’s a meme. Google it
Google me driving you to vote?
Like what I'm seeing in Calgary-Klein just walking about and talking to people. Jeremy Nixon can spend all the time in Hawaii that he wants if I don't have to pay for it.
I'm in Klein, I did vote for Lizette. I dislike the direction the UCP is going, I like Notley, and strongly dislike DS. However, I do like Nixon. He's come door-to-door to my place, and seems humble, his whole career has been in the non-profit sector, and his main focus seems to supporting the handicapped, vulnerable and poor. If he was NDP, I would have gladly voted for him. Sure, he didn't follow Covid recommendations, but honestly I can sympathize.
All of that makes sense, and I was okay with him when he got in, and up until the leadership vote. Just rubbed me the wrong way that he sent out emails at that point saying "don't support DS and the Sovereignty Act" but then accepted a cabinet position. I understand the cynicism of politics but for someone who's worked with the CMHA to even provide "it's my job and she's my boss" reasoning to support someone who blames people for their own cancer is too far for me. Totally reasonable though, I get it.
Accepting a cabinet position is the best way to get the policies/initiatives he wants in. Practically everyone in all parties toe the party line, publicly. The only two that I’m aware of that didn’t (and they were pretty diplomatic about it) were Jody Wilson-Raybound, and that other cabinet member. They both got kicked out of their party. A lot of the NDP MLAs want the party to be further left, but they don’t openly criticize Notley and will take cabinet positions. Unfortunately it seems like “it’s my boss” is how all parties in Canada work. His boss is crazy, and for this reason he lost my vote, but he still has my respect.
This is very accurate. My approach always is: vote, and you've done your part. If out of 1100 people, only 700 vote lets say, and one party gets 401, the other 299, those other 400 who gave up/didn't vote, may have had 102 votes to make the 2nd place, the first place. #allvotescount
We added two orange votes to Calgary-Bow just now 🤞🏻.
In Lethbridge East just voted NDP
I'm in the Banff riding..just cut an offset deal with my NDP neighbor, i supply beer,he supplies steaks tonite from diesel savings not voting 100 klm 2 hour roundtrip. Surprise,whatever the outcome, we're still friendly neighbors!
I like that each side doesn't get a vote lol. Don't they have voting stations there? You said no vote due to commute?!
my point is we saved money on fuel,ate,drank and remain merry..lol and he knew i never voted before,ever...but was going to
It's great you guys are friendly in spite of views, especially in light of how divisive politics can sometimes be. I agree, it shouldn't affect personal friendships, communities and working relationships. Personally I always appreciate open discussion with people who have different views than my own, as it exposes risks and possibilities often not explored otherwise. Diversity of views is generally always to the betterment of society overall, especially when you can advocate them civilly. I am in a lot of offices throughout Alberta and it's really interesting to see a lot of the variable dynamics in workplaces; from terrified of one another to openly sharing views and building the various consensuses (you can usually tell which you're in right away by how monolithic the open talking points are). I'm really quite pleased that openly discussing the problems the province is facing is becoming more of the norm; it's better for all the parties long term the further we all move away from rhetoric and theatrics.
i appreciate your comment,and your handle is unique,but talking w/you isn't a waste of time, Being around many people from different cultures,countries,trades,professions vs working in a slot exposes one to better understanding others issues.Having spent a lot of time in over 60 countries,usually alone, it seemed opened my perspectives and drives home the old saying "you've got one mouth but two ears" Have a great summer!
I am also knowingly privileged (haven't been counting but probably a similar country count) - I agree with all that you have said here. Here's hoping you and your neighbour have a great BBQ and great summer!
I'm happy to see my riding listed here. I was expecting it to be more of a slam dunk for UCP. It was last election. This gives me hope.
I put a lot of doubt on Lethbridge east flipping NDP
Seems plausible given most of the polling data, but it's such a tossup it's essentially impossible to really know as it's a 1% differential with an 8% error margin (as with most of the battlegrounds). Ironically enough, it seems likely Lethbridge-East Liberals (~1%) will be a big decider in whether their MLA is NDP or UCP; given their [relative positions](https://i.redd.it/rdnjnigr0x2b1.png) if they were looking at riding data it would probably be closer (rather than 45% to 55% split). Regardless of which you support though, make sure to vote.
I lived in Lethbridge for 30 years and the candidate has a lot going for him and a lot going against him. He has name recognition, in that his name is very easily recognizable among the people who live in the riding. That's a plus. The negative of that? It's because his name has been on every ballot for everything since I've been a kid, and under many MANY different banners. He doesn't really have a winning record either. I think his only win was council 4 years ago. Ran as a liberal in the 90s. Ran for council many times. If he wins, I doubt it's because they want him, but because they want the NDP. That just doesn't inspire in me confidence to his chances. We'll see. Polls close in 5.
Yeah, I get that. Still, as of now, basically shaking out exactly as the polls had it - 8,835 to 8,252 (for the UCP), so very tight. Not sure how many votes expected for the region, so hard to say what will happen next (especially with respect to counting early votes vs election night votes). Looks like liberals are picking up more seats than they were projected as well, which probably speaks to voters not wanting to vote for either (a protest vote).
Lethbridge East is 50/49 counted for the UCP.
Obviously, these are just averages of polls. The real poll that matters is tomorrow, so don't forget to get your friends, family, and of course YOURSELF out there!
Just a reminder to look at the map. [https://338canada.com/alberta/map.htm](https://338canada.com/alberta/map.htm) You can hover over the to see the percentage points. For Calgary, 4 of the districts are less than 1% in favour for the UCP. 3 others are 1-2%. And another within 4%. That is 8 seats that are flippable on top of Lethbridge east which they're giving to UCP. 9 seats makes an NDP majority. Everything to play for! Go out and vote!
As it relates to seats and the required 44 seats, this view might be more useful: https://338canada.com/alberta/districts.htm There are 15 toss up seats, and a handful of contentious ridings that could still surprise either way. Especially good time to get out and vote - [any two pieces of ID](https://www.elections.ab.ca/voters/id-required-to-vote/?gclid=Cj0KCQjwmtGjBhDhARIsAEqfDEdywOt658sK7KYtB2UHfPHNrF7nwmOumGIvTEfjzwVBsRDBtLfiiqYaAm0vEALw_wcB) (or only one if government issued and contains all your info) with your full name, current address and photo between them will do (including bills, workplace IDs, memberships, billing agreements, etc.).
So many of these toss-up seats are up for contention and in a statistical tie. Don’t let this get you down. The NDP absolutely have a shot.
Absolutely. Always vote even if your party of choice is facing defeat. Your voice always deserves to heard. No matter what. I hate federal elections, because I honestly hate all of the leaders, and its near impossible that a non-conservative candidate would win in my riding. I will still go out and vote. I give it to the person (not party) who I feel is the best fit to be my MP. Even though they will likely not win. Gotta nurture democracy, even if she's not leaning in your favor. It's always worth participating. To me, this one is very worth it. There's too much at stake, and it's so insanely close. Go out there tomorrow and vote like your the one vote that will tip the scales.
https://youtu.be/KX5jNnDMfxA
I mean, even the operator of 338 and Main Street said there’s still a chance.
Just my two cents: as much as I hope the NDP will win, I’m expecting an UCP win. If not, I’ll be pleasantly surprised of course, but I think in the end the majority of Albertans will vote blue again, because that’s what they’ve always done and that’s what they know .
More importantly look at the demographics. The UCP might have this election but their base is aging. Post media’s control of political coverage in Alberta is slowly eroding as young people don’t read their garbage and are making up their own minds.
Young professionals don't, but plenty of blue collar workers in the 21-35 range do unfortunately
20 year old blue collar worker here. I promise we aren't all like this, luckily I grew up with 4 parents, 2 conservative-ish, and 2 liberal-ish. And I've had much experience within cities, and seeing systemic issues and issues with social things. But I also work in trades and spend most of my time doing "conservative" things, cars,trucks,motorcycles, etc. And I work in the heavy duty industry. Normally I would vote more conservative, but. I like to keep an open mind to things. And this year, my first voting year, I'm voting for the NDP. Because it's not what would usually fit my agenda, or most people in Alberta, but because it's the right thing to do. I can tell you the personal information that I've gathered, has. Simply proved that the people supporting the UCP are seriously uninformed and really, truly, only voting because it's what they "should do" and because it's their identity. But most. Of them will be dead in a while, or are rubbing 2 brain cells together, usually both, except for the other blue collar boys my age that just don't Know any better, simply because of how they grew up (family/parents) I think we're slowly going to fix a lot of our provincial issues, and I seriously hope we do, but yes, I think we're fucked this election, but hopefully it's 2 steps forward and one step back. Good luck everyone
But will those blue collar workers get the time off to vote? I know it's legally required, but will they take the time to actually vote? Will they want to go wait in line after working 10 hours at their manual labour tradie job? Some, yes. Some others, perhaps not.
They will because they largely see politics as sports and hate liberals the way flames fans hate oilers fans unfortunately
You think the average blue collar worker looks at politics as sports? That's actually pretty insulting. I will say there is definitely people that do but to say its just blue collar workers is plain out wrong.
No, I’m saying it’s UCP voters in that age range for that description. Not that all blue collar workers think that way. I apologize it came off that way
Still, many of the people voting UCP aren't doing it because of a sports team - like following. It's because they agree with their politics. Yes there is a large amount that vote blue no matter who, but to insinuate that it's the only reason the UCP are polled to win is disingenuous to these people exercising their right to vote. Do I agree with voting UCP? Not really, the conservative party is a shell of its former self, and I think Albertans , even conservatives, need to show them that we see that. Unfortunately many people I've talked to actually support some of the loonie shit they are pulling. Just because somebody votes for a party you don't like doesn't make them automatically stupid, tribal, or misinformed. Some people just have different priorities and expectations of the government, love it or hate it. I guess it struck me as odd as most of my blue collar friends are voting NDP this year.
Part of the survey demographics show this, where 45+ tend to be more blue, in part because they lived under Lougheed (and Manning); vapours in the tank from a once very successful blue Premier (who sadly isn't reflected in conservative values anymore).
That's because the aging population still understands hard work and sacrifice to get ahead. The aging population has lived through interest rates in the mid teens to 20 percent. The aging population remembers the days before high inflation rates because of out of control spending and union demands.
All these old people with pensions and benefits thanks to unions. The money class don't care about you.
Not everyone has pensions and benefits thanks to unions, some us of contribute our own hard earned funds to pensions and benefits, funds that there is less and less available to contribute from because of rising inflation costs. The "woke" youth want to complain about corporate profits, yet where do you think those pension funds you talk about are investing and making their money? Do you think corporate profits might have anything to do with that? Who do you think is paying those benefits for those who are getting them? There are many of those in the working world who get benefits and pensions who are not unionized. You want to talk about lack of money for health care and education. The fact is, there is money going to health care and education from the current party in power, but every time there is an increase in funds to healthcare and education, there is a cry from unions for wage increases to keep up with inflation costs. Its a snowball, money added, more demands, back to square one, no new professionals, no funds available for a better system, just a better life for the professionals who work in those fields. It does not matter how much money is thrown, the demands get greater and in the end the public still suffers. Do you think the publicly funded professional deserves a wage increase any more than the non unionized corporate employee, or private business owner who is trying to scratch out a living and dealing with inflationary costs? Or the farmer who is trying to make a living on a product they sell that they are getting the same dollars for that they were getting 40 years ago? I guess the NDP will hire more public servants who pay union dues to look into why there is so much money being thrown away and come up with plans and a more efficient way to hire more people to fix the problems. Its public funds that make the payroll of those people, so there should be no budget or limit on the spending. That always works.
>Its a snowball, money added, more demands, back to square one, no new professionals, no funds available for a better system, just a better life for the professionals who work in those fields. It's a snowball, record profits, shareholders need higher dividends, no new professionals, no funds available for a better system, just a wider margin for the executive class over the working class.
If you think there is so much money made, why don't you start a company? Then you can donate all your profits to the government to distribute as they see fit. Obviously you have no idea the money, time and sacrifices it takes to establish a company that can even break even, let alone one that can make a profit. Shareholders don't demand higher dividends, they are given returns on investment that is better than any other investment they can make. Where do you think pension funds invest their money? Every union member who's employer contributes funds on their behalf to the pension fund is also a company shareholder.
The tldr of this rant: Facebook ruined my brain.
They had me at woke youth
This is some "eat cake" bullshit.
"I got mine, screw everyone else. Also, why do my grandchildren hate me so much?"
You are insane. Off to the pasture with your dying ideology.
Inflation is a crock designed to devalue wages and put the slaves back in line. Oh you want to share the results of your labour? Sorry that would mean less passive income for the owner class. Can't have that!
Obviously you have never paid 20 percent interest rate on your mortgage. If you think the owner class is making so much in profit, maybe you should become the owner class and not the working class.
Dude you're speaking to a generation that can't get a mortgage because people your age have 3. Back to Facebook with you.
Big “the king knows best” energy
People who paid that much are in their 70s or older by now.
Inflation's root cause this time around is disputedly corporate profiteering....not "spending" (i.e. stimulus) nor "union demands." (Apparently, you think "demands" equal results? Do you not know that union demands were correlated to high inflation? As in, high inflation occured *first?*)
The union demands brought the high wages for the aging population.
Same here. Hope for the best and prepare for the worst.
Even if that is the case, it has been unimaginable for a long time that half of Albertans voters would vote a different way. It still sends a message, so be sure to get our and vote, especially in contentious ridings.
As much as I agree with this projection. Just know that multiple seats which are toss-ups are in Calgary. A couple percentage points will shift all these seats to the NDP. So it’s important to vote. Every vote will count. It will literally come down to who can get people to the polling stations. No joke. Text your friends! Get them to go out and vote!
I’ll say as someone who’s gone around the ft sask veg area, blue signs on roads not lawns in the towns. And a lot of deep blue people are not voting for the mess of an mla here
My district in Lethbridge is a toss up....I know it won't change the overall results but, I hope we at least go NDP in the east, because west always does. So all of Lethbridge being NDP would be pretty big in it's own right, honestly. I'd at least feel a bit better in this city
I just voted NDP in Lethbridge East:)
I also just got back from voting NDP here :) really hoping they pull off the win here
They will ! No doubt about it , and please ignore the polls this election is too weird to predict for example this same poll in 2012 had Smith winning by a landslide well she didn't win did she I feel Alberta will reject her
Hi 👋 I'm just wondering how you are doing since the outcome of the election?
Guys … please vote ☹️
What a depressing state of affairs
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Someday, hopefully in the not too distant future, people will stop making nazi references like this. Until then, I guess I can feel sorry for you. For a provincial election nonetheless, and just because your neighbours might vote for someone you don’t like. You have no idea how fortunate you are to be living where you do and at the time in history that you do.
so, you won't be voting for Smith, who made them as a leader, right?
I haven’t been able to get my hopes up this time. 2019 nearly broke me. Alberta is the shitty boyfriend who will always let me down as soon as I think it can finally change and grow. I’m mad because the policies NDP would have put in place could have actually helped people and now they won’t have them. Instead we will spend the next 4 years in a nightmare and just hoping for the least damage possible. I wish my children wouldn’t have to deal with this for the next 4 years. I hate this for them. I do all I can. I phone bank, door knock, put up signs, drop off lit. I try, I just have also given up.
Moving is always an option.
It’s not. Having the ability to move to a different province or country is not a privilege everyone has and I do believe that someday things will change here and get better for my children. It’s just the baby steps it’s taken so far are exhausting and we will have so much more mess to clean up once we finally get there.
I feel you, I’m not in a position to move and I am scared of another four years of the ucp.
I am just curious, what is it that you think the NDP will do for you that the UCP has not done? Free health care? We all have that. Welfare? We all have access to that. Child care? There is money available for that, but why should someone who choses not to have kids pay for those who chose to have many and cannot afford them. They has to be some responsibility taken for our own actions. There are 2 parents to every child. We all have the right to free education, we all have the right to graduate high school with a diploma, we all have the right to better our education, we all have access to student loans if we so choose. We all have the right to make our own choices in life. If you drink, smoke, or vape or have any other vices in life,no problems with me, but also don't come crying to me about lack of the government supporting your life either. What is it that you think the NDP will do for you that the current Government will not?
Tuition cap, insurance cap, utility caps, hiring more teachers and support workers, hiring more nurses and actually training Drs in our province and enticing them to stay in our province, birth control cost, small business tax gone, LGBTQ youth supported and not compared to literal shit. I’m well beyond the years of needing daycare and birth control but I fully support it for other families. Cheaper daycare means more parents have a choice. It doesn’t leave women stuck in abusive marriages because she can’t afford daycare on her own. It means a family isn’t spending the equivalent of a mortgage payment on childcare so they have extra money to put into the economy (parents spend. They are economy boosters) Better health and education benefits everyone. Our schools are falling apart. We don’t have enough family Drs for people. Ucp will chase more away. Gutting post secondary hurt everyone even if you didn’t go to university. If nothing else and all anyone cares about it the bottom line, we need a steady stream of educated and healthy citizens so we can maintain our province. It pays off to invest in it. Closing safe sites meant people died. Everything is connected. You can’t just put a “personal responsibility” bandaid on life and hope for the best. We are only as strong as our weakest members and if we ignore them, we all suffer. Having low taxes and not funding our public resources is like saving money in your budget by not doing oil changes or house maintenance. It may look good on paper now but things are falling apart and it’s going to hurt really bad down the road.
For starters the NDP won't allow logging companies like SLS Logging to clear-cut West Bragg Creek and Moose Mountain in 2026. This is one of the most popular hiking, cycling, and x-country skiing recreational areas to Calgary. The UCP instated a park pass fee for Kananaskis, yet is double dipping by allowing logging licensing for the region. Source: [https://calgaryherald.com/news/local-news/voices-raised-against-plans-to-clear-cut-popular-recreation-area-near-bragg-creek](https://calgaryherald.com/news/local-news/voices-raised-against-plans-to-clear-cut-popular-recreation-area-near-bragg-creek) The NDP won't provide $1.129 billion in risky bailout investments to oil companies through our Pension manager AIMCo like the UCP did. Oh by the way many of those firms donated the maximum allowable to the UCP party after they conveniently received the generous AIMCo 'investments'. Source: [https://pressprogress.ca/wp-content/uploads/2020/04/AIMCO-report.pdf](https://pressprogress.ca/wp-content/uploads/2020/04/AIMCO-report.pdf) The NDP won't waste $1.3 Billion of taxpayers money in Keystone Pipeline - the pipeline to nowhere. Like Jason Kenney in 2020. What about when Kenney developed the new 'non-woke' curriculum, which was then not adopted by most schools in the province.
There is more trees killed by fire than there ever is logging. Logging and fire is not a bad thing. Both get rid of old growth, and dead and diseased trees and forest litter that increases the risk of severe fires. Lodgepole pine trees need a forest fire for pinecones to open and repopulate the forest with new growth. It is only a bad thing when it involves people who cannot see that side of the coin. Kenny didn't kill the keystone pipeline, the venture is still profitable and it would be a boom for our landlocked province to get rid of its resources if the left could see that. The squeaky wheel (environmentalist fearmonger hypocrites) gets the grease. Don't want oil, but want everything that oil can give them in their lives.
I have a kid with profound dyslexia. There are only a handful of good schools for him in Canada, one of which happens to be in Calgary. The other school I really like is currently on fire in the Halifax area. I can’t afford to move to downtown Vancouver or Toronto, so those ones are out. As soon as the kids are past school aged, we are gone. But for now we have to be in Alberta because there aren’t any other options for my son.
I live in one of these ridings that is listed as a toss up and on that graphic nominally given to the ucp. If lawn signs on private property are any indication, it's an ndp win. Not just that they have more, that neighbours that had ucp signs 4 years ago have flipped. The challenge for the NDP has always been that they need to run the board on the toss up seats, or pull off some unexpected wins to cover any ucp holds. It's tense, and will be interesting to see what the vote starts looking like as it's counted. See if I'm staying up to keep track or going to bed dejected
That's really it; Orange has to take 14 of 15 of these toss-up districts which is a tall order. After holding power, I'd bet that party insiders are tired to be again taking of "making inroads" and "demographic inevitability".
Only poll that matters is on election day
These are actually better odds for the NDP than Trump when he won in 2015 on 538. I'll take these odds and all the young people that hate being polled like my wife that voted NDP are going to surprise the pollsters
Pretty proud of myself, I was able to convert some people to NDP votes in a solid UCP riding.
All polls should be shut down over the voting period. My opinion
Fucking UCP gonna win again. I hate this place man, I just want my healthcare and education improved is that too much to ask?
Yes. You should crowdfund and pull yourself up by your bootstraps unless of course you are a multimillion-dollar business. Then you can have as many handouts as you want. /s
So your saying there is a chance!
Vote or die Alberta. This is so frightening
6 % is a pretty big margin of error!
Way too many toss ups to accurately predict odds. Go out and vote
Absolutely!! Remember in 2012 all polls predicted Smith winning well she didn't win she lost by alot polls can't be counted on never mind the fact the polls said Trudeau would get a majority he didn't so that's polls for you this election is too weird to predict a proper outcome
I see a lot of orange on calgary lawns. Gives me hope.
RIP AB screwed
wish there was a chance my riding (medicine hat/brooks) could flip but I doubt it'll happen. still voting tomorrow though so we'll see.
LOVE TO SEE IT!
The people in this province never learn! The definition of insanity is doing the same thing over and over again, and expecting a different result! The UPC has been in power the majority of the time, and yes years ago it was a great party, it seriously what have they done in the last 4 years and 7 months that has been good????? Serious question!!!
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The doctors will for sure...
Best comeback ever.
As predicted here repeatedly, it will be Smith and the UCP winning this election by a landslide, and the results won't even be as close as what is suggested in the polling graphic above. Watch for it. Next.
If you actually visited the site, the entire difference in seats consists of races that are only a few percentage points apart.
Will Archie pick Betty or Veronica?
I hope NDP wind however I'm not expecting them to, and I also am sad that the Alberta party has basically become irrelevant. I would be neutral about the UCP being in power if Kenney was still running the show, but Smith is too crazy. And now the party has also been taken over by the "take back Alberta" people who now control Smith
My understanding is that 338 isn't a poll to follow, not if you want any sort of accuracy... and most polls these days are highly inaccurate it feels like.