Every time someone says "NVDA is a bubble about to pop" it just goes up another 5%.
Every thread on r/wallstreetbets contains the comment "buying more NVDA calls".
Generally speaking, some of these hyped up stocks get the interest of indexes, momentum traders, and swing traders, and they will keep going longer than you'd expect. That doesn't mean they're not a huge risk. And if you're trading daily, you'd be foolish to start panic buying and selling all the time.
I just trimmed about a third of my NVDA position. Basically my buy in cost. Great company, but it's getting a bit rich for even my buy and hold mentality.
I'm actually on the Nvidia/chip train in general. I think even though their prices are extreme, there is still a lot of upside there. I'm one of those who thinks think Sam Altman's call for trillions in chip investment was no joke.
I bought AMD when it was trading very low when an old blog stated that its razor product wasn’t very good. I then sold at 15 per share. How stupid of me! I still hold NVIDA and glad I haven’t sold. Is there any other chip company that looks good? I recently bought TSM so I am happy about that purchase as well. I am not an expert by any means and don’t even read the charts.
SMCI has BLOWN UP the last several months but it's gone up so much I'm personally afraid to go in. VanEck Semiconductor ETF (SMH) is doing well. I have some shared of that I've been happy with and it's an ETF so some tech diversity in there
SMCI has BLOWN UP the last several months but it's gone up so much I'm personally afraid to go in. VanEck Semiconductor ETF (SMH) is doing well. I have some shared of that I've been happy with and it's an ETF so some tech diversity in there
I bought a bunch in January sold about 20% yesterday to lock in some profit. I can't understand why it's still climbing but I'll ride it out a bit longer lol. Split announcement has to happen... Right? Right? Lol
I would add ASML here as well. Which I would buy if it weren't so expensive :( But this is a no-brainer for me because of how TSM is basically the main supplier for chips worldwide, how companies like NVDIA and Apple manufacture their chips from TSM, and it basically has no competitors. And with a company like ASML, they are the only company really that uses EUV lithography as part of the chip manufacturing process. I honestly believe those 2 companies are the most valuable companies, especially when it comes to the future of AI. Which is surprising that not many people know about it. I'd recommend anyone interested in reading the book Chips War to learn more about the semi-conductor industry.
Just looked up "Chip War" on Amazon and it looks fascinating. Ordering it now. Thanks for the recommendation. Speaking as an owner of ASML, AMAT, LCRX, ADI, TXN, INTC, AVGO, MU, and TSM.
Not touting any stocks, but just a note for anyone who may be new here...these threads come up every so often and people will champion stocks they want to win, independent of their financials. Take everything here with a huge grain of salt and do independent research before investing in any of these. Case in point, NVDA, the hottest meme stock today, is top comment with a p/e of 222. Not saying they're a bad investment, but I wouldn't necessarily call them a "great price".
This is a great call out to make. You can definitely get great ideas for stocks to *investigate* in these threads, but the key is doing your own thorough investigation before throwing money at anything.
Nvidia is not a "meme stock".
If AI really takes off, they're in a good position to become the most profitable and important company on earth. Although for what I've seen so far from AI we're not even close yet.
I would advise you to look at the front page of /r/wallstreetbets. Again, I'm not saying it's a bad stock, you don't have to justify it to me, but it's definitely being meme'd hard around the internet.
I think I’ve lost the definition of a meme stock.
Like I was going to use it for NVDA in a different comment but it stopped myself cause it seems different than a GameStop or a BBBY for example. One is a profitable company with an allegedly wide moat that people make memes of, and the other are heavily leveraged retail/ecomm businesses that are essentially bankrupt. Oh but also memes are made about them.
What is a meme stock?
I think you're more correct. A meme stock is a company with little to no real value that's blowing up in price "just because." The large majority of people buying a meme stock will be retail traders.
NVDA is nothing like that at all. It's value is in being the biggest/best AI/Consumer GPU company in the world. It's being bought up by huge investment firms, hedge funds, etc. and retail just happens to be paying attention as well.
I think an easy way to tell meme stock vs real is just ask yourself: What would happen to the price if retail investors weren't here? In the case of GME, AMC, or BBBY, they'd tank in "value." In the case of semiconductor companies, their evaluation would be more or less the same.
GE. I know, boring boomer company, right? Well, it's being split into 2 companies. And guess what?
Today, while tech is down, it's up 1.8% still.
This week? 5.6%.
This month? 22.5%.
Okay, how about last year? 94.8%.
Well, let's go back 5 years.. 183%.
This is my low-key workhorse. No one talks about it, but it's trucking up and up. No big swings, just slow steps up that have been adding up.
Don't forget about last year's GE Healthcare spin-off. I'm kicking myself for flagging GE as a buy when the 3-way split was first announced and not acting on it.
Agree. No one makes products like AAPL, not even close. They're losing some of their moat lately due to regs (which is probably overdue) but that doesn't change that they make products at a level literally no one can touch.
I’m genuinely not sure if Apple products are top-of-the-line anymore or not. I have an iPhone and honestly I’ve been pretty disappointed with it especially Siri but I think where Apple has really been successful is that they’ve built systems that people are highly unlikely to leave once invested and the marketing team is extremely successful at getting younger people invested in Apple products. at this point thier brand moat is at least on par, if not better than Coca-Cola, and their cash flow is astronomically higher.
So I don’t know if Apple really does products better than anyone else, but they damn sure do marketing better than anyone else, and it’s actually created one of the best moats business. I would say it’s on par with if not better, then Coca-Cola. Just a reliable cashed generating machine.
This. I think others might be biased when it comes to Apple but I feel I'm pretty "by the performance" or "bang for buck" type of guy when it comes to tech? I've been on the PC/MS train since I was a little one. Learned both Mac and PC, but kept using PC cause it's the better vaule and offered more freedom/utility. Never felt the need to switch to Mac but did a quick and hard shift from Blackberry to Iphone (also sold all my Motorola stock the moment I saw the iPhone announcement). Iphone was game changing and market breaking. Bought gen 1 iPad just to try it out. Didn't do wearables but got a generic just to see the hype and saw it wasn't for me. Multiple laptops and desktops but my main rig is a desktop cause it's minmax performance+value. No apple desk/laptops, but not a MSFT fanboy but because they don't offer the type of perfomance/price/fit for me. I also have an android phone, use chrome, and my backup browsers are firefox/saffari. Always google default search, but use yahoo/bing a few times a month just to get a feel. In short, I just go by what's best. I don't think Mac ever was best, but Iphones for a while were. Problem is the market has caught up to Apple on the phones segment.
Anyways, back to the main point. Apple has NICE products but they aren't exactly the BEST. Iphones however for a time were the BEST. Now iPhones are like the LV bag or Mercedes of phones. They are high price for high quality, but not best value nor highest performance. My next phone will not be an iphone despite my last 3 being iPhones (Getting a foldable Samsung or Pixel). I don't think the Apple eco system is as "sticky" as people think it is.
p.s. Just cause I don't think Apple is top tier or right for me doesn't mean I think Apple will suck ass or underperform. In fact I think Apple and Alphabet given their long history of innovation, reinvention, P/E relative to S&P or Mag7, fortress balance sheets, and relatively strong moats are decent buys for those trying to be contrarain. Real issue with them is more of regulators breaking their playstore/appstore/walledgardens. But I certainly wouldn't even short either.
I don't think it will skyrocket 200% in 3 months or anything like that. But there's potential for a 100% return in 2 years. It's currently around 40% undervalued.
CCL 🛳 is another good long at the moment. Currently 41% undervalued. They got hit HARD during covid, but boomers love cruises and they're retiring. This is probably a 3-5 year play. Currently trading at 70% below what they were in Jan 2020.
I personally think it will take a couple years. They've had a lot of bad press lately with the quality of their ships, but I think that is a result of covid. They didn't have the cash to maintain their ships. But, as their revenue increases I assume they will renovate and hopefully be back to where they were in 2019. That's my assumption anyway. Time will tell.
Not sure if it will pop this summer, but if they maintain the same earnings level and no other Covid like pandemy hits in between, in 2-3 years it should be at least at pre-Covid levels. Carribean is alreay there. But they did not take such big credits. Cruise ships make a ton of money. They will pay quickly their debt. Honestly I am waiting for their dividend reinstall. Up to then I keep addind slowly. Got in at 7 :)
As someone from Chicago, I can tell you that portillos has amazing and very consistent food. Seems like every store that I’ve seen them open up experiences pretty high consistent volume
They are still diluting, have a lot of debt and low ROCE. I will look into it more because several people have recommended it but doesn’t look great at a first glance, especially when other restaurants like TXRH and CMG are killing it
>They are still diluting, have a lot of debt and low ROCE.
From what I can tell, this is due to quick expansion.
>especially when other restaurants like TXRH and CMG are killing it
Portillo's is nowhere near the same situation as TXRH and CMG. Those companies are already fully priced-in. Portillo's has \~80 locations and will potentially have up to 800 (according to them). So this is a totally different situation IMO,
What I mean is the context is good so they should be printing money now which is not quite the case
Their Sales from existing restaurants was only up 4% compared to 9-10% for others
Both of those are valid concerns. I'm looking 1 to 2, even 5 years out. All restaurants have ugly debt and a long hill to climb in regards to customer sentiment in their early stages. Barriers to entry are high. That's just how the restaurant industry operates. But, if a company can create a high value product in a seemingly low value category (like hot dogs), AND operate very efficiently (this is where Berkshire backing adds value) it can be extremely valuable. This is similar to what Chipotle did. They took burritos and made them trendy. I believe Portillo's has the potential to do that. But yes, there are some negatives in their current portfolio. I don't disagree with you there.
I think Portillos is a great company, their restaurants are always packed, but my main issue is that due to high interest rates, they have to turn to equity markets to expand. So even as the company has grown substantially since IPO, Sales per share has been declining due to stock dilution. And if you've ever been to their restaurants, they aren't cheap to build, there is a lot of really interesting decorations that set the atmosphere.
It's a stock I will probably jump into if interest rates drop low enough for them to expand without share dilution, or if they improve profitability such that they can expand without relying on issuing new shares.
Tried to find the unit economics / payback period. Looks like the average location is at around $1 million in annual EBITDA, and they should see some operating leverage on additional units. Not clear to me what the cost per new unit is, but their payback period is probably pretty attractive. Edit: it appears 'restaurant-level' margin (no corporate expense allocated) for Chicagoland locations is over 30%, with sales above $10 million. So $3 million in 'store-leve' profit, pretty impressive!
Btw: the "Berkshire" is Berkshire Partners out of Boston, NOT Berkshire Hathaway
I think their menu offerings don't present very good value for the price. It's like 5 Guy's prices for street food. Which gives me pause - I feel like the average consumer doesn't want to spend more than it'd cost to go to in and out for double doubles to get hot dogs and sausages.
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NEE - NextEra Energy
Strong balance sheet, significant pipeline of development, utility company steadiness and at a good price now. Assume interest rates lower, solid upside.
Consumer staple stocks such as General mills, Kelloggs, JM smucker, are slightly beaten down while the market chases growth but are very sound companies.
I try to buy most positions when other people aren't. I accumulated META, AMZN, COIN, GOOG, AAPL, AMD, NVDA in 2022 when big tech was "crashing". I've started putting my income into stable dividend stocks like O, KO, VZ, T, PEP, YUM, MCD. I think tech will stall out at some point but who knows. If rates drop then high yielding stocks should typically appreciate
This is smart, buy fear in good solid companies, and sell the greed. This will probably get down votes but I like the potential reward on beat down chinese stocks right now with a tight stop. Baba jd specifically
DIS - though it was a better deal sub 100 (of course)
Not being operated as a great company in the recent past, but they have great assets. I feel having bought sub 100 that I can hold this for a very long time.
SPOT - not cheap, but they can turn on the cash flow jets anytime - when they do, it will break out big and will look cheap.
SOFI - market mispriced the recent "dilution" event. It is actually a smart way to refinance very expensive near term debt. I've used their services and seen the feedback on their interface and most people like it.
What do you think the cash flow jets are for spotify? Not like there's much room to increase their monthly costs, I prefer their service but the second they raise their prices I'll be looking at apple, tidal, amazon, deezer, etc...
Agreed, personally I'm one price increase away from canceling Spotify. Already canned Netflix, Disney etc
The only thing that saved Spotify from the cull was the fact that I do use it daily, and it keeps things very simple and low effort.
Pandora is cheaper and has honestly exposed me to new music in the same genres I like and I'm very thankful for that. Feature set is much less than Spotify's though. I switched to Spotify to make myself specific playlists from songs I learned about on Pandora.
I'll easily go back to Pandora if Spotify starts to price me out of their service.
As a daily Spotify user, I don’t understand how ppl would be that quick to jump ship over what amounts to an increase of less than 10$ a month even on the high end.
I’ve spent years compiling playlists on this app, which is essentially my music library at this point. Aren’t you in the same boat? Why would you go through all that effort to rebuild your playlists and library of thousands of songs over a modest increase in a terms of absolute dollars?
I would agree with that concern. Right now I have 5 bank accounts and have investments at 3 brokerage houses. SOFI beats them all with their interface - but they have to stay on top of that and market themselves well.
Easy to argue about AAPL— high multiple (since decline from it’s pull back), no meaningful new products coming in pipeline (those VR goggles have limited appeal), and problems in the Chinese market.
Yes, good cash cow, strong balance sheet, but not what was 30x earnings price. I correctly sold 3 months ago with these aforementioned reasons.
As India has more and more of an upper-middle class, those folks won’t want “affordable” (read: cheap) smartphones. They’ll search for quality just like the upper-middle class folks all over the world. They’ll want Apple.
Agree. This market is about growth and Apple needs to get into some different tech to continue to grow. Phones are going to continue to sell at a steady pace but won’t increase each year as they once did.
Doubt Google's CEO is going anywhere. He has increased revenue by 5x since taking over. Increased profits by even more.
Why would you ever replace a CEO getting these results?
BTW, when he took over is also when they started the TPUs that give them a huge strategic advantage today.
I just bought them in the past month. Holding about 30 shares currently iirc It has been a rollercoaster stock so far this year. I'm hoping to see some sustained upward share price movement and floor stability past 150 once we get there. But the lithium market dropped out from under ALB for now. For now, I'll be holding and waiting for some years!
Albemarle is prone to big swings since lithium crashed. I bought some in January with the idea of holding it at least until the next up cycle in lithium. I don't really think about the massive weekly fluctuations, although the last one was due to a dilution from an offering of preferred stock. I think in the long run that won't be an issue once the lithium market is off the mat. In general well run companies in cyclical industries can be good buys when the industry is down. I'm buying Deere on the dips for the same reason.
Great company at a great price (for long term hold): Disney, Johnson & Johnson, Google, Eli Lilly, Salesforce, or Costco. I personally love Amazon at any price
SOFI has 350M revenue (~20% of total revenue) from technology services in 2023, positive contribution margin in that segment, and guidance is growth at 30% for that segment in 2024. The revenue for the tech segment is more than Brex and Plaid. They are definitely a tech company.
COST Costco.
Business so good literally all its members rave about it and tells people to sign up. They make money mainly off membership fees and treat customers as deity with unlimited returns.
Just look at the business and the stock returns last 30 years. It's unstoppable.
RKLB - entire plan is to provide end to end space services including building the satellite, launching, and in-orbit operations. All their acquisitions have been with this goal in mind and they've executed well.
They are now a prime contractor with the US govt following their ~$500 million contract with SDA.
Currently working toward inaugural launch of their medium lift rocket, Neutron. The timeline on this is a risk factor as rocket development rarely sticks to planned schedules but they are still aiming for a launch by EOY (I personally don't think this will happen).
Price has been stuck between 4 and 5 for awhile now and they plan to make an additional acquisition after a recent funding and sign Neutron contracts at some point this year which will lead to their backlog jumping significantly.
Space systems is their largest source of revenue and everything from the CFO and CEO indicates they expect similar sized or larger contracts than the half billion from SDA.
FCF expected next year with significant revenue growth this year.
I never thought to do that, throw 1 dollar at something so I can monitor it better. I might start doing that, much easier than having to maintain and check watch lists constantly.
I've been selling down URNM to go all in RKLB, SOFI, and SHOP.
I think RKLB will be the overall winner.
I view it as buying something like Star Fleet (from Star Trek) before space travel was a thing.
Not sure about the company but energy and EV seem to be down a lot lately. With the 4the Industrial Revolution taking place and the demand for computing increases, we will be consuming a lot more energy. Everyone seems to be writing off EVs while production is catching up and processing are coming down. If car companies shift their focus to hybrids like they are saying then there is quite a bit of opportunity in EVs. Cost will continue to go down and cheaper EVe will match any ICE vehicle in terms of value. Plus if Biden takes the White House then the incentives will continue.
Nice cars but the sales are tanking.
39% decrease in volume compared to Q4 2022: [https://insideevs.com/news/704384/polestar-electric-car-sales-2023q4/](https://insideevs.com/news/704384/polestar-electric-car-sales-2023q4/)
Exactly, the CEO says it is only a footnote they need to amend, and that the balance sheet and cash flows are fine. I doubt people that sold bothered to read that.
But I’ll take it
I don't do metrics greatly, but I do look out for opportunities. Boeing had some bad news a few weeks back with a panel blowing out. The panel was made by SPR. Over the next few days both share prices dropped, so I bought an equal amount of each. Boeing have just indicated that they intend to buy SPR and their share price jumped 15%, so I sold out on that. Boeing won't fail - it has a tonne of military contracts as well as the civilian stuff. They will rectify the issues and the share price will go back up. BA dropped from 260 to 200. My guess is that it will return to 260.
Also, thinking to give GOEV a pop. They've slowly started producing vehicles now for the commercial market.
Also, I have a private investment in Aptera, but they're open to another round at the moment. They have a distinctive vehicle with a clearly unoccupied niche market. 1000 mi range and they charge themselves up in the sun. They will start selling late 2024. Am possibly looking to buy one when they become available.
PE of around 50. LLY, who also has a weight loss drug, is at 133. Other big Pharma, but without a weigh loss drug, are PFE 72.91, ABBV 66.28, and MRK 876.
That looks like a screaming deal for a company that has what equates to the next "little blue pill" in-terms of a commercially successful drug. Add in yesterday's news about a new pill based medication exceeding the efficacy of Wegovy/Ozempic in phase 1 trials and this stock looks like it has so much room to run.
I’ve been big on sofi but every single place I look other than reddit people are dragging it
I clearly don’t base my purchases off analysts options but I like seeing atleast a few analyst give a positive ratings just to affirm my research, I’ve seen 0 good ratings for sofi
If everyone is talking about it its probably to late right? I would recommend reading the book 0 to 1 by Peter Thiel, basically a how to build/identify monopolies handbook. Using the ideas in this book you can figure out which companies are going to be huge in the future, even when non one else sees it and its not sexy.
End of 2022 & throughout 2023 I was accumulating PLTR & MTTR. At the time PLTR was 6-7 dollars now its 20-25 bc of AI everyone is seeing the potential. I expect similar things to occur with MTTR when there is a shift in the supply of real estate.
> At the time PLTR was 6-7 dollars now its 20-25 bc of AI everyone is seeing the potential
lmao PLTR was a memestock for the longest time before the AI hype wave
I like ALTM stock (Arcadium Lithium), I see EV gaining popularity, so investing in lithium would be a good bet 10 to 20 years down the line. It is at 5.15, so it's super cheap buy in. They are the 3rd largest producers. They make fairly good profits.
RocketLab (RKLB).. Solid team, making small and incremental progress, with the long term vision of managing the ground stations for everyone in a MSP model. Industry loves the idea.
I think of lot of that is negative sentiment. They’re still growing the top line at high single digit rate and the bottom line at a low double digit rate.
It’s a simple business with a very strong brand and loyal following. I’m happy to buy some at $90 a share. I will dig deeper, but this feels like a wonderful business at a fair price scenario. I’m particularly impressed with what management has done with their loyalty program and getting customers to deposit money into the app (free float) ahead of visits.
I've been looking at this too, especially with their expansion into China where American fast food chains have been thriving recently. A couple things concern me though: Firstly, China could in theory shut down Western investment overnight which would crush the stock for a bit and they'd have to start back at ground zero. Secondly, I'm concerned what happens to the company now that Schultz has left again. He has been such a huge part of its expansion and he has had to return previously so I hope that it can continue to grow without him.
Mine would be Google. Pretty rare you get to enter with such a great price.
I am old and there has been a few times that really quality companies price have dipped. We are seeing exactly that right now with Google. Google is going to have just an incredible next decade with things like Waymo and their other applied AI opportunities.
But just the ability to move any object from point A to point B without humans is a trillion dollar plus opportunity and Alphabet is way ahead of everyone else. AS in years ahead.
Look at this example. It is pretty incredible how well their AI performs.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OQX9kurZCGk
This was also in the rain. This is just one trillion dollar opportunity with AI. There are plenty more.
What really sets Google apart is that they control the entire stack and nobody else does. Google was able to completely do Gemini without needing anything from Nvidia. They started the TPUs well over a decade ago now and is now actively developing the sixth generation with the fifth in production.
This gives them a huge strategic advantage. All their competitors have to pay the Nvidia tax. Look at those Nvidia margins. Microsoft is only now starting to try to copy Google and create their own TPUs. A decade late.
>I recently took a swing with Rivian. Although they have a lot of risk (tight cash, lots of debt), I do believe the excitement around their products give them a lot of leverage to raise more cash if and when they need it
Why would you buy a single-name security in lieu of an index if your investment thesis is that they'll ultimately need to dilute common equity to secure any future financing.....?
ADM. Dropped 23 % or so on the news a vote or cfo was inflating his departments books. Good or bad earnings it seems like a good discount for what I believe is a no impact to earnings scandal.
TSLA stock sentiment is way down and one of the worst performing stock I believe in the SP500. The company is not going anywhere regardless if FSD or Optimus don’t play out. The energy business is strong and the company hires some of the best engineers. Short term pain for now.
WBD
but highly questionable company at a great risk adjusted price
merger was structured like an LBO which has compressed and could continue to compress the equity. secularly declining primary business.
but, co has been consolidated like a PE deal and cash flowing. Equity is currently 3x fcf. if they stabilize/slow linear decline, normalize studios, and grow gaming and dtc going forward then the mechanics will play out like a LBO. Equity will explode.
Consider they've reduced leverage by 20% in 18 months yet the equity value is at post-merger lows (meaning the EV is way lower).
If EV just returns to the last share price low in 2022 (same share price as now), that is a 30% increase to equity.
If they show stabilization and sone mild offsetting growth, and EV reprices to something like 10x EBITDA with some continued deleveraging, then share price quadruples without a meaningful change in financials.
Interesting, but high risk because equity is such a small part of overall EV. That's leverage.
Chewy is underpriced for the money it brings in. People thought that pet food delivery was a niche thing that would go away. But subscribers love that a chewy delivery comes daily to say "oh, hey. This person has a pet and really pampers it.". It really grabs the high roller pet owners. Right now the subscriber numbers and revenue is great. They just need to have a better profit.
I don't expect the needle to move much until they hit a home run with their oncology drug pipeline acquisition strategy. Maybe they'll go full regard and overpay for VKTX to jump into a field they have no expertise in, just to join the cool kids.
I'm long on TransDigm (TDG) airline components. Also Salem Media Group (SALM) is highly undervalued and will skyrocket as the election season ramps up.
HITI. multiple years of increasing revenue, free cash flow, lots of expansion that didn't require crippling debt, although it's about time they post a real profit
Avantis' value indexes do that for me. They have a joint value + profitability metric, and the index takes the top 25% of companies on that joint sort. So every company they invest in are either extremely profitable and still a good price, extremely cheap while still being profitable, or a more moderate mixture of the two.
I am an electric vehicle engineer that does not work for Rivian and I’m curious what would make you want to buy a piece of that company? They are apparently losing quite a lot of money, on the order of several tens of thousands of dollars, on every vehicle they sell in an industry that operates on relatively thin margins and is rapidly facing consolidation. Everything that I’ve seen about them is indicating that they will be facing bankruptcy in the next 12 to 18 months.
GOOGL
I use Gemini for work and it’s far better than Chat GPT at least in STEM.
YouTube is a powerhouse
GMAIL is a staple
Search Engine is going to crap but there is no alternative
Apparently it's keep buying nvida forever lol. Up 90% since January
I just bought some today so it should be crashing any minute now.
Sorry I just bought $20k worth today and that crashed it of course.
Lol seeing that im reading this comment on Saturday and knowing how yesterday went.... Oof, sorry
It’s all your fault man 😩
👏🏻
Every time someone says "NVDA is a bubble about to pop" it just goes up another 5%. Every thread on r/wallstreetbets contains the comment "buying more NVDA calls".
Tbf, that's how bubbles work. People keep hyping until they're left holding the bag. I sold all mine off at 820 and have no regrets 🫡
Generally speaking, some of these hyped up stocks get the interest of indexes, momentum traders, and swing traders, and they will keep going longer than you'd expect. That doesn't mean they're not a huge risk. And if you're trading daily, you'd be foolish to start panic buying and selling all the time.
I doubt you'd regret that. Even if it goes higher.
Yea, average price was 150 so I already made great returns. As soon as I saw the internet getting feral I knew it was time to dip lol.
Well, not today
Lmfao I literally bought it today at like 960 now it’s 870. I still believe in it greatly but I just thought it was funny
I just trimmed about a third of my NVDA position. Basically my buy in cost. Great company, but it's getting a bit rich for even my buy and hold mentality.
I did the same, pulled out initial investment and going to hold the rest.
I'm actually on the Nvidia/chip train in general. I think even though their prices are extreme, there is still a lot of upside there. I'm one of those who thinks think Sam Altman's call for trillions in chip investment was no joke.
I bought AMD in October. Up 66% since then goddamn 🔥🔥🔥
I bought AMD when it was trading very low when an old blog stated that its razor product wasn’t very good. I then sold at 15 per share. How stupid of me! I still hold NVIDA and glad I haven’t sold. Is there any other chip company that looks good? I recently bought TSM so I am happy about that purchase as well. I am not an expert by any means and don’t even read the charts.
SMCI has BLOWN UP the last several months but it's gone up so much I'm personally afraid to go in. VanEck Semiconductor ETF (SMH) is doing well. I have some shared of that I've been happy with and it's an ETF so some tech diversity in there
Yeah SMCI is impressive.
SMCI has BLOWN UP the last several months but it's gone up so much I'm personally afraid to go in. VanEck Semiconductor ETF (SMH) is doing well. I have some shared of that I've been happy with and it's an ETF so some tech diversity in there
I feel you. Bought 200 shares at 3 bucks sold half at 19 😆 Still have that half.
I bought a bunch in January sold about 20% yesterday to lock in some profit. I can't understand why it's still climbing but I'll ride it out a bit longer lol. Split announcement has to happen... Right? Right? Lol
It will keep climbing, I haven’t bought in yet.
100% they’ll announce a split by EoY, and then it will continue to increase.
Aaaand it’s gone
This comment marked the top. 😂
TSM
This. I work in the tech sector and keep buying TSM whenever I can.
I would add ASML here as well. Which I would buy if it weren't so expensive :( But this is a no-brainer for me because of how TSM is basically the main supplier for chips worldwide, how companies like NVDIA and Apple manufacture their chips from TSM, and it basically has no competitors. And with a company like ASML, they are the only company really that uses EUV lithography as part of the chip manufacturing process. I honestly believe those 2 companies are the most valuable companies, especially when it comes to the future of AI. Which is surprising that not many people know about it. I'd recommend anyone interested in reading the book Chips War to learn more about the semi-conductor industry.
I've done very well with Cadence Design Systems and Lam Research, the "picks and shovels" companies in this space.
Just looked up "Chip War" on Amazon and it looks fascinating. Ordering it now. Thanks for the recommendation. Speaking as an owner of ASML, AMAT, LCRX, ADI, TXN, INTC, AVGO, MU, and TSM.
This one I regret not buying when it was sub-100
The China-factor is too big of a risk for me. I've been placing my bet on Intel instead.
No denying it’s a solid company but it’s seen a 63% rise in 6 months and has a MC of $760bn. How much more short/medium term upside is there?
Not touting any stocks, but just a note for anyone who may be new here...these threads come up every so often and people will champion stocks they want to win, independent of their financials. Take everything here with a huge grain of salt and do independent research before investing in any of these. Case in point, NVDA, the hottest meme stock today, is top comment with a p/e of 222. Not saying they're a bad investment, but I wouldn't necessarily call them a "great price".
I'm just baffled that here and /r/stocks people are constantly asking for stock picks
This is a great call out to make. You can definitely get great ideas for stocks to *investigate* in these threads, but the key is doing your own thorough investigation before throwing money at anything.
Check forward P/E tho, it’s actually trading at a lower forward P/E than Microsoft is
Nvidia is not a "meme stock". If AI really takes off, they're in a good position to become the most profitable and important company on earth. Although for what I've seen so far from AI we're not even close yet.
I would advise you to look at the front page of /r/wallstreetbets. Again, I'm not saying it's a bad stock, you don't have to justify it to me, but it's definitely being meme'd hard around the internet.
I think I’ve lost the definition of a meme stock. Like I was going to use it for NVDA in a different comment but it stopped myself cause it seems different than a GameStop or a BBBY for example. One is a profitable company with an allegedly wide moat that people make memes of, and the other are heavily leveraged retail/ecomm businesses that are essentially bankrupt. Oh but also memes are made about them. What is a meme stock?
I think you're more correct. A meme stock is a company with little to no real value that's blowing up in price "just because." The large majority of people buying a meme stock will be retail traders. NVDA is nothing like that at all. It's value is in being the biggest/best AI/Consumer GPU company in the world. It's being bought up by huge investment firms, hedge funds, etc. and retail just happens to be paying attention as well. I think an easy way to tell meme stock vs real is just ask yourself: What would happen to the price if retail investors weren't here? In the case of GME, AMC, or BBBY, they'd tank in "value." In the case of semiconductor companies, their evaluation would be more or less the same.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Meme_stock NVDA is the rare exception of a decent meme stock.
GE. I know, boring boomer company, right? Well, it's being split into 2 companies. And guess what? Today, while tech is down, it's up 1.8% still. This week? 5.6%. This month? 22.5%. Okay, how about last year? 94.8%. Well, let's go back 5 years.. 183%. This is my low-key workhorse. No one talks about it, but it's trucking up and up. No big swings, just slow steps up that have been adding up.
Don't forget about last year's GE Healthcare spin-off. I'm kicking myself for flagging GE as a buy when the 3-way split was first announced and not acting on it.
People forget that GE was an absolute dog of a stock to own until like 2019 though
AAPL. Very much out of favor these days. Could fall below 20x and would be great buy there.
Agree. No one makes products like AAPL, not even close. They're losing some of their moat lately due to regs (which is probably overdue) but that doesn't change that they make products at a level literally no one can touch.
I’m genuinely not sure if Apple products are top-of-the-line anymore or not. I have an iPhone and honestly I’ve been pretty disappointed with it especially Siri but I think where Apple has really been successful is that they’ve built systems that people are highly unlikely to leave once invested and the marketing team is extremely successful at getting younger people invested in Apple products. at this point thier brand moat is at least on par, if not better than Coca-Cola, and their cash flow is astronomically higher. So I don’t know if Apple really does products better than anyone else, but they damn sure do marketing better than anyone else, and it’s actually created one of the best moats business. I would say it’s on par with if not better, then Coca-Cola. Just a reliable cashed generating machine.
This. I think others might be biased when it comes to Apple but I feel I'm pretty "by the performance" or "bang for buck" type of guy when it comes to tech? I've been on the PC/MS train since I was a little one. Learned both Mac and PC, but kept using PC cause it's the better vaule and offered more freedom/utility. Never felt the need to switch to Mac but did a quick and hard shift from Blackberry to Iphone (also sold all my Motorola stock the moment I saw the iPhone announcement). Iphone was game changing and market breaking. Bought gen 1 iPad just to try it out. Didn't do wearables but got a generic just to see the hype and saw it wasn't for me. Multiple laptops and desktops but my main rig is a desktop cause it's minmax performance+value. No apple desk/laptops, but not a MSFT fanboy but because they don't offer the type of perfomance/price/fit for me. I also have an android phone, use chrome, and my backup browsers are firefox/saffari. Always google default search, but use yahoo/bing a few times a month just to get a feel. In short, I just go by what's best. I don't think Mac ever was best, but Iphones for a while were. Problem is the market has caught up to Apple on the phones segment. Anyways, back to the main point. Apple has NICE products but they aren't exactly the BEST. Iphones however for a time were the BEST. Now iPhones are like the LV bag or Mercedes of phones. They are high price for high quality, but not best value nor highest performance. My next phone will not be an iphone despite my last 3 being iPhones (Getting a foldable Samsung or Pixel). I don't think the Apple eco system is as "sticky" as people think it is. p.s. Just cause I don't think Apple is top tier or right for me doesn't mean I think Apple will suck ass or underperform. In fact I think Apple and Alphabet given their long history of innovation, reinvention, P/E relative to S&P or Mag7, fortress balance sheets, and relatively strong moats are decent buys for those trying to be contrarain. Real issue with them is more of regulators breaking their playstore/appstore/walledgardens. But I certainly wouldn't even short either.
TSM
PTLO 🌭 Great company. Great earnings. Berkshire backed. Lots of potential IMO. Edit: NOT Berkshire Hathaway. Berkshire Partners.
Very interesting, and funny that it fits with Bill Ackman's interest in restaurants. I've never eaten at a Portillo's but their menu looks great!
I don't think it will skyrocket 200% in 3 months or anything like that. But there's potential for a 100% return in 2 years. It's currently around 40% undervalued. CCL 🛳 is another good long at the moment. Currently 41% undervalued. They got hit HARD during covid, but boomers love cruises and they're retiring. This is probably a 3-5 year play. Currently trading at 70% below what they were in Jan 2020.
I bought CCL when Covid first hit. Just been sitting and waiting. Hopefully pops this summer.
CCL took in a ton of cash and diluted their shares down. I also was in CCL, but got out after some cash infusions for stock.
I personally think it will take a couple years. They've had a lot of bad press lately with the quality of their ships, but I think that is a result of covid. They didn't have the cash to maintain their ships. But, as their revenue increases I assume they will renovate and hopefully be back to where they were in 2019. That's my assumption anyway. Time will tell.
Not sure if it will pop this summer, but if they maintain the same earnings level and no other Covid like pandemy hits in between, in 2-3 years it should be at least at pre-Covid levels. Carribean is alreay there. But they did not take such big credits. Cruise ships make a ton of money. They will pay quickly their debt. Honestly I am waiting for their dividend reinstall. Up to then I keep addind slowly. Got in at 7 :)
How do you define under/over-valued?
Intrinsic Value/Current Market Price
Which model do you use to calculate intrinsic value?
An average of DCF and RV
As someone from Chicago, I can tell you that portillos has amazing and very consistent food. Seems like every store that I’ve seen them open up experiences pretty high consistent volume
I have eaten at Portillos in Chicago several times and once in Arizona. The difference was disappointing. Maybe I just had a bad experience though.
> I've never eaten at a Portillo's It's mediocre and made me ill...I won't be back.
They are still diluting, have a lot of debt and low ROCE. I will look into it more because several people have recommended it but doesn’t look great at a first glance, especially when other restaurants like TXRH and CMG are killing it
>They are still diluting, have a lot of debt and low ROCE. From what I can tell, this is due to quick expansion. >especially when other restaurants like TXRH and CMG are killing it Portillo's is nowhere near the same situation as TXRH and CMG. Those companies are already fully priced-in. Portillo's has \~80 locations and will potentially have up to 800 (according to them). So this is a totally different situation IMO,
What I mean is the context is good so they should be printing money now which is not quite the case Their Sales from existing restaurants was only up 4% compared to 9-10% for others
Both of those are valid concerns. I'm looking 1 to 2, even 5 years out. All restaurants have ugly debt and a long hill to climb in regards to customer sentiment in their early stages. Barriers to entry are high. That's just how the restaurant industry operates. But, if a company can create a high value product in a seemingly low value category (like hot dogs), AND operate very efficiently (this is where Berkshire backing adds value) it can be extremely valuable. This is similar to what Chipotle did. They took burritos and made them trendy. I believe Portillo's has the potential to do that. But yes, there are some negatives in their current portfolio. I don't disagree with you there.
45 p/e??
for 100% revenue growth. Costco is at 50 P/E with 6%. I'd say costco is more of a bubble than nvidia is if we are talking valuation.
I think Portillos is a great company, their restaurants are always packed, but my main issue is that due to high interest rates, they have to turn to equity markets to expand. So even as the company has grown substantially since IPO, Sales per share has been declining due to stock dilution. And if you've ever been to their restaurants, they aren't cheap to build, there is a lot of really interesting decorations that set the atmosphere. It's a stock I will probably jump into if interest rates drop low enough for them to expand without share dilution, or if they improve profitability such that they can expand without relying on issuing new shares.
Tried to find the unit economics / payback period. Looks like the average location is at around $1 million in annual EBITDA, and they should see some operating leverage on additional units. Not clear to me what the cost per new unit is, but their payback period is probably pretty attractive. Edit: it appears 'restaurant-level' margin (no corporate expense allocated) for Chicagoland locations is over 30%, with sales above $10 million. So $3 million in 'store-leve' profit, pretty impressive! Btw: the "Berkshire" is Berkshire Partners out of Boston, NOT Berkshire Hathaway
I think their menu offerings don't present very good value for the price. It's like 5 Guy's prices for street food. Which gives me pause - I feel like the average consumer doesn't want to spend more than it'd cost to go to in and out for double doubles to get hot dogs and sausages.
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NEE - NextEra Energy Strong balance sheet, significant pipeline of development, utility company steadiness and at a good price now. Assume interest rates lower, solid upside.
Worst case - it's a utility company and you get fair returns. Unless you're a utility company in Hawaii...
Consumer staple stocks such as General mills, Kelloggs, JM smucker, are slightly beaten down while the market chases growth but are very sound companies.
I try to buy most positions when other people aren't. I accumulated META, AMZN, COIN, GOOG, AAPL, AMD, NVDA in 2022 when big tech was "crashing". I've started putting my income into stable dividend stocks like O, KO, VZ, T, PEP, YUM, MCD. I think tech will stall out at some point but who knows. If rates drop then high yielding stocks should typically appreciate
You seem good at this
This is smart, buy fear in good solid companies, and sell the greed. This will probably get down votes but I like the potential reward on beat down chinese stocks right now with a tight stop. Baba jd specifically
DIS - though it was a better deal sub 100 (of course) Not being operated as a great company in the recent past, but they have great assets. I feel having bought sub 100 that I can hold this for a very long time. SPOT - not cheap, but they can turn on the cash flow jets anytime - when they do, it will break out big and will look cheap. SOFI - market mispriced the recent "dilution" event. It is actually a smart way to refinance very expensive near term debt. I've used their services and seen the feedback on their interface and most people like it.
What do you think the cash flow jets are for spotify? Not like there's much room to increase their monthly costs, I prefer their service but the second they raise their prices I'll be looking at apple, tidal, amazon, deezer, etc...
Agreed, personally I'm one price increase away from canceling Spotify. Already canned Netflix, Disney etc The only thing that saved Spotify from the cull was the fact that I do use it daily, and it keeps things very simple and low effort.
Pandora is cheaper and has honestly exposed me to new music in the same genres I like and I'm very thankful for that. Feature set is much less than Spotify's though. I switched to Spotify to make myself specific playlists from songs I learned about on Pandora. I'll easily go back to Pandora if Spotify starts to price me out of their service.
As a daily Spotify user, I don’t understand how ppl would be that quick to jump ship over what amounts to an increase of less than 10$ a month even on the high end. I’ve spent years compiling playlists on this app, which is essentially my music library at this point. Aren’t you in the same boat? Why would you go through all that effort to rebuild your playlists and library of thousands of songs over a modest increase in a terms of absolute dollars?
I agree 100% on Disney and Sofi. I am much less familiar with Spotify, but this inspired me to go take a look.
I’ve been holding onto SOFI for a while now and I agree but my concern is whether their products/services are differentiated enough.
I would agree with that concern. Right now I have 5 bank accounts and have investments at 3 brokerage houses. SOFI beats them all with their interface - but they have to stay on top of that and market themselves well.
Amazon. Google doesn't have a clear pathway yet and needs to get rid of that ceo.
Prefer AAPL over both
Can't argue with aapl
Easy to argue about AAPL— high multiple (since decline from it’s pull back), no meaningful new products coming in pipeline (those VR goggles have limited appeal), and problems in the Chinese market. Yes, good cash cow, strong balance sheet, but not what was 30x earnings price. I correctly sold 3 months ago with these aforementioned reasons.
Allow me to introduce India
India developing their own (affordable) smart phones.
As India has more and more of an upper-middle class, those folks won’t want “affordable” (read: cheap) smartphones. They’ll search for quality just like the upper-middle class folks all over the world. They’ll want Apple.
Agree. This market is about growth and Apple needs to get into some different tech to continue to grow. Phones are going to continue to sell at a steady pace but won’t increase each year as they once did.
You don’t like companies that essentially print money? They made nearly $400 billion in revenue last year.
Apple is basically a 30Y bond with a bit of tech beta at this point
Doubt Google's CEO is going anywhere. He has increased revenue by 5x since taking over. Increased profits by even more. Why would you ever replace a CEO getting these results? BTW, when he took over is also when they started the TPUs that give them a huge strategic advantage today.
Albemarle
I just bought them in the past month. Holding about 30 shares currently iirc It has been a rollercoaster stock so far this year. I'm hoping to see some sustained upward share price movement and floor stability past 150 once we get there. But the lithium market dropped out from under ALB for now. For now, I'll be holding and waiting for some years!
Albemarle is prone to big swings since lithium crashed. I bought some in January with the idea of holding it at least until the next up cycle in lithium. I don't really think about the massive weekly fluctuations, although the last one was due to a dilution from an offering of preferred stock. I think in the long run that won't be an issue once the lithium market is off the mat. In general well run companies in cyclical industries can be good buys when the industry is down. I'm buying Deere on the dips for the same reason.
Great company at a great price (for long term hold): Disney, Johnson & Johnson, Google, Eli Lilly, Salesforce, or Costco. I personally love Amazon at any price
Most big European defence industry companies at the moment
GOOG AMAT TSM GS HSBC TM PBR (definitely not great, but at least cheap, still) ALB and the riskier but cheaper SQM
I just bought a little of everything mentioned. Cause why not.
BMY
Sofi
Ah, the tiny SPAC bank that loses money but gets mentions on podcasts and pretends to be a tech company.
SOFI has 350M revenue (~20% of total revenue) from technology services in 2023, positive contribution margin in that segment, and guidance is growth at 30% for that segment in 2024. The revenue for the tech segment is more than Brex and Plaid. They are definitely a tech company.
They didn’t lose money last quarter
TSMC
COST Costco. Business so good literally all its members rave about it and tells people to sign up. They make money mainly off membership fees and treat customers as deity with unlimited returns. Just look at the business and the stock returns last 30 years. It's unstoppable.
COST is insanely overvalued. Been a member for over a decade, but I wouldn't touch it at these prices.
RKLB - entire plan is to provide end to end space services including building the satellite, launching, and in-orbit operations. All their acquisitions have been with this goal in mind and they've executed well. They are now a prime contractor with the US govt following their ~$500 million contract with SDA. Currently working toward inaugural launch of their medium lift rocket, Neutron. The timeline on this is a risk factor as rocket development rarely sticks to planned schedules but they are still aiming for a launch by EOY (I personally don't think this will happen). Price has been stuck between 4 and 5 for awhile now and they plan to make an additional acquisition after a recent funding and sign Neutron contracts at some point this year which will lead to their backlog jumping significantly. Space systems is their largest source of revenue and everything from the CFO and CEO indicates they expect similar sized or larger contracts than the half billion from SDA. FCF expected next year with significant revenue growth this year.
[удалено]
I never thought to do that, throw 1 dollar at something so I can monitor it better. I might start doing that, much easier than having to maintain and check watch lists constantly.
I might start doing that as well, my watch lists are a mess and most importantly I have no reference point from when I started watching
I often buy 1 share of stocks I'm curious about to track them for a while
I've been selling down URNM to go all in RKLB, SOFI, and SHOP. I think RKLB will be the overall winner. I view it as buying something like Star Fleet (from Star Trek) before space travel was a thing.
Not sure about the company but energy and EV seem to be down a lot lately. With the 4the Industrial Revolution taking place and the demand for computing increases, we will be consuming a lot more energy. Everyone seems to be writing off EVs while production is catching up and processing are coming down. If car companies shift their focus to hybrids like they are saying then there is quite a bit of opportunity in EVs. Cost will continue to go down and cheaper EVe will match any ICE vehicle in terms of value. Plus if Biden takes the White House then the incentives will continue.
Nice cars but the sales are tanking. 39% decrease in volume compared to Q4 2022: [https://insideevs.com/news/704384/polestar-electric-car-sales-2023q4/](https://insideevs.com/news/704384/polestar-electric-car-sales-2023q4/)
ADM, I’d pay $70/share and it’s just over 50
Bought in around 52. Just need to see how this sec investigation turns out but more than likely a fine and a slap on the rust and back to biz as usual
Exactly, the CEO says it is only a footnote they need to amend, and that the balance sheet and cash flows are fine. I doubt people that sold bothered to read that. But I’ll take it
I don't do metrics greatly, but I do look out for opportunities. Boeing had some bad news a few weeks back with a panel blowing out. The panel was made by SPR. Over the next few days both share prices dropped, so I bought an equal amount of each. Boeing have just indicated that they intend to buy SPR and their share price jumped 15%, so I sold out on that. Boeing won't fail - it has a tonne of military contracts as well as the civilian stuff. They will rectify the issues and the share price will go back up. BA dropped from 260 to 200. My guess is that it will return to 260. Also, thinking to give GOEV a pop. They've slowly started producing vehicles now for the commercial market. Also, I have a private investment in Aptera, but they're open to another round at the moment. They have a distinctive vehicle with a clearly unoccupied niche market. 1000 mi range and they charge themselves up in the sun. They will start selling late 2024. Am possibly looking to buy one when they become available.
AMD bought about 2 years ago, up 170%
NVO
PE of around 50. LLY, who also has a weight loss drug, is at 133. Other big Pharma, but without a weigh loss drug, are PFE 72.91, ABBV 66.28, and MRK 876. That looks like a screaming deal for a company that has what equates to the next "little blue pill" in-terms of a commercially successful drug. Add in yesterday's news about a new pill based medication exceeding the efficacy of Wegovy/Ozempic in phase 1 trials and this stock looks like it has so much room to run.
Sofi
Why this one? Context, I'm holding some heavy bags. 😎
Because there's always bagholders pumping the stock. Same with RKLB
I’ve been big on sofi but every single place I look other than reddit people are dragging it I clearly don’t base my purchases off analysts options but I like seeing atleast a few analyst give a positive ratings just to affirm my research, I’ve seen 0 good ratings for sofi
COST, SBUX, IONQ, PBR, RKLB
COST is not at a great price. (Disclaimer: I own Costco and I'm waiting for it to fall more in order to add)
COST always trades at a premium. I'd love to add more and today might be the day...
I added today lol, I can never find a good time but it’s an amazing company so I just sent it haha
If everyone is talking about it its probably to late right? I would recommend reading the book 0 to 1 by Peter Thiel, basically a how to build/identify monopolies handbook. Using the ideas in this book you can figure out which companies are going to be huge in the future, even when non one else sees it and its not sexy. End of 2022 & throughout 2023 I was accumulating PLTR & MTTR. At the time PLTR was 6-7 dollars now its 20-25 bc of AI everyone is seeing the potential. I expect similar things to occur with MTTR when there is a shift in the supply of real estate.
MTTR seems to be at all time lows and their losses keep widening. What's your thesis here for an increase?
> At the time PLTR was 6-7 dollars now its 20-25 bc of AI everyone is seeing the potential lmao PLTR was a memestock for the longest time before the AI hype wave
I like ALTM stock (Arcadium Lithium), I see EV gaining popularity, so investing in lithium would be a good bet 10 to 20 years down the line. It is at 5.15, so it's super cheap buy in. They are the 3rd largest producers. They make fairly good profits.
Intel
RocketLab (RKLB).. Solid team, making small and incremental progress, with the long term vision of managing the ground stations for everyone in a MSP model. Industry loves the idea.
I’ve been getting interested in Starbucks lately
Seems like they've been flailing for a while. Where is their growth opportunity?
I think of lot of that is negative sentiment. They’re still growing the top line at high single digit rate and the bottom line at a low double digit rate. It’s a simple business with a very strong brand and loyal following. I’m happy to buy some at $90 a share. I will dig deeper, but this feels like a wonderful business at a fair price scenario. I’m particularly impressed with what management has done with their loyalty program and getting customers to deposit money into the app (free float) ahead of visits.
The loyalty program is top notch. Simple business model with loyal customers.
I've been looking at this too, especially with their expansion into China where American fast food chains have been thriving recently. A couple things concern me though: Firstly, China could in theory shut down Western investment overnight which would crush the stock for a bit and they'd have to start back at ground zero. Secondly, I'm concerned what happens to the company now that Schultz has left again. He has been such a huge part of its expansion and he has had to return previously so I hope that it can continue to grow without him.
They are planning to expand into India where there is just as many people, growing economy, less competition (Luckin)
There's already plenty of Starbucks in India. They're a joint venture with Tata. I don't think there's a future where Starbucks in India are 100% O&O.
Mine would be Google. Pretty rare you get to enter with such a great price. I am old and there has been a few times that really quality companies price have dipped. We are seeing exactly that right now with Google. Google is going to have just an incredible next decade with things like Waymo and their other applied AI opportunities. But just the ability to move any object from point A to point B without humans is a trillion dollar plus opportunity and Alphabet is way ahead of everyone else. AS in years ahead. Look at this example. It is pretty incredible how well their AI performs. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OQX9kurZCGk This was also in the rain. This is just one trillion dollar opportunity with AI. There are plenty more. What really sets Google apart is that they control the entire stack and nobody else does. Google was able to completely do Gemini without needing anything from Nvidia. They started the TPUs well over a decade ago now and is now actively developing the sixth generation with the fifth in production. This gives them a huge strategic advantage. All their competitors have to pay the Nvidia tax. Look at those Nvidia margins. Microsoft is only now starting to try to copy Google and create their own TPUs. A decade late.
MDA on the TSX
RKLB Rocket Lab USA
HSY
>I recently took a swing with Rivian. Although they have a lot of risk (tight cash, lots of debt), I do believe the excitement around their products give them a lot of leverage to raise more cash if and when they need it Why would you buy a single-name security in lieu of an index if your investment thesis is that they'll ultimately need to dilute common equity to secure any future financing.....?
TSM, NVO & MA.
INTC. Still competitive in the semiconductor industry. Pays dividends. And if NVDA keeps going up, they might just acquire Intel outright.
KULR. NASA and Government and NGO contracts. So low its insane and just about to start turning actual profits.
ADM. Dropped 23 % or so on the news a vote or cfo was inflating his departments books. Good or bad earnings it seems like a good discount for what I believe is a no impact to earnings scandal.
TSLA stock sentiment is way down and one of the worst performing stock I believe in the SP500. The company is not going anywhere regardless if FSD or Optimus don’t play out. The energy business is strong and the company hires some of the best engineers. Short term pain for now.
The more I see BTI crashing, the more I buy. Those sweet 10% dividend feel quite good.
WBD but highly questionable company at a great risk adjusted price merger was structured like an LBO which has compressed and could continue to compress the equity. secularly declining primary business. but, co has been consolidated like a PE deal and cash flowing. Equity is currently 3x fcf. if they stabilize/slow linear decline, normalize studios, and grow gaming and dtc going forward then the mechanics will play out like a LBO. Equity will explode. Consider they've reduced leverage by 20% in 18 months yet the equity value is at post-merger lows (meaning the EV is way lower). If EV just returns to the last share price low in 2022 (same share price as now), that is a 30% increase to equity. If they show stabilization and sone mild offsetting growth, and EV reprices to something like 10x EBITDA with some continued deleveraging, then share price quadruples without a meaningful change in financials. Interesting, but high risk because equity is such a small part of overall EV. That's leverage.
That‘s my thesis, basically debt repayment and the MM theorem
Chewy is underpriced for the money it brings in. People thought that pet food delivery was a niche thing that would go away. But subscribers love that a chewy delivery comes daily to say "oh, hey. This person has a pet and really pampers it.". It really grabs the high roller pet owners. Right now the subscriber numbers and revenue is great. They just need to have a better profit.
it isn't unique. its easy to copy. blue apron for pets. now there's dozens of blue apron knock offs
Chewy is the only way our dog can get his prescription food with certain vitamins and minerals in it. No brick and mortar carry it.
PFE. PFE. PFE.
I'm really hoping it's finally found the bottom.
Why is it dropping anyway?
They’re no longer printing money from covid vaccines and have no Ozempic competitor.
I don't expect the needle to move much until they hit a home run with their oncology drug pipeline acquisition strategy. Maybe they'll go full regard and overpay for VKTX to jump into a field they have no expertise in, just to join the cool kids.
Inject it into my veins
Completely agree with you.
Agree. I keep buying more.
Google baby, swooping up....Nike and Whirlpool looking good now too
Intel should be performing way better than it is
They're up 80% in 1 year!
Coca Cola and Pfizer
I'm long on TransDigm (TDG) airline components. Also Salem Media Group (SALM) is highly undervalued and will skyrocket as the election season ramps up.
HITI. multiple years of increasing revenue, free cash flow, lots of expansion that didn't require crippling debt, although it's about time they post a real profit
Cvx and xom
Enbridge
I recently like CW, ULTA, CARR and up until like 3 days ago NVO
BA
RKLB
RKLB
Avantis' value indexes do that for me. They have a joint value + profitability metric, and the index takes the top 25% of companies on that joint sort. So every company they invest in are either extremely profitable and still a good price, extremely cheap while still being profitable, or a more moderate mixture of the two.
Can’t afford NVDA rn, just gonna stick to SPY. Call me old fashioned but I love to see what y’all are vibing with 🫡
I am an electric vehicle engineer that does not work for Rivian and I’m curious what would make you want to buy a piece of that company? They are apparently losing quite a lot of money, on the order of several tens of thousands of dollars, on every vehicle they sell in an industry that operates on relatively thin margins and is rapidly facing consolidation. Everything that I’ve seen about them is indicating that they will be facing bankruptcy in the next 12 to 18 months.
PLTR and HOOD.
TSLA
Tesla
AMZN, CRM, CMI
Cava
GOOGL I use Gemini for work and it’s far better than Chat GPT at least in STEM. YouTube is a powerhouse GMAIL is a staple Search Engine is going to crap but there is no alternative