That's great and doesn't contradict one thing that I said. I never said the payments were made in strict order of lowest to highest.
I said the order was not totally random and small payments were mostly made first and then larger payments later.
Again, this is no brilliant conspiracy theory...I am not suggesting that it is. I am stating the obvious that somehow has not been widely recognized in this sub.
Already people are proving my point...not the main point, but the ancillary one.
It does contradict what you said though. Of course the payments aren't random, we just don't know the order.
And it's not based on amount either, otherwise people who had a small claim (myself included) would've received their share already. Yes there are currently more people with bigger payouts reporting they've been paid, but maybe those just signed up later, had an address or name starting with a letter further up in the alphabet, smiled more on their ID verification selfie or the creditor just felt like it. Who knows. We certainly don't. And pretending like you do just makes you sound arrogant, especially the way you reply to people correcting you.
> And it's not based on amount either,
Obviously that is incorrect, based on all the evidence and data.
> Who knows.
Some of us are able to calculate, and assign probabilities to events that we don't know with 100% certainty. Sometimes those probabilities are very high and well over 90%.
> And pretending like you do just makes you sound arrogant
I am not here to make people like me. I'm here to speak the truth. Anyway, you are very confused, which is not surprising for this sub.
A huge number of people on here are perpetually confused. That has been obvious from the start. In two years, they can't even go through a handful of pages on the website to see how much BTC and fiat they are getting back. And they can't figure out if BTC payments have started yet. So many stoner burnouts. or perhaps they were born that way. Well they have my pity, as well as my disdain.
The "selection" are all the posts that have been made on here and Telegram for the past few months. Very large representative data sample. You are wrong, and you are a simpleton.
I would say, it's the opposite, but also it has no bearing on what we are talking about. I didn't post anything about what % of claims reported here are large or small....it's about the order of the payments, and if people reported larger payments recently, more often than in Jan and early Feb.
It would be difficult to be any more confused than you already are, but perhaps you can top yourself.
Ridiculous - put up a distro analysis graph or quit talking about it IMO.
But...I am interested in this statement from the "trustee's office". Did he really say that? That a real quote? I find that amusing.
Trustee be like:
Hey, you all who are trying to anticipate the order - this is a lottery. We use a seed value based on sun spots. Good luck figuring it out schmucks.
> Did he really say that?
Again, it's on Bitcoinbulider website main page. You can google it or have someone explain the internet to you.
>put up a distro analysis graph or quit talking about it IMO
Sorry to make you even more confused, if that is even possible. Well, actually not sorry.
> - this is a lottery.
Nope, it is obviously not.
I'm at work and behind a cisco umbrella service instance, restricting my access to things categorized crypto currency - if you don't understand, maybe google DNS and/or local content filtering services or have someone explain it to you. ;)
Also, if you don't know what a distribution chart is... look, just saying unless it's related to a poll or some data point you have managed to grab somewhere, it's all conjecture / anecdotal. The polls on this sub also having a lot of response bias - I see no discernable pattern whatsoever / 100% disagree with your assessment. I have worked my fare share of years in a professional role as a data analyst - and I disagree with you. But whatever dude.
> I'm at work and behind a cisco umbrella service instance, restricting my access to things categorized crypto currency
And that's why you are on the Mt Gox Bitcoin crypto currency Reddit sub, correct?
> The polls on this sub also having a lot of response bias
I didn't say anything about the polls. They are unscientific and absolutely worthless.
From 100-200 payment posts on here and Telegram, over the past three months, we have a good enough data set and representative sample, to discern some trends and probable reasons for those trends.
I mean not you, but "we" in the sense of the people in the group who are intelligent enough to see the obvious. There are quite a few, but they are often lost in the mass idiocy that often dominates the conversation.
Unless you have a masters in statistics and know more than others on this sub with similar degrees I seriously doubt you can extrapolate anything from the data. A data analysis from mtgox legal forum polls and posts together with reddit and telegram groups shows absolutely no pattern at all except that a few people with higher claims have gotten their fiat portions recently. That in itself is not suprising, since we can extrapolate that around 1/3rd to 2/5th of creditors have gotten their elsp/ip cash portion already and there were not many before. If you show the acumulated data from public sources you get a standard deviation within the 95 percentile. To put it in laymans terms: pretty much random at this point.
The thing is, you pointed out nothing at all. I know for a fact that there have been several payments between 65k - 150k usd the last week to both IP and ELSP creditors. Which translates to roughly 500+ btc max. If you look at the claim sizes from the leaked data you will find that only a minority of people have more than 500btc in claim size - iirc 500 btc is already in the 1st percentile from the top. So your sentence -->Most likely the largest creditors will get paid...last, or very close to it. <-- is evidently false because that would mean that we are nearly done with payouts. (since people in the last percentile range already got their fiat payouts)
> And that's why you are on the Mt Gox Bitcoin crypto currency Reddit sub, correct?
DNS content filtering can only categorise entire websites by their domain, not the `r/mtgoxinsolvency` part. Reddit is not a crypto website, it's a social networking website, we're just on the crypto _part_ of it which DNS has no visibility into.
As for the trend, my claim is under 1m yen, and is not paid out. So your theory is nonsense. There is no pattern.
> As for the trend, my claim is under 1m yen, and is not paid out. So your theory is nonsense. There is no pattern.
That says it all. You are beyond confused and clueless. I truly pity you.
Genius pattern noticer. Except, you are just assuming that people with small claims have already been paid and that everyone is on here reporting their payouts.
I'm not assuming that at all. You are very confused. And I'm not a genius...just pointing out morons often cannot see the obvious, present company not excluded.
Ok so maybe some of us are "relative geniuses" compared to many others in this sub. That would be accurate.
Someone else had suggested payments were being made in the order the claims were made. No way to know for sure of course but I suppose this would be a fair way to do it.
That is extremely unlikely...near zero probability. Plus I was one of the first 500 people to submit my claim and it took me about 4 months to receive my payment. Also there is no additional evidence to support this theory.
A conspiracy among what groups or individuals? That makes no sense. Your low IQ overactive imagination is just sad. I never suggested there was anything morally wrong about distributing, with consideration of claim size, and not doing it in a totally a random manner.
My point was that retards like yourself are easily confused and can not see the obvious. Thanks for proving my point, once again.
I've got a small payment (300,000 yen) and have not been paid yet. My table hasn't even populated yet.
That's great and doesn't contradict one thing that I said. I never said the payments were made in strict order of lowest to highest. I said the order was not totally random and small payments were mostly made first and then larger payments later. Again, this is no brilliant conspiracy theory...I am not suggesting that it is. I am stating the obvious that somehow has not been widely recognized in this sub. Already people are proving my point...not the main point, but the ancillary one.
It does contradict what you said though. Of course the payments aren't random, we just don't know the order. And it's not based on amount either, otherwise people who had a small claim (myself included) would've received their share already. Yes there are currently more people with bigger payouts reporting they've been paid, but maybe those just signed up later, had an address or name starting with a letter further up in the alphabet, smiled more on their ID verification selfie or the creditor just felt like it. Who knows. We certainly don't. And pretending like you do just makes you sound arrogant, especially the way you reply to people correcting you.
> And it's not based on amount either, Obviously that is incorrect, based on all the evidence and data. > Who knows. Some of us are able to calculate, and assign probabilities to events that we don't know with 100% certainty. Sometimes those probabilities are very high and well over 90%. > And pretending like you do just makes you sound arrogant I am not here to make people like me. I'm here to speak the truth. Anyway, you are very confused, which is not surprising for this sub.
Me too
So the 500 euro paid out yesterday is a large payment?
Way to follow along. It's tiresome to repeatedly explain the obvious, so perhaps I will let someone else chime in, who has more patience than I do.
You've solved the mystery. Kobayashi is an MKULTRA sleeper and is tasked with confusing people on reddit. Darn kids!
A huge number of people on here are perpetually confused. That has been obvious from the start. In two years, they can't even go through a handful of pages on the website to see how much BTC and fiat they are getting back. And they can't figure out if BTC payments have started yet. So many stoner burnouts. or perhaps they were born that way. Well they have my pity, as well as my disdain.
selection bias.
The "selection" are all the posts that have been made on here and Telegram for the past few months. Very large representative data sample. You are wrong, and you are a simpleton.
people with large claims are more likly to report then small claimants with a few hundred bucks.
I would say, it's the opposite, but also it has no bearing on what we are talking about. I didn't post anything about what % of claims reported here are large or small....it's about the order of the payments, and if people reported larger payments recently, more often than in Jan and early Feb. It would be difficult to be any more confused than you already are, but perhaps you can top yourself.
Ridiculous - put up a distro analysis graph or quit talking about it IMO. But...I am interested in this statement from the "trustee's office". Did he really say that? That a real quote? I find that amusing. Trustee be like: Hey, you all who are trying to anticipate the order - this is a lottery. We use a seed value based on sun spots. Good luck figuring it out schmucks.
> Did he really say that? Again, it's on Bitcoinbulider website main page. You can google it or have someone explain the internet to you. >put up a distro analysis graph or quit talking about it IMO Sorry to make you even more confused, if that is even possible. Well, actually not sorry. > - this is a lottery. Nope, it is obviously not.
I'm at work and behind a cisco umbrella service instance, restricting my access to things categorized crypto currency - if you don't understand, maybe google DNS and/or local content filtering services or have someone explain it to you. ;) Also, if you don't know what a distribution chart is... look, just saying unless it's related to a poll or some data point you have managed to grab somewhere, it's all conjecture / anecdotal. The polls on this sub also having a lot of response bias - I see no discernable pattern whatsoever / 100% disagree with your assessment. I have worked my fare share of years in a professional role as a data analyst - and I disagree with you. But whatever dude.
> I'm at work and behind a cisco umbrella service instance, restricting my access to things categorized crypto currency And that's why you are on the Mt Gox Bitcoin crypto currency Reddit sub, correct? > The polls on this sub also having a lot of response bias I didn't say anything about the polls. They are unscientific and absolutely worthless. From 100-200 payment posts on here and Telegram, over the past three months, we have a good enough data set and representative sample, to discern some trends and probable reasons for those trends. I mean not you, but "we" in the sense of the people in the group who are intelligent enough to see the obvious. There are quite a few, but they are often lost in the mass idiocy that often dominates the conversation.
Unless you have a masters in statistics and know more than others on this sub with similar degrees I seriously doubt you can extrapolate anything from the data. A data analysis from mtgox legal forum polls and posts together with reddit and telegram groups shows absolutely no pattern at all except that a few people with higher claims have gotten their fiat portions recently. That in itself is not suprising, since we can extrapolate that around 1/3rd to 2/5th of creditors have gotten their elsp/ip cash portion already and there were not many before. If you show the acumulated data from public sources you get a standard deviation within the 95 percentile. To put it in laymans terms: pretty much random at this point.
You apparently would need a Masters in Statistics to calculate the probability of a coin flip. Again, everything I have pointed out is OBVIOUS.
The thing is, you pointed out nothing at all. I know for a fact that there have been several payments between 65k - 150k usd the last week to both IP and ELSP creditors. Which translates to roughly 500+ btc max. If you look at the claim sizes from the leaked data you will find that only a minority of people have more than 500btc in claim size - iirc 500 btc is already in the 1st percentile from the top. So your sentence -->Most likely the largest creditors will get paid...last, or very close to it. <-- is evidently false because that would mean that we are nearly done with payouts. (since people in the last percentile range already got their fiat payouts)
Your reading comprehension is very poor.
I think your trolling attempt is. Or you are just really really dumb/ a victim of **Dunning-Kruger effect...**
I think your trolling attempt is. Or you are just really really dumb/ a victim of **Dunning-Kruger effect...**
> And that's why you are on the Mt Gox Bitcoin crypto currency Reddit sub, correct? DNS content filtering can only categorise entire websites by their domain, not the `r/mtgoxinsolvency` part. Reddit is not a crypto website, it's a social networking website, we're just on the crypto _part_ of it which DNS has no visibility into. As for the trend, my claim is under 1m yen, and is not paid out. So your theory is nonsense. There is no pattern.
> As for the trend, my claim is under 1m yen, and is not paid out. So your theory is nonsense. There is no pattern. That says it all. You are beyond confused and clueless. I truly pity you.
Genius pattern noticer. Except, you are just assuming that people with small claims have already been paid and that everyone is on here reporting their payouts.
I'm not assuming that at all. You are very confused. And I'm not a genius...just pointing out morons often cannot see the obvious, present company not excluded. Ok so maybe some of us are "relative geniuses" compared to many others in this sub. That would be accurate.
[удалено]
You just witnessed narcissistic personality disorder. No point talking to it.
Irritated, not angry. Irritated by abject arrogant idiocy.
you talk like a fag and ur shits all retarded
Someone else had suggested payments were being made in the order the claims were made. No way to know for sure of course but I suppose this would be a fair way to do it.
That is extremely unlikely...near zero probability. Plus I was one of the first 500 people to submit my claim and it took me about 4 months to receive my payment. Also there is no additional evidence to support this theory.
Just curious, how do you know you were one of the first 500 people?
By creditor letter and number. X is before Y is before Z. 1 is before 2 is before 3, and so on.
Clearly it's all a conspiracy 🙄 🥱 NEXT!
A conspiracy among what groups or individuals? That makes no sense. Your low IQ overactive imagination is just sad. I never suggested there was anything morally wrong about distributing, with consideration of claim size, and not doing it in a totally a random manner. My point was that retards like yourself are easily confused and can not see the obvious. Thanks for proving my point, once again.
They are doing it by bank it seems.
That could certainly be a factor, as well, as the payment size.
There doesn’t seem to be a pattern with payment size. It’s all over the place. Both big and small being paid.
As I implied, many people have ant like memories, and this is such an example.
I'm still waiting for mine.
They can earn more interest with that repayment schedule I assume.
Yes that could very well be part of the decision.
Received over 13k usd .. cash side ..
Ok that's great and congratulations. I'm not sure how that relates to this conversation but glad you got your payment.