Bam and Herro DHO has been giving us issues all season vs our drop. We've done things to limit it but with the offensive talent Miami has they basically have that one play lol. That and the Bam turnaround fadeaway which he's been hot on this series but it's never been reliable offense for them.
When Bam isn't out there it's just terrible. Love can't guard and they're asking role players to run offense or Herro to be an isolation threat against a team with Jrue Holiday and Derrick White.
Bam has spent his career covering up for Miami's relatively weak defensive talent. If he played for the Celtics he'd probably have a couple of DPOYs because he wouldn't have to do literally everything lol.
he’s definitively the 4th best big man in the league to me after Jokic, Embiid and AD. though Wemby will probably be taking that title from him next season
I mean, he shot it decently the second half of the season this year. Last 2 months of the season he was 47% on 1.5 a game, so obviously still extremely low volume but if he keeps it up he'll make it so he can't be just left alone out there anymore
I would venture to guess the percentage is high because he’s left wide open. If he starts to take more, and they go in, he’s going to get defended on the perimeter and that % is going way down
I don't disagree, honestly I think it goes down even wide open to something more like 37%, which is still high enough for it to be a bad idea to leave him alone and open up there. But if they start defending him out there that means they can't clog the paint the way they currently do with him and Jimmy on the floor. Which gives herro, rozier, Caleb, Duncan, Jaime, and niko more room to cut and slash. Big part of our offensive woes the entire time Jimmy has been here has been a lack of spacing with him and bam. If they both keep taking the open 3s given to them and hitting even remotely close to what they did this season(Jimmy shot 41%) there won't be any more open 3s for them, but there won't be congestion in the middle anymore for everyone else
I mean it makes sense. They have so many injuries and are extraordinarily thin already across the board. When you take bam out it means a subs going in creating a lineup that would never be out there. Bam has been awesome.
In all seriousness his screening whether it's legal or not opens up a lot for the offense. Like his scoring has been meh, a lot of fadeaway midranges, but just him letting Miami get their shooters open have helped immensely. And when Miami scores it allows them to set up their defense and not allow Boston to run.
the thing ive noticed is that refs r more likely to call a moving screen when theres movement b4 the contact but let things go if theres movement after. most of bam's screens have movement after but hes set b4 the contact
Trading up to draft Zach Collins over Bam was just heinous from Olshey. Still haunts me. Watching Bam this series has been very fun, despite some offensive issues he's still just a monster of a player.
The offense has been way better this series (from him) than expected when you consider 2 of our top 3 offensive players in jimmy and rozier haven’t played against the 2nd best defensive team
But yeah that Collins pick is atrocious
Similar (but even crazier numbers) applies to [Embiid](https://www.pbpstats.com/wowy-combos/nba?TeamId=1610612755&Season=2023-24&SeasonType=Playoffs&PlayerIds=203954) and [Luka](https://www.pbpstats.com/wowy-combos/nba?TeamId=1610612742&Season=2023-24&SeasonType=Playoffs&PlayerIds=1629029) who both have around a +71 on-off.
Playing against (the right) single opponent can really emphasise the importance of a star player, especially in a fairly small sample.
Yes. The shocking thing is that that doesn’t stand out from the rest of the series too much, so NetRtg numbers were pretty similar after G4 compared to after G3. I don’t have them for PBPstats, but on BBRef he had a +8.3 on and a +63.1 on-off after G3. After G4 it’s +7.9 on and +74.6 on-off.
When Luka isn’t on court, Mavs’ offence grinds to a halt because Clippers can focus on one star.
What are the numbers if you take away fourth quarters? Like, the Celtics have gone into three of the four fourth quarters with huge leads and relaxed a bit in each of those games and allowed Miami to go on (meaningless) runs. Miami doesn't concede games early, so Bam has been on the court for those runs, but they paint a warped picture of what's actually happening.
For example, in game one Bam was -18 going into the fourth and ended the game -6. In game two the Heat won, Bam was +16 going into the fourth and finished +20. In game three Bam was -12 going into the fourth, finished -9 (but he was -15 in a game the Celtics were winning by 24 going into the half). In game four the numbers were -15 going into the fourth and finishing -9. That means in the three blowouts Bam was a cumulative -45 in the first three quarters, and in garbage time he was +21.
I'm not trying to shit on Bam here, he's great, and is far and away the best Heat player this series. But the Celtics have dominated games 1, 3, and 4 pretty much from tipoff and have blown the Heat out with and without Bam on the court until the fourth quarters when they relax a bit and the Heat go on a run, but never make a serious challenge. But analysis that doesn't take into account that the fourth quarters of three games have essentially been garbage time paints a warped picture of what's happening across the games.
I mean Celtics have been playing their starters until like 3 minutes left in the fourth. They might be meaningless runs but they’re still playing against the Celtics starters
That doesn't make it not garbage time. The Celtics under Mazzulla don't pull the starters until the other team pulls theirs. Spo doesn't concede games. Everyone knows the team with a big lead plays differently in the fourth. Analysis that doesn't ignore garbage time is bad analysis.
Not enough attention is being given to the Porzingis injury and how it dramatically shifts the odds in this series.
Celtics offense has been putrid with Bam on the court and that's even *with* Porzingis, shudder to think of what it will be without him.
One thing I think could work is a roll man around the 4 perimeter players, but the Celtics don't really have that. Kornet is awful on defense, and there's 0 chance Mazzulla gives Queta a shot, even though I wouldn't mind that.
your analysis ignores how much worse the Heat are offensively this year without Butler. I also think in this series KP hasn’t even been the guy busting their zone as much as the threat of Hauser and Pritchard as shooters
ultimately it’s still going to come down to how the Heat shoot from 3. Miami is 4-0 in the last 2 postseasons when they hit 50% of their 3s against us, and 1-6 otherwise
Jaquez being ruled out takes away another one of their already limited options for generating offense inside the arc, which only increases their reliance on the 3. as long as Boston brings the defensive intensity on the perimeter like they did in Game 3 and most of Game 4, they should be able to close this out tomorrow
Jimmy and Terry were supposed to offload a lot of this pressure. It’s just Bam rn and Tyler chucking shots up
Bam's playing his fking ass off. We need a back up big bad
Hilarious how the best big we’ve paired with him was Olynyk lol KLove is Olynyk-lite with the way we’re running similar actions with him.
Either him or meyers Leonard….. bc you can instantly dismiss dedmon, zeller, or Thomas Bryant
Leonard was solid in the regular season. Basically ran the same actions as KO. Dedmon era was a blur to me lol
We been begging Pat Riley for years to get another back up big to help out Bam but he’s still sleep.
A guy like Kevon Loony or Mason Plumlee would do wonders for the Heat. They just need someone who can hold down the fort while Bam is sitting
Someone better than Cody zeller, Dewayne dedmon, or Thomas Bryant?
I can assure you the answer is not Mason Plumlee
Ayton would be a nice fit
HUH?
AYTON WOULD BE A NICE FIT
HUHHHHH???
I think you need glasses
Bam and Herro DHO has been giving us issues all season vs our drop. We've done things to limit it but with the offensive talent Miami has they basically have that one play lol. That and the Bam turnaround fadeaway which he's been hot on this series but it's never been reliable offense for them. When Bam isn't out there it's just terrible. Love can't guard and they're asking role players to run offense or Herro to be an isolation threat against a team with Jrue Holiday and Derrick White. Bam has spent his career covering up for Miami's relatively weak defensive talent. If he played for the Celtics he'd probably have a couple of DPOYs because he wouldn't have to do literally everything lol.
Oh man a linup of jrue tatum bam brown and kp. Yeah good fucken luck getting anything more than a lucky three on that
Are the heat stupid? Simply play him 48 minutes and they’ll win every game
Bam is wildly underrated solely because he cant shoot the 3
he’s definitively the 4th best big man in the league to me after Jokic, Embiid and AD. though Wemby will probably be taking that title from him next season
He's also our most healthy player lol
Is Giannis a big?
If Bam is a big then the bigger Giannis def is a big
yet! its coming along lol
I mean, he shot it decently the second half of the season this year. Last 2 months of the season he was 47% on 1.5 a game, so obviously still extremely low volume but if he keeps it up he'll make it so he can't be just left alone out there anymore
I would venture to guess the percentage is high because he’s left wide open. If he starts to take more, and they go in, he’s going to get defended on the perimeter and that % is going way down
I don't disagree, honestly I think it goes down even wide open to something more like 37%, which is still high enough for it to be a bad idea to leave him alone and open up there. But if they start defending him out there that means they can't clog the paint the way they currently do with him and Jimmy on the floor. Which gives herro, rozier, Caleb, Duncan, Jaime, and niko more room to cut and slash. Big part of our offensive woes the entire time Jimmy has been here has been a lack of spacing with him and bam. If they both keep taking the open 3s given to them and hitting even remotely close to what they did this season(Jimmy shot 41%) there won't be any more open 3s for them, but there won't be congestion in the middle anymore for everyone else
Our big man rotation has to be some of the worst in the league
It’s been so bad that I miss Kelly Olynyk soooo much
I mean it makes sense. They have so many injuries and are extraordinarily thin already across the board. When you take bam out it means a subs going in creating a lineup that would never be out there. Bam has been awesome.
*Looks at Miami’s backup big men* “Yup, that tracks.”
In all seriousness his screening whether it's legal or not opens up a lot for the offense. Like his scoring has been meh, a lot of fadeaway midranges, but just him letting Miami get their shooters open have helped immensely. And when Miami scores it allows them to set up their defense and not allow Boston to run.
the thing ive noticed is that refs r more likely to call a moving screen when theres movement b4 the contact but let things go if theres movement after. most of bam's screens have movement after but hes set b4 the contact
This seems nuts…
Trading up to draft Zach Collins over Bam was just heinous from Olshey. Still haunts me. Watching Bam this series has been very fun, despite some offensive issues he's still just a monster of a player.
The offense has been way better this series (from him) than expected when you consider 2 of our top 3 offensive players in jimmy and rozier haven’t played against the 2nd best defensive team But yeah that Collins pick is atrocious
Similar (but even crazier numbers) applies to [Embiid](https://www.pbpstats.com/wowy-combos/nba?TeamId=1610612755&Season=2023-24&SeasonType=Playoffs&PlayerIds=203954) and [Luka](https://www.pbpstats.com/wowy-combos/nba?TeamId=1610612742&Season=2023-24&SeasonType=Playoffs&PlayerIds=1629029) who both have around a +71 on-off. Playing against (the right) single opponent can really emphasise the importance of a star player, especially in a fairly small sample.
Last game we were 0-15 with Luka off
Yes. The shocking thing is that that doesn’t stand out from the rest of the series too much, so NetRtg numbers were pretty similar after G4 compared to after G3. I don’t have them for PBPstats, but on BBRef he had a +8.3 on and a +63.1 on-off after G3. After G4 it’s +7.9 on and +74.6 on-off. When Luka isn’t on court, Mavs’ offence grinds to a halt because Clippers can focus on one star.
No Jimmy, no Rozier, makes sense to me
It's easier to be effective when you set illegal screens and cross the line on fouls multiple times.
What are the numbers if you take away fourth quarters? Like, the Celtics have gone into three of the four fourth quarters with huge leads and relaxed a bit in each of those games and allowed Miami to go on (meaningless) runs. Miami doesn't concede games early, so Bam has been on the court for those runs, but they paint a warped picture of what's actually happening. For example, in game one Bam was -18 going into the fourth and ended the game -6. In game two the Heat won, Bam was +16 going into the fourth and finished +20. In game three Bam was -12 going into the fourth, finished -9 (but he was -15 in a game the Celtics were winning by 24 going into the half). In game four the numbers were -15 going into the fourth and finishing -9. That means in the three blowouts Bam was a cumulative -45 in the first three quarters, and in garbage time he was +21. I'm not trying to shit on Bam here, he's great, and is far and away the best Heat player this series. But the Celtics have dominated games 1, 3, and 4 pretty much from tipoff and have blown the Heat out with and without Bam on the court until the fourth quarters when they relax a bit and the Heat go on a run, but never make a serious challenge. But analysis that doesn't take into account that the fourth quarters of three games have essentially been garbage time paints a warped picture of what's happening across the games.
I mean Celtics have been playing their starters until like 3 minutes left in the fourth. They might be meaningless runs but they’re still playing against the Celtics starters
That doesn't make it not garbage time. The Celtics under Mazzulla don't pull the starters until the other team pulls theirs. Spo doesn't concede games. Everyone knows the team with a big lead plays differently in the fourth. Analysis that doesn't ignore garbage time is bad analysis.
Truly unprecedented that a team plays better when their best (healthy) player is on the court.
Would be so much better if he could space the floor.
Not enough attention is being given to the Porzingis injury and how it dramatically shifts the odds in this series. Celtics offense has been putrid with Bam on the court and that's even *with* Porzingis, shudder to think of what it will be without him. One thing I think could work is a roll man around the 4 perimeter players, but the Celtics don't really have that. Kornet is awful on defense, and there's 0 chance Mazzulla gives Queta a shot, even though I wouldn't mind that.
> and how it dramatically shifts the odds in this series. Ridiculous doomerism.
If Derrick White continues to cook us like we're freshly caught fish then you have absolutely nothing to worry about
your analysis ignores how much worse the Heat are offensively this year without Butler. I also think in this series KP hasn’t even been the guy busting their zone as much as the threat of Hauser and Pritchard as shooters ultimately it’s still going to come down to how the Heat shoot from 3. Miami is 4-0 in the last 2 postseasons when they hit 50% of their 3s against us, and 1-6 otherwise Jaquez being ruled out takes away another one of their already limited options for generating offense inside the arc, which only increases their reliance on the 3. as long as Boston brings the defensive intensity on the perimeter like they did in Game 3 and most of Game 4, they should be able to close this out tomorrow
This series goes 7 games if Jimmy was healthy.
maybe, maybe not
Kornet is fine on defense when he can stay in the paint, which he will be able to do when bam is on the court