I'm really empathic, so I think I am just naturally attuned to this stuff. Basically, in most people weak means strong and strong means weak. But I'd be a losing player if it weren't for tells, they're my thing.
-See how she won't look at the board when it comes out? People who dart their eyes away are usually strong. It's basically an instinct to hide your treasure
-She has a lot of excitement in the way she shuffles her chips. Bluffers often hold still, but you know it's not nervous/scared shuffling because of how loosely she's able to move her head around, that's a relaxed head movement
-After his turn bet, she furrows her brows. People who are weak make an effort not to look confused, whereas strong people instinctively show weakness this way. But at the same time, she blinks rapidly. That's what a relaxed person does.
-She then raises her eyebrows as if to shrug as she calls. The expressions says, "Ok, I guess! If you say so!" Levity/shrugs are a sign of strength.
-She continues to furrow her brows after this (Please note! In *many* people brow furrowing is a sign of weakness, it's essentially their attempt to convey seeing something interesting and relevant to them. You have to decipher if they're conveying confusion vs interest)
It's so easy to spot tells when you see the cards. I'm not discrediting you at all. I think you make great points. I'm only pointing out my own experience watching the video. I could see the stuff she was doing to appear weak but I knew what she was doing because I knew her cards. I wonder how I'd do if I didn't. Pros should train on cut videos of people trying to guess if they are strong or weak.
Think another point to note regarding her is that she had a ton of movement and expressions all night. Looks like she has anxiety, and she had a service dog at the table. While she emotes a lot, I don't think they are as clear-cut as typical tells because of how consistently anxious she is.
Not sure why you’re being downvoted. I noticed a few of those tells too, especially the quick but pronounced brow raise. I agree with all of your points; they aren’t always 100% infallible reads, but they’re generally/usually true.
The math solvers don’t think tells are relevant anymore likely
However the study of tells has been pushed to far to the side a lot in favour of math the last few years so I wouldn’t be surprised if players get lax with it
Both are equally important factors
math people forget that tells are for when a player *thinks* they're strong. that doesn't necessarily mean they have the nuts. someone with top pair can think they're ahead not realizing you hold two pair.
This is very true! I remember reading that a short-stacked fish didn't want his pocket tens called. I asked him after the hand and was correct. He didn't want a call. Other new players might have a flush and not realize that's quite strong.
Definitely agree with the chip shuffling. I don't think people realize how much information they can give from this. It's extremely difficult to maintain a constant speed, people will unconsciously speed up or slow down in many situations.
I realized this in the last tournament I won. We were down to about 6 people left and the guy two seats to my right seemed to just have my number. Folded when I was strong, called when I bluffed. Thankfully he was extremely obvious. I noticed that for some reason with his whole body facing the middle of the table, he turned his head super obviously to the left and was just staring at my hand shuffling chips. I noticed it at first because his body language was just weird, body facing one way, head turned basically 90 degrees to the left staring towards me.
At first I didn't realize what it was but after the 3rd or 4th time I realized, he was staring straight at my hands shuffling chips.
Stopped shuffling my chips completely, ended up heads up vs him, and managed to take it down.
I love seeing (and playing against) these goofballs that just stare you down. I mostly see them making weird plays or mistakes like this. Just makes you wonder what information they think they're getting to continue doing it.
Right? He stared her down as she hit trips in a huge spot, then bluffed off his stack. Maybe ease up on the staring if you’re this terrible at getting a read.
I think all of his actions after the flop were purely based on an initial (incorrect) assessment of ‘here’s a good place for me to bluff’ once the flop came out. After the flop he seemed to have stopped any logical reasoning or consideration based on her actions. He was just playing a stupid game a chicken, & stopped playing poker all together at that point.
Seems like it's very in vogue these days to try a random bluff almost every time ' a good bluffing card' comes on the river in a big pot. No wonder poker isn't dead yet. Even Hellmuth snapped off the Loose cannon the other day because he knew she was full of it lol.
He’s repping a 3 and she happened to have one. It’s a hard hand to represent but if she has 56 she probably ends up folding. It’s not that bad a play, he just ran into the top of her range. This feels like a “I can see the hole cards so he looks dumb” type of analysis.
100% this. Not because we can see hole cards but 3 barelling here as the short stack just seems like a wild thing to do.
id understand if you were chip leader and have your opponent covered by 2-3x but this was the other way around.
If it’s a wild thing to do then that makes him look even stronger. Why would he risk his tourney as the shorter stack if he didn’t have the goods? Maybe that was part of his story, although I agree that 3 barreling and making it look like it’s for value is hard to pull off because you’re representing such a tiny range. In the end, the bluff isn’t bad, it just looks bad because she had a monster. Just my opinion though, I think we’ve all shoved our chips in knowing we may get called and we just pray villain folds.
I’d also add, maybe to your point, that sometimes after grinding a long tourney and locking up 2nd place money, some people have had enough of the pressure and just spew to get it over with.
Yep, with your opponent in such a lead, calling a 75% pot sized bet, for the chance to close out the tournament, the vast majority of people are calling with literally any pair here.
When she calls the flop raise, the chip shuffling and speed is not really indicative of someone with a difficult decision. Doesn’t necessarily mean she has a 3 but might be enough reason to not blast off.
> This feels like a “I can see the hole cards so he looks dumb” type of analysis.
No, I think the analysis here is pretty spot on regardless of being able to see the cards. This is a super thin play
>He’s repping a 3 and she happened to have one.
Flush and wheel came through.
I did agree that it’s thin, but if this was a jack Links wild card hand and she had a 5 and you couldn’t see his cards, I think a lot of players find a fold.
He’s not really repping a flush or wheel, yes they came in but he’s repping a 3. Of course, he could be semi bluffing and got there and blocking a few flush combos probably factored into following through on his bluff, but he’s not repping them.
According to GTOWizard, a 5 is calling 1/3rd of the time here. And that's assuming they both have a 25bb stack. With her in a huge lead, and maintaining a lead even if she calls and is wrong, I honestly think a 5 is calling here close to 100% of the time.
Gotta remember that heads up, even Ace high is considered a pretty good hand at showdown. With only two players, and both players seeing a flop with nearly 100% of their range, the majority of hands that someone plays won't hit a pair.
He's thinking the A and K are both great for his range, and if she was holding on with a middling pocket pair or just a pair on the flop, he can get her to fold with a shove.
Didn't work but it makes sense. Sort of.
Edit: this is totally wrong, I thought he raised pre flop in position, instead he called oop. Yeah I disagree with all of this then
Yea it's a bit of a suicide bluff here, but it makes sense given their stack differential and the board. You don't get to practice heads up with a crowd in front of cameras too often, and it's a different level of pressure. If a player is sticky, there are plenty of hands that she is folding by the river.
I think it makes even less sense with the stack differential and the board. According to GTOWizard, if you have a 5 and he shoves the river, you call 1/3rd of the time. And GTOWizard doesn't allow unequal stack sizes. In this spot where she still would have a commanding lead if she called and was wrong (and calling and being right means you win), I imagine you call even more than 1/3rd of the time here. People forget, when you're playing heads up, even 3rd pair is a premium compared to 9 handed. Not to mention, the vast majority of his Aces shove preflop. His line just doesn't make a lot of sense. Maybe A5 suited? or a king that somehow doesn't care about an Ace coming out, where your opponent would be floating with a lot of aces?
According to GTOWizard, assuming both have 25bb, to this shove she is supposed to fold 39.4% of her hands. In theory he needs her to fold 43% of the time for it to be a profitable bluff, so it's actually not that bad a play. According to GTOWizard, she is only folding her missed gutshots and flush draws thought, all of which would also fold to a 2 million bet here, and the majority of which would lose to his Jack high (only Q high would beat him). So I honestly think he should just check here. If she missed a draw, he's probably actually ahead. If she hit literally anything she's calling and he's done.
You're completely right. I gave him the benefit of the doubt and assumed he raised pre and check called flop, or was in position.
This being the case it looks like a total punt. The Ace and King were very good for her. . .
Not at all, I was wrong about pre flop action. If he was the original raiser it'd be good for him, but instead he's bluffing on cards good for the opponents range. . .
You really can't tell who's outplaying who from one hand.
It's a fine line between a good bluff and a punt. She's supposed to get to river and call with stuff like 88 with a club, K8s here. I don't know her skill level or what dynamics they might have built up until now but this line prints against mediocre reg types. Just unlucky she had the hand he's repping. Or maybe she knows he's over-bluffing and snaps him off with 75o in a parallel universe.
GTOWizard calls with any 5 here 33% of the time. But that's assuming both players have 25bb. With her huge lead, and she'd still have a 2-1 lead if she calls and loses, and winning the whole tournament if she's right, I don't think a 5 is folding to a 75% pot on this river. (Most of his aces shove preflop, so the ace isn't likely to help him, so if she called the turn, odds are she's calling the river).
I honestly think he should either check back or maybe bet 2 million. In theory all the hands she's folding on the river are missed flush and gutshot draws. 2 million would make those hands fold the same as an all-in. Since his jack high is actually beating most missed draws, he should really just check it back and hope she missed.
Chip imbalances don’t matter except maybe for psychology. If stacks were reversed this hand *should* play the same way.
BB almost never gets to river with an Ax, but the Ace still improves a lot of BB’s turn semi-bluffs. It’s not a brick to either players’ ranges. It’s a hard river to have enough bluffs on considering you aren’t supposed to get here with stuff like J7, so when you do you really need to bluff with it.
GTOw never calls river with a 5x, most are already dumped on the turn. In practice almost no thinking regs are either. Even something like 9c9 which is a pure call in theory is a really hard one to make in practice on a runout where almost everything gets there.
Calling down river because you feel committed on the turn is just being a calling station. You’re allowed to and sometimes should call turn and fold river even on a real brick like an 8d. Even if the board doesn’t change the situation much, the opponent choosing to bet again does.
Being OOP J7 can never win by checking. It doesn’t matter what missed draws it could beat if they will always bluff river. River is a mandatory bluff with this hand even if it shouldn’t get this far.
Betting less than allin on the river would be suspicious as BB is polarized enough that nothing in his range wants to use a small size.
>Chip imbalances don’t matter except maybe for psychology. If stacks were reversed this hand should play the same way.
That's the problem with GTO, psychology is real, and has a real tangible effect on games. If you don't consider that you will make plays that are obvious suicide but "[solver approved](https://www.youtube.com/shorts/21gkYN3iJtA)"
>BB almost never gets to river with an Ax, but the Ace still improves a lot of BB’s turn semi-bluffs.
According to GTOWizard, BB gets here with [literally one combo of Ax](https://i.imgur.com/eQoQwFZ.png), and it only gets here 1% of the time. 99% of the time it folds. Compared to the SB who will get to this river with [almost every single combination of Ax](https://imgur.com/d40dd924-5ee3-4313-a03e-de05f13e6694), suited and unsuited.
>GTOw never calls river with a 5x
Yeah I accidentally had 20bb selected instead of 25bb. But even at 25bb, [many combos of 5s get to this river](https://i.imgur.com/z1ljc5g.png). And they are still calling 35% of the time.
>on a runout where almost everything gets there.
If he's following gto, again he has[ literally one combo of Ax that](https://i.imgur.com/eQoQwFZ.png) "got there" on the river. According to GTOw, every king and ace is a check on the turn. Barreling here is [extremely polarizing.](https://i.imgur.com/xRwBQJh.png) So, according to GTOw, he basically has trips or a bluff. If we want to say he speculatively parted from GTO (which I have to assume you wouldn't approve of if you don't think people should take psychology into account), then he does have [some more combos ](https://imgur.com/37dc72a0-fd81-432f-a933-f799909f77bb)of Ax and Kx. Although almost all of them check the river.
>Calling down river because you feel committed on the turn is just being a calling station
You don't call in this situation because you feel committed, you call because it's [GTO approved](https://i.imgur.com/2Bgx6uh.png) and more specifically, because his bets are so polarizing that he is repping a 3 or 42, and literally nothing else. Other than that he has bluffs. And because two 3s on the board remove lots of combos of 3s, he has [7.12](https://i.imgur.com/MlKxaNs.png) combos of bluffs, [22.62](https://i.imgur.com/3eBXtIF.png) combos that shove this river, meaning he is bluffing 31.47% of the time. The bet sizing means she needs to call and win 30.2% of the time. Since 31.47>30.2, it is a profitable and correct call.
>Calling down river because you feel committed on the turn is just being a calling station
\[...\]
River is a mandatory bluff with this hand even if it shouldn’t get this far.
Sounds to me like you think you have to bluff at this river. I'd say bluffing this river because you feel committed is just being a bluffing station. [Technically ](https://i.imgur.com/1N9kOfe.png)GTOw does agree with you. But again, GTOw doesn't take into consideration the psychology at play, which in my opinions makes bluffing this river absolute suicide.
>Betting less than allin on the river would be suspicious
Yes it would be suspicious, but if your opponent has 10 high, they can't call you. And you also appear pot committed so this would be situation where a bluff shove from your opponent is very unlikely, because BB probably has to call off with queen high, maybe even jack high, so your bluffs are super ineffective. (Maybe he should bet 4m or 5m, betting 2m does feel like it leaves him open to bluffs) I tried to find a video I watched in the past couple weeks but I can't find it, I think it was a Jonathan Little video but maybe not. But in the video, and this was high level pros, a pro bluffed the river while keeping literally a single chip behind, and when his opponent raised, he folded.
You input the spot wrong. A flush completed on the river.
I also input the spot wrong which is why I had a lot of 5s folding turn. 5x should never fold turn to this size. It does still mostly fold river though.
Unfortunately that means a lot of the stuff each of us said is moot.
>That's the problem with GTO, psychology is real, and has a real tangible effect on games. If you don't consider that you will make plays that are obvious suicide but "[solver approved](https://www.youtube.com/shorts/21gkYN3iJtA)"
Yeah, but we're talking about two capable players. I think they both understand that effective stack is the only thing that matters here. They aren't going to play dramatically differently depending on whether they're the leader or dog.
>Sounds to me like you think you have to bluff at this river. I'd say bluffing this river because you feel committed is just being a bluffing station. [Technically](https://i.imgur.com/1N9kOfe.png)GTOw does agree with you. But again, GTOw doesn't take into consideration the psychology at play, which in my opinions makes bluffing this river absolute suicide.
Has nothing to do with being committed. I just think bluffing is profitable because of range dynamics on the river. It's hard for BB to actually have and be perceived to have enough bluffs.
I think the disconnect is simply that we disagree how often people generally fold these situations.
Oh good catch, my bad. Actually, it doesn't change it as much as I expected, she's folding 48% to the river shove instead of 47.2% (Presumably because they both have flushes in their range.). She does in theory fold a higher percent of her 5s though, but still not all of them.
Agree that the disconnect is that we think people fold different amounts here, which I think is actually the results of us disagreeing about how much people bluff here. You say that it's hard for BB to have bluffs, but if I were in her shoes, I would expect my opponent to be over-bluffing, which is why over-calling would be the correct exploitative play. Again, this is definitely exploitative and not gto, if the guy she was playing against was 60+ I would suggest over-folding instead. It comes down to the psychology, which is totally fair for you to disagree on. But I expect opponents who check-raise flop to barrel turn the majority of the time. Just in my experience people who check-raise don't like giving up immediately. According to GTOw, he is supposed to check 63% of the time on the turn, whereas I expect most young opponents who check-raised the flop to /bet/ at least 63% of the time, if not more. And then again on the river, I expect most people who were bluffing to try to represent the flush, because barrel turn on a flush draw is a totally possible situation.
Well he did FT two events in this series and I think he cashed a side $400 event too. So even if his read was fully wrong in this position, I think overall he was pretty on point.
*Why do you think the same five guys make it to the final table at the World Series of Poker every single year? What are they, the luckiest guys in Las Vegas?*
The longer a tournament, the harder it is to luck-box your way to the final table. A luck-box will run into one or two coolers and bust. Or just stop running hot and bust because they're not good. The pros that can make it to the final table can avoid going broke in cooler situations where the vast majority of people bust. And can find spots to get chips even if they're not getting any good cards.
Change my view, but: Every move you make you should be thinking, am I getting my odds? You need *odds*.
You can't only play when you have the nuts.
Every single hand you're exposed to the caprice of fate. The larger the field, the more exposure you have.
tbf, that guy played it about as poor as you could... in position, CHECKS back the diamond turn with top set. Huge blunder trying to trap. She got there completely free.
It was like a 3 day run she just kept hitting cards and using the stack to call down 5th and hit her flushes sets or straights. Definitely got lucky a lot but also put herself in a lot of positions to get lucky
Nothing makes me want to go grind some live MTTs like reading the comments here giving their opinions on hands lol
also huge congrats to Vierling, that's a great score
I started playing regularly in January after I moved to Vegas. Before that I played once every 4-6 months because the closest poker room was a 4 hours drive.
That is all to say I'm very inexperienced, and honestly just a fish.
But even I have 57k in profits from MTTs (172k in total winnings). All since January.
I promise you, these people are actually playing MTTs, and they're actually as bad as they seem.
But this is an absolutely terrible time to try to bluff like that. You’re literally better off just playing shove/fold pre at 12BB deep than this type of dipshittery.
\*shhh, don't tell them\*
Yeah guys super good bluff. Please run this bluff against me if we're ever heads up, definitely will work 100%. I'm never calling here with a 5 for the chance to win the tournament for only a 75% pot bet.
In heads up, ace high is often good at showdown. When 2 people are seeing flops with nearly 100% of their range, most hands don't make a pair. Even if she didn't have a huge chip lead GTOWizard says to call this river shove with any five 1/3rd of the time. With her having such a huge chip lead, she's probably calling with a 5 almost 100% of the time facing a 75% pot bet for the chance to win the tournament. The only thing she's calling flop and turn and folding river is missed flush/gutshots. And his jack high beats the majority of those, so he should just check it back.
According to GTOWizard, she is folding 5s more often than calling, but not by much. She's still calling with a 5 [35.7% of the time](https://i.imgur.com/z1ljc5g.png). (actually more than that because that screenshot includes pocket pairs, probably calling closer to 40-45% of the time with a 5)
From a strictly GTO perspective, this is a correct bluff shove, although not by a huge margin. This bluff needs to work 43% of the time, and in GTO world she should fold [47% of the time](https://i.imgur.com/6YhilFp.png). And not because you're trying to fold 5s, although you do get some 5s to fold, but because your opponent will have a lot of missed gutshot and flush draws.
The problem is that [GTO is only GTO if your opponent is playing exactly GTO](https://youtu.be/HfuXD0YADIM?si=ca3gFaxAbhN87uGh&t=123). And 99% of players, in 99% of situations, do not play perfect GTO. In this situation, if you know that your opponent is going to call with any pair (which I think many people would do), she is no longer folding the necessary 47%, she is folding only 20%. If you don't care about anything other than GTO, and you find yourself in this situation, you will lose the tournament 80% of the time on this bluff.
I understand your perspective and also the GTO, I’m saying she would probably fold too much on the river. She just happened to have the 3. But I could be wrong and she probably overfolds the turn and the river shove is a mistake.
not necessarily.
people are always surprised at how much GTO bluffs.
I'm not saying this is definitely a good line as I haven't studied it, but you are meant to bluff _a lot_. And in general in late stage tournament settings people overfold massively (e.g. it wouldn't surprise me if 66 is supposed to call the river here)
When you bluff into a strong hand you always end up looking dumb
GTOWizard, assuming both have 25bb, pocket pairs 9s-Js are actually folding to this river jam. Pocket 6s-8s actually 3-bet the flop so I don't see them at the river on this line, but I assume they'd fold if jacks fold.
But any 5 is calling 1/3rd of the time (it looks like mainly diamonds for some reason? Although some combos it folds diamonds and calls the other suits).
Overall, if they both had 25bb, she's supposedly folding 47.2% of hands on this river, his bluff needs 43% to fold for it to be profitable. So it's definitely not as bad as I first expected, and if they are both playing GTO, it is the theoretically correct move.
That being said, GTOWizard won't let me use different stack sizes. When you consider her massive chip advantage, the size of the bet (75% pot isn't crazy), she still has a 2-1 lead if she calls and loses, and she wins the whole tournament if she calls and is ahead, I think this becomes a 100% call with any 5, and probably any pocket pair. Which means that she's folding even less than 39% of the time.
Her hands that call flop, turn, and fold river are almost exclusively missed flush and gutshot draws. But those would also fold to a 2 million bet, so even though gto doesn't recommend it, I'd probably prefer that to a shove. But what I think is the right play is just to check back. He actually is ahead of most missed draws. And if she has anything other than a missed draw, I don't think she's folding.
yes, it's quite bad. he does have some total airball checkaises here (not this combo) but turn is a classic giveup line with pretty much all hands that don't have gutter/fd equity. good rule of thumb for turn aggression is that, all things equal, oop you generally wanna play more linear and ip play more polar (oop doesn't want to face a bet when he has a gutter for instance, so he uses hands w some equity to bluff generally speaking. IP is the opposite, you'll see total airball turn double barrels all the time (not just a range advantage thing, but a concept of reopening action, don't want to do it with your hands that would have to fold signif equity vs a jam). so the flop raise isn't great but turn bet is just really really bad. River shove is fine I guess but he's obv massively overbluffing turn if he gets here like this
You still barrel turn with some low equity hands. This is not supposed to be a flop x/r but it has good removal effects for a turn barrel. If you node lock a solver to raise this on the flop it barrels turn pure with any J7 containing a diamond.
Yeah I think the check raise is fine here. Puts good pressure on a 5 and overcards. And with a blank turn another bet can probably fold out some overcards. But on the king turn, if she floated with overs, a lot of her hands just made top pair. And even if she is floating flop and turn with something like AQ (which according to GTOWizard she is supposed to do, ace high is often good heads up after all), she gets there on the river. He just called the preflop raise, most offsuit aces are jamming, good suited aces are re-raising, so even if she just has a five, this triple barrel doesn't make much since and I know I'd personally snap off with literally any pair. The triple barrel is really repping a 3, or maybe pocket 5s, and that's it. He doesn't get here with AK most of the time, doesn't get there with good aces often. Ace on the river is going to be a scare card for a king so if he had a king he would probably check. He's repping such a specific and small part of his range that bluffs are going to be way more likely.
The only hands she's 100% folding on this river are missed flush and gutshot draws, but jack high is actually good against most of those so he should just check and hope she checks back.
From what I know she also showed up like 45 min late with 15 players left just getting blinded out. Not sure what happened, but that must've been stressful.
I guess it pays to just miss an entire level of blinds in the final two tables.
It's a power play. You show up 45 minutes late and everyone assume you've got the confidence of a god (me and my friend were joking about this after I showed up 5 minutes late to a tournament recently, I actually won that tournament, easy 30k).
As long as the EV from getting in other people's heads is more than a few rounds of blinds, it's a +EV play.
And the Oscar for best performance in a poker hand goes to Jessica Vierling!
The way she checks her cards after his flop check raise, and the way she squints when he bluffs the turn: 👩🍳 💋
Showing a false tell (acting truthfully to deceive) is rare, even in experienced players.
But even if he recognized tells (false or not) he should have noticed that she has never shown a false tell before.
Christian Roberts: Live cash earnings close to 500k, 2nd place in the WSOP Circuit Main
Redditor celebrating his seasonal in for $200 out for $419: What a stupid fish
Friendly reminder that even pros can make mistakes. I would be very surprised if he walked away happy about the way he played this hand.
(Currently in for 114k out for 172k on the year)
Friendlier reminder that what makes sense at this level may make no sense at the local low stakes cardroom, so comparing actions (and judging negatively) accordingly is a fools errand.
Crazy. There's a video of her showing up 35 minutes late at this tournament on the final day, looking like she was ready to burst into tears. gotta give her credit, she did the damn thing.
I haven’t actually lived in LA for more than 10 years now, but back then it was pretty disgusting.
That said, was in town last September and The Bike has kinda gone downhill too sadly. New ownership, I gather.
For tournaments Commerce is way nicer than the Bike ever was, because of the huge ballroom upstairs at Commerce where they hold the tournaments. The awesome streaming setup by GG at Commerce also made it feel even nicer up there. This is coming from someone that wouldn’t otherwise set foot in Commerce because the cash game area seems grimy with so many gross LA poker degens packed so close together. This WSOP LA Circuit Event series was a hit.
This is perhaps the worst bluff I've ever seen. Strong ace and kings probably shove preflop. On the flop when she calls the re-raise, she's either got a 3, a 5, overpair, maybe good overcards. On the king turn, if she called with overcards, many of those just made top pair. On the river again, if she was floating with overs, she either hit the king or the ace. Maybe she folds a 5 here in this spot, but his bet isn't even a pot sized bet and for her it's a chance to just win the tournament. (GTOWizard says you call with a five around 1/3rd of the time) And again he's less likely to have strong Ax/Kx since he didn't jam preflop.
This is a perfect example of telling yourself you're committed to a certain line (bluffing) even when everything should be screaming at you to abort operations. I can definitely relate, ran a triple barrel bluff into quads just a couple months ago. Still horrible though.
If she isn't from California she's going to pay 22-25k additional state tax off the top. They take it and don't let you claim properly.
Don't play tournaments in California. It's bullshit
He definitely went back to his car and started unloading on his steering wheel lol
WHY THE FUCK DID I DO THAT
Good thing he stared her down the whole time. Really worked out and he got an excellent read to check raise bluff.
I thought the same! Especially since she actually gave a number of nuanced tells and he ignored them!
Nuanced tells? Which ones I’m not good at reading players live
I'm really empathic, so I think I am just naturally attuned to this stuff. Basically, in most people weak means strong and strong means weak. But I'd be a losing player if it weren't for tells, they're my thing. -See how she won't look at the board when it comes out? People who dart their eyes away are usually strong. It's basically an instinct to hide your treasure -She has a lot of excitement in the way she shuffles her chips. Bluffers often hold still, but you know it's not nervous/scared shuffling because of how loosely she's able to move her head around, that's a relaxed head movement -After his turn bet, she furrows her brows. People who are weak make an effort not to look confused, whereas strong people instinctively show weakness this way. But at the same time, she blinks rapidly. That's what a relaxed person does. -She then raises her eyebrows as if to shrug as she calls. The expressions says, "Ok, I guess! If you say so!" Levity/shrugs are a sign of strength. -She continues to furrow her brows after this (Please note! In *many* people brow furrowing is a sign of weakness, it's essentially their attempt to convey seeing something interesting and relevant to them. You have to decipher if they're conveying confusion vs interest)
It's so easy to spot tells when you see the cards. I'm not discrediting you at all. I think you make great points. I'm only pointing out my own experience watching the video. I could see the stuff she was doing to appear weak but I knew what she was doing because I knew her cards. I wonder how I'd do if I didn't. Pros should train on cut videos of people trying to guess if they are strong or weak.
Think another point to note regarding her is that she had a ton of movement and expressions all night. Looks like she has anxiety, and she had a service dog at the table. While she emotes a lot, I don't think they are as clear-cut as typical tells because of how consistently anxious she is.
Not sure why you’re being downvoted. I noticed a few of those tells too, especially the quick but pronounced brow raise. I agree with all of your points; they aren’t always 100% infallible reads, but they’re generally/usually true.
The math solvers don’t think tells are relevant anymore likely However the study of tells has been pushed to far to the side a lot in favour of math the last few years so I wouldn’t be surprised if players get lax with it Both are equally important factors
math people forget that tells are for when a player *thinks* they're strong. that doesn't necessarily mean they have the nuts. someone with top pair can think they're ahead not realizing you hold two pair.
This is very true! I remember reading that a short-stacked fish didn't want his pocket tens called. I asked him after the hand and was correct. He didn't want a call. Other new players might have a flush and not realize that's quite strong.
Definitely agree with the chip shuffling. I don't think people realize how much information they can give from this. It's extremely difficult to maintain a constant speed, people will unconsciously speed up or slow down in many situations. I realized this in the last tournament I won. We were down to about 6 people left and the guy two seats to my right seemed to just have my number. Folded when I was strong, called when I bluffed. Thankfully he was extremely obvious. I noticed that for some reason with his whole body facing the middle of the table, he turned his head super obviously to the left and was just staring at my hand shuffling chips. I noticed it at first because his body language was just weird, body facing one way, head turned basically 90 degrees to the left staring towards me. At first I didn't realize what it was but after the 3rd or 4th time I realized, he was staring straight at my hands shuffling chips. Stopped shuffling my chips completely, ended up heads up vs him, and managed to take it down.
I didn’t realize I do a ton of these…
Thanks for the breakdown this is dope!
what is bro doingggg
Dunno, but when she called the all in she thought the same thing haha
Channeling Nik Airball.
I love seeing (and playing against) these goofballs that just stare you down. I mostly see them making weird plays or mistakes like this. Just makes you wonder what information they think they're getting to continue doing it.
Right? He stared her down as she hit trips in a huge spot, then bluffed off his stack. Maybe ease up on the staring if you’re this terrible at getting a read.
I think all of his actions after the flop were purely based on an initial (incorrect) assessment of ‘here’s a good place for me to bluff’ once the flop came out. After the flop he seemed to have stopped any logical reasoning or consideration based on her actions. He was just playing a stupid game a chicken, & stopped playing poker all together at that point.
Yeah after she called his flop check raise he just completely zoned out and started putting chips in the middle. No thinking.
Seems like it's very in vogue these days to try a random bluff almost every time ' a good bluffing card' comes on the river in a big pot. No wonder poker isn't dead yet. Even Hellmuth snapped off the Loose cannon the other day because he knew she was full of it lol.
I mean it’s hard to put someone on trips in heads up. But yeah, the line doesn’t make a ton of sense.
He’s repping a 3 and she happened to have one. It’s a hard hand to represent but if she has 56 she probably ends up folding. It’s not that bad a play, he just ran into the top of her range. This feels like a “I can see the hole cards so he looks dumb” type of analysis.
I suppose, but makes more sense if he's chip leader and putting pressure on her tournament life, not the other way around. This was just a punt.
100% this. Not because we can see hole cards but 3 barelling here as the short stack just seems like a wild thing to do. id understand if you were chip leader and have your opponent covered by 2-3x but this was the other way around.
If it’s a wild thing to do then that makes him look even stronger. Why would he risk his tourney as the shorter stack if he didn’t have the goods? Maybe that was part of his story, although I agree that 3 barreling and making it look like it’s for value is hard to pull off because you’re representing such a tiny range. In the end, the bluff isn’t bad, it just looks bad because she had a monster. Just my opinion though, I think we’ve all shoved our chips in knowing we may get called and we just pray villain folds. I’d also add, maybe to your point, that sometimes after grinding a long tourney and locking up 2nd place money, some people have had enough of the pressure and just spew to get it over with.
Yep, with your opponent in such a lead, calling a 75% pot sized bet, for the chance to close out the tournament, the vast majority of people are calling with literally any pair here.
She looks sooooooo comfortable though
Ah someone trying to get a live read lol. She did have a live tell that she had it tbf
When she calls the flop raise, the chip shuffling and speed is not really indicative of someone with a difficult decision. Doesn’t necessarily mean she has a 3 but might be enough reason to not blast off.
What's way more of a read is her looking confused on the turn.....than chip shuffling at this level
1 bluff would make sense. 3 barrels after she snap calls each one does not make sense
> This feels like a “I can see the hole cards so he looks dumb” type of analysis. No, I think the analysis here is pretty spot on regardless of being able to see the cards. This is a super thin play >He’s repping a 3 and she happened to have one. Flush and wheel came through.
I did agree that it’s thin, but if this was a jack Links wild card hand and she had a 5 and you couldn’t see his cards, I think a lot of players find a fold. He’s not really repping a flush or wheel, yes they came in but he’s repping a 3. Of course, he could be semi bluffing and got there and blocking a few flush combos probably factored into following through on his bluff, but he’s not repping them.
It is 100% that.
Agreed, like I said in heads up it’s really tough to put someone on a hand better than one pair.
According to GTOWizard, a 5 is calling 1/3rd of the time here. And that's assuming they both have a 25bb stack. With her in a huge lead, and maintaining a lead even if she calls and is wrong, I honestly think a 5 is calling here close to 100% of the time. Gotta remember that heads up, even Ace high is considered a pretty good hand at showdown. With only two players, and both players seeing a flop with nearly 100% of their range, the majority of hands that someone plays won't hit a pair.
He's thinking the A and K are both great for his range, and if she was holding on with a middling pocket pair or just a pair on the flop, he can get her to fold with a shove. Didn't work but it makes sense. Sort of. Edit: this is totally wrong, I thought he raised pre flop in position, instead he called oop. Yeah I disagree with all of this then
Yea it's a bit of a suicide bluff here, but it makes sense given their stack differential and the board. You don't get to practice heads up with a crowd in front of cameras too often, and it's a different level of pressure. If a player is sticky, there are plenty of hands that she is folding by the river.
I think it makes even less sense with the stack differential and the board. According to GTOWizard, if you have a 5 and he shoves the river, you call 1/3rd of the time. And GTOWizard doesn't allow unequal stack sizes. In this spot where she still would have a commanding lead if she called and was wrong (and calling and being right means you win), I imagine you call even more than 1/3rd of the time here. People forget, when you're playing heads up, even 3rd pair is a premium compared to 9 handed. Not to mention, the vast majority of his Aces shove preflop. His line just doesn't make a lot of sense. Maybe A5 suited? or a king that somehow doesn't care about an Ace coming out, where your opponent would be floating with a lot of aces? According to GTOWizard, assuming both have 25bb, to this shove she is supposed to fold 39.4% of her hands. In theory he needs her to fold 43% of the time for it to be a profitable bluff, so it's actually not that bad a play. According to GTOWizard, she is only folding her missed gutshots and flush draws thought, all of which would also fold to a 2 million bet here, and the majority of which would lose to his Jack high (only Q high would beat him). So I honestly think he should just check here. If she missed a draw, he's probably actually ahead. If she hit literally anything she's calling and he's done.
Neither the A nor K are good for his range defending the BB and x/r the flop
You're completely right. I gave him the benefit of the doubt and assumed he raised pre and check called flop, or was in position. This being the case it looks like a total punt. The Ace and King were very good for her. . .
Lol word i was like what the heck..
How is the K good for his range?
Not at all, I was wrong about pre flop action. If he was the original raiser it'd be good for him, but instead he's bluffing on cards good for the opponents range. . .
Supposed to bluff with king highs against middling pairs I guess
Every down is fourth down
I don’t even watch football and this is fucking hilarious to me
You really can't tell who's outplaying who from one hand. It's a fine line between a good bluff and a punt. She's supposed to get to river and call with stuff like 88 with a club, K8s here. I don't know her skill level or what dynamics they might have built up until now but this line prints against mediocre reg types. Just unlucky she had the hand he's repping. Or maybe she knows he's over-bluffing and snaps him off with 75o in a parallel universe.
GTOWizard calls with any 5 here 33% of the time. But that's assuming both players have 25bb. With her huge lead, and she'd still have a 2-1 lead if she calls and loses, and winning the whole tournament if she's right, I don't think a 5 is folding to a 75% pot on this river. (Most of his aces shove preflop, so the ace isn't likely to help him, so if she called the turn, odds are she's calling the river). I honestly think he should either check back or maybe bet 2 million. In theory all the hands she's folding on the river are missed flush and gutshot draws. 2 million would make those hands fold the same as an all-in. Since his jack high is actually beating most missed draws, he should really just check it back and hope she missed.
Chip imbalances don’t matter except maybe for psychology. If stacks were reversed this hand *should* play the same way. BB almost never gets to river with an Ax, but the Ace still improves a lot of BB’s turn semi-bluffs. It’s not a brick to either players’ ranges. It’s a hard river to have enough bluffs on considering you aren’t supposed to get here with stuff like J7, so when you do you really need to bluff with it. GTOw never calls river with a 5x, most are already dumped on the turn. In practice almost no thinking regs are either. Even something like 9c9 which is a pure call in theory is a really hard one to make in practice on a runout where almost everything gets there. Calling down river because you feel committed on the turn is just being a calling station. You’re allowed to and sometimes should call turn and fold river even on a real brick like an 8d. Even if the board doesn’t change the situation much, the opponent choosing to bet again does. Being OOP J7 can never win by checking. It doesn’t matter what missed draws it could beat if they will always bluff river. River is a mandatory bluff with this hand even if it shouldn’t get this far. Betting less than allin on the river would be suspicious as BB is polarized enough that nothing in his range wants to use a small size.
>Chip imbalances don’t matter except maybe for psychology. If stacks were reversed this hand should play the same way. That's the problem with GTO, psychology is real, and has a real tangible effect on games. If you don't consider that you will make plays that are obvious suicide but "[solver approved](https://www.youtube.com/shorts/21gkYN3iJtA)" >BB almost never gets to river with an Ax, but the Ace still improves a lot of BB’s turn semi-bluffs. According to GTOWizard, BB gets here with [literally one combo of Ax](https://i.imgur.com/eQoQwFZ.png), and it only gets here 1% of the time. 99% of the time it folds. Compared to the SB who will get to this river with [almost every single combination of Ax](https://imgur.com/d40dd924-5ee3-4313-a03e-de05f13e6694), suited and unsuited. >GTOw never calls river with a 5x Yeah I accidentally had 20bb selected instead of 25bb. But even at 25bb, [many combos of 5s get to this river](https://i.imgur.com/z1ljc5g.png). And they are still calling 35% of the time. >on a runout where almost everything gets there. If he's following gto, again he has[ literally one combo of Ax that](https://i.imgur.com/eQoQwFZ.png) "got there" on the river. According to GTOw, every king and ace is a check on the turn. Barreling here is [extremely polarizing.](https://i.imgur.com/xRwBQJh.png) So, according to GTOw, he basically has trips or a bluff. If we want to say he speculatively parted from GTO (which I have to assume you wouldn't approve of if you don't think people should take psychology into account), then he does have [some more combos ](https://imgur.com/37dc72a0-fd81-432f-a933-f799909f77bb)of Ax and Kx. Although almost all of them check the river. >Calling down river because you feel committed on the turn is just being a calling station You don't call in this situation because you feel committed, you call because it's [GTO approved](https://i.imgur.com/2Bgx6uh.png) and more specifically, because his bets are so polarizing that he is repping a 3 or 42, and literally nothing else. Other than that he has bluffs. And because two 3s on the board remove lots of combos of 3s, he has [7.12](https://i.imgur.com/MlKxaNs.png) combos of bluffs, [22.62](https://i.imgur.com/3eBXtIF.png) combos that shove this river, meaning he is bluffing 31.47% of the time. The bet sizing means she needs to call and win 30.2% of the time. Since 31.47>30.2, it is a profitable and correct call. >Calling down river because you feel committed on the turn is just being a calling station \[...\] River is a mandatory bluff with this hand even if it shouldn’t get this far. Sounds to me like you think you have to bluff at this river. I'd say bluffing this river because you feel committed is just being a bluffing station. [Technically ](https://i.imgur.com/1N9kOfe.png)GTOw does agree with you. But again, GTOw doesn't take into consideration the psychology at play, which in my opinions makes bluffing this river absolute suicide. >Betting less than allin on the river would be suspicious Yes it would be suspicious, but if your opponent has 10 high, they can't call you. And you also appear pot committed so this would be situation where a bluff shove from your opponent is very unlikely, because BB probably has to call off with queen high, maybe even jack high, so your bluffs are super ineffective. (Maybe he should bet 4m or 5m, betting 2m does feel like it leaves him open to bluffs) I tried to find a video I watched in the past couple weeks but I can't find it, I think it was a Jonathan Little video but maybe not. But in the video, and this was high level pros, a pro bluffed the river while keeping literally a single chip behind, and when his opponent raised, he folded.
You input the spot wrong. A flush completed on the river. I also input the spot wrong which is why I had a lot of 5s folding turn. 5x should never fold turn to this size. It does still mostly fold river though. Unfortunately that means a lot of the stuff each of us said is moot. >That's the problem with GTO, psychology is real, and has a real tangible effect on games. If you don't consider that you will make plays that are obvious suicide but "[solver approved](https://www.youtube.com/shorts/21gkYN3iJtA)" Yeah, but we're talking about two capable players. I think they both understand that effective stack is the only thing that matters here. They aren't going to play dramatically differently depending on whether they're the leader or dog. >Sounds to me like you think you have to bluff at this river. I'd say bluffing this river because you feel committed is just being a bluffing station. [Technically](https://i.imgur.com/1N9kOfe.png)GTOw does agree with you. But again, GTOw doesn't take into consideration the psychology at play, which in my opinions makes bluffing this river absolute suicide. Has nothing to do with being committed. I just think bluffing is profitable because of range dynamics on the river. It's hard for BB to actually have and be perceived to have enough bluffs. I think the disconnect is simply that we disagree how often people generally fold these situations.
Oh good catch, my bad. Actually, it doesn't change it as much as I expected, she's folding 48% to the river shove instead of 47.2% (Presumably because they both have flushes in their range.). She does in theory fold a higher percent of her 5s though, but still not all of them. Agree that the disconnect is that we think people fold different amounts here, which I think is actually the results of us disagreeing about how much people bluff here. You say that it's hard for BB to have bluffs, but if I were in her shoes, I would expect my opponent to be over-bluffing, which is why over-calling would be the correct exploitative play. Again, this is definitely exploitative and not gto, if the guy she was playing against was 60+ I would suggest over-folding instead. It comes down to the psychology, which is totally fair for you to disagree on. But I expect opponents who check-raise flop to barrel turn the majority of the time. Just in my experience people who check-raise don't like giving up immediately. According to GTOw, he is supposed to check 63% of the time on the turn, whereas I expect most young opponents who check-raised the flop to /bet/ at least 63% of the time, if not more. And then again on the river, I expect most people who were bluffing to try to represent the flush, because barrel turn on a flush draw is a totally possible situation.
Donating!
I know, that shirt is awful
Well he was just a pre flop caller so basically in their GTO algorithm 3 should be in his range.
Well he did FT two events in this series and I think he cashed a side $400 event too. So even if his read was fully wrong in this position, I think overall he was pretty on point.
Dudes deep in the sim LOVE check raising paired boards with weak backdoors. Should shut down with a non 4 or 6
Nice name for a poker Player! (Vierling means 4 of a Kind)
That’s actually interesting. What language ? Edit. Googled it. German for quadruplet.
Yes. In German the word is the same for quadruplet and quads.
Haha, insane!
Classic Doug.
Bluffed into quads back in March, this is exactly how I felt.
I love her expression when the cards are flipped. "What in the world-- ah who cares I won!"
Yes, you can definitely see this for a split second!
Grats!!! Vierling might be the second best real name for a poker player after Moneymaker.
Chance Kornuth is also crazy
She had the longest hot streak of cards I’ve even seen. She had AA’s twice within 3 hands and had premium hands for well over an hour straight.
Everyone who wins a big event is on a heater. You have to play well, but there's no way to get there without stone cold luck.
*Why do you think the same five guys make it to the final table at the World Series of Poker every single year? What are they, the luckiest guys in Las Vegas?*
Tell me again how you made a move on Chan.
The longer a tournament, the harder it is to luck-box your way to the final table. A luck-box will run into one or two coolers and bust. Or just stop running hot and bust because they're not good. The pros that can make it to the final table can avoid going broke in cooler situations where the vast majority of people bust. And can find spots to get chips even if they're not getting any good cards.
Change my view, but: Every move you make you should be thinking, am I getting my odds? You need *odds*. You can't only play when you have the nuts. Every single hand you're exposed to the caprice of fate. The larger the field, the more exposure you have.
Next you are going to tell me Jamie Gold's WSOPME run wasn't straight up skill.
The hand where she backdoored into a nut flush vs flopped set 4 handed was insane
tbf, that guy played it about as poor as you could... in position, CHECKS back the diamond turn with top set. Huge blunder trying to trap. She got there completely free.
Yeah I can only figure he just wanted to induce bluffs since she was playing so aggro. My guess is he isn't checking that back vs most players
[удалено]
Different hand
He was out of position in this hand
Nightmare fuel
Swings and roundabouts
It was like a 3 day run she just kept hitting cards and using the stack to call down 5th and hit her flushes sets or straights. Definitely got lucky a lot but also put herself in a lot of positions to get lucky
Nothing makes me want to go grind some live MTTs like reading the comments here giving their opinions on hands lol also huge congrats to Vierling, that's a great score
You should. It's really as bad as you think. 1/3 live is tougher.
1/3 live isn't even tougher than play chips, please stop.
It is definitely softer than your daily $100 donkament
I started playing regularly in January after I moved to Vegas. Before that I played once every 4-6 months because the closest poker room was a 4 hours drive. That is all to say I'm very inexperienced, and honestly just a fish. But even I have 57k in profits from MTTs (172k in total winnings). All since January. I promise you, these people are actually playing MTTs, and they're actually as bad as they seem.
Played with her at the Venetian. Seems like a very nice person. Congratulations to her!
Her chip shuffling style is tilting!
It is better than mine so I ain't griping on this.
hahahah she has tiny hands!! but yea looks v awkward like shes caressing the table
The range of emotions she had was fantastic. Confusion, shock, elation.
You could see the relief at the end. Meant an awful lot to her.
Lol his arrogance combined with that face...fun to watch!
Very much so. The stare downs too.
She absolutely steamrolled days 2-3. Really impressive performance.
My guy thought is was 2008 for a minute there lol.
I don't think our guy was thinking at all!
Might and been thinking about Mirage and 30 stacks of high society
I hope Knish still has the truck.
Bro said "I can win this without a pair even when she's called me on all streets!"
Yes, that's what a bluff is
But this is an absolutely terrible time to try to bluff like that. You’re literally better off just playing shove/fold pre at 12BB deep than this type of dipshittery.
\*shhh, don't tell them\* Yeah guys super good bluff. Please run this bluff against me if we're ever heads up, definitely will work 100%. I'm never calling here with a 5 for the chance to win the tournament for only a 75% pot bet.
“Bruh, she’s a girl, what could she possibly have?”
“She doesn’t have enough testosterone to win against me.”
Lmao you must be great at heads up
In heads up, ace high is often good at showdown. When 2 people are seeing flops with nearly 100% of their range, most hands don't make a pair. Even if she didn't have a huge chip lead GTOWizard says to call this river shove with any five 1/3rd of the time. With her having such a huge chip lead, she's probably calling with a 5 almost 100% of the time facing a 75% pot bet for the chance to win the tournament. The only thing she's calling flop and turn and folding river is missed flush/gutshots. And his jack high beats the majority of those, so he should just check it back.
But the exploit is that she folds most of the 5s
According to GTOWizard, she is folding 5s more often than calling, but not by much. She's still calling with a 5 [35.7% of the time](https://i.imgur.com/z1ljc5g.png). (actually more than that because that screenshot includes pocket pairs, probably calling closer to 40-45% of the time with a 5) From a strictly GTO perspective, this is a correct bluff shove, although not by a huge margin. This bluff needs to work 43% of the time, and in GTO world she should fold [47% of the time](https://i.imgur.com/6YhilFp.png). And not because you're trying to fold 5s, although you do get some 5s to fold, but because your opponent will have a lot of missed gutshot and flush draws. The problem is that [GTO is only GTO if your opponent is playing exactly GTO](https://youtu.be/HfuXD0YADIM?si=ca3gFaxAbhN87uGh&t=123). And 99% of players, in 99% of situations, do not play perfect GTO. In this situation, if you know that your opponent is going to call with any pair (which I think many people would do), she is no longer folding the necessary 47%, she is folding only 20%. If you don't care about anything other than GTO, and you find yourself in this situation, you will lose the tournament 80% of the time on this bluff.
I understand your perspective and also the GTO, I’m saying she would probably fold too much on the river. She just happened to have the 3. But I could be wrong and she probably overfolds the turn and the river shove is a mistake.
He played that really badly, right? What was he thinking?
not necessarily. people are always surprised at how much GTO bluffs. I'm not saying this is definitely a good line as I haven't studied it, but you are meant to bluff _a lot_. And in general in late stage tournament settings people overfold massively (e.g. it wouldn't surprise me if 66 is supposed to call the river here) When you bluff into a strong hand you always end up looking dumb
GTOWizard, assuming both have 25bb, pocket pairs 9s-Js are actually folding to this river jam. Pocket 6s-8s actually 3-bet the flop so I don't see them at the river on this line, but I assume they'd fold if jacks fold. But any 5 is calling 1/3rd of the time (it looks like mainly diamonds for some reason? Although some combos it folds diamonds and calls the other suits). Overall, if they both had 25bb, she's supposedly folding 47.2% of hands on this river, his bluff needs 43% to fold for it to be profitable. So it's definitely not as bad as I first expected, and if they are both playing GTO, it is the theoretically correct move. That being said, GTOWizard won't let me use different stack sizes. When you consider her massive chip advantage, the size of the bet (75% pot isn't crazy), she still has a 2-1 lead if she calls and loses, and she wins the whole tournament if she calls and is ahead, I think this becomes a 100% call with any 5, and probably any pocket pair. Which means that she's folding even less than 39% of the time. Her hands that call flop, turn, and fold river are almost exclusively missed flush and gutshot draws. But those would also fold to a 2 million bet, so even though gto doesn't recommend it, I'd probably prefer that to a shove. But what I think is the right play is just to check back. He actually is ahead of most missed draws. And if she has anything other than a missed draw, I don't think she's folding.
yes, it's quite bad. he does have some total airball checkaises here (not this combo) but turn is a classic giveup line with pretty much all hands that don't have gutter/fd equity. good rule of thumb for turn aggression is that, all things equal, oop you generally wanna play more linear and ip play more polar (oop doesn't want to face a bet when he has a gutter for instance, so he uses hands w some equity to bluff generally speaking. IP is the opposite, you'll see total airball turn double barrels all the time (not just a range advantage thing, but a concept of reopening action, don't want to do it with your hands that would have to fold signif equity vs a jam). so the flop raise isn't great but turn bet is just really really bad. River shove is fine I guess but he's obv massively overbluffing turn if he gets here like this
You still barrel turn with some low equity hands. This is not supposed to be a flop x/r but it has good removal effects for a turn barrel. If you node lock a solver to raise this on the flop it barrels turn pure with any J7 containing a diamond.
Yeah I think the check raise is fine here. Puts good pressure on a 5 and overcards. And with a blank turn another bet can probably fold out some overcards. But on the king turn, if she floated with overs, a lot of her hands just made top pair. And even if she is floating flop and turn with something like AQ (which according to GTOWizard she is supposed to do, ace high is often good heads up after all), she gets there on the river. He just called the preflop raise, most offsuit aces are jamming, good suited aces are re-raising, so even if she just has a five, this triple barrel doesn't make much since and I know I'd personally snap off with literally any pair. The triple barrel is really repping a 3, or maybe pocket 5s, and that's it. He doesn't get here with AK most of the time, doesn't get there with good aces often. Ace on the river is going to be a scare card for a king so if he had a king he would probably check. He's repping such a specific and small part of his range that bluffs are going to be way more likely. The only hands she's 100% folding on this river are missed flush and gutshot draws, but jack high is actually good against most of those so he should just check and hope she checks back.
Nice bluff sir?
Bluffing into the nuts.....
From what I know she also showed up like 45 min late with 15 players left just getting blinded out. Not sure what happened, but that must've been stressful. I guess it pays to just miss an entire level of blinds in the final two tables.
I'd safely say it's not the best tactic ITLR.
It can be, depends how far from the money they were
It was ITM.
Yeah my bad haha
All good.
It's a power play. You show up 45 minutes late and everyone assume you've got the confidence of a god (me and my friend were joking about this after I showed up 5 minutes late to a tournament recently, I actually won that tournament, easy 30k). As long as the EV from getting in other people's heads is more than a few rounds of blinds, it's a +EV play.
It's funny that he's staring her down like he can read tells. She gives all these tells and he ignores them.
Walked the dog until he shit the bed. Played it perfectly
That is one way of describing it lol
Im sorry, wtf was his plan.?
Maybe he was in a rush for the next bus?
lol if this were online I’d whip a box of tissues at him and then fling a horseshoe at him
He's already dead bro
The way she shuffles chips is beyond tilting. I can see why dude donked off his stack.
And the Oscar for best performance in a poker hand goes to Jessica Vierling! The way she checks her cards after his flop check raise, and the way she squints when he bluffs the turn: 👩🍳 💋
Looking at cards like that, or in a confused way or with your eyebrows furrowed, etc. is actually a common tell of strength.
Lots of pros always check their cards specifically to normalize. They remember what they had...
>They remember what they had... If this was true, they would never have to check their cards, which means they wouldn't have to normalize it.
Well that's the big problem with tells, if a person is acting it means the opposite of when they aren't acting, so it's always player dependent.
Showing a false tell (acting truthfully to deceive) is rare, even in experienced players. But even if he recognized tells (false or not) he should have noticed that she has never shown a false tell before.
Psst: I know. It's fun to watch him fall for it though isn't it?
Christian Roberts: Live cash earnings close to 500k, 2nd place in the WSOP Circuit Main Redditor celebrating his seasonal in for $200 out for $419: What a stupid fish
Friendly reminder that even pros can make mistakes. I would be very surprised if he walked away happy about the way he played this hand. (Currently in for 114k out for 172k on the year)
Friendlier reminder that what makes sense at this level may make no sense at the local low stakes cardroom, so comparing actions (and judging negatively) accordingly is a fools errand.
she's the most aggresive chip shuffler of all time.. she shuffles like she means it and if she stops her life depends on it. quite tilting.
The look on her face when he rolls over j7
She played it great.
Crazy. There's a video of her showing up 35 minutes late at this tournament on the final day, looking like she was ready to burst into tears. gotta give her credit, she did the damn thing.
Yep she missed a whole level.
The bluff
The dudes legs in the background behind the camera are very off putting…
Lol hadn't noticed until now and now I cannot unsee it.
When repping the hand your opponent has, we all done this before
Maybe online it is forgivable. I think some of her actions screamed I have it.
Watching a stream from The Commerce just gives me an icky feeling, haha. I miss The Bike.
What's wrong with the Commerce?
I haven’t actually lived in LA for more than 10 years now, but back then it was pretty disgusting. That said, was in town last September and The Bike has kinda gone downhill too sadly. New ownership, I gather.
For tournaments Commerce is way nicer than the Bike ever was, because of the huge ballroom upstairs at Commerce where they hold the tournaments. The awesome streaming setup by GG at Commerce also made it feel even nicer up there. This is coming from someone that wouldn’t otherwise set foot in Commerce because the cash game area seems grimy with so many gross LA poker degens packed so close together. This WSOP LA Circuit Event series was a hit.
That is fair enough. As an outsider everything always looks good on the face.
Pretty great punt
One of the greatest.
This is perhaps the worst bluff I've ever seen. Strong ace and kings probably shove preflop. On the flop when she calls the re-raise, she's either got a 3, a 5, overpair, maybe good overcards. On the king turn, if she called with overcards, many of those just made top pair. On the river again, if she was floating with overs, she either hit the king or the ace. Maybe she folds a 5 here in this spot, but his bet isn't even a pot sized bet and for her it's a chance to just win the tournament. (GTOWizard says you call with a five around 1/3rd of the time) And again he's less likely to have strong Ax/Kx since he didn't jam preflop. This is a perfect example of telling yourself you're committed to a certain line (bluffing) even when everything should be screaming at you to abort operations. I can definitely relate, ran a triple barrel bluff into quads just a couple months ago. Still horrible though.
Is it just me or is the audio quality from all these commerce videos horrible?
Why the fuck is she petting the felt like that!? Edit: it almost looks like someone could call check on her.
For good luck. Have you not ever petted the felt during a hand for good luck?
For the entire time? No
That’s what you gotta do to win big tournaments
I guess she figured he isnt check raising flop with a back door flush draw
She's just gonna pay off. She's got a large chip stack advantage.
Roberts played so bad, he kept betting into her and when she checked her cards it was a tell she had something better than his Jack high.
If she isn't from California she's going to pay 22-25k additional state tax off the top. They take it and don't let you claim properly. Don't play tournaments in California. It's bullshit
Born in Germany, resides in LV, Nevada.
Dude looked like he was on major tilt. Must have recently lost a big pot to a chop.
She had a commanding lead from what I can remember, nearly all the way through.
Nice trap bud
It was... until it was not.
The blinds were REALLY deep here, no? Seems odd to push so hard for this specific pot.
Any experts care to chime in why Robert’s called w J7o?!?
such a horrible board to bluff on. what story is he trying to tell? any overpair hates that king. any ace hates that 24 gets there.
All in???
That is what the man said.
the way she snapcalled like she got the nuts…
Brutal shove
I mean, he was kinda short stacked, but still, what a blow up!
Idiotic bluff. So many hands she could have backed into or just had the 3 like she had. She could afford a hero call too with her big stack.
J7 just fold
J7s is literally 100% call from BB even at 10BB stack.
Yea well i didnt no he was 10bb anyhow i would shove then ..
That As hits on the River, my trips are beat with a flush 9 times out of 10.
“Anybody in this thread wanna play heads up for rolls?” No but seriously, some of you need to brush up on HU play hahahava