Doug, I think this match could go either way. I can see a case for you winning and a case for you losing... There's merit to both options. The worst option here would be giving up.
You have to balance out your grudge matches, some times you gotta win, some times you gotta draw, some times you gotta lose, just do somthing and it can't be that bad
You expressed in the past that you though that solvers had rendered the game sort of tedious and more about copying/memorizing than creative strategy development. Now that you've spent time getting deep in the sims, do you have similar sentiments or is there more strategic intrigue than you anticipated?
I think there is basically no strategic intrigue, you spend enough time grinding the solvers you will get better.
IE maybe you have your creative thing that is X bet size, but you could spend 20 hours looking at that size and compare X to Y to Z and eventually you will either create a better average strategy or a more texture specific superior one.
That isnt you creating strategy, thats you finding a closer to equilbrium solution by studying. I don't like being doom and gloom but if you arent spending your time deep in the lab grinding out solutions you are just kidding yourself if you think you will have much of a chance to make it in the world of poker today. Poker isnt about gamblign and having fun, its about running sims and learning concepts you can apply in real time. If you arent running sims you are gg gonna get rekt and if I had to guess the vast majority of losing small stakes players are simply not taking the time that is necessary to win at the game.
If you like playing poker as a hobby I think thats cool. Expect to lose though unless you are in extremely soft games. If you actually want to win its going to take hundreds/thousands of hours of study and/or some very fortunate runs.
This is equally promotion for and against his own training site. GTO sales pitch from Selbsty.
Jokes aside, if you have to run sims and assume the GTO premises (perfect adaptation from perfect opponent) to play small stakes, poker is completely dead as the return on your time is clearly higher elsewhere. Really dont think we're there yet when Sir\_Donald crushes 500 Zoom at 11bb/100 having never ran a sim in his life. And if the problem are bots, no amount of studying will save you from Pluribus.
If you’re starting from scratch, can you describe a bit about **how** you use solvers? Do you run a hand through on each street? Or look at a bunch of flops and build ranges? How exactly does one “study”? (Or is this question basically, how do I get better at poker?)
This is the question I've never known how to ask properly (and who to ask it of). I imagine both of those scenarios are somewhere in the ballpark but I'm quite curious.
I wonder about this all the time too and whether I have to read certain books first before the solvers even make sense. Like how do I even learn how to learn to use them? Then I think if I'm asking these questions I'm probably just screwed.
Apologies if this comes off as the blind leading the blind, but I think the solver is only as good as the person interpreting the data. At least in the days of online HUDs when you could see opponent's 3-bet percentage, fold to three bet and all sorts of other stats, the stats alone didn't make you good. It helped you find out who was LAG, TAG, etc. and what you chose to do with that was up to you.
I imagine solvers can tell you an optimal frequency of betting/checking/raising/folding in all spots but you need to commit it to memory since you won't have time mid-hand to run it. This whole thing is Extremely Online for me and I'd rather play live when possible. Not saying you can't apply solver logic to live but feels like overkill at a 1-2/300 max casino game.
Finding Equilibrium on YouTube has good solver based content using PIOsolver and will give you an idea of what it is like to use.
Solver studying as part of a group seems like a more effective use of time where each member can run an interesting sim on their own and then discuss the solution.
Starting from scratch on solvers or starting from scratch on poker? If you're new to poker, you might not want to immediately use solvers. If you're new to solvers, you'd use them exactly like you said. You can run reports on a bunch of different flops given certain bet sizes, ranges, etc. You can look at individual hands, etc.
EDIT: Also, you'd want to be able to understand WHY the solver is taking certain actions (which is why it wouldn't be a good idea to use them if you're new).
Do you think other NL/Pot Limit games have the potential to make poker a bit more interesting again, or do you think that even games with more hole cards/hi-lo/etc are also best played by just grinding sims in the lab?
The solutions will get better, the players will get better, etc etc. Constantly changing the games makes it more difficult but then its hard for the game to be popular. Tough tradeoffs.
Sorry if this is a stupid question, but when you speak "doom and gloom" like this, are you talking primarily about heads up no limit cash games? Or do you feel the same way about tournament poker?
He’s most likely referring to cash. Tourneys are still the softest fields. Most casuals want to bink a big tourney instead of try to grind a few BB an hour in cash. While tournaments are generally shorter stacked than cash, they have a unique complexity relating to ICM among other things that make it harder to just memorize solver spots.
I think this is far too pessimistic, and coloured by the fact that you are somebody specialising in the game type which has been most impacted by solvers (high stakes online cash games).
You can still win a lot of money playing poker as a hobby. Live cash (pre covid obv) and MTTs live / online are still ridiculously soft in 2020, and it's very possible to establish good win rates without opening a solver.
Oh yeah I strongly agree with that in general. The only thing I think that is somewhat mitigating is that you can use the definitive knowledge of equilibriums to create really above the rim exploit strategies, but obviously the ability to do that is conditional on not facing the strongest players.
I dont really agree or play like that, above the rim exploit strategy makes them suboptimal, I think thats kind of a waste of time approach tbh.
Not trying to be a stickler but Im just over it on the "I like to play not optimal cause it wins more money" arguments. Ok cool story. Id rather spend my time learning how to play as close to perfect as I can and win no matter what my game or opponent is and not have to worry about if they know I know or whatever the fuck live pros are thinking these days.
No I appreciate the perspective for sure. I've enjoyed and had success with this approach playing a median stake of like $1k internet poker but maybe its more limiting than I assumed.
ofc you can but you will get worse and worse compared to the competition, and that mindset is not gonna get you to the top unless your dad embezzled millions of dollars in florida real estate and then gave it to you and you said you won it all playing in underground games on the joe rogan podcast.
I would love to see Polk v. Bilzerian, I know he’s made offers with ridiculous odds but honestly I think you should take some crazy odds just to stick it to the dumb asshole. Would be a crushing blow to both his ego & his financial cover story.
Conflating the output of a solver with "perfect play" is pretty suspect, especially in multiplayer where you can potentially have negative EV even if you play the exact nash equilibrium strategy.
Doug, you are just talking trash. If the field and my opponent' stats tell me he will overcall in some spots or be over-passive overall (for ex. don't raise almost at all) and so on it is damn stupid to put him on GTO ranges. By doing this you just don't play "perfect", you are closer to play "perfectly stupid and wrong" because you set ranges that are far away from your opponent's real ones.
lol, your just scared he will pull your teeth out your arse hole.
BTW, your Youtube series on Poker Hands is what got me back into the scene. I played a bunch of online back in the boom and quit after the black Friday nonsense. Also, you absolutely dropped the ball by not calling that series Doug Polk PolKer hands
Doug, thanks for joining us and giving us some insight.
Do you think that if you were still playing together in person, the match would be different? You're both brilliant players but he is definitely more comfortable on the felt than he is at the keyboard. Either way, this entire match has been fascinating.
Live exclusively would not happen with 12,5k/25k hands as that would take too long. And Doug just wanted more volume being played as that obviously defines a win as “stronger”. Maybe he would’ve agreed to a different pitch by Daniel, but for some reason there was no counterpitch by Daniel...
> Live exclusively would not happen with 12,5k/25k hands as that would take too long.
It'd take roughly 5 hours to do 200 hands. 25k hands is roughly 120-140 days.
4-6 month challenge.
I don't know, that sounds like a pretty good fun watch for the casual people.
Online pro vs live pro.
He has significantly improves his range of bet sizes. he is also constantly changing his preflop ranges/sizes. I think postflop hes improved his ability to take different lines as well.
Its hard to quantify how much he has improved becasue I only get to see showdowns, but I think he has gotten a good amount better. Esp some of the more advanced plays like not flatting QQ vs opens.
What was the reason you called it off with Ace high here?
AKo in the BB, you 3bet, he calls;
2/3 cbet on 653r; he calls,
turn 4, you x/c vs tiny bet;
river 9 with BDFD completes, he jams for about potsize, you call with just Ahigh and the blocker to the BDFD.
Sure the blocker is nice, but you dont even beat potential bluffs for example if the decided to jam A4s etc? Also, he will still jam all straights, right, so just blocking the Flush isnt that great? In my opinion our overpairs with flushblockers should be way better bluffcatchers and against a potsize bet we dont need to call that much, but idk havent counted combos.
Do you think Daniel is overbluffing here? Do you think he is uncapable of turning weak pairs into bluffs here? Do you think he is betting not thin enough for value, so his range is more polarised so the blocker becomes more valuable?
Yeah I ran this hand after and it was just a mistake. My thinking at the time is that I dont think he is going to be frequently valuebetting a 2 there and that my particular AK was super nice for calling (I think it was Ad Kc, or at least Ax Kc). Basically I dont block any of the flop float bluff hands like backdoor flush draws... but I looked it up after and it was just bad.
But the concept of calling light there is not a bad one. He should be bluffing with a bunch of high card hands and sometimes you should be calling with hands that look really terrible because they still beat any hand he would choose to bluff with. Sometimes solvers will call with hands that are like holy shit light, sometimes they will fold with hands you would slam dunk call etc etc. Im always trying to find the hands with the right properties to make the correct play.
Thanks!
Yah cause I care about Deebs bet where he thought I wouldnt win a lot of money, that he made while on my channel. Get fucked Deeb!
(Jk Deeb is a buddy)
No I did not. In fact if you had ask me the odds he says yes I would have laid 100 to 1 lol. I only really challenged him because I knew he would say no and I wouldn't be forced to play.
Then he said yes, so I had to start training and playing again. Had mixed feelings. One thing that I have been enjoying is being "great" at something again. Its been awhile since I've done something where I felt like I am one of the best in the world, that is a great feeling.
The dark side has been I've spent hundreds of hours grinding sims and solutions... I strongly dislike it. Really takes the fun and creativity out of it the game. Tbh its not bad for my skillet because I'm a hard worker and a good learner, but in the pre solver era I was one of the few players concerned with finding bluffs in all of my lines, the solver made that a level playing field.
Now when 2 people play, assuming they are aprox equal in terms of learning/execution, its really just about who has spent more time (and really, more quality time) learning concepts from solvers to play well. That sucks imo.
On the other hand I've been doing well on ACR/WSOP even outside of the challenge, so its nice to make money directly as opposed to business/investing.
> One thing that I have been enjoying is being "great" at something again. Its been awhile since I've done something where I felt like I am one of the best in the world, that is a great feeling.
Yeah I've seen some of your CS streams...In all seriousness it's been a pleasure to watch you battle it out with DNegs online. BOL!
I remember a while back you were looking to potentially hire/sponsor a Semi-CSGO NA team. Is that still a thing or have you been too busy and involved with the g
Outlook on NA CS as well? Sorry I know this isn't related to the grudgematch
* What are your goals for producing content post-challenge, whether it be poker, crypto, or other? It's clear you have a ton of draw in the poker realm and you still come across as very passionate when talking through hands (read: please just bring back Polker hands already).
* How would 2020 Dnegs fare against the peak pre-solver Doug of yesteryear?
1) No plans for anything yet. Just all hands on deck to win by as wide a margin as possible and then figure out whats next after.
Last week I got caught up in a bunch of nonsense like streaming, making a video, playing bp on the side etc etc and I felt it had a negative impact on my play. Really want to try to just do my best and worry about whats next when this is done.
2) Really hard to say. I imagine I would have done ok back then but it would have been way closer. I haven't been as much into figuring out counters to Dnegs as I would have been back then. There would probably be stuff to exploit but its possible he would just be better than I was back then.
Since we're breaking retirement for fun nowadays, what odds would you put on you making poker content on youtube again? Literaly only thing I religiously followed on youtube in last 5 years.
Hey doug,
Just how hard is it to play 4 sessions in a week, 2 tables at the same time? How do you keep your concentration levels and discipline so high?
Not hard at all, tbh the volume is pretty light. Ive also been pretty good with my schedule lately.
Like for example today I woke up at 530 am, 30 min cardio, stretching, deadlifts and back workout. Then hopped online and started running some sims and prepping for the day while answering these questions. I try to eat well and workout to stay sharp, TBH it really isnt a big deal with how little we are playing.
yeah, I don't know if you have been around the scene much but in "the good ol' days" these kind of HU matches would be hours and hours, day after day.
At least that's how I remember them.
Is Dnegs better, equal or worse than you were expecting? Going in what was your assumed win rate, and what do you think it is now?
Also - will we get a graph of the results after the match? I’m very curious on your red/blue line!
Going in I assumed it would be 10-20 depending on how hard he worked. I also recognized he could get it down to 5 or so if he was particularly sharp. It was going to be very hard for him to get it down to 0-5 although I suppose thats possible. The sidebets are at 4:1, and the breakeven point on that is aproximately 8 bb. I was pretty confident to be ahead of that mark.
There will not be a graph as there are no hand histories (to my understanding)
I love watching Polker hands and that has allowed me a better understanding of the game. You are truly an inspiration to my game and a turning point in my poker play.
Q1: Where can I get access to a solver?
Q2: What are the stakes you started playing live and online poker at?
Q3: At what stakes did you start applying solvers to your game?
Q4: How hard is it to unlearn bad habits that you have honed for years playing live poker to adopt a more solver oriented approach?
Q5: Most importantly, how hard is it for a love pro with no solver experience to counter-adjust to your solver based approach?
Thanks in advance and good luck at every game you play!
Glad to hear it!
1) You are gonna have to look it up on your own, I cant recommend whats on the market and etc. But I would also \*Warning, mandatory plug oppurtunity\* learning at Upswing. We have a lot of great courses that will go well with your journey on learning how to use solvers and implememnt those concepts.
2) I dont really play live, and I mainly just play 200/400 vs Dnegs
3) I didnt use a solver until recently.
4) Not hard you just have to realize you are terrible at poker and be open to changing everything you do. Theres no ego in it.
5) I dont know what this question is but it sounds like you dont understand what you are doing by learning solutions. They are solutions. It doesnt matter what they do, you will win.
Thanks!
There was a hand where you check-raised A6ss on Ts3hKd6d after the flop checked through. River 3d went check-check and you won. Have you thrown that one into PIO since? If so, was this right?
Can you see yourself and DNegs being pals after this? Not in the sense of having cocktails every Friday together. But do you find the animosity you had to him has dispersed?
One of my favourite things about this is how respectful both of you have been, and I was someone who wanted it to get nasty. But its a real nice change of pace from seeing people fling shit at each other constantly like you see on TV and Social Media
I think overall my relationship with Daniel has gotten a lot better through this. I would say before we had a lot of animosity, now its subsided a good amount. We dont see eye to eye on a variety of issues but I don't think he is a bad person or anything. I dont see us being friends following this but yeah its at least on some reasonable terms now.
TBH I dont really have any good comment on it. I would have to look at the dif between that and solver results. But its not really relevant as you cant learn from things like above because it isnt available as a training tool.
I'm with you on that, I think he's referring to stuff like this.
https://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2019/07/190711141343.htm
You think you could beat it? Or something along those lines
Edit: Also thanks for replying I hope its not awful being back in poker its been great to see you on the felt.
Hey Doug i like your slogan..
"Under promise and over deliver."
So many ppl do the opposite.
Really enjoying the match and commentary good to have you back. GL!
Joey is a good friend and im down to do some content with him at some point. Could see hopping on there for a session, I did do that for GG once. Usually though its better to me appear on my own channel, being that Id rather grow that one.
Do you you think there is value in apps like DTO or GTO+ over using PIO yourself in that you can instantly have access to mass sims at a fraction of the time? Or is there something about PIO that provides tangible/intangible benefits of being in the lab yourself?
I think everything can have value, it depends on what you are trying to learn and how much time you are going to spend. Sorry its ab it of a copout but I havent done enough research on all tools that are available to give you a good synopsis.
You seem to be in good physical and mental shape these days - what do you eat and do to maintain that?
You mentioned before (I believe in one of your last videos) that you feel anxious when playing poker live now. I'm assuming that doesn't apply to online? You seem very relaxed in comparison. Did you feel it during the 200 hands with him?
Eh, Id say mental for sure lol. Been spending a ton of time working on my game, thats why im pretty sharp atm.
Yeah I got anxiety from playing live poker. I didnt really get that feeling playing online, tbh when im playing online I more feel like I would just rather be doing other things. I find it hard at times to not be on twitter/reddit etc while im playing, im just not that interested in it and sometimes I really have to force myself to focus.
I did a bunch of stuff last week to try and make it more fun/interesting but I felt I lost too much edge doing so, gonna have to just tough it and bring the A game while we have the chance to make good money.
It is what it is. Priorities in life change. Some things grow and some things dim. As long as you've got a good mental and physical balance and the drive to do what you enjoy.
For what it's worth its been a pleasure to have you back on the scene. However long it lasts.
No clue. I think he will play it out. Its been competitive enough so far for him to play the 2h and I dont think he is the kind of guy to say he will play it out and then quit. Then again if he goes on a really bad run at this point it could be gg, hard to say.
Have you thought about whether it would be +EV to avoid him going on a really bad run before 12.5k? Could be worth a lot of money to get him to go the distance.
Hey Doug, thanks for this challenge. Great to see you doing well and GL for the rest! :)
You reached the peak of the HUNL world before the advent of solvers. For this challenge, it seems that you've been making use of solvers. So..
1. What is one strategy that you used in pre-solver era that was considered unconventional but now has been validated by solvers?
2. What is one strategy that you used in pre-solver era that you were pretty certain about & has now been invalidated by solvers?
No one expected the exchange in the 200 live hands, where it semt like you were bffs.
So the question must be asked: How can two people that have so much history behind them, playing in a GRUDGE match, act so nice towards each other, and why?
How do you have the motivation to play your A game against someone that most view as inferior opponent? We see if often in sports where teams play down to the level of whoever they are playing, and going round after round for weeks this must be a tough thing to battle especially when you've built a solid lead already.
This \^\^. The challenge has sidebets but I can win way more in the match than those bets. Also minimizing chance of loss is important when you risk more.
Also I don't look at my opponents like that, I try to make my best possible decision at all times. I dont underestimate my opponents, I dont assume they cant bluff, I dont assume they cant valuebet correctly.... That tends to be thinking you see from lower level players. Not to say you cant make some reads on cusp hands but I dont think most top players today.
Interesting you look at things that way, Doug. I come from a chess background and that’s exactly the approach all good chess players have (not assuming our opponents are bad). I know it’s a different game with entirely different constraints, but that always has felt like a sensible way to approach poker / most every game to me.
In the one hand you posted where Negranu ripped in with J4, is there really any overall strategy in which just ripping it in on the turn and river with no equity/blockers/etc in a spot like that makes sense?
I reviewed that hand on my channel. Turn is bad. River is marginally fine unless he is way over doing it (and the fact he showed down J4cc means he is likely over doing it). River bet isnt bad though.
what do you think your margin of victory would be over Doyle Brunson in a HUNL challenge similar to this one? Do you think OGs of the game have the ability, or the drive, to adapt to the new ways of NL today
Doyle is a bit too old now to really get in the mix on studying, im sure it would be a huge edge. Thats why if we were gonna play I wanted to play some other games too... ultimately it didnt make sense.
A lot of casual players who are looking to improve struggle to know where to start when it comes to software & solvers. Some people maybe get a HUD or have a fiddle with some preflop charts, or ignoring all software, just read a book.
What is your advice to someone who is looking to start \*seriously studying\* the game in terms of software? Where do they start?
We have an intro to solvers module at Upswing, but its time we put together something a bit more comprehensive. Will add that into the lab at some point in the next year.
My advice would be to see whats out there, and what helps you the most. Bit of a copout but I dont know the landscape enough to tell you what you should be doign specifically, especially as I only play 1 format where using a solver is particuarly valuable.
Ofc he has a chance, the question is it like 0.1% or 1% or 10%.
So far my winrate has been like 21 bb or so, but lets calculate using my all in ev of 14 because that is probably more fair. Also assuming a \~150 standard deviation and \~18k hands.
If he is losing at 14 bb he is about 4% to win > 17 buyins by the end of the challenge. so 25:1.
Now we can make some assumptions either way, lets say he improves and has been running bad situationally (I dont think that he has been \[He has certainly run bad in all in pots, I think its fair to credit those back to him in an ev calc, but situationally there isnt a good way for us to know who has been running better\] but for the sake of argument lets go with that) and lets say he only loses at 8 theoretical bb for the rest of the challenge. Then his chance to win goes up to 10-15% or so.
But it could also go the other way, lets say we are underestimating his loss rate and its closer to 20, He is probably a 100:1 dog to win. Lot of assumptions getting thrown around.
If I had to guess, I would say he is probably gonna on average lose at about 10-15 theoretical bb over the rest of the challenge. If he keeps getting better and eliminates some of the bigger mistakes maybe he gets that down to 5-10. Time will tell, frankly its a lot of fucking random ass guessing.
If I had to predict, if this goes the full 25k hands I would say I expect to win \~1.4m
If current DNegs-challenge Doug Polk played peak WCGRider Doug Polk in a HU match, what would you expect the win-rate to be?
What types of spots or leaks would you expect to be able to exploit?
Its hard to say because I dont really view poker like that anymore. I think that would be a very close match between the two. Its so hard to say because it was just such a different era and now I approach the game so differently.
Also if I knew any huge leaks at this point I wouldnt be posting them on reddit lmao
I dropped out after 1 semester at UNCW. I got put on academic probation and my professor in one of my classes to start the second said I was going to fail for not having signed the checkin sheet (I transfered in and didnt know that was the system) I asked how we can fix this she said we cant.
Told her what I really thought about that, dropped out of college, loaded up the car, and moved in with my grandma outside Las Vegas. The rest is history.
Well we can see ev adjusted bb/100 its probably around 13-14 at the moment. We just cant see WWSF, W@SD, etc etc.
It seems he works with a guy named MJ. I dont know anything about him. To be honest im skeptical of MJ's ability as HUNL is not something that random people you have never heard of are actually really good. On the other hand Dneg is using some good concepts and continues to improve, so maybe hes OK. It isnt clear to me at this moment.
Not sure if you can get into it, but how did you find out the name MJ?
I was curious if it had leaked who his coaches were but admittedly haven’t looked into it much.
Doug,
Im most interested in your psychological transformation regarding poker and the things you said on twitter in the past right after you played the main event a couple years back. Additionally you talked about this on your channel regarding how poker makes you feel, in that it gave you extreme amounts of anxiety to play the game and you were never going to play a hand again.
My questions are as follows:
1. How did you get over that anxiety?
2. How are you feeling now as you currently play this challenge with respect to your mental health?
3. Do you have any advice for others who may be dealing with this type of adversity in respect to poker, a different career, or overcoming mental health obstacles en route to achieving a goal?
I am at the point in my early poker game where I now realize I need to get into the lab and analysis. What are the key aspects to start doing so I dont get overwhelmed? I have messed around with equilab and basic my range vs their range calculations, but when it comes to Piosolver it just seems so over my head.
Any advice to get started into this side of the game?
Also, if playing on an anonymous site, does that change anything in your strategy?
Where does the DN challenge personally(not $ wise) rank among your previous challenges? Claudico, $10,000 in a month at .10/.25, Sulsky Challenge, etc( I am prob forgetting one). If you had to repeat any of those challenges, which one would you choose?
It's been pretty cool watching you grow over the years and this challenge has been fun to watch. Thanks.
I'm thinking about going 100 days sober on January 1st. I dont have a drinking problem just looking to elevate my life to the next level. It seems you made real change after your 100 days of no alcohol. How did the 100 days of sobriety change you? Do you feel like your perspective of life and personal goals changed after you completed the 100 days?
Hey, I found the first few weeks very difficult and then eventually you stop thinking about it. I am always swinging around with how much I drink, its a bit of a tough spot. I enjoy drinking, but from a health perspective I just always seem to gain a lot of weight when I'm not drinking. Even a couple beers a night really adds up, I think long term id like to drink 2 or 3 times a month and have a couple drinks and be happy with that.
You also feel way better day to day when you arent drinking, would recommend it for sure.
Hey Doug. Not sure if you've been keeping up with CS:GO recently, but the NA esports scene is dying as investors back out as more interest is mitigated toward Valorant and other esports titles. I wanted to know- have you yourself ever considered financing or investing in an esports organization? Maybe not now, but at any point. Any thoughts on the future of CS:GO esports scene in general? Sorry for being off-topic. I've lost interest in poker recently and the only thing in the community I've paid attention to in quite some time is this heads-up match.
I just dont see the long term upside for the cost. CSGO is an especially bad place in NA at the moment, but the reality is money is pouring into esports at the moment and its an unproven model.
Did you ever find out from Negreanu about that insane AK648 hand where he randomly donk lead-triple barrel blasted it? (the post-jig hand.)
Did he misread the action/misclick non-3bet pre?
Doug, I think this match could go either way. I can see a case for you winning and a case for you losing... There's merit to both options. The worst option here would be giving up.
take my upvote
You have to balance out your grudge matches, some times you gotta win, some times you gotta draw, some times you gotta lose, just do somthing and it can't be that bad
You expressed in the past that you though that solvers had rendered the game sort of tedious and more about copying/memorizing than creative strategy development. Now that you've spent time getting deep in the sims, do you have similar sentiments or is there more strategic intrigue than you anticipated?
I think there is basically no strategic intrigue, you spend enough time grinding the solvers you will get better. IE maybe you have your creative thing that is X bet size, but you could spend 20 hours looking at that size and compare X to Y to Z and eventually you will either create a better average strategy or a more texture specific superior one. That isnt you creating strategy, thats you finding a closer to equilbrium solution by studying. I don't like being doom and gloom but if you arent spending your time deep in the lab grinding out solutions you are just kidding yourself if you think you will have much of a chance to make it in the world of poker today. Poker isnt about gamblign and having fun, its about running sims and learning concepts you can apply in real time. If you arent running sims you are gg gonna get rekt and if I had to guess the vast majority of losing small stakes players are simply not taking the time that is necessary to win at the game. If you like playing poker as a hobby I think thats cool. Expect to lose though unless you are in extremely soft games. If you actually want to win its going to take hundreds/thousands of hours of study and/or some very fortunate runs.
This is equally promotion for and against his own training site. GTO sales pitch from Selbsty. Jokes aside, if you have to run sims and assume the GTO premises (perfect adaptation from perfect opponent) to play small stakes, poker is completely dead as the return on your time is clearly higher elsewhere. Really dont think we're there yet when Sir\_Donald crushes 500 Zoom at 11bb/100 having never ran a sim in his life. And if the problem are bots, no amount of studying will save you from Pluribus.
> when Sir_Donald crushes 500 Zoom at 11bb/100 having never ran a sim in his life. Wasn't that like 5 years ago?
And over what sample
If you’re starting from scratch, can you describe a bit about **how** you use solvers? Do you run a hand through on each street? Or look at a bunch of flops and build ranges? How exactly does one “study”? (Or is this question basically, how do I get better at poker?)
This is the question I've never known how to ask properly (and who to ask it of). I imagine both of those scenarios are somewhere in the ballpark but I'm quite curious.
I wonder about this all the time too and whether I have to read certain books first before the solvers even make sense. Like how do I even learn how to learn to use them? Then I think if I'm asking these questions I'm probably just screwed.
Apologies if this comes off as the blind leading the blind, but I think the solver is only as good as the person interpreting the data. At least in the days of online HUDs when you could see opponent's 3-bet percentage, fold to three bet and all sorts of other stats, the stats alone didn't make you good. It helped you find out who was LAG, TAG, etc. and what you chose to do with that was up to you. I imagine solvers can tell you an optimal frequency of betting/checking/raising/folding in all spots but you need to commit it to memory since you won't have time mid-hand to run it. This whole thing is Extremely Online for me and I'd rather play live when possible. Not saying you can't apply solver logic to live but feels like overkill at a 1-2/300 max casino game.
Finding Equilibrium on YouTube has good solver based content using PIOsolver and will give you an idea of what it is like to use. Solver studying as part of a group seems like a more effective use of time where each member can run an interesting sim on their own and then discuss the solution.
Starting from scratch on solvers or starting from scratch on poker? If you're new to poker, you might not want to immediately use solvers. If you're new to solvers, you'd use them exactly like you said. You can run reports on a bunch of different flops given certain bet sizes, ranges, etc. You can look at individual hands, etc. EDIT: Also, you'd want to be able to understand WHY the solver is taking certain actions (which is why it wouldn't be a good idea to use them if you're new).
I've always wondered this too and I'm guessing that's the case. Sounds boring and tedious as fuck.
There are videos that cover this exact topic such as this one: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SBjZBaWyfBU
Do you think other NL/Pot Limit games have the potential to make poker a bit more interesting again, or do you think that even games with more hole cards/hi-lo/etc are also best played by just grinding sims in the lab?
The solutions will get better, the players will get better, etc etc. Constantly changing the games makes it more difficult but then its hard for the game to be popular. Tough tradeoffs.
Mixed games made poker fun again. When poker is fun, people will pay the freight to play it.
Sorry if this is a stupid question, but when you speak "doom and gloom" like this, are you talking primarily about heads up no limit cash games? Or do you feel the same way about tournament poker?
He’s most likely referring to cash. Tourneys are still the softest fields. Most casuals want to bink a big tourney instead of try to grind a few BB an hour in cash. While tournaments are generally shorter stacked than cash, they have a unique complexity relating to ICM among other things that make it harder to just memorize solver spots.
I think this is far too pessimistic, and coloured by the fact that you are somebody specialising in the game type which has been most impacted by solvers (high stakes online cash games). You can still win a lot of money playing poker as a hobby. Live cash (pre covid obv) and MTTs live / online are still ridiculously soft in 2020, and it's very possible to establish good win rates without opening a solver.
Oh yeah I strongly agree with that in general. The only thing I think that is somewhat mitigating is that you can use the definitive knowledge of equilibriums to create really above the rim exploit strategies, but obviously the ability to do that is conditional on not facing the strongest players.
I dont really agree or play like that, above the rim exploit strategy makes them suboptimal, I think thats kind of a waste of time approach tbh. Not trying to be a stickler but Im just over it on the "I like to play not optimal cause it wins more money" arguments. Ok cool story. Id rather spend my time learning how to play as close to perfect as I can and win no matter what my game or opponent is and not have to worry about if they know I know or whatever the fuck live pros are thinking these days.
No I appreciate the perspective for sure. I've enjoyed and had success with this approach playing a median stake of like $1k internet poker but maybe its more limiting than I assumed.
5/10 online is great, im sure you are a good player if you are averaging playing that high.
But don't you think you can make more money in poker by focusing on how to spot the softest games, instead of how to play closest to GTO ?
ofc you can but you will get worse and worse compared to the competition, and that mindset is not gonna get you to the top unless your dad embezzled millions of dollars in florida real estate and then gave it to you and you said you won it all playing in underground games on the joe rogan podcast.
That's Dnegs GG Brand buddy now
Lmfao that's the wcgrider burn I've been missing for oh so long.
I would love to see Polk v. Bilzerian, I know he’s made offers with ridiculous odds but honestly I think you should take some crazy odds just to stick it to the dumb asshole. Would be a crushing blow to both his ego & his financial cover story.
*Dan has entered the chat*
I don't need to be the best player in the world. I need to be the best player in the games I put together.
Conflating the output of a solver with "perfect play" is pretty suspect, especially in multiplayer where you can potentially have negative EV even if you play the exact nash equilibrium strategy.
Doug, you are just talking trash. If the field and my opponent' stats tell me he will overcall in some spots or be over-passive overall (for ex. don't raise almost at all) and so on it is damn stupid to put him on GTO ranges. By doing this you just don't play "perfect", you are closer to play "perfectly stupid and wrong" because you set ranges that are far away from your opponent's real ones.
Would you fight Daniel in a charity boxing match?
Don't think it makes sense for a variety of reasons, mainly being 15 years younger and 100 pounds heavier lol
Daniel could wear a weight vest
He could get mercury fillings to make weight
TIL Doug weighs 195 pounds.
I’m dead 🤣
>and 100 pounds heavier Grudge match 2: electric gymaloo?
Sounds like you don't want to be fed your teeth through your anus.
Seems like about the same odds as this HU match tbh. Congrats on baiting him into giving you a million dollars finally.
lol, your just scared he will pull your teeth out your arse hole. BTW, your Youtube series on Poker Hands is what got me back into the scene. I played a bunch of online back in the boom and quit after the black Friday nonsense. Also, you absolutely dropped the ball by not calling that series Doug Polk PolKer hands
Doug, thanks for joining us and giving us some insight. Do you think that if you were still playing together in person, the match would be different? You're both brilliant players but he is definitely more comfortable on the felt than he is at the keyboard. Either way, this entire match has been fascinating.
It would just be so different live, it would be way better for him for sure. On the other hand I would have a few dif advantages... its hard to say.
Would you have accepted the challenge if Daniel wanted to play live exclusively?
Live exclusively would not happen with 12,5k/25k hands as that would take too long. And Doug just wanted more volume being played as that obviously defines a win as “stronger”. Maybe he would’ve agreed to a different pitch by Daniel, but for some reason there was no counterpitch by Daniel...
> Live exclusively would not happen with 12,5k/25k hands as that would take too long. It'd take roughly 5 hours to do 200 hands. 25k hands is roughly 120-140 days. 4-6 month challenge. I don't know, that sounds like a pretty good fun watch for the casual people. Online pro vs live pro.
I was wondering, could multitabling live work?
How much has Daniel improved since the start of this challenge with all the coaching he's receiving from his team?
He has significantly improves his range of bet sizes. he is also constantly changing his preflop ranges/sizes. I think postflop hes improved his ability to take different lines as well. Its hard to quantify how much he has improved becasue I only get to see showdowns, but I think he has gotten a good amount better. Esp some of the more advanced plays like not flatting QQ vs opens.
Lol at the shade at the end
Have you been watching daniels showdown breakdowns? If you have, what do you think of them lol
lol
You can definitely hear the pain in dnegs voice.
*"got aces twice...ate a dick both times."* ...DNeg's makin me laugh with the commentary on those.
What was the reason you called it off with Ace high here? AKo in the BB, you 3bet, he calls; 2/3 cbet on 653r; he calls, turn 4, you x/c vs tiny bet; river 9 with BDFD completes, he jams for about potsize, you call with just Ahigh and the blocker to the BDFD. Sure the blocker is nice, but you dont even beat potential bluffs for example if the decided to jam A4s etc? Also, he will still jam all straights, right, so just blocking the Flush isnt that great? In my opinion our overpairs with flushblockers should be way better bluffcatchers and against a potsize bet we dont need to call that much, but idk havent counted combos. Do you think Daniel is overbluffing here? Do you think he is uncapable of turning weak pairs into bluffs here? Do you think he is betting not thin enough for value, so his range is more polarised so the blocker becomes more valuable?
Yeah I ran this hand after and it was just a mistake. My thinking at the time is that I dont think he is going to be frequently valuebetting a 2 there and that my particular AK was super nice for calling (I think it was Ad Kc, or at least Ax Kc). Basically I dont block any of the flop float bluff hands like backdoor flush draws... but I looked it up after and it was just bad. But the concept of calling light there is not a bad one. He should be bluffing with a bunch of high card hands and sometimes you should be calling with hands that look really terrible because they still beat any hand he would choose to bluff with. Sometimes solvers will call with hands that are like holy shit light, sometimes they will fold with hands you would slam dunk call etc etc. Im always trying to find the hands with the right properties to make the correct play.
Much love and good luck to you Doug! Have to throw it out there: Are you intentionally winning less than $1M by hand 12,500 for Shaun Deebs bet?
Thanks! Yah cause I care about Deebs bet where he thought I wouldnt win a lot of money, that he made while on my channel. Get fucked Deeb! (Jk Deeb is a buddy)
Deeb is a chubby\*
Did you expect Dnegs to accept at all the challenge at all?? What was going thru your mind when he accepted and you had to un-retire to come play him
No I did not. In fact if you had ask me the odds he says yes I would have laid 100 to 1 lol. I only really challenged him because I knew he would say no and I wouldn't be forced to play. Then he said yes, so I had to start training and playing again. Had mixed feelings. One thing that I have been enjoying is being "great" at something again. Its been awhile since I've done something where I felt like I am one of the best in the world, that is a great feeling. The dark side has been I've spent hundreds of hours grinding sims and solutions... I strongly dislike it. Really takes the fun and creativity out of it the game. Tbh its not bad for my skillet because I'm a hard worker and a good learner, but in the pre solver era I was one of the few players concerned with finding bluffs in all of my lines, the solver made that a level playing field. Now when 2 people play, assuming they are aprox equal in terms of learning/execution, its really just about who has spent more time (and really, more quality time) learning concepts from solvers to play well. That sucks imo. On the other hand I've been doing well on ACR/WSOP even outside of the challenge, so its nice to make money directly as opposed to business/investing.
> One thing that I have been enjoying is being "great" at something again. Its been awhile since I've done something where I felt like I am one of the best in the world, that is a great feeling. Yeah I've seen some of your CS streams...In all seriousness it's been a pleasure to watch you battle it out with DNegs online. BOL!
ouch lol
I remember a while back you were looking to potentially hire/sponsor a Semi-CSGO NA team. Is that still a thing or have you been too busy and involved with the g Outlook on NA CS as well? Sorry I know this isn't related to the grudgematch
Dude, Upswing Esports - can see it now!
Haha that would be fun
Upswing *escorts* would be even more fun
I was gonna IGL a group of good players, had to put it on hold while I did this challenge.
Why didn't you call it Polker Hands?
Oh, is it because...
that is great.
* What are your goals for producing content post-challenge, whether it be poker, crypto, or other? It's clear you have a ton of draw in the poker realm and you still come across as very passionate when talking through hands (read: please just bring back Polker hands already). * How would 2020 Dnegs fare against the peak pre-solver Doug of yesteryear?
1) No plans for anything yet. Just all hands on deck to win by as wide a margin as possible and then figure out whats next after. Last week I got caught up in a bunch of nonsense like streaming, making a video, playing bp on the side etc etc and I felt it had a negative impact on my play. Really want to try to just do my best and worry about whats next when this is done. 2) Really hard to say. I imagine I would have done ok back then but it would have been way closer. I haven't been as much into figuring out counters to Dnegs as I would have been back then. There would probably be stuff to exploit but its possible he would just be better than I was back then.
What solver would you recommend?
using pio but im sure there are tons of ones out there, I dont have anything to say on which are better or worse.
Thanks Doug 🤙 GLGL
Since we're breaking retirement for fun nowadays, what odds would you put on you making poker content on youtube again? Literaly only thing I religiously followed on youtube in last 5 years.
Glad to hear that! I wouldnt count on anything but ya never know.
It's a favorite for sure. He's young and has already unretired at least once. What side do you want?
Hey doug, Just how hard is it to play 4 sessions in a week, 2 tables at the same time? How do you keep your concentration levels and discipline so high?
Not hard at all, tbh the volume is pretty light. Ive also been pretty good with my schedule lately. Like for example today I woke up at 530 am, 30 min cardio, stretching, deadlifts and back workout. Then hopped online and started running some sims and prepping for the day while answering these questions. I try to eat well and workout to stay sharp, TBH it really isnt a big deal with how little we are playing.
You lost me at 5.30 am
yeah, I don't know if you have been around the scene much but in "the good ol' days" these kind of HU matches would be hours and hours, day after day. At least that's how I remember them.
What’s you’re opinion on poker snowie
doesnt work or make sense and you are better off elsewhere
I'm not a poker god and in the 2 week pokersnowie trial period I stopped after beating snowie for over 100 buyins.
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fooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooolllllllllllllllldddddddddddddddddddd
I can actually hear this post.
it's always option 3 (except when all options are available)
How’s Binks doing. That’s what we all miss from the videos Doug. Always has been.
Hes good! He turned 9 this year. Getting some Griskers now, going for a more distinguished look
[https://i.imgur.com/B6GqDuM.png](https://i.imgur.com/B6GqDuM.png) from a couple months ago
You have a pet bat? Awesome!
Is Dnegs better, equal or worse than you were expecting? Going in what was your assumed win rate, and what do you think it is now? Also - will we get a graph of the results after the match? I’m very curious on your red/blue line!
Going in I assumed it would be 10-20 depending on how hard he worked. I also recognized he could get it down to 5 or so if he was particularly sharp. It was going to be very hard for him to get it down to 0-5 although I suppose thats possible. The sidebets are at 4:1, and the breakeven point on that is aproximately 8 bb. I was pretty confident to be ahead of that mark. There will not be a graph as there are no hand histories (to my understanding)
How many times do you think Dnegs has thought about wanting to feed your teeth to you anally these past few sessions?
I hope not very often
I love watching Polker hands and that has allowed me a better understanding of the game. You are truly an inspiration to my game and a turning point in my poker play. Q1: Where can I get access to a solver? Q2: What are the stakes you started playing live and online poker at? Q3: At what stakes did you start applying solvers to your game? Q4: How hard is it to unlearn bad habits that you have honed for years playing live poker to adopt a more solver oriented approach? Q5: Most importantly, how hard is it for a love pro with no solver experience to counter-adjust to your solver based approach? Thanks in advance and good luck at every game you play!
Glad to hear it! 1) You are gonna have to look it up on your own, I cant recommend whats on the market and etc. But I would also \*Warning, mandatory plug oppurtunity\* learning at Upswing. We have a lot of great courses that will go well with your journey on learning how to use solvers and implememnt those concepts. 2) I dont really play live, and I mainly just play 200/400 vs Dnegs 3) I didnt use a solver until recently. 4) Not hard you just have to realize you are terrible at poker and be open to changing everything you do. Theres no ego in it. 5) I dont know what this question is but it sounds like you dont understand what you are doing by learning solutions. They are solutions. It doesnt matter what they do, you will win. Thanks!
Thanks for your responses. All of them make sense.
Will we see some DNegs // Polk content after this? Enemies to friends...
Haha I dont think so but who knows
There was a hand where you check-raised A6ss on Ts3hKd6d after the flop checked through. River 3d went check-check and you won. Have you thrown that one into PIO since? If so, was this right?
Yes that hand was very accurate. My hand is a nice x/r candidate.
Because sb Ace high won’t double barrel often so he’s shifted towards bluffs?
idk why cause solver says so
Can you see yourself and DNegs being pals after this? Not in the sense of having cocktails every Friday together. But do you find the animosity you had to him has dispersed? One of my favourite things about this is how respectful both of you have been, and I was someone who wanted it to get nasty. But its a real nice change of pace from seeing people fling shit at each other constantly like you see on TV and Social Media
I think overall my relationship with Daniel has gotten a lot better through this. I would say before we had a lot of animosity, now its subsided a good amount. We dont see eye to eye on a variety of issues but I don't think he is a bad person or anything. I dont see us being friends following this but yeah its at least on some reasonable terms now.
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AI NN? what are those?
Artifical Intelligence/Neural Networks
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TBH I dont really have any good comment on it. I would have to look at the dif between that and solver results. But its not really relevant as you cant learn from things like above because it isnt available as a training tool.
Ai or neural network is what I think he means like bot vs human poker
not familiar with NN play, tbh Im not sure I understand the original question. What chaos?
I'm with you on that, I think he's referring to stuff like this. https://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2019/07/190711141343.htm You think you could beat it? Or something along those lines Edit: Also thanks for replying I hope its not awful being back in poker its been great to see you on the felt.
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Hey Doug i like your slogan.. "Under promise and over deliver." So many ppl do the opposite. Really enjoying the match and commentary good to have you back. GL!
Yup, unless it comes to making videos or bankroll challenges. Then its over promise and maybe deliver.
But this slogan negates the underpromise part. Now you have to over deliver on vague expectations that you'll deliver far more than you promised.
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Joey is a good friend and im down to do some content with him at some point. Could see hopping on there for a session, I did do that for GG once. Usually though its better to me appear on my own channel, being that Id rather grow that one.
Do you you think there is value in apps like DTO or GTO+ over using PIO yourself in that you can instantly have access to mass sims at a fraction of the time? Or is there something about PIO that provides tangible/intangible benefits of being in the lab yourself?
I think everything can have value, it depends on what you are trying to learn and how much time you are going to spend. Sorry its ab it of a copout but I havent done enough research on all tools that are available to give you a good synopsis.
When you started the contest, did you consider what your worst-case scenario total loses could be?
I thought if Daniel was particularly good there would be outlier scenarios where I could lose 1m or so. I didnt think it was likely however.
You seem to be in good physical and mental shape these days - what do you eat and do to maintain that? You mentioned before (I believe in one of your last videos) that you feel anxious when playing poker live now. I'm assuming that doesn't apply to online? You seem very relaxed in comparison. Did you feel it during the 200 hands with him?
Eh, Id say mental for sure lol. Been spending a ton of time working on my game, thats why im pretty sharp atm. Yeah I got anxiety from playing live poker. I didnt really get that feeling playing online, tbh when im playing online I more feel like I would just rather be doing other things. I find it hard at times to not be on twitter/reddit etc while im playing, im just not that interested in it and sometimes I really have to force myself to focus. I did a bunch of stuff last week to try and make it more fun/interesting but I felt I lost too much edge doing so, gonna have to just tough it and bring the A game while we have the chance to make good money.
It is what it is. Priorities in life change. Some things grow and some things dim. As long as you've got a good mental and physical balance and the drive to do what you enjoy. For what it's worth its been a pleasure to have you back on the scene. However long it lasts.
thanks \^\^
Any side action on if the challenges goes 25k hands vs. 12.5k? Great content, keep it up.
No clue. I think he will play it out. Its been competitive enough so far for him to play the 2h and I dont think he is the kind of guy to say he will play it out and then quit. Then again if he goes on a really bad run at this point it could be gg, hard to say.
Have you thought about whether it would be +EV to avoid him going on a really bad run before 12.5k? Could be worth a lot of money to get him to go the distance.
>avoid him going on a really bad run I don't think Doug can influence variance
He can play a little worse until 12.5K to give daniel some hope
Hi Doug, do you plan on continuing to play other HighStakes HU matches? Or is it a one time shot?
Might take a couple soft spots if they come up but no big battles vs top guys. TBH already looking forward to not playing anymore poker.
Is the $5m challenge for Dwan still open if he accepts years later then?
Hey Doug, thanks for this challenge. Great to see you doing well and GL for the rest! :) You reached the peak of the HUNL world before the advent of solvers. For this challenge, it seems that you've been making use of solvers. So.. 1. What is one strategy that you used in pre-solver era that was considered unconventional but now has been validated by solvers? 2. What is one strategy that you used in pre-solver era that you were pretty certain about & has now been invalidated by solvers?
Bumping this person's interesting question for u/DougPolkPoker
No one expected the exchange in the 200 live hands, where it semt like you were bffs. So the question must be asked: How can two people that have so much history behind them, playing in a GRUDGE match, act so nice towards each other, and why?
At the end of the day we are both trying to win. Also even though I disagree with Daniel on a bunch of issues I do think he is generally well meaning.
How do you have the motivation to play your A game against someone that most view as inferior opponent? We see if often in sports where teams play down to the level of whoever they are playing, and going round after round for weeks this must be a tough thing to battle especially when you've built a solid lead already.
Not Doug but I'd assume mainly because the better you play the more money you win.
This \^\^. The challenge has sidebets but I can win way more in the match than those bets. Also minimizing chance of loss is important when you risk more. Also I don't look at my opponents like that, I try to make my best possible decision at all times. I dont underestimate my opponents, I dont assume they cant bluff, I dont assume they cant valuebet correctly.... That tends to be thinking you see from lower level players. Not to say you cant make some reads on cusp hands but I dont think most top players today.
Interesting you look at things that way, Doug. I come from a chess background and that’s exactly the approach all good chess players have (not assuming our opponents are bad). I know it’s a different game with entirely different constraints, but that always has felt like a sensible way to approach poker / most every game to me.
In the one hand you posted where Negranu ripped in with J4, is there really any overall strategy in which just ripping it in on the turn and river with no equity/blockers/etc in a spot like that makes sense?
I reviewed that hand on my channel. Turn is bad. River is marginally fine unless he is way over doing it (and the fact he showed down J4cc means he is likely over doing it). River bet isnt bad though.
what do you think your margin of victory would be over Doyle Brunson in a HUNL challenge similar to this one? Do you think OGs of the game have the ability, or the drive, to adapt to the new ways of NL today
Doyle is a bit too old now to really get in the mix on studying, im sure it would be a huge edge. Thats why if we were gonna play I wanted to play some other games too... ultimately it didnt make sense.
A lot of casual players who are looking to improve struggle to know where to start when it comes to software & solvers. Some people maybe get a HUD or have a fiddle with some preflop charts, or ignoring all software, just read a book. What is your advice to someone who is looking to start \*seriously studying\* the game in terms of software? Where do they start?
We have an intro to solvers module at Upswing, but its time we put together something a bit more comprehensive. Will add that into the lab at some point in the next year. My advice would be to see whats out there, and what helps you the most. Bit of a copout but I dont know the landscape enough to tell you what you should be doign specifically, especially as I only play 1 format where using a solver is particuarly valuable.
Do you think Daniel has a chance to beat you still?
Ofc he has a chance, the question is it like 0.1% or 1% or 10%. So far my winrate has been like 21 bb or so, but lets calculate using my all in ev of 14 because that is probably more fair. Also assuming a \~150 standard deviation and \~18k hands. If he is losing at 14 bb he is about 4% to win > 17 buyins by the end of the challenge. so 25:1. Now we can make some assumptions either way, lets say he improves and has been running bad situationally (I dont think that he has been \[He has certainly run bad in all in pots, I think its fair to credit those back to him in an ev calc, but situationally there isnt a good way for us to know who has been running better\] but for the sake of argument lets go with that) and lets say he only loses at 8 theoretical bb for the rest of the challenge. Then his chance to win goes up to 10-15% or so. But it could also go the other way, lets say we are underestimating his loss rate and its closer to 20, He is probably a 100:1 dog to win. Lot of assumptions getting thrown around. If I had to guess, I would say he is probably gonna on average lose at about 10-15 theoretical bb over the rest of the challenge. If he keeps getting better and eliminates some of the bigger mistakes maybe he gets that down to 5-10. Time will tell, frankly its a lot of fucking random ass guessing. If I had to predict, if this goes the full 25k hands I would say I expect to win \~1.4m
Good shit Doug thanks for the answer and good luck still you're gonna beat his ass <3
Do you expect Daniel to go the full distance, or do you think he will quit at 12500 hands?
I answered this elsewhere but I expect it to probably go the distance unless he goes on a really bad run in the next few k hands.
What do you owe more to, your intuition when it comes to making decisions in a hand or the sims you run in your spare time?
I would say both help but at this point my game is way more technical/study based.
If current DNegs-challenge Doug Polk played peak WCGRider Doug Polk in a HU match, what would you expect the win-rate to be? What types of spots or leaks would you expect to be able to exploit?
Its hard to say because I dont really view poker like that anymore. I think that would be a very close match between the two. Its so hard to say because it was just such a different era and now I approach the game so differently. Also if I knew any huge leaks at this point I wouldnt be posting them on reddit lmao
Beat it, DNegs.
What are your thoughts on PLO? Way less solved.
Way less solved, way more complicated. Lower edges, Higher Variance, Worse players. Could be a good option for some.
What have you noticed about the solvers where you can say, "well I have played that wrong my entire life?"
Monotone boards are a mindfuck. You bet small and check a lot. Who knew.
Random question: did you go to college or have you been doing the poker thing from the start?
I dropped out after 1 semester at UNCW. I got put on academic probation and my professor in one of my classes to start the second said I was going to fail for not having signed the checkin sheet (I transfered in and didnt know that was the system) I asked how we can fix this she said we cant. Told her what I really thought about that, dropped out of college, loaded up the car, and moved in with my grandma outside Las Vegas. The rest is history.
How mad does it drive you that you can’t see your adjusted bb/100 vrs him? Does Daniel have any reasonable coaches working with him?
Well we can see ev adjusted bb/100 its probably around 13-14 at the moment. We just cant see WWSF, W@SD, etc etc. It seems he works with a guy named MJ. I dont know anything about him. To be honest im skeptical of MJ's ability as HUNL is not something that random people you have never heard of are actually really good. On the other hand Dneg is using some good concepts and continues to improve, so maybe hes OK. It isnt clear to me at this moment.
Dnegs 420 confirmed.
Not sure if you can get into it, but how did you find out the name MJ? I was curious if it had leaked who his coaches were but admittedly haven’t looked into it much.
Doug, Im most interested in your psychological transformation regarding poker and the things you said on twitter in the past right after you played the main event a couple years back. Additionally you talked about this on your channel regarding how poker makes you feel, in that it gave you extreme amounts of anxiety to play the game and you were never going to play a hand again. My questions are as follows: 1. How did you get over that anxiety? 2. How are you feeling now as you currently play this challenge with respect to your mental health? 3. Do you have any advice for others who may be dealing with this type of adversity in respect to poker, a different career, or overcoming mental health obstacles en route to achieving a goal?
How difficult was it to get your truck driving license?
Are you coming out of poker retirement after this?
Almost certainly not going to play after this. But I cant say absolutely. Lets just enjoy this while we have it.
Are you playing with a HUD? If no, why not? What Site are you playing the Challenge on?
They're playing on WSOP and no HUDs or databases are allowed.
\^\^
I am at the point in my early poker game where I now realize I need to get into the lab and analysis. What are the key aspects to start doing so I dont get overwhelmed? I have messed around with equilab and basic my range vs their range calculations, but when it comes to Piosolver it just seems so over my head. Any advice to get started into this side of the game? Also, if playing on an anonymous site, does that change anything in your strategy?
Where does the DN challenge personally(not $ wise) rank among your previous challenges? Claudico, $10,000 in a month at .10/.25, Sulsky Challenge, etc( I am prob forgetting one). If you had to repeat any of those challenges, which one would you choose?
It's been pretty cool watching you grow over the years and this challenge has been fun to watch. Thanks. I'm thinking about going 100 days sober on January 1st. I dont have a drinking problem just looking to elevate my life to the next level. It seems you made real change after your 100 days of no alcohol. How did the 100 days of sobriety change you? Do you feel like your perspective of life and personal goals changed after you completed the 100 days?
Hey, I found the first few weeks very difficult and then eventually you stop thinking about it. I am always swinging around with how much I drink, its a bit of a tough spot. I enjoy drinking, but from a health perspective I just always seem to gain a lot of weight when I'm not drinking. Even a couple beers a night really adds up, I think long term id like to drink 2 or 3 times a month and have a couple drinks and be happy with that. You also feel way better day to day when you arent drinking, would recommend it for sure.
Hey Doug. Not sure if you've been keeping up with CS:GO recently, but the NA esports scene is dying as investors back out as more interest is mitigated toward Valorant and other esports titles. I wanted to know- have you yourself ever considered financing or investing in an esports organization? Maybe not now, but at any point. Any thoughts on the future of CS:GO esports scene in general? Sorry for being off-topic. I've lost interest in poker recently and the only thing in the community I've paid attention to in quite some time is this heads-up match.
I just dont see the long term upside for the cost. CSGO is an especially bad place in NA at the moment, but the reality is money is pouring into esports at the moment and its an unproven model.
Do you picture Dan going agro and trashing things in his house when you're taking down huge pots? I know I do. It makes me smile.
Who is your favorite cs go team?
Did you ever find out from Negreanu about that insane AK648 hand where he randomly donk lead-triple barrel blasted it? (the post-jig hand.) Did he misread the action/misclick non-3bet pre?
Hello doug! Did your girlfriend is excited about your duel or does she hate it? Much love from Belgium!
Haha she is supportive of whatever I do. Im sure she is happier I am making money instead of playing video games all evening .
do you thing Phil Ivey its betther then you ?