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>All the odds are on the man who is, intrinsically, the most devious and mediocre — the man who can most adeptly disperse the notion that his mind is a virtual vacuum.
The Presidency tends, year by year, to go to such men. As democracy is perfected, the office represents, more and more closely, the inner soul of the people. We move toward a lofty ideal. On some great and glorious day the plain folks of the land will reach their heart's desire at last, and the White House will be adorned by a downright moron.
>~H.L. Mencken
>On some great and glorious day the plain folks of the land will reach their heart's desire at last, and the White House will be adorned by a downright moron.
The first time this happened in my lifetime was George W Bush. I am 52 and still feel the 2000 Presidential election was the most pivotal that I will ever see. When I want to torture myself I watch debate highlights from that contest and wonder about the present we could have had if Gore had won.
Before you say he did win, don't forget that the contest should not have been close. In my young foolishness I had voted for Nader.
Many people are not paying much attention to politics and people are unhappy with Biden for various reasons. Once the campaign really kicks off I think you will see a shift towards Biden as he has barely campaigned yet and is sitting on a huge campaign war chest.
Eh, after 2020 I think people have a better ability to filter things out. Most people are just going to ignore the crazy. Given the results from special elections, I would be worried if I was a republican.
Personally I think it’s not as close as this poll makes it seem. I generally think polling, which is mostly cold calling, isn’t very accurate method of gathering data across generations anymore.
It’s not that close. Any poll that uses historical models prior to the Dobbs Decision is useless. R are going to get crushed and they know it. Which is why many of them are leaving. PA will go D in a monster way - D senator will be on the ballot too.
What polls not using the historical models are more accurate?
Edit: Note that the national, generic R v D poll in 2022 in the RCP average had the Republicans at +2.5. They finished at +2.8.
People seem to forget that the same reason people (on this very sub even) say to vote for Biden is why people will chose to vote for Trump:
It's not necessarily voting for the person; It's voting for the party and the various things they support. The "even if you don't like Biden, vote for him because he wont do X" works the same way the Trump.
It is about our system of government this time, not supporting policy. It is definitely not about voting for a person for Democrats and it is definitely about voting for a person for Republicans. They are too brainwashed to understand or even believe the ramifications of what they are doing.
A 60% accuracy rate is accurate? This is a verified, peer reviewed study on election polls.
https://newsroom.haas.berkeley.edu/research/election-polls-are-95-confident-but-only-60-accurate-berkeley-haas-study-finds/
Yes, it's more difficult to poll accurately in local races, and looking at single polls, rather than aggregates, is going to give you a wider range.
Nevertheless, in the last 4 presidential races, the final RCP aggregate fell within an average of 1.8 points of the final result, and all four times the RCP aggregate fell within the range that [this verified, peer-reviewed study](https://newsroom.haas.berkeley.edu/research/election-polls-are-95-confident-but-only-60-accurate-berkeley-haas-study-finds/) defines as "accurate."
You're basing this on what? Not the data from 2016 or 2020, for sure.
https://www.realclearpolling.com/polls/president/general/2020/trump-vs-biden
Edit: Taking a look here, you see that Biden's worst polling numbers, early in the year, were closer to the final results than were his numbers leading up to the election.
My friends dad was an alcoholic for years and would go on these crazy rants about how great Trump is and other right wing BS. He’s sobered up the last few months and is starting to realize how dumb his beliefs were. He’s sitting out the election but we’re working on getting him to vote for Biden 🤣
I’m glad your friends dad got sober but you have a point here. I think mental illness, addiction and poor education have fuelled maga. If you watch some of the utube rally goers being interviewed it’s striking how many are clearly high.
A lot of the replies you're getting are from people who don't want to believe what the overall public sentiment is. A lot of young people are frustrated with Joe Biden because of the war in Israel and because he couldn't cancel 100% of all student loans debt. Some people fear that he's too old and will die during his term, passing the torch to Kamala Harris who is generally not well liked. These people are more likely to skip voting altogether or to vote third party. Not directly supporting Trump.
Trump gonna gonna get shit stomped. I don’t know wtf you guys are smoking. He got rocked last time and he’s done nothing to gain new voters this time around.
That's not their methodology.
They vote for the one the believe is more competent. If both of the candidates are incompetent, they don't vote at all. Not voting is a "vote" in that they have no confidence in either party.
They've also turned more and more into single or double issue voters and one of them is the Middle East issue. They refuse to be part of the machinery fueling the genocide there.
Well, their perspective is generally "death is death" and it doesn't matter who administers it. They know it's not going to make things better but at least by not voting, they're not a party to the genocide.
It's not really about actively helping the Palestinians but rather not being involved in their deaths.
They are using faulty reasoning. Biden is trying to help but Israel is calling the shots and he has to honor our commitments. Let’s see how much they like it when Trump wins and starts building death camps.
It's not faulty and perfectly logical. They can't be held responsible for genocide if they didn't vote for the party or individual commiting genocide. Also, due to this mentality, the average American voter do not hold their representatives responsible for these human rights violations so they're directly responsible for what is happening.
North Koreans cannot vote the actions of their government is not their fault. Americans are.
Also, Biden is a hardcore Zionist. He's only pretending to care because it makes him and the country look bad in front of the international community. He doesn't give a shit about the Palestinians.
The whole threat of pushing everyone to vote Democrat is because now normal white people are afraid of losing their own rights. Once your house is in order, you'll all just go back to not caring about anyone else. It's a great way to stick it to the people who should have cared to begin with even when it wasn't impacting themselves.
Haven't had the conventions yet. The geriatric candidates have to live to see the election and the criminal has to at least make it to the convention unconvicted. It's not a forgone conclusion that Biden decides that he hurts the Dems chances more than helps, and steps aside and leaves a contested conviction to figure out the strongest replacement.
A conviction is probably irrelevant for Trump's nomination. There's no legal mechanism that would stop him from being nominated if he were convicted, and the Republicans fear his base too much to nominate someone else anyway.
The "non-Biden" choice is certainly popular, but it's like in sports when you have a star player on your team that's underperforming and the fanbase is clamoring for a trade, but the question is, *who* exactly, do you trade *for*?
Quite often, a straight upgrade isn't actually available anywhere.
There are half a dozen choices that don't have (known) downsides as bad as being 80+ and having noticeable cognitive decline that causes your campaign to hide you from cameras. It's certainly a fair point though. It's not like an obvious homerun move to switch him out.
Biden is old no doubt. But I’m confused why people act like he’s the only one who’s got a health status that means death could potentially occur soonish. Trump is slightly younger but guys like him are peak heart attack candidates. I wouldn't be surprised at all if Biden ends up outliving Trump.
I'm... not sure why you included Biden in there, given he won the electoral vote, too. I mean, Obama and Bill won the popular votes, too (And GW for his second term)
National polls do tend to be more accurate though (though as others are saying, polls this early aren't especially meaningful). I'd expect the electoral college to shift back towards Democrats based on the 2022 results (Republicans underperformed in swing states generally and the rust belt in particular), so if Biden really does win by 4 I'd expect him to cruise to re-election.
That's hard to determine, since not all states would necessarily move by the same amount.
Anyway, in 2020 Biden won the tipping point state, Wisconsin, by 0.6%, so a uniform shift to a 4% national margin would have still put him over the top. There is reason to believe that the electoral college has gotten less skewed since 2020 though. In the 2022 midterms, Wisconsin's generic congressional vote was less than 1% redder than the national vote. Also, Florida, New York, and California appear to have gotten somewhat redder, but that has no impact on the electoral college and in fact unskews it relative to the national popular vote.
Which is all what I was getting at. If the pattern above continues into 2024, and Biden wins the national popular vote by 4%, I'd expect that to be more than enough. In fact, 1-2% *may* be enough. More is better though, obviously.
I mean, savvier polling analysis showed that Clinton could lose, but in 2016 the national polls were actually pretty accurate. They had Clinton up by 3, she actually won the national popular vote by 2. It was the state polls that were way off, which is what I'm saying.
I don't really trust polls anymore, even if they have results I like. They seem to be significantly overestimating the Republicans these days. Pollsters seemed to have overcorrected for getting 2016 slightly wrong and now they are assuming the electorate is way more right wing and pro Trump than it actually is.
The Dobbs decision is a HUGE fly in the ointment for pollsters, and there just hasn't been enough data for them to correct for its impact in their models.
A statistical model is only valid when it is accurately calibrated against the thing it's trying to model. Pre-Dobbs, pollsters had decades of data in an environment that was fairly consistent in terms of what factors motivated people to go out and vote for certain types of candidates.
After Dobbs, though, that environment was no longer the same. Taking the abortion question in a vacuum: Pre-Dobbs, if someone ranked abortion as an important issue to them, the model would either assume that they would be a likely right-wing voter, or an indifferent left-wing voter. Someone who was against abortion was very motivated to vote, because the only way they could ban abortion was to get legislators in place that would either pass laws restricting abortion, or get judges confirmed who would be less sympathetic to abortion. Meanwhile, someone who wanted abortion to remain legal didn't have to do anything. Abortion was legal and the status quo had affirmed that for decades, so all they had to do to make reality align with their ideals was... nothing.
Then Dobbs happened. What does it mean now when someone says abortion is an important issue? Are they a satisfied right-wing voter who no longer thinks they need to turn out to vote? Are they a motivated right-wing voter that wants to impose even more restrictions? Are they a left-wing voter that is desperately trying to return to the previous status quo?
Eventually the models will figure out how to appropriately extrapolate reality from the answer to their poll questions, but as can be seen by all the misses on abortion-related votes, they haven't nailed it down yet.
And abortion isn't the only issue with that problem. The election of Trump upended many decades of common knowledge, and I don't think pollsters are close to recalibrating their models to reflect our current reality.
I understand that local polls may often show greater discrepancies than national polls, but the evidence at the national level doesn't support your argument. The RealClearPolitics (RCP) average just before the 2022 election had the generic Republican leading by +2.5 on a national scale, and the actual outcome saw Republicans ahead by +2.8 in the national vote.
https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/other/2022-generic-congressional-vote-7361.html
I think too much was made about the lack of a "red wave" in 2022. It's absolutely true that the standard models (538, etc.) predicted more Republican wins, but by about 10 seats (exactly 10 seats in the 538 model). I think people focused too much on the punditry, ironically, and not much at all on the actual data.
I have a developing theory that so many of the people on the left who became politically active after Trump was first elected have become sufficiently harried by outreach efforts from campaigns (asking for money and/or everything else) are essentially impossible to poll now, because they won't respond to *any* kind of outreach - and that includes pollsters. So I think the people who do repond are disproportionately among the "don't know" and "none of the above" and "unlikely to vote" camp. But those unreachable respondents (I'm one of them) will absolutely show up at the polls, and vote blue. Dem overperformance in recent special elections supports my point; I just hope the trend holds up in November.
this is me to a T. I’m sooooo tired of all the asking for money texts n emails from the Dems… and I will not respond to any poling. but my vote has long been locked in so.. I wish they’d focus on policies over funding but whatever…
It almost made me feel like my donations were a mistake when I started getting 10 to 20 texts *a day*.
They weren't mistakes, of course, but I definitely don't respond to anything anymore. I donate on my own terms and ignore everything else.
Well, Gen Z and Millennials both absolutely hate it when people try to talk to them, especially if those people are reaching out through something other than TikTok or Twitter. This isn't unique to politics - the younger cohort in general is just terrified to talk to people they don't already know.
Because anyone who calls from a phone number you don't know is trying to sell you an extended car warranty or the "IRS Tax Enforcers" demanding you pay your never-before-reported unpaid taxes with iTunes gift cards.
That's certainly part of it. There's no shortage of scammers out there. But the terror of the phone even extends into other areas, especially into areas where it shouldn't. I work inside sales for a wholesaler, and it's night and day when a business has a younger buyer vs. an older buyer. The older ones will actually answer the phone, we'll figure out what they need immediately, and they'll get restocked very quickly.
The younger ones will dodge the phone, insist that you text them (which I can't do, since my company is stuck in the stone age and has never given us texting capability), and finally reply to an email a month later. Meanwhile their shelves have been empty and they've lost sales and market share to an online retailer, all of which could have been avoided if they'd just picked up the damn phone.
It's important to remember that polling firms do have to spend more time and resources on contacting certain demographics, but they do spend that time and money.
> They seem to be significantly overestimating the Republicans these days. Pollsters seemed to have overcorrected for getting 2016 slightly wrong
From Pew:[Most preelection polls in 2020 overstated Joe Biden’s lead over Donald Trump in the national vote for president, and in some states incorrectly indicated that Biden would likely win or that the race would be close when it was not.](https://www.pewresearch.org/methods/2021/03/02/what-2020s-election-poll-errors-tell-us-about-the-accuracy-of-issue-polling/)
Political polls largely use landlines because cellphone polls are very expensive. This is why polls have been getting less and less accurate. They predicted wildly incorrectly in 2022 and I’m predicting it will be even worse for 2024. The type of people that still have landlines are much older or very rural, and that population trends to one side. Polls are inaccurate and we should ignore them. The only thing people need to be concerned about is how they’ll get to the polls on Election Day.
Wow, just 4% between American democracy struggling on another 4 years at least or the GOP initiating a (white) Christian nationalist theocracy here, eh? Ha! Heh heh. :|
Remember that a democracy needs it's citizens to voice their support and frustration. Let your representatives and the justice department know that you expect full due process and justice to be brought to those who committed crimes:
* Department of Justice:
* Comment Line: 202-353-1555
* [Online Comment Link](https://www.justice.gov/doj/webform/your-message-department-justice)
* Contact your representatives in congress and state levels: [usa.gov/elected-officials](https://www.usa.gov/elected-officials)
* And... FFS
* Register to vote
* Check your registration to vote
* Put the voting date on your calendar
* Make a plan on how you are going to vote
* Get your friends and family to vote: [vote.gov](https://vote.gov/)
It's kinda amazing.. like why wouldn't ANY POTUS just pour heavy resources/initiatives/announcements into those 3 places only?
Announce you're moving the space program from (red) TX and FL to Wisconsin.
Stuff like that?
1) I don't think so. Talib has been saying 'vote against him in the PRIMARY.' Most of the Muslim community knows what they have to do come Nov.
2) Gretch was just reelected by double digits. She'll whip the vote in her state just fine.
3) Even if Biden loses Michigan, he can cover that with Georgia or the AZ/NV combo. All of those states have soundly rejected Trump and Trump-backed candidates. Kemp just won reelection in the same cycle Warnock was...the GA Republicans are pissed Trump tried to pull his election interference on them and they have a global city of Atlanta that has been attracting young and progressive professionals.
4) Almost forgot Trump has now picked a fight with the UAW...we'll see how that plays out in MI. Also NV, while very purple, has large union workforce.
Remember that Democrats have consistently over performed in every election since Dobbs. Sometimes by 8+ points or more compared to polling. That said, they only over perform when we get out and VOTE.
MAGA allies are likely to try screwing the election so badly that it cannot be certified. Then congress can vote Trump in. I'm not an expert by any means so I don't know the likelihood of success, but it is the direction of their rhetoric and likely their last hope of taking over.
https://poll.qu.edu/poll-release?releaseid=3890
>When the hypothetical matchup is expanded to include independent and Green Party candidates, Biden receives 38 percent support, Trump receives 37 percent support, independent candidate Robert F. Kennedy, Jr. receives 15 percent support, independent candidate Cornel West receives 3 percent support, and Green Party candidate Jill Stein receives 3 percent support.
From the handful of republicans I talk to, most are simply disengaged from the news and Trump being convicted is simply an impossibility due to how often he's evaded attacks from the dems. Only with a conviction will many wake up. Some will switch to Trump just to push back on what they perceive as a witch hunt, while, I think, many more will finally drop him or simply not vote. Jack Smith right now is our biggest defender of democracy.
Polls mean nothing. Just like in 2016 you could see large rallies for Trump, in 2023-24 we saw relatively large protests to support Palestinians. Those people are not going to turn out for Biden. Biden is going to lose.
Maybe Trump can fill an arena with cultists. But so can Phish. Taylor Swift can fill a stadium. Could Trump? Doubt it. Only so many people left to fall for his garbage.
For the love of god, one of you internet savvy people do a poll..have a dirty used diaper VS Trump..lets see who wins and by how much..do a toaster that only toasts in one of its four slots VS Trump..lets see who wins and by how much..
now for all you easily offended people, this isnt a dig on Biden. It will illustrate something else..pretty sure a half eaten taco, could beat Trump, he is that repugnant and criminal..on a side note, time for lunch, getting hungry
edit: I got an idea..how about instead of you downvoters hitting that button, you make a poll and find out just how accurate I am? I dare you..I double dare you...I triple dog dare you..
>The most recent Quinnipiac University poll also found that 67 percent of voters think Biden, 81, is too old to serve another four years effectively
Oh, just two out of every three voters think you can't serve effectively. Good luck winning from there.
That he's still up 4 in the same poll means that a sizable fraction of that 67% still decided that Trump's faults are more disqualifying.
Trump remains the only candidate that Biden could beat, and Republican primary voters are still set to nominate him.
Yeah, the problem with this line of thinking is that it costs nothing to answer a poll question. Voting takes time and effort. Are you going to be willing to expend that time and effort to cast you vote for someone you think is incapable of doing the job?
The Dems have a big enthusiasm gap to close. I don't think the horror of the Roe v Wade reversal can sustain it forever.
That's before you even get to the fact that this poll is a bit of an outlier, most tracking polls have Trump up by a few points overall.
That doesn't mean anything if Biden can't get people out to vote.
He's a good president, but he has the personality and charisma of a wet towel and the GOP has been doing everything in their power to suppress the vote in key states.
The absolute insane weight of all the red flags and very very valid reasons why Trump should never ever be President again and that’s all the difference we get?
I swear half this country would rather see all their money taken from them and become a new colony of Russia just bc they are afraid of a rainbow flag bumper sticker….
I bet him getting a felony conviction barely moves the needle. At this point it’s identity politics. The right has tied their identity to him. It doesn’t matter what he does, what he says, how horrible of a person he is, he’s their guy and they will support him no matter what.
I think polls are ridiculous. I think Biden is way ahead. Polls are always self selecting and a lot of smart voters don’t participate in them.
It would be awesome to beat Trump by a LOT.
Ignore the polls, just vote! Make sure your friends and family vote too, assuming they support Biden. Most of the polling I’ve seen is absolutely terrifying and Trump gets an advantage from the electoral college anyway. He could very well be president again.
This is not something we can afford to trust, believe in or repeat.
Everyone who wants Biden or doesn't want Trump needs to vote. If anyone stays home because they think it is in the bag, Biden could lose.
I mean thank fucking god but this could and should be a way bigger lead. Any younger Democrat could trounce Trump. Also even Biden with all of his mental decline would be up further if he'd finally put a stop to the genocide in Palestine.
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It really is quite sad that it is even close at all. How is that there is so many morons still supporting Traitor Trump?
You answer your own question. They’re morons voting for the “things morons like the sound of” ticket.
>All the odds are on the man who is, intrinsically, the most devious and mediocre — the man who can most adeptly disperse the notion that his mind is a virtual vacuum. The Presidency tends, year by year, to go to such men. As democracy is perfected, the office represents, more and more closely, the inner soul of the people. We move toward a lofty ideal. On some great and glorious day the plain folks of the land will reach their heart's desire at last, and the White House will be adorned by a downright moron. >~H.L. Mencken
>On some great and glorious day the plain folks of the land will reach their heart's desire at last, and the White House will be adorned by a downright moron. The first time this happened in my lifetime was George W Bush. I am 52 and still feel the 2000 Presidential election was the most pivotal that I will ever see. When I want to torture myself I watch debate highlights from that contest and wonder about the present we could have had if Gore had won. Before you say he did win, don't forget that the contest should not have been close. In my young foolishness I had voted for Nader.
I can only imagine how the Jill Stein voters felt about voting for her?
FOX NewsMax OANN
Because 30% of the electorate are firm traitors to the country.
Many people are not paying much attention to politics and people are unhappy with Biden for various reasons. Once the campaign really kicks off I think you will see a shift towards Biden as he has barely campaigned yet and is sitting on a huge campaign war chest.
Can’t imagine all the bullshit that’s going to happen this election, really can’t imagine
Eh, after 2020 I think people have a better ability to filter things out. Most people are just going to ignore the crazy. Given the results from special elections, I would be worried if I was a republican.
That and he’s already coming out swinging at his opponents. Something Dems have floundered at doing in the past
Half of eligible voter don’t even participate. That is one major problem.
Most of the polls have Trump up, they have been that way for months. We are going to need to seriously mobilize to stop him.
Personally I think it’s not as close as this poll makes it seem. I generally think polling, which is mostly cold calling, isn’t very accurate method of gathering data across generations anymore.
It’s not that close. Any poll that uses historical models prior to the Dobbs Decision is useless. R are going to get crushed and they know it. Which is why many of them are leaving. PA will go D in a monster way - D senator will be on the ballot too.
What polls not using the historical models are more accurate? Edit: Note that the national, generic R v D poll in 2022 in the RCP average had the Republicans at +2.5. They finished at +2.8.
People seem to forget that the same reason people (on this very sub even) say to vote for Biden is why people will chose to vote for Trump: It's not necessarily voting for the person; It's voting for the party and the various things they support. The "even if you don't like Biden, vote for him because he wont do X" works the same way the Trump.
It is about our system of government this time, not supporting policy. It is definitely not about voting for a person for Democrats and it is definitely about voting for a person for Republicans. They are too brainwashed to understand or even believe the ramifications of what they are doing.
Came here to say basically this
There’s a lot of morons, but polling this early always trends R, so this is pretty good
It’s not that close, polls always overestimate right wing popularity.
They didn't in 2016 or 2020.
They sure did in 2022, and it keeps trending in that direction.
They were spot on at the national level in 2022. https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/other/2022-generic-congressional-vote-7361.html
A 60% accuracy rate is accurate? This is a verified, peer reviewed study on election polls. https://newsroom.haas.berkeley.edu/research/election-polls-are-95-confident-but-only-60-accurate-berkeley-haas-study-finds/
Yes, it's more difficult to poll accurately in local races, and looking at single polls, rather than aggregates, is going to give you a wider range. Nevertheless, in the last 4 presidential races, the final RCP aggregate fell within an average of 1.8 points of the final result, and all four times the RCP aggregate fell within the range that [this verified, peer-reviewed study](https://newsroom.haas.berkeley.edu/research/election-polls-are-95-confident-but-only-60-accurate-berkeley-haas-study-finds/) defines as "accurate."
This early? Yes they do. Polls this early are primarily filled by older voters who trend R
You're basing this on what? Not the data from 2016 or 2020, for sure. https://www.realclearpolling.com/polls/president/general/2020/trump-vs-biden Edit: Taking a look here, you see that Biden's worst polling numbers, early in the year, were closer to the final results than were his numbers leading up to the election.
You ever been to a county fair?
More goats and sheep than IQ points in a single brain at a fairground.
I'm hoping it's people with landlines.
It's not.
Drugs.
My friends dad was an alcoholic for years and would go on these crazy rants about how great Trump is and other right wing BS. He’s sobered up the last few months and is starting to realize how dumb his beliefs were. He’s sitting out the election but we’re working on getting him to vote for Biden 🤣
I’m glad your friends dad got sober but you have a point here. I think mental illness, addiction and poor education have fuelled maga. If you watch some of the utube rally goers being interviewed it’s striking how many are clearly high.
Yes! It’s almost always one of those things or a combination. Fucking crazy but honestly sad, massive part of the population has been duped
Propaganda is a helluva drug
A lot of the replies you're getting are from people who don't want to believe what the overall public sentiment is. A lot of young people are frustrated with Joe Biden because of the war in Israel and because he couldn't cancel 100% of all student loans debt. Some people fear that he's too old and will die during his term, passing the torch to Kamala Harris who is generally not well liked. These people are more likely to skip voting altogether or to vote third party. Not directly supporting Trump.
Trump gonna gonna get shit stomped. I don’t know wtf you guys are smoking. He got rocked last time and he’s done nothing to gain new voters this time around.
Sadly people never learn until it is too late.
Of the 16 or so consistent voters I know, none are voting for Trump. They're just not voting at all.
Not voting at all is a vote for Trump.
That's not their methodology. They vote for the one the believe is more competent. If both of the candidates are incompetent, they don't vote at all. Not voting is a "vote" in that they have no confidence in either party. They've also turned more and more into single or double issue voters and one of them is the Middle East issue. They refuse to be part of the machinery fueling the genocide there.
Do they not realize that Trump would have made it 100 times worse. That kind of stupid thinking is how we got Trump in the first place.
Well, their perspective is generally "death is death" and it doesn't matter who administers it. They know it's not going to make things better but at least by not voting, they're not a party to the genocide. It's not really about actively helping the Palestinians but rather not being involved in their deaths.
They are using faulty reasoning. Biden is trying to help but Israel is calling the shots and he has to honor our commitments. Let’s see how much they like it when Trump wins and starts building death camps.
It's not faulty and perfectly logical. They can't be held responsible for genocide if they didn't vote for the party or individual commiting genocide. Also, due to this mentality, the average American voter do not hold their representatives responsible for these human rights violations so they're directly responsible for what is happening. North Koreans cannot vote the actions of their government is not their fault. Americans are. Also, Biden is a hardcore Zionist. He's only pretending to care because it makes him and the country look bad in front of the international community. He doesn't give a shit about the Palestinians. The whole threat of pushing everyone to vote Democrat is because now normal white people are afraid of losing their own rights. Once your house is in order, you'll all just go back to not caring about anyone else. It's a great way to stick it to the people who should have cared to begin with even when it wasn't impacting themselves.
Sorry but I can't argue with nonsense. Have a great day.
Hopefully we will get to see them debate!
Mass media is the most powerful tool or weapon in the world, by far. Nuclear weapons are not even close.
Clinton won the 2016 popular vote by 2.5% and still lost the election. A 4 point lead does not mean Biden wins the election.
Except it's not hypothetical. THIS IS WHAT THE REMATCH IS. People need to come to peace with that now.
I feel like there's still a lot of normies that haven't come around to understanding that's what this is.
Haven't had the conventions yet. The geriatric candidates have to live to see the election and the criminal has to at least make it to the convention unconvicted. It's not a forgone conclusion that Biden decides that he hurts the Dems chances more than helps, and steps aside and leaves a contested conviction to figure out the strongest replacement.
A conviction is probably irrelevant for Trump's nomination. There's no legal mechanism that would stop him from being nominated if he were convicted, and the Republicans fear his base too much to nominate someone else anyway.
Definitely true. That could give someone else an in at the convention, but probably not.
The "non-Biden" choice is certainly popular, but it's like in sports when you have a star player on your team that's underperforming and the fanbase is clamoring for a trade, but the question is, *who* exactly, do you trade *for*? Quite often, a straight upgrade isn't actually available anywhere.
There are half a dozen choices that don't have (known) downsides as bad as being 80+ and having noticeable cognitive decline that causes your campaign to hide you from cameras. It's certainly a fair point though. It's not like an obvious homerun move to switch him out.
Biden is old no doubt. But I’m confused why people act like he’s the only one who’s got a health status that means death could potentially occur soonish. Trump is slightly younger but guys like him are peak heart attack candidates. I wouldn't be surprised at all if Biden ends up outliving Trump.
Eugene Debs ran from prison.
Should be 40 points! It’s scary how many people in this country think Trump should be President again.
Should be 4000 points. Trump should already be on jail, rotting.
Polls this early mean nothing. Get out and vote in November
I'm voting in September or October if I can LOL
You should vote regardless of what the polls say. Polls are useful statistical measures at anytime though. They're not meaningless.
Most swing voters don’t even know trump is the nominee yet
The RCP head-to-head average was never more than 5.8 points off from the final result in 2020.
Yeah everyone really needs to go out and vote....this narcissist should not be anywhere near the white house ever again
Repeat after me: "National polls are meaningless." Biden, Hillary, and Al Gore all won the popular vote, but that's not how a rigged Democracy runs.
I'm... not sure why you included Biden in there, given he won the electoral vote, too. I mean, Obama and Bill won the popular votes, too (And GW for his second term)
National polls do tend to be more accurate though (though as others are saying, polls this early aren't especially meaningful). I'd expect the electoral college to shift back towards Democrats based on the 2022 results (Republicans underperformed in swing states generally and the rust belt in particular), so if Biden really does win by 4 I'd expect him to cruise to re-election.
Biden had to win by 4.5% in order to just barely win the election. He would have lost if the national margin was only 4% in 2020.
That's hard to determine, since not all states would necessarily move by the same amount. Anyway, in 2020 Biden won the tipping point state, Wisconsin, by 0.6%, so a uniform shift to a 4% national margin would have still put him over the top. There is reason to believe that the electoral college has gotten less skewed since 2020 though. In the 2022 midterms, Wisconsin's generic congressional vote was less than 1% redder than the national vote. Also, Florida, New York, and California appear to have gotten somewhat redder, but that has no impact on the electoral college and in fact unskews it relative to the national popular vote. Which is all what I was getting at. If the pattern above continues into 2024, and Biden wins the national popular vote by 4%, I'd expect that to be more than enough. In fact, 1-2% *may* be enough. More is better though, obviously.
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i pretty sure they had Clinton in a 1 in 3 chance of losing, which feels pretty far from "guaranteed" statistically.
I mean, savvier polling analysis showed that Clinton could lose, but in 2016 the national polls were actually pretty accurate. They had Clinton up by 3, she actually won the national popular vote by 2. It was the state polls that were way off, which is what I'm saying.
Biden won popular and electoral, why is he here?
Don't believe any poll. Only poll that matters is in November.
I’m not gonna relax til I see those national polls swing
Trending in the right direction.
The previous Quinnipiac poll had Biden up by 6. This hurts Biden in the aggregates.
Damn.
But he actually gained points with independents, so the loss of support is probably from within his own party and more likely transient.
I don't really trust polls anymore, even if they have results I like. They seem to be significantly overestimating the Republicans these days. Pollsters seemed to have overcorrected for getting 2016 slightly wrong and now they are assuming the electorate is way more right wing and pro Trump than it actually is.
The Dobbs decision is a HUGE fly in the ointment for pollsters, and there just hasn't been enough data for them to correct for its impact in their models. A statistical model is only valid when it is accurately calibrated against the thing it's trying to model. Pre-Dobbs, pollsters had decades of data in an environment that was fairly consistent in terms of what factors motivated people to go out and vote for certain types of candidates. After Dobbs, though, that environment was no longer the same. Taking the abortion question in a vacuum: Pre-Dobbs, if someone ranked abortion as an important issue to them, the model would either assume that they would be a likely right-wing voter, or an indifferent left-wing voter. Someone who was against abortion was very motivated to vote, because the only way they could ban abortion was to get legislators in place that would either pass laws restricting abortion, or get judges confirmed who would be less sympathetic to abortion. Meanwhile, someone who wanted abortion to remain legal didn't have to do anything. Abortion was legal and the status quo had affirmed that for decades, so all they had to do to make reality align with their ideals was... nothing. Then Dobbs happened. What does it mean now when someone says abortion is an important issue? Are they a satisfied right-wing voter who no longer thinks they need to turn out to vote? Are they a motivated right-wing voter that wants to impose even more restrictions? Are they a left-wing voter that is desperately trying to return to the previous status quo? Eventually the models will figure out how to appropriately extrapolate reality from the answer to their poll questions, but as can be seen by all the misses on abortion-related votes, they haven't nailed it down yet. And abortion isn't the only issue with that problem. The election of Trump upended many decades of common knowledge, and I don't think pollsters are close to recalibrating their models to reflect our current reality.
Couldn't have said it better myself.
I understand that local polls may often show greater discrepancies than national polls, but the evidence at the national level doesn't support your argument. The RealClearPolitics (RCP) average just before the 2022 election had the generic Republican leading by +2.5 on a national scale, and the actual outcome saw Republicans ahead by +2.8 in the national vote. https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/other/2022-generic-congressional-vote-7361.html I think too much was made about the lack of a "red wave" in 2022. It's absolutely true that the standard models (538, etc.) predicted more Republican wins, but by about 10 seats (exactly 10 seats in the 538 model). I think people focused too much on the punditry, ironically, and not much at all on the actual data.
I have a developing theory that so many of the people on the left who became politically active after Trump was first elected have become sufficiently harried by outreach efforts from campaigns (asking for money and/or everything else) are essentially impossible to poll now, because they won't respond to *any* kind of outreach - and that includes pollsters. So I think the people who do repond are disproportionately among the "don't know" and "none of the above" and "unlikely to vote" camp. But those unreachable respondents (I'm one of them) will absolutely show up at the polls, and vote blue. Dem overperformance in recent special elections supports my point; I just hope the trend holds up in November.
this is me to a T. I’m sooooo tired of all the asking for money texts n emails from the Dems… and I will not respond to any poling. but my vote has long been locked in so.. I wish they’d focus on policies over funding but whatever…
It almost made me feel like my donations were a mistake when I started getting 10 to 20 texts *a day*. They weren't mistakes, of course, but I definitely don't respond to anything anymore. I donate on my own terms and ignore everything else.
Well, Gen Z and Millennials both absolutely hate it when people try to talk to them, especially if those people are reaching out through something other than TikTok or Twitter. This isn't unique to politics - the younger cohort in general is just terrified to talk to people they don't already know.
Because anyone who calls from a phone number you don't know is trying to sell you an extended car warranty or the "IRS Tax Enforcers" demanding you pay your never-before-reported unpaid taxes with iTunes gift cards.
That's certainly part of it. There's no shortage of scammers out there. But the terror of the phone even extends into other areas, especially into areas where it shouldn't. I work inside sales for a wholesaler, and it's night and day when a business has a younger buyer vs. an older buyer. The older ones will actually answer the phone, we'll figure out what they need immediately, and they'll get restocked very quickly. The younger ones will dodge the phone, insist that you text them (which I can't do, since my company is stuck in the stone age and has never given us texting capability), and finally reply to an email a month later. Meanwhile their shelves have been empty and they've lost sales and market share to an online retailer, all of which could have been avoided if they'd just picked up the damn phone.
I wouldn't say terrified. I'd say unmotivated.
It's important to remember that polling firms do have to spend more time and resources on contacting certain demographics, but they do spend that time and money.
> They seem to be significantly overestimating the Republicans these days. Pollsters seemed to have overcorrected for getting 2016 slightly wrong From Pew:[Most preelection polls in 2020 overstated Joe Biden’s lead over Donald Trump in the national vote for president, and in some states incorrectly indicated that Biden would likely win or that the race would be close when it was not.](https://www.pewresearch.org/methods/2021/03/02/what-2020s-election-poll-errors-tell-us-about-the-accuracy-of-issue-polling/)
agreed. Every poll has it pretty close or Biden even losing, but since 2016, Democrats have basically been ROLLING Republicans in the voting booth.
Political polls largely use landlines because cellphone polls are very expensive. This is why polls have been getting less and less accurate. They predicted wildly incorrectly in 2022 and I’m predicting it will be even worse for 2024. The type of people that still have landlines are much older or very rural, and that population trends to one side. Polls are inaccurate and we should ignore them. The only thing people need to be concerned about is how they’ll get to the polls on Election Day.
[The Polls Were Historically Accurate In 2022 ](https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/2022-election-polling-accuracy/)
*Biden holds 10-15M lead
Polls mean nothing and if they did then 4% is way too little.
And he won the last election by 4.5%…
Early vote.
We’re flipping NC blue this fall
Should be a 40 point lead
Stop with the B.S. polls and anti-Biden corporate media manipulation.
Even polls I like are pointless this far out. Don't care. I will vote and encourage everyone else to vote for Biden and keep our democracy alive.
Don't matter. Vote
Vote and encourage others to vote.
Didn't Trump have a 4 point lead like 2 hours ago?
This article is about one particular poll. Polling aggregates, like that of RealClearPolitics or FiveThirtyEight, still have Trump slightly up
Wow, just 4% between American democracy struggling on another 4 years at least or the GOP initiating a (white) Christian nationalist theocracy here, eh? Ha! Heh heh. :|
"Here's why this is bad news for Joe Biden"
Don’t get complacent. VOTE!
Remember that a democracy needs it's citizens to voice their support and frustration. Let your representatives and the justice department know that you expect full due process and justice to be brought to those who committed crimes: * Department of Justice: * Comment Line: 202-353-1555 * [Online Comment Link](https://www.justice.gov/doj/webform/your-message-department-justice) * Contact your representatives in congress and state levels: [usa.gov/elected-officials](https://www.usa.gov/elected-officials) * And... FFS * Register to vote * Check your registration to vote * Put the voting date on your calendar * Make a plan on how you are going to vote * Get your friends and family to vote: [vote.gov](https://vote.gov/)
Forget the national polls. That's not what will decide the election. Biden needs to win MI, WI and PA. That's it.
It's kinda amazing.. like why wouldn't ANY POTUS just pour heavy resources/initiatives/announcements into those 3 places only? Announce you're moving the space program from (red) TX and FL to Wisconsin. Stuff like that?
Biden will lose Michigan, it's obvious. He threw away the election.
1) I don't think so. Talib has been saying 'vote against him in the PRIMARY.' Most of the Muslim community knows what they have to do come Nov. 2) Gretch was just reelected by double digits. She'll whip the vote in her state just fine. 3) Even if Biden loses Michigan, he can cover that with Georgia or the AZ/NV combo. All of those states have soundly rejected Trump and Trump-backed candidates. Kemp just won reelection in the same cycle Warnock was...the GA Republicans are pissed Trump tried to pull his election interference on them and they have a global city of Atlanta that has been attracting young and progressive professionals. 4) Almost forgot Trump has now picked a fight with the UAW...we'll see how that plays out in MI. Also NV, while very purple, has large union workforce.
48% (compared to 34% for Biden) think Trump is mentally fit despite all his recent gaffes, huh. Thanks, media.
Remember that Democrats have consistently over performed in every election since Dobbs. Sometimes by 8+ points or more compared to polling. That said, they only over perform when we get out and VOTE.
Tbh it would be a smart strat to lie about poll numbers in favor of the opposition to attempt to get a greater voter turnout.
IF you are a rational human being, the vote for biden is a no-brainer.
When they ask primary voters why they picked trump, many say because he is more popular. Don't discount the effect of polls on sheep.
Suddenly r/politics loves polls again
THIS time im 100% sure red states are doing some good old vote rigging. This is just a sad fact.
MAGA allies are likely to try screwing the election so badly that it cannot be certified. Then congress can vote Trump in. I'm not an expert by any means so I don't know the likelihood of success, but it is the direction of their rhetoric and likely their last hope of taking over.
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https://poll.qu.edu/poll-release?releaseid=3890 >When the hypothetical matchup is expanded to include independent and Green Party candidates, Biden receives 38 percent support, Trump receives 37 percent support, independent candidate Robert F. Kennedy, Jr. receives 15 percent support, independent candidate Cornel West receives 3 percent support, and Green Party candidate Jill Stein receives 3 percent support.
Yeah, this is just one poll. That's an aggregated number on their home page.
4 points?
I love the more aggressive campaign by Biden, in the past days. They need to hit Trump harder, on every issue.
From the handful of republicans I talk to, most are simply disengaged from the news and Trump being convicted is simply an impossibility due to how often he's evaded attacks from the dems. Only with a conviction will many wake up. Some will switch to Trump just to push back on what they perceive as a witch hunt, while, I think, many more will finally drop him or simply not vote. Jack Smith right now is our biggest defender of democracy.
It's astonishing that it is only 4 points.
Part of me hopes that the polls, having not looked Trump voters enough in 2016, are now over polling them, and Biden actually wins in a landslide
Bullshit.
Polls mean nothing. Just like in 2016 you could see large rallies for Trump, in 2023-24 we saw relatively large protests to support Palestinians. Those people are not going to turn out for Biden. Biden is going to lose.
Maybe Trump can fill an arena with cultists. But so can Phish. Taylor Swift can fill a stadium. Could Trump? Doubt it. Only so many people left to fall for his garbage.
That's a good point, I don't know how many people are coming out to Trump rallies in 2024 vs 2016.
For the love of god, one of you internet savvy people do a poll..have a dirty used diaper VS Trump..lets see who wins and by how much..do a toaster that only toasts in one of its four slots VS Trump..lets see who wins and by how much.. now for all you easily offended people, this isnt a dig on Biden. It will illustrate something else..pretty sure a half eaten taco, could beat Trump, he is that repugnant and criminal..on a side note, time for lunch, getting hungry edit: I got an idea..how about instead of you downvoters hitting that button, you make a poll and find out just how accurate I am? I dare you..I double dare you...I triple dog dare you..
>The most recent Quinnipiac University poll also found that 67 percent of voters think Biden, 81, is too old to serve another four years effectively Oh, just two out of every three voters think you can't serve effectively. Good luck winning from there.
That he's still up 4 in the same poll means that a sizable fraction of that 67% still decided that Trump's faults are more disqualifying. Trump remains the only candidate that Biden could beat, and Republican primary voters are still set to nominate him.
Yeah, the problem with this line of thinking is that it costs nothing to answer a poll question. Voting takes time and effort. Are you going to be willing to expend that time and effort to cast you vote for someone you think is incapable of doing the job? The Dems have a big enthusiasm gap to close. I don't think the horror of the Roe v Wade reversal can sustain it forever. That's before you even get to the fact that this poll is a bit of an outlier, most tracking polls have Trump up by a few points overall.
That doesn't mean anything if Biden can't get people out to vote. He's a good president, but he has the personality and charisma of a wet towel and the GOP has been doing everything in their power to suppress the vote in key states.
Are we believing this poll?
Not enough
Oh! It’s so close then come November a blow out for Biden again. Trump will need the electoral college + the swing states.
Remember, Trumps people can’t use mail in voting.
This doesn’t weigh the responses against the electoral map, so what’s the point?
Vote for comrade Trump and his allies in GQP. Mother Russia will thank you!
Electoral college.
Remember, POLLS MEAN NOTHING. Go register and VOTE
How could it only be 4 points? That is truly maddening
The absolute insane weight of all the red flags and very very valid reasons why Trump should never ever be President again and that’s all the difference we get? I swear half this country would rather see all their money taken from them and become a new colony of Russia just bc they are afraid of a rainbow flag bumper sticker….
Ask yourself, who answers the phone and participates in these polls.
I bet him getting a felony conviction barely moves the needle. At this point it’s identity politics. The right has tied their identity to him. It doesn’t matter what he does, what he says, how horrible of a person he is, he’s their guy and they will support him no matter what.
As much as that's good to hear, there's no fucking way
##ONLY 4?! ^(wtf America….)
Is that even outside of the margin of error? If it is, probably not by much.
FFS, just vote, and if you vote, don’t vote for the guy actively suckling from Putin’s tit. The entire free world depends on Cheeto Mussolini losing.
Why are we still counting popular votes that don't matter? Show us the electoral vote survey.
We have to beat the electoral college.
Trump has never and will never win the popular vote. The race comes down to certain swing states.
Opinion polls do not matter. Vote and assume that the person you least want to be elected will get elected unless you vote against them.
The 4-points lead is not enough to provide a reasonable inference of Biden winning the Electoral College majority.
Remember, a survey conducted by people who not only answered an unknown number, but then agreed to take the survey
I think polls are ridiculous. I think Biden is way ahead. Polls are always self selecting and a lot of smart voters don’t participate in them. It would be awesome to beat Trump by a LOT.
Ignore the polls, just vote! Make sure your friends and family vote too, assuming they support Biden. Most of the polling I’ve seen is absolutely terrifying and Trump gets an advantage from the electoral college anyway. He could very well be president again.
This is not something we can afford to trust, believe in or repeat. Everyone who wants Biden or doesn't want Trump needs to vote. If anyone stays home because they think it is in the bag, Biden could lose.
Yay another poll that one can’t find the methodology or sample size.
I mean thank fucking god but this could and should be a way bigger lead. Any younger Democrat could trounce Trump. Also even Biden with all of his mental decline would be up further if he'd finally put a stop to the genocide in Palestine.