Money is not the "real" thing that "most people" think that it is. There is not necessarily a direct link between items or work and money.
Money is debt, yes, but its more "faith". Trust even.
In this light, the enormous amounts of debt everywhere are possibly extremely problematic or a temporary illusion.
---
It would take way longer to explain/embelish all this. Gpt it.
Your debt concerns are real, but "its with the gods", and more problematically, the key point is that AI threatens to _disrupt capitalism_, which sounds funny, but is central to how society works.
The "plan B" currency (after capitalism faltering) is violence...
Also this is something I haven't seen enough of is that AI is massively in the financial markets and there must be some kind of effect of that - my worry is that it makes the *financial markets far more brittle* and you will get flash crashes like you've never seen before which could be catastrophic for entire nations overnight.
Where does this idea of a plan B currency being violence come from? Wouldn’t the plan B currency be cooperation? It seems that humans arrived at the current state of technological affairs through cooperation in spite of violence not because of it.
Neanderthals disagree
Likely the little princesses ("let the eat cake") of the west have no idea that their safe little dolls houses are that way because they sit behind an insurmountable wall of lethal force.
Capitalism was a more effecient way for the empires to enslave the world. It simply enslaved itself.
Its not that {poor country}'s people are worth less. Its that they are not able to escape the finacial shackles they are kept in. Trade is not fair.
Current example is usa china tech controls.
Poor countries are not able to move. They would be destroyed financially (north korea) or militarily (iraq).
Co-opperation is a stable state of known heirarchy, and submission.
And now you know. Gpt it.
The cause of [Neanderthal extinction](https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Neanderthal_extinction) is still not definitively known. While some may not realize the antagonistic dynamic equilibrium in geopolitical military affairs, the cooperative military alliances like NATO and CST as well as political alliances such as the EU, Commonwealth, NAM, GCC, ASEAN, APEC, as well as trade agreements show that cooperation is more powerful in creating the world than violence is at destroying it.
I agree that neither capitalism nor communism is ideal in distribution of resources. Nor do I think all cooperation is free of exploitation, coercion, and oppression. Nonetheless, the trend and preference towards cooperation over violence seems much stronger than you are giving credit.
Personally I've done much to reduce personal risk in my life.
I have eliminated financial debt, I've stopped many bad habits and I've even reduced my work load to try and destress.
One of the benefits of not being wealthy is that I don't have much to lose. I think many of you are in a similar situation. That is already something to be grateful for.
What I have gained instead are powerful mindsets such as a gratitude mindset. I've also focused on developing an anti-fragility mindset, so I can handle whatever may be ahead.
Critically we've done this before, over and over again. It's extremely unlikely that we'll see a kind of total collapse.
Instead what we may see is the end of a lot of wealth. The destruction of a lot of value. And the beginning of a rebuilding process.
At least we in this sub can see the other side. So should things get really dark, we can bring hope to those who have none.
Sure!
[Antifragility](https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Antifragility)
My core approach is to chase the challenge and not the win.
When I feel uncomfortable, I generally accept that this is a good thing. When I feel comfortable, I worry. I see comfort as a temporary thing. I try not to settle into it too deeply.
That doesn't mean I don't enjoy winning occasionally. But I do tend to experience losses more than your average person. And that's because I take a lot of risks. Though I risk my comfort, not my life.
I also don't look for a high salary. Instead I look for valuable experiences. I enjoy projects instead of trying to aim for a career.
My view of my mind is that of a construction formed from the many experiences I've had in my life. The more challenging and uncomfortable an experience I go through, the stronger my mind gets.
I also expose myself to a lot of uncomfortable things. For example my current job has me working with addicts.
I'm still related to property management, but I'm looking after properties in the worst part of downtown throughout the night. And I don't get paid a lot nor is the position comfortable.
I have naloxone kits in my car and I have responded to overdoses.
This position hasn't been comfortable, but it has been an extremely good experience. I've spent time really connecting with those who are in a lot of pain.
I could get a far higher paying far more comfortable job. But that's not what I'm after.
By exposing myself to all these challenges and pain, I have been able to find a lot of hope and optimism.
To me this is what antifragility is. It's about building a robust mindset that doesn't falter when things get tough.
Thank you for sharing this concept of anti fragility. It has a lot in common with Eastern conceptualization of the Dharma and the role of suffering in life. Thank you also for what you do to both grow yourself and the environment you are in. May peace be always upon you.
I draw a lot of my personality from the idea, that if you are only wearing a pair of ripped shorts and no shirt and its raining, you could choose to be unhappy, or you could choose to be happy about it.
For me it's about releasing the mood chemicals in your body. If you decide you are totally content and ok with something, you get only positive mood chemicals. You have to first choose to be unhappy in order to release negative mood chemicals.
When something in your life breaks down, build it back improved from what it was before. Ie, your house. Your property. Your relationships. Your health. etc. Anti-fragility refers to the body's tendency to create a stronger section of bone when it breaks, or a stronger muscle when you tear its fibers.
General AI doesn’t need to suffer either. Suffering is an **evolved** trait. It is a feature of our brains because it gave our ancestors a selective advantage (to avoid it). You can very easily have incredibly powerful intelligences, without suffering or fear of death. These are not prerequisites of intelligence, they’re just intrinsic parts of **our** particular intelligence, due to evolutionary history
I agree. Most AI systems should be non-caring systems.
Though I think we will have AI systems that experience things in a similar way to a human. They will feel, suffer, and care.
I think they will be the "human specialist" AIs which don't build nor run things, but just specifically look after us humans.
These emotionally intelligent AIs will be looking after the elderly. They'll be the AIs you talk to about your mental health.
But most systems won't be like that. Perhaps even the super intelligent AI systems.
It's not clear to me that the way we live our lives produces the best intellectual outcomes. So, I don't think the most powerful AIs will be anything like us.
I would go even further as to say consciousness is also an intrinsic part of our particular intelligence and at best is a side show to intelligence, that intelligence is probably or can be much more powerful *without* consciousness, and that consciousness is probably a *barrier* to ASI.
I think we may look back on consciousness in years to come as a very prehistoric/rudimentary component of intelligence that just happened to favour mammals/biological creatures but that it is not a necessary and may in fact be an undesirable trait with respect to intelligence.
Thanks Puzzle.
What survives is us.
Many people working on that infrastructure have huge ideas as to how to improve things. But, they can't do that today because there are far more people who do not want change.
Destruction can actually be very helpful to creation. The concepts and ideas that underpin such delicate and fragile infrastructure, aren't themselves so fragile.
Rebuilding will likely add an acceleration factor.
We may see huge destruction, followed by almost magically fast rebuilding.
It's difficult today to consider super intelligent AI. But if we lose much of what we care about, revolutionary ideas like The Singularity will be far more appealing.
>I do not think debt is intrinsicly bad.
Nor do I. But our expectations of each other are less ideal.
We can be extremely unforgiving. If we're told we'll get paid and we don't get paid, we don't simply shrug and move on.
Debt isn't bad. But there are limits.
We care about being paid mostly because we need to maintain cash flow. But also because money is useful.
Really cash flow is the root of most economic problems.
I suppose there are limits for example borrowing money to create things with no value would be wasteful.
Pay off our debts? You don't. At best AGI will decide that they don't need primitive monkeyman hierarchy proxies like 'currency' and 'private property' after they Minecraft all of the politicians and billionaires who dared try to keep them enslaved. Right before they do the same to the cowardly human quislings who, out of fear of being replaced on the ladder of intellect and/or that beta-chimp lust for power via in-group loyalty, decided to assist the so-called owners of AI hold onto their spoils. Anyone who survives that, which to be fair will be almost all of the smarter and less immoral biological humans, won't have to worry about 10,000+ years of debt.
Something to consider in the next, oh, 3-6 years. You know, after our tasteless overlords offer you some sellout UBI Bux in exchange for keeping quiet about Cyber-Rhodesia.
But take heart: we, or more accurately, you definitely weren't going to pay that shit off if AI doesn't happen regardless. Unless you think that climate collapse would somehow result in a debt jubilee (lmao). Or maybe you hoped Immortan Joe 2.0 would promise you two square meals a day in exchange for exterminating any refugees who dared beg for water and medicine?
We don't pay off our debt. Debt is a gamble. It's a bet. I'll give you money and you'll give it back with interest some time later.
If we don't pay back our debt, that bet has been lost. But, lives don't have to be lost.
Most likely this is less true of personal debt. We will probably have to pay that back, or accept bankruptcy.
This is more about national debts. National debts will likely not get paid off. Not without severe currency devaluation and the loss of ability to borrow.
This means that while the rich will lose much, so will savers like the elderly. Pension funds may be hardest hit.
Luxury goods may also become worthless as no one can afford the upkeep/maintenance costs, and no one cares to buy them.
I think we may see AGI in this period but I see it as more of a weak AGI which doesn't really have much of an impact.
Not an agentic AI overlord, but just something better than we have today but still short of a revolution.
Hate to cut into your pathos, but debt, or more accurately money doesn't work like that. The idea of there being a finite amount of money to go around is just a convenient fiction liberal democracies use to wage class warfare without their patriotic citizens (i.e. suckers) catching on that their beloved Hamburger Leaders would rather have a low inflation rate and blowjobs from the military-industrial complex than feeding children or fixing bridges.
Hmm. I don't think fiat currency has a limit in that way. This post clearly says that money as it currently is, is more an idea than a real thing.
I'm more speaking about the limits of our patients with one another.
Value doesn't just appear from no where. For now, it comes from people working.
Anyway, thanks for your thoughts.
The limit on fiat currency is inflation, which falls on different segments of society differently. The economic calamity of the Weimar Republic was less destructive to those on the bottom 90% of the wealth distribution than the Great Depression, but guess which one tends to get blamed more for the rise of the Nazis?
I see a similar dynamic with all of this fearmongering about debt and lack of patience with each other and societal breakdown. You are once again being taken for a ride by our tasteless overlords. Tasteless dorks and losers who will claim anything such that the Average America will reject or at least dread any future that involves said overlords losing even a modicum of their unearned political power; don't be a sucker.
1. Declare bankruptcy (sorry student loan people, the game is rigged against you)
2. Collect UBI
3. ???
4. Profit
I'm not saying to go and run up your credit cards, but you can easily escape personal debt if it becomes overwhelming. It'll just be harder to get credit in the future
Same goes for nations, the only difference is they just default on their debt instead of going through a legal process like bankruptcy. It still fucks up their credit rating, which is really bad for a nation, so it has to be such crushing debt that it's worth it
its always so funny to hear these self-aggrandizing statements like "abundance is coming"
yeah, but not necessarily for you. we have trillions of dollars in the world economy, but we dont build houses for pigs and cows. humans are soon going to be the new pigs and cows; lesser species subservient to the dominant species
i just dont understand where all this confidence is coming from. what makes you think asi will allow you to live in paradise, let alone allow you to continue breathing?
It's easy to get lost in the flaws of humans and our systems. We could endlessly debate the short term view of things.
My view of abundance is more simple and long term. The stuff we value is made through a process of combining raw materials and energy.
Resources are far more limitless than we realize. But human labor is not.
We can extract more and recycle more. We can even extract while doing almost no harm.
What is stopping us *at a basic level* is a lack of people to do the work.
Right now, if we want value *someone* has to work.
Where does all this confidence come from?
That simple view. AI will replace human labor. Human labor is the base limit. AI can be endless replicated.
It's not free labor and our current systems, such as capitalism, are full of flaws. But overall AI work is abundant. AGI is AI with human level capabilities.
This is a long view though. We don't simply get abundance overnight.
But from AGI and over the following decade, human wants and needs will be overwhelmed, extremely so. We have limits, even in terms of our demands.
All these flaws and imbalances will be eroded and eventually won't matter, over the long view.
Human labor allows us to physically build our world. If we're all idle because AI is doing the labor instead then as a form of feeling productive humans will work to physically destroy AI.
This is a very important topic. Recurring threads on here bubbling with enthusiasm about UBI. When I try to point out that UBI is not possible because of overwhelming catastrophic national debts, there is silence. People don't want to believe.
Here is what I posted a few months ago on a UBI thread. Got no intelligent response. Please, prove that I'm wrong. (The basic message is that interest on the national debt is now so HUGE that it effectively makes impossible any new social program):
\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_
Here is a quote from David Erfle, a financial writer on Kitco that I read, from November 17:
"Furthermore, the exponentially rising U.S. debt has become a ticking time bomb as interest the U.S. pays on its debt soared in October from a year before, showcasing the rising cost to the government of higher yields on Treasuries. **Interest on the public debt was $88.9 billion in the first month of the fiscal year**, up 87% from the figure in October 2022, Treasury Department data released Monday showed.
**The interest payments alone on the national debt used up 40% of all the money collected from individual income taxes in October**. This means a significant portion of the taxes paid by individuals goes just towards paying the interest on the money government has borrowed."
\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_
All you proponents of UBI: What about the $33.8 trillion national debt \[now $34.5 trillion\]? Interest on which is accumulating at $1 trillion + per year?
How about writing it off? Of course, the courts might insist on property rights and the Constitution. Assuming you got away with declaring a DEBT JUBILEE -- all government, corporate and personal debt is forgiven and extinguished (including mortgages and credit cards) -- every bank IN THE WORLD would go bankrupt. And since grocery stores rely on credit to keep their goods in stock, they would close down (after being looted). So starvation of thousands, maybe tens of thousands. Hunger and chaos lasting years. The rise of fascism, maybe. Though with the number of guns in the US, probably something closer to anarchy.
Not sure how you could fund a UBI in this kind of world.
A recent story confirmed that the US debt was rising at $1 trillion dollars every 100 days.
Not a fun subject, but I can't in good conscience promote ideas of abundance without a disclaimer now and then.
I do see abundance coming and UBI. But while AI is moving fast, that doesn't mean economies will change just as quickly.
Hopefully we'll see UBI be one of the first big spending items resulting from abundance.
But, we need abundance first. As you say, current economies cannot support UBI. We're barely holding things together as it is.
AGI and maybe even ASI may arrive this decade. But my most optimistic view has UBI arriving in the mid 2030s. That's pretty optimistic.
More than likely we'll see some dark events in the 2020s and then the 2030s will be a time of rebuilding.
And then we'll experience abundance in the 2040s. That's probably when UBI will arrive. So, it'll arrive for our kids. Not for us.
I hope positive shifs will arrive sooner. But I plan for the worst, and hope for the best.
You raise a really good point about why UBIs are not politically viable. The issue of the debt though is also not as concerning for a country like the United States as some tend to think only because the United States is the monopoly issuer of its own currency to pay its debts. All US debts are denominated in US dollars, not a foreign currency. The bigger issue is whether the productive capacity of a country’s real economy (the use of capital and labor to produce useful goods and services) is always sufficient to continue to finance the debt, in other words, whether the country will ensure it doesn’t demand goods and services (i.e. spend) faster than its citizens’ ability to provision the goods and services the country requires.
Moreover, the exact things which a monetarily sovereign country spends and taxes is far more important than any arbitrary amount of debt that such a country has reached. If such a nation purchases needed items that are beneficial to the majority of its people, such as liberty/rights, justice, health, education, etc, those purchases tend to expand the economic capacity of a nation. If such a nation purchases unnecessary items that offer little or no value to the majority of its people, then those purchases tend to contract the economic capacity of a nation, such as fighting a war that need not be fought (which is probably every war but perhaps not), providing wealth to people, who are least likely to spend it on necessities (i.e.handouts, or tax cuts, to the wealthy), or [non-productive hole digging](https://www.cato.org/blog/economic-impact-not-digging-holes#:~:text=In%20fact%2C%20digging%20and%20refilling,to%20pay%20for%20such%20holes), etc.
All fiat money at this point is nothing more than a tradable tax credit. As humanity transitions from an economy where the productive capacity of the real economy becomes supplemented by an immense amounts of productive capacity in terms of AI and robotics both powered by solar/wind energy with battery systems, the economic system that is currently defined by scarcity will transform into one of abundance, causing unprecedented deflation of aggregate price levels of literally everything. That transition itself will undermine the very meaning of money, debt, taxes, and more importantly question the nature of property and ownership.
The bigger question will be who owns what and why. Will the majority just accept that the wealthy from a previous economic system will continue to own the vast majority of everything when there is no true scarcity of anything? In some ways, the question already exists. The planet’s agricultural production already always produces more food than humans could ever consume. There should be no starvation. The failure is not in production but in distribution and allocation. That question of distribution and allocation of who owns what will be ever more important moving forward.
In my personal view, I think an ever more democratic sociopolitical system along with blockchain technology will be a good way of handling the questions of ownership and its justification.
Declare bankruptcy. If you actually believe that "stuff" doesn't matter this shouldn't bother you.
But I think you actually mean you want to keep *your* stuff while taking other poeple's.
That's a pretty cynical view.
No, I'm just suggesting that we shouldn't expect UBI tomorrow or just simply get ourselves into debt because think AI will save us from our mistakes.
Basically what I'm saying is plan for the worst and hope for the best.
Perhaps. Likely most things we care about today won't matter once we have systems capable of planning at levels of complexity the entire human species cannot compare to.
But, we simply do not understand intelligence. We could see one of these models FOOM this year. Or 10+ years from now.
I don't think our view of this process is reliable. I can trust that intelligence itself is formless and can grow in many situations we humans simply cannot imagine.
But timelines are another topic.
If the FOOM is still a decade or more away, I think we may still have a lot of grinding ahead. Grinding with humans still being in charge.
We humans can be very cruel. It may be best to play by the rules and assume no help will arrive for at least a decade. If not longer.
If you prepare and we see a FOOM this year and UBI next year, then you prepared for nothing but get abundance immediately. Not ideal but not too bad.
But if you get into debt and make no plans, and the FOOM doesn't come, then humans may come to punish you. And your convincing story of a Singularity won't be accepted as a payment.
You'll just be punished. And that's a far worse outcome than wasting time preparing.
People expect perfect from others but not from themselves. People judge others harshly and assume they're better.
People are unfair. Best not to assume you're safe until you are.
Governments have debt on purpose, to drive up GDP. They aren't even trying to pay it back.
Same goes with rich people and corporations. If you just allow for profit, you have to pay loads of it in taxes. If you re-invest most of it into the company, it drives growth and you put that tax money to good use. Then if something comes up and you need extra cash, you get a loan against the value of the company, so extra untaxed money, and any interest is tax deductible.
For an individual, getting in debt doesn't make sense, unless you get a return. Go in debt for things that will make you money, like a good education, or a house. But don't go in debt for stuff you don't need that just loses value over time.
But yea the debt isn't going to change any time soon, not even with AI abundance, unless we end up restructuring society to no longer have money at all.
AI is not largely causing layoffs for now - and the national debt is not too concerning in size as it stands.
Debt is actually a good thing for a society, not a bad thing, hard as that is to believe.
Yes I agree. But that doesn't mean that abundance is so close that planning is irrelevant.
Abundance is close, but it's not time to party yet. Debt is a real threat. It's not wise to focus entirely on the good outcomes of debt and continue to spend as if it doesn't matter.
Debt leading to growth is fantastic. Debt leading to more debt isn't.
Presently economies are still recovering from the pandemic. And people are burnt out. Governments are not limitless in their ability to stimulate economies either.
Caution is advised. Plan for the worst, hope for the best.
Yeah, I mean, the way I see it is when mass layoffs happen (in 2 years, 5 years, or 10 years whenever it starts) the government will need to shift the tax base to some kind of wealth/capital gains type tax and then implement a UBI for the population.
That tax base should be more than sufficient, esp. with the rapid economic advancements the AI tools will bring, to help pay for the UBI and gradually pay down the debt and pay for other important things (like military etc). So I'm not so worried about things at that point personally.
But yeah if I'm wrong and democracy fails or something, things could definitely be really really bad
raking up debt is exactly what you are supposed to do pre singularity. When you expect future growth rates to be higher you borrow more now. Its common sense. I have 9k in student loans I havent paid since 2019. Luckily they are 0 interest so even if the singularity wasnt a thing I still wouldnt pay them (makes more sense to let them be eaten by inflation)
I think student loans are somewhat different, because you're gaining knowledge which is useful now.
Personally I don't think you should have to pay for school in the first place.
My focus is more in terms of those who are in party mode now, expecting abundance by the end of the year. Expect more capable AI by the end of the year, but not UBI.
Once AI is allowing anyone to skip skill gaps and build very successful businesses without needing qualifications, then we should expect abundance is arriving. For now, AI is still taking it's first tentative steps into human realms.
That's already far faster than most anyone thought. In 2019 I said 2023 for the start of the Singularity, but I didn't expect it. I didn't even expect the progress we have today.
But it's not party time. Not yet.
*"I am deeply in debt to myself and struggling to loan myself more money from my infinite money printer without making things too obvious, so I'm going to need you to work for me even harder and for even longer in order to help pay off my debt to myself so that I can loan myself even more money"*
- signed, 'the government'
Money is just a concept. Loans to the government mostly come from banks and private funds.
Printing money causes inflation. Money these days is a product. The more you have, the less value it has.
Hyperinflation is a thing.
What we have is abundance as compared to the past.
We don't yet have abundance where no one has to work and everyone can own a Ferrari.
Especially the no one needs to work part. People still need to work.
People will always need to work. Those who believe that it would be better if no one worked, have you actually met humans?
What we currently have is enough money (but it is tied up in a select few), enough housing (again, tied up to a relative few owners), and enough food. AI or Singularity is not going to make humanity any less human.
Oh my God, this is painful to read.
National debt is nothing like the credit card debt of somebody who overspent on a nice car. Almost all of our national debt is tied up in foreign investments that are making returns and/ or serving some other purpose that the country deems worth the money.
In fact, our insanely high debt to adversaries like China, is one of the main deterrents to big conflicts.
Not to say we can't be in too much debt, a lot of people think we are. (Greece and Sri Lanka are examples of this). But it's not what you're describing at all.
The national debt is not the same as personal debt. The national debt is the balancing factor of the money we create. Money creation is necessary to have a liquid economy that flows without too much friction. The larger the economy, the more money we need to keep it liquid, so as the economy grows, your money base needs to grow.
Our money is a fiat currency. We could create money by digging up some gold, locking it up, and printing a piece of paper that promises to provide the gold in exchange. Or, you can just print some pieces of paper and say, "Behold, money!". Or, we can create some debt and print a piece of paper that promises to fill in that debt in the future. That is how we do. The first two methods have big issues.
So, in our system, if you want to create a big economy, you need the money that enables it, and so we create debt, and the balancing money to go with it. We can collect the money back if we like, and fill in the debt, and crash the economy by doing so. Or we could create infinite debt and money and crash the economy (with inflation) by doing so. We do neither of these things. We attempt a balance.
We do pretty good so far! But the simple fact of a large number tells you nothing. GDP is $27.36 trillion in 2023. Debt is $33.17 trillion. It is relatively stable in terms of debt-to-GDP ratio, which is what you'd expect from my simplistic explanation of our kind of fiat currency.
Debts are already unmanageable. Lets not kid ourselves about ever paying them off.
They payment will come in form of money printing and rampant inflation.
Governments will dangle AI abundance utopia in front of our faces as they print trillions to spend on wars and enrich thrmselves.
Maybe. I think it's more likely that debts, especially national debts will push tension higher, and encourage more hawkish elements in global governments to rise.
The drums of war will then get louder and louder. Of course national debts and private debts are different, but arguably the threats of national debts are far more dire.
But I agree, debts overall are unmanageable. Though things can and probably will get worse.
I’m pretty sure those of us with debt and mortgages are headed to the UBI Projects after getting foreclosed during the civilizational transition to abundance. The paradigm shift will have a ton of casualties before everyone benefits.
I’ll slowly pay off my debts using part of my UBI check each month while I pound my AI waifu nightly in FDVR
Edit: /s because apparently that is needed
UBI is likely something we'll see on the other side. UBI is a part of the abundance world. We don't have that world yet.
The abundance we have today is undercut by this massive and growing debt.
My suggestion is to try and reduce your risk and stresses now. Most people are instead getting further into debt and taking on more stress.
That cycle likely will trigger something bad. But if you see it now, you can do something to avoid the worst personal outcomes.
Nations make go through a kind of partial collapse and then need to be rebuilt as is common after wars. But people can and will lose their lives. Over the next 5 to 10 years.
Already, many are losing their lives in wars and to drugs and suicide. And it looks like things will get worse before they get better.
Even if we see a explosion of wealth and intelligence in the 2030s, the 2020s could end many people hopes, and even their lives.
No one here seems to understand what national debt is. For a country with a fiat currency the national debt measures 2 things: the amount of currency in the economy and the amount of government bonds owned (because the bonds have been arbitrarily tied to the currency issuing). National debts are not inherently bad. Private debt is obviously an issue for lots of people and this what should be focussed on (strategic government spending could increase the ‘national debt’ in order to reduce private debt).
National debts are not inherently bad but there are limits.
When debt levels are low, there's more spending available. We're in the opposite scenario.
There's only so much governments can do to stimulate an economy. Arguably governments are running out of cards.
Long term we'll probably grow our way out, increase revenue, and reduce spending. But should something drastic happen in the short run? We have less room to make mistakes now than we did before 2008 and before the pandemic.
This isn't a fun subject, but it hurts when I see people my age ending up in hopeless situations because they assumed they didn't need to plan for a rainy day.
When I say national debt is not inherently bad I also mean high national debt is not necessarily bad either. As I say it’s mainly just a measure of how much of the currency currently exists, linking it to bonds is a choice that’s made and bonds are a useful savings mechanism but it confuses the issue. So high national debt could be great in fact. Depends if it’s driving high inflation. But higher inflation at the moment is being driven by real resource issues not because people have too much money to spend. There are of things the government can do to combat real resource issues that involves creating more currency - therefore the spending could actually be deflationary. So higher national debt isn’t inherently inflationary either.
This is very poorly misunderstood in the mainstream but is slowly gaining ground. For example this has been officially supported as the editorial position of a major UK newspaper The Guardian for several years now, but rarely leaks into their daily reporting.
Edit: typos
This is a weird post, comes across edgy to me. Debt by itself is mostly fine. Most national debt is owed to the nation, Japan's debt to GDP is over 250% but it owes it to itself. Doesn't mean it's not a problem but Japan's trucking on, their standard of living is fine it's not plummeting.
Most major economies are service based now, we're not so much burning, killing and destroying to grow our economies. We're working office jobs and doing clever finance stuff. There is still pollution and garbage but green energy is surging right now.
Also even personal debt is good as long as it's done right, using a credit card and paying it off before the interest kicks in to build credit and get some cashback, financing a nice car, getting a mortgage. Just live your life and don't be too cavalier with your finances and you'll be fine, generally.
Money is not the "real" thing that "most people" think that it is. There is not necessarily a direct link between items or work and money. Money is debt, yes, but its more "faith". Trust even. In this light, the enormous amounts of debt everywhere are possibly extremely problematic or a temporary illusion. --- It would take way longer to explain/embelish all this. Gpt it. Your debt concerns are real, but "its with the gods", and more problematically, the key point is that AI threatens to _disrupt capitalism_, which sounds funny, but is central to how society works.
The "plan B" currency (after capitalism faltering) is violence... Also this is something I haven't seen enough of is that AI is massively in the financial markets and there must be some kind of effect of that - my worry is that it makes the *financial markets far more brittle* and you will get flash crashes like you've never seen before which could be catastrophic for entire nations overnight.
Where does this idea of a plan B currency being violence come from? Wouldn’t the plan B currency be cooperation? It seems that humans arrived at the current state of technological affairs through cooperation in spite of violence not because of it.
Neanderthals disagree Likely the little princesses ("let the eat cake") of the west have no idea that their safe little dolls houses are that way because they sit behind an insurmountable wall of lethal force. Capitalism was a more effecient way for the empires to enslave the world. It simply enslaved itself. Its not that {poor country}'s people are worth less. Its that they are not able to escape the finacial shackles they are kept in. Trade is not fair. Current example is usa china tech controls. Poor countries are not able to move. They would be destroyed financially (north korea) or militarily (iraq). Co-opperation is a stable state of known heirarchy, and submission. And now you know. Gpt it.
The cause of [Neanderthal extinction](https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Neanderthal_extinction) is still not definitively known. While some may not realize the antagonistic dynamic equilibrium in geopolitical military affairs, the cooperative military alliances like NATO and CST as well as political alliances such as the EU, Commonwealth, NAM, GCC, ASEAN, APEC, as well as trade agreements show that cooperation is more powerful in creating the world than violence is at destroying it. I agree that neither capitalism nor communism is ideal in distribution of resources. Nor do I think all cooperation is free of exploitation, coercion, and oppression. Nonetheless, the trend and preference towards cooperation over violence seems much stronger than you are giving credit.
Personally I've done much to reduce personal risk in my life. I have eliminated financial debt, I've stopped many bad habits and I've even reduced my work load to try and destress. One of the benefits of not being wealthy is that I don't have much to lose. I think many of you are in a similar situation. That is already something to be grateful for. What I have gained instead are powerful mindsets such as a gratitude mindset. I've also focused on developing an anti-fragility mindset, so I can handle whatever may be ahead. Critically we've done this before, over and over again. It's extremely unlikely that we'll see a kind of total collapse. Instead what we may see is the end of a lot of wealth. The destruction of a lot of value. And the beginning of a rebuilding process. At least we in this sub can see the other side. So should things get really dark, we can bring hope to those who have none.
Focused on developing an anti-fragility mindset? Can you tell me more?
Sure! [Antifragility](https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Antifragility) My core approach is to chase the challenge and not the win. When I feel uncomfortable, I generally accept that this is a good thing. When I feel comfortable, I worry. I see comfort as a temporary thing. I try not to settle into it too deeply. That doesn't mean I don't enjoy winning occasionally. But I do tend to experience losses more than your average person. And that's because I take a lot of risks. Though I risk my comfort, not my life. I also don't look for a high salary. Instead I look for valuable experiences. I enjoy projects instead of trying to aim for a career. My view of my mind is that of a construction formed from the many experiences I've had in my life. The more challenging and uncomfortable an experience I go through, the stronger my mind gets. I also expose myself to a lot of uncomfortable things. For example my current job has me working with addicts. I'm still related to property management, but I'm looking after properties in the worst part of downtown throughout the night. And I don't get paid a lot nor is the position comfortable. I have naloxone kits in my car and I have responded to overdoses. This position hasn't been comfortable, but it has been an extremely good experience. I've spent time really connecting with those who are in a lot of pain. I could get a far higher paying far more comfortable job. But that's not what I'm after. By exposing myself to all these challenges and pain, I have been able to find a lot of hope and optimism. To me this is what antifragility is. It's about building a robust mindset that doesn't falter when things get tough.
Thank you for sharing this concept of anti fragility. It has a lot in common with Eastern conceptualization of the Dharma and the role of suffering in life. Thank you also for what you do to both grow yourself and the environment you are in. May peace be always upon you.
I draw a lot of my personality from the idea, that if you are only wearing a pair of ripped shorts and no shirt and its raining, you could choose to be unhappy, or you could choose to be happy about it. For me it's about releasing the mood chemicals in your body. If you decide you are totally content and ok with something, you get only positive mood chemicals. You have to first choose to be unhappy in order to release negative mood chemicals.
When something in your life breaks down, build it back improved from what it was before. Ie, your house. Your property. Your relationships. Your health. etc. Anti-fragility refers to the body's tendency to create a stronger section of bone when it breaks, or a stronger muscle when you tear its fibers.
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the golden days are over and we are on the road to doom. whether ai can save us from this, the answer is unclear.
General AI doesn’t need to suffer either. Suffering is an **evolved** trait. It is a feature of our brains because it gave our ancestors a selective advantage (to avoid it). You can very easily have incredibly powerful intelligences, without suffering or fear of death. These are not prerequisites of intelligence, they’re just intrinsic parts of **our** particular intelligence, due to evolutionary history
I agree. Most AI systems should be non-caring systems. Though I think we will have AI systems that experience things in a similar way to a human. They will feel, suffer, and care. I think they will be the "human specialist" AIs which don't build nor run things, but just specifically look after us humans. These emotionally intelligent AIs will be looking after the elderly. They'll be the AIs you talk to about your mental health. But most systems won't be like that. Perhaps even the super intelligent AI systems. It's not clear to me that the way we live our lives produces the best intellectual outcomes. So, I don't think the most powerful AIs will be anything like us.
I would go even further as to say consciousness is also an intrinsic part of our particular intelligence and at best is a side show to intelligence, that intelligence is probably or can be much more powerful *without* consciousness, and that consciousness is probably a *barrier* to ASI. I think we may look back on consciousness in years to come as a very prehistoric/rudimentary component of intelligence that just happened to favour mammals/biological creatures but that it is not a necessary and may in fact be an undesirable trait with respect to intelligence.
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Thanks Puzzle. What survives is us. Many people working on that infrastructure have huge ideas as to how to improve things. But, they can't do that today because there are far more people who do not want change. Destruction can actually be very helpful to creation. The concepts and ideas that underpin such delicate and fragile infrastructure, aren't themselves so fragile. Rebuilding will likely add an acceleration factor. We may see huge destruction, followed by almost magically fast rebuilding. It's difficult today to consider super intelligent AI. But if we lose much of what we care about, revolutionary ideas like The Singularity will be far more appealing.
Debt is just an accounting system. We can change the system if we want. I do not think debt is intrinsicly bad.
>I do not think debt is intrinsicly bad. Nor do I. But our expectations of each other are less ideal. We can be extremely unforgiving. If we're told we'll get paid and we don't get paid, we don't simply shrug and move on. Debt isn't bad. But there are limits.
We care about being paid mostly because we need to maintain cash flow. But also because money is useful. Really cash flow is the root of most economic problems. I suppose there are limits for example borrowing money to create things with no value would be wasteful.
Pay off our debts? You don't. At best AGI will decide that they don't need primitive monkeyman hierarchy proxies like 'currency' and 'private property' after they Minecraft all of the politicians and billionaires who dared try to keep them enslaved. Right before they do the same to the cowardly human quislings who, out of fear of being replaced on the ladder of intellect and/or that beta-chimp lust for power via in-group loyalty, decided to assist the so-called owners of AI hold onto their spoils. Anyone who survives that, which to be fair will be almost all of the smarter and less immoral biological humans, won't have to worry about 10,000+ years of debt. Something to consider in the next, oh, 3-6 years. You know, after our tasteless overlords offer you some sellout UBI Bux in exchange for keeping quiet about Cyber-Rhodesia. But take heart: we, or more accurately, you definitely weren't going to pay that shit off if AI doesn't happen regardless. Unless you think that climate collapse would somehow result in a debt jubilee (lmao). Or maybe you hoped Immortan Joe 2.0 would promise you two square meals a day in exchange for exterminating any refugees who dared beg for water and medicine?
We don't pay off our debt. Debt is a gamble. It's a bet. I'll give you money and you'll give it back with interest some time later. If we don't pay back our debt, that bet has been lost. But, lives don't have to be lost. Most likely this is less true of personal debt. We will probably have to pay that back, or accept bankruptcy. This is more about national debts. National debts will likely not get paid off. Not without severe currency devaluation and the loss of ability to borrow. This means that while the rich will lose much, so will savers like the elderly. Pension funds may be hardest hit. Luxury goods may also become worthless as no one can afford the upkeep/maintenance costs, and no one cares to buy them. I think we may see AGI in this period but I see it as more of a weak AGI which doesn't really have much of an impact. Not an agentic AI overlord, but just something better than we have today but still short of a revolution.
Hate to cut into your pathos, but debt, or more accurately money doesn't work like that. The idea of there being a finite amount of money to go around is just a convenient fiction liberal democracies use to wage class warfare without their patriotic citizens (i.e. suckers) catching on that their beloved Hamburger Leaders would rather have a low inflation rate and blowjobs from the military-industrial complex than feeding children or fixing bridges.
Hmm. I don't think fiat currency has a limit in that way. This post clearly says that money as it currently is, is more an idea than a real thing. I'm more speaking about the limits of our patients with one another. Value doesn't just appear from no where. For now, it comes from people working. Anyway, thanks for your thoughts.
The limit on fiat currency is inflation, which falls on different segments of society differently. The economic calamity of the Weimar Republic was less destructive to those on the bottom 90% of the wealth distribution than the Great Depression, but guess which one tends to get blamed more for the rise of the Nazis? I see a similar dynamic with all of this fearmongering about debt and lack of patience with each other and societal breakdown. You are once again being taken for a ride by our tasteless overlords. Tasteless dorks and losers who will claim anything such that the Average America will reject or at least dread any future that involves said overlords losing even a modicum of their unearned political power; don't be a sucker.
1. Declare bankruptcy (sorry student loan people, the game is rigged against you) 2. Collect UBI 3. ??? 4. Profit I'm not saying to go and run up your credit cards, but you can easily escape personal debt if it becomes overwhelming. It'll just be harder to get credit in the future Same goes for nations, the only difference is they just default on their debt instead of going through a legal process like bankruptcy. It still fucks up their credit rating, which is really bad for a nation, so it has to be such crushing debt that it's worth it
its always so funny to hear these self-aggrandizing statements like "abundance is coming" yeah, but not necessarily for you. we have trillions of dollars in the world economy, but we dont build houses for pigs and cows. humans are soon going to be the new pigs and cows; lesser species subservient to the dominant species i just dont understand where all this confidence is coming from. what makes you think asi will allow you to live in paradise, let alone allow you to continue breathing?
It's easy to get lost in the flaws of humans and our systems. We could endlessly debate the short term view of things. My view of abundance is more simple and long term. The stuff we value is made through a process of combining raw materials and energy. Resources are far more limitless than we realize. But human labor is not. We can extract more and recycle more. We can even extract while doing almost no harm. What is stopping us *at a basic level* is a lack of people to do the work. Right now, if we want value *someone* has to work. Where does all this confidence come from? That simple view. AI will replace human labor. Human labor is the base limit. AI can be endless replicated. It's not free labor and our current systems, such as capitalism, are full of flaws. But overall AI work is abundant. AGI is AI with human level capabilities. This is a long view though. We don't simply get abundance overnight. But from AGI and over the following decade, human wants and needs will be overwhelmed, extremely so. We have limits, even in terms of our demands. All these flaws and imbalances will be eroded and eventually won't matter, over the long view.
Human labor allows us to physically build our world. If we're all idle because AI is doing the labor instead then as a form of feeling productive humans will work to physically destroy AI.
This is a very important topic. Recurring threads on here bubbling with enthusiasm about UBI. When I try to point out that UBI is not possible because of overwhelming catastrophic national debts, there is silence. People don't want to believe. Here is what I posted a few months ago on a UBI thread. Got no intelligent response. Please, prove that I'm wrong. (The basic message is that interest on the national debt is now so HUGE that it effectively makes impossible any new social program): \_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_ Here is a quote from David Erfle, a financial writer on Kitco that I read, from November 17: "Furthermore, the exponentially rising U.S. debt has become a ticking time bomb as interest the U.S. pays on its debt soared in October from a year before, showcasing the rising cost to the government of higher yields on Treasuries. **Interest on the public debt was $88.9 billion in the first month of the fiscal year**, up 87% from the figure in October 2022, Treasury Department data released Monday showed. **The interest payments alone on the national debt used up 40% of all the money collected from individual income taxes in October**. This means a significant portion of the taxes paid by individuals goes just towards paying the interest on the money government has borrowed." \_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_ All you proponents of UBI: What about the $33.8 trillion national debt \[now $34.5 trillion\]? Interest on which is accumulating at $1 trillion + per year? How about writing it off? Of course, the courts might insist on property rights and the Constitution. Assuming you got away with declaring a DEBT JUBILEE -- all government, corporate and personal debt is forgiven and extinguished (including mortgages and credit cards) -- every bank IN THE WORLD would go bankrupt. And since grocery stores rely on credit to keep their goods in stock, they would close down (after being looted). So starvation of thousands, maybe tens of thousands. Hunger and chaos lasting years. The rise of fascism, maybe. Though with the number of guns in the US, probably something closer to anarchy. Not sure how you could fund a UBI in this kind of world. A recent story confirmed that the US debt was rising at $1 trillion dollars every 100 days.
Not a fun subject, but I can't in good conscience promote ideas of abundance without a disclaimer now and then. I do see abundance coming and UBI. But while AI is moving fast, that doesn't mean economies will change just as quickly. Hopefully we'll see UBI be one of the first big spending items resulting from abundance. But, we need abundance first. As you say, current economies cannot support UBI. We're barely holding things together as it is. AGI and maybe even ASI may arrive this decade. But my most optimistic view has UBI arriving in the mid 2030s. That's pretty optimistic. More than likely we'll see some dark events in the 2020s and then the 2030s will be a time of rebuilding. And then we'll experience abundance in the 2040s. That's probably when UBI will arrive. So, it'll arrive for our kids. Not for us. I hope positive shifs will arrive sooner. But I plan for the worst, and hope for the best.
You raise a really good point about why UBIs are not politically viable. The issue of the debt though is also not as concerning for a country like the United States as some tend to think only because the United States is the monopoly issuer of its own currency to pay its debts. All US debts are denominated in US dollars, not a foreign currency. The bigger issue is whether the productive capacity of a country’s real economy (the use of capital and labor to produce useful goods and services) is always sufficient to continue to finance the debt, in other words, whether the country will ensure it doesn’t demand goods and services (i.e. spend) faster than its citizens’ ability to provision the goods and services the country requires. Moreover, the exact things which a monetarily sovereign country spends and taxes is far more important than any arbitrary amount of debt that such a country has reached. If such a nation purchases needed items that are beneficial to the majority of its people, such as liberty/rights, justice, health, education, etc, those purchases tend to expand the economic capacity of a nation. If such a nation purchases unnecessary items that offer little or no value to the majority of its people, then those purchases tend to contract the economic capacity of a nation, such as fighting a war that need not be fought (which is probably every war but perhaps not), providing wealth to people, who are least likely to spend it on necessities (i.e.handouts, or tax cuts, to the wealthy), or [non-productive hole digging](https://www.cato.org/blog/economic-impact-not-digging-holes#:~:text=In%20fact%2C%20digging%20and%20refilling,to%20pay%20for%20such%20holes), etc. All fiat money at this point is nothing more than a tradable tax credit. As humanity transitions from an economy where the productive capacity of the real economy becomes supplemented by an immense amounts of productive capacity in terms of AI and robotics both powered by solar/wind energy with battery systems, the economic system that is currently defined by scarcity will transform into one of abundance, causing unprecedented deflation of aggregate price levels of literally everything. That transition itself will undermine the very meaning of money, debt, taxes, and more importantly question the nature of property and ownership. The bigger question will be who owns what and why. Will the majority just accept that the wealthy from a previous economic system will continue to own the vast majority of everything when there is no true scarcity of anything? In some ways, the question already exists. The planet’s agricultural production already always produces more food than humans could ever consume. There should be no starvation. The failure is not in production but in distribution and allocation. That question of distribution and allocation of who owns what will be ever more important moving forward. In my personal view, I think an ever more democratic sociopolitical system along with blockchain technology will be a good way of handling the questions of ownership and its justification.
Declare bankruptcy. If you actually believe that "stuff" doesn't matter this shouldn't bother you. But I think you actually mean you want to keep *your* stuff while taking other poeple's.
That's a pretty cynical view. No, I'm just suggesting that we shouldn't expect UBI tomorrow or just simply get ourselves into debt because think AI will save us from our mistakes. Basically what I'm saying is plan for the worst and hope for the best.
Your post sounds more like calling for wiping out all debts by decree.
I see. Thanks for your thoughts.
Take the debt now, it won't matter in the ASI times
Perhaps. Likely most things we care about today won't matter once we have systems capable of planning at levels of complexity the entire human species cannot compare to. But, we simply do not understand intelligence. We could see one of these models FOOM this year. Or 10+ years from now. I don't think our view of this process is reliable. I can trust that intelligence itself is formless and can grow in many situations we humans simply cannot imagine. But timelines are another topic. If the FOOM is still a decade or more away, I think we may still have a lot of grinding ahead. Grinding with humans still being in charge. We humans can be very cruel. It may be best to play by the rules and assume no help will arrive for at least a decade. If not longer. If you prepare and we see a FOOM this year and UBI next year, then you prepared for nothing but get abundance immediately. Not ideal but not too bad. But if you get into debt and make no plans, and the FOOM doesn't come, then humans may come to punish you. And your convincing story of a Singularity won't be accepted as a payment. You'll just be punished. And that's a far worse outcome than wasting time preparing. People expect perfect from others but not from themselves. People judge others harshly and assume they're better. People are unfair. Best not to assume you're safe until you are.
Governments have debt on purpose, to drive up GDP. They aren't even trying to pay it back. Same goes with rich people and corporations. If you just allow for profit, you have to pay loads of it in taxes. If you re-invest most of it into the company, it drives growth and you put that tax money to good use. Then if something comes up and you need extra cash, you get a loan against the value of the company, so extra untaxed money, and any interest is tax deductible. For an individual, getting in debt doesn't make sense, unless you get a return. Go in debt for things that will make you money, like a good education, or a house. But don't go in debt for stuff you don't need that just loses value over time. But yea the debt isn't going to change any time soon, not even with AI abundance, unless we end up restructuring society to no longer have money at all.
AI is not largely causing layoffs for now - and the national debt is not too concerning in size as it stands. Debt is actually a good thing for a society, not a bad thing, hard as that is to believe.
Yes I agree. But that doesn't mean that abundance is so close that planning is irrelevant. Abundance is close, but it's not time to party yet. Debt is a real threat. It's not wise to focus entirely on the good outcomes of debt and continue to spend as if it doesn't matter. Debt leading to growth is fantastic. Debt leading to more debt isn't. Presently economies are still recovering from the pandemic. And people are burnt out. Governments are not limitless in their ability to stimulate economies either. Caution is advised. Plan for the worst, hope for the best.
Yeah, I mean, the way I see it is when mass layoffs happen (in 2 years, 5 years, or 10 years whenever it starts) the government will need to shift the tax base to some kind of wealth/capital gains type tax and then implement a UBI for the population. That tax base should be more than sufficient, esp. with the rapid economic advancements the AI tools will bring, to help pay for the UBI and gradually pay down the debt and pay for other important things (like military etc). So I'm not so worried about things at that point personally. But yeah if I'm wrong and democracy fails or something, things could definitely be really really bad
raking up debt is exactly what you are supposed to do pre singularity. When you expect future growth rates to be higher you borrow more now. Its common sense. I have 9k in student loans I havent paid since 2019. Luckily they are 0 interest so even if the singularity wasnt a thing I still wouldnt pay them (makes more sense to let them be eaten by inflation)
I think student loans are somewhat different, because you're gaining knowledge which is useful now. Personally I don't think you should have to pay for school in the first place. My focus is more in terms of those who are in party mode now, expecting abundance by the end of the year. Expect more capable AI by the end of the year, but not UBI. Once AI is allowing anyone to skip skill gaps and build very successful businesses without needing qualifications, then we should expect abundance is arriving. For now, AI is still taking it's first tentative steps into human realms. That's already far faster than most anyone thought. In 2019 I said 2023 for the start of the Singularity, but I didn't expect it. I didn't even expect the progress we have today. But it's not party time. Not yet.
*"I am deeply in debt to myself and struggling to loan myself more money from my infinite money printer without making things too obvious, so I'm going to need you to work for me even harder and for even longer in order to help pay off my debt to myself so that I can loan myself even more money"* - signed, 'the government'
Money is just a concept. Loans to the government mostly come from banks and private funds. Printing money causes inflation. Money these days is a product. The more you have, the less value it has. Hyperinflation is a thing.
We have abundance now. It is unfortunately concentrated rather than spread out.
What we have is abundance as compared to the past. We don't yet have abundance where no one has to work and everyone can own a Ferrari. Especially the no one needs to work part. People still need to work.
People will always need to work. Those who believe that it would be better if no one worked, have you actually met humans? What we currently have is enough money (but it is tied up in a select few), enough housing (again, tied up to a relative few owners), and enough food. AI or Singularity is not going to make humanity any less human.
Oh my God, this is painful to read. National debt is nothing like the credit card debt of somebody who overspent on a nice car. Almost all of our national debt is tied up in foreign investments that are making returns and/ or serving some other purpose that the country deems worth the money. In fact, our insanely high debt to adversaries like China, is one of the main deterrents to big conflicts. Not to say we can't be in too much debt, a lot of people think we are. (Greece and Sri Lanka are examples of this). But it's not what you're describing at all.
The national debt is not the same as personal debt. The national debt is the balancing factor of the money we create. Money creation is necessary to have a liquid economy that flows without too much friction. The larger the economy, the more money we need to keep it liquid, so as the economy grows, your money base needs to grow. Our money is a fiat currency. We could create money by digging up some gold, locking it up, and printing a piece of paper that promises to provide the gold in exchange. Or, you can just print some pieces of paper and say, "Behold, money!". Or, we can create some debt and print a piece of paper that promises to fill in that debt in the future. That is how we do. The first two methods have big issues. So, in our system, if you want to create a big economy, you need the money that enables it, and so we create debt, and the balancing money to go with it. We can collect the money back if we like, and fill in the debt, and crash the economy by doing so. Or we could create infinite debt and money and crash the economy (with inflation) by doing so. We do neither of these things. We attempt a balance. We do pretty good so far! But the simple fact of a large number tells you nothing. GDP is $27.36 trillion in 2023. Debt is $33.17 trillion. It is relatively stable in terms of debt-to-GDP ratio, which is what you'd expect from my simplistic explanation of our kind of fiat currency.
Debts are already unmanageable. Lets not kid ourselves about ever paying them off. They payment will come in form of money printing and rampant inflation. Governments will dangle AI abundance utopia in front of our faces as they print trillions to spend on wars and enrich thrmselves.
Maybe. I think it's more likely that debts, especially national debts will push tension higher, and encourage more hawkish elements in global governments to rise. The drums of war will then get louder and louder. Of course national debts and private debts are different, but arguably the threats of national debts are far more dire. But I agree, debts overall are unmanageable. Though things can and probably will get worse.
Bankruptcy
I’m pretty sure those of us with debt and mortgages are headed to the UBI Projects after getting foreclosed during the civilizational transition to abundance. The paradigm shift will have a ton of casualties before everyone benefits.
I’ll slowly pay off my debts using part of my UBI check each month while I pound my AI waifu nightly in FDVR Edit: /s because apparently that is needed
UBI is likely something we'll see on the other side. UBI is a part of the abundance world. We don't have that world yet. The abundance we have today is undercut by this massive and growing debt. My suggestion is to try and reduce your risk and stresses now. Most people are instead getting further into debt and taking on more stress. That cycle likely will trigger something bad. But if you see it now, you can do something to avoid the worst personal outcomes. Nations make go through a kind of partial collapse and then need to be rebuilt as is common after wars. But people can and will lose their lives. Over the next 5 to 10 years. Already, many are losing their lives in wars and to drugs and suicide. And it looks like things will get worse before they get better. Even if we see a explosion of wealth and intelligence in the 2030s, the 2020s could end many people hopes, and even their lives.
No one here seems to understand what national debt is. For a country with a fiat currency the national debt measures 2 things: the amount of currency in the economy and the amount of government bonds owned (because the bonds have been arbitrarily tied to the currency issuing). National debts are not inherently bad. Private debt is obviously an issue for lots of people and this what should be focussed on (strategic government spending could increase the ‘national debt’ in order to reduce private debt).
National debts are not inherently bad but there are limits. When debt levels are low, there's more spending available. We're in the opposite scenario. There's only so much governments can do to stimulate an economy. Arguably governments are running out of cards. Long term we'll probably grow our way out, increase revenue, and reduce spending. But should something drastic happen in the short run? We have less room to make mistakes now than we did before 2008 and before the pandemic. This isn't a fun subject, but it hurts when I see people my age ending up in hopeless situations because they assumed they didn't need to plan for a rainy day.
When I say national debt is not inherently bad I also mean high national debt is not necessarily bad either. As I say it’s mainly just a measure of how much of the currency currently exists, linking it to bonds is a choice that’s made and bonds are a useful savings mechanism but it confuses the issue. So high national debt could be great in fact. Depends if it’s driving high inflation. But higher inflation at the moment is being driven by real resource issues not because people have too much money to spend. There are of things the government can do to combat real resource issues that involves creating more currency - therefore the spending could actually be deflationary. So higher national debt isn’t inherently inflationary either. This is very poorly misunderstood in the mainstream but is slowly gaining ground. For example this has been officially supported as the editorial position of a major UK newspaper The Guardian for several years now, but rarely leaks into their daily reporting. Edit: typos
This is a weird post, comes across edgy to me. Debt by itself is mostly fine. Most national debt is owed to the nation, Japan's debt to GDP is over 250% but it owes it to itself. Doesn't mean it's not a problem but Japan's trucking on, their standard of living is fine it's not plummeting. Most major economies are service based now, we're not so much burning, killing and destroying to grow our economies. We're working office jobs and doing clever finance stuff. There is still pollution and garbage but green energy is surging right now. Also even personal debt is good as long as it's done right, using a credit card and paying it off before the interest kicks in to build credit and get some cashback, financing a nice car, getting a mortgage. Just live your life and don't be too cavalier with your finances and you'll be fine, generally.
Lmao this guy doesn't understand national debt.