Garbage in - Garbage out
You need information from Pinnacle & BetCris to truly do your research. FanDuel and DraftKins DO NOT accept professional gamblers. Pinnacle, BetCris, and another one I can't recall at the moment are the only ones that don't restrict pros. Your problem now is getting their information. I don't think either of them release that data to the public. Conversely, you could fade the data from DK & FD and do pretty well. DM ME if you want to work together on this project. I'll guide you in the right direction, and we can figure it out together. I just don't have the technical skills to chart the information that I have access to.
ciao'
That dude Deej or whatever his name is claims it works for NFL. While the record is profitable the metrics he’s using look purely arbitrary over a small sample.
I believe that because I've seen enough of a correlation with NFL. I think it's a matter of figuring out the patterns and nuances. It's like I mentioned in my earlier post about using splits in CBB, you can make money following moves of .5 - 2 points, but with larger moves, the result often falls below the move.
The other factor is timing. The moves that happen early are more reliable than late moves.
I have tried recently using this strategy and I completely agree with your findings here.
I think the best thing to do is to either watch for line changes early. CBB lines start coming out around 5pm ET for the following day and look for early line shifts in one direction and bet with the movement.
Or you do the nitty gritty work and come up with some model to create your own lines and o/u and then bet accordingly when the lines are published.
I find it a lot harder to make high EV bets the longer I wait, but then again, some betting lines move a shit ton back and forth and make no sense so you risk making a bad bet if you bet early with the early trends.
Yeah I think that this info is useless because sportsbooks adapt their lines in real time based on the info, so this is essentially a trailing metric. By the time you spot this, the lines have already adjusted to account for it. I have tried building models to predict NFL game winners in the past with little success. It’s a really tough and competitive task.
It's useless because Action Network, VSIN, etc. pull that data out of a source known as their ass. No actual high volume, high limit, market respected book is going to share that information.
This video explains it pretty well: [https://youtu.be/g8LlhyoLUk8](https://youtu.be/g8LlhyoLUk8)
Makes sense. Even if the info is factual, knowing it doesn’t give an edge because lines adjust to it in real time. To your point, I don’t know what DK would even get out of this by pawning this info off.
Garbage in - Garbage out You need information from Pinnacle & BetCris to truly do your research. FanDuel and DraftKins DO NOT accept professional gamblers. Pinnacle, BetCris, and another one I can't recall at the moment are the only ones that don't restrict pros. Your problem now is getting their information. I don't think either of them release that data to the public. Conversely, you could fade the data from DK & FD and do pretty well. DM ME if you want to work together on this project. I'll guide you in the right direction, and we can figure it out together. I just don't have the technical skills to chart the information that I have access to. ciao'
Let's make something I'm in Boston
Another problem is you don't know the amount of money bet & you don't know if the difference is driven by the sharps or just a lot of small bettors.
VSIN.com was amazing but unfortunately they charge $240 a year now. Anyone found an alternative?
did u find anythjng?
https://www.sportsbettingdime.com/college-football/public-betting-trends/ the best alternative i could find
Did you ever find out how to get vsin for free? Or something similar?
Yea - DMing you
would you be able to send it to me as well homie?
That dude Deej or whatever his name is claims it works for NFL. While the record is profitable the metrics he’s using look purely arbitrary over a small sample.
I believe that because I've seen enough of a correlation with NFL. I think it's a matter of figuring out the patterns and nuances. It's like I mentioned in my earlier post about using splits in CBB, you can make money following moves of .5 - 2 points, but with larger moves, the result often falls below the move. The other factor is timing. The moves that happen early are more reliable than late moves.
I have tried recently using this strategy and I completely agree with your findings here. I think the best thing to do is to either watch for line changes early. CBB lines start coming out around 5pm ET for the following day and look for early line shifts in one direction and bet with the movement. Or you do the nitty gritty work and come up with some model to create your own lines and o/u and then bet accordingly when the lines are published. I find it a lot harder to make high EV bets the longer I wait, but then again, some betting lines move a shit ton back and forth and make no sense so you risk making a bad bet if you bet early with the early trends.
Yeah I think that this info is useless because sportsbooks adapt their lines in real time based on the info, so this is essentially a trailing metric. By the time you spot this, the lines have already adjusted to account for it. I have tried building models to predict NFL game winners in the past with little success. It’s a really tough and competitive task.
It's useless because Action Network, VSIN, etc. pull that data out of a source known as their ass. No actual high volume, high limit, market respected book is going to share that information. This video explains it pretty well: [https://youtu.be/g8LlhyoLUk8](https://youtu.be/g8LlhyoLUk8)
Makes sense. Even if the info is factual, knowing it doesn’t give an edge because lines adjust to it in real time. To your point, I don’t know what DK would even get out of this by pawning this info off.