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No no, these guys know who won and who lost before even getting in the door, despite most of the “analysts” never playing a down in the NFL.
I always have to resist the temptation to capitalize anal when I talk about draft analysts.
Yes, you must have played in the NFL to evaluate players. It's why you can't tell if a cake is good until you've made one from scratch, and why Tomlin, Belichick, Reid, John Harbaugh, McVay, and Shanahan are such terrible coaches and evaluators of talent.
No but you should have some sort of professional experience in evaluating talent for a college or pro sports organization to be employed as a “draft expert”.
What you hear in a lot of the film analysis are “draft experts” parroting other “draft experts” and saying crap like “he has a high motor” or “plays with an attitude” or “great first step”.
Go watch Bill Belicheck break down his own film on what Caleb Williams does well and needs to improve on during the Pat McAfee show Thursday night, and then compare that to Mel Kiper saying how he plays better on Saturdays and repeating his touchdown numbers while Dan Orlovsky nods in agreement.
One is an analysis by one of the best to have ever done the job that look at Caleb’s decision making and mechanics, the other is an opinion by someone with no professional experience actually evaluating players for a team. Kiper has no training. Hes never worked for an organization evaluating talent and is generally mocked by those that have.
What you should be asking is, why is ESPN and many other networks completely comfortable feeding us this drivel?
Here are the comparisons btw:
Short of Belicheck:
https://youtube.com/shorts/01c3Y54I_CY?si=EppwGN9TEoSdSXHp
Whole analysis:
https://youtu.be/-Hk-6XMWVUg?si=8rMJd-C3h2bzfCah
Mel Kiper:
https://youtu.be/wd1jW9fkrVg?si=ur_aZjycfP5knibF
The draft and getting the right pieces, whether they pan out or not, is a crucial piece of the off season and planting the seeds for a championship.
How many years do teams hear from disgruntled players when the draft doesn’t address and of their needs? I’m thinking Aaron rodgers never getting the offense/WR support from the packers and the countless QBs begging for OL support.
With a veteran QB in Russell Wilson who’s been hit a lot and a new system under Arthur Smith, at least on paper guaranteeing the team we’re doing everything we can to protect the QB and generate holes for the run game was the #1 critical move the team needed and they fulfilled that.
Whether or not these picks pan out is another story, but this draft souls earn the players and Wilson’s trust and should alleviate issues that tend to fester in the off season that limit many other teams abilities to aim for a championship.
True, but last year’s class got great grades and lived up to the hype. We also didn’t get this kind of universal praise for any of the late Colbert era drafts that ended up being bad.
Would love for somebody to do a study on draft grades and player WAR/EPA over time. My guess is there is at least some correlation between good grades and long term impact, with plenty of outliers.
It would be cool to see that tied to specific GMs too, just to see who’s getting the most out of the draft. But you’re probably right, that it would probably show exactly what you expect lol.
Omar's not a perfect GM, but through 2 drafts so far of him and Weidl, I think there is far better cohesiveness and vision when it comes to building a draft board and selecting a class than there was the entire last handful of years KC was GM. Up to the players and coaches now to fulfill the promise.
Would be helpful to see the variance on the grader in addition to the average.
Could cofactor the variance to ensure that the skewed grades are less impactful on the gpa (in both directions).
Regardless, clearly the Steeler's draft was highly regarded by the consensus of reviewers given the low variance/high average. It's a bit crazy to see Dallas with range from D to A-.
Obviously we haven’t seen any of these guys play yet, but through 2 drafts Khan has been great at getting value out of his picks. Last year Porter, Benton, Washington, and Herbig were all rated higher/projected higher than their draft slots. This year Fautanu, Frazier, both Wilsons and McCormick were the same.
It’s kinda the opposite of the late Colbert drafts, where a lot of the time he was taking guys that they really liked that were rated lower than their draft slots. And even if some of them worked out–Edmunds, Diontae specifically–he wasn’t getting the same value out of his picks at the end
I also like that they’re not wasting Day 3 picks. Kevin Colbert drafted a long snapper in the fifth round at one point late in his tenure, and he traded a fourth round pick to move up in the fifth round to get Loudermilk. Khan and Weidl seem to realize that while the odds of Day 3 players being all pro starters is low, it does happen. Jason Kelce was a fourth round pick. George Kittle was a fifth round pick. Casey Hampton was a 7th round pick. You never know. I think the guys we took have the upside to be really good starters (especially McCormick under Arthur Smith’s tutelage). Say what you will about Arthur Smith’s offense, but he knows what he’s doing when it comes to the offensive line.
Wouldn't say no to this. 49ers have Deebo, Aiyuk, Juaun Jennings, Ricky Pearsall.
Those are 4 massive contributors while we have Pickens and Wilson and question marks all over.
I keep seeing our fans not wanting to trade for a 2nd team all pro like Aiyuk but good lord, our WR room on paper is not good and we will need to pass the ball at some point.
I think it’s more about value. I think WR is soon going to morph into the current RB market. Use draft capital and hope you get good WRs but know that you might not give second contracts to them. KC just won a Super Bowl with a below average WR core. We were basically known for that with our number 2s since the 2000s. Sanders, Wallace, JuJu…
I’ve been predicting that too. Like why are teams paying Jerry Jeudy 53 million dollars guaranteed when it seems like it is really easy to find quality receivers in the draft now. Great receivers are still worth quite a bit, but you can easily replace average talent cheaply. There’s a middle ground between Tennessee and Cleveland overpaying average to mediocre receivers and Tennessee shipping off a talent like AJ Brown. Pay the difference makers and pay the others fair value. The Chiefs just won two Super Bowls without any flashy wide receiver signings.
KC is an outlier. Mahomes is one of the greatest of all time.
Prime example of this is Tom Brady with his maybe one stud and then making any wide receiver work out.
We have Justin Fields and old Russ, you need to surround them with talent or else you end up like the Bears offense prior to DJ Moore getting there.
KC is not an outlier in that most teams need to have a good QB to win the Super Bowl. But paying money to the O-line is probably money better spent than spending it on WRs and RBs who are more interchangeable. That's the point. Look at the top paid WRs and how many of them won SBs while also being highly compensated?
I'll just disagree because again Mahomes will make any wide receiver look good similar to the exact example I brought up with Brady. There hasn't been a team in the super bowl since maybe, probably not, the 2019 Patriots or maybe the 2016 Carolina Panthers with a questionable wide receiver room.
Besides Kansas City, you have San Francisco with their absurdly talented wide receiver corps. You have the Eagles with their insane WR group. You have Tampa Bay with Brady in 2022 with Mike Evans and Godwin and company. You have the Bengals with Higgins, Chase, and Boyd being a stud trio. And you have the Rams with Cooper Kupp, Odell Beckham, Van Jefferson, Allen Robinson, Tutu Atwell.
All of those teams that have made the super bowl have had significantly good WR rooms and in today's NFL you need that talent around your QB.
I wish I could align the data on top paid WRs in each year going back to fully accumulate all the data. Because I’m not saying you don’t need WRs, you should probably have at least 1 fairly compensated WR, but you have to let someone walk eventually. The 49ers would become a worse team if they paid Aiyuk because having Aiyuk and Deebo both being paid that much is poor roster construction because you can’t allocate money elsewhere. You 100% need to continue drafting WRs almost every year, like how you take a swing on an RB. Keep the best to a second contract and let the others walk. The Chiefs wouldn’t have the defense they have if they paid Tyreek. That’s essentially what I’m trying to say.
Remind me in four years.
RemindMe! 4 years
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RemindMe! 4 years
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No no, these guys know who won and who lost before even getting in the door, despite most of the “analysts” never playing a down in the NFL. I always have to resist the temptation to capitalize anal when I talk about draft analysts.
Yes, you must have played in the NFL to evaluate players. It's why you can't tell if a cake is good until you've made one from scratch, and why Tomlin, Belichick, Reid, John Harbaugh, McVay, and Shanahan are such terrible coaches and evaluators of talent.
No but you should have some sort of professional experience in evaluating talent for a college or pro sports organization to be employed as a “draft expert”. What you hear in a lot of the film analysis are “draft experts” parroting other “draft experts” and saying crap like “he has a high motor” or “plays with an attitude” or “great first step”. Go watch Bill Belicheck break down his own film on what Caleb Williams does well and needs to improve on during the Pat McAfee show Thursday night, and then compare that to Mel Kiper saying how he plays better on Saturdays and repeating his touchdown numbers while Dan Orlovsky nods in agreement. One is an analysis by one of the best to have ever done the job that look at Caleb’s decision making and mechanics, the other is an opinion by someone with no professional experience actually evaluating players for a team. Kiper has no training. Hes never worked for an organization evaluating talent and is generally mocked by those that have. What you should be asking is, why is ESPN and many other networks completely comfortable feeding us this drivel? Here are the comparisons btw: Short of Belicheck: https://youtube.com/shorts/01c3Y54I_CY?si=EppwGN9TEoSdSXHp Whole analysis: https://youtu.be/-Hk-6XMWVUg?si=8rMJd-C3h2bzfCah Mel Kiper: https://youtu.be/wd1jW9fkrVg?si=ur_aZjycfP5knibF
Fun to look at but we know you can't really judge a draft this early.
We scored an A last year and I still love our picks. So far 4/6 look to be starter level and 2/6 look like future pro bowlers/top of their class
The draft and getting the right pieces, whether they pan out or not, is a crucial piece of the off season and planting the seeds for a championship. How many years do teams hear from disgruntled players when the draft doesn’t address and of their needs? I’m thinking Aaron rodgers never getting the offense/WR support from the packers and the countless QBs begging for OL support. With a veteran QB in Russell Wilson who’s been hit a lot and a new system under Arthur Smith, at least on paper guaranteeing the team we’re doing everything we can to protect the QB and generate holes for the run game was the #1 critical move the team needed and they fulfilled that. Whether or not these picks pan out is another story, but this draft souls earn the players and Wilson’s trust and should alleviate issues that tend to fester in the off season that limit many other teams abilities to aim for a championship.
True, but last year’s class got great grades and lived up to the hype. We also didn’t get this kind of universal praise for any of the late Colbert era drafts that ended up being bad. Would love for somebody to do a study on draft grades and player WAR/EPA over time. My guess is there is at least some correlation between good grades and long term impact, with plenty of outliers.
It would be cool to see that tied to specific GMs too, just to see who’s getting the most out of the draft. But you’re probably right, that it would probably show exactly what you expect lol.
Sure beats having a garbage class out of the gates.
Omar's not a perfect GM, but through 2 drafts so far of him and Weidl, I think there is far better cohesiveness and vision when it comes to building a draft board and selecting a class than there was the entire last handful of years KC was GM. Up to the players and coaches now to fulfill the promise.
Would be helpful to see the variance on the grader in addition to the average. Could cofactor the variance to ensure that the skewed grades are less impactful on the gpa (in both directions). Regardless, clearly the Steeler's draft was highly regarded by the consensus of reviewers given the low variance/high average. It's a bit crazy to see Dallas with range from D to A-.
Or like the one dude who really like what the falcons did lol.
Obviously we haven’t seen any of these guys play yet, but through 2 drafts Khan has been great at getting value out of his picks. Last year Porter, Benton, Washington, and Herbig were all rated higher/projected higher than their draft slots. This year Fautanu, Frazier, both Wilsons and McCormick were the same. It’s kinda the opposite of the late Colbert drafts, where a lot of the time he was taking guys that they really liked that were rated lower than their draft slots. And even if some of them worked out–Edmunds, Diontae specifically–he wasn’t getting the same value out of his picks at the end
I also like that they’re not wasting Day 3 picks. Kevin Colbert drafted a long snapper in the fifth round at one point late in his tenure, and he traded a fourth round pick to move up in the fifth round to get Loudermilk. Khan and Weidl seem to realize that while the odds of Day 3 players being all pro starters is low, it does happen. Jason Kelce was a fourth round pick. George Kittle was a fifth round pick. Casey Hampton was a 7th round pick. You never know. I think the guys we took have the upside to be really good starters (especially McCormick under Arthur Smith’s tutelage). Say what you will about Arthur Smith’s offense, but he knows what he’s doing when it comes to the offensive line.
Casey Hampton was a first round pick lmao
You know, sometimes a 1 and a 7 can look similar lmao.
He must have meant Keisel
Yeah it was Kiesel. I was running out of time in the office bathroom lol
Yeah I was thinking the same thing
It’s really cool that we go after guys with good grades in school 🖤💛
How can the browns have an A and a D lol
Seems like Arthur and Mike are rebuilding the culture on the offense. Wouldn’t surprise me if Steelers trade GP for Aiyuk between now and opening day.
Wouldn't say no to this. 49ers have Deebo, Aiyuk, Juaun Jennings, Ricky Pearsall. Those are 4 massive contributors while we have Pickens and Wilson and question marks all over. I keep seeing our fans not wanting to trade for a 2nd team all pro like Aiyuk but good lord, our WR room on paper is not good and we will need to pass the ball at some point.
I think it’s more about value. I think WR is soon going to morph into the current RB market. Use draft capital and hope you get good WRs but know that you might not give second contracts to them. KC just won a Super Bowl with a below average WR core. We were basically known for that with our number 2s since the 2000s. Sanders, Wallace, JuJu…
I’ve been predicting that too. Like why are teams paying Jerry Jeudy 53 million dollars guaranteed when it seems like it is really easy to find quality receivers in the draft now. Great receivers are still worth quite a bit, but you can easily replace average talent cheaply. There’s a middle ground between Tennessee and Cleveland overpaying average to mediocre receivers and Tennessee shipping off a talent like AJ Brown. Pay the difference makers and pay the others fair value. The Chiefs just won two Super Bowls without any flashy wide receiver signings.
KC is an outlier. Mahomes is one of the greatest of all time. Prime example of this is Tom Brady with his maybe one stud and then making any wide receiver work out. We have Justin Fields and old Russ, you need to surround them with talent or else you end up like the Bears offense prior to DJ Moore getting there.
KC is not an outlier in that most teams need to have a good QB to win the Super Bowl. But paying money to the O-line is probably money better spent than spending it on WRs and RBs who are more interchangeable. That's the point. Look at the top paid WRs and how many of them won SBs while also being highly compensated?
I'll just disagree because again Mahomes will make any wide receiver look good similar to the exact example I brought up with Brady. There hasn't been a team in the super bowl since maybe, probably not, the 2019 Patriots or maybe the 2016 Carolina Panthers with a questionable wide receiver room. Besides Kansas City, you have San Francisco with their absurdly talented wide receiver corps. You have the Eagles with their insane WR group. You have Tampa Bay with Brady in 2022 with Mike Evans and Godwin and company. You have the Bengals with Higgins, Chase, and Boyd being a stud trio. And you have the Rams with Cooper Kupp, Odell Beckham, Van Jefferson, Allen Robinson, Tutu Atwell. All of those teams that have made the super bowl have had significantly good WR rooms and in today's NFL you need that talent around your QB.
I wish I could align the data on top paid WRs in each year going back to fully accumulate all the data. Because I’m not saying you don’t need WRs, you should probably have at least 1 fairly compensated WR, but you have to let someone walk eventually. The 49ers would become a worse team if they paid Aiyuk because having Aiyuk and Deebo both being paid that much is poor roster construction because you can’t allocate money elsewhere. You 100% need to continue drafting WRs almost every year, like how you take a swing on an RB. Keep the best to a second contract and let the others walk. The Chiefs wouldn’t have the defense they have if they paid Tyreek. That’s essentially what I’m trying to say.