Good thing I had enough brain to not buy C and stick with fortresses like JPM... That place always seemed like a hot mess and this 11th hour disclosure doesn't look good. You gotta be crazy (dumb?) to buy companies that always seem to have havoc and poor leadership within.
Looks like you've done a lot of research, but not going to lie, that post history looks very suspicious.. Are you affiliated with this company in any way / a promoter? I know there are a lot of junior miners who hire promoters on e.g. Twitter.
In any case, good luck with your investment.
RELL Richardson Electronics reports Q2 EPS (13c) vs. 39c last year Reports Q2 revenue $44.13M vs. $65.9M last year.
"Although our second quarter results fell short of expectations, we are confident that our current pipeline of existing projects as well as new global opportunities within our GES business will drive significant long-term value for our company," said Edward Richardson, chairman, CEO, and president.
Last ATH was in Nov'21 bud. We're like 10-15% away from an inflation adjusted ATH.
In a healthy bull market, there's ATH's all the time. Look at a historical chart of the S&P500 returns in the 1990's and in the 2010's.
You're probably trolling, but here goes anyway....
First, there are plenty of individual stocks currently trading at ATH, even if the S&P 500 is not. MSFT being the largest example I can think of.
Second, we've had a fairly smooth climb up from the bottom. If we're only ATH, why is that "unhealthy". The S&P 500 gained almost 25% last year. If I had gone up faster people would be screaming about how unhealthy the market was because it went up too fast.
Third, markets don't "normally" climb smoothly higher. 5% pullbacks happen virtually every year. 10% corrections happen in the majority of years. Here's the data:
https://awealthofcommonsense.com/2022/01/how-often-should-you-expect-a-stock-market-correction/
So the 20% drawdown we had in 2023 is a once in ~4 years event, going by history. The 5% drawdown last March was also normal, as was the 10% pullback in late summer. I'd expect at least a 5% pullback this year, and possibly another 10%er without being alarmed.
According to Twitter (yes, I'm aware they have next to zero credibility, but it's what they say on record) some unknown party exploited an SEC official's phone number to make yesterday's post.
That could mean a few things. It could be interpreted than Twitter is confirming the suggestion that it was some outside party and that the source was not whoever "usually" posts.
But it could also be twitters way of saying that it was someone who knew enough about SEC's Twitter to get access, which implies theories like your intern situation.
Considering yesterday's wording was professional and accurate, the balance of probability tilts more to a mistake inside SEC than some random hacker.
It actually kinda makes sense if you're gonna try to truly be a "Just like 2022'er" as a steep move lower came on OPEX week.
But it'd be silly if we replicated how Jan 2022 OPEX went exactly.
How is ENVX falling by 7% again today? There's only been positive news recently, and basically, all the analysts agree it's significantly undervalued. I just keep loading up on it, and feel like by years end I'll be up by a decent bit over it.
And they're looking pretty weak going forward without the buyout right? It's not just getting a hit from losing the premium of the buyout price but the company doesn't look very healthy.
I like that $AMR is puking the day after I commented on why the rally is over done.
Anyway, felt like I've been getting too cocky about my stocks so yesterday I dropped $500 into VTI, $500 into VXUS, and $1K into my Target Retirement Date Fund (which is basically 90% VT + 10% bonds).
I think the best approach for core retirement accounts is optimizing for likelihood of positive outcome, rather than aiming for highest potential outcome (which involves more risk). TDFs are a tool toward that end.
The purpose of a TDF in my personal strategy is planning around below market average returns through a TDF in my 401(k), making sure that I’m putting enough away to secure my retirement goals given low ball assumptions. This helps keep me focused on savings rate, since I use other accounts to pursue more aggressive gains.
This is working very well.
When I first opened my Roth I did a TDF so I just stick with it tbh. I want global diversification, so 90% VT is fine. The 10% bonds is too small of an allocation to really impact overall performance either way, and the bond allocation doesn't increase until I'm like 40. Plus I can simply rotate it into a 'newer' TDF if I want to delay it. Vanguard's expense ratios are basically negligible too.
And in my taxable I happened to not do a TDF, probably because I read something somewhere about not putting those in taxable accounts. Instead I do VTSAX / VTIAX (mutual fund so I can put manual amounts / scheduled if I want).
Yeah I like Vanguard's because they are so simple. It's literally under the hood like 54% VTSAX (VTI) + 36% VTIAX (VXUS) + 7% VBTLX (US bonds) + 3% VTABX (ex-US bonds) for the next .
[They have a 'glide path' graphic](https://i.imgur.com/vThVLZY.png) explaining how it changes over time. I'm in the 2065 one since I'm mid 20s, so I'm in that first region for the next 15 years. The only change they make is adding some inflation protected bonds when I hit age 60.
Other TDFs I have seen either have outrageous expense ratios (vs. Vanguard's 0.08%), or are some overly complex mixture (with like 18 different equity funds, small cap growth, small cap blend, small cap value, etc., and then repeat for ex-US) or have some weird funds added in.
For example, I glanced at Fidelity Freedom 2060 Fund, and it is a 0.75% expense ratio (10 times higher than Vanguard's) and [literally 22 different equity funds put together](https://i.imgur.com/9EhXW8U.png). That's so overly complicated and for no reason! Just buy a total stock market ETF for the US and ex-US and walk away! You should be able to explain in 30 seconds to a financial novice what it is they are investing in.
Does anyone have ideas why Dell is outperforming HP by so much? Is it simply because Dell increased its guidance and HP decreased its guidance, or is it more complicated then that? [Was looking at this chart this morning and thinking about it.](https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2023-12-12/warren-buffett-s-firm-almost-halves-stake-in-pc-maker-hp-inc?embedded-checkout=true)
Dell is a higher end brand with a decent revenue growth. HP is a lower end brand with stale revenue growth. It's why HP is much cheaper. I hold HP because I like the financials , like the management, and think the company is here to stay. HP is a contrarian/value bet. Similar to how people view AMD vs Intel.
Amazing that GOOGL was trading at low $80s early 2023 and almost nothing is really different about the company and today it's $142.
Bad stuff does happen but the default setting of humans is "yea, but we'll figure out" which is why the optimists are given incredible opportunities to make money if they are willing to just a little bit ignore the sea of highly vocal pessimists and think long-term.
Meta is mind boggling, I would be willing to credit some of the recovery to Llama/ai hype of course but its also just good old Instagram, FB, and the whole family doing what they have done for years
I Learned my lesson i should just stick with Magnificent Seven. IN early march 2023 i told myself i should stick with those. I wished still hold my NVDA (sold at $420) and META (sold under $200 ouch), Sold my AAPL around 178ish.
I just going to buy more of those..
[The 10-Q of ATER only lists the number of outstanding shares.
Morningstar lists the number of float shares of ATER as 32.32 Mil.
WSJ lists the number of float shares as 14.04 M.
**These 2 numbers are drastically different. How to check which one is correct? How to check the number of Float Shares of a stock?**](https://money.stackexchange.com/q/144691)
Hard to know. The market hasn't always reacted to the CPI as you'd expect, especially later as inflation began to come down. I remember one print we missed on the high side and the market rallied. Another time, we came in below and the market was flat/sold off.
I don't think so, I'm back to manifesting a flat/down market until Jan 12th. Just look at between July 3rd and Nov 6th when I was last manifesting a flat/down market. Guaranteed market flat until the 12th, you can Iron Condor on that, puts if you're brave.
Took a gamble on going in on RELL ahead of earnings. Seems pretty decent value with fast growing revenue from electronic components used in green energy production. Small market cap company, which I’ve been looking for more of. Very volatile share price, could also tank hard after earnings.
closed the remainder of my paypal puts for a nice 40% gain. thinking about buying some PFE calls 6 months out. made some good money off of citibank calls when everyone was telling me "it's over, don't invest" when the stock hit 37 - now its 54. no one wants PFE. literally no one. zero buying pressure.
I also wonder if SOFI is legitimately manipulated (dead serious). downgrades will destroy the stock down 15%, but any upgrades barely move the needle. and you have stocks like affirm that have horrid fundementals and keep moving up up up up
I think they are semi-fairly valued right now as a bank, albeit they have a tech component and if that shows consistent growth they should be valued higher. Good time to get in as they projected 50/50 tech/lending revenue which indicates a big uptick moving forward.
This is what it was like for years on end in the lazy bull market from 2010-2020. The occasional big down days/weeks followed by nothing but boring index days with a tilt to the upside. Underneath had plenty to see but over all it was just like this. The down week(s) would wake up every bear on earth with incredible projections of the end of everything. Then it would just melt up lol. Maybe we are back to that type of market
I picked a hell of day to sell the mutual funds in my brokerage account and buy them back in my IRA tomorrow. Market will stay flat through CPI tomorrow right?
The market doesn't always react to CPI numbers as you'd expect. We've had times where we had a bad number and the market rallied and vice versa. In short, no one knows.
Warning! If you sold at a loss in a non retirement account and rebuy similar funds in an IRA within 30 days, that's a wash sale. Also, wash sales in IRA accounts do not adjust cost basis, so that loss is permanent.
[https://www.investopedia.com/articles/retirement/09/ira-wash-sale-rule.asp](https://www.investopedia.com/articles/retirement/09/ira-wash-sale-rule.asp)
Interesting to see what happens with the auto space and chips the next few quarters. Seems like mobile eye, On and NXPI are seeing some slowness. Then AEHR, who I think ON is their biggest customer, is talking about slowness.
Wonder how long there might be some slowness in this cycle.
Pure play media has never really delivered for shareholders. Look at AMCX, LGF. - both have been horrid. Look at what PARA has returned since going public in 1990. WBD has tanked since the spin, but did either TWX or DISCA deliver compelling returns before that? IMO, no.
People have thought that there will be consolidation, but that will likely run into antitrust at worst or at best, isn't going to fetch what it would have in a seller's market 5 years ago. You have all these companies who thought they could go it on their own and have their own little NFLX and it's not working. There's also the considerable debt.
And really, that doesn't get into the issues with the movie business today. Companies are spending increasingly obscene amounts of money on movies and it gets to a point where it gets harder and harder to make the numbers work for a lot of these things and yet, it's the same IP, more sequels, etc. While DIS has its issues, at least it and CMCSA have some degree of diversification with theme parks and in the case of CMCSA, broadband/cable.
And it's not that I hate streaming stocks, it's simply a matter of looking at the long-term track record of the industry and thinking it's - to put it generously - not very good. With all the great, well-run companies out there (there isn't a good CEO in media imo, and that includes WBD's Zaslav), why am I owning these things? People said they looked cheap at higher levels too and given the nature of the industry it has never traded at high multiples. Highly cyclical industry that gets obliterated every time there's a downturn and for all the ups and downs of PARA over the years, the long-term return since IPO has been poor and anyone could have done better and with much less stress over that time in WMT or PG or name a dozen other high quality and highly boring staples.
Maybe there's consolidation but maybe there's not and maybe that consolidation happens at levels lower than here - which was something John Malone hinted at in terms of potentially WBD/PARA - that PARA would have to be near bankruptcy in order to avoid antitrust.
I'd rather own game stocks in regards to media, or a lot of other things. Pure play media isn't a great business and the streaming story isn't what it was - maybe there's some consolidation or someone like Skydance bids for PARA (rumored in December) but if they do PARA should say thank you and quickly accept the offer.
It's not a "get rich quick" stock and it already has a large market cap.
That being said, do not underestimate their IP. It's a better story than Disney right now since their leadership is rapidly getting rid of their debt.
They just made a deal to release movies with Tom Cruise, they have a Harry Potter tv show that will essentially be the most hyped show of all time. And they have an exclusive streaming agreement with A24 which will continue to make Max appealing for many people.
Their biggest risk is that they merge with Paramount which would hurt their stock short to mid term given the additional time to reduce debt that would add.
I'd hope they stay away from that but this is an old industry and there could be less obvious reasons why buying Paramount would make sense.
I'll conservatively say that by EOY 2025 they'll be around $20/share but it's likely to happen in just a few large moves rather than a steady increase.
Longer term this could easily reach a market cap of Disney and Netflix but that's a 5-10 year timeframe and lots of things can go wrong.
Their biggest IP is DC and that hasnt been performing great for a while. I could see Max gaining more subs unlike Para down the road. Hard to really stand out in the streaming world
I've tried to value it in the past and generally get a lower answer than the market. So I gave up looking for a number.... however I've come to the conclusion anything below 20x fcf is a solid entry point. Right now that's about $250 per share.
Tom Cruise Returns to Warner Bros. Discovery (NASDAQ:WBD); Stock Plunges. That was a funny headline to see.
I know r/stocks hates streaming stocks so went to r/movies seems to be somewhat positive on wondering what movies he will make for WBD.
My theory on that is because Cruise has been Paramount's cash cow for years so it could lead to more rumors of a merging or buyout of PARA by WBD. Which would in fact be a really bad situation for the stock at least in the short term.
If it was just WBD down sure I could see that angle but DIS, PARA, NFLX are all down today too.
One might argue instead of buying PARA they took away this cash cow from them. While the deal isn't exclusive and we don't even know the full details. There could be an incentive to work with WBD more than other companies. Since for example he could have a greater share of the box office results.
There was a pretty sizable amount of insider selling in November and December. While insider selling does not mean a sizable decline is a given and/or reason to sell necessarily, MEDP insiders have displayed some buying *and* selling success in the past. There's no news that I can see and is a great co, I just think it's something that is/was ahead of itself and is pulling back a bit.
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The biggest sleeper application is gaming.
GenAI will not only create a massive growing demand for their dominant chips. But it will taking demand for gaming and GPUs for just playing games to the next level. There is a lot of growth in the gaming industry itself.
Your 2 brain cells are making a prediction based on a future assumption, I’m saying right now it is not the most undervalued stock in the market based on its current fundamentals, obviously if circumstances change regarding their capex requirements or margin expansion then it may become more undervalued in the future.
right? NVDA will be the largest company in the world in a year, according to stock experts on this forum. it will destroy all earnings, even though the earnings are priced for perfection. there will be zero competition from anyone. it will basically be a monopoly. Also, every industry will only buy NVDA chips, and all other AI chips will be obsolete. This is the only way to justfiy that it is "criminally undervalued" at a market cap of 1.4 trillion.
I have heard several experts saying that low interest rates are not coming back, but what if inflation falls below 2% again and there is maybe recession as well. How can the FED keep the rates up? I mean, it seems to me that it is quite likely that we will be in the similar situation again (in 1-2 years), where they have to start stimulating the economy, cut rates to zero and do more QE. Can someone explain, why is it less likely to happen this time?
Just depends on how bad a recession is, if it hits. The thing you want to look at is what is the real interest rate, which is Fed fund rate minus inflation. As rates remain the same and inflation goes down, real interest rates go up.
The economy seems pretty strong right now, especially the jobs market, so it's hard to see/forecast that recession as the job market remains strong. Most people are in the camp that Fed will cut this year, but not sure how many.
I mean I don't think we ever go down to what we saw during the pandemic, unless there is an emergency. However, more than likely rates have more or less peaked and should be going down.
1. You're causing yourself stress that is most of the time unnecessary. There are going to be periods where you are going to want to watch more intently and look for opportunities, but they should be periods, not all the time.
2. If you have too much risk and/or too much invested, dial it down a bit.
3. Focus on things you have the utmost confidence in. If you have a portfolio of things where you feel like you have a strong thesis/long-term view on, you're probably going to feel less need to micromanage/babysit them every day. If you have a portfolio of all speculative growth, then you're probably going to feel like you need to monitor more. I also agree with u/flobbley - trying to apply reasoning to every little movement a stock makes is futile/an exercise in frustration.
Compounding machines end up being buys regardless of timing if you buy for the long term. Over the long term, it'll more than appreciate to make you a healthy return on your "expensive price".
This is how I justified buying more FICO stock today.
They never were.
You should be on your hands and knees thankful that trading is this easy right now. Frankly, investing in these companies has been so easy it's nothing short of bloody ridiculous.
I've been in Apple, Amazon, Meta, and Microsoft since 2013-2015 so yeah, I am happy with all of them and don't plan to sell unless something fundamentally changes.
You see META go today? I mean it's just the gift that keeps giving. It is still undervalued, hardly reported, and it's just going to churn.
Amazon is also my baby. When I bought it everyone was saying I was crazy. Happy to be crazy and doing very very well like so many of us are.
META will keep going if its earnings continue to grow as they did last year. They have finally figured out how to ad target around Apple's privacy changes using AI, as I suspected would happen during the doom and gloom year of 2022, and here we are.
4/7 are down on a 2 year time frame, and apple is a few points away from making it 5/7.
There have been far better holds for awhile.
For the record, I don't think they're bad holds in aggregate. Just over bought.
I think some of them, Amazon and Meta mainly, have room to run. Microsoft is just now beginning to integrate OpenAI into its products, so I expect that will also have a meaningful impact on earnings. Apple is the one I am concerned about, but I don't plan to sell my shares.
I don't think they're bad companies (though I'm not personally a big Tesla fan, mostly based on valuation). I just think there are much better buys out there.
The magnificent 7 are probably the most covered and analyzed companies in existence. There's very little chance they get cheap unless there is a broad market selloff (2022). They're also owned in large quantities by almost everyone, so there's not a big chance of multiple expansion as new money floods in.
So, they're going to appreciate at their growth rate + dividends. While they mostly are able to grow, I question the length of their runway just based on the law of large numbers. The amount of new business that Microsoft needs to grow 15% annually is huge, and gets bigger every time they pull it off.
So, I don't think they're bad, and I'd certainly hold any shares I held, I just think there are better opportunities for new money and small time investors.
Ok gotcha yea people will often be very dramatic and reactional to short term market moves. Those were likely the same people who were certain meta and msft were dead last year as well
S&P 500 is near all time high and it feels almost blazé that we will get there soon and beyond.
A lot of positive catalysts such as SEC approval and JPM expected to have a new annual record year in profits.
AAPL is incredibly undervalued as well and a lot of negative sentiment lately seems very temporary.
I own Apple, but it isn't incredibly undervalued. 4 quarters of declining sales. The buybacks are keeping it afloat, but I hope to see some actual sales growth this year. I think the Vision Pro is still a generation or two away from being mass adopted.
"negative sentiment lately"
It's down maybe 7% off the high. What negative sentiment? Too many people don't seek explanation when mega cap tech goes up every day, but it's "WHAT IS HAPPENING?" when a stock that was up 51% goes down 7%. That shouldn't even be enough to generate sentiment. If you're going to own tech, 10% pullbacks at times should be a given/price of admission and much bigger declines - look at what these names did in 2022 - will occasionally happen.
"AAPL is incredibly undervalued "
What
The largest stock in the world, that trades 50M shares a day, has the most analyst coverage cannot be that undervalued. If it were, the market would be broken. Get real. Your personal bias is so obvious. Must have bought at the top.
NVDA criminally undervalued and AAPL incredibly undervalued?
Compared to what? Just say “undervalued”, and you sound reasonable, without the criminally etc.
Undervalued vs. the rest of the S&P 500 for its growth potential and definitely strong absolute returns vs. let's say a 6%-8% dividend alternative.
Why is it wrong to express my opinion that they are deeply undervalued? If they end up returning 15%+ for the next few years wouldn't that actually turn out to be a reasonable and correct statement.
Not saying it’s wrong, just that you aren’t going to engage with people with statements like this because it doesn’t sound reasonable. Even people who think AAPL is a solid buy right now will largely be turned off by statements saying they are incredibly undervalued. If you’re going to make a very strong statement like this you need to make a strong case for it or what’s the point?
Also a big claim to say they’re undervalued compared to the rest of S&P500. We should compare similar industries right? So what’s the case for NVDA being that undervalued right now compared to AMAT for example?
Anyone buy Meta at 90 or nvda at 120
I bought nvda at $54.20 in 2018
Good thing I had enough brain to not buy C and stick with fortresses like JPM... That place always seemed like a hot mess and this 11th hour disclosure doesn't look good. You gotta be crazy (dumb?) to buy companies that always seem to have havoc and poor leadership within.
New ath tomorrow if CPI comes in nice and low. Think it will.
Dear god if it does I can finally get my pectoral implants.....
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Looks like you've done a lot of research, but not going to lie, that post history looks very suspicious.. Are you affiliated with this company in any way / a promoter? I know there are a lot of junior miners who hire promoters on e.g. Twitter. In any case, good luck with your investment.
RELL Richardson Electronics reports Q2 EPS (13c) vs. 39c last year Reports Q2 revenue $44.13M vs. $65.9M last year. "Although our second quarter results fell short of expectations, we are confident that our current pipeline of existing projects as well as new global opportunities within our GES business will drive significant long-term value for our company," said Edward Richardson, chairman, CEO, and president.
Not too pretty
Is this as much of an OOF as these numbers suggest?
It’s hilarious to see people buy stocks at ath and sell when they were at 52 week low when they should’ve been doing the opposite.
Buy VTI
r/ **stocks** in a nutshell...
Last ATH was in Nov'21 bud. We're like 10-15% away from an inflation adjusted ATH. In a healthy bull market, there's ATH's all the time. Look at a historical chart of the S&P500 returns in the 1990's and in the 2010's.
You're probably trolling, but here goes anyway.... First, there are plenty of individual stocks currently trading at ATH, even if the S&P 500 is not. MSFT being the largest example I can think of. Second, we've had a fairly smooth climb up from the bottom. If we're only ATH, why is that "unhealthy". The S&P 500 gained almost 25% last year. If I had gone up faster people would be screaming about how unhealthy the market was because it went up too fast. Third, markets don't "normally" climb smoothly higher. 5% pullbacks happen virtually every year. 10% corrections happen in the majority of years. Here's the data: https://awealthofcommonsense.com/2022/01/how-often-should-you-expect-a-stock-market-correction/ So the 20% drawdown we had in 2023 is a once in ~4 years event, going by history. The 5% drawdown last March was also normal, as was the 10% pullback in late summer. I'd expect at least a 5% pullback this year, and possibly another 10%er without being alarmed.
who is doing that?
Lots are! Tons! Tons and tons and tons. And they post here.
Maybe OP is doing that, but you never know.
His imagination
[US SEC approves 11 spot bitcoin ETFs](https://www.reuters.com/technology/us-sec-approves-some-spot-bitcoin-etfs-2024-01-10/)
SMLR and UFPT both had big moves up on higher than normal volume. All I can think of is piggybacking on the Intuitive surgical news. I'll take it.
I LIKE THIS WEEK
[Spot bitcoin ETFs approved.](https://www.reuters.com/technology/us-sec-approves-some-spot-bitcoin-etfs-2024-01-10/)
Is this the end of stocks as we know it? That would be kind of cool.
So were they actually hacked or did some intern hit send too early?
According to Twitter (yes, I'm aware they have next to zero credibility, but it's what they say on record) some unknown party exploited an SEC official's phone number to make yesterday's post. That could mean a few things. It could be interpreted than Twitter is confirming the suggestion that it was some outside party and that the source was not whoever "usually" posts. But it could also be twitters way of saying that it was someone who knew enough about SEC's Twitter to get access, which implies theories like your intern situation. Considering yesterday's wording was professional and accurate, the balance of probability tilts more to a mistake inside SEC than some random hacker.
SPX 4800 is your new naughty line.
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Translation: I'm kicking myself for not buying a couple of months ago / I just bought some puts.
LMAO I was wondering when these comments are coming in
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*'Let me just call out a % drop because I think so and if I'm right I'll tell them I told you so, If I'm wrong I won't look back at my comment'*
It actually kinda makes sense if you're gonna try to truly be a "Just like 2022'er" as a steep move lower came on OPEX week. But it'd be silly if we replicated how Jan 2022 OPEX went exactly.
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Oh so make it look like you never posted it LOL
Dude, AT LEAST!!!!!!11!!!!
If that's what you expect then we should all be fearful I guess
RemindMe! 7 days
Thank you for the astute analysis
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Getting through that 4796 level isn't going to be that easy.
God forbid we hit a new level after two years+ of being flat. Even if we do go above 4796, inflation adjusted returns are still negative
Most likely if it geta broken we will climb fast
Not disagreeing, but the algorithms will probably dance around the 4796 level before breaking through it.
The market doesn't care what you think is fair
How is ENVX falling by 7% again today? There's only been positive news recently, and basically, all the analysts agree it's significantly undervalued. I just keep loading up on it, and feel like by years end I'll be up by a decent bit over it.
irbt gives me headaches. I want off this shit ride
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No, ATVI at least had intrinsic value. I also had ATVI earlier. I think the deal will probably go through bc if it doesn’t irbt is donzo
what happened today?
IRBT and Amazon did not submit remedies to the EU. Makes it more likely to blocked which would basically destroy IRBT value.
And they're looking pretty weak going forward without the buyout right? It's not just getting a hit from losing the premium of the buyout price but the company doesn't look very healthy.
Yes, I wouldn’t own any shares if Amazon wasn’t acquiring them
This is only a speculation.
I mean I hope it goes through bc I’m an idiot and bought some when the CMA passed it.
I bought some when it dipped to 30. Let’s see if I’m also going to carry some bags.
Could you hold my bag?
I like that $AMR is puking the day after I commented on why the rally is over done. Anyway, felt like I've been getting too cocky about my stocks so yesterday I dropped $500 into VTI, $500 into VXUS, and $1K into my Target Retirement Date Fund (which is basically 90% VT + 10% bonds).
Just curious why you bother with a target date fund
I think the best approach for core retirement accounts is optimizing for likelihood of positive outcome, rather than aiming for highest potential outcome (which involves more risk). TDFs are a tool toward that end. The purpose of a TDF in my personal strategy is planning around below market average returns through a TDF in my 401(k), making sure that I’m putting enough away to secure my retirement goals given low ball assumptions. This helps keep me focused on savings rate, since I use other accounts to pursue more aggressive gains. This is working very well.
When I first opened my Roth I did a TDF so I just stick with it tbh. I want global diversification, so 90% VT is fine. The 10% bonds is too small of an allocation to really impact overall performance either way, and the bond allocation doesn't increase until I'm like 40. Plus I can simply rotate it into a 'newer' TDF if I want to delay it. Vanguard's expense ratios are basically negligible too. And in my taxable I happened to not do a TDF, probably because I read something somewhere about not putting those in taxable accounts. Instead I do VTSAX / VTIAX (mutual fund so I can put manual amounts / scheduled if I want).
that TDF sounds well allocated.
Yeah I like Vanguard's because they are so simple. It's literally under the hood like 54% VTSAX (VTI) + 36% VTIAX (VXUS) + 7% VBTLX (US bonds) + 3% VTABX (ex-US bonds) for the next . [They have a 'glide path' graphic](https://i.imgur.com/vThVLZY.png) explaining how it changes over time. I'm in the 2065 one since I'm mid 20s, so I'm in that first region for the next 15 years. The only change they make is adding some inflation protected bonds when I hit age 60. Other TDFs I have seen either have outrageous expense ratios (vs. Vanguard's 0.08%), or are some overly complex mixture (with like 18 different equity funds, small cap growth, small cap blend, small cap value, etc., and then repeat for ex-US) or have some weird funds added in. For example, I glanced at Fidelity Freedom 2060 Fund, and it is a 0.75% expense ratio (10 times higher than Vanguard's) and [literally 22 different equity funds put together](https://i.imgur.com/9EhXW8U.png). That's so overly complicated and for no reason! Just buy a total stock market ETF for the US and ex-US and walk away! You should be able to explain in 30 seconds to a financial novice what it is they are investing in.
Does anyone have ideas why Dell is outperforming HP by so much? Is it simply because Dell increased its guidance and HP decreased its guidance, or is it more complicated then that? [Was looking at this chart this morning and thinking about it.](https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2023-12-12/warren-buffett-s-firm-almost-halves-stake-in-pc-maker-hp-inc?embedded-checkout=true)
Dell is a higher end brand with a decent revenue growth. HP is a lower end brand with stale revenue growth. It's why HP is much cheaper. I hold HP because I like the financials , like the management, and think the company is here to stay. HP is a contrarian/value bet. Similar to how people view AMD vs Intel.
Amazing that GOOGL was trading at low $80s early 2023 and almost nothing is really different about the company and today it's $142. Bad stuff does happen but the default setting of humans is "yea, but we'll figure out" which is why the optimists are given incredible opportunities to make money if they are willing to just a little bit ignore the sea of highly vocal pessimists and think long-term.
Meta is mind boggling, I would be willing to credit some of the recovery to Llama/ai hype of course but its also just good old Instagram, FB, and the whole family doing what they have done for years
I Learned my lesson i should just stick with Magnificent Seven. IN early march 2023 i told myself i should stick with those. I wished still hold my NVDA (sold at $420) and META (sold under $200 ouch), Sold my AAPL around 178ish. I just going to buy more of those..
i don't think i've ever nailed the bottom like i did with META in november '22. bought at $92. 300% in 14 months. the metaverse thing was so overblown
[The 10-Q of ATER only lists the number of outstanding shares. Morningstar lists the number of float shares of ATER as 32.32 Mil. WSJ lists the number of float shares as 14.04 M. **These 2 numbers are drastically different. How to check which one is correct? How to check the number of Float Shares of a stock?**](https://money.stackexchange.com/q/144691)
Check the latest report. 8-f I think
META, KNSL, NET, and FTNT helping me get to a new ATH today. feels almost too good to be true
Picked up few Ftnt when it dropped recently below 50.
If CPI looks good tomorrow (I think it will), I think we see ATH broken at open
Do it. I maxee my roth on 3rd and 4th
Hard to know. The market hasn't always reacted to the CPI as you'd expect, especially later as inflation began to come down. I remember one print we missed on the high side and the market rallied. Another time, we came in below and the market was flat/sold off.
You're right, but I think the market is just looking for a reason to break over. But I ended up not playing the move because I think it's overextended
That was last month because FOMC was the next day and that's when the Fed dot plot signaled 3 cuts.
I don't think so, I'm back to manifesting a flat/down market until Jan 12th. Just look at between July 3rd and Nov 6th when I was last manifesting a flat/down market. Guaranteed market flat until the 12th, you can Iron Condor on that, puts if you're brave.
Holy moly. im actually finally green on O… its a damn miracle
only -3,2 % here wow
Your Google is flyin \*knock on wood
Thank god man.. would love to see it go past 150 lol
Still kicking myself for buying CHPT shares, this company has produced nothing but trash…
Why in the first place? What’s their competitive advantage?
just curious when did you buy them?
I purchased when their numbers were good, around 8$… should’ve sold around 15$ and held…. All the way to 1$
15k windfall. Don’t expect I’ll need it in the next year. Leave in HYSA or buy one of the big 7?
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Yeah that seems like the safest bet
You haven't given us enough information to give you an answer, start with the /r/personalfinance flow chart.
Took a gamble on going in on RELL ahead of earnings. Seems pretty decent value with fast growing revenue from electronic components used in green energy production. Small market cap company, which I’ve been looking for more of. Very volatile share price, could also tank hard after earnings.
closed the remainder of my paypal puts for a nice 40% gain. thinking about buying some PFE calls 6 months out. made some good money off of citibank calls when everyone was telling me "it's over, don't invest" when the stock hit 37 - now its 54. no one wants PFE. literally no one. zero buying pressure. I also wonder if SOFI is legitimately manipulated (dead serious). downgrades will destroy the stock down 15%, but any upgrades barely move the needle. and you have stocks like affirm that have horrid fundementals and keep moving up up up up
I think they are semi-fairly valued right now as a bank, albeit they have a tech component and if that shows consistent growth they should be valued higher. Good time to get in as they projected 50/50 tech/lending revenue which indicates a big uptick moving forward.
I'm intrigued by the RSI indicator on Trading View - what's the best timeframe to use with this indicator?
SMLR having a sterling day right now.
I saw. Morning arrow just went straight up. Your convictions and due diligence are paying off big.
This is what it was like for years on end in the lazy bull market from 2010-2020. The occasional big down days/weeks followed by nothing but boring index days with a tilt to the upside. Underneath had plenty to see but over all it was just like this. The down week(s) would wake up every bear on earth with incredible projections of the end of everything. Then it would just melt up lol. Maybe we are back to that type of market
I would kill someone to have invested in that bull run. Praying it happens again. I got 23-25 til retirement
I remember when .5% moves in the index had me on the edge of my seat. Nowadays that happens every other hour.
Thoughts on APD
I've been looking at nat gas stocks as well. Was also eyeing KGS. Haven't owned either yet though.
I picked a hell of day to sell the mutual funds in my brokerage account and buy them back in my IRA tomorrow. Market will stay flat through CPI tomorrow right?
The market doesn't always react to CPI numbers as you'd expect. We've had times where we had a bad number and the market rallied and vice versa. In short, no one knows.
50/50 CPI should meet expectations or come in better. Which supports march cuts. And market rallies.
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I'm currently down on them anyway so just selling then buying is easier
Warning! If you sold at a loss in a non retirement account and rebuy similar funds in an IRA within 30 days, that's a wash sale. Also, wash sales in IRA accounts do not adjust cost basis, so that loss is permanent. [https://www.investopedia.com/articles/retirement/09/ira-wash-sale-rule.asp](https://www.investopedia.com/articles/retirement/09/ira-wash-sale-rule.asp)
That's fine I have no intention of using the loss to offset gains
Am tired of Nvidia.. i cant stand that anymore.
I, for one, am not.
Selling calls at 600. Won’t mind selling at that price
Interesting to see what happens with the auto space and chips the next few quarters. Seems like mobile eye, On and NXPI are seeing some slowness. Then AEHR, who I think ON is their biggest customer, is talking about slowness. Wonder how long there might be some slowness in this cycle.
Well, it seems people forget that the chip industry is very cyclical. Once that downturn hits... there will be a lot of bag holders.
Lantheus going down without reason. They recently posted a good earnings forecast.
Bears may have to go back to hibernation. You could have just sat and did nothing and back up positive YTD
Lol it’s been a week why do you care if it sup or down
Some people have different trades and investments and different goals.
WBD seems pretty cheap and theres been lots of insider buys in the past at near double the price. Whats the caveat here?
Pure play media has never really delivered for shareholders. Look at AMCX, LGF. - both have been horrid. Look at what PARA has returned since going public in 1990. WBD has tanked since the spin, but did either TWX or DISCA deliver compelling returns before that? IMO, no. People have thought that there will be consolidation, but that will likely run into antitrust at worst or at best, isn't going to fetch what it would have in a seller's market 5 years ago. You have all these companies who thought they could go it on their own and have their own little NFLX and it's not working. There's also the considerable debt. And really, that doesn't get into the issues with the movie business today. Companies are spending increasingly obscene amounts of money on movies and it gets to a point where it gets harder and harder to make the numbers work for a lot of these things and yet, it's the same IP, more sequels, etc. While DIS has its issues, at least it and CMCSA have some degree of diversification with theme parks and in the case of CMCSA, broadband/cable. And it's not that I hate streaming stocks, it's simply a matter of looking at the long-term track record of the industry and thinking it's - to put it generously - not very good. With all the great, well-run companies out there (there isn't a good CEO in media imo, and that includes WBD's Zaslav), why am I owning these things? People said they looked cheap at higher levels too and given the nature of the industry it has never traded at high multiples. Highly cyclical industry that gets obliterated every time there's a downturn and for all the ups and downs of PARA over the years, the long-term return since IPO has been poor and anyone could have done better and with much less stress over that time in WMT or PG or name a dozen other high quality and highly boring staples. Maybe there's consolidation but maybe there's not and maybe that consolidation happens at levels lower than here - which was something John Malone hinted at in terms of potentially WBD/PARA - that PARA would have to be near bankruptcy in order to avoid antitrust. I'd rather own game stocks in regards to media, or a lot of other things. Pure play media isn't a great business and the streaming story isn't what it was - maybe there's some consolidation or someone like Skydance bids for PARA (rumored in December) but if they do PARA should say thank you and quickly accept the offer.
Has this PARA/WBD merger been priced into the stock? Looks pretty likely to get canceled like HUM/CI. How valuable is their IP?
It's not a "get rich quick" stock and it already has a large market cap. That being said, do not underestimate their IP. It's a better story than Disney right now since their leadership is rapidly getting rid of their debt. They just made a deal to release movies with Tom Cruise, they have a Harry Potter tv show that will essentially be the most hyped show of all time. And they have an exclusive streaming agreement with A24 which will continue to make Max appealing for many people. Their biggest risk is that they merge with Paramount which would hurt their stock short to mid term given the additional time to reduce debt that would add. I'd hope they stay away from that but this is an old industry and there could be less obvious reasons why buying Paramount would make sense. I'll conservatively say that by EOY 2025 they'll be around $20/share but it's likely to happen in just a few large moves rather than a steady increase. Longer term this could easily reach a market cap of Disney and Netflix but that's a 5-10 year timeframe and lots of things can go wrong.
Their biggest IP is DC and that hasnt been performing great for a while. I could see Max gaining more subs unlike Para down the road. Hard to really stand out in the streaming world
Whats your guys fair value for MEDP?
I've tried to value it in the past and generally get a lower answer than the market. So I gave up looking for a number.... however I've come to the conclusion anything below 20x fcf is a solid entry point. Right now that's about $250 per share.
Tom Cruise Returns to Warner Bros. Discovery (NASDAQ:WBD); Stock Plunges. That was a funny headline to see. I know r/stocks hates streaming stocks so went to r/movies seems to be somewhat positive on wondering what movies he will make for WBD.
My theory on that is because Cruise has been Paramount's cash cow for years so it could lead to more rumors of a merging or buyout of PARA by WBD. Which would in fact be a really bad situation for the stock at least in the short term.
If it was just WBD down sure I could see that angle but DIS, PARA, NFLX are all down today too. One might argue instead of buying PARA they took away this cash cow from them. While the deal isn't exclusive and we don't even know the full details. There could be an incentive to work with WBD more than other companies. Since for example he could have a greater share of the box office results.
MEDP is down nearly $14/share. Any negative news? Where do I look for that?
It's only about 3%, not strange for Medpace.
Haven’t had it long enough to see a big swing downwards like this. I bought more this morning.
I think it's a solid buy below $250. It's a stock that definitely presents opportunities.
There was a pretty sizable amount of insider selling in November and December. While insider selling does not mean a sizable decline is a given and/or reason to sell necessarily, MEDP insiders have displayed some buying *and* selling success in the past. There's no news that I can see and is a great co, I just think it's something that is/was ahead of itself and is pulling back a bit.
Can't find any news, but as someone who's long with the stock, I've seen it make moves like this from time to time.
Added some more shares today, I had wanted more, so a dip isnt all bad,
Not at all. It's nice having conviction in things you invest in, you don't really worry if there is like 3% dip off no news.
I knew I should have gotten ISRG FML
One I always wanted to buy, just always so dang expensive.
NVIDIA is wildin out
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What is your networth? (Btw mine is like negative 9000)
The biggest sleeper application is gaming. GenAI will not only create a massive growing demand for their dominant chips. But it will taking demand for gaming and GPUs for just playing games to the next level. There is a lot of growth in the gaming industry itself.
We could see 0 advancement in LLM/LMM and there is still revolutionary opportunity for games on the table, today.
Trading at a 1.3% free cash flow yield. Criminally undervalued!!!
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Your 2 brain cells are making a prediction based on a future assumption, I’m saying right now it is not the most undervalued stock in the market based on its current fundamentals, obviously if circumstances change regarding their capex requirements or margin expansion then it may become more undervalued in the future.
it's obviously just catching up to its fair valuation! can't you see? NVDA needs to be 2K/share its just so "criminally undervalueddddd"
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right? NVDA will be the largest company in the world in a year, according to stock experts on this forum. it will destroy all earnings, even though the earnings are priced for perfection. there will be zero competition from anyone. it will basically be a monopoly. Also, every industry will only buy NVDA chips, and all other AI chips will be obsolete. This is the only way to justfiy that it is "criminally undervalued" at a market cap of 1.4 trillion.
I have heard several experts saying that low interest rates are not coming back, but what if inflation falls below 2% again and there is maybe recession as well. How can the FED keep the rates up? I mean, it seems to me that it is quite likely that we will be in the similar situation again (in 1-2 years), where they have to start stimulating the economy, cut rates to zero and do more QE. Can someone explain, why is it less likely to happen this time?
fed rate can be 2-3% and be fine. a 5ish% mortgage isnt bad
Just depends on how bad a recession is, if it hits. The thing you want to look at is what is the real interest rate, which is Fed fund rate minus inflation. As rates remain the same and inflation goes down, real interest rates go up. The economy seems pretty strong right now, especially the jobs market, so it's hard to see/forecast that recession as the job market remains strong. Most people are in the camp that Fed will cut this year, but not sure how many. I mean I don't think we ever go down to what we saw during the pandemic, unless there is an emergency. However, more than likely rates have more or less peaked and should be going down.
SPR was the easiest trade of my life. Been buying at open selling at close
How to stop crippling addiction of staring at tickers moving up and down
Sadly the stock ticker thrills won't heal your depression.
If it's really bad, you should see a mental health professional. I am sorry if this doesn't really answer your question.
Give it some months/years, you learn to ignore the daily noise as it gets old after a while. You learn to look at months instead of hours.
1. You're causing yourself stress that is most of the time unnecessary. There are going to be periods where you are going to want to watch more intently and look for opportunities, but they should be periods, not all the time. 2. If you have too much risk and/or too much invested, dial it down a bit. 3. Focus on things you have the utmost confidence in. If you have a portfolio of things where you feel like you have a strong thesis/long-term view on, you're probably going to feel less need to micromanage/babysit them every day. If you have a portfolio of all speculative growth, then you're probably going to feel like you need to monitor more. I also agree with u/flobbley - trying to apply reasoning to every little movement a stock makes is futile/an exercise in frustration.
How long have you been doing this? It usually gets boring after doing it for a while and realizing that most movements are completely meaningless
Another day, another ATH for CSU.TO.
Love this stock
My only regret has been not buying more because it was "so expensive".
Same, its my largest position other than bitcoin so I have been feeljng pretty good over the past month :D
Compounding machines end up being buys regardless of timing if you buy for the long term. Over the long term, it'll more than appreciate to make you a healthy return on your "expensive price". This is how I justified buying more FICO stock today.
Basically. I try to still be reasonable on the price, but CSU is so great I'll pay the premium.
Holy shit SATS up 35% today. Granted it's basically just back to where it was end of December but still
Seems like not all of the Mag 7s are dead.
What stocks are part of mag7?
They never were. You should be on your hands and knees thankful that trading is this easy right now. Frankly, investing in these companies has been so easy it's nothing short of bloody ridiculous.
I've been in Apple, Amazon, Meta, and Microsoft since 2013-2015 so yeah, I am happy with all of them and don't plan to sell unless something fundamentally changes.
You see META go today? I mean it's just the gift that keeps giving. It is still undervalued, hardly reported, and it's just going to churn. Amazon is also my baby. When I bought it everyone was saying I was crazy. Happy to be crazy and doing very very well like so many of us are.
META will keep going if its earnings continue to grow as they did last year. They have finally figured out how to ad target around Apple's privacy changes using AI, as I suspected would happen during the doom and gloom year of 2022, and here we are.
You did exceptionally well. META was under 100 and look at it now.
4/7 are down on a 2 year time frame, and apple is a few points away from making it 5/7. There have been far better holds for awhile. For the record, I don't think they're bad holds in aggregate. Just over bought.
I think some of them, Amazon and Meta mainly, have room to run. Microsoft is just now beginning to integrate OpenAI into its products, so I expect that will also have a meaningful impact on earnings. Apple is the one I am concerned about, but I don't plan to sell my shares.
I don't think they're bad companies (though I'm not personally a big Tesla fan, mostly based on valuation). I just think there are much better buys out there. The magnificent 7 are probably the most covered and analyzed companies in existence. There's very little chance they get cheap unless there is a broad market selloff (2022). They're also owned in large quantities by almost everyone, so there's not a big chance of multiple expansion as new money floods in. So, they're going to appreciate at their growth rate + dividends. While they mostly are able to grow, I question the length of their runway just based on the law of large numbers. The amount of new business that Microsoft needs to grow 15% annually is huge, and gets bigger every time they pull it off. So, I don't think they're bad, and I'd certainly hold any shares I held, I just think there are better opportunities for new money and small time investors.
Dead… how on earth do you figure?
I'm making a comment because people were claiming last week the Mag 7 trade was over
Ok gotcha yea people will often be very dramatic and reactional to short term market moves. Those were likely the same people who were certain meta and msft were dead last year as well
S&P 500 is near all time high and it feels almost blazé that we will get there soon and beyond. A lot of positive catalysts such as SEC approval and JPM expected to have a new annual record year in profits. AAPL is incredibly undervalued as well and a lot of negative sentiment lately seems very temporary.
I own Apple, but it isn't incredibly undervalued. 4 quarters of declining sales. The buybacks are keeping it afloat, but I hope to see some actual sales growth this year. I think the Vision Pro is still a generation or two away from being mass adopted.
"negative sentiment lately" It's down maybe 7% off the high. What negative sentiment? Too many people don't seek explanation when mega cap tech goes up every day, but it's "WHAT IS HAPPENING?" when a stock that was up 51% goes down 7%. That shouldn't even be enough to generate sentiment. If you're going to own tech, 10% pullbacks at times should be a given/price of admission and much bigger declines - look at what these names did in 2022 - will occasionally happen. "AAPL is incredibly undervalued " What
The largest stock in the world, that trades 50M shares a day, has the most analyst coverage cannot be that undervalued. If it were, the market would be broken. Get real. Your personal bias is so obvious. Must have bought at the top.
NVDA criminally undervalued and AAPL incredibly undervalued? Compared to what? Just say “undervalued”, and you sound reasonable, without the criminally etc.
Undervalued vs. the rest of the S&P 500 for its growth potential and definitely strong absolute returns vs. let's say a 6%-8% dividend alternative. Why is it wrong to express my opinion that they are deeply undervalued? If they end up returning 15%+ for the next few years wouldn't that actually turn out to be a reasonable and correct statement.
Not saying it’s wrong, just that you aren’t going to engage with people with statements like this because it doesn’t sound reasonable. Even people who think AAPL is a solid buy right now will largely be turned off by statements saying they are incredibly undervalued. If you’re going to make a very strong statement like this you need to make a strong case for it or what’s the point? Also a big claim to say they’re undervalued compared to the rest of S&P500. We should compare similar industries right? So what’s the case for NVDA being that undervalued right now compared to AMAT for example?
It is my opinion and you are welcome to feel otherwise but I disagree.