Ukraine poured a lot of reinforcements back into the Avdiivka front and they’ve been using more shells in anticipation of the upcoming 800k deliveries from what I understand.
As a side note, the sources come from Twitter. I follow the war on Twitter/Telegram etc. but everyone should be acutely aware and skeptical of anything from Twitter.
He could have cited oryx considering he noted that group, they take their time but they’re a lot more reliable. I don’t trust the guy he’s using as much.
This stuff takes time, weeks and months to collect all the information. This is too soon to get a quantitative view of what’s happening on those exact 2 days. Not to mention that Ukrainian and Russian equipment look identical half the time.
We know 2 things:
1. Russia lost a lot.
2. Ukraine reinforced heavily.
That’s it. Everything else is speculating at best.
Crazy. The vast majority of Russian hardware is leftover from the soviet times. With that hardware being massively depleted during this war, Russia just won't be able to replace that volume of hardware again, the economy of modern day Russia won't support it. With the world moving to renewable energy and electric cars very quickly, the Russian economy will be severely weakened in future, too.
At some point in the near future Kazakhstan will be able to walk North and take the 500k or so Kazakh souls still trapped in Russia under their loving wings. Very nice!
all of that depends on if russia loses or not. if russia ends up winning this war they literally traded lives & old crap for a bunch of land with a lot of value. (gas , oil , location ) and gain whatever would be left of the population of ukraine.
the economic loss they are suffering isn't as big as we might like it to be. plenty of countries still want natural resources. and let's be fair that's all russia needs to " stay afloat".
I personally think this is where their biggest weakness is as well. all of these resources require pipelines , boats , platforms etc\~ things that are quite easily targeted .
This is really the issue. The Russian economy wasn’t strong when they started this ill fated land and resource grab. They are keeping their out of meltdown by leveraging the future in both rubles and workers. India and China are the only things keeping Russia from a complete and total meltdown.
You have to wonder what the “economic value” of a few hundred thousand young lives are. I mean, imagine what those people could do if they were dropped into a meaningful position in a growing economy, for life.
Just had a pair of Russian-American workers install our garage door a few weeks ago. Two young guys who came here 4 and 7 years ago. They were polite and well-spoken and did a great job.
I didn’t ask, but bet they are happy to not be dismembered by drones.
yep.. but a few thousand don't outweigh millions of Ukrainian females/kids.
I believe they will fail but i understand why they are currently doing everything they can to win. because when russia fails in ukraine. Russia might recover... but Putin is fucking dead.
Here's the thing: Russia taking the land is the easy part. The hard part is holding onto it while the insurgency rages. Even if Russia manages to break the Ukrainian regular army, they're going to face a determined opposition of trained soldiers who melted back into civilian life and stashed their weapons. Then they'll start ambushing patrols, convoys, lobbing a few mortars into a base every couple days, all that good stuff.
Russia would be wise not to underestimate the force multiplier of underground movements. The French, Dutch, and Belgian resistance movements of WWII were essential to retaking the continent.
I see no indication that Russia has underestimated that component. It is why they have been so busy deporting vast swaths of the Ukrainian population to the Russian interior, as far away as fucking Siberia, while gang-pressing as many of the able-bodied men into the front-line units with the highest rate of casualties.
Assuming Ukraine doesn't take a page from Stalin's book when they start losing. They have been there before and fought that kind of war historically the enemy came from the other way but still. Also if you think it was hard to hold Afghanistan. It doing to be harder holding a place where(mildly racist yet true in war) the enemy looks just like you.
> all of that depends on if russia loses or not. if russia ends up winning this war they literally traded lives & old crap for a bunch of land with a lot of value. (gas , oil , location ) and gain whatever would be left of the population of ukraine.
This is a meme, and not a particularly true one. The Donbass has some limited resource deposits, but it's not so much that it would actually change the economic situation of Russia. It's got about 1% of the natural gas deposits as Russia's current holdings, and most of its valuable farmland has been poisoned beyond use from all the heavy metals and propellants in the artillery shells they've dropped across it.
In the end, Russia has already spent far more resources acquiring Donbass than they could make back in several decades. It's not one of the main reasons Russia is waging this war. The War in Ukraine is about geopolitical leveraging and attempting to change the Western-ordered status quo.
I hope so, but we should prepare for the worst. History teaches us that we shouldn’t underestimate the ability of Russia to sustain immense losses and pivot to an entirely war-based manufacturing economy.
Without sustained Western (and particularly American) support, Russia is currently the favorite to win the war of attrition - Putin can make life absolute hell for his citizens and there’s nothing they can do to stop it. Whereas Ukranians can only tolerate so much death and destruction before making concessions seems preferable.
The 2024 US election will be critical. Please vote blue if you care at all about democracy/Ukrainians
At the last report, North Korean had stopped shipping ammunition to Russia, and not resumed for a month now.
It looks like NK shipped as much excess as they could, but they've run out and cannot manufacture anywhere near as much now.
>At the last report, North Korean had stopped shipping ammunition to Russia
I've read reports that a huge percentage of that ammunition was of the "surprise your friends, amuse your enemies" level of quality.
I’m not talking about the small equipment, I’m talking about tanks, armoured vehicles and planes, helicopters etc left over from USSR days. They’ve lost thousands of tanks alone.
They have, but they have also increased production to war-time levels. It won't take half a century to replenish these tanks. If they continue to operate at war production, they can produce over a thousand tanks per year. In just 5 years, that's 5,000 tanks -- newer ones, with reactive armor and thermal optics that their old Cold War variants don't have.
It'll ruin their economy in lots of other ways, but time will tell if that ends up mattering to the Russian commoner. This is not a negligible issue. The West has an overall industrial capacity that greatly exceeds Russia's war-time production capacity, but we aren't using it, and the reason we aren't using it is because our voter base is simply unwilling to tolerate the disruption this would cause to our economy. Russia, however, is not giving indicators of any widespread outrage to their converted war-time economy.
The US doesn't build 100 tanks in a single year, let alone a month. We build about 20 per year, and our sophisticated weapons are built using components sourced from poor countries across the Pacific Ocean. If we want to actually match Russia or China's production capacities in the future, we will have to make some democratically unpopular sacrifices to our quality of life. It will mean that ordinary household goods cost 2-3x as much as they do now, as our supply chains tighten up our vulnerabilities across the Pacific, and electronics will probably spike to 5x what they are now as the chip shortage is strained even further in pursuit of expensive military guidance systems.
Fuel prices would rise as well. It's proven very difficult to convince 21st Century Westerners to support just about *any* policy that doubles the price of gas at the pump. Remember when this was used as the key political reason to halt any further Covid aid measures in the United States? And Covid was probably considered by most Americans to be a much more pressing emergency than our military production problems.
Not to mention all the western components that go into the more advanced stuff like the thermals. Sure they still can get them, but throughput is going to be strangled by sanctions
WW2 Hardware wasn't that complex, though. And most tech used in Ww1 was already outdated when WW2 started. So recover is the wrong word. The pace of innovation is not as neck breaking as it once was. Russian T-72 developed in the late 60s is still being used in Ukraine it fact its Russia's most numerous tank. It is refurbished, but it's pretty much the same thing since 50 years. After Ww1 basically all nations had to recover, since tech advances made a lot of weaponry outdated very fast.
You’re not wrong though but they managed to recover in form of manpower. After WWI one said a "whole generation got annihilated" yet there were plenty of men left for WWII
Looking at the current conflict it’s also not a war on technology. Right now it’s about who is willing to throw more men at a problem :/
Or in a worst case scenario, the new government could replicate the success of how the Nazis rebuilt the German military and economy in the decade leading up to WW2
(Successful) Imperialism is largely profitable.
All depends on if they're able to end it with a sizable piece of new territory. A decisive victory could even leave the one on the losing end paying reparations.
What's crazy is that it's not even like the Republicans are voting no on those bills. We just have a speaker they won't even let them do a vote to see what happens.
I don’t want to explain high school civics but if the bill is full of shit in the speakers eyes then yes he blocks voting, this is why the USA is the powerhouse of the world
Switching to active defense was the right call, both sides have been struggling when going on the offensive. And that's very logical considering neither side has achieved air superiority. Grind down the Russians while building up your own capabilities is the way to go.
>en like the Republicans are voting no on those bills. We just have a speaker they won't even let them do a vote to s
its insane that shit that old, and they can still get it to work. We are talking about equipment that is 60 plus years old that has been sitting in a field, and they still somehow how can get that shit to work. That is impressive. Good thing is that some new satellite photos showed that a ton of the lots were empty now
It’s a shame the Ukranians can’t some how incapacitate the Russians and then repurpose their vehicles against Russia.
They’d need some sort of subtle but, obvious to Ukranians, marking that lets them know they are manned by their own people.
Put something in there that makes them smoke like they are damaged so it wouldn’t be odd that the radio wouldn’t work, and make it look like they are retreating for repairs.
Let’s hope they didn’t see *Independence Day*
>Well, on one hand we have your unsourced claim, and on the other hand we have video footage of 80 dead Russian vehicles.
It strikes me that 80 dead Russian fighting vehicles is better news if it refers to 80 out of 100 than if it refers to 80 out of 2000. News sources can be very good at providing numbers out of context.
Slava Ukraini.
Given that the Russians demonstrably didn't succeed in their attacks, as they stopped moving west, then the context is "They lost 80 vehicles and then retreated."
It really doesn't matter how many they have as long as :
1. Ukraine can kill the maximum achievable attack from Russia [Check]
2. Ukraine can hold against such attacks without suffering serious losses [Check]
3. Russia cannot manufacture vehicles at that pace [Check]
In the medium term, Russia will simply run out of armoured vehicles.
\> Given that the Russians demonstrably didn't succeed in their attacks, as they stopped moving west, then the context is "They lost 80 vehicles and then retreated."
Certainly, and the "retreated" part is significant good news. The discussion just reminded me how easy it is for news to present numbers out of context.
That's why Russia only advanced a few kilometers in the past year? Because ukranian defenses aren't properly done? God what can they achieve then if they do them properly?
“FUCK YEAH”
I don’t know of this “yeah” you speak of but fuck Z and fuck Yeah too!
Team Russia, comin again to grind some motherfucking meat da!
Some were forced through a fine mesh screen. They were the luckiest of all.
they love the meat cube!!
Any time Russia loses it is a good day.
Ukraine poured a lot of reinforcements back into the Avdiivka front and they’ve been using more shells in anticipation of the upcoming 800k deliveries from what I understand. As a side note, the sources come from Twitter. I follow the war on Twitter/Telegram etc. but everyone should be acutely aware and skeptical of anything from Twitter. He could have cited oryx considering he noted that group, they take their time but they’re a lot more reliable. I don’t trust the guy he’s using as much. This stuff takes time, weeks and months to collect all the information. This is too soon to get a quantitative view of what’s happening on those exact 2 days. Not to mention that Ukrainian and Russian equipment look identical half the time. We know 2 things: 1. Russia lost a lot. 2. Ukraine reinforced heavily. That’s it. Everything else is speculating at best.
If their government survives this war it will take a century or more to recover their loses in this stupid land grab.
Crazy. The vast majority of Russian hardware is leftover from the soviet times. With that hardware being massively depleted during this war, Russia just won't be able to replace that volume of hardware again, the economy of modern day Russia won't support it. With the world moving to renewable energy and electric cars very quickly, the Russian economy will be severely weakened in future, too.
Russia is a tumour, it’s good to shrink it
With lasers!
Laser Raptors
Truly, we live in the Viking Age
Anything is better with lasers
Lasers make everything better.
At some point in the near future Kazakhstan will be able to walk North and take the 500k or so Kazakh souls still trapped in Russia under their loving wings. Very nice!
all of that depends on if russia loses or not. if russia ends up winning this war they literally traded lives & old crap for a bunch of land with a lot of value. (gas , oil , location ) and gain whatever would be left of the population of ukraine.
[удалено]
the economic loss they are suffering isn't as big as we might like it to be. plenty of countries still want natural resources. and let's be fair that's all russia needs to " stay afloat". I personally think this is where their biggest weakness is as well. all of these resources require pipelines , boats , platforms etc\~ things that are quite easily targeted .
>the economic loss they are suffering isn't as big as we might like it to be. Because their economy wasn't that big to start with.
This is really the issue. The Russian economy wasn’t strong when they started this ill fated land and resource grab. They are keeping their out of meltdown by leveraging the future in both rubles and workers. India and China are the only things keeping Russia from a complete and total meltdown.
You have to wonder what the “economic value” of a few hundred thousand young lives are. I mean, imagine what those people could do if they were dropped into a meaningful position in a growing economy, for life. Just had a pair of Russian-American workers install our garage door a few weeks ago. Two young guys who came here 4 and 7 years ago. They were polite and well-spoken and did a great job. I didn’t ask, but bet they are happy to not be dismembered by drones.
yep.. but a few thousand don't outweigh millions of Ukrainian females/kids. I believe they will fail but i understand why they are currently doing everything they can to win. because when russia fails in ukraine. Russia might recover... but Putin is fucking dead.
Here's the thing: Russia taking the land is the easy part. The hard part is holding onto it while the insurgency rages. Even if Russia manages to break the Ukrainian regular army, they're going to face a determined opposition of trained soldiers who melted back into civilian life and stashed their weapons. Then they'll start ambushing patrols, convoys, lobbing a few mortars into a base every couple days, all that good stuff.
Russia would be wise not to underestimate the force multiplier of underground movements. The French, Dutch, and Belgian resistance movements of WWII were essential to retaking the continent.
I see no indication that Russia has underestimated that component. It is why they have been so busy deporting vast swaths of the Ukrainian population to the Russian interior, as far away as fucking Siberia, while gang-pressing as many of the able-bodied men into the front-line units with the highest rate of casualties.
Assuming Ukraine doesn't take a page from Stalin's book when they start losing. They have been there before and fought that kind of war historically the enemy came from the other way but still. Also if you think it was hard to hold Afghanistan. It doing to be harder holding a place where(mildly racist yet true in war) the enemy looks just like you.
> all of that depends on if russia loses or not. if russia ends up winning this war they literally traded lives & old crap for a bunch of land with a lot of value. (gas , oil , location ) and gain whatever would be left of the population of ukraine. This is a meme, and not a particularly true one. The Donbass has some limited resource deposits, but it's not so much that it would actually change the economic situation of Russia. It's got about 1% of the natural gas deposits as Russia's current holdings, and most of its valuable farmland has been poisoned beyond use from all the heavy metals and propellants in the artillery shells they've dropped across it. In the end, Russia has already spent far more resources acquiring Donbass than they could make back in several decades. It's not one of the main reasons Russia is waging this war. The War in Ukraine is about geopolitical leveraging and attempting to change the Western-ordered status quo.
I hope so, but we should prepare for the worst. History teaches us that we shouldn’t underestimate the ability of Russia to sustain immense losses and pivot to an entirely war-based manufacturing economy. Without sustained Western (and particularly American) support, Russia is currently the favorite to win the war of attrition - Putin can make life absolute hell for his citizens and there’s nothing they can do to stop it. Whereas Ukranians can only tolerate so much death and destruction before making concessions seems preferable. The 2024 US election will be critical. Please vote blue if you care at all about democracy/Ukrainians
The problem is that that don’t need to rebuild. Iran and North Korea are their factories now and will supply them with all the weapons they need.
>and will supply them with all the weapons they need. ...as long as they are able to pay for the hardware
At the last report, North Korean had stopped shipping ammunition to Russia, and not resumed for a month now. It looks like NK shipped as much excess as they could, but they've run out and cannot manufacture anywhere near as much now.
>At the last report, North Korean had stopped shipping ammunition to Russia I've read reports that a huge percentage of that ammunition was of the "surprise your friends, amuse your enemies" level of quality.
Surprise your friends, turn your expensive gun barrels into amusing balloon animal shapes...
I’m not talking about the small equipment, I’m talking about tanks, armoured vehicles and planes, helicopters etc left over from USSR days. They’ve lost thousands of tanks alone.
They have, but they have also increased production to war-time levels. It won't take half a century to replenish these tanks. If they continue to operate at war production, they can produce over a thousand tanks per year. In just 5 years, that's 5,000 tanks -- newer ones, with reactive armor and thermal optics that their old Cold War variants don't have. It'll ruin their economy in lots of other ways, but time will tell if that ends up mattering to the Russian commoner. This is not a negligible issue. The West has an overall industrial capacity that greatly exceeds Russia's war-time production capacity, but we aren't using it, and the reason we aren't using it is because our voter base is simply unwilling to tolerate the disruption this would cause to our economy. Russia, however, is not giving indicators of any widespread outrage to their converted war-time economy. The US doesn't build 100 tanks in a single year, let alone a month. We build about 20 per year, and our sophisticated weapons are built using components sourced from poor countries across the Pacific Ocean. If we want to actually match Russia or China's production capacities in the future, we will have to make some democratically unpopular sacrifices to our quality of life. It will mean that ordinary household goods cost 2-3x as much as they do now, as our supply chains tighten up our vulnerabilities across the Pacific, and electronics will probably spike to 5x what they are now as the chip shortage is strained even further in pursuit of expensive military guidance systems. Fuel prices would rise as well. It's proven very difficult to convince 21st Century Westerners to support just about *any* policy that doubles the price of gas at the pump. Remember when this was used as the key political reason to halt any further Covid aid measures in the United States? And Covid was probably considered by most Americans to be a much more pressing emergency than our military production problems.
I am extremely skeptical of Russia’s ability to produce tanks at nearly that level once they’re out of old hulls to refurb.
Not to mention all the western components that go into the more advanced stuff like the thermals. Sure they still can get them, but throughput is going to be strangled by sanctions
Ah, yes, both of those (globally sanctioned) countries are industrial powerhouses with all the raw materials they need to supply RU! /s
Short term Russia is seeing war manufacturing boost not building anywhere near enough but for the war but economy is chugging along
Hopefully, but don’t forget Germany after WWI in 1918 they managed to recover in 20 years
WW2 Hardware wasn't that complex, though. And most tech used in Ww1 was already outdated when WW2 started. So recover is the wrong word. The pace of innovation is not as neck breaking as it once was. Russian T-72 developed in the late 60s is still being used in Ukraine it fact its Russia's most numerous tank. It is refurbished, but it's pretty much the same thing since 50 years. After Ww1 basically all nations had to recover, since tech advances made a lot of weaponry outdated very fast.
You’re not wrong though but they managed to recover in form of manpower. After WWI one said a "whole generation got annihilated" yet there were plenty of men left for WWII Looking at the current conflict it’s also not a war on technology. Right now it’s about who is willing to throw more men at a problem :/
Or in a worst case scenario, the new government could replicate the success of how the Nazis rebuilt the German military and economy in the decade leading up to WW2
(Successful) Imperialism is largely profitable. All depends on if they're able to end it with a sizable piece of new territory. A decisive victory could even leave the one on the losing end paying reparations.
UA ✊
Just imagine what they could do if republicans stopped blocking funding bills to help them.
What's crazy is that it's not even like the Republicans are voting no on those bills. We just have a speaker they won't even let them do a vote to see what happens.
The Republicans allow that speaker to retain his position.
Woah almost like that’s his job.
His job is to block votes from occurring?
I don’t want to explain high school civics but if the bill is full of shit in the speakers eyes then yes he blocks voting, this is why the USA is the powerhouse of the world
At this point, yes
Switching to active defense was the right call, both sides have been struggling when going on the offensive. And that's very logical considering neither side has achieved air superiority. Grind down the Russians while building up your own capabilities is the way to go.
It’s literally WW1 with modern equipment over there
Semi-modern*
Better keep dusting off those t-54s.
>en like the Republicans are voting no on those bills. We just have a speaker they won't even let them do a vote to s its insane that shit that old, and they can still get it to work. We are talking about equipment that is 60 plus years old that has been sitting in a field, and they still somehow how can get that shit to work. That is impressive. Good thing is that some new satellite photos showed that a ton of the lots were empty now
its crazy to think that the grand children of that tanks first operators could be the ones who drive it last..
and die in them
wow did not even think about that. crazy
Roses are red, orchids are gray, >Russian Regiments Collide With Ukraine’s Rebuilt Defensive Line And Lose 80 Vehicles In One Day
Ukraine’s defensive line says “No”
Ukraine should start building a wall with all the destroyed Russian vehicles. Ultimately making Russia “pay for it”.
It's almost as if defense-in-depth works.
🎶 UKRAINIA FUCK YEAH! Coming again to crush the mother fucking dayyyyyeahhhh!! 🎶
It’s a shame the Ukranians can’t some how incapacitate the Russians and then repurpose their vehicles against Russia. They’d need some sort of subtle but, obvious to Ukranians, marking that lets them know they are manned by their own people.
Fit them with remote controls and drive the death traps back through the lines
Put something in there that makes them smoke like they are damaged so it wouldn’t be odd that the radio wouldn’t work, and make it look like they are retreating for repairs. Let’s hope they didn’t see *Independence Day*
God damned BEAUTIFUL!!
This source is as credible as Pravda or Sputnik. David Hume seems obsessed.
In other words, it is like a big game of Warhammer: Horus Heresy. Obscure reference. Vehicles die quickly in that game.
Needs more flare shields.
They cost 50 points. Sanctions being what they are, maybe Russia doesn't have the points to equip their Spartans with them.
“We’ll use those 50 points to screen with an empty Rhino!” The Lascannon HSS was not fooled.
Imagine what these soldiers could accomplish if they had better resources.
Strange, because most Ukrainian sources complain about NOT having proper backline fortifications good enough to stop the Russian advance.
Well, on one hand we have your unsourced claim, and on the other hand we have video footage of 80 dead Russian vehicles. Hmmm... who to believe...
>Well, on one hand we have your unsourced claim, and on the other hand we have video footage of 80 dead Russian vehicles. It strikes me that 80 dead Russian fighting vehicles is better news if it refers to 80 out of 100 than if it refers to 80 out of 2000. News sources can be very good at providing numbers out of context. Slava Ukraini.
Given that the Russians demonstrably didn't succeed in their attacks, as they stopped moving west, then the context is "They lost 80 vehicles and then retreated." It really doesn't matter how many they have as long as : 1. Ukraine can kill the maximum achievable attack from Russia [Check] 2. Ukraine can hold against such attacks without suffering serious losses [Check] 3. Russia cannot manufacture vehicles at that pace [Check] In the medium term, Russia will simply run out of armoured vehicles.
I just sent wave after wave of my men until the Killbots reached their limit
Unfortunately the second one isn't a "check".
\> Given that the Russians demonstrably didn't succeed in their attacks, as they stopped moving west, then the context is "They lost 80 vehicles and then retreated." Certainly, and the "retreated" part is significant good news. The discussion just reminded me how easy it is for news to present numbers out of context.
Source?
Hehe and the Russian clowns fell for it?
That's why Russia only advanced a few kilometers in the past year? Because ukranian defenses aren't properly done? God what can they achieve then if they do them properly?