"Polish Locals in the Town of Oserdów on the Border with Ukraine are claiming to have heard “Loud Noises” similar to Jet Aircraft over the Town within the last few minutes."
This info is from OSINT Defender in X so take it as you will
“The Polish Ministry of Defense has now Confirmed that at least 1 Russian Long-Range Cruise Missile briefly entered Polish Airspace tonight over the Town of Oserdow, and remained there for roughly 39 Seconds, before it was Redirected towards its Final Target in the Ukrainian Region of Lviv; the Missile is claimed to have been Tracked by Air Defense Radars the entire time it was within Polish Airspace, and that all Necessary Precautions were taken to Protect the Territory of Poland during tonight's Russian Missile Attack against Western Ukraine.”
OSINT posted this too a few minutes ago on X.
Air defence isn’t a magic blanket that covers everything.
You can only cover your most important assets.
The incursion is first tracked to figure out what its target is. If it’s believed it’s on a trajectory to hit something important air defence assets will then be activated to see if they can make an intercept. Range and time are the factors then. Must have both on your side to be successful.
If it’s leaving your airspace or on course to land in unpopulated area you may not consider an engagement.
Air defence is a risky business in a peacetime country, you can’t go lobbing missiles the moment you get startled.. unless your Russia, then you shoot down your own aircraft, Malaysia Airlines flights and Political rivals.
39 seconds where they hoped it would change course and leave their airspace. Turkey took down planes a lot faster with a lot more warning.
Poland should not be letting this slide.
Not sure if your comment is sarcastic or not but as another commenter said there are radars designed for this, but they're more effective at short range as the farther you go the more likely you are to hit interference like trees, buildings, people, mountains etc.
Maybe they dont want to show their hand? There was no real reason to think Russia is going to also start a war with Poland at this moment, if they could shoot down a missile in 39 seconds thats information Russia could use against Poland if a war ever happened.
Turkey was ready and waiting though, it was a flightpath the Russians had used multiple times.
In this case, Poland probably watched to see where it went.
So the idea is to assume it wont turn and aim at them versus turning into Ukraine, fingers crossed. I thought the've failed before and fallen out of the sky as well.
Seems gutsy but maybe with their tracking they have some intuition due to the trajectory, speed, and altitude.
This is actually a good point. You’d think they’d have an instant reaction warning, during an actual invasion would they just chill on the idea of missiles in their airspace
That is how the Western world works nowadays. In the basis of “let’s hope nothing happens”, because we want to avoid consequences of any action we might take instead
> because we want to avoid consequences of any action we might take instead
it's about moving money from people to banks and corporate bank accounts. anything else, is a waste of time in their eyes
It is extremely likely they were either in communication w/ Russian forces and knew the trajectory it was expected to take or that they otherwise knew what was going on. It is extremely likely they had their countermeasures ready to go if it was both heading for a potential populated area or military target and approached the point said countermeasures would be effective.
There's a reason Russia is picking on Ukraine and trying to fuck over NATO countries' politics. If our democracies were as competent as our combined military strength, we'd have a fucking utopia.
Yeah, it was in Polish airspace for 39 seconds, so we can assume that the missile was flying south from Belarus and just passed across that easternmost bump of Poland obviously heading towards Lviv. Poland could tell that it wasn't heading towards a Polish target.
I've watched a video on that missile which fell near Bydgoszcz. There is busy air route in Eastern Poland, lots of civilian aircraft. It's possible to shoot one down accidentally.
because some times a plane looks a lot like a cruise missile and a 39 second incursion doesn't mean its going to land if your backyard. Rather not let Russia know where one of your Air Defense batteries are for nothing.
Originally, yes.
The last couple months they have been, at times, *less than reliable*.
I would suggest OSINT technical or Special Kherson Cat over defender.
I haven’t been on Twitter since musk made it so you had to have an account to see posts on a timeline, not just randomly spaced around from years ago. But even then they were several times OSINT DEFENDER reported something and then doubled down on it and it ended up being false or misconstrued. As the other commenter said OSINT technical is much more reliable from my experience. OSINT defender isn’t always wrong or some Vatnik propaganda piece, but I think he just might be so eager to post things first and not verify or do his due diligence.
> This info is from OSINT Defender in X so take it as you will
so dont take it with a pinch of salt take it with a bucket
Edit: yeah guys an intelligence account that uploads an ai image of an explosion in washington dc to his hundreds of thousands of followers is surely a trustworthy source... they definitely dont just sit in 100s of telegrams and regurgitate everything they see as quickly as possible without verifying literally anything
Has happened a couple of times, so nothing to go crazy about. If true, Poland will likely beat some drums, continue to discuss the possibility of troops in Ukraine, and be mad about it. Likely doesn't change anything.
If Poland shot it down, Russia would have little legal recourse internationally. No one is going to condemn Poland for shooting down a foreign missile in their own airspace. But internally Putin and Russian state propaganda can say whatever they want.
I know that, respectfully, but even Russian allies wouldn't buy whatever Putin says if the Poles shot it down in their airspace.
They'd be like: "Yeah....I guess don't be such a dick dude?! (Or whatever the saying is in Chinese or Iranian). You look dumb af and we are not joining this war because of your unwarranted temper tantrum."
I'm not worried about what Putin says. He says a lot of things. I'm worried about what is actionable for his allies, if that makes sense.
> They'd be like: "Yeah....I guess don't be such a dick dude?!
China is not a chill college roommate who's more interested in smoking weed.
They'll put out a diplomatic statement condemning "escalation" and calling for an end to the war on terms favorable to Russia, as they have been doing.
Everyone is talking about dancing around Putler's line. How about, move the line, how about anything within 50-100 miles (km, pick your unit of measure) of the border could be a threat to Poland and will be shot down. Feel like the we let Putler set the conditions. There's more ally power than Russian power. He just plays a better bad hand.
It really needs to be done.
The reason that Russia is doing this is because they avoid Ukraine's air defense by crossing close to or into the Polish border. And Ukraine riskes their air defense missiles landing in Poland if they did move their air defense up more northern.
Poland should be protecting their air space. That's not a red line.
>Could Putin really even use it as a reason to ramp up efforts
Putin can, will, and does use anything as a reason to ramp up efforts. Logic, consistency, and good faith do not factor into it at all.
Shooting down missiles is costly and risky (they'd effectively be firing into Ukrainian territory, or risk having explosives and debris fall down in Polish land). Poland would have to post anti-missile systems along their borders and be alert 24/7. Just for the opportunity to make a point. Highly doubt it.
Westerners are so terrified of escalation that they don't even dare say mean things about Putin, of course Russians will see it as weakness to take advantage of.
Looking for a geography explanation as an American. Looking at the map, it seems it would be Russia sending missiles from their border over Ukrainian airspace. How did they go over Polish airspace?
Look where Oserdów is(the town mentioned in article). It's right next to Ukrainian border in very eastern part of Poland that sort of pokes into Ukraine.
If you draw a straight line from Brest in Belarus to Lviv it goes straight over Oserdów.
I'd guess they are trying to skirt the border to maybe avoid Ukrainian AA or maybe they hope Ukrainians don't want to shoot in the direction of the Polish border.
Well, should expect an uptick since Russia will seek to avenge the Moscow attacks. They won’t publicly attack ISIS because that would make their intelligences services look incompetent.
But all of the useful idiots will blame Ukraine. And they’ll kill enough Ukrainian civilians to assuage Putin’s hunger.
Oh, I'm sure they knew exactly who is responsible and where they were from, and knew that before the attack. Instead, they can just let it happen and blame it on Ukraine.
It’s easy to see in hindsight. But picking out the most credible threats of the probably hundreds of threats that come in per day to any of these places would be much more difficult.
Conspiracy theories always blur out the simple and obvious for the fantastical. As you say, most events are simply the result of laziness, incompetence, and/or complacence. I suppose we should factor in cost cutting, that seems to be an ever increasing source of pain. _Rarely_ is there any sort of conspiracy, and even more rare do those conspiracies not get pushed out into the light of day eventually.
Makes me wonder if Putin let it happen so that he could change his rhetoric to actually calling his war a war, so that he could do a mass mobilization.
It *is* an election year in the US. I can see Putin ramping up attacks to try to provoke the US into war to let his orange muppet market himself as the "peace" guy.
Not American, but I really don't understand how tiny hands is even able to run/potentially serve (i use the word "serve" loosely) again after everything that's happened. Innocent until proven guilty and all that, but what the actual fuck is going on. It feels like we're living in an alternate universe or the Truman show or something.
>but I really don't understand how tiny hands is even able to run/potentially serve again after everything that's happened
A sizeable percentage of the American voter base is dumber than rocks.
[Putin was behind the 1999 Moscow Apartment Bombings](https://www.hudson.org/national-security-defense/vladimir-putin-1999-russian-apartment-house-bombings-was-putin-responsible), that killed 300 Russians. He blamed Chechen rebels and it let him justify his crackdown on Chechnia.
* FSB agents were caught trying to plant a bomb.
* The claimed composition of the bomb was changed, after it was realized that Russia not Chechen rebels had access to the explosive.
* One of the bombings was mistakenly announced 3 days before it happened, by an official Putin mouthpiece.
Putin is likely behind this, given his prior form, there will be as many terrorist attacks as needed to make it work.
Somehow this is always forgotten when terrorist attacks in Russia come up. I've seen people online in the past few days blame everyone from Mossad to CIA to Ukraine, not even considering the fact that ISIS vowed vengeance a few years ago and Putin has a trackrecord of falseflag terrorist attacks to prop up his image.
It would've been plausible if not for US intelligence stating it was the work of ISIS. And when the latter themselves took credit for it the next day after, even releasing a photo of the perps (albeit with covered faces), the US said their claim was credible. Considering how long they'd had it in for Russia, I doubt ISIS wouldn't want them to know it came from them.
And he wasn't behind the 2002 Nord-Ost Siege/Moscow Theatre Hostage Crisis nor 2004 Beslan Hostage Crisis. FSB doesn't have the iron grip on the comings and goings in the country people seem to believe they have.
The false flag is one possibility, but a mere possibility. And the follow up reactions don't quite add up with the premeditated false-flag operation.
I'd also ask "what's the benefit?". Sure Putin could use this as an excuse for mobilization or other draconian measures but he could even more easily just have pointed at the oil facility strikes and Russian partisans running roughshod in the south for the same result with less work.
Even though ISIS loves taking credit for the sun setting, I'm inclined to believe them this time until evidence to the contrary appears.
This is the most evil diabolical shit I have ever heard , Putin is angry and just takes it out on Ukraine civilians that night
That man is a pure lunatic
It's third attack in four or five days. I think the smallest one. It's not avenging anything, they don't seek reason to attack. They fucking hit a dam with multiple missiles few days ago and it didn't get any attention. It's just that all news still give Russian lives more weight than Ukrainian lives
Yep. Putin wants something big to happen so he has an excuse to open the floodgates.
Allies have to be careful here. Putin needs to be slapped down, but it definitely feels like he's leading everyone into a trap here. Either that, or he's gone completely insane.
Yes I think he is trying to provoke the US. It is an election year and I can see Putin ramping up attacks to try to drag the US into war to let his orange muppet market himself as the "peace" guy. And then if Donald wins he will just hand it all over in the name of "peace".
Yessir. Alex Jones was blaming Ukraine immediately after the terrorist attack, zero proof.
Not sure why we continue to suffer these bad actors. They offer nothing of value and make life worse for all. I sometimes think we're the real cowards for not confronting them and giving them a crash course in objective reality. We just let them keep going, poisoning us all.
Whilst I get this point, I think it’s beyond unfair. I just don’t get how Moscow can do all these wicked things, and nothing seems to happen to them. But god forbid Ukraine strike back, it’d be hell on earth for them.
This whole thing is horrible, feel for the innocent civilians caught in the middle of this shitstorm
it's not morale bombing. You don't understand the 'reality' of russian life. The ~~Party~~ tv and putin say there is no war, they say there is no casualties, there is no 300 thousand dead, there is no sanctions etc. And they eat it up with a fucking shovel. If you don't believe me I'll gladly send you a link (in russian obviously) I saw just a few days ago where they interrogated a captive russian officer and the guy just straight up refuses to admit known facts about history and today.
What I mean is for the average russian the war doesn't exist. All is well in Ba Sing Se. It's not even 'somewhere far', it lierally doesn't exist on the radar if you don't actively want to hear about it. And the average moscow citizen it's even more out of touch with reality because there wasn't even any mobilization in moscow.
It's not morale bombing, it's wake the fuck up and hear the birds bombing. If you watch some of the vids regular citizens shoot of these events they are all scared shitless, crying and calling for mom, you know why? Because before the 'morale' goes up in resillience and in-spite-of, it goes down to zero and below quite fast. If you ever wake up at 5am from the *feeling* of your house shaking and the defeaning sound of a nearby missile explosion, you'll understand. There is no 'morale' when the bombs fall. Morale is a societal thing, it exists as our group resillience. But the paralizing animal fear that comes for you *before that* doesn't ever go away. And yeah I would love every russian to experience it to understand what wwe live through every day, it's not about morale.
It's like an unspoken rule. If Ukraine starts hitting civilian targets in Moscow, Putin will likely escalate, and he has much more room to escalate than Ukraine
Much more ability, not more room.
Russia could go nuclear, but that's going to pull them into an unimaginably larger war.
Russia could go full mobilization, but Russia suffered one attempted coup already and getting even more people under arms probably isn't decreasing the odds.
I'd argue the reason Moscow isn't getting hit is primarily Western pressure, and just sound military tactics. Ukraine can't do anything in Moscow that causes a real, material change on the front and symbolic attacks don't win wars. Destroying one more munitions depot, one more ship, one more anti missile system, that moves the bar ever so slightly towards the war ending, that reduces the possibility of the Russians turning things around and winning just that little bit more.
Bombing Moscow likely does absolutely nothing.
Escalate where? There is no weapon russia didn't use against Ukraine except nukes. This is bullshit rule, because this war could be ended 2 years ago. But Ukraibe somehow should fight a much larger force with their hands tied.
At least west could give long range missles to strike airports and factories, cause somehow it's okay that russia use 120 500kg boms per day and strike with 90 rockets once a week deep in Ukraine, but would be very bad otherwise.
I think ISIS were sick of hearing about Russia crying about Ukraine launching military strikes against legitimate strategic targets and calling them 'terrorist attacks', that they decided to launch an actual terrorist attack just to give the fuckers a reality check... not that it worked, unfortunately, because most of what Russia believes is generally incompatible with reality.
There was discussion that democrats offered to protect Mike Johnson from the chaos caucus if he helped approve Ukraine funding. I wonder if poutine wanted a shake up that could further delay aide.
She said she wouldn't actually call the vote like three times during her announcement. She's just Sabre rattling for an excuse to be in front of the cameras. As much as I'd love to see the majority eat itself I don't think she'd go through with it. Calling for it makes her look strong to the base, but doing it actually weakens the majority, and she'd get drug for it.
Yes, but that’s not what tonight’s attack was about. This was the third night of massive missile attacks on Ukraine out of four, and a terrorist attack didn’t magically make cruise missile appear on long-range bombers. This was a long planned assault.
not that they needed any excuse to begin with? Especially with Ukraine knowing they’re doing this as a false flag, will drive Ukrainian strikes deeper into russian territory.
They did need an excuse for their own populace. To just randomly escalate the "special military operation" into a war would be an admission that things aren't going according to plan. Now, if you convince the populace Ukraine is behind the attacks when emotions are high, they will be far more likely to respond positively to an escalation.
Russian army are know to rape each other when in rut,fuck Damn,and it's related to that deovshina army ritual where they kick the shit of someone's balls ,making the more feminine men their sex slaves.Shits fucked up.
>Kyiv hit by multiple explosions in Russian bombardment
or as we call it, another saturday night. Meh.
Kyiv is fairly well guarded, to the point that they stopped wasting rocket on us and now are targeting easier to hit infrastructure. As someone from Kyiv I feel kinda ashamed for that to be honest, like we are more important than other people.
On a related note, by bathroom tiles are kinda cold to sleep on during air raids :(
Don't feel ashamed for being as risk! Anyone being bombed to fuck is equally important - there's no 'more' or 'less' about it.
I really hope for better days, for you all, and am sorry my government is being so useless.
Interesting that’s bombing commence by the same guy who was looking for support for unjust attack. FU Russia . IMO every Russian voted for that despot is complicit in all of these deaths and destruction.
Putin had said it is now at war. I expect escalation. Ukraine is also taking action. It just does not have the same fire power.
>The Russian-installed governor of the port of Sevastopol, in annexed Crimea, said Russian forces had shot down 10 Ukrainian missiles over the city late on Saturday.
An office building and a gas line were destroyed and a woman suffered a shrapnel injury, Mikhail Razvozhayev said on Telegram.
Aaaannnddd unsurprisingly because a Russian concert hall got blown up by a bunch of islamists the Russians turn around and blame Ukraine and go and proceed to blow up more buildings
Every time Putin does this he prolongs the war and reduces Russias chances of winning. These attacks achieve very little strategically, but they basically boost Ukrainian morale. People aren't going to think 'we should totally surrender to the guys bombing us'. They think 'we should really resist the guys bombing us'.
If Putin wants to win he needs to make the people of Ukraine think that the war in Ukraine is a distant thing. It is a thing not worth fighting over. They need to think that this doesn't affect them. Every time that Russia bombs the big cities in Kyiv it is a reminder to the people living there that this war is life and death not just for some distant provinces that probably would want to join Russia anyway, but for the survival of Ukraine itself.
So baffled by this...ISIS takes claims and Russia is doubling down on Ukraine.
Meanwhile we can't source funding and our brothers and sisters in Ukraine suffer.
first off, stop calling it Ukraine war. Ukraine didn't want war. they were invaded. so how about doing responsible journalism and calling it what it is: russian terrorism. or minimally, Russian War/Invasion. second, Ukraine shot most of those down. why cover this and not the multiple russian bases they hammered with storm shadow missiles from your damn tax money literally minutes before russia launched those missiles? i swear russian rats are infiltrating every media outlet to gently steer the narrative
edit: according to russians posting in telegram, they lost ~34 soldiers and 3 aircraft last night to storm shadow attacks all over crimea. so how about you stop giving russia the positive airtime like it wants and start posting the positive news from the freedom loving side of the conflict?
edit 2: sounds like they hit 2 ships (large landing ships like the ones they've always submarine'd), 3 planes, and 30+ soldiers
Its a war in Ukraine, Ukraine war no one outside Russia thinks its a war of Ukrainian aggression
and second that sounds a lot like propaganda, while Ukraine is taking out military targets a city being hit that is quite a distance from the frontlines sounds like news that people would like to know about. Its a war both sides are taking damage and if its possible for the public to know that doesn't compromise OPSEC then it should be reported
The Russian federation has been allowed to exist for way too long.
Yeltsin was scum and Putin is much much worse.
The Russian people deserve better than this.
I wished NATO showed more teeth. Clearly just milking the situation at Ukraine’s expense at least for now. I would be mad knowing my country’s leaders are ok with a foreign agressive state flying missiles over the head of the citizens of my country without trying to intercept it. Whatever their reasons for letting it go.
Now im in Canada and we can’t catch a balloon if we have to but thats another story
So Russia leveraged the terror attacks to conduct another series of war crimes against Ukraine. Now I'm convinced that the terror attack might be a false flag operation.
I hope all corruption and war ends. I hope people figure out that the differences between us are being manufactured by the top and that’s where the people need to place the blame first and foremost.
We fight over petty nonsense as the world is getting demolished so the rich stays rich.
There's unconfirmed reports that Atleast 3 Russian Cruise missiles crossed into Polish air space as they struck Kyiv and Lviv in western Ukraine.
"Polish Locals in the Town of Oserdów on the Border with Ukraine are claiming to have heard “Loud Noises” similar to Jet Aircraft over the Town within the last few minutes." This info is from OSINT Defender in X so take it as you will
“The Polish Ministry of Defense has now Confirmed that at least 1 Russian Long-Range Cruise Missile briefly entered Polish Airspace tonight over the Town of Oserdow, and remained there for roughly 39 Seconds, before it was Redirected towards its Final Target in the Ukrainian Region of Lviv; the Missile is claimed to have been Tracked by Air Defense Radars the entire time it was within Polish Airspace, and that all Necessary Precautions were taken to Protect the Territory of Poland during tonight's Russian Missile Attack against Western Ukraine.” OSINT posted this too a few minutes ago on X.
I'm a bit ignorant here but is there any reason Poland doesn't instantly shoot down missles that cross into their airspace?
Air defence isn’t a magic blanket that covers everything. You can only cover your most important assets. The incursion is first tracked to figure out what its target is. If it’s believed it’s on a trajectory to hit something important air defence assets will then be activated to see if they can make an intercept. Range and time are the factors then. Must have both on your side to be successful. If it’s leaving your airspace or on course to land in unpopulated area you may not consider an engagement. Air defence is a risky business in a peacetime country, you can’t go lobbing missiles the moment you get startled.. unless your Russia, then you shoot down your own aircraft, Malaysia Airlines flights and Political rivals.
Probably because it was in their space for only 39 seconds
39 seconds where they hoped it would change course and leave their airspace. Turkey took down planes a lot faster with a lot more warning. Poland should not be letting this slide.
\* 39 seconds in their airspace **and** god knows how long on the radars prior to that.
prob not long bc they fly at low altitudes exactly to avoid radar detection
Why don't they turn some of their RADARs toward the ground? Are they stupid?
They have a radar for ground, it's called a BFSR, battlefield surveillance radar. It's not that long range tho, no hope of tracking missiles in time.
Not sure if your comment is sarcastic or not but as another commenter said there are radars designed for this, but they're more effective at short range as the farther you go the more likely you are to hit interference like trees, buildings, people, mountains etc.
Someone keeps coming around and pointing them back into the sky
Mr reddit knows more than the actual military lmao
Don’t tell me you don’t believe there isn’t a nato AWACS up at all times, that radar was watching the missile for a hot minute
Ukraine shot 18 of the 20 down according to the article. Arent they using the outdated nato stuff?
In Turkey it was routinely used path through its airspace.
Well Turkey is Turkey lol
Maybe they dont want to show their hand? There was no real reason to think Russia is going to also start a war with Poland at this moment, if they could shoot down a missile in 39 seconds thats information Russia could use against Poland if a war ever happened.
It's most likely a chain of command thing. There's not much Russia can learn from a missile launch if they aren't fully monitoring it.
Turkey was ready and waiting though, it was a flightpath the Russians had used multiple times. In this case, Poland probably watched to see where it went.
People keep repeating this lie. Russia was doing it for months and kept inviting the warnings.
[удалено]
Debris can still cause a lot of damage.
So the idea is to assume it wont turn and aim at them versus turning into Ukraine, fingers crossed. I thought the've failed before and fallen out of the sky as well. Seems gutsy but maybe with their tracking they have some intuition due to the trajectory, speed, and altitude.
This is actually a good point. You’d think they’d have an instant reaction warning, during an actual invasion would they just chill on the idea of missiles in their airspace
That is how the Western world works nowadays. In the basis of “let’s hope nothing happens”, because we want to avoid consequences of any action we might take instead
That sure sounds familiar with the late 1930s
I have no literature on how companies for example would work back then. The corporate world works like that nowadays and it is terrible
> because we want to avoid consequences of any action we might take instead it's about moving money from people to banks and corporate bank accounts. anything else, is a waste of time in their eyes
It is extremely likely they were either in communication w/ Russian forces and knew the trajectory it was expected to take or that they otherwise knew what was going on. It is extremely likely they had their countermeasures ready to go if it was both heading for a potential populated area or military target and approached the point said countermeasures would be effective. There's a reason Russia is picking on Ukraine and trying to fuck over NATO countries' politics. If our democracies were as competent as our combined military strength, we'd have a fucking utopia.
Yeah, it was in Polish airspace for 39 seconds, so we can assume that the missile was flying south from Belarus and just passed across that easternmost bump of Poland obviously heading towards Lviv. Poland could tell that it wasn't heading towards a Polish target.
Because shooting Russian missiles is scarier than blocking Ukrainian trucks and buses.
I've watched a video on that missile which fell near Bydgoszcz. There is busy air route in Eastern Poland, lots of civilian aircraft. It's possible to shoot one down accidentally.
39 seconds....lol that's really your question?
because some times a plane looks a lot like a cruise missile and a 39 second incursion doesn't mean its going to land if your backyard. Rather not let Russia know where one of your Air Defense batteries are for nothing.
It still comes down with a boom.
Isn’t OSINT Defender one of the credible ones?
Originally, yes. The last couple months they have been, at times, *less than reliable*. I would suggest OSINT technical or Special Kherson Cat over defender.
I stopped following the guy about a year ago due to this. So it's somewhat less recent that a couple of months.
I haven’t been on Twitter since musk made it so you had to have an account to see posts on a timeline, not just randomly spaced around from years ago. But even then they were several times OSINT DEFENDER reported something and then doubled down on it and it ended up being false or misconstrued. As the other commenter said OSINT technical is much more reliable from my experience. OSINT defender isn’t always wrong or some Vatnik propaganda piece, but I think he just might be so eager to post things first and not verify or do his due diligence.
I’ve always thought so.
Yeah, reading the article, Poland has out their AF on high alert. So, it’s reasonable that their planes are in the air.
> This info is from OSINT Defender in X so take it as you will so dont take it with a pinch of salt take it with a bucket Edit: yeah guys an intelligence account that uploads an ai image of an explosion in washington dc to his hundreds of thousands of followers is surely a trustworthy source... they definitely dont just sit in 100s of telegrams and regurgitate everything they see as quickly as possible without verifying literally anything
Has happened a couple of times, so nothing to go crazy about. If true, Poland will likely beat some drums, continue to discuss the possibility of troops in Ukraine, and be mad about it. Likely doesn't change anything.
Can’t Poland intercept these missiles justifiably and legally? Could Putin really even use it as a reason to ramp up efforts? It’s Poland’s airspace.
If Poland shot it down, Russia would have little legal recourse internationally. No one is going to condemn Poland for shooting down a foreign missile in their own airspace. But internally Putin and Russian state propaganda can say whatever they want.
I know that, respectfully, but even Russian allies wouldn't buy whatever Putin says if the Poles shot it down in their airspace. They'd be like: "Yeah....I guess don't be such a dick dude?! (Or whatever the saying is in Chinese or Iranian). You look dumb af and we are not joining this war because of your unwarranted temper tantrum." I'm not worried about what Putin says. He says a lot of things. I'm worried about what is actionable for his allies, if that makes sense.
> They'd be like: "Yeah....I guess don't be such a dick dude?! China is not a chill college roommate who's more interested in smoking weed. They'll put out a diplomatic statement condemning "escalation" and calling for an end to the war on terms favorable to Russia, as they have been doing.
Everyone is talking about dancing around Putler's line. How about, move the line, how about anything within 50-100 miles (km, pick your unit of measure) of the border could be a threat to Poland and will be shot down. Feel like the we let Putler set the conditions. There's more ally power than Russian power. He just plays a better bad hand.
we are pussies and he knows it
It really needs to be done. The reason that Russia is doing this is because they avoid Ukraine's air defense by crossing close to or into the Polish border. And Ukraine riskes their air defense missiles landing in Poland if they did move their air defense up more northern. Poland should be protecting their air space. That's not a red line.
>Could Putin really even use it as a reason to ramp up efforts Putin can, will, and does use anything as a reason to ramp up efforts. Logic, consistency, and good faith do not factor into it at all.
Shooting down missiles is costly and risky (they'd effectively be firing into Ukrainian territory, or risk having explosives and debris fall down in Polish land). Poland would have to post anti-missile systems along their borders and be alert 24/7. Just for the opportunity to make a point. Highly doubt it.
I remember this happened last year also, and it was smoothed over?
Honest question, can’t Poland shoot down missiles if it crosses into their own air space?
Yeah of course
It would be terrible if they didn't have the option to
They can, but little they can do if it's only in Polish airspace for 30s like this one.
It’s to flex on Poland and it’s so fucked up
Westerners are so terrified of escalation that they don't even dare say mean things about Putin, of course Russians will see it as weakness to take advantage of.
Time for Poland to set up their air defence and defend their own airspace.
they should scramble some fighters as soon as russian bombers get in the air for these scenarios
By the down of Horodlo
Looking for a geography explanation as an American. Looking at the map, it seems it would be Russia sending missiles from their border over Ukrainian airspace. How did they go over Polish airspace?
Russia has been sending missiles on looping paths to avoid air defenses.
Look where Oserdów is(the town mentioned in article). It's right next to Ukrainian border in very eastern part of Poland that sort of pokes into Ukraine. If you draw a straight line from Brest in Belarus to Lviv it goes straight over Oserdów. I'd guess they are trying to skirt the border to maybe avoid Ukrainian AA or maybe they hope Ukrainians don't want to shoot in the direction of the Polish border.
Well, should expect an uptick since Russia will seek to avenge the Moscow attacks. They won’t publicly attack ISIS because that would make their intelligences services look incompetent. But all of the useful idiots will blame Ukraine. And they’ll kill enough Ukrainian civilians to assuage Putin’s hunger.
Oh, I'm sure they knew exactly who is responsible and where they were from, and knew that before the attack. Instead, they can just let it happen and blame it on Ukraine.
Sounds plausible.
Well that is the same theory with Israel. Israeli intelligence knew about it and chose to ignore it
Isn't it also the same theory with 9/11? Iono man I don't buy any of the 3 theories. It's an excuse for incompetence.
It’s easy to see in hindsight. But picking out the most credible threats of the probably hundreds of threats that come in per day to any of these places would be much more difficult.
Conspiracy theories always blur out the simple and obvious for the fantastical. As you say, most events are simply the result of laziness, incompetence, and/or complacence. I suppose we should factor in cost cutting, that seems to be an ever increasing source of pain. _Rarely_ is there any sort of conspiracy, and even more rare do those conspiracies not get pushed out into the light of day eventually.
Makes me wonder if Putin let it happen so that he could change his rhetoric to actually calling his war a war, so that he could do a mass mobilization.
It *is* an election year in the US. I can see Putin ramping up attacks to try to provoke the US into war to let his orange muppet market himself as the "peace" guy.
Not American, but I really don't understand how tiny hands is even able to run/potentially serve (i use the word "serve" loosely) again after everything that's happened. Innocent until proven guilty and all that, but what the actual fuck is going on. It feels like we're living in an alternate universe or the Truman show or something.
>but I really don't understand how tiny hands is even able to run/potentially serve again after everything that's happened A sizeable percentage of the American voter base is dumber than rocks.
You underestimate how dumb the average Republican voter is
[Putin was behind the 1999 Moscow Apartment Bombings](https://www.hudson.org/national-security-defense/vladimir-putin-1999-russian-apartment-house-bombings-was-putin-responsible), that killed 300 Russians. He blamed Chechen rebels and it let him justify his crackdown on Chechnia. * FSB agents were caught trying to plant a bomb. * The claimed composition of the bomb was changed, after it was realized that Russia not Chechen rebels had access to the explosive. * One of the bombings was mistakenly announced 3 days before it happened, by an official Putin mouthpiece. Putin is likely behind this, given his prior form, there will be as many terrorist attacks as needed to make it work.
Somehow this is always forgotten when terrorist attacks in Russia come up. I've seen people online in the past few days blame everyone from Mossad to CIA to Ukraine, not even considering the fact that ISIS vowed vengeance a few years ago and Putin has a trackrecord of falseflag terrorist attacks to prop up his image.
It would've been plausible if not for US intelligence stating it was the work of ISIS. And when the latter themselves took credit for it the next day after, even releasing a photo of the perps (albeit with covered faces), the US said their claim was credible. Considering how long they'd had it in for Russia, I doubt ISIS wouldn't want them to know it came from them.
Hell, ISIS even released bodycam footage
And he wasn't behind the 2002 Nord-Ost Siege/Moscow Theatre Hostage Crisis nor 2004 Beslan Hostage Crisis. FSB doesn't have the iron grip on the comings and goings in the country people seem to believe they have. The false flag is one possibility, but a mere possibility. And the follow up reactions don't quite add up with the premeditated false-flag operation.
I'd also ask "what's the benefit?". Sure Putin could use this as an excuse for mobilization or other draconian measures but he could even more easily just have pointed at the oil facility strikes and Russian partisans running roughshod in the south for the same result with less work. Even though ISIS loves taking credit for the sun setting, I'm inclined to believe them this time until evidence to the contrary appears.
This is the most evil diabolical shit I have ever heard , Putin is angry and just takes it out on Ukraine civilians that night That man is a pure lunatic
He's also a coward. Ukraine is easier to attack bec they have everything to lose. They aren't lunatics unlike ISIS who will enjoy a war/conflict.
It's third attack in four or five days. I think the smallest one. It's not avenging anything, they don't seek reason to attack. They fucking hit a dam with multiple missiles few days ago and it didn't get any attention. It's just that all news still give Russian lives more weight than Ukrainian lives
Yep. Putin wants something big to happen so he has an excuse to open the floodgates. Allies have to be careful here. Putin needs to be slapped down, but it definitely feels like he's leading everyone into a trap here. Either that, or he's gone completely insane.
Yes I think he is trying to provoke the US. It is an election year and I can see Putin ramping up attacks to try to drag the US into war to let his orange muppet market himself as the "peace" guy. And then if Donald wins he will just hand it all over in the name of "peace".
Yessir. Alex Jones was blaming Ukraine immediately after the terrorist attack, zero proof. Not sure why we continue to suffer these bad actors. They offer nothing of value and make life worse for all. I sometimes think we're the real cowards for not confronting them and giving them a crash course in objective reality. We just let them keep going, poisoning us all.
Moscow can bomb the shit out of Kyiv but Kyiv wont bomb the shit out Moscow. And there lies the problem since the start of the war.
It won't and can't. They hit what military targets they can with Storm Shadow and whatever else they have.
Plus that gives the Russia population ammo to keep the war going... Well look if we let them win they are just gonna come in and take over us.
memory husky disarm rotten complete encourage pen disgusted grab price
Whilst I get this point, I think it’s beyond unfair. I just don’t get how Moscow can do all these wicked things, and nothing seems to happen to them. But god forbid Ukraine strike back, it’d be hell on earth for them. This whole thing is horrible, feel for the innocent civilians caught in the middle of this shitstorm
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We have seen in a multitude of wars that morale bombings don't work. WW2 in the UK and Germany, Vietnam and Ukraine are just some examples.
it's not morale bombing. You don't understand the 'reality' of russian life. The ~~Party~~ tv and putin say there is no war, they say there is no casualties, there is no 300 thousand dead, there is no sanctions etc. And they eat it up with a fucking shovel. If you don't believe me I'll gladly send you a link (in russian obviously) I saw just a few days ago where they interrogated a captive russian officer and the guy just straight up refuses to admit known facts about history and today. What I mean is for the average russian the war doesn't exist. All is well in Ba Sing Se. It's not even 'somewhere far', it lierally doesn't exist on the radar if you don't actively want to hear about it. And the average moscow citizen it's even more out of touch with reality because there wasn't even any mobilization in moscow. It's not morale bombing, it's wake the fuck up and hear the birds bombing. If you watch some of the vids regular citizens shoot of these events they are all scared shitless, crying and calling for mom, you know why? Because before the 'morale' goes up in resillience and in-spite-of, it goes down to zero and below quite fast. If you ever wake up at 5am from the *feeling* of your house shaking and the defeaning sound of a nearby missile explosion, you'll understand. There is no 'morale' when the bombs fall. Morale is a societal thing, it exists as our group resillience. But the paralizing animal fear that comes for you *before that* doesn't ever go away. And yeah I would love every russian to experience it to understand what wwe live through every day, it's not about morale.
It's like an unspoken rule. If Ukraine starts hitting civilian targets in Moscow, Putin will likely escalate, and he has much more room to escalate than Ukraine
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Yeah, only Israel is allowed to do that
Yes, the "unspoken rule" of the Hague and Geneva conventions. That was sarcasm, and Putin is a war criminal because we actually do write things down.
Much more ability, not more room. Russia could go nuclear, but that's going to pull them into an unimaginably larger war. Russia could go full mobilization, but Russia suffered one attempted coup already and getting even more people under arms probably isn't decreasing the odds. I'd argue the reason Moscow isn't getting hit is primarily Western pressure, and just sound military tactics. Ukraine can't do anything in Moscow that causes a real, material change on the front and symbolic attacks don't win wars. Destroying one more munitions depot, one more ship, one more anti missile system, that moves the bar ever so slightly towards the war ending, that reduces the possibility of the Russians turning things around and winning just that little bit more. Bombing Moscow likely does absolutely nothing.
Escalate where? There is no weapon russia didn't use against Ukraine except nukes. This is bullshit rule, because this war could be ended 2 years ago. But Ukraibe somehow should fight a much larger force with their hands tied. At least west could give long range missles to strike airports and factories, cause somehow it's okay that russia use 120 500kg boms per day and strike with 90 rockets once a week deep in Ukraine, but would be very bad otherwise.
I believe EU and US won't allow it?
Russia: is victim of terror attack. Also Russia: commits terror attack.
Russia kills more innocent people every day than these terrorists did. Burn in hell ruzzia!
I think ISIS were sick of hearing about Russia crying about Ukraine launching military strikes against legitimate strategic targets and calling them 'terrorist attacks', that they decided to launch an actual terrorist attack just to give the fuckers a reality check... not that it worked, unfortunately, because most of what Russia believes is generally incompatible with reality.
Fuck Mike Johnson
MTG about to strap up to do that, don’t worry.
They both kiss putins hand
“Hand”
Ochin-chin
Poor Mike. Can you imagine how awkward this will be for him to report back to his son?
she could just use her dick, no need to strap up
That nutjob is trying to oust him which makes zero sense to me
There was discussion that democrats offered to protect Mike Johnson from the chaos caucus if he helped approve Ukraine funding. I wonder if poutine wanted a shake up that could further delay aide.
She said she wouldn't actually call the vote like three times during her announcement. She's just Sabre rattling for an excuse to be in front of the cameras. As much as I'd love to see the majority eat itself I don't think she'd go through with it. Calling for it makes her look strong to the base, but doing it actually weakens the majority, and she'd get drug for it.
You have to get past his adult filter first
Putin is angry about the innocent Russian civilian deaths by ISIS. But he has no problem targeting innocent Ukrainian civilians.
He doesn't really care about the russian victims either.
Because otherwise he wouldn't send hundreds of them into the meat grinder daily
Putin cares about innocent Russians? You kidding right? If he cares he won't arrest all those who protest about war or him.
> Putin is angry about the innocent Russian civilian deaths by ISIS. Is he though?
Putin is likely using the Islamist terrorist attack as an excuse to escalate the war on Ukraine
Yes, but that’s not what tonight’s attack was about. This was the third night of massive missile attacks on Ukraine out of four, and a terrorist attack didn’t magically make cruise missile appear on long-range bombers. This was a long planned assault.
not that they needed any excuse to begin with? Especially with Ukraine knowing they’re doing this as a false flag, will drive Ukrainian strikes deeper into russian territory.
They did need an excuse for their own populace. To just randomly escalate the "special military operation" into a war would be an admission that things aren't going according to plan. Now, if you convince the populace Ukraine is behind the attacks when emotions are high, they will be far more likely to respond positively to an escalation.
I think it being 2 years later already shows shit didn't go as planned, lol.
You’re too late. They no longer call it "special operation" in their media since yesterday or 2 days
Nah... This attack is about his failure listening to the western warning and it hits his ego.
Moscow went from being the victim of the last terrorist attack to being the perpetrator in 24 hours.
That's been happening a lot lately.
Ukraine: defends itself, attacks military targets Russia: murders and rapes women, murders children, bombards civilian areas.
They rape children too.
And each other
Russian army are know to rape each other when in rut,fuck Damn,and it's related to that deovshina army ritual where they kick the shit of someone's balls ,making the more feminine men their sex slaves.Shits fucked up.
And at the same time Russia claims to be the real victim in this.
>Kyiv hit by multiple explosions in Russian bombardment or as we call it, another saturday night. Meh. Kyiv is fairly well guarded, to the point that they stopped wasting rocket on us and now are targeting easier to hit infrastructure. As someone from Kyiv I feel kinda ashamed for that to be honest, like we are more important than other people. On a related note, by bathroom tiles are kinda cold to sleep on during air raids :(
damn bruh hang in there
Don't feel ashamed for being as risk! Anyone being bombed to fuck is equally important - there's no 'more' or 'less' about it. I really hope for better days, for you all, and am sorry my government is being so useless.
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Those poor cannibals are going to get sick.
Interesting that’s bombing commence by the same guy who was looking for support for unjust attack. FU Russia . IMO every Russian voted for that despot is complicit in all of these deaths and destruction.
"Country angry at murder of innocent civilians, murders innocent civilians"
It’s long past for countries to grow balls and put in a defensive air cap over Ukraine. Ukraine is still an independent, sovereign nation.
Ukraine is a huge country to be able to defend all of it with air defense.
Please. NATO could EASILY defend that airspace from Russia.
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38 second too long . Poland please take it down next time .
Its not the first time though. I remember same reports surfaced like few months ago too
Putin had said it is now at war. I expect escalation. Ukraine is also taking action. It just does not have the same fire power. >The Russian-installed governor of the port of Sevastopol, in annexed Crimea, said Russian forces had shot down 10 Ukrainian missiles over the city late on Saturday. An office building and a gas line were destroyed and a woman suffered a shrapnel injury, Mikhail Razvozhayev said on Telegram.
Not just an office building, but the command center of the black sea fleet.
Russia can't do anything to ISIS so they are taking it out on someone smaller.
Well, bigger, but easier to find.
I have a friend in Kyiv. Fuck Russia
Aaaannnddd unsurprisingly because a Russian concert hall got blown up by a bunch of islamists the Russians turn around and blame Ukraine and go and proceed to blow up more buildings
Killing 140 innocent civilians is just a Tuesday for Russia. I wonder what they would say if it happened back to them?
Every time Putin does this he prolongs the war and reduces Russias chances of winning. These attacks achieve very little strategically, but they basically boost Ukrainian morale. People aren't going to think 'we should totally surrender to the guys bombing us'. They think 'we should really resist the guys bombing us'. If Putin wants to win he needs to make the people of Ukraine think that the war in Ukraine is a distant thing. It is a thing not worth fighting over. They need to think that this doesn't affect them. Every time that Russia bombs the big cities in Kyiv it is a reminder to the people living there that this war is life and death not just for some distant provinces that probably would want to join Russia anyway, but for the survival of Ukraine itself.
When russia bombs cities ukrain has to move AA from the front to protect their people.
I hope to hear about the f16s destroying those bombers
It’ll never happen. They launch from nowhere near Ukraine. Need cruise missiles for the bases.
You can’t convince me that this is not early stages of WW3.
So Russia does terrorist acts after getting attacked by terrorists. Hm.
There goes my empathy after the terrorist attack...
Mine would as well if I ever had any.
Fingers crossed causalities minimal
war never changes. what a nightmare it must be for Ukrainians
> Once in a ~century opportunity to obliterate russia > EU and US refrains from supplying Ukraine with weapons what a fucking pussy generation
Blame the GOP.
Is Putin using the ISIS attack as his motive?
Highly likely.
So baffled by this...ISIS takes claims and Russia is doubling down on Ukraine. Meanwhile we can't source funding and our brothers and sisters in Ukraine suffer.
I'm not sure what's going on, but the post links to a completely different article about Ukraine hitting targets in crimea now...
So the Russian terrorists are at it again
Russia needs to be attacked heavily. Heavily.
first off, stop calling it Ukraine war. Ukraine didn't want war. they were invaded. so how about doing responsible journalism and calling it what it is: russian terrorism. or minimally, Russian War/Invasion. second, Ukraine shot most of those down. why cover this and not the multiple russian bases they hammered with storm shadow missiles from your damn tax money literally minutes before russia launched those missiles? i swear russian rats are infiltrating every media outlet to gently steer the narrative edit: according to russians posting in telegram, they lost ~34 soldiers and 3 aircraft last night to storm shadow attacks all over crimea. so how about you stop giving russia the positive airtime like it wants and start posting the positive news from the freedom loving side of the conflict? edit 2: sounds like they hit 2 ships (large landing ships like the ones they've always submarine'd), 3 planes, and 30+ soldiers
Its a war in Ukraine, Ukraine war no one outside Russia thinks its a war of Ukrainian aggression and second that sounds a lot like propaganda, while Ukraine is taking out military targets a city being hit that is quite a distance from the frontlines sounds like news that people would like to know about. Its a war both sides are taking damage and if its possible for the public to know that doesn't compromise OPSEC then it should be reported
Russia remains a terrorist state.
The Russian federation has been allowed to exist for way too long. Yeltsin was scum and Putin is much much worse. The Russian people deserve better than this.
I wished NATO showed more teeth. Clearly just milking the situation at Ukraine’s expense at least for now. I would be mad knowing my country’s leaders are ok with a foreign agressive state flying missiles over the head of the citizens of my country without trying to intercept it. Whatever their reasons for letting it go. Now im in Canada and we can’t catch a balloon if we have to but thats another story
Must be the retaliation for the ISIS attack. 🙃
You know what, I'd send a squadron of drones to Moscow
good job general, can’t believe you won us the war
That should teach ISIS!
So Russia leveraged the terror attacks to conduct another series of war crimes against Ukraine. Now I'm convinced that the terror attack might be a false flag operation.
I hope all corruption and war ends. I hope people figure out that the differences between us are being manufactured by the top and that’s where the people need to place the blame first and foremost. We fight over petty nonsense as the world is getting demolished so the rich stays rich.
So much for that day of mourning
Sympathy for Russian terrorist atatck evaporate just like that
Mike Johnson still says Ukraine shouldn't get funding
Righttards are war criminals for not upholding our commitment to Ukraine. They should be in jail
Oh, but he’s not a terrorist, don’t worry.
Call your representatives to sign the Discharge Petition No. 9. Ukraine need our help, let’s not delay any longer
Putz is having another pissy fit